All-In Podcast: Home Affordability Crisis, Palantir's Advantage, Big Short on AI, H-1B Abuse, Solar Storm Hits Earth

Date: November 14, 2025
Hosts: Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Friedberg (David Sacks absent this episode)

Episode Overview

In this lively episode, the All-In besties—minus David Sacks, who was "up late at the White House"—tackle a packed agenda reflecting current headlines and their signature mix of financial analysis, policy debate, and irreverent banter. Major topics include Michael Burry's surprising "big short" on AI and Palantir, the ongoing home affordability crisis and proposed 50-year mortgages, renewed scrutiny of the H-1B visa program, and a massive solar storm hitting Earth. The episode weaves technical breakdowns, policy critiques, market analysis, and plenty of in-jokes.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Michael Burry's "Big Short" on AI and Palantir

(00:00 - 16:39)

CNBC's Reporting Fumble:
The show opens with Michael Burry's short position against Palantir being misreported by CNBC—$900 million instead of $9 million.
- David Friedberg: "How do you confuse 9 million and 900 million? How do you do that?" [01:03]
- The panel digs into option math and asset reporting illiteracy in mainstream media.
Conspiracy Corner:
The group wonders if such reporting errors are ignorance or intentional market manipulation.
- Chamath: "Maybe the person knows exactly what they're doing... then you yourself short the market." [02:37]
Depreciation Schedules & AI Bubble:
Burry accuses Meta and Oracle of inflating earnings by stretching depreciation on infrastructure, specifically datacenter GPUs and servers.
- Jason: “Is the useful life of an Nvidia server 3 years or 6? It changes your earnings dramatically.” [03:36]
- Friedberg’s Accounting Corner:
  Explains how longer depreciation makes companies appear more profitable; presents actual industry trends (Google’s shift in depreciation schedules) and concludes Burry is likely wrong:
  
  “Everyone says the same thing: these 7- and 8-year-old GPUs are still being used at 100% utilization. So that actually justifies... the depreciation schedule being much longer." [08:14]
Short-Selling Critique:
Chamath and Friedberg assert that, for major public techs, fraud via accounting manipulations is nearly impossible today. Instead, shorts cause market chaos more for profit than to expose fraud.
- Chamath: “It’s just somebody's ability to cry fire in a theater... It’s extremely hard to impossible to commit financial fraud as a public company in 2025.” [11:45]

Notable Quotes

Chamath: "Shorting is just somebody's ability to cry fire in a theater." [11:45]
Friedberg: "Michael Burry's got this wrong." [08:38]

2. Palantir’s Valuation and Market Position

(12:00 - 17:12)

Run Rate vs. Valuation:
Palantir boasts a $3.5B run rate but a staggering $480B market cap (137x sales). Host skepticism arises.
Unique Market Position:
Chamath argues Palantir deserves its premium—unlike MongoDB, Snowflake, etc., it's both unique and well run, with no substitute.
- Chamath: “Palantir is both unique and well run and there’s no clear alternative... There is no place to churn to.” [15:16]
- He notes he has no current stake, validating independence: “It’s just so obvious what they do is unique and differentiated.” [16:39]

Notable Quote

Chamath: “If people took 1/1,000th of a second to actually use their brain, they'd come to that conclusion.” [16:35]

3. The Home Affordability Crisis & 50-Year Mortgages

(20:04 - 36:13)

Rising Barriers to Ownership:
US first-time homebuyer average age now 40 (was 28 in 1991). Trump admin proposes 50-year and portable mortgages.
- Many in MAGA call it “debt slavery." [20:04]
Ben Shapiro Clip:
"If you can't afford to live here, maybe you should not live here." [22:01]
Root Causes & Policy Debates:
- Chamath sees older generations' multiple homeownership, restrictive city/state policies, healthcare, and student debt as core issues.
  - “This is the keystone topic that has to be navigated for Republicans to win the midterms... housing, healthcare, student debt.” [22:36]
- Friedberg explains rent control’s investor disincentives and blames government intervention and overregulation for supply shortages and price inflation:
  
  “The government is now trying to limit what a landlord can charge in such a dramatic way that it’s ripped out incentive... Every time the government gets involved... prices are going to go up.” [25:03]
- Calacanis contrasts LA/SF/NYC regulation and prices with plentiful affordable homes in Texas:
  
  “If you live in Austin... your rent is 10%... of your income... You can buy a three-bedroom for $300k to $500K.” [29:28]
  - Rants against “liberal arts bullshit degrees” and urban elite entitlement.
Student Loan Reform (Bill Ackman’s Proposal): Chamath shares Ackman's idea that universities should share first-loss risk on student loans, incentivizing better value degrees.

