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All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg
All-In's Best Ideas Pitch Competition: 4 Investors Present Their Top Trades Live
01:07:57
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- [00:00]
Moderator
Maybe you could tell us a little bit about how you selected our presenters and your vision for this.
- [00:05]
David
I mean, for any of you guys who've been involved in Ira Sohn, this is a gentleman that passed away from cancer far too young. And his family created this thing called the Sohn foundation. And they would host this event and it started in Lincoln center and they would ask these managers. And so at the time I was like a young venture investor and I got this invite and I showed up in New York at Lincoln center in 2015 and I said, Amazon's going to be a trillion dollar company. And I was laughed out of the room. David Einhorn, who's a friend of mine but who is totally wrong, said, I know trillion dollar companies. This is not a trillion dollar company. Wrong. It turned out to be a great bet. I went back, I did Tesla in 2016. We picked the converts. And then in 2017, I was like, all right, this is it. This is my magnum opus. And I said, AI is the future. And then I pick box. Like, if I had just picked Nvidia, I would have been a legend. Legend that I could have retired. Well, anyway, so we wanted to recreate Iris Zone and start to get these great managers who are making great picks, making a ton of money for their LPs. They don't get the distribution. And so it's just a chance to, like, get to know some of these names. You don't have to see them on cnbc. You'll see them here more and more often. And we can just get to opine.
- [01:25]
Aaron Cowan
Roll the video.
- [01:26]
David
Yeah.
- [01:26]
Dan Dreyfus
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Best ideas pitch.
- [01:32]
Kyle Samani
Let's meet our contestants. Anyone should be able to trade any asset anywhere in the world, anytime, 24 7. With just an Internet connection and a phone in their pocket. We're building a new financial system from the ground up here.
- [01:45]
Aaron Cowan
People are going to want to own equities and it's going to be fun. In the next couple of years, companies are going to innovate and create products and applications. And that's where hopefully long, short managers like us can make a boatload of money.
- [01:57]
Oleg Nodelman
My fund, EcoR1 Capital, which is based in San Francisco, thinks of investing in biotech in a slightly different way. We're looking for unfollowed, unloved, misunderstood biotech companies.
- [02:06]
Aaron Cowan
It's an amazing moment in time for those types of companies.
- [02:09]
Gavin
There has been a structural and permanent perception shift where both sides of the aisle are going to be leaning into nuclear in a big way. I'm massively optimistic you know, all of this leads me to just the maximum risk on.
- [02:29]
Aaron Cowan
Thanks, the Besties for having me. And this is obviously a fabulous event you guys have put on. I'm happy to be here. For those of you who don't know me, I run a $4 billion firm in New York called Serratta Capital. Before founding my firm, I was. I ran the equities business for George Soros. I was then CIO for Steve Cohen. And I've been doing hedge funds now for 29 years. So definitely on the older edge of my. My peer group. So I was thinking about, you know, I run a generalist fund, and, you know, we own a bunch of tech stocks. But, you know, given this audience here, for me to pitch a tech stock would be absolutely, completely stupid. So I was thinking about what else? And obviously the theme of this conference, besides tech is poker. So I'm going to pitch to you mgm. Now, most of you know mgm, as you think about it, as the Vegas company. They own 13 properties in Vegas. Them and Caesars are the two largest owners of casino assets in Vegas. Now, if you notice, the other day, Caesars got taken out. And so we think Vegas is actually starting to improve. But I'm not here to pitch MGM because of Vegas. What I'm going to tell you is there's a couple of things we noticed. One is this company's been very aggressively been stock's been aggressively acquired by Barry Diller lately. Barry now owns 26% of the company. Now, I put this presentation together two weeks ago. Yesterday, he actually bid for the company. Okay, so when I put the presentation together, the stock was about $37. It's now high 40s. He bid $48. Okay. I would not sell my shares to him.
- [04:19]
David
When did we get this presentation? Did we get it early enough to transact?
- [04:23]
Aaron Cowan
I would not sell his. I would not sell my stock to him for a second. And the reason is also, besides him buying the stock, the company's also been buying the stock. Rarely have I ever seen a company in six years buy half their float back. So you have Barry Diller, who's the legend, aggressively buying the stock. And it's also now 80% of his nav. Okay, so you. Most people think of Barry Diller as the ABC producer. He did ic, which owned assets like Expedia, and now he's a casino guy. What is going on here? So we spent a lot of time asking ourselves why. And why is MGM has two hidden assets? Okay, the first one is, and this is sort of our. The Punchline of what we think the stock is worth. So you add the Vegas assets plus China, you get about low 60s. So from $48 or 37 when I started this great return. What is they? What they have now is a license to open a casino in Osaka, Japan. Japan a couple of years ago went through a whole referendum around the country they have prefectures. The prefecture is voted. The only one that decided to own open a casino is, is Osaka. Now Osaka is. And this is what the asset is going to look like. It's going to open in 2030. If you go to the company slide presentations, they sort of mention this, but they're not really talking about it. Japan, just for you people. Sorry, I don't know. It's very slow. Japan actually has a reasonably large gambling market. They have pachinko parlors and they have horses. That's about a $40 billion market. If you look at the market In Macau, that's 30 billion. And if you look at Vegas, it's only $10 billion. So this could be a massive opportunity. You know, we're estimating they'll do about $2 billion of EBITDA. They own 40% of the property. They also get a management fee for this. If you also look at where Osaka is located, it's a great, you know, so the Japanese like to gamble, but the Chinese really gamble, okay? So if you look at where it is from Shanghai, it's shorter than Macau and Singapore, which is the two big gaming options in Asia. And from Beijing, about the same distance as Macau and obviously much shorter than going to Singapore. So if you want to go gambling for a weekend and you live in Shanghai, live in Beijing, Osaka is great. It's also a first world nation. And if you think about as an investor, where would you want to have your money? Look, Macau has issues. It's a low multiple business. This is Japan, it's a first world country. So we think Barry Diller understands gambling, he understands casinos. But what he's really doing is now trying to pick off the company to get the Japanese opportunity, which we think is worth will more than double the stock. The final option. And I'm keeping this simple. What I love about this pitch is it's really simple. It's not that hard to do the math. MGM is built somebody, they're building a property in Dubai, okay? Now it's a grand complex. It has an aria, it has an MGM and it has a Bellagio. Gambling is illegal in Dubai right now, okay. But they have snuck in this building, 300,000 square feet of space. Well, one day, if Dubai decides to legalize gambling, guess where it's going right there. Next year, two. Sorry, two years from now, Wynn is going to open a casino in a place called Aur Marjan, which is 45 minutes away from Dubai. Now, any of us who want to go gambling in Dubai is a bit of a pain in the ass to get to, we're going to want to go here. So we think there's a chance that especially when Wynn opens also, look, there's a possibility, the war. You know, Dubai wants to reestablish themselves that they open a casino in Dubai, and you know what that would be worth. So when you take the Vegas assets, which we think are worth about 60, when you take Japan, which we think is worth about 50 bucks, if Dubai happens, that's worth another 40 or $50. So we think the stock is a triple. Remember, Barry's bidding for the company, okay? He is not a strategic buyer. He is a financial buyer, and he's doing it to get rich. So therefore, I think this company is now in play. I don't know how it's all going to play out, but if you own shares, don't tender them. And the risk rewards, incredible right now because, you know, I'm telling you, I think the stock could be easily worth over 100, could be worth 150. And now you have Barry Diller, who is. Has a firm bid, owns 26% of the company, basically at the same price. So I think this is a cool idea.
- [09:34]
Moderator
Well done. Okay, anybody? Let's do two questions. And yeah, I'll give you both questions at the same time for efficiency.
