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Eric Stone
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Yvonne Crumry
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Eric Stone
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Yvonne Crumry
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Casey Grove
Just by the oddity of history this year, that day was in early March. How tumultuous oil prices changed the state's calculation of what it can spend. From Alaska Public Media. This is statewide news on Alaska News nightly for Friday, March 27th. Good evening. I'm Casey Grove. Also tonight, an 18th candidate joins the race to be Alaska's next governor.
Greg Bresford
I came of age in rural Alaska. I've spent years and years in villages, small towns.
Casey Grove
Those stories and more tonight on Alaska News Nightly.
Eric Stone
The PFD application is open.
Yvonne Crumry
Just a small amount of your PFD will help share local news and stories about Alaskans with Alaskans across this great state. When you choose Alaska Public Media through Pick Click Give.
Casey Grove
Twice a year, Alaska's Department of Revenue faces a difficult task, estimating the amount of money the state will have to spend. The forecast is at the heart of some of the biggest debates in Juneau. It tells the governor and the legislature how much cash they'll have to fight over. And this year, with war induced turmoil in the oil markets, that figure is even harder to predict. But they have to estimate something. So how does the Department of Revenue do it? Alaska Public Media's Eric Stone reports.
Eric Stone
Back in the day, the revenue forecast was fueled by bagels, cream cheese and M&Ms. That's according to Larry Pursali, a newspaper publisher, columnist and former deputy commissioner of the Department of Revenue. In the late 90s and early 2000s. This several hours going through this gotta have sugar. Personally says officials from all kinds of different departments would gather in a conference room and give presentations about all the different things influencing two extremely important numbers, how much Alaska North Slope crude would come out of the ground and how much a barrel of it would sell for. And personally says their job essentially was to come up with their best guess of where prices and production would land. And everybody at the end of the presentations, the end of the day would get to vote where they thought low, middle, high price projections would be for that year.
Casey Grove
The next year.
Eric Stone
The next year they would tally up the votes and there you had it, your oil price and production forecast. Of course, oil isn't the only thing that brings in revenue. State takes in all kinds of other revenue like fish taxes, cruise ship passenger fees and corporate taxes. And since 2018, earnings from the permanent fund, which are now the single largest source of general purpose dollars in the budget. But those are more stable, not nearly as hard to predict as the oil market. The process has evolved over the years, but Ken Alper, the Department of Revenue's tax director in the late 2010s, says it was still largely in house during his tenure. Officials looking at the market, oil analysts, predictions, that sort of thing.
Casey Grove
We'd have lunch and we would talk about what different analysts were saying, what the futures markets were.
Eric Stone
By 2021, though, the Department of Revenue was leaning more heavily on the futures market. Instead of making its own distinct forecast these days, it outsources the price forecast to the futures market. That is what investors betting real money think the price will be a month from now, six months from now, five years from now, and so on. To do that, Alper says Revenue Department officials pick a date and take a look at what the market says about prices in the five trading days leading up to it.
Casey Grove
And just by unhappy coincidence, I guess, just by the oddity of history this year, that day was in early March,
Eric Stone
March 11, to be exact, a day before the forecast was released and just under two weeks into the US And Israel's war with Iran. The war, of course, to functionally close the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about a fifth of the world's oil. And since then, oil prices have been on a wild ride. This month, they're more volatile than at any time since the depths of the pandemic in April 2020, according to an index known as Ovics. The pandemic, you know, when oil prices went negative for a day. That's the only time in the index's nearly 20 year history when prices were more volatile than they are right now. Here's the Department of Revenue's chief economist, Dan Stickle, talking to lawmakers earlier this month.
Casey Grove
The level of uncertainty around future prices in the oil markets now is higher than during the peaks of the Great Recession in 2008, 2009, and it's higher than when Russia invaded Ukraine.
