The Market Disregards Correlation

It's been a busy year for the Alpha Exchange podcast — 25 episodes so far and an exciting fall schedule ahead. Today I'm going solo, assessing a backdrop for market risk that has proven quite unique this year. In the discussion that follows, I want to share what's on my mind with respect to the prices we all stare at every day, and tie together three crosscurrents that look separate on the surface but are really one story. These themes are low correlation, spot up vol up dynamics, and the cheapness of market-based insurance. First, correlation. Realized and implied correlation among S&P stocks have fallen to levels never seen before — one-month realized printed 0.4% in late July — and that's pinning index vol to the floor even as the stocks inside get more volatile. On the second front, a meaningful cohort of stocks are experiencing massive returns, and, atypically, seeing their options become more expensive at the same time. This is amplified by leveraged ETFs and there are uniqu...