- [09:44]
Dan Dreyfus
How much have you looked at the monetization of the assets outside of gambling? I had heard from someone that Barry Diller was spending a lot of time trying to reinvent the entertainment piece of the properties. He was active on the board, and they were trying to identify that the entertainment properties way. The entertainment value is way under monetized and they could be making a lot more per.
- [10:04]
Moderator
Okay, don't answer yet.
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Aaron Cowan
That's question one.
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David
And then question two is how, when you expand internationally, do you scale customer credit? Because that tends to be the thing that drives, you know, people to come back. And.
- [10:16]
Aaron Cowan
Well, obviously, mgm. Let me start with your question first. MGM has a massive database of customers, right? So, you know, I assume the Vegas properties have guys that come from China, they come from Japan, they'll use that database to do it. They also have a loyalty program. I unfortunately made a bad investment in a company called Rio The Rio, which was in Vegas, which we bought when they separate. When Caesars merged with El Dorado, they had to shed an asset. That was the Rio. I did an investment with a couple of friends, and we were buying the thing at $200 per square foot. The thing we forgot was when you separated from Caesars, you lost the loyalty program. And that ended up.
- [10:58]
David
And I have two quick questions from the audience.
- [11:01]
Aaron Cowan
I got to ask Jay Powell's question.
- [11:02]
David
Hold on. Question. And then from the audience.
- [11:04]
Aaron Cowan
Let me get his first.
- [11:05]
Dan Dreyfus
Yeah, the entertainment question.
- [11:06]
Aaron Cowan
I don't know the answer. I don't know the answer to that. If it's. If he can make them better, it will help. But as I'm saying, this is not really an Asian casino play that
- [11:21]
Oleg Nodelman
if
- [11:22]
Aaron Cowan
you look at the presentations, which is really cool. They are not. They barely mention it. So what One of the things we happened beside we were hoping one of the cat. So look, I worked at sac and one of the things we focus on is catalyst path. So what was the catalyst path? The catalyst path was they would have an investor day, blah, blah, blah. Barry just showed his cards.
- [11:42]
Kyle Samani
So.
- [11:43]
David
But you know, Aaron, two questions. Caesars left Dubai waiting for a license. Why would this be different for MGM? That's question one. And then question two is, the Osaka casino was approved in 2023. Why was the market ignoring this hidden asset until the bid?
- [12:01]
Kyle Samani
Sure.
- [12:01]
Aaron Cowan
Let me answer the stack. So what's also cool about this idea was. So I've been doing this for 29 years when they opened Macau. So wind started as a Vegas property, then open Macao. The market started caring about it about three years before it opened. So that the answer is they should care about it. The reality is it tends to be about three years before it opens. Well, we're almost in that time frame, which is why we think it's opportunistically the right period of time. You know, regarding the question with Caesars, look, this is an option. As I told you. Somebody built this project for them, they are running it for them, and they were intelligent enough to leave 300,000 square feet of empty space in case they get a casino. Well, if that happens, great. If it doesn't, you know, you're still going to double more than double your money. So, you know, if it happens, you triple your money.
- [12:57]
David
Free option, you're saying?
- [12:58]
Moderator
All right.
- [12:58]
Aaron Cowan
Free option.
- [12:59]
Moderator
Well done. Big round of applause. Thanks, guys.
- [13:02]
Kyle Samani
Appreciate it.
- [13:02]
Moderator
Nicely done, Aaron.
- [13:04]
Gavin
Next up, Daniel. Long time no see. So today we're going to talk talent, energy. But first, the anatomy of A power cycle. So a power cycle typically goes like this. In normal times, power demand grows about GDP. So if GDP grows 2%, power demand grows 2. If GDP grows 3, power demand goes 3. And there's moments in time where we get technological breakthroughs and a lot of those technological breakthroughs are very power intensive. So power demand spikes and once everybody adopts that technology, it trends back down to its on algorithm GDP growth. And then you go through the efficiencies phase where we say let's try to conserve and figure out ways to consume less power. And then the cycle starts, starts all over again. So you know, in history, the big technological boom that sent power demand skyrocketing was appliances and air conditioning. Everybody had to get their kettles and the air con. Then in the 70s and 80s and 90s, demand normalized again. But then the 2000s were all about efficiencies. You know, we had like LED lighting, smart H Vac tinted windows, smart electronics. And at the same time, as I said earlier, we were like, you know, know, ripping down all our power hungry infrastructure like aluminum smelters and moving over China. So we had two decades of effectively no power demand and now we're just coming out of it and starting a technological cycle again where power demand is going to really start to explode from these sort of high 2% numbers you're seeing on the screen now. I want to say something right now that is incredibly important. We do not need AI demand to keep the power markets incredibly tight for the next 20 years. AI demand just turbocharges. That's all it does. And it creates shortages. So just remember that early in my career I was on a panel with Sam Zell. Interestingly, it was a panel on opportunities in Mongolia. I was looking at a copper mine and he was looking at real estate. There was one thing he said that stuck with me for the rest of my career is he said if you can buy an asset, a hard asset, at below replacement cost for an asset that's going to be needed in the future, where we're going to need to build new capacity of that asset, then you buy that asset at the discount to replacement cost, you hold it and you sell it at a big premium to replacement cost when the market wakes up. That's exactly we did with Equity Office Properties, sold it at the peak of the market, but bought it at a discount to replacement value. Talon Energy is a power producer. They have 2 gigawatts of nuclear power and they've got 6 gigawatts of natural gas baseload power today in the stock market, as a good speculation, you could probably purchase this company at a $25 billion enterprise value. The replacement cost is 45 billion. And because they've got debt, it means that the equity value just to get to replacement cost is more than a double from where it's trading today. And if you follow Sam's playbook, then we ultimately end this cycle at a big premium to replacement value. So when I see this, I say the plan for America on the power side has to be this. Make America great again. Copy China. If you look what China did over the last 20 years, we started out this cycle with having 2x the power generation that China had. Fast forward to today. China has three times the power generation capacity that we have now. If you believe that artificial intelligence is going to be responsible for scientific breakthroughs, you either have it or you don't have the scientific breakthroughs. You believe that artificial intelligence is going to drive robotics, you either have it or you don't have that productivity from the robots. If you believe that artificial intelligence is going to be helpful for national security and military affairs, then you either have it or you're dead. This is an absolutely mandatory build out that we have to do, otherwise we're going to fall behind. Because at the end of the day, what is a data center? In my world, in the commodities world, I look at the data center as the exact same thing as a refinery. In a traditional hydrocarbon refinery, you put oil in, crude oil in, you refine it into jet fuel or gasoline for your car. With a data center, you put electricity in, and on the other end, instead of gasoline or jet fuel, out comes photons or tokens or intelligence, whatever you want to call it, but it's the same thing. Big capital intensive asset, $50 billion per gigawatt. And power, just like electricity, just like oil, is the input to that refinery. So here's Jensen and he was just recently quoted that we need 1,000 times more power than we currently have. Now, if that's remotely true, we need every single source of power that you can imagine. We need hundreds of gigawatts of nuclear, we need solar, we need orbital, we need it all. If this is even remotely true. But the challenge, as we spoke about before, is the supply chain, right? All of these. A data center competes for the same supply chain of the critical minerals that space launches and orbital data centers do. Power plants need all the same nickel superalloys that it takes to launch rockets and the silver that goes into these photovoltaic cells and so on. There's going to be shortages of everything and delays