
Guest Co-Host Oscar Munoz, Guest: Michael Huerta,…
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I'm Scott McCartney and I'm still here at Podcast Central, which is kind of saying something given all the change we experienced last week. I'm joined this week by the unflappable Oscar Munoz and happy to report that we've had no executive changes, no cabinet level firings, no runaway podcast price increases. Welcome back in a crazy week. Welcome back, Oscar.
C
Oh, thank you. Good to be back. Yeah. You always need a scorecard in this industry, right? It's always been the changes, but the changes to Delta, Homeland security, oil prices, war, you name it. It's always part of our, our conversations. I'm also looking forward to the conversation that we're going to have that you had with Michael, the former FAA administrator who is still very much involved in airline service. And he is, I believe he's a director at Delta, but also new ventures like Joby Aircraft. And as you know, as many know, I'm an investor and a board at Archer. And so, you know, between him and so many other people, you know, we've had such a front row seat, you included, to some of the toughest aviation policy changes that we've had in decades that are now really coming up. And, and this concept of boy, as you know, me and my emotion around air traffic control and the things we've done around that. But, but now it's even more complicated because you add that to all the new entrants, right? Drones, the evtol like Joby and Archer, a system that was designed primarily for airlines and not that well designed as we know now. It has a lot more users and that's why voices like Michael's are so important right now and hopefully he can move us forward. But boy, it's been decades, right, since we've been talking about this.
B
Yes, yes, absolutely. He's got some really important insights about the difficulty of modernizing, but also how to pay for it and who should pay for it and all those new things you're talking about. One of the questions is, well, are they going to pay for the services that they're going to get from air traffic control? He raises the point of commercial space launches when decades ago when the ticket tax and the fuel tax were created to have users pay for the system. Nobody ever envisioned big chunks of airspace being taken up by commercial space launches. But that's happening with regularity, and those guys aren't paying for FAA services. So a lot of issues to think about. I think it's a really important conversation, and I think listeners will really enjoy it. I hope policymakers listen as well, because they're just some really crucial issues that need to get worked out. As the former administrator, he's got great insights into it.
C
I couldn't agree with you more. We're going through the certification processes like Joby with this thing, and. And this is where innovation meets regulation. And getting that balance right is going to help us because that's what's precluded us from before.
B
Right.
C
We're doing all the right things from a safety perspective, but the innovation really has to push it forward at some point in time. So it'll be interesting.
B
Yeah. Yeah. All right. In the news this week, Oscar, I'm not quite sure where to begin, but since we are Airlines Confidential, let's start with the recession in airline stocks and the brutal jump in oil prices. A barrel of oil spiked above $100 as of Monday morning. At the beginning of the year, it was $57. Airline stocks naturally got hit hard last week, and we're recording this early Monday morning. I think the it's gonna be a tough week ahead. Last week, Delta lost 10% of its value. United 13%, American 14%, Southwest almost 16%, and Frontier more than 18%. And, you know, it just may get uglier. Airlines really don't hedge fuel prices anymore, nor do they do much buying in advance. So this will hit hard. If oil stays above $100 a barrel, for example, and fuel is roughly 20% of its airline's costs, then each airline's cost suddenly increased roughly 8% or 8 to 10%. Again, that's assuming that this lasts. We just don't know. But a jump like that in costs could, for many airlines, wipe out profits for the quarter or for the year, if it lasts. I think there's also a question about Spirit's reorganization plan, which is certain, not built around $100 a barrel of oil. Just consider the net profit margins at United and Delta. They were roughly 7% or so last year, and those are the best Performers. So this is really serious. You could take this further, of course, and say, if the war weakens the global economy by creating higher inflation, with higher oil prices and shortages, we could really see weakness in air travel. And by the way, we saw weak US Economic numbers on Friday in terms of the jobs market. The US economy lost 92,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate increased. That can affect travel. So maybe suddenly the outlook for earnings doesn't quite look so great for airlines. Just a couple weeks ago, we were talking about a record year. Once again, an event outside of their control may well throw airlines into turbulence this year. So the question, Oscar, is this. Could higher oil prices wipe out profits for airlines in 2026? And how do you think this is all going to affect the industry?
C
Oh, boy. I mean, well, as you know, fuel has always been the industry's wild card. As airlines, we can control low labor productivity, fleet decision, scheduling, all those things, but that's the one variable that can change overnight. In fact, I think you and I have talked about the story. Back when Russia invaded Ukraine, the United budget plan for the year literally lost a billion dollars in 30 minutes. Right? That's the impact of this. This is not just on Aspen event. So. But on the positive side, your question is, you know, is the market overreacting? Well, I also play in the software space, and you talk about 10 to 15% drop in stock price. They're experiencing 50 to 60 to 70%. So I'm living this weird, ironic world where for so long I looked at the software companies and their incredible value creation while we managed the stuff we could do in the airline, and now it was a bit reversed. And then you get hit with this. So now I'm playing. I'm playing on a negative side of both of these things. But I think the good news, if I'm always that way, is that versus 20 years ago, the airlines are structurally stronger, for lack of a better term. Balance sheets are healthier for most. Capacity discipline, I think, has been much better. And I think the sophistication on revenue management is pretty superb. So could a sustained 90 or $100 oil price hurt profits 100%? Absolutely. But I don't think it automatically puts the industry back into the fragile state that we saw in previous decade. The bigger risk, and you kind of mention it, it's the second order effect, right? Higher energy prices slow the economy. I mean, airlines can handle fuel better than they can handle a sudden drop in demand. And so when investors react quickly to oil spikes, I understand it, but I Think they are better equipped and fuel is a volatile thing. It'll come back again. So I'm still bullish to a degree, but boy, it's hard to live that. And it's one of the things that frankly I do not miss.
B
Yeah, that's a great point about the resilience and this is not the first rodeo for him. So yeah, great point.