Eric Stone
But the Department of Revenue had to come up with something. Lawmakers rely on the spring forecast in mid March to make budget decisions. They can't exactly wait until the war is over. So they looked at the market, and at that point the futures market thought oil would average just over $91 a barrel through the end of June. That translates into more than half a billion dol for legislators to fight over, and based on the futures market, another half billion dollars next year. But the Department of Revenue is taking great pains to underscore just how uncertain they are about where oil prices are actually going.
Casey Grove
Here's Stickle again, looking a couple of months out. There is a 10% chance that oil prices will go well over $200 per barrel later this fiscal year. There is a 10% chance that oil Prices will fall to $30 per barrel later this fiscal year.
Eric Stone
That's according to the options market, and that would be worth about $1.5 billion in revenue. So the state could have hundreds of millions of dollars more or hundreds of millions less than expected. Where things land, though, is anybody's guess. Reporting in Juneau, I'm Eric Stone.
Casey Grove
Nome based Superior court judge Romano DiBenedetto has resigned. The 57 year old was awaiting a final ruling from the Alaska Supreme Court over a judicial misconduct investigation. DiBenedetto submitted a letter announcing his intent to retire Friday with an effective date of April 1st. His departure comes after the Alaska Commission on Judicial Conduct concluded a public reprimand was sufficient punishment for multiple incidents regarding his conduct on and off the bench. The Commission found that DiBenedetto violated provisions of the Alaska Code of Judicial Conduct in ways that created a quote, undermined public confidence in the judiciary, end quote. Among the incidents was a 2024 hearing in Unilocleet where Debenedetto delayed proceedings for nearly an hour. When he arrived, he told attorneys he had gotten lost in the small western Alaska hub village. The commission found the delay gave the impression that court business was secondary to personal matters. Additional concerns centered on DiBenedetto's behavior in the workplace. According to sworn statements, he at times impersonated courtroom participants using exaggerated accents, including Alaska Native individuals and a Vietnamese police officer. DiBenedetto served in the second judicial district, which covers Nome and a vast portion of western and northwest Alaska. Governor Mike Dunleavy's deputy legislative director, Forrest Wolf, was arrested and charged with driving under the influence Thursday evening in Juneau. In a charging document, a Juneau police officer said he stopped Wolf in downtown Juneau at roughly 10:30 last night. That's after Wolf's red Chevy Tahoe nearly caused an accident in a busy downtown area near bars, restaurants and the Alaska State Capitol. According to the complaint, police say Wolf smelled of alcohol, offered conflicting stories about what he'd been doing, then stopped answering questions. Wolf allegedly failed field sobriety tests and later performed a breath test showing his blood alcohol concentration at 0.10. Wolf posted $500 bail and was released from Lemon Creek Correctional center early this morning. Wolf declined to comment on the allegations. A spokesperson for Governor Dunleavy had no immediate comment. Before he joined the governor's office, Wolf worked for the Department of Administration and as a legislative aide. He was a Republican candidate for an Anchorage state House seat in 2022. Wolf is due back in court next week. Still to come on Alaska News Nightly, juno dancers debut a Rainbow Pride raven's tail robe.
Nich Yanagut Yeh Lane Reinhardt
We know we've always been doing this work, and it's kind of good to see it come out in such a public way.
Casey Grove
That's ahead. Stay with us.
Yvonne Crumry
Hi, I'm Avery Elfeldt, a reporter with the Alaska Desk. That's a joint reporting effort from Alaska Public Media, khns, where I work in Haines and other public radio stations in Anchorage, Fairbanks and the Aleutians. It allows us to connect you with the issues happening in communities all across the state. You can hear our stories during the morning news on Alaska News Nightly or online@alaskapublic.org the Alaska Desk is only possible with the support of grants and listeners like you. Thank you.
