Transcript
A (0:00)
Welcome to AICPA's Personal Financial Planning Podcast. This is Kerry Sinnott. On behalf of the AICPA Personal Financial Planning Division, the home for professional personal financial planners, we're happy to bring you insights from experts in tax, retirement estate investment, risk management, practice management and client relationships. Be sure to Visit us@aicpa.org Pfp to find more resources and tools designed to help you guide your client. And now, over to our guest.
B (0:39)
Thanks, Carrie. This is Marc Astrinos and I'm here with David Aransky. Today we'll be talking about Bitcoin. We did a few sessions last year that goes into much more detail on this topic and today will be a continuation of that. I think the last time we went into a lot of detail about just what bitcoin was, and I think we're going to hit on that again. But before we even get into Bitcoin, I think it's really important to just go over why people invest, whether that's Bitcoin or outside of Bitcoin to begin with. Any thoughts on that?
C (1:09)
Yeah. So before we even get to investing, let's think about savings. People you have to provide for your needs. And you can do that either by producing everything yourself as you need it, and before civilization, that's often how people did it, or you can save for future needs. So the only reason you would save is because you either really to deal with future uncertainty. Imagine if you're hunting and you're worried about getting sick or you're worried about maybe you aren't able to get out there, you want to save some of what you have to deal with that future uncertainty. Beyond that, you have investing, which is taking that savings and actually putting it into something you expect to grow in value so that you actually are deferring current consumption beyond just contingency planning, but to have greater purchasing power in the future, and that requires a certain level of innovation, a certain level of trust, a certain level of speculation within it. And whenever you're thinking about buying an investment, you are really saying, I would rather, rather than planning for me to produce everything I need in the future, I'm going to instead have something that I will be able to trade with the people that are producing what I need, I. E. Money. And you might buy, start or buy into a company that produces something so that you have. You receive cash, you receive some form of money, and then you use that money to acquire the goods and services that you need in the future. And so when we're thinking about that, we often think of Stocks and bonds. And there's almost really two levels of return. And so Jack Bogle had this idea of an investment return and a speculative return. The investment return on a bond is going to simply be the interest payments that you're getting. Any other change in valuation is expected return. You're expecting interest rates to go up or down, and then you might sell that bond early to potentially get a higher total return. With stocks, you have the earnings yield and the dividend yield, and then you also have a change in multiple where the underlying value of that stock goes up relative to its earnings. That's what he called the speculative return. And so there's often this idea that you need to have income producing assets or it's not a valid investment, when in reality many of these supposed income producing assets we have, we are also implicitly assuming some sort of speculative return. That's in some ways the whole idea behind total return investing. If you don't want to have any sort of speculative return, you should probably only spend your interest in dividends, which right now interest rates are higher, but the dividend yield on stocks is very low. And so most people are planning to actually sell some of their shares of stock during retirement. But to fund their retirement, and in order to have your financial plan work out, you have to believe that there will be demand for those shares of stock, that someone will buy those for you at a higher price than what you bought them for today. Which sounds very similar to the greater fool theory that's often put upon things like gold and bitcoin.