“If the universities are forced to underwrite these degrees... they’ll be much more circumspect about what degrees they force onto people." [32:38]

Notable Quotes

Friedberg: "All of which create this perfect storm of disaster where we're just raising our hands and you know what? We say, please, government do more. And if the government does more, ... prices are going to go up even more." [28:30]
Chamath: “Three issues addressed: housing, healthcare, student loans... a transformational domestic policy agenda.” [24:47]
Calacanis: “This problem doesn’t exist in Texas... It doesn’t exist in a lot of markets.” [31:00]

4. H-1B Visa Abuse and Immigration Reform

(36:13 - 42:35)

Trump, H-1Bs, & Populism:
Trump's support for continued H-1B visas, the need for high-skilled talent, and criticism of program abuse (via mass applications from giant outsourcers).
Fixing the System:
Chamath and Jason on next steps:
- Limit applications per company to prevent manipulation.
- Make companies pay more to signal true need (e.g., $100k per visa).
- Auction slots for maximal revenue, reinvesting in domestic talent development.
- Criticism of heavy-handed deportations: “Let Bestin go out there and communicate... don’t arrest the South Koreans who are trying to build factories here. Disgrace.” [41:40]

Notable Quotes

Chamath: “We have to overhaul the H-1B program... Right now there's just a lot of abuse.” [37:38]
Calacanis: “Take the $100,000 and make it an auction… allocate it to vocational training and retraining.” [40:35]

5. Solar Storms & Earthly Effects

(42:35 - 53:40)

What Happened:
Three major coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hit, creating the strongest geomagnetic storm recorded (G5). Auroras visible as far as Texas; no major tech or grid failures reported.
- Friedberg: “It was a very big event... We had the highest level recorded geomagnetic storm... Fortunately, not a lot of reported damage, but beautiful auroras.” [45:08]
- Friedberg explains the physics of plasma, Earth’s magnetic shielding, and consequences of a Carrington-level event.
  - “These risks go away when we move to photon-based computing... But for now, as long as we’re relying on electrons and copper, we run the risk.” [49:38]
- Friedberg admits he considered delaying his Tokyo–San Francisco flight due to radiation spikes.

Notable Quotes

Friedberg: “If one of these coronal mass ejections are so large, they could wipe out satellite communication, turn off all computers, cause shorts in electrical grids... people always talk about these as Black Swan events.” [43:01]
A: "But to be clear, there were no other adverse effects from the CME so far." [46:05]

6. Tech Expats & "The Great Confiscation"

(51:14 - 53:40)

Migration from US Coasts:
Jason and Friedberg discuss the trend of tech founders and workers leaving America for lower-tax, innovation-friendlier places—Texas domestically, and Japan/Singapore/Malaysia internationally.
- Calacanis: “People are now looking for not one, but two escape hatches: a state ... and an international.” [51:29]
- Friedberg visits Malaysia’s "Forest City," describing it as the new frontier for tech communities and network societies.

Notable Memorable Moments & Quotes

| Time | Speaker | Quote | |----------|-------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:03 | Friedberg | “How do you confuse 9 million and 900 million? How do you do that?” | | 11:45 | Chamath | "Shorting is just someone's ability to cry fire in a theater." | | 15:16 | Chamath | "Palantir is both unique and well run and there’s no clear alternative." | | 25:03 | Friedberg | “Every time the government gets involved in a market... prices are going to go up.” | | 28:30 | Friedberg | “All of which create this perfect storm of disaster... please, government do more.” | | 32:38 | Chamath | “Universities should be on the hook as first-loss... Degrees don’t make sense.” | | 41:40 | Calacanis | “Don't arrest the South Koreans who are trying to build factories. Disgrace.” | | 45:08 | Friedberg | “We had the highest level recorded geomagnetic storm... beautiful auroras.” |

Structured Timestamps for Core Segments

| Topic | Start | End | Details | |-----------------------------------------|----------|----------|-------------------------------------------------------------| | Burry’s Short, CNBC Error, Accounting | 00:00 | 08:38 | Burry/Palantir/AI, short-selling incentives, accounting | | Palantir Valuation, Market Uniqueness | 12:00 | 17:12 | Company comparisons, churn risk, Chamath rants | | Home Affordability / Mortgages | 20:04 | 36:13 | Policy analysis, rent control, coastal vs. interior US | | H-1B Visa System | 36:13 | 42:35 | Abuse, reforms, Bestie proposals, admin communication | | Solar Storms/CMEs | 42:35 | 51:14 | Physics, impacts, personal anecdote, future-proofing | | Tech Expats, The Great Confiscation | 51:14 | 53:40 | Tech trends, Forest City visit, frontier communities |

Final Takeaways

This episode is classic All-In: sharp market and policy analysis, unvarnished opinions, and friendly trash talk. The hosts dive deep into technical and financial nuances, cut through media hype and economic orthodoxy, and offer a blend of lived experience, investment wisdom, and social commentary relevant to policymakers, founders, and the public. Key moments: Burry’s misunderstood short (and why shorts in 2025 rarely work), Palantir’s defensible valuation, the broken US housing market, possible fixes for the H-1B system, and planetary vulnerability to solar storms.