Casey Grove
An 18th candidate joined the race to be Alaska's next governor this week. Attorney Greg Bresford threw his hat into the ring Tuesday as an independent candidate. The 75 year old has spent time as an Anchorage prosecutor, a municipal manager in Bristol Bay and the CEO of the Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association. He also ran unsuccessfully for U.S. house following the death of Congressman Don Young. Bresford says he's running to be what he calls Alaska's education governor. He says Governor Mike Dunleavy and his Republican allies in the legislature have badly underfunded public education across the state.
Greg Bresford
They've abandoned and betrayed and sold out our K12 students and their teachers and their parents.
Casey Grove
He pointed in particular to Dunleavy's vetoes of various efforts to raise public school funding. Lawmakers overrode two of those vetoes last year to increase basic per student funding by 12%. For his part, Dunleavy has consistently said he's not convinced funding alone would improve student achievement and raise Alaska's lagging test scores. Brailsford says he plans to put $200,000 of his own money towards his run. He wants to begin his campaign in rural Alaska.
Greg Bresford
I came of age in rural Alaska. I've spent years and years in villages, small towns and both tribal and local government organizations through a large part of rural Alaska. So I'm going to be spending a lot of time introducing myself to people there.
Casey Grove
From there, he says, he'll see what kind of momentum he can build. Candidates have until June 1st to join the race Governor Mike Dunleavy issued a disaster declaration yesterday covering four Northwest Arctic communities Ambler, Buckland, Sugnack and Solewick due to utility disruptions from extreme cold. The declaration is in response to widespread freeze ups to community infrastructure and allows the state to reimburse communities for emergency protective measures, permanent repair projects and getting utilities back online. Alaska's Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management spokesperson Jeremy Zedek says the disruptions are more than the communities are able to handle alone.
Greg Bresford
The Northwest Arctic Borough has been helping out those local governments, but they just don't have the resources and that's where this disaster declaration became essential.
Casey Grove
Zedc says the declaration only covers public infrastructure and not damages to individual homes in Chugnac and Selewick. Water and plumbing freeze ups have closed schools for several weeks this year. In response, the city of Selwyck declared a disaster in late February. The Northwest Arctic Borough was not available for comment today. House District 40 Representative Robin Freer wrote in an email to Kotz News that she worked with Senator Donnie Olson on communicating the need for extra funding to the governor's office in a letter addressed to Governor Dunleavy earlier this month, Freer requested the disaster declaration, saying costs had already surpassed $100,000 in one community and snow removal in Kotzebue was estimated to cost a quarter million dollars, the letter said. Ambler, Shugnak, Selewic and Kotzebue had all declared formal disaster declarations and the borough expended all available emergency funding. The disaster declaration allows local governments, tribal organizations and certain nonprofits with documented damages to apply through the state' public assistance program to be reimbursed. An Anchorage School Board candidate is highlighting what she says are the extreme views of her opponent. Candidate Rachel Blakesley sent mailers to voters that included screenshots of her opponent Alexander Rosales's social media posts. The posts included in the campaign mailer are from the social media site X from two years ago and disparaged women, religious groups, LGBTQ people and even the Anchorage School District itself. Anchorage Daily News reporter Tim Rocky has been following the race and reported recently on the mailer and the response.
Tim Rocky
In the first post, Rosales said, quote, yes, ASD is garbage. Prior employee and dad of two kids in the institution. They need to be shut down, end quote. The second post is from August of 2024. In that one he says, did you know that Hitler pulled Germany out of economic hardship, potentially saving millions of people, end quote. Now Alexander Rosales posts quite frequently on his various social media platforms and he said a variety of offensive things about different groups of people. But these two tweets ended up in mailboxes across Anchorage just a few weeks before voters decide who they'll elect to the Anchorage School Board.
Casey Grove
Yeah, that's an interesting part of this because ballots have already been mailed out to Anchorage voters. So why did his opponent, Blakeslee, start publicizing these social media posts?
