AICPA Town Hall Series: Economic Update & 2026 Predictions

Date: December 18, 2025
Host: AICPA & CIMA
Featured Guest: Marci Rossell (Economist)
Key Participants: Eric Asgeirsson (President/CEO, CPA.com), Lisa Simpson, Mark Peterson, Melanie Lauridsen, Paul Perry

Episode Overview

This episode of the AICPA Town Hall closes out 2025 with a comprehensive economic update, reflections on a transformative year for artificial intelligence (AI), regulatory and tax developments, and professional guidance for the accounting industry. Economist Marci Rossell provides an in-depth review of 2025’s most unexpected trends while forecasting key economic drivers and challenges for 2026. The panel also covers major legislative updates, technical IRS guidance, cybersecurity best practices, and what to expect in the coming year.

Main Segments & Timestamps

1. Reflections and AI as Person of the Year (00:10–06:39)
2. Economic Update: 2025—The Recession That Wasn’t (06:39–09:52)
3. 2026 Outlook: Growth, AI, & Labor Market Changes (09:52–22:36)
4. DC and Regulatory Update (23:07–34:58)
5. Tax, IRS, and Technical Updates (35:17–43:09)
6. Cybersecurity for CPAs: The Human Factor (43:26–54:15)
7. Open Forum: Audience Q&A (54:15–61:10)

1. Reflections & AI as Person of the Year

Eric Asgeirsson and Lisa Simpson reflect on the year's highlights and the centrality of AI in accounting and broader business.

Key Discussion Points

• AI’s Shift from Hype to Reality

  • "This is really when gen AI moved from experimentation to reality. It crossed the chasm." – Eric Asgeirsson [02:29]
  • AI was discussed in every one of 50+ sessions at Digital CPA.

• The Core Shift: Value Creation, Not Just Efficiency

  • Productivity gains are massive, especially in tax research, audit, and advisory.
  • AI being used both by top firms (e.g., Deloitte) and small teams—technology as an equalizer.

• Investment & Industry Change

  • "Billions of dollars going into firms and these tech solutions… ongoing business evolution." – Eric Asgeirsson [03:09]

• Open Question

  • Are firms moving from compliance to value creation via AI? Many are still grappling with that transition.

2. Economic Update: 2025—The Recession That Wasn’t

Guest: Marci Rossell (Economist)

Key Insights

• Expected Recession Never Arrived

  • "2025 was the year of the recession that simply wasn’t. Everyone kept expecting a recession. It never occurred." – Marci Rossell [06:39]
  • Tariffs ("Liberation Day tariffs") and government shutdown were expected to be recessionary but were not.
  • Tariffs were telegraphed and thus anticipated; not a large negative shock (unlike COVID-19 or the 2008 crisis).

• Tariffs: Inflationary, Not Recessionary

  • They caused some inflation and are "not great for long-term growth," but predicted AI-driven growth is expected to outweigh these negatives.

• Government Shutdowns

  • "Historically, government shutdowns tend to just move economic activity into the next quarter." [08:17]

3. 2026 Outlook: Growth, AI, & Labor Market Changes

Key Themes

• Regional & Sector Disparities

  • "Half of the GDP growth [in 2025] was coming from the build-out in AI data center capabilities. That is not job creating." – Marci Rossell [09:52]
  • Growth heavily centered in NY and CA, with other regions struggling to adapt.

• Federal Reserve Dilemma

  • The Fed cut short-term rates, but unemployment ticks up—especially among youth.
  • AI’s ambiguous impact: Is it a labor substitute or complement?

• AI & Labor Markets: “The Tractor or the Spreadsheet?”

  • For some jobs, AI is a replacement ("like the tractor was for agriculture"—e.g., entry-level programming jobs).
  • For others, AI is a productivity multiplier ("like the spreadsheet was for accounting").
  • "The spreadsheet…made accountants much more productive and basically turned all of us into some kind of accountant in some ways." – Marci Rossell [13:24]

• Trust in AI: A New Industry

  • "The trust issue is going to be enormous…entire categories of jobs being created simply around that last little bit of how can we convince you to trust this AI?" – Marci Rossell [17:13]

• Bubble or Boom?

  • "Using the bubble analogy for AI, I don't think is [right]…What I think we will see is something that looks very much like the dot-com boom and bust…It will clear the capital market environment for the new next round of small firms and innovation.” – Marci Rossell [18:15]
  • Investments being made under optimistic AI timelines; corrections possible if timelines slip.

• The “Last Inch”: Human + AI

  • "With AI, I think the last inch is the human to human interaction, the closeness that people will expect in the areas where AI is going to make the biggest difference." – Marci Rossell [21:48]

4. DC and Regulatory Update

With Mark Peterson

2025 in Review

• New Administration & Executive Orders

  • Extensive use of executive powers: tariffs, immigration, regulatory reforms.
  • "What this administration did is really relied on executive powers…on issues like tariffs, global mobility, immigration…redesign of government agencies." – Mark Peterson [25:00]

• Key Wins for the Profession

  • SALT PTET preserved, key business deductions protected.
  • Disaster relief provisions for IRS response, crypto regulation advancements.