C
So in more personnel news, the Secretary of Homeland Security, Christine Ohm was fired and almost or replaced or moved on. Not sure. It's always being spun a certain way. But we know that the president nominated Senator Mark Wayne Mullen of Oklahoma to replace her. For airlines, the position is incredibly important because TSA and Customs and Border cbp that are so vital to us moving people through airports, live inside Homeland Security now. It's a crucial time too, since TSA workers are only getting a fraction of their pay for now. They'll get back pay when Homeland Security gets funded by Congress for the year. But for now, basically again, showing up for work and not getting the regular paycheck they need to pay rent by groceries and everything else, government continuity really matters. And these agencies are so deeply embedded into the daily operation of our aviation system. For me, when employees are working without pay or less pay during these funding gaps and it's not just a political issue, I mean it becomes an operational issue for us. And these are people that are responsible for our safety and security. So again, it's saying the obvious, but the system works best when they're supported and focused on the job and not on their paycheck and how they're going to pay their rent, et cetera. So it'll be very interesting to see how the new leadership approaches because we don't know much about him and what his views on all of the airport security or trusted traveler programs and working on with airlines. So stay tuned on that.
B
Yeah, definitely. And you know, over, over the weekend Southwest got, got hit hard. Houston Airport had three and four hour waits for, for TSA processing getting through checkpoints. My understanding in Houston, start of spring break. So big crowds at the airport and clearly a lack of TSA screeners showing up now. So then have may have decided, hey it spring break, I gotta stay home, take care of my kids because I'm not getting paid. There were also really long lines in New Orleans. I think this is really serious. Could well spread especially as we go through the spring break season of large crowds and TSA workers. This has been going on since February 14th. So we're closing in on a month without the Regular paycheck. And that's tough. That is really tough for these folks. The other big personnel headlines of the week were changes at Delta Airlines triggered by the retirement of President Glenn Howenstein. Delta named Peter Carter as its new president. Carter has been Delta's chief Legal officer and most recently chief External Affairs Officer, managing not only legal, but also international government affairs, sustainability and other initiatives. This reminds me a bit of what you had at United, Oscar, with Bret Hart serving as president, as he still does. Hart and Carter are lawyers who took on more and more and more beyond the legal department. The biggest news, I think, at Delta is that the Chief Financial Officer, Dan Janke, will move to be Chief Operating officer. I had heard from Delta people that if something happened to CEO Ed Bastian and Glenn Howenstein was gone, Janky would be the guy that Delta would probably turn to as CEO. He's a GE guy, almost 30 years at GE. He's been at Delta less than five years. Came in as CFO. So this move is so interesting because it really broadens his airline experience big time. Running the operation is great preparation for a bigger role for Janky at Delta. I just think that's fascinating. With the move, John Lauder, the current Chief of Operations and President of Delta Tech Ops, will retire. Lauder was mostly a maintenance guy in his 30 year career at Delta. Curious to me, one thing is that he's the youngest of the bunch that we're talking about and he's the one retiring. Lauder is 55 years old, according to Morningstar Research, and his undergraduate College graduation in 1993. Delta didn't include his age in its announcements, only that he had more than a 30 year career with Delta. Hey, any of us can be burned out and want to retire at 55 and good for him if that's what he wants to do. But it looks to me a bit like water is being pushed out. By the way, Janky's 57 and Carter is 62. Those ages were included in the Delta Communications bottom line. Delta seems well set for the future. The potential heir apparent is getting operations seasoning. The experienced wise man moves into the president's role and CEO Ed Bastian, who's 68, says he's not going anywhere. What I do wonder most, however, is is how Delta is going to fare without the brilliant strategy and commercial execution of Glenn Howenstein. Glenn was the best at what he did and I do think his retirement is a huge loss for Delta.
C
No question. Glenn is literally one of the great commercial strategies our industry has seen and Certainly Delta's performance during his tenure speak to that. I always talk about. In my experience, there's literally less than a handful of people that have that ability to comprehend the very complex process of, you know, revenue management, scheduling, all that. It's just. And he was, he is one of the best and he will clearly be missed. And I know they have some good people over there. So we'll. Interesting see, interesting to see how, how that plays out. You know, you mentioned about the ages.
B
I don't know.
C
You know, I wouldn't read too much into it. Airline careers are long and intense and sometimes people just decide it's time to enjoy life a little, a little earlier. And you know, with all the changes made, I mean, John's probably not seeing much of a possibility there. So I'm not sure on that. You know, what I do find interesting is that this entire set of moves that have been planned have been rumored. So there was literally no surprise to anyone necessarily. But it's classic leadership development, right? Given potential future CEOs, broader operational exposures. In fact, from a very personal perspective, moving CFOs into operations, I think is a very, very smart preparation if somebody's
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doing
C
that at CSX and as a former CEO, so. And I think what they're doing is great. You're right. They're very well set. Succession is everything. And I know all the other airlines are trying to do the same because, you know, I know when I took over United, we had had like eight CEOs in the previous decade or some number like that. And I don't care where you studied or what you read, that is never a good thing. So good. Congratulations to all that. I hear great things about Dan Janky and so this operations program will really round them out and hopefully they have a successor for the future.
B
Yeah, yeah, very interesting. All right, time now to thank our sponsors who make this podcast possible. We want to thank Infinity Flight Academy, the leader in cadet academy training programs, for helping us bring the podcast to you. Whether you're looking to build a custom pipeline or strengthen your existing cadet program, Infinity Flight Academy delivers consistent airline ready results. And for those of you listening, you've always dreamed of flying, do it. Or if you know somebody who has dreamed of flying. Infinity Flight has trained thousands of students, many now flying for major airlines around the world. Learn more@infinityflight.com Infinity Flight Academy, where future airline pilots take off and thanks to Cirium. Cirium offers the most accurate and precise data and analytics to enable airlines to optimize planning, operations and passenger services. The right intelligence drives operational efficiencies, enables you to predict market shifts, and helps airlines respond quickly to maximize revenue, manage costs and seize commercial opportunity. Visit cirium.com for more. And I would add thanks to Cirium for providing the world numbers twice a day on the Middle east shutdown. It's been very important and very important for all reporters out there covering it. And Cirium has been the one providing accurate information about the impact that the war has had on air travel.