Tim Rocky
So Rachel Blakeslee told me she wanted Anchorage voters to have all the information about the candidates running for school board before voting. Blakeslee said she wanted voters to be aware of the things Rosales had posted because they inform what decisions he could make about the students in the Anchorage school district and if he's elected. Blakeslee said voters get their information in a variety of different ways. Tv, radio, newspaper and on the Internet. And she didn't know if Anchorage residents who aren't kind of constantly online and familiar with his posts were really aware of what he has to say.
Casey Grove
Oh yeah. So what did Rosales say about all of this?
Tim Rocky
Last Thursday, Rosales posted to his website explaining the tweets in Blakesley's mail art. And if you want to read his response, you can go to alex for schoolboard ak.com in the post, Rosales doesn't exactly refute every claim, but he adds context around what he meant. He said, quote, they label me as too extreme for our schools. Okay, let's look at the facts. First claim called for ASD to be shut down. Yes, I have said that. Parentheses, probably their posted date does not match up. He goes on to address the tweet about Hitler. Later on in his post, he said, quote, fourth claim praise Hitler on social media. No, that's a flat out distortion.
Casey Grove
So that's Rosales responding to this criticism of his tweets. What are other people saying, though, out there in the political stratosphere?
Tim Rocky
So some other prominent Alaska Republican politicos are taking different stances on whether or not to support Rosales. On one hand, Alaska Family Council President Jim Minnery said his Christian policy nonprofit organization just isn't endorsing school board candidates this year. He said Rosales response to questions in his organization's voter guide align with values they endorse. Rosales campaign finance reports to the Alaska Public Offices Committee don't show any donations from Republican elected officials or other conservative policy groups. Now Kelly Shabaka, former director for the Department of Administration and a Donald Trump endorsed 2022 candidate for US Senate, took a much firmer stance. On her Facebook page. She posted a picture of her ballot with the circle next to Rosales, name filled in and then just a few hours later, she withdrew her support in a follow up post. In that post, Chewbacca said, earlier today, I posted my ballot with a vote for Alexander Rosales for school board. Then I received screenshots of his social media posts along with certain allegations. I went and looked myself. Some of what was alleged wasn't accurate, but some of it was. I'm concerned about racial comments I saw, including a post normalizing racial slurs. I believe in accountability, including my own. When new information changes the picture, you say so.
Casey Grove
So Tim, like we mentioned, ballots have already been mailed out. Voters are filling in those ovals for themselves. When are they due back and anything else you can tell us about this
Tim Rocky
election, they can be returned at any one of the 18 different secure drop boxes across Anchorage until election day on April 7th. And if you'd like to hear more from the candidates, you can hear our interviews or read the transcription of our interviews on alaskapublic.org or adn.com Yep, another
Casey Grove
collaboration there and collaboration here with you coming in to talk to me about this particular race. That was Anchorage Daily News reporter Tim Rocky. Tim, thanks for being here.
Tim Rocky
Thanks for having me, Casey.
Casey Grove
The Alaska Board of Fisheries last weekend voted down three proposals to limit hatchery production of pink and chum salmon. Those hatcheries are mostly in Southeast and Prince William Sound. They're run by private nonprofits and state manages their permits. The Fairbanks Fish and Game Advisory committee sought a 25% reduction in egg production per hatchery permit. That's a proposal that they've recommended before. Board of Fish member Mike Wood of Talkeetna discussed the pros and cons.
Eric Stone
By cutting 25% of hatchery production in areas like Prince William Sound or Southeast,
Greg Bresford
is that really is a squeeze worth
Eric Stone
the juice with the impacts that it would have on these small boat fishermen on an industry that we really need to rely on in this state?
Casey Grove
The board decided no and rejected the proposal six to one. Board members heard oral testimony from about 150 people over five days and received nearly 1,000 pages of written testimony. Two other proposals to limit pink and chum hatchery production came from the Kenai River Sports Fishing Association. Kevin Delaney with the group said they're concerned that hatchery salmon compete with wild stocks. A study from 2023 suggests there may not be enough ocean food for all of them.
