Former Trump Special Rep. to Iran Elliott Abrams

Summary

Amanpour Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: Former Trump Special Rep. to Iran Elliott Abrams

Date: March 13, 2026

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Main Theme and Purpose

This episode of Amanpour delves into America’s strategy and endgame in the escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, now entering its third week. Host Christiane Amanpour speaks with Elliott Abrams, former Trump Special Representative for Iran, and Iranian-American scholar Reza Aslan, exploring the prospects for regime change in Iran and the impact of ongoing military operations. The episode also highlights the humanitarian toll of the war, shifts in U.S. immigration enforcement, and the intersection of nationalism and religion in current events.

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Key Segments and Insights

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1. The Middle East Conflict: U.S. Strategy and Goals

Guest: Elliott Abrams (Former Trump adviser, Iran representative)
Timestamps: 03:00–20:00

U.S. Endgame in Iran

• Exit Strategy Options:
  • "Either there is some kind of uprising against the regime or... the President will call it off... we've hit all the targets we planned to hit, and now it's over." (Elliott Abrams, 03:09)
• Abrams' Expectation:
  • Most likely, Trump will simply halt the operation rather than wait for regime collapse.
  • "I do think that this regime is doomed because the people of Iran really hate it. But that doesn't tell us whether it's going to fall in a week or five years." (Abrams, 03:43)

Goals and Political Messaging

• Shifting Narrative:
  • Although initial rhetoric centered on destroying Iran’s nuclear program and prompting regime change, Senator Murphy revealed classified briefings state neither is now an explicit goal.
  • "What constitutes a successful end to this, then?" (Amanpour, 05:44)
• Likely Outcomes:
  • Abrams predicts Trump will claim victory by citing the destruction of nuclear and missile sites, and setbacks to Iran’s naval and regional ambitions.
  • "We've destroyed their navy... we've set them back years and years on their efforts to dominate the Arabian Gulf region." (Abrams, 05:44)
• Political Partisanship:
  • "We are in a period of very, very intense partisanship now in Washington... what you're going to hear from Democrats is completely negative... and what you're going to hear from Republicans is completely supportive." (Abrams, 07:02)

The Economic Dimension

• Strait of Hormuz Closure:
  • The closure cripples global oil supply, but Abrams downplays the idea of catastrophe, focusing on replacement stockpiles and alternate pipelines.
  • "If there is a month in which the Strait of Hormuz is closed, you lose about 20 million barrels a day. But you can make up 5 million of those barrels. The Saudis can... People have stocks..." (Abrams, 10:49)
• U.S. Domestic Impact:
  • The President's balancing act: hitting goals vs. economic risks, notably gas price inflation.

Historical Perspective and Future Risks

• Comparisons to the 1980s:

  • Refers to the U.S. Navy’s past actions in the Gulf but suggests the current administration is unlikely to directly escort ships.
  • "I don't think the president's going to do that. Now... that's too dangerous for the US Navy." (Abrams, 08:42)

• Long-term Outlook:

  • Abrams foresees possible repetition or prolongation of the cycle, noting previous "victories" over Iran's nuclear program have been short-lived.
  • "They just can't do it. For a generation we've removed this existential threat, said the Israeli prime minister. And now apparently they didn't, and they knew they didn't, so they're going again." (Amanpour, 13:17)

Regime Change and Democracy Promotion

• About Iran and Venezuela:
  • Abrams expresses hope for eventual regime change in Iran, but sees it as possibly years away.
  • On Venezuela, predicts a transition to democracy before end of Trump’s term, with opposition leader Maria Corina Machado likely to play a key role.
  • "I think she's the next president of Venezuela." (Abrams, 19:08)
• Cuba:
  • Predicts economic collapse may force political changes.