C
Yeah, I saw that.
D
Thanks indeed.
C
In addition, we want to thank Ontario International Airport, which is celebrating a decade of local control. Thanks to public support, the local community reclaimed ont, revived it as a vital gateway in Southern California and ensured the airport is ready to soar even higher. And in the years to come, visit flyontario.com 10 to learn the story and find out how you can join the year long celebration of how a decade of local control has turned ONT into one of California's fastest growing and most economical airports. And then, thanks to our newest sponsor, someone that's close to our heart, Scott the Executive MBA in Aviation at the University of Colorado Denver. The Executive MBA in Aviation at CU Denver is the first degree of its kind in the world, top by industry experts like Scott McCartney and designed for
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ambitious leaders from across the like Oscar Munoz.
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With classes located at Denver International and week long residences in D.C. and at airports around the world, students experience a hybrid flexible course structure that balances in person and online classes without career interruption. So go to business ucdenver.edu to learn more. And congrats to you Scott as you finish up your first term as a professor in the class and great and rave reviews from the current cohort we have.
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It has just been a delight. The students are incredible, the interest, the whole program has just been really exciting and I really do think it will be impactful for the industry to have these future leaders come in with such great grounding in aviation. All right, let's turn to my conversation with former FAA Administrator Michael Huerta. I'm thrilled to welcome the Honorable Michael Huerta back to Airlines Confidential. Michael was on the podcast more than four years ago and it's an especially important time to reconnect. As I'm sure Most listeners remember, Mr. Huerta was the head of the Federal aviation Administration for five years from 2013 to 2018. He was Deputy Administrator and Acting Administrator for two and a half years. Before that, Michael had a long career in aviation and transportation before becoming the FAA administrator. He was on the tech side running Affiliated Computer Services, transportation business. He's been a vice president at Lockheed Martin. He was chief of staff in the Department of Transportation for a time. He's been the executive director of the Port of San Francisco and he's currently a consultant in transportation technology and airspace, as well as serving on the boards of Delta Airlines, Vera Mobility, the Mitre Corp. And Joby Aviation. Michael's a graduate of the University of California, Riverside, and has a master's degree in Public affairs from Princeton University, which, by the way, Michael, is a degree near and dear to my heart. My oldest daughter has the same degree and is doing good work with it. So. Welcome back to Airlines Confidential. Great to talk to you.
D
Well, it's great to talk with you and thanks for having me back.
B
When you and Ben talked, he started out asking you about your background and what we now affectionately call the Baldanza question, which is basically, how did you get into this crazy business? So since you've already done that, I thought I'd ask one of my sort of Baldanza questions. I have always been interested in the FAA administrator's role, just in terms of what's it like running such a huge, vitally important agency. You came to it with such diverse background. You know, toll systems on the New Jersey Turnpike to the FAA administrator's role. It's a big bureaucracy, seems so hard to move. It has, has safety roles and also service provider roles. So you're a regulator and a business. So when you're the administrator, are you just trying to drink out of a fire hose or is it more manageable than we might think?
D
Well, the drinking out of a fire hose is certainly the case when you first get there, but it really is a terrific agency. It's, as you point out, a very large agency and a very important agency. But it has an incredibly well educated and well experienced technical staff and it's a great organization to work for. There are a lot of people who work across our federal government and they work in different agencies, whether it's Commerce Department, epa, State Department and others. And if you ask a lot of people who work in any of those agencies where they work, often they will say, I work for the government. And the conversation will go from there. That's not the way it is with people who work at the faa. If you ask anyone who works at the FAA where they work, they will say, I work for the faa. And it's interesting. There is a real commitment to the aviation industry among the people who work there. There are a number of reasons for that, I think. One is the clarity of mission on any given day. You know, we're dealing with up to 50,000 controlled flights a day in the national airspace system. And there are always things that are getting thrown at you, whether it's weather or there might be, you know, some sort of an irregular operation caused on the company side by a major airline. There are strange things that might be happening in airspace due to a flock of birds or any of those sort of things. And that's just all part of it.
B
Yeah.
D
You know, when I first got there, one of our senior executives made this comment to me, which stuck with me throughout my entire tenure there. And she put it this way. We have a very simple performance measure. At the end of the day, we want to see the same number of landings as takeoffs.
B
Yes.
D
And every day it starts all over again. And so, you know that. And when you think about it that way, you know, what it really points out is you need to be nimble, you need to be flexible. And sometimes it means that you're a little too tactically focused. You, how am I going to get through this day? And one of the challenges that you have is thinking about where all of this is going over the long term. But it's. I mean, I very much enjoyed my tenure there, you know. You know, when you think of government agencies, you know, we look at the government and we do, there are essentially three things we want from the government. One is we want the government to keep us safe. That's the regulatory side of the faa. We look for the government to fund critical investments that are necessary for us as a country that might be, you know, through grant programs like our airport program. And then the government operates a whole lot of critical systems that are essential to our day to day life, whether it's the weather service or in the FAA's case, the air traffic system. But you know, the FAA is one of the few places where we do all, all three of those things. And that's what I think makes it such an interesting place and such a fun place and why the team is so motivated to do what they do each and every day.