Greg Bresford
We believe it's overwhelmingly on the side that there are impacts to wild stocks as a result of the magnitude of hatchery production in pink and chum in Alaska.
Casey Grove
One of the group's proposals targeted hatcheries in Prince William Sound that failed by a large margin. But another proposal triggered a split vote and a lot of discussion. It would have capped pink and chum salmon permits at last year's levels by limiting egg take at those hatcheries. Advocates said this would allow the state time to further investigate if hatchery pinks and chums affect wild stocks and by how much. Board member Olivia Irwin of Nenana supported the proposal, saying it would give the state time to research the potential problem.
Yvonne Crumry
There is no definitive proof that our wild stocks are not being adversely affected or impacted by hatchery fish.
Casey Grove
But the proposal ultimately received no action by the board with a vote of 4 to 3, meaning it doesn't advance. Fish and Game also opposed the proposal.
Greg Bresford
Foreign.
Casey Grove
Alaskans are a small step closer to getting alerts on their phones several seconds before an earthquake hits. Those alerts would come from a U.S. geological Survey system called ShakeAlert. It's not new. Other earthquake prone states and countries have had it for years. In late February, Congress allocated almost $35 million to USGS to expand ShakeAlert, and $2 million of that will go toward bringing it to Alaska. Michael west directs the Alaska Earthquake center, which has been working with USGS to bring the system up north. He says they're still years and many millions of dollars away from seeing it go live. But eventually, people in South Central Kodiak and Fairbanks would be among the first Alaskans to receive SHAKE alerts, most critically,
Eric Stone
the regions of the state that have the highest seismic hazard for two reasons. One, we have a combination of high risk and population, and also we've got the best infrastructure to start with. That area already has reasonably solid, call it basic earthquake monitoring.
Casey Grove
West says Alaska's federal delegation, particularly US Senator Lisa Murkowski, who sits on the Senate Appropriations Committee, helped obtain the seed money for the project. Murkowski said in an emailed statement that expanding the program into Alaska is a huge priority and called it, quote, highly successful in Washington, Oregon and California, end quote. West says the path ahead for ShakeAlert in Alaska is not completely clear. Current estimates put a $66 million price tag on the first phase, as well as $12 million annual operational costs. Still, he says he's optimistic about its future after receiving federal support.
Eric Stone
It's definitely an exciting time. There's a lot to figure out, and the pace of rollout of early warning will certainly depend on support and engagement and all of those things. But I feel like we're at a turning point. We're starting to make this real.
Casey Grove
The program is not under consideration in the state budget this year, but west says state funding in the program will be critical in the years to come. Well A Rainbow Pride Raven's Tail robe woven by dozens of mentors and youth was danced for the first time this week in Juneau. Dancers debuted the robe on the court during the Gold Medal Basketball Tournament, which brings together teams and fans from Alaska Native communities across southeast Alaska. KTO's Yvonne Crumry spoke with some of the people who brought the robe to
Yvonne Crumry
life at the Gold Medal Basketball Tournament. As the squeaks of players shoes on the gym floor fade, the Eagle Raven dance group file out onto the court. Through the mostly red, black and blue regalia, flashes of rainbow peek through. Group leader Jackie Peda announces the Weaving our Pride robes for their debut you as a pair tonight I'm going to feature two robes that are dancing for
Eric Stone
the first time together.