everywhere. My point here is we are just going to need every solution that we can throw at this for the foreseeable future. So here's a little region in the US called the pjm, Pennsylvania, Jersey, Maryland. This is a forecast from the grid operator where they say that over the next 10 years we're going to need 106 gigawatts of new power in the PJAM in just one little area of the US now in 10 years in geological time, that's like tomorrow morning, right? We're all so used to Internet time, you press a button and you get your food delivered to you or your car picks you up in two seconds. Building infrastructure happens in geological time. Ten years to build out 106 gigawatts is literally a nanosecond from now. And you see that thermal coal retirements, we ain't retiring those coal plants because there's no world where we're going to be building 100 gigawatts in 10 years. That's the size of what Japan consumes today for one little part of the US and what I'll say is those that understand the supply chain and what goes into building all this, everybody's in panic mode because we know that we don't have the raw materials to meet this level of demand that's coming our way. So that's going to keep existing capacity and power prices very tight. Now the data center and the hyperscalers are in a panic. They're trying everything they can to source as much power as they can under long term PPAs, power purchase price agreements at fixed prices for 20 years. There's a famous example. I thought Microsoft was a green company, but they went and convinced Constellation Energy, which is a company that owns a Three Mile island nuclear reactor, the one that melted down and created the nuclear meltdown that gave nuclear a bad name for 30 years. It was Microsoft that told them they needed to start it up. And in order to incentivize to stimulate their hand to wallet reflex to start this thing up. They said power prices stay are $50amegawatt hour. We'll pay you 100 a year for 20 years minimum price for you guys to start this up. Here we have it. Three Mile island brought to you by Microsoft Azure. It's getting harder to do these deals because the regulators are saying wait a minute, if you're taking all this power off the grid for your data center, how are we going to heat the homes of our customers? And so we're getting ourselves into the moment of what I call crunch time. So just to finish up, here are the numbers on Talon. The stock today is sort of in the high three hundreds. If they just do absolutely nothing, just absolutely nothing, just sit there and run the business, let their Amazon data center contract roll up, these guys will be generating $50 a share of free cash flow per year. Again, the stock is in the high 300. So it's about seven times free cash flow. Good infrastructure assets in the US traded about 15 times. So that's pretty good. You get a double for basically management just sitting around and doing nothing. But if they continue to figure out ways to sign contracts with data centers at premium prices or if power prices go up, I mean the amazing thing right now is in the PJM where these guys operate, the power price is still too low to stimulate new capacity. The math still doesn't work, which is really mind boggling. So if power prices go up a bit, they do more deals. You get to $70 a share of recurring annual free cash flow. Put a 15 multiple on that, that's 1,050. But then if they get into building power plants, and right now the regulator is telling these companies to go sit in a room, power producer, data center, come in a room, make a deal so that you build power and get a good return on it and the data center gets their power, gets a good return on it and, and Talon is in a pole position to be able to do this. If they just build like 4 gigawatts of the 100 gigawatts that we need, you could get up to over $100 a share of free cash flow. The stock's in the high three hundreds today, so go and buy the shares. It's a good speculation and we can chat.
- [23:19]
Moderator
All right. Not financial advice. Gavin, go.
- [23:21]
David
Gavin, go.
- [23:22]
Jake
I'm just very curious. How do you think about regulatory risks here? Nobody likes their electricity prices going up. AI is an increasingly political issue. Just like how do you think about that risk?
- [23:35]
Gavin
We need AI and we need to figure this out. And so there's different ways to skin a cat here, right? My personal view is during peak hours, right, if you go drive down a Highway at 4 in the morning, you would sit there and say, why do we have all this highway capacity? This is crazy. But then you go on that same highway at rush hour, you're like, oh, we don't have enough highway capacity, there's not enough lanes. Power is the same thing. There's only a few hours a day where you really stress the system. And so I think the working solution to get around this regulatory issue is you do the PPAs with the data centers. You force the data centers to throw a ton of battery behind it and some peakers just to get through that really intense period. And then that's a good band aid solution until we build more power. So there's ways to do this. Human ingenuity is going to win here. We're going to get our data centers and consumer power bills are going to be, I think, relatively under control. They're going to go up. They're going to be under control.
- [24:29]
David
Okay, Dan, I have three questions from the audience, really good ones. Number one, does your thesis actually need behind the meter co location to clear, or is it just a bet that clean firm baseload is scarce enough that it doesn't matter whether power flows in front of or behind the meter?
- [24:46]
Gavin
It's the latter. And that's why I gave three scenarios. Right? The $50 a share of earnings per share, again, high $300 stock, right? $50 a share of earnings. Nothing has to happen. You just sit, right? And then you double your money. Now, if you get more behind the meter or even front of the meter, that's how you get up to that $70 a share of earnings from 50. And then if you get up to the 70, but start building new capacity, then you get to the $100 plus.
- [25:11]
David
Okay, question two from Brad. How do you think about competition for power from things like fuel cells, gas turbines, aerodyt turbines, orbital compute, and other sort of ipps, independent power producers?
- [25:24]
Gavin
We need all of it. We need all of it. We, we, you know, fuel cells and you know, the caterpillar solar turbines. These are fantastic bridge solutions. But the cost to run these things, the LCOE is like through the roof. But you know, look, to build a $50 billion data center, you don't want it to sit idle for three years waiting for your baseload ccgt. So you do whatever it takes. You don't give a crap what you pay for that bridge solution. And so we're finding ways through fuel cells, through, you know, caterpillar solar turbines, hopefully through orbital data centers where we can alleviate this because I want AI to happen in a really big way. And we're gonna need all the above.
- [26:00]
David
Okay, question three, by the way, great questions, guys. Thank you for these. Is the right terminal multiple for talent. If the business mix shifts from merchant IPP to contracted infrastructure.
- [26:12]
Gavin
Fabulous question.
- [26:13]
David
And, and, and the addendum here. And what percentage of EBITDA needs to be contracted before the market should rerate it.
- [26:21]
Gavin
So that's a great question. And, and I only had six minutes to do this and I think I blew through my time, so I couldn't get into this kind of detail. But it's something I would have really wanted to get into. So whoever asked that, thank you. I just use the 15 multiple because it's sort of a blended multiple between the contracted stuff which will get a big premium multiple because, you know, it's a bond like cash flow stream and bond like cash flow streams trade at a small spread to Treasuries. And so Treasuries if they're at 5% should trade at 20 times plus some growth or whatever, plus or minus the uncontracted stuff. The merchant stuff that has spot market exposure is more volatile, less visible. That should trade at a lower multiple. We can get into the minutia, but just suffice to say, the more contracts, the higher the multiple, the less the lower the multiple. Use 15 times is a good rule of thumb and you'll probably get to the right answer, which is what I used.
- [27:08]
David
That last question from Daniel Schur. Thank you for that, Dan. Thank you. That was great.
- [27:13]
Gavin
Thanks.
- [27:18]
Oleg Nodelman
My name is Oleg Nodelman. I'm the founder and managing director of Eagle Capital, San Francisco based value oriented biotech fund that I started about 13 years ago. Thanks a lot to the besties for having me here. I'm a huge fan of the pod, like I'm sure all of us are. And I know how challenged Science Corner can get. So I wrote this in a way that even David Sachs would appreciate and pay attention to if. If he were here.
- [27:45]
Moderator
Well, paradoxically, he's taking a nap. Which is what he normally does during science.
- [27:49]
Aaron Cowan
Exactly.
