Aaron Brown, Wall Street Quant and Author: Wrong Number

Aaron Brown is a Wall Street quant, risk manager, and trader. He’s also a professor and the author of the recent book Wrong Number—on probability, reasoning, and the role of skepticism in markets and beyond. We begin with Aaron’s unconventional path into finance, from identifying betting opportunities in horse racing and playing professional poker to studying under pioneers including Fischer Black before spending decades on Wall Street. The conversation explores how concepts from poker—including bankroll management, Kelly sizing, and separating risk management from individual decisions—translate into portfolio construction and investing. We then turn to Aaron’s latest book, Wrong Number, which examines the misuse and misinterpretation of statistics across a range of public policy and scientific topics. He discusses common errors surrounding p-values, data quality, and the incentives that shape published research, emphasizing the importance of skepticism and careful interpretatio...