Memorable Quotes

• "The notion that the way to achieve regime change is by only validating the rhetoric of the government... that they are under threat by the Zionists and the colonialists is... a fantasy." (Aslan, 25:10)

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2. Regime Change in Iran: Hope vs. Reality

Guest: Reza Aslan (Iranian-American scholar and author)
Timestamps: 22:05–38:15

The “Bombs for Democracy” Fallacy

• Reza Aslan’s Skepticism:
  • Argues that bombing campaigns consolidate rather than weaken authoritarian regimes by uniting the populace against a foreign enemy.
  • "The wish fulfillment fantasy that somehow American bombs are going to result in homegrown democracy in the region has to be put to bed at a certain point." (Aslan, 23:12)
• Historical Pattern:
  • Asserts that each time the West isolates Iran, it inadvertently strengthens the regime.

Iran’s Nationalism and Opposition

• Iranian People’s Dilemma:

  • Despite loathing the government, Iranians rally around the regime under foreign threat, making revolt less likely.
  • "When death starts raining down from the skies... people rally to their government regardless of how much they hate their government." (Aslan, 25:10)

• Diaspora vs. Domestic Perspectives:

  • Diaspora’s hopes for external-driven regime change may reflect desperation more than reality.

Real Paths to Democracy

• Aslan on Engagement:
  • Advocates for engagement, economic integration, and reversing maximum-pressure policies.
  • Points to Obama-era P5+1 nuclear deal as a successful strategy that began opening Iran’s society before being scrapped.
  • "Our policy of containment, isolation and sanction as a hope for regime change has done the exact opposite... we have entrenched this regime further into power." (Aslan, 30:39)

Religion and “Cosmic War” Rhetoric

• Role of Religion:

  • Religion is leveraged in crisis to foster in-group unity and justify existential struggles, reinforcing us-vs-them dynamics.
  • "This kind of rhetoric... is nothing but destructive. I call it cosmic war rhetoric... there is no room for negotiation, there's no room for compromise when what is at stake is... the battle for the end times." (Aslan, 34:30)

• On Succession and Legitimacy:

  • Succession of Mujtaba Khamenei challenges the anti-monarchist foundations of the Islamic Republic—a potential source of regime instability.
  • "By simply replacing the crown with a turban, there is no more room... for the argument that the Islamic Republic represents some ideal state and not just the same authoritarian regime that Iranians collapsed in 1979." (Aslan, 38:15)

Memorable Quotes

• "The United States has been doing the tyrants work for him in Iran for the last half century... we have entrenched this regime further into power." (Aslan, 30:39)
• "If you want hope for the end of this regime, that's the best hope I can give you." (Aslan, 38:15)

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3. Immigration Crackdown and the Human Cost

Guest: Caitlin Dickerson (Pulitzer-winning journalist)
Timestamps: 40:12–54:22

Heightened Enforcement Under Trump

• Transition in Tactics:

  • Increased focus on long-settled immigrant families.
  • Expansion of detention and deportation efforts; abandonment of Biden-era normalization measures.

• Chilling Example:

  • The case of Liam Ramos, a five-year-old detained by ICE, his rapid decline described as emblematic of systemic harm to children in detention.
  • "He wasn't eating, he had a fever, he was vomiting. Kids tend to get very sick there... It was really no surprise to me how quickly he deteriorated based on where he was being held." (Dickerson, 46:32)

Facility Conditions

• Dilley Immigration Processing Center:
  • Outward attempts to make the center child-friendly don’t compensate for the inherent trauma and poor conditions.
  • Reports of rancid water, poor food, constant lighting.

Policy Justifications and Political Reality

• Administration Stance:
  • Emphasizes pressure on ICE staff to achieve high daily arrest quotas (3,000/day).
• Leadership Changes:
  • The firing of Kristi Noem as DHS Secretary and appointment of Sen. Markwayne Mullin as successor indicate continuity, not moderation, in enforcement.