- [27:52]
Oleg Nodelman
Generally speaking, investing in biotech companies is a horrible idea sandwiched somewhere between movies, wineries and spacs. In fact, our sector often feels a lot more like a casino than an actual financial market. And most of the tourists who are investing are playing the slots. Of course, at EcoR1, we consider ourselves poker players in a sector where virtually everyone else is a momentum investor. Betting on science, we focus on margin of safety. We're one of the few funds not managed by PhDs or MDs. And that's by design because we don't want to fall in love with the science. We fall in love with the risk reward. And like the slide says, we want to monetize other kids science projects. This is my 25th year investing in biotech. I started my career with an 11 year stint at another fund and launched Ecor1 in 2013. Humble beginnings with 13 million since inception. We've 10x to our investors and annualized at 20%. And today we have about 2 1/2 billion under management. We're lucky to have long term partners, many of whom are biotech entrepreneurs themselves and have been with us since day one. And we recently reopened for the first time in four years. Today I'm going to tell you about a company that's on the front lines of the war on cancer. Military terminology has been used when describing treatments for the disease since the early 70s when President Nixon signed the National Cancer Act. The warfare analogy is actually perfect. The warfare is actually perfect for cancer because both domains are trying to accomplish the exact same thing. Find the enemy, figure out the best weapon to kill them, and have minimal unwanted casualties along the way. First, a quick history of how this war has evolved. Early surgical cancer treatment and radiation was akin to a medieval siege. Level the entire castle, burn the surrounding village and hope the enemy was left somewhere in the rubble. Chemo actually evolved from an accidental observation during World War I that mustard gas killed rapidly dividing tissue. Tumor cells divide fast, so doctors would flood a patient's body with chemo and hoped it killed the enemy faster than it killed allies. Unfortunately, hair, skin, gut and marrow cells also divide quickly and the poison doesn't discriminate. First generation targeted therapies were next. Like a GPS guided munition. Instead of carpet bombing every dividing cell, you identify the enemy's command and control center and destroy it. The problem, like with any weapon, is that the enemy adapts and hides. And in cancer these are called resistant mutations. Immunotherapy was first introduced to patients a decade ago. With IO, you don't send in your own troops. You recruit local allies, also known as T cells, and let them do the fighting for you. Spectacular when it works, but highly dependent on the terrain or the tumor microenvironment. This brings me to the reason we're here today. Modern day radiopharmaceuticals, like a swarm of microdrones small enough to navigate the bloodstream and find their target by molecular recognition. Then detonate a precisely sized warhead with a blast radius of 100 microns or the diameter of a single cell. An autonomous assassination with the force of a bunker buster and minimum collateral damage. The company I'm going to tell you about today is Actis Oncology. The ticker is AKTS. The company has a billion dollar market cap, a $500 million enterprise value, and a stockpile of cash, which should last them over three years, long past critical milestones that are coming next year. Actis was started five years ago, but recently went public with a $300 million IPO that was 18 times oversubscribed and backstopped with $100 million order by Eli Lilly the folks who bring you all the weight loss drugs the company has designed. A platform that can carry any radioactive payload, is complex enough to go after a variety of targets and small enough to clear your body with minimal side effects. The beautiful thing about this approach is that physicians can verify target engagement in early clinical trials with imaging. This significantly de risks clinical development because you know the drug is getting to the tumor, another de risking strategy. For their first few programs, Actis chose known valid targets like Nectin4 and B7H3. Nectin4 is critical in bladder cancer, and the company's second program, targeting B7H3, is even more ambitious, expressed on every major solid tumor, including the big three prostate, colorectal and lung. Actus started clinical trials last year and is publicly guided to initial clinical data in both of these lead programs in 2027, with Nectin 4 coming as early as Q1. So you won't have to wait long. If either program shows a signal, the company is likely to get value not only for those programs, but the entire mini protein platform. This is the holy grail in biotech, getting value simply for the promise of what might come. What's even more compelling is there's an amazing amount of interest in radiotherapies from pharma. The big ones, including Bristol, Novartis, Bayer and Lilly, who backstopped the Axis IPO, have been building radiotherapy capabilities, and they're hungry for assets to add to their pipelines. There's been 15 billion in M& A in deal making and radiotherapy in the last few years, and we're very much in the early innings. The neatest thing about this modality is that it's very hard to replicate. Generics generally don't traffic in radiopharma, and because the class involves radioisotopes, it's off limits to China. So unlike most of biotech, there's a real moat. And now the obligatory safety warning. Actis is not for everyone. You should consult your biotech analyst before purchasing access. Initiating a position may cause increased anxiety, reduced sleep to the night series. Sometimes drops in stock rates occur in biotech immediately after investing. You may experience sudden volatility due to handling risk for competitors. If stock declines are experienced for formal reason, call your Broker immediately to increase your position. Remember, serious safety concerns have risen in other companies clinical development programs. Will no safety concerns occur with any access clinical program date? They may in the future. The use of many proteins deliver 84 sales has not been proven. Access to no market products and thus no referring revenue dilution for equity offerings may occur. In the event of a secondary offering, immediately schedule a call with access management team to discuss placing an order. It's notoriously challenging to value biotech companies because when you risk adjust and discount back, you pretty quickly get to zero. For earlier stage opportunities like this, we like to triangulate. We think Actis could be worth 10 billion or $200 per share if even one of their programs makes it to market. And in this case you have a lot of outs.
- [34:41]
Dan Dreyfus
I'm not familiar with why radioisotopes are off limits to China.
- [34:46]
Oleg Nodelman
So in this particular case, Actis radioisotope payload is actinium and actinium is manufactured from Radium 233 which was used in our own nuclear programs in the US in the, in the 50s and 60s. So it's a waste product from there. So actinium is not even available in other countries like China because they had a completely different, their own program was completely different with enriched uranium and plutonium.
- [35:15]
Dan Dreyfus
But the risk for a lot of biotech and China replication came about that Amgen Sanofi Supreme Court case, didn't it, where you could make a small. Because it basically said all patents are composition of matter patents. So you could change one amino acid, get around the patent. And China's basically done that with a lot of biologics that are patented in the US and Europe. They just rip them off and then you attach the radio emitting radioisotope to the molecule and you, you can kind of chase it. That's kind of why a lot of biotech's been depressed. Is that not true?
- [35:45]
Aaron Cowan
Yeah.
- [35:46]
Oleg Nodelman
So with radioisotopes, again, because you have to have a manufacturing supply that you have to source locally in the US we haven't seen any competition coming from China at all.
- [35:59]
Dan Dreyfus
And if they have a successful readout though, would it not be like the case that someone in China would say, hey, let's go get some of the necessary radioisotopes.
- [36:08]
Oleg Nodelman
And I'm sure they can do it for the Chinese market, but in terms of then transferring that over here, we haven't seen it or kind of any wind of it at all.
- [36:19]
Dan Dreyfus
And so then my last question, I'm sorry for monopolizing. Why do you think the markets Discounted the value so much since the ipo.
- [36:25]
Oleg Nodelman
Oh, gosh. Given the return in biotech valuation, it's pretty classic biotech. So it's traded flat since the ipo. Biotech investors are so insanely short term oriented that even though we're now call it eight or nine months from data, that's still way too long. And so our expectation is that the folks will start accumulating this in the second half in anticipation of the data coming in the first quarter.
- [36:46]
David
Gavin, you had a question?
- [36:47]
Jake
Yeah, sure. So in the distant past, I ran a biopharmaceutical fund and it's a very hard job. Congratulations on those numbers. But I ran that fund right after the human genome genome had been sequenced and there was an expectation that the sequencing of the genome was going to lead to this explosion in therapies, personalized medicines, et cetera, et cetera. And I don't think, broadly speaking, we've made as much progress over the last 25 years as maybe people thought in the early 2000s. And my hypothesis is that the genome is too big of a problem space for the human mind or software written by humans and AI is going to unlock a lot of kind of revolutionary therapies. So my question to you, I will just admit, is a selfish question. It is not about your stock pitch, which is great. It's what do you think the odds are that in the lifetimes of everyone in this room, the average human lifespan in a developed country extends well past 100 to 125, 150.
- [37:49]
Oleg Nodelman
I would take the over on that in no small part because we already have one of the best longevity drugs out there, and folks don't even realize it in the glip ones and the obesity drugs. So one of the only things that's ever been shown in actual, actual data to extend life is caloric restriction. And that's literally what all the obesity drugs do. So I'm sure half the people in this room are on one of them. And that's just the beginning because it's trained people that you can inject yourself with something and have healthy living through pharmaceuticals. So I think that's only going to continue.