B
So interesting. Yeah, yeah. So in the big picture realm, you and other administrators work very hard at modernizing the faa, the next gen program. You made some progress in new platforms for enroute and to terminal control and satellite ads B technology. But my impression is we aren't making full use of that, the stuff you got in, and some of that may be even out of date now. Modernization has proven to be such a difficult task. I'm curious of your view of it. Now, looking back a bit, why is it so difficult to modernize air traffic control?
D
It's a very good question. It's a many faceted answer. But I think that one of the challenges is that the FAA has a lot of different stakeholders who want a lot of different things. You know, yes, there are the commercial airlines, yes, there are the private pilots, but also, you know, the military makes a lot of use of our national airspace system each and every day. And they all have different needs, they have different challenges, they have different things that they would like to see. And so you're responding to a whole lot of different constituencies. That's one thing. The other thing is that because you have these different stakeholders, they all have very specific things that they are interested in, are concerned about potentially losing or which they might rely on, which are extremely important to them and their sector, but which may be less important to other users of the system. And so, you know, you have this complexity of the user base with all these different needs and wants that you have to consider. I think with this all comes down to though, is the FAA has a significant funding challenge when it comes to making these long term investments. Most of these are funded out of a part of the FAA budget that's called facilities and equipment. And that has been, you know, until recently, largely flat at about $3 billion a year. And it is out of that that the FAA has had to pay for modernization of the system, maintenance of the old stuff and a whole host of other activities. And so, you know, you think about this for so long, you know, it's been largely flat, essentially means that it's been declining at in real turf at the same time that the agency is being asked to do more.
B
Yeah.
D
And so you have this more with less kind of mindset that the agencies has had to adapt in order to just keep the system running. And then you also have, in addition to just the absolute level of funding, the predictability of funding. You know, as you pointed out in the introduction, I was in the agency for seven and a half years. We never began a fiscal year with our budget in place.
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Yeah.
D
During that period of time.
B
Yeah.
D
You know, whether it was a continuing resolution, a short term extension, or any of a number of factors as Congress was debating our authorization or appropriation. You know, it's hard to plan if you're unclear where you're going to end up at the end of the year with what your funding levels are. And so, you know, I think the agency, in spite of that, has done a great job. But this funding uncertainty has been this constant that has gone on for a very, very long time. And I think that that's been a challenge.
B
And it's always seemed to me that's particularly infuriating. I mean, you're beholden to the whims of Congress, but the money is there, right? I mean, every traveler is paying a ticket tax that goes into the aviation trust fund that is supposed to fund this stuff. So it's not like they have to come up with new dollars. The dollars are sitting there.
D
Yeah, there is a general fund subsidy. It's a relatively small piece of the budget. And frankly, I often said as administrator, I'd give that up in a minute if it could get us out of the annual appropriations process. Because you're right. I mean, it is funded from a trust fund. And so I think there is a real question of why should it be subject to annual appropriations? That doesn't make a whole lot of sense because essentially what you have, for the most part, is a user paid system. But then you also have some challenges in terms of the who pays and who benefits question. The last time the trust fund was updated was in the mid-1990s. And what you have is a situ. There are four basic components of funds coming into the trust fund. By far the biggest piece is airline ticket taxes that you and I pay off on our airline tickets that go into the trust fund. The second largest are fuel taxes that everyone who buys aviation fuels pays. And so that is not only the airlines, but that's also business aviation, general aviation, and others. Third component are registration fees. Those are very low, but it's kind of the aviation equivalent of registering your car annually with the dmv.
B
Yeah.
D
And then the fourth are overflight fees that are paid by, by those that are transiting US Airspace but not landing or taking off from here. Now, that hasn't been adjusted since 1995, and a few things have changed since then. You know, first of all, think of commercial space launches. You know, in the mid-1990s, those were very, very rare. Now they've become routine. The result in significant cost to the aviation system in terms of airspace closures, redirections, and all of that sort of stuff to accommodate the launch. But that industry pays nothing into the trust fund.
B
Oh, interesting. Yeah.
D
You know, likewise, these emerging entrants, whether it's drones or the soon to be, you know, advanced air mobility industry, you know, they, under the current structure, since they're not using traditional aviation fuels, they would not be paying into the trust fund as well, you know, so I think that, you know, in addition to looking at this question of how the funds get allocated, it's also time for us to look at where is the industry going and who's paying into the trust fund to ensure that all the users are contributing in some way. Now, that's not to say that I feel that everyone needs to pay whatever their cost is. The system does have significant cross subsidies today. The airlines, without question, airline passengers pay the lion's share of the cost. And I'm fine with cross subsidies of some form, but I think that everyone who uses the system should pay something.
B
Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely, absolutely. So with that, and that's, that's great insight, I really appreciate that. I'm curious whether you would be a proponent now of some sort of split within the FAA separating the safety oversight from the service provider. And maybe there's a split in funding that goes with that or the safety oversight. Is general fund and service provider really, is user paid? I don't know. But we talk about privatization of air traffic control services, but it simply could be a semi private government agency with the ability to borrow money, for example, to smooth out that funding uncertainty that you talk about and fund multi year projects. What do you think? Is there any wisdom in that?
D
Well, I wouldn't rule it out, but I think it's probably not a good idea to start with the structure and then figure out how you're going to solve the problem. Because we've had three different runs at that or, you know, where there have been different proposals to, you know, separate air traffic from the broader agency regulatory oversight.
B
Sure. It goes back to Al Gore.
D
Exactly.
B
Yeah.
