(00:00:00) Micron's 87% Margins, SK Hynix Debut & AMD's Packaging Crunch
(00:00:51) SK Hynix Nasdaq Debut
(00:01:46) AMD's CoWoS Packaging Crunch
(00:02:40) ASML EUV Export Investigation
(00:03:11) China's Chip Workarounds
(00:03:46) What to Watch Next

Memory margins at software scale, a trillion-dollar Nasdaq debut, and a packaging bottleneck that may be more consequential than any foundry node — this episode unpacks the structural shifts reordering the AI hardware supply chain.

Micron's Compute and Data Center unit posted 87% gross margins on $25 billion in quarterly revenue, backed by $22 billion in locked customer deposits. Hyperscalers are pre-paying to secure HBM supply they cannot afford to lose — a signal that this is a capacity constraint story, not a demand spike. SK Hynix took that same argument to public markets, debuting on Nasdaq at roughly a $1 trillion valuation after a sevenfold stock run in twelve months. The bull case requires AI capital expenditure to stay elevated through at least 2027; any deceleration compresses those margins fast.

AMD sits at the intersection of the packaging problem. With roughly 11% of TSMC's CoWoS capacity versus Nvidia's 60%, AMD must split a constrained allocation between Venice EPYC CPUs and MI400 AI GPUs simultaneously — products with different demand curves it cannot dynamically rebalance.

On the geopolitical front, US Commerce Secretary Lutnick pressed ASML executives over alleged covert EUV exports to China. ASML denies any machines reached Chinese customers, but the investigation's scope — covering components and knowledge transfers — keeps Dutch-US export control alignment in question. Meanwhile, China is responding on two fronts: a solid-state laser EUV light source that bypasses ASML's core patents, and three AI chip startups raising capital for 3D GPU stacking as an export-control workaround.

The structural question: if $22 billion in locked deposits is the new normal, memory suppliers have permanently repriced their leverage in the AI supply chain.

This episode includes AI-generated content.