Current & Emerging Regulatory Issues

• Federal Loan Caps & Accounting Profession

  • Dept. of Ed failed to classify accounting as a "profession" for higher loan caps; AICPA opposing.

• AI Regulation

  • Executive order blocks states from regulating AI independently; federal focus on competition with China.

• Cannabis

  • Executive order to reschedule (not deschedule) cannabis, possibly easing banking and tax complications.

• Possible Early 2026 Government Shutdown

  • Funding runs out end of January; risk of IRS/filing season disruption.

5. Tax, IRS, and Technical Updates

With Melanie Lauridsen

Highlights

• Cannabis Rescheduling

  • Move from Schedule 1 to 3 may allow deductions at the federal level, but "each state has their own rules…that still needs to be followed." [35:17]
  • AICPA advocating for retroactive application and penalty relief during transition.

• IRS and Compliance

  • New IRS contact info for collections (Publication 4235).
  • USPS changes postmark policy—potential delays for tax filings.
    • "You can request a manual postmark at the counter or use certified mail." [36:20]

• HSA Eligibility Expanded

  • New planning opportunities from HR1; further guidance pending.

• IRS Criminal Investigations

  • $10.6 billion in financial crimes identified, 16% increase from prior year, with tax fraud cases soaring.

• Form 1099-K Updates, Digital Asset Guidance

  • New FAQs out; digital asset compliance to be watched closely.

• BOI (Beneficial Ownership Information)

  • Recent court case upholds constitutionality; status quo remains.

• Advocacy & Resource Updates

  • Digital asset practice guides released.
  • Advocacy efforts yield new compliance supplements.
  • Organizers/checklists for 2026 delayed, but due by Jan 9, 2026.

6. Cybersecurity for CPAs: The Human Factor

With Paul Perry & Lisa Simpson

Core Messages

• WISP (Written Information Security Plan) Required

  • "For the tax practitioners and accounting firms listening in, 4557 is a really good summary of some really good cybersecurity controls. Again, a requirement if you need help… IRS also has another publication, 5708, which is a template." – Paul Perry [44:34]

• Biggest Risk: Human Behavior

  • "Society’s cyber problem is people… it's our use, or misuse, of that technology that creates so many issues." – Paul Perry [47:37]
  • Key risks: Present bias, optimism bias (“it won’t happen to me”), system one thinking (gut reactions), social proof dangers, and lack of understanding.

• Training is Essential

  • "It's not going to happen unless you have constant, consistent training."
  • On pushback for multi-factor authentication: "The inconvenience of five seconds…versus the inconvenience of trying to get my life back over a year and a half."

• Change Mentality: Cybersecurity as Revenue Protection

  • "Let's stop thinking of cybersecurity…as an expense, and let's think of it as a revenue protector." [50:43]

• Recommended Resources

  • AICPA’s 21 Cybersecurity Questions for Small Firms
  • Templates for WISP from IRS and AICPA

7. Open Forum: Key Q&A & Closing Insights

Audience questions answered by experts.

Key Exchanges

• Stablecoins & Treasuries

  • "They're a little bit like a money market fund…unlike bitcoin, stablecoins have real assets, particularly short-term Treasuries…creates demand for short-term Treasuries which is going to put downward pressure on short-term interest rates." – Marci Rossell [54:45]
  • Long-term risks are untested; will be challenged in a future financial crisis.

• Paper Checks for Tax Payments

  • "Until we get that guidance, paper checks are absolutely acceptable for the IRS. And now they have said they are going to release that guidance right before the start of the filing season." – Melanie Lauridsen [57:35]

• Postmark Date Changes

  • "The postmark is no longer the date they receive it but just the date of showing they had that letter…at that time." [38:18]

Closing Remarks

• Resources highlighted: 2025 benchmarking study, Audit Transformation Report, and AI guidance from Digital CPA.
• Call for audit practitioners to provide input on technology in audits.
• Gratitude for audience engagement and preview of more “future-facing” Town Halls in 2026.

Notable Quotes

“2025 was the year of the recession that simply wasn’t. Everyone kept expecting a recession. It never occurred.”
— Marci Rossell [06:39]

“For some jobs, AI is going to be like the tractor was in agriculture; for others, it’s like the spreadsheet in this industry.”
— Marci Rossell [13:24]

“Let’s stop thinking of cybersecurity and IT as an expense, and let’s think of it as a revenue protector.”
— Paul Perry [50:43]

“The trust issue is going to be enormous…entire categories of jobs being created simply around that last little bit of how can we convince you to trust this AI?”
— Marci Rossell [17:13]

Actionable Resources

• Cybersecurity:

  • IRS Publication 4557 & 5708 (WISP templates)
  • AICPA’s 21 Cybersecurity Questions for Small Firms

• Technical Updates:

  • IRS Publication 4235 (Collections contact)
  • Digital Asset Practice Guides (AICPA site)
  • Links to all guidance and new legislation (summarized by Melanie Lauridsen)

Final Thoughts

This episode provided a clear-eyed look at the economic, regulatory, and technological changes shaping the accounting industry. The evolution of AI, new legislation, shifts in tax policy, and the need for robust cybersecurity are front and center for 2026. Above all, trust, adaptability, and proactive engagement—both with technology and policy—are essential for firms and their clients in the year ahead.