- [38:19]
David
Oh, I got two questions from the audience. First, one, as the launch costs per kilogram continue to fall, is there a credible pathway to use space and microgravity as a therapeutic variable, given that cancer cells appear to behave differently in low gravity environments?
- [38:35]
Oleg Nodelman
That is a great question that's probably not applicable to this.
- [38:39]
David
Okay, and then the second question, what would be a technological breakthrough that could disrupt precision radiotherapy as a result of AI at scale to drug development and pre cancer screening.
- [38:51]
Oleg Nodelman
Yeah, another awesome question. There's a small skunks work project within Actis AI project. So with all these biotech companies, they have their little proprietary data sets that they hope to leverage with various insights. So a company like this with their mini proteins and everything else they're trying to accomplish, they have their own little tiny group of PhD data scientist nerds who are seeing if they can leverage that in a pretty decent way.
- [39:15]
Dan Dreyfus
So it's been really hard to get CAR t in solid tumors. Is it the case that these kind of personalized peptide based immunotherapy therapies are showing some efficacy in some solid tumors? And is that a space that's going to expand and kind of intersect here?
- [39:33]
Oleg Nodelman
What's most promising that I think a lot of folks have probably heard of is a new drug for pancreatic cancer from a company called Revmed with just another targeted therapy. So for now there's not a huge amount of progress from.
- [39:47]
Dan Dreyfus
And have you looked at D proteins before? These kind of right handed proteins that seem to be able to penetrate solid tumors?
- [39:53]
Oleg Nodelman
Well, so one of the neat things about these mini proteins is they're hopefully of the right size to be able to deliver their payload inside of the tumors.
- [40:02]
David
Incredible. Oleg, thank you.
- [40:03]
Dan Dreyfus
Thank you.
- [40:04]
Moderator
Well done.
- [40:09]
Dan Dreyfus
By the way.
- [40:10]
David
By the way, somebody just YOLO'd into the stock while Oleg was on stage. It's up 6% like the last. Don't do that while we're all trying to buy as well, please. Come on.
- [40:20]
Kyle Samani
Morning everyone. My name is Kyle Samani. Thank you for being with us at the all in liquidity today. Thanks to the besties for organizing. Today we're going to be talking about a little known asset, little crypto asset called geodnet which is building the rails for AI. So let's jump in. Quick bit about me. I founded a firm called Multicoin Capital about eight and a half years ago. I stepped down a few months ago and in my time there I was probably most well known for leading all three rounds of investment in Solana prior to Solana's network launch in 2020. Have been deep in the crypto space for a very long time and I thought this would be a very natural forum to talk about a very interesting investment at the intersection of crypto and AI. Also, big shout out to David Sachs. Unfortunately he's not here but David did seed multicoin back in the day. So thank you David for believing in me very early. All right, let's get into Geodnet. So the way to understand Geonet first is to look at gps. Probably everyone in this room has been in the situation on the left where you're using your phone and your phone is in the wrong spot facing the wrong way. Right here you can see this guy looks like he's facing a wall according to his phone. Geodnet fundamentally is a new uses a technology called RTK or real time kinematics where you can localize your location down to about 2 centimeters for context, GPS, roughly the precision is about 2 meters. So you're getting about 100x accuracy for very precise geolocation. As you can imagine, any form of robotics can make use of rtk. Drones being the very obvious example. I'll touch on a few more. There's in a couple minutes here. Today, Geodnet is the world's largest RTK network in the world. And it's also the fastest growing. The three companies you see on the left here, Trimble, Hexagon and Topcon have all been building RTK networks in some form or fashion for call it 20 to 30 years. All of them combined have roughly 12,000 base stations deployed around the world. Geodnet was founded in 2021, began building out the network in 2022 and today they are roughly twice the size of the next three guys combined. Today, Geodnet is live in 150 countries around the world, more than 11,000 cities, and covers roughly 80% of the global population, excluding some sanctioned countries. So this thing is really growing quickly. You might say, how did these guys build this network so fast? And the key is really this decentralized crypto model. So here we're looking at literally a photo of a Geodnet base station on the roof of above someone's house. The, the global geodet network. Those 22,000 nodes are not being built and deployed by someone that looks like AT&T or Verizon. Those base stations are being deployed by any random guy or hobbyist or professional or small business owner who wants to make some extra money. You can go on the geodnods website today, you can buy one of these base stations. They're a few hundred bucks. You put it on your roof of your house or your small business, it broadcasts radio waves, you make money, you actually get paid in GEODE tokens, which is the really cool part about this incentive system to bootstrap this thing to get it off the ground. So the geo Net network started about four years ago doing this Today it's now the largest, fastest growing in the world by a pretty wide margin. If you want a sense of scale here, we're looking at their coverage in the United States. Obviously every single major metro is covered. But even if you look at most of the rural parts of the country, you're covering actually the vast majority of even the rural areas. Let's talk about some of the customers and use cases for this. Start with agriculture first. The USDA actually launched a couple years ago a program to encourage farmers and ranchers to use precise ag technologies, including RTK networks. Today actually, the USDA is now actually subsidizing many farmers and ranchers all over the country to adopt high precision ag, most of which is powered by geodnet. Getting into some specific examples of that here we're looking at what's called a robotic mule. This is made by a company called Burrow. Obviously this is transporting some grapes, you could put anything on. This has pretty obvious application for almost any farm or ranch you can imagine. With the advent and computer vision, CPUs, batteries, all the other AI stuff, these things are growing like hotcakes. All of them are going to be powered by GeoNet or something like it. Here we're looking at John Deere. They have a new service that they rolled out recently called Global Unmanned Spraying Systems or gus. These things drive around, they literally spray plants with pesticides and other things of that like that. I did actually confirm this morning there are wineries here in Napa that are actually using John Deere GUS vehicles. That was pretty cool. So if you have some wine tonight, maybe it was powered by, by Gus, which is powered by GeoNet. Obviously. Autonomous vehicles has a pretty obvious application for this. TomTom is one of Geodnet's customers. TomTom is a supplier to basically every, every AV program in the world, excluding maybe a couple. And today TomTom is using GeoNet's data to update their maps to get them more accurate and precise as they need to cover every square inch basically around the planet. One of my favorite use cases are kind of the next wave of consumer robotics which are getting a lot of hype these days. I think the most obvious one are robotic lawnmowers. I don't think anyone loves to mow their lawn. Robotic lawnmowers are now actually rolling out at pretty good scale. They're estimated they're going to sell 1 million robotic lawnmowers this year made by companies like Yarbo, Sunseeker and others. All of those guys are all powered by geodnet. Next up, let's get to drones. The world's largest drone manufacturer, dji is a geodet customer. It's not in all of their models, but it is in a lot of their models. And so obviously DJI is sending a ton of traffic now over Geonet. In the coming months and years, as DJI wounds down in the US and you have new wave of American drivers manufacturers pop up, I'm going to venture to guess that most, if not all of them are going to end up on the geodnet network as well. The Geonet team is based in the us, has deep roots here. What I love about geodnet is it's a very obvious network effect. Networks affect network affects business. This thing looks like a natural telecom, right? You have base stations kind of all over the world. You got to cover the whole planet. Telecoms naturally form monopolies. Historically, I think the same is likely to be true here Today. Geonet is the world's largest and fastest growing network with also the lowest cost structure by a very wide margin. Because of this decentralized nature where people just put these things on top of their house. In terms of where the business at, the business just crossed about $11 million in annualized run rate a few days ago and it's growing more than 3x year over year. I think it's going to probably more than triple over the next 12 months. What's really cool about Geodnet is how capital efficient it is and how they're actually returning capital to token holders. So today the Geo Net network is taking of that 11 million in revenue. Roughly 80% of it is being used to make open market purchases of Geo tokens. And this is all visible on the Solana blockchain. They have all the addresses are published and stuff. So it's all verifiable in real time. That means $8.8 million right now per year is going into buying Geo Net tokens on the open market. What's amazing is that last 20% is they're covering all their R and D costs and scaling out. Now their business development, development team. With a business like this, of course, like it's a pretty small network of customers. The guys who work at John Deere know the guys who work at DJI who know the guys who work at TomTom. And so this thing is now growing virally amongst this kind of core community of customers. And as you can imagine, with customers who sign up for a service like this, they tend to ramp up their usage of that service over time. So once Someone starts rolling out geonet in the first year, they're usually spending about $60,000 per year. After two years though, they're usually spending about $170,000 per year year. So the average Geonet customer is growing their revenue with GeoNet about 3x in that second year. Obviously then we look at their just their customers they've signed up in the last two years. You can see they 5x their customer base last year. Those are net new customers. So applying some pretty simple math here, you can see they have a very clear path to more than 3x this year as this thing ramps up. Just to wrap things up, summary. Geodet is the world's largest RTK network, growing the fastest. It has really obvious network effects and it's is likely to be a very natural monopoly growing 3x over year with a bunch of flagship customers and brands that you all know. Obviously we have this huge physical AI tailwind behind us now. Robotics and all the other amazing stuff happening and they're returning capital to shareholders. The token does trade on the Solana blockchain if you want to buy it trades 24,7. The ticker is Geode G E O D. So if you want to actually get some Geode tokens, I encourage you to sign up for a crypto wallet, a Solana wallet and you can go ahead and buy Geode tokens from there. And with that I think we are ready for some Q and A.