The banter, candor, and expertise make this essential listening for anyone serious about tech, macro, and political economy.

All-In Podcast: Home Affordability Crisis, Palantir's Advantage, Big Short on AI, H-1B Abuse, Solar Storm Hits Earth

Date: November 14, 2025
Hosts: Chamath Palihapitiya, Jason Calacanis, David Friedberg (David Sacks absent this episode)

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Michael Burry's "Big Short" on AI and Palantir

(00:00 - 16:39)

CNBC's Reporting Fumble:
The show opens with Michael Burry's short position against Palantir being misreported by CNBC—$900 million instead of $9 million.
- David Friedberg: "How do you confuse 9 million and 900 million? How do you do that?" [01:03]
- The panel digs into option math and asset reporting illiteracy in mainstream media.
Conspiracy Corner:
The group wonders if such reporting errors are ignorance or intentional market manipulation.
- Chamath: "Maybe the person knows exactly what they're doing... then you yourself short the market." [02:37]
Depreciation Schedules & AI Bubble:
Burry accuses Meta and Oracle of inflating earnings by stretching depreciation on infrastructure, specifically datacenter GPUs and servers.
- Jason: “Is the useful life of an Nvidia server 3 years or 6? It changes your earnings dramatically.” [03:36]
- Friedberg’s Accounting Corner:
  Explains how longer depreciation makes companies appear more profitable; presents actual industry trends (Google’s shift in depreciation schedules) and concludes Burry is likely wrong:
  
  “Everyone says the same thing: these 7- and 8-year-old GPUs are still being used at 100% utilization. So that actually justifies... the depreciation schedule being much longer." [08:14]
Short-Selling Critique:
Chamath and Friedberg assert that, for major public techs, fraud via accounting manipulations is nearly impossible today. Instead, shorts cause market chaos more for profit than to expose fraud.
- Chamath: “It’s just somebody's ability to cry fire in a theater... It’s extremely hard to impossible to commit financial fraud as a public company in 2025.” [11:45]

Notable Quotes

Chamath: "Shorting is just somebody's ability to cry fire in a theater." [11:45]
Friedberg: "Michael Burry's got this wrong." [08:38]

2. Palantir’s Valuation and Market Position

(12:00 - 17:12)

Run Rate vs. Valuation:
Palantir boasts a $3.5B run rate but a staggering $480B market cap (137x sales). Host skepticism arises.
Unique Market Position:
Chamath argues Palantir deserves its premium—unlike MongoDB, Snowflake, etc., it's both unique and well run, with no substitute.
- Chamath: “Palantir is both unique and well run and there’s no clear alternative... There is no place to churn to.” [15:16]
- He notes he has no current stake, validating independence: “It’s just so obvious what they do is unique and differentiated.” [16:39]

Notable Quote

Chamath: “If people took 1/1,000th of a second to actually use their brain, they'd come to that conclusion.” [16:35]

3. The Home Affordability Crisis & 50-Year Mortgages

(20:04 - 36:13)

Rising Barriers to Ownership:
US first-time homebuyer average age now 40 (was 28 in 1991). Trump admin proposes 50-year and portable mortgages.
- Many in MAGA call it “debt slavery." [20:04]
Ben Shapiro Clip:
"If you can't afford to live here, maybe you should not live here." [22:01]
Root Causes & Policy Debates:
- Chamath sees older generations' multiple homeownership, restrictive city/state policies, healthcare, and student debt as core issues.
  - “This is the keystone topic that has to be navigated for Republicans to win the midterms... housing, healthcare, student debt.” [22:36]
- Friedberg explains rent control’s investor disincentives and blames government intervention and overregulation for supply shortages and price inflation:
  
  “The government is now trying to limit what a landlord can charge in such a dramatic way that it’s ripped out incentive... Every time the government gets involved... prices are going to go up.” [25:03]
- Calacanis contrasts LA/SF/NYC regulation and prices with plentiful affordable homes in Texas:
  
  “If you live in Austin... your rent is 10%... of your income... You can buy a three-bedroom for $300k to $500K.” [29:28]
  - Rants against “liberal arts bullshit degrees” and urban elite entitlement.
Student Loan Reform (Bill Ackman’s Proposal): Chamath shares Ackman's idea that universities should share first-loss risk on student loans, incentivizing better value degrees.