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Notable Quotes and Moments

• Elliott Abrams (on U.S. flexibility):
  • "I think her purpose there was to give the President complete flexibility. If he were to decide to call it off this weekend, she could say, see, I told you so." (03:37)
• Reza Aslan (on bombs and democracy):
  • "The wish fulfillment fantasy that somehow American bombs are going to result in homegrown democracy... has to be put to bed..." (23:12)
• Caitlin Dickerson (on deterrence policy):
  • "They want to send a very scary message to discourage people from immigrating to the United States or from staying here once they've arrived." (01:03)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 03:00 — Start of Elliott Abrams interview: U.S. endgame in Iran
• 05:44 — Defining “success” and goals in the war
• 08:42 — Military and economic risks (Strait of Hormuz)
• 12:10 — Abrams’ hypothetical advice to the President
• 19:08 — Venezuela and Cuba: democracy transitions
• 22:05 — Reza Aslan: Why bombing won’t bring democracy
• 24:30–30:39 — Roots of regime resilience and the failed isolation strategy
• 33:31 — Engaging with Iran and diaspora debates
• 34:30 — Religion’s role in the present conflict (“cosmic war rhetoric”)
• 40:12 — Caitlin Dickerson: Family separations and impact of immigration crackdown
• 46:32 — The story of Liam Ramos
• 52:43 — Administrative changes in DHS

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Tone and Style

The episode maintains Amanpour’s signature mix of rigorous, probing journalism with high-level expertise and deeply human perspectives. Amanpour’s style is direct, occasionally incredulous at policy inconsistencies, and empathetic toward civilian suffering, while guests are frank and often critical of political rhetoric and simplistic solutions.

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For Listeners Who Haven’t Tuned In

This episode provides a comprehensive, nuanced analysis of unfolding events in the Middle East and their ripple effects on global politics and society. It challenges assumptions about the efficacy of regime change through force, explores deep nationalist and religious drivers, and spotlights the ongoing trauma imposed by tough U.S. immigration policies. The voices of Elliott Abrams and Reza Aslan offer sharply contrasting, thought-provoking views on American power and its limits, while Caitlin Dickerson’s reporting brings into focus the tangible human cost of policy decisions.

Transcript

[Christiane Amanpour]

Hello, everyone, and welcome to Amanpour. Here's what's coming up.

[Elliot Abrams]

Either there is some kind of uprising against the regime or in probably a week or two, the President will call it off.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Spiraling conflict in the Middle east as Israel, the United States and Iran continue to trade blows and Lebanon is caught in the crossfire. Former Trump adviser and regional expert Elliot Abrams joins me to discuss America's endgame.

[Reza Aslan]

Then I think the wish fulfillment fantasy that somehow American bombs are going to result in homegrown democracy in the region has to be put to bed.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Could regime change be coming to Iran? I ask Iranian American religious scholar Reza Aslan about his predictions for the future of the Islamic republic.

[Caitlin Dickerson]

Plus, they want to send a very scary message to discourage people from immigrating to the United States or from staying here once they've arrived.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Trump's immigration crackdown. Award winning journalist Caitlin Dickerson speaks to Michelle Martin about the devastating choices facing families all over America. Welcome to the program, everyone. I'm Christiane Amanpour in London. The war in the Middle east is about to enter its third week with the US And Israel continuing major airstrikes across Iran. Tehran retaliating with asymmetric warfare firing thousands of one way drones towards its neighbors. And a major situation developing in the Strait of Hormuz. With trade through that energy checkpoint grinding almost completely to a halt and global oil prices surging, the CEO of Saudi Aramco, the world's top oil exporter, warns the longer the disruption goes on, the more catastrophic the consequences. Israel's defense minister says their military operation will, quote, proceed without any limit. But Donald Trump's messaging has been unclear, saying that he could end it now or go even further. Meantime, civilians on the ground pay the highest price. In Iran, more than 1,300 have been killed since the war started, according to Iran's UN Ambassador. Now, after a week long investigation, sources report that the attack on the school in Minab that killed at least 168 schoolgirls and 14 teachers, those are numbers from Iran, was done by the US Military based on outdated intelligence. US Authorities have declined to comment. So what is America's end game here? I asked Elliot Abrams, who was President Trump's point person on Iran during his first term. He joined me from Washington. Elliot Abrams, welcome back to the program.