Yvonne Crumry
The Chilkat robe was finished in 2024 under the guidance of Master Weaver Lily Hope and other weaving mentors, but this was the first time the Raven's Tail robe was danced. Its journey to Gold Medal started at the Zach Gordon Youth center, where over the course of two years, weaving mentors and curious youth wove the robe stitch by stitch, row by row. It transformed from wool into handspun yarn into a full sized robe. Like its older Chilkat sibling, the Raven's Tail robe was made from rainbow handspun yarn. The colors are mixed with black thread and white squares sit on top of the design. Black and white zigzag patterns border the robe. Melena Meyer was one of several weavers who mentored the project, which often looked like working on the project alone. Until someone at the center wanted to participate, she says youth would be interested in what they were doing, but too shy to take the yarn into their own hands. There's been a couple youth that like to hang out in the back room with us while we are weaving, but we couldn't really get them to come in and weave to sit down and stuff until one day of just, you know, needing to wind up some balls of yarn or something and sitting down and saying hey, if you're going to be in here, you need to do this and then they start weaving on it later. Nich Yanagut Yeh Lane Reinhardt is a weaver and he also mentored the program. Through both projects, he says dozens of young people participated, contributing just a couple of stitches to whole rows of weaving.
Nich Yanagut Yeh Lane Reinhardt
I think that that's what's beautiful about the Raven's tail robe, the Yehu robe, is that it's just you can see the youth's hands in it in a way that is very, very present. And I think that that's kind of what, you know, makes it beautiful, is that you can really see that in the way that the stitches lie.
Yvonne Crumry
And all that teamwork doesn't just make the robe more beautiful, he says. It's also making future weavers.
Nich Yanagut Yeh Lane Reinhardt
I think just even that early exposure to, you know, the art form, it's like, well, you know, Even if it's 10 years down the line or five years, whatever it may be, or tomorrow, like, you know, they'll have that in their hands, like, already.
Yvonne Crumry
And for Brinehart, the pride element of the project is personal, just sort of
Nich Yanagut Yeh Lane Reinhardt
that reaffirmation that we've always been here. There's historical documentation of, you know, LGBTQ weavers in our community. So, you know, we've always been doing this work, and it's kind of good to see it come out in such a public way.
Yvonne Crumry
Chris colson is now 20 years old, but they spent countless hours weaving on both robes since they were 17. They got the chance to dance with the Chilkat robe that was finished in 2024.
Casey Grove
I actually danced it, like, right after it was cut off, the loom.
Yvonne Crumry
Colson says that they got pretty comfortable with the raven's tail style. They have their own loom at home, and now they want to start taking on their own projects. They say the robes turned out beautifully.
Casey Grove
I just hope that people, you know, the youth really enjoy, you know, dancing them, and it lasts a long time.
Yvonne Crumry
Colson had the honor of wearing the raven's tail robe out of the center for the first time and delivering it to the court at Juno Douglas High School. Yida at Kalle. Now the robe is a part of the community in Juneau. I'm Yvonne Crummery,
Casey Grove
And that is all for this edition of Alaska News Nightly. If you missed any of tonight's stories, we're online@alaskapublic.org and wherever you get your podcasts. We had reports tonight from Eric Stone and Yvonne Crumry in Juneau. Ben Townsend in Nome, Desiree Hagan in Kotzebue, Tim Ellis in Delta Junction, Tim Rocky in Anchorage, Angela Denning in Petersburg, and Shelby Herbert in Fairbanks. If you want to send us a news tip, question or comment, email us at newsalaskapublic. Org. Our audio engineer is Crystal Hyde. Kirsten Dobroth is our producer And I'm Casey Grove. Have a great weekend.
This episode of "Alaska News Nightly" brings listeners a cross-section of major statewide stories, from the ripple effects of volatile oil prices on Alaska’s budget process, to politics, legal news, disaster response in rural communities, fisheries management, earthquake early warning, school board controversies, and a feature on the debut of a Rainbow Pride Raven’s Tail robe in Juneau. Hosted by Casey Grove, the episode emphasizes the broad scope of issues affecting Alaskans, highlighted by strong reporting and diverse local voices.
This episode underscores the complexity of life in Alaska: the budget’s fate decided alongside global oil markets, small communities counting on state help, the ever-present need for political transparency, contentious fisheries issues, advances in public safety technology, and the resilience and creativity of Alaska’s youth and indigenous cultures.
The tone throughout is informative but empathetic, giving space for Alaskans’ voices and concerns to resonate statewide.