“If the universities are forced to underwrite these degrees... they’ll be much more circumspect about what degrees they force onto people." [32:38]

Notable Quotes

Friedberg: "All of which create this perfect storm of disaster where we're just raising our hands and you know what? We say, please, government do more. And if the government does more, ... prices are going to go up even more." [28:30]
Chamath: “Three issues addressed: housing, healthcare, student loans... a transformational domestic policy agenda.” [24:47]
Calacanis: “This problem doesn’t exist in Texas... It doesn’t exist in a lot of markets.” [31:00]

4. H-1B Visa Abuse and Immigration Reform

(36:13 - 42:35)

Trump, H-1Bs, & Populism:
Trump's support for continued H-1B visas, the need for high-skilled talent, and criticism of program abuse (via mass applications from giant outsourcers).
Fixing the System:
Chamath and Jason on next steps:
- Limit applications per company to prevent manipulation.
- Make companies pay more to signal true need (e.g., $100k per visa).
- Auction slots for maximal revenue, reinvesting in domestic talent development.
- Criticism of heavy-handed deportations: “Let Bestin go out there and communicate... don’t arrest the South Koreans who are trying to build factories here. Disgrace.” [41:40]

Notable Quotes

Chamath: “We have to overhaul the H-1B program... Right now there's just a lot of abuse.” [37:38]
Calacanis: “Take the $100,000 and make it an auction… allocate it to vocational training and retraining.” [40:35]

5. Solar Storms & Earthly Effects

(42:35 - 53:40)

What Happened:
Three major coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hit, creating the strongest geomagnetic storm recorded (G5). Auroras visible as far as Texas; no major tech or grid failures reported.
- Friedberg: “It was a very big event... We had the highest level recorded geomagnetic storm... Fortunately, not a lot of reported damage, but beautiful auroras.” [45:08]
- Friedberg explains the physics of plasma, Earth’s magnetic shielding, and consequences of a Carrington-level event.
  - “These risks go away when we move to photon-based computing... But for now, as long as we’re relying on electrons and copper, we run the risk.” [49:38]
- Friedberg admits he considered delaying his Tokyo–San Francisco flight due to radiation spikes.

Notable Quotes

Friedberg: “If one of these coronal mass ejections are so large, they could wipe out satellite communication, turn off all computers, cause shorts in electrical grids... people always talk about these as Black Swan events.” [43:01]
A: "But to be clear, there were no other adverse effects from the CME so far." [46:05]

6. Tech Expats & "The Great Confiscation"

(51:14 - 53:40)

Migration from US Coasts:
Jason and Friedberg discuss the trend of tech founders and workers leaving America for lower-tax, innovation-friendlier places—Texas domestically, and Japan/Singapore/Malaysia internationally.
- Calacanis: “People are now looking for not one, but two escape hatches: a state ... and an international.” [51:29]
- Friedberg visits Malaysia’s "Forest City," describing it as the new frontier for tech communities and network societies.

Notable Memorable Moments & Quotes

Structured Timestamps for Core Segments

Final Takeaways

The banter, candor, and expertise make this essential listening for anyone serious about tech, macro, and political economy.

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Home Affordability Crisis, Palantir's Advantage, Big Short on AI, H-1B Abuse, Solar Storm Hits Earth

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Summary

All-In Podcast: Home Affordability Crisis, Palantir's Advantage, Big Short on AI, H-1B Abuse, Solar Storm Hits Earth

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Michael Burry's "Big Short" on AI and Palantir

Notable Quotes

2. Palantir’s Valuation and Market Position

Notable Quote

3. The Home Affordability Crisis & 50-Year Mortgages

Notable Quotes

4. H-1B Visa Abuse and Immigration Reform

Notable Quotes

5. Solar Storms & Earthly Effects

Notable Quotes

6. Tech Expats & "The Great Confiscation"

Notable Memorable Moments & Quotes

Structured Timestamps for Core Segments

Final Takeaways

Summary

All-In Podcast: Home Affordability Crisis, Palantir's Advantage, Big Short on AI, H-1B Abuse, Solar Storm Hits Earth

Episode Overview

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Michael Burry's "Big Short" on AI and Palantir

Notable Quotes

2. Palantir’s Valuation and Market Position

Notable Quote

3. The Home Affordability Crisis & 50-Year Mortgages

Notable Quotes

4. H-1B Visa Abuse and Immigration Reform

Notable Quotes

5. Solar Storms & Earthly Effects

Notable Quotes

6. Tech Expats & "The Great Confiscation"

Notable Memorable Moments & Quotes

Structured Timestamps for Core Segments

Final Takeaways