D
And I mean, the proponents have talked about, you know, there is an inherent conflict between being both a regulator and an operator. I don't think that's really an issue because I think that, you know, there is a clear separation of those functions within these faa. But I think the problem with focusing on the structure first is that then what everyone's fighting over is how do I ensure that my voice gets heard. That's what we saw the last time around where there was a huge concern on the part of general aviation that they would be outvoted by the airlines, that somehow that would mean they would lose access to the system. You know, and right now, you know, this, you know, the general aviation community is, is really unique to the US it's the majority of operations we have in the system. And that what AOPA calls the freedom to fly is something that is, I think makes US Aviation very Special. And so, you know, you want to know, make sure that all of those voices get heard. I think it's better to start with what's the problem we're trying to solve. And the problem we're trying to solve is a funding problem. How do we ensure that we have the appropriate levels of funding, that we have the funding certainty. And as you point out, there are ways that you can do that, both within government, through, you know, some sort of an independent agency structure as well as outside of government. But we need to address the question of who pays and what their contributions are and have these intentional conversations about what are the needs and how are we going to pay for them. Now, out of that conversation, a structure might emerge that in order to ensure that we can do this consistently and efficiently, we have to change the structure. But then we know why we're changing it.
B
Yeah.
D
And we know what we're trying to accomplish while we're changing it. And we have already dealt with the biggest challenge, which is what do we need to pay for and what are the sources that we have to pay for it. And then I think what we would see is the industry could come together around a certain structure as opposed to what's happened in the past where the structural conversation has devolved into who are winners and who are losers, but nobody's talked about how are we going to solve the big problem that we need, which is ensuring that there are resources to invest in the system that we all need.
B
Yeah, yeah. Fascinating. Yeah, yeah. The one thing I really think, though, is my concern, and this kind of gets to my next question, but without changing the structure, we keep doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome. And it's a little bit of the definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over again, and we're not getting the different outcome. So the current administration has set a three year schedule for major progress. Do you think that's realistic in any way? Are you optimistic that we'll finally catch up to the rest of the industrialized world in terms of modernization?
D
Well, I think we can get a lot done in three years. And I really do have to commend the administration for putting some much needed resources toward modernization. I mean, when I was administrator, I would have loved to have had 12 and a half billion dollars to spend on investments in the new system. What I think the challenge is is a lot of the focus and it needs to be is on fixing what's not working. We all, you know, have heard about the challenges with the telecom infrastructure around Newark and The outages associated with that, replacing copper with fiber and all of those things, that's incredibly important. However, what I don't want to get to is a situation where what we have is a newer version of what we already have today, where what we're not doing is taking advantage of what more advanced technology would enable and how we might rethink how we handle the air traffic system down the road. You know, a couple of examples, and we have made some steps in this area. I mean, like one of the basic principles of NextGen has been that you go from a system which is centered on the controller of the air traffic control to air traffic management, which is the shared responsibility between the users of the system and the controllers in the system. And this is enabled by technologies like ADS B out and ADS B in, you know, which we've made some investments in, but you know, which continued investments need to be made. The new technology enables us to do a whole lot more with data, which would decrease our reliance on voice communication. And as we all know, voice communication can be incredibly inefficient. And there are opportunities for errors. You know, so called hear back, read back, you know, errors where someone might think they heard something, but then they read it back and it's something different. And you have to be able to catch all of that. But if you're doing a lot of that with better data integration between instructions and the flight management systems of aircraft and so forth, you know, you're introducing another level of safety. And I think that it is really important that as an industry and as an agency, the FAA really needs to be focusing the conversation around what do we need the system to do in the future. And that's just as important, if not more important, as ensuring that we're building the resiliency in the system to ensure that we don't have the outages and the other challenges that they've been dealing with. So your question is, is three years enough time? Three years is enough time to make significant progress. But I don't think that we should look at this through the lens of at the end of three years, we declare victory and go on and do do something else, right?
B
Yeah.
D
I think we need to recognize that technology will continue to march on, there will be continued evolutions, and we as an industry need to adapt to each of those and take advantage of what's enabled by the new technology that we're investing in.
B
And do you have confidence that we're going to get the system we need?
D
I'm cautiously optimistic, but I think it really depends on a willingness on the part of the industry and our leadership in government to have some hard conversations. For example, there has been a lot of conversation about a common automation platform where we take the automation platform used by controllers in the enroute environment and the terminal environment today, they're two distinct platforms, and come up with a common platform that we can use across the entire system. Makes a lot of sense, but you have to pair that up with the conversation about what is the facility footprint we need to operate that. You know, today we have over 20 en route centers. I don't think there's anyone on the planet that thinks we need 20.
B
Right. But then, but then Congressman so and so doesn't want to lose the center in his district.
D
Exactly.
B
Yeah.
D
All of them were built around the same time. They all have significant physical plant requirements as well as the technology in them. And so, you know, if you're going to consolidate, that raises a whole lot of really tough questions. And DoD has gone through this, through the base closure commissions and what have you, but I think we need a similar effort as it relates to consolidation of this footprint. And the agency has shown that it is able to get efficiency out of consolidated systems. We've done it. On the TRACON side, you know what a lot of people think of as approach control. Well, we have these large consolidated facilities that handle airports in Northern and Southern California or, you know, other parts of the country where, you know, Potomac is another one, where rather than having individual Approach control or TRACON facilities for every airport, you consolidate them into a common facility which enables you to leverage just the efficiencies of a shared workforce, shared technology infrastructure and everything that goes with that. And so we do have a history of being able to do it, but we have to have the political will and the technical focus to enable us to do this in a way that makes sense down the road. And that's hard to accomplish in the short term, but I think that everyone needs to focus on getting this done for the long term.
B
That's just really helpful. I think that's really smart stuff. Thank you. So let's switch gears a little bit. I'm really curious to ask you about Joby Aviation because you're a board member there. Joby has an electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and air taxi, four passengers, 100 miles of range. It's making progress with FAA certification from all reports. And Joby was actually supposed to or is supposed to start air taxi service in Dubai mid year this year. So I'm curious Whether the war with Iran will delay that. If we know yet. And just in general, what's ahead for Joby.
D
Well, to the immediate question of the war, I think it's too early to tell. You know, obviously that's very much an evolving situation and it's been incredibly disruptive to air traffic in a really important region of the world.