[Elliot Abrams]

Thank you.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So it's two weeks into this war. Do you have any clear idea of the exit strategy and the precise goals?

[Elliot Abrams]

Well, I think the goals have been set out. We'll come back to that. But the exit strategy, I think is really one of two things. Either there is some kind of uprising against the regime, or in probably a week or two, the President will call it off. He will say, we have hit all the targets we planned to hit, and now it's over.

[Christiane Amanpour]

And knowing him as you do, because you were in 1.0, you had the Iran file, you had the Venezuela file. What do you think is more likely?

[Elliot Abrams]

Oh, I think it's more likely that he will just call it off. I do think that this regime is doomed because the people of Iran really hate it. But that doesn't tell us whether it's going to fall in a week or five years.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Let me just play you to your point. Exactly. Let me play you what Carolyn Levitt, the White House spokesperson, said from the podium when asked over and again, how does this end?

[Caitlin Dickerson]

The US Military's initial timeline was about four to six weeks to achieve the full objectives of Operation Epic Fury. But ultimately the operations will end when the command commander in chief determines the military objectives have been met, fully realized, and that Iran is in a position of complete and unconditional surrender, whether they say it or not.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So, okay, whether they say it or not. So what exactly do you read into that? What does that mean?

[Elliot Abrams]

I think her purpose there was to give the President complete flexibility. If he were to decide to call it off this weekend, she could say, see, I told you so. And if it does go on a couple more weeks, again, she will say the initial plan was four weeks or something like that. I don't think there's much substance to that other than saying the President can do what he wants. Okay.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Well, we also know that the senators were again briefed this week, classified briefings. They were once briefed a few days after the war started. And now we're being told by Senator Murphy that the goal, when specifically asked what the American goals were here, did not involve destroying Iran's nuclear weapons program. This is, for me, surprising, since President Trump said over and over again that is a key goal. And then he also said, Senator Murphy, that the goal did not involve regime change. So what constitutes a successful end to this, then?

[Elliot Abrams]

I think what the President will say at the end of this, again, assuming that there is not regime change, what he will say is they started trying to rebuild their nuclear program. We've hit those sites again and again and obliterated whatever they had been trying to rebuild. Secondly, we have hit very hard at their missile program, at missiles, at missile warehouses, at missile production sites, at launchers, and that's completely obliterated people say we've destroyed their navy and we've set them back years and years on their efforts to dominate the Arabian Gulf region. I think that is what he will say.

[Christiane Amanpour]

What do you think of all of that? Because it's very, very less than the maximalist goals they set out at the beginning, including several times calling on the people of Iran to rise up. And if they're now saying the go is not to destroy, you know, the whole nuclear program, to me it sounds really weird. But what do you make of what they are saying and how they're rationalizing? Because clearly they've been surprised, A, by Iran's retaliation and B, the decapitation of the first Khamenei did not cause regime collapse.

[Elliot Abrams]

I don't think they've been surprised at the failure of the regime to completely collapse. I do think they've been surprised at the ferocity of the attack on neighbors, on the Gulf Arabs, on Azerbaijan, on Turkey. I mean, I personally have been surprised at that ferocity, too. I do have to say, Christian, that I would not take at face value what you hear from Senator Murphy. We are in a period of very, very intense partisanship now in Washington. And what you're going to hear from Democrats is completely negative, except for Senator Fetterman. And what you're going to hear from Republicans is completely supportive.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Well, yes, and we've heard some Republicans actually not be so supportive. But we also know that President Trump himself has stepped away from regime change and has basically said, you, it's up to you, the Iranian people, to do whatever I was like over to you guys. You know, we, we've helped. But in fact, it does seem to be a very strange kind of war. And, you know, based on your, on your, you know, experience in this regard, that the idea of mining the Straits of Hormuz, mining the Persian Gulf harks back to the 80s. And it took a huge amount of American military prowess and effort to then, you know, to remind us of that, of when they say we're going to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which they haven't yet remind us about how it happened in the 80s.