- [48:36]
David
Awesome.
- [48:38]
Kyle Samani
What's the market cap? Oh, sorry. It's trading about 150 million on a fully diluted basis. If you were to go look at any of the crypto price websites like CoinGecko or CoinMarketCap, they're going to show you something like 60 or 70 million. That's because not all of the tokens are floating yet. But the fully diluted number is about one.
- [48:52]
Moderator
Is there a corporation behind it or is this just like a project in the Cayman Islands in Panama with a board that nobody knows who's on it? Tell us about governance.
- [49:04]
Kyle Samani
So the Geodnet team is a US based corporation. There are four teams in San Francisco. The CEO's name is Mike Horton. Really, really good guy. Has been building in this kind of IoT smart device.
- [49:14]
Moderator
Explain the relationship between the corporate entity and the token and which one should we own?
- [49:21]
Kyle Samani
You should own the token. I own a lot of token as you might imagine. I don't own any of the equity. The relationship is Geonet the customer the company is facing John Deere, dji, all these companies and they have a contractual relationship with the Geonet foundation to use 80% of their revenues to buy tokens off the open market.
- [49:39]
Moderator
And that corporation raised venture capital or anything?
- [49:43]
Kyle Samani
Yes, my prior company, Multicoin, actually led around in GSA that previously.
- [49:47]
David
Okay, Kyle, I have, I have many questions from the audience, so bear with me. Question 1. Do you like Helium as much, which is Geodnet for 5G signal?
- [49:56]
Kyle Samani
Yes, I actually led Multicoin's investment in helium six or seven years ago and continue to be a very big long term believer. They actually had big news go out this morning, but yeah, I'm a big helium fan.
- [50:07]
David
Question 2. There's a long list of Deepin projects that have failed because people just don't value the token rewards. Why is this any different?
- [50:15]
Kyle Samani
I mean they're returning capital to shareholders. This thing is returning $8.8 million to shareholders, is trading at $150 million valuation and it's going to grow 3x this year. It's an unbelievably cheap asset. It's just people aren't paying attention because it's crypto bear market right now.
- [50:30]
Dan Dreyfus
From Sam, it's a securitized interest in the cash flows from the customers.
- [50:36]
Kyle Samani
Effectively, yes. It is a revenue, it is a,
- [50:38]
Dan Dreyfus
it's a revenue share token, correct?
- [50:40]
David
Correct.
- [50:40]
Kyle Samani
80%.
- [50:41]
David
Okay, so the more John Deere pays Geodnet, the company, the more you basically deprecate the tokens which should cause the token.
- [50:50]
Kyle Samani
They're buying tokens in the open market, correct? Yes.
- [50:53]
David
Okay, from Sam, what accrues value, the equity or the token?
- [50:56]
Dan Dreyfus
Similar to what we just covered.
- [50:57]
David
How does the value accrual mechanisms square or not with current securities laws or what's contemplated in the Clarity Act?
- [51:04]
Kyle Samani
Yeah. So the one answer to your question is the, the tokens are the ones accruing value because they're taking 80% and buying the other 20% is obviously funding operations. They have engineers, salespeople, all that stuff. So that's all there. And being funded in terms of securities laws, the Clarity act passing is certainly very good for geonet. I'm not a lawyer, so I'm not going to tell you that it passes the bar set in the Clarity act. But I can tell you I'm an optimist and I've been very involved in the Clarity act and I'm not too worried about it.
- [51:30]
Dan Dreyfus
Okay, Can I ask about the business just this real quick? So John Deere, I know this space somewhat well. I used to manage a company called Precision Planting in Agriculture and John Deere makes their own RTK systems. So when you run a piece of equipment that relies on rtk, you're buying in the construction industry, Topcon or Leica or Trimble or John Deere and you install the RTK base stations and you run your equipment. Why would John Deere and others want to rely on this system as a different like, why is it better than like the systems that they're already using? It wasn't quite clear to me.
- [52:07]
Kyle Samani
I mean capex versus opex, right? Like right. These networks are all over the world now. They're running at very low cost. Geonet is probably a third to half, sorry, a third to a quarter of the price than buying up your own Capex and doing it. And it's just available everywhere. So now it just reduces the sales cycle time for John Deere. When they just say buy the tractor, it's good.
- [52:26]
Dan Dreyfus
There's another big push right now for microsats to be an alternative to GPS in a way that they can actually provide sub centimeter resolution, effectively replacing both GPS and RTK using a Mesh network from SpaceX launched or actually SpaceX. I don't know if SpaceX looked at doing this, but I know that there is a very well funded company that is trying to put up microsats to basically replace GPS and rtk. Doesn't that ultimately kind of wash out the need to have all these earth based base stations?
- [52:59]
Kyle Samani
There's no chance they can compete on cost because just sending things to space with satellites, that's so. I mean these Geonet base stations are a few hundred bucks. Like you're just not gonna compete on cost with geodet.
- [53:10]
David
You don't need to think that this is a viable replacement at scale and saturation for GPS itself.
- [53:15]
Kyle Samani
No, GPS is definitely very different because
- [53:19]
David
the SLA is different.
- [53:20]
Dan Dreyfus
You've got to have ubiquity for GPS for GPS alternative, which is why you have to have the satellites. You got to have enough satellites. But if you get enough satellites, you can actually get to RTK precision and you don't need to have the big expensive gps.
- [53:33]
David
You'd have a hybrid situation where you have a bunch of GEO and LEO plus a bunch of base stations all over the place, that hybrid situation probably
- [53:42]
Dan Dreyfus
you could actually get the LEO alone can replace all of the GEO stuff. That's the goal. And then if you get enough of
- [53:49]
David
them, which SpaceX unlocks and Kyle, what about other tokens? When you think about other compute tasks, like work to be done, for example, there's a bunch of tokens that have emerged in Distributed training. How did you hone in on this and exclude the others? Meaning prefer this over that?
- [54:09]
Kyle Samani
I mean I met the geodet founder years ago. He pitched us and I've gotten to know him and followed it. The distributed training stuff, there's a whole bunch of people trying it. I'm pretty skeptical. I don't think any of it's going to work. The distributed inference stuff is possible, although it has not worked as well as we would have hoped. I did put some money behind that a few years ago. It's working, but not a plus. One last thing actually David, on your prior question I want to highlight is also energy use. Going to space just consumes way more energy than going to a base station that's on the ground. And so yeah, for a tractor maybe that doesn't matter. But for a drone or for any other battery sensitive application, ground is always going to be the preferred solution.