B
Yeah.
D
You know, if you just think of the large international carriers that are based right there in the region and what they're having to go through, as well as our carriers here in the US and others in Europe and Asia that are having to restrict service to that part of the world. And, you know, obviously we're going to have to see how that all plays out and how the industry is able to respond to that. But on the Joby side, I. I mean, the company has made just tremendous progress and it's now in a mode where it's building its first few certification class aircraft. Those that are, you know, actually working their way. It'll be the aircraft that will be certified by the faa. You're right. I mean, our intent is to start service in Dubai later on this year. We'll have to see what the timing of that looks like, and that will be a prelude to beginning service here in the United States. And I think that it's very exciting because, you know, this is a much bigger evolution of aviation than just a change to a different form of powered aviation. What we're now doing is really creating a viable aviation alternative to surface transportation, you know, through these short haul, short hop type flights and where people, you know, are not simply looking at what are multiple routes that I might drive on a crowded highway system, or is there even a public transit alternative? But hey, can I get across the bay in a short haul aircraft or can I get directly to the airport, you know, from someplace closer to home? And it fundamentally reshapes how we think, think of aviation. And so that's what I find really exciting. Yeah, I also like, you know, the move toward electric and. Yeah, it's still, you know, in many respects, very early days as we look at the potential of differing propulsion systems for aircraft. But I think that what this demonstrates is the viability of a very clean, a very quiet propulsion system that fundamentally changes how we think of aviation and how it can be a much more significant part of our daily mobility needs. And so it's really exciting now. You know, like anything else, I think that, you know, you have those that are huge proponents that think, you know, everything's going to change overnight. You have Others that are skeptics that kind of view this as a flash in the pan and, you know, it's not really going to result in anything. I think what we're likely to see is it will start relatively focused, you know, and so Joby has a partnership with Delta, you know, and the thought is that it would be, you know, connections from airports to center cities, you know, in places like New York and Los Angeles, where it can be a bit of a challenge getting to the airport.
B
Yeah.
D
And which is consistent with Delta's evolution and continued focus on being a premium brand for Delta customers. And I think that as the public gets used to seeing these things and understanding how they work and how quiet they are, that it's going to generate more demand. Well, what about, you know, can I get from this part of town to another part of town? Can I get from Washington to, you know, a nearby city that, you know, otherwise, you know, I would have more limited alternatives, and I can get there more quickly and through an efficient air taxi type of model. And so I think that, you know, the idea is you kind of start with one set of routes, but I think that once the public sees it, they're going to want to see more of it, and it'll be interesting to see how this industry develops over time.
B
One question I have about it is pilots. You know, we have seen. We. We've come through a pilot shortage. But from an FAA perspective, I mean, are. Are these pilots going to be required to have 1500 hours? It seems to me if that is the requirement, then it's going to be difficult to get pilots. On the other hand, if it's something less and air taxi can become sort of a way to accumulate hours and learn better piloting skills so you're better prepared for airline jobs, then it could be a great feeder in the pipeline of pilot training. How do you see it? What do you think is going to be required, and where are the pilots going to come from for all these air taxis?
D
Well, there are still regulatory questions that will be addressed as we work through this. I think the FAA has always had the approach of looking at these smaller aircraft through the lens of something called the safety continuum, where you're looking, you know, not just at the aircraft and the pilot, but the routes they're flying, the number of passengers they're carrying, and all of that. And so I think that, you know, in terms of the actual qualifications, those are questions that are still being worked through. But Joby's plan is to start with a piloted aircraft. I think it is as much about public acceptance as anything else. There is this belief out in the public that they want to know that this is a mode of transportation that many in the public don't really understand that well. And they want to be assured that someone is ensuring that it's being done safely and will get them to their destination in a safe and efficient fashion. And that's been the pilot. I think that all of the AAM companies, long term, look toward an autonomous future. And yeah, there are a whole lot of regulatory questions to get there. I think many on the technology side, you know, view that as something that can happen relatively quickly. And what I often hear is, well, you get on an elevator every day and that doesn't bother you.
B
I guess an elevator used to have operators.
D
I'm a little more skeptical. I think the public has a very different view of modes of transportation that involve them leaving the ground. And I think that the regulatory question, you know, obviously the FAA and other regulators need to be satisfied of the reliability of the technology, ensuring that it's safe. But, you know, the public has this view of regulators as the group of people that sit in these windowless basements trying to find ways to make companies miserable. I think that, you know, a more correct way of looking at that is the regulator is a proxy for public acceptance. And what the regulator is trying to do is ensure not only that it can satisfy itself that the technology is going to do what it is supposed to do with the degree of reliability that's expected, but they also need to be able to convince what might be a skeptical public that their determination is reasonable. And so, and so I think that a big part of this move toward autonomy is going to be bringing the public with us and ensuring that they are as comfortable with it as, as anybody else might be.
B
It's. It's going to be fascinating. I mean, I, I have, you know, plenty of friends who have ridden in Waymos. Right. And that has, it's interesting to see how acceptance of that seems to be increasing. But I think it's a whole different thing when you leave the ground.
D
Oh yeah, yeah. And I mean, I'm a big fan of Waymos. Every time I go to San Francisco, I will hop in a Waymo without thinking about it. But I've also experienced some challenges. I was recently, recently in Phoenix and you know, how Phoenix is this big, you know, you know, continuum of different cities, but, but many of them have a common street grid. And I, I ended up with a Waymo taking me to the correct address. But in the wrong city.
B
How do you stop it?
D
Well, exactly. This is a very nice looking hell club. That's not where I was going, but
B
too funny. All right, I'm really curious. What else do you find interesting in aviation these days? What intrigues you?