[Elliot Abrams]

Well, in the earlier period, the United States did the reflagging of Kuwaiti and other tankers and Iran did not attack those American ships. I don't think the president's going to do that. Now. I may be wrong, but it seems to me that that's too dangerous for the US Navy. And he is actually better off, I would argue, trying some other things like insurance for ships going through that's just money that doesn't then involve American warships and the possible loss of life to American soldiers and sailors. So I don't think we're going to do that. I do think the President is trying to balance here. How many of his goals can he achieve as opposed to the upset in the world economy? And particularly for him, of course, the U.S. economy. I mean, gasoline prices by this weekend will be much, much higher and they'll keep going up. We don't have a supply problem in the U.S. as you know, but we do have a price problem. And it's easy to say, well, prices are going to go down as soon as this ends and they will. But I think the President is worried about that and worried about the impact on inflation.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So that also seems strange to me because in his public statements he has said even before the war, yes, there might be a blip, I think he said, on the prices, but I'm not so worried about that. So again, they are kind of surprised by the amount of, of hike and the amount of pressure Iran has put on to stop and to, you know, to stop the oil exports and things like that. The head of Saudi Aramco said this week that the ongoing closure of the Straits of Hormuz, I think he said, would be a catastrophe for the whole global economy. Again, why wasn't this factored in? And I have to say, I mean, Iran did telegraph exactly how it was going to respond.

[Elliot Abrams]

Well, I find it very hard to understand why it's not factored in. I do think it's not, frankly, if there is a month, let's say, in which the Strait of Hormuz is closed, you lose about 20 million barrels a day. But you can make up 5 million of those barrels. The Saudis can by using the pipeline they have to Yonbu on the red sea. So 15 million barrels a day. People have stocks. Many countries we've heard this week from the iea, International Energy Agency, people can start using those stocks. So it is a one time increase in the cost of oil to consumers. That's not a catastrophe. I do think what is much more dangerous is not the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which can be opened in a day. It's the attacks on oil production facilities. And we've seen some of that. We've seen it particularly in Bahrain. In other cases there have been Iranian efforts and the drones or missiles have simply been knocked down. That's more dangerous because, for example, if you lose a refinery, you can't replace that in a week.

[Christiane Amanpour]

What would you be thinking if you were still in the advisory position and what would you advise the president and his, essentially his war cabinet right now?

[Elliot Abrams]

I would say I would worry less, frankly, about gas prices. If gas prices peak in March, don't worry about November. People will have other things to worry about when they're. I would say what the President ought to be thinking about is the remaining almost three years. Do you want to have to do that again? What happens if Iran starts, for example, rebuilding? You want to be in a position to say, I have taken these facilities out, I've taken them all out, the nuclear and the missile, and you won't have to do this again while you're president? I think you want to be able to say, I have achieved what I wanted to achieve and my successors may have to deal with this if the Iranian people do not overthrow the regime by the time I leave office, but you don't want to have to do this again.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So it's hard to actually evaluate because, let's face it, both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, after the June 12day war, stood in front of their publics and looked them in the eye and said, we have obliterated the nuclear, you know, program. Everything's entombed or we've crashed it down, or they cannot do it. They just can't do it. For a generation we've removed this existential threat, said the Israeli prime minister. And now apparently they didn't, and they knew they didn't, so they're going again. So you say. I mean, I think I'm hearing you say this could go on for years. The most important thing in the nuclear thing, right, is is the highly enriched uranium. Is that not right, that 400 kg that is there somewhere that they need to get out?