- [54:46]
David
Super interesting.
- [54:47]
Dan Dreyfus
Well done Kyle.
- [54:47]
David
Thank you.
- [54:48]
Moderator
Thank you so much. Thanks guys.
- [54:51]
Dan Dreyfus
Before we vote Chamath, give your feedback.
- [54:53]
David
Here's what I like. I apply the Stan Druckenmiller school of invest and investigate. I really believe in it. Yes. If you don't have any skin in the game, you don't care. And this is the kind of stuff that I love. I love hearing ideas like this. I love all four. My difference is in sizing. So you know, there's certain asymmetric alpha that each one of these exhibits and then there's very different downside risk for each of them and then there's also liquidity issues. So for example, like I love Kyle's idea. The problem is I could not get enough working for me where so I don't even think I could get a million dollars in today. It would to scale in, it would move the money market. So I would have to, I'd have to probably. I'd be like 10, 20, 30,000 and then maybe start to buy into it. Talon, I think they could absorb tens of millions and people wouldn't bite an eyelash. The biotech company, the issue there is that I think that there is, as you said Freeberg, this discontinuous illiquidity, zero risk. But then there's the 10x upside. So there's just like huge.
- [55:58]
Dan Dreyfus
Lily will bid for it and then
- [55:59]
David
MGM I think is just that. So I think MGM and Talent are the ones you could have huge sizing in.
- [56:03]
Dan Dreyfus
Right.
- [56:04]
David
And then the other ones, I think you have a piece because they're like lottery tickets.
- [56:07]
Dan Dreyfus
I think your point on mgm.
- [56:09]
David
Okay, wait, hold On. Let me just review. So company number one was MGM and
- [56:15]
Aaron Cowan
that was M Resorts.
- [56:16]
David
Okay. Company number two, Talon Allen Energy. Company number three, Actus
- [56:25]
Dan Dreyfus
and then Geodnet.
- [56:26]
David
Geodnet. Not company, but I guess token.
- [56:29]
Dan Dreyfus
Yeah.
- [56:30]
David
Company number four, Geodnet.
- [56:31]
Moderator
And you're buying the Token, not the company.
- [56:33]
Dan Dreyfus
Do you think the. Maybe for you too, Gavin. Like the Gavin.
- [56:38]
David
You rank them well.
- [56:40]
Gavin
No.
- [56:40]
Moderator
Even before you rank, just tell us what you think of the format and then assess the companies. We'll do ranking at the end. We're going to do 432. We're going to do 4, 3, 2, 1 on stage. But give me your general ideas about the pitches, what you liked, what you did.
- [56:54]
Jake
I thought the pitches were great. I thought the format was amazing. I would for sure expand it next year. There are platforms that you guys could have a all all in basket or ETF that people could trade in. So like maybe that's something.
- [57:09]
Moderator
Will you do it next year?
- [57:10]
Jake
Will I pitch next year?
- [57:12]
Moderator
Yeah.
- [57:13]
Jake
Jake, I'll do anything against.
- [57:15]
David
He's locked. Actually, here's what I would ask Gavin to put you on the spot next year. I think we would all learn and benefit if you would do silicon and memory super cycle.
- [57:28]
Gavin
Sure.
- [57:28]
David
Would you be willing to do that for us?
- [57:30]
Jake
I'll do it. Sign me up.
- [57:32]
Gavin
Perfect.
- [57:33]
Jake
Sign me up.
- [57:33]
David
Thank you.
- [57:34]
Moderator
So keep going.
- [57:35]
Jake
Well, no, as far as the pitches, I do think it's important to disaggregate what was a really great, entertaining pitch versus what I think is a really good risk reward. I thought Oleg and Kyle did a great job with the pitches but I'm not a health care investor nor am I a crypto investor. I thoroughly enjoyed the presentations. I actually thought GNAT was very interesting. I'm happy to learn from Oleg that I might lift well into my 1/ hundreds. That was good news for me and everybody in the room. I enjoyed all the military terminology and analogies.
- [58:09]
David
Yeah, that was really great, huh?
- [58:10]
Jake
That was great.
- [58:11]
David
Really great.
- [58:12]
Jake
I do think from a pure risk reward perspective, I thought MGM was the best. Your downside is really capped because of the Barry Diller bid. And then you have Japan and Dubai as I think very valuable future sources of value. And I do think talent is also a very compelling risk reward. I just think everything in AI is going to need to grapple with increasing risk, regulatory risk, which we talked about last time that I was on the pod with you guys. And I don't know how to dimensionalize that. And I've been like the big negative
- [58:50]
David
externality for talent is nothing to do with talent.
- [58:52]
Jake
Nothing to do with talent.
- [58:53]
David
It's like something over the top from the US government, caps prices, something, something. Yeah, you have nationalizes the ladder, you
- [58:59]
Jake
have a change in administration, you have a change of Congress. The there's laws that are passed that I think make it hard for terrestrial compute which changes the utilities supply demand. But I actually think outside of that, Talon was super compelling.
- [59:12]
Moderator
So you got mgm, you got Talon. Now the other two,
- [59:17]
Jake
I thought they were both great pitches. Can I tie them for third?
- [59:20]
Moderator
Well no, don't even give the score. Just any feedback on those two ideas or those are just a little bit lottery ticket for you or.
- [59:28]
Jake
No, I thought Actis was very compelling. They're trying to do something different. As Oleg said, if you ever get a biotech company that can become a platform and they have a mechanism, whether it's of drugging, whether it's targeting, if you have something that is broadly applicable, that is when you can get these really really big hundred billion dollar plus outcomes in biotech which are rare. So I thought that part of Actis was super compelling. And you don't play crypto? I don't play crypto, but I thought the entire geonet discussion was fascinating and I'm anything that would get you off
- [60:07]
Moderator
the bench and make you jump into the crypto game or it's just you're. Why are you not playing the crypto game?
- [60:15]
Jake
I feel about crypto exactly the way I do about snowboarding. Okay. I'm not a very good athlete. I've spent a lifetime learning how to ski and I'm okay. And just the idea of getting on a snowboard, having thousands of hours of ski instruction, you don't want the pain for the game. Yes. And I have 25 years of lessons, learnings, pain scars from investing in equities and public securities and just crypto. It's a little bit like snowboarding for me, but like, you know.
- [60:50]
Moderator
Yeah, too hard.
- [60:50]
Jake
Everybody who wants to snowboard, that's great. Everybody wants to do crypto, that's great.
- [60:55]
Moderator
Just please don't go sideways down the mountain and ruin the powder. David, your assessment of MGM talent.
- [61:00]
Dan Dreyfus
Okay, mgm. I look at the kind of return upside, the downside and the timeline. MGM's like probably a 3X. I think it's also missing this point that I've heard a lot about on you can actually upgrade the monetization on these Vegas properties. We were talking to a friend of ours in Vegas. They're making a million bucks a day in incremental ebitda every day that they have a show at the Sphere at the Venetian Hotel, which is an unbelievable statistic which tells you that when you have the entertainment draw, the gambling revenue just flies.
- [61:34]
David
Flies.