D
Well, I think this movement toward more green aviation is extremely important and I think really promising. We talked about electric aviation, but there's also incredibly promising developments with respect to hybrid, know, hydrogen propulsion. And I think that the great work that's being done with sustainable aviation fuels, I think that what we have as a public is a much higher expectation that companies are going to be good stewards for the environment generally. And yeah, the political winds may blow in one direction or another, but I think that what the, the airline industry is finding is that our customers are demanding that we become greener. And there is a lot of really good work that's taking place, whether it's on the fuel side, whether it's on, you know, better management of supplies to minimize waste, which also translates to burning less fuel if you have to carry around less stuff. And so I think that there's a lot of really, really exciting progress that's being made on the environmental side. And I think I'm. I for one, am really happy to see that because I think that it makes us better stewards as an industry, but it's also responsive to what our customers are increasingly asking for.
B
Mm. Yeah. Yeah. Well, Michael, this has been fascinating. Thank you so much. Really great discussion. And I just love that you're involved in, in new technologies and new ventures and in bringing great stewardship to that. So I really appreciate all you do and look forward to having you back on Airlines Confidential. Once again.
D
Thank you so much.
B
All right, we will be right back
A
with more promotional support provided by the Ultimate Avgeek website. Theercive.net, a vast collection of airline memorabilia, timetables, route maps, rare cabin and airport photos, special flights, and more, all@theairchive.net, the hub of air transport history.
B
Thanks again to Michael. I really think his idea of rewriting how we bring in money to pay for air traffic control is crucial. Commercial space launchers and vertical takeoff and landing aircraft and drone operations who are going to use regulatory and air traffic control services need to pay their fair share, and we got to figure that out. And so do business jets, by the way, because they are not paying their fair share and they take up airspace and they take up controller time. And airline passengers paying 2 and $300 tickets should not be subsidizing corporate business jets. But that's the system we have now. And the money that travelers pay into the trust fund really should get spent, not sit there. You know, everybody gets on a commercial airline flight. They're paying for good air traffic control services and they're not getting what they pay for because the money is just sitting there. So time for Congress to update the aviation trust fund as well. Oscar, Michael is really excited about transformative new aviation technologies, as I know you are. And we're on the cusp, it seems, of a new chapter in aviation. Maybe this is the next new jet age, if you will, where new aircraft really transformed the business. Or is that too much? George Jetson, what do you think is ahead?
C
Increasingly, the use of the Jetson sort of analog when I talk about and evtol aircraft falls on deaf ears because it's a relatively younger set.
B
Right. Who knows who George Jason was?
C
No, but I do actually think we are entering a new chapter in aviation. It won't look like the jet age of the 60s where kind of everything seemed to change overnight. What we're seeing now as you discuss is now multiple innovations happening at once. So you got electric propulsion and advanced air mobility automation, new aircraft designs. I mean we've seen some really sort of interesting looking aircraft. And so I think the real breakthrough may be where aviation operates not just what the aircraft look like. You know, as an example, talking about Joby and Archer, they open up short distance urban mobility in ways that helicopters could never do because of noise and cost. So maybe not Georgeton overnight, but over the next decade we're going to see aviation expand into more markets that really didn't exist before. And aviation has always been about expanding what's possible. And this just happens to be the next frontier. And back to the trust fund and who pays? I mean, you know, private jet service. And again, we all use it at times for different things and it is. And they're the biggest in the lobby against modernizing air traffic control. They always seem to have a very prominent voice. So a lot of things have to change there in order to make this happen. Back to our earlier conversation. And so I'm looking forward to it moving ahead some way somehow.
B
Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Well said. Before we get to the mailbag, I want to thank RTX for its longtime sponsorship of airlines Confidential. RTX rallies more than 180,000 innovators around a powerful vision to create a safer, more connected world. With industry leading tools and technology. The RTX global team works across market leading businesses. Collins Aerospace Pratt and Whitney and Raytheon to drive progress for generations to come together. RTX pushes the boundaries of known science and finds new ways to connect and protect our world. Visit rtx.com to learn more.
C
So, moving to our mailbag, Matt from Denver has a clarification for you in response. Response to last week's show, Matt says, hi, Scott, and thanks again for another fascinating episode. I'm sure I'm just one of many United flyers writing in, but the new system of pulling miles that was discussed by you and Maya that would help Spirit differentiate themselves was already implemented by United a year or two ago. It's a great policy. Not saying it wouldn't work for Spirit, but it wouldn't necessarily differentiate them. Well, it's a good point that he raises about differentiation. You know, the real opportunity, I believe, for low cost carriers is simplicity. And loyalty programs and legacy airlines have become very sophisticated but sometimes also very complicated. Pooling is a simple idea that makes rewards more accessible. But I believe the real opportunity for low cost carriers is more simplicity. These programs can be a little complicated and so I'm not sure it's going to differentiate anyone in that regard because it's already out there and it requires a lot of effort and a lot of sort of customer sentiment and interaction for them to work. So there's always room for programs that are easier to understand and I wish them luck.
B
Yeah, I think it's a great point. And that was very much the point that Maya and I were making the previous week where, you know, it was, it was more about simplicity. I suggested kind of a return to the south with the old Southwest. Hey, you, you fly a certain number of flights and you get a coupon for a free flight. And the point there was simplicity. Right. And make it rewarding because I think loyalty programs at big airlines, they're really about status now and the, and the perks you get with elite level qualification. So I think the discounters, you know, there's room there to say, hey, for the infrequent traveler, we're going to devise a program that's going to get you free trips, you know, in, in a reasonable amount of time. But the simplicity is, is the key to that and the reward is the key to that. And you give people an incentive to fly Spirit or Frontier or whoever. And the differentiation, just as you say, comes from, from that simplicity. So, and I do think, I think pooling would help the, you know, as United has found, would help the occasional traveler because that really is the, you know, the discounters they're not going after the road warriors. They're going after the friends and family traveler or the leisure traveler. And I think that could certainly devise simple programs that would be rewarding to them. You know, United's program, yeah, they have pooling, but the complexity and it's also a lot less rewarding for occasional travelers if they don't have the credit card, for example, because they're not going to earn as much and they're going to pay a higher price when they go to redeem miles if they don't have the credit card to bring it.
C
You know, very personal. Like, my family was very excited about an ability to pull my mileage with theirs, but they have found it not as easy to sort of maneuver and work through that.
B
It's interesting. Interesting. You know, and United, the friends and family, when I looked at it, they do allow friends. You can designate your group of. Before I, I thought one of one of Maya's really cool points was, hey, if you've got a group of golfers who go on an annual golf trip, right. And, and you could. And one of them's going to get a free trip and maybe not every year, maybe every other year or every third year or whatever, you, you could, you know, have some fun using Spirit or Frontier, whoever for your, your golf trip. Now have to look at Spirit of Frontiers, charged for checking a golf bag, but might wipe out any savings. But, you know, I think you got to create some fun and excitement with this and I think that's an area where they can differentiate just by making it easier to use. I think loyalty programs are working great for big airlines, but there is, there is room now underneath that for something different that, that could have appeal. Well, that's all the appeal I have to offer for airlines Confidential this week. Thanks again to Michael Horta and thanks to you, Oscar Munoz, always great to, to talk leadership strategy, aircraft technology, loyalty, everything else with you. Really appreciate it.
C
Well, thanks again for having me. And you know, kind of as a closing sentiment or thought given the conversation, you know, aviation innovation has always taken time. Right. For all the right reasons. But when it arrives, it tends to reshape the industry for decades. And you know, if I could foreshadow some future guests that we will have on the podcast, we hope to have the leaders of certainly Archer and possibly Joby. And then I'd like to introduce also Boom, Supersonic and their CEO. I think the listeners would love to hear the perspectives, the journey that they are currently on and continue to be on because that's an area that I think has very tangible traction. And so thanks for having me again so long and have a great week, everyone. Thanks for listening.
A
This podcast is produced by Mass media info@massmedia.net.
Host: Scott McCartney
Guest Co-Host: Oscar Munoz (Former United Airlines CEO)
Guest Interview: Michael Huerta, Former FAA Administrator
Date: March 11, 2026
This episode explores the ongoing turbulence in the airline industry due to spiking oil prices, executive shakeups at major airlines and DHS, and the daunting challenges of modernizing the U.S. air traffic control system. The centerpiece of the show is an in-depth interview with Michael Huerta, former FAA Administrator and current board member at Delta and Joby Aviation, on the complexities of funding, governing, and technologically transforming U.S. aviation—including the rise of air taxis, drones, and new forms of urban mobility.
Record Spikes in Oil Prices:
“Fuel has always been the industry’s wild card. As airlines, we can control labor, productivity, fleet decisions… but that’s the one variable that can change overnight.”
Economic Headwinds:
Major Executive Changes:
“When employees are working without pay during these funding gaps, it’s not just a political issue. It becomes an operational issue for us.”
Complex, Mission-Driven Agency:
Daily Imperative:
“We have a very simple performance measure. At the end of the day, we want to see the same number of landings as takeoffs. And every day it starts all over again.”
Stakeholder Complexity:
Chronic Underfunding & Uncertainty:
“We never began a fiscal year with our budget in place… funding uncertainty has been this constant.”
Who Pays for the System?
“Commercial space launches…have become routine. The result is significant costs…but that industry pays nothing into the trust fund.”
Reforming FAA’s Structure?
“It's probably not a good idea to start with the structure and then figure out how you’re going to solve the problem… Better to start with ‘What’s the problem we’re trying to solve?’ And the problem we’re trying to solve is a funding problem.”
Political Will Needed for Real Change:
“Today we have over 20 en route centers. I don't think there's anyone on the planet that thinks we need 20.”
Three-Year Modernization Push:
eVTOLs and Air Taxis (Joby Aviation & Others):
“This is a much bigger evolution of aviation than just a change to a different form of powered aviation. What we’re now doing is really creating a viable aviation alternative to surface transportation.”
Pilot Pipeline Questions:
Huerta on FAA Employee Culture ([22:39]):
“If you ask anyone who works at the FAA where they work, they will say, ‘I work for the FAA.’ … There is a real commitment to the aviation industry among the people who work there.”
On Performance Metrics ([24:25]):
“At the end of the day, we want to see the same number of landings as takeoffs.”
On Underfunding ([29:40]):
“We never began a fiscal year with our budget in place…funding uncertainty has been this constant…”
On New Technology & Modernization ([41:54]):
"The new technology enables us to do a whole lot more with data, which would decrease our reliance on voice communication...if you're doing a lot of that with better data integration...you're introducing another level of safety."
On eVTOLs & Air Taxi’s Future ([47:23]):
“This is a much bigger evolution of aviation than just a change to a different form of powered aviation. What we’re now doing is really creating a viable aviation alternative to surface transportation…”
On Public Acceptance of Automation ([53:37]):
“I think the public has a very different view of modes of transportation that involve them leaving the ground… the regulator is a proxy for public acceptance.”
Both McCartney and Munoz underscore that the aviation industry stands at the threshold of its “next frontier”—not a sudden Jet Age transformation, but a gradual, ongoing expansion of what’s possible through electric propulsion, automation, and new mobility forms. The biggest hurdles aren’t just technological, but political and structural: funding, fairness in who pays, and the will to revise outdated governance and airspace management systems.
Final Oscar Munoz Reflection (67:35):
“Aviation innovation has always taken time…But when it arrives, it tends to reshape the industry for decades.”
If you work in or care about commercial aviation, the regulatory debates, or the impacts of new technology, this episode is a must-listen and a field guide to the decisions—both political and technological—that will shape air travel for decades to come.