- [61:35]
Dan Dreyfus
And so Barry Diller, I have heard separately has been spending a lot of time on trying to reinvent the entertainment at these properties and thinks he has an idea on how to do it which will cause the gambling revenue to fly. So I think even if you discount the upside on these new locations, there's probably a lot of work to be done. And I do like the floor on the bid. And then you've got call it 3x in 2 years, even if this bid goes nowhere and they keep the thing running and they're like, we're going to reject the bid and keep running independently. Talon is maybe 3x upside, 5x upside, but it's eight years out. And I think one of the other challenges with Talon that I would kind of use as a valuation metric is I think it's more interest rate sensitive than MGM is because the power purchase agreements really are where a lot of the revenue comes from. So you're going to get a discount rate that's a function of where interest rates are sitting. So I think if interest rates shoot up, which some might argue there's risk there. You actually get margin compression from that 15x outlook that he has for Talon. So that would be my kind of downside scenario on Talon in the time ahead. And actis, I do worry because I'm an investor in a company that's got a deep protein conjugate that shows really strong efficacy into getting solid tumors. I think that there are new modalities for therapeutics for solid tumors that are being discussed that may kind of put this at risk. I think the China risk is legit because I've seen it across the board in biotech, everything gets ripped off and people go to China, but they could have a hit and Lilly could bid on it in six months if they actually get a good readout. So there's certainly upside, but the downside is probably 50, 75% if they get a bad readout or China or some new modality comes out. So I think the ranking is probably mgm, Talonactus, and then for me, the Geodnet piece. I just think the space thing is likely the path. It's going to replace all RTK and all GPS in the next decade. It's an inevitable piggyback on systems that are already going up.
- [63:26]
Oleg Nodelman
All right, great.
- [63:27]
Moderator
So I think I've got everybody for me I put them into two buckets. I think akts and God, those are like lottery tickets. Could be crazy returns. But you know, there's a. There's a big probability of a zero there if they don't, you know, actually work. And then MGM and Talon obviously got the downside protection and those feel like people will always gamble and leave the lights on. So I kind of like both of them. Those I put 200k into each in real time. So that's just like my. I don't have a public vehicle.
- [64:01]
Dan Dreyfus
You actually buy.
- [64:02]
Moderator
I'm just day trading.
- [64:03]
David
I. I bought half of his action. I don't have a Robin Hood account. I have to call my office. So I was like just. I'll take you lose, buddy. I'll take half.
- [64:13]
Dan Dreyfus
Seven. I didn't see you with your thumbs.
- [64:15]
Moderator
I'm up 7% across the portfolio, so
- [64:17]
David
I don't think I can include you here. Steps to buy.
- [64:19]
Dan Dreyfus
I did. I weighted the three in the order I said on my.
- [64:22]
Kyle Samani
No.
- [64:23]
Moderator
Anyway, I'll just give mine really quick. I will go mgm, Talon, G O D A K T S. Gavin's only
- [64:32]
David
gonna make $50 trillion.
- [64:33]
Moderator
Let's bring our four pictures out.
- [64:35]
David
Have a thousand dollar bond.
- [64:37]
Moderator
Let's get the two men hugging statue. Wait, wait, no. Before you announce it, I need the extremely alpha male heterosexual trophy. The all in heterosexual alpha male trophy, please. And I need our four pitchers to come on stage. It makes it more exciting. It's like, makes it uncomfortable when like they show the five people for best actor.
- [65:03]
Gavin
Yeah.
- [65:05]
Jake
Yes.
- [65:05]
Kyle Samani
Da da da da da da da.
- [65:08]
Dan Dreyfus
They all got a tequila.
- [65:09]
Kyle Samani
You put those on the table.
- [65:11]
Moderator
But wait, where's my award for the award?
- [65:14]
Dan Dreyfus
You guys have the award.
- [65:14]
Moderator
Please bring me the extremely heterosexual alpha male award. You'll see why when I show you the award.
- [65:21]
Aaron Cowan
Pesky this side over Lumer.
- [65:23]
Dan Dreyfus
All right.
- [65:23]
Aaron Cowan
Bring me that award.
- [65:24]
Moderator
Let me show you how we 3D model.
- [65:26]
Dan Dreyfus
No one wants to see this award.
- [65:27]
Kyle Samani
Look at this.
- [65:28]
Moderator
This is two men uncomfortably hugging. And the way we did this, it's the best.
- [65:34]
Kyle Samani
Come here, Freeberg.
- [65:34]
Dan Dreyfus
I'm not doing it with you.
- [65:35]
Moderator
Come on, Freeberg.
- [65:36]
Dan Dreyfus
You do it tomorrow.
- [65:37]
Kyle Samani
Okay, fine.
- [65:38]
Gavin
He's extremely comfortable.
- [65:39]
David
That's David and I.
- [65:40]
Kyle Samani
It's David, you.
- [65:41]
Moderator
But let's show them how we modeled this. We just did a long.
- [65:44]
David
This is uncomfortable.
- [65:45]
Moderator
And we hold it for five extra seconds.
- [65:47]
David
At two minutes, you get the release of oxytocin.
- [65:50]
Moderator
There it is. Okay. So gentlemen, this is it.
- [65:53]
Dan Dreyfus
Do you guys have the results? Go ahead. Audience award.
- [65:55]
David
Okay, ready?
- [65:56]
Moderator
Audience Award.
- [65:57]
David
So based on 150 votes from the audience, do I just go four to one?
- [66:03]
Dan Dreyfus
Four to one.
- [66:04]
Moderator
Four to one is more exciting.
- [66:05]
David
Okay. Fourth place, with 5% of the vote was Kyle Samani.
- [66:09]
Moderator
Okay, well done.
- [66:11]
David
On the board, a very close second place.
- [66:17]
Moderator
No, third.
- [66:18]
David
Third place with 21 of the vote. Oh, like rock leg. Oh, boy.
- [66:23]
Moderator
We're closing in here, guys.
- [66:25]
David
Okay, very dramatic. And with 50, 55. 0%, who's number two? I'm gonna go. You know, you say number one now.
- [66:33]
Moderator
Okay, okay.
- [66:34]
David
No. Okay, well. Oh, sorry. Yeah, you're right. With 24% of the vote, in second place, Aaron Cowan from MGM. Number one, with 50% of the vote, Dan Dreyfus.
- [66:47]
Moderator
Coward.
- [66:47]
David
Wow. Unbelievable.
- [66:49]
Kyle Samani
Give it up.
- [66:50]
Moderator
Nicely done.
- [66:52]
David
Now, the bestie.
- [66:53]
Kyle Samani
Hold on.
- [66:53]
Moderator
Before we do the bestie. How do you feel right now having won this? Pass them the award.
- [66:58]
Dan Dreyfus
You guys look so uncomfortable.
- [67:00]
David
You guys are alien.
- [67:02]
Kyle Samani
Very.
- [67:03]
Moderator
But pass him his award for a second and let him hold it.
- [67:06]
Jake
Give an Academy Award.
- [67:08]
Aaron Cowan
Thank everybody.
- [67:09]
Jake
How you got to this place?
- [67:10]
Gavin
Say a face.
- [67:10]
Moderator
Emotion.
- [67:11]
Gavin
I got my award. I got my tequila.
- [67:14]
Dan Dreyfus
Yeah.
- [67:14]
Gavin
Thank you.
- [67:15]
Kyle Samani
There you go.
- [67:15]
Moderator
All right.
- [67:16]
Gavin
Well done.
- [67:17]
Moderator
Okay, now.
- [67:18]
David
Okay, that's the award.
- [67:19]
Moderator
4, 3, 2, 1.
- [67:21]
David
It's relatively similar here. Fourth place was Kyle Simani. Third place was Oleg. Second place, Dan Dreyfus. First place, Aaron Cohen. Big upset. Flip the audience vote.
- [67:34]
Dan Dreyfus
There you go.
- [67:35]
Moderator
All right, so MGM win.
- [67:36]
Aaron Cowan
All right, thanks, guys.
- [67:38]
Moderator
This was amazing.
- [67:39]
Dan Dreyfus
All right, thank you all for participating.
- [67:41]
David
Thank you very much.
- [67:42]
Kyle Samani
Thank you so much for coming.
- [67:43]
Moderator
And we'll see you.