[Elliot Abrams]

That's very important. But there are other questions also, which is their ability to enrich uranium going forward from now. Yes, they presumably still have that amount of enriched uranium, but they can always create more unless they're prevented from doing so. I think also people realize now, their neighbors, above all, realize now the dangers that were coming from their missile program, which obviously have done a lot more damage. The nuclear program has not yet done any damage to neighbors, but the missile and drone programs have. So those need to be hit and really hit very hard.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Can I ask you again about the people of Iran? Because as you know, not only in the diaspora, which I'm sure you have contact with, but inside Iran, there have been celebrations, there have been real hope that these bombing attacks, this war against the regime really and the system would in fact liberate them. This does not appear to be happening. And again, we were told, as I said, that regime change is not on the offing. And also we when asked directly to Senator Rather, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, what will you do to fulfill your promise of helping the Iranian people if they come out after all this? They basically had no answer to that. And you've probably also seen that in Iran, state media is ramping up the pressure against the protesters, saying don't even try to come out. You'll be considered an enemy if you come out in response to our enemies and shoot to kill. Orders have already been. I mean, this is really violent stuff that they're saying. I guess I'm asking you because Venezuela also slightly different situation, but there is not the attention to democracy and freedom of the people in Venezuela. So are you comfortable with that?

[Elliot Abrams]

Well, I think you have to look at this. Not from March 2026 only. The President again has just short of three years. I really do believe that, though they are not moving at all fast enough toward transition to democracy. There will be one and there will be an election next year in Venezuela. And by the time Trump leaves office, they will have restored democracy in Venezuela. In the case of Iran, you know, if two years from today there is an uprising and the regime falls, I think we will all say, well, this would not have happened if it weren't for the events of 2026 and the damage that was done to the regime and its instruments of repression. So, yeah, if you look at it from this week, it may seem as if, well, that's not working. But that's not the critical thing. The critical thing is what happens now over the next months and years in Iran. And when does the regime fall?

[Christiane Amanpour]

All right, well, you're sure it will. Others are not so sure. But look, there's a hope for many people that it will. But now we have a national security. Of course, the national security strategy had said the priority should be the Western hemisphere. Cuba is being blocked, as you know, from oil supplies from its traditional allies, Mexico, the, you know, Venezuela, etc. Do you think that this administration has its eyes next set on Cuba and will Cuba collapse? What do you think is the status there?

[Elliot Abrams]

Well, I absolutely think they have their eyes on Cuba. And the problem in Cuba is there's nobody to talk to. That is the President of Cuba, Mr. Diaz Canel has no power in their system. It's not pointless talking to him. So who do you talk to? Raul Castro, well into his 90s may or may not really be in charge. I know the administration is making efforts to figure that out. Look, without the oil from Venezuela and Mexico, their economy really is going to collapse and they're going to have to start talking to the United States. I'm sure they're willing to do economic change at this point. Political change is going to be harder and it's harder than Venezuela because Venezuela was a democracy more recently. Venezuela has had a real parliament. Venezuela has real opposition political leaders like Maria Corino Machado. The transition to democracy will be easier there. But yes, I think the administration wants this to happen while Trump is president and even this year. And I think the chances of it are pretty good.

[Michelle Martin]

Wow.

[Christiane Amanpour]

You just mentioned Maria Karina Machado, who Trump has sidelined, and yet you say you do believe you've mentioned her. Obviously you rate her and you've said you think there will be a transition to democracy. Do you think she will be an important leader in the democratic movement?

[Elliot Abrams]

I do think so. And President Trump actually met with her earlier this week for the second time in the Oval Office. So he does still regard her as a player. The only polls I've seen have her beating Delsey Rodriguez in a free election if one were held now 67 25. So I think yes, she is the likely opposition candidate. Whether the election is at the end of this year or I think more likely next year, she'll be playing a key role. I think she's the next president of Venezuela.

[Christiane Amanpour]

We shall see. All right, Elliot Abrams, when we see how this all pans out, I'm going to take this interview and question you again on it. Regime change in Iran, Maria Corinna Machado in Venezuela and collapse of the regime in Cuba, I think you said this year. All right.

[Elliot Abrams]

I did.

[Christiane Amanpour]

All right. Thank you for joining us.

[Elliot Abrams]

My pleasure. As always.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Coming up, regime change, regime collapse, or none of the above. I speak to the acclaimed Iranian American scholar Reza Aslan about his guests essay in the New York Times and the mistake Iranians make about America and vice versa. That's just ahead.

[Caitlin Dickerson]

This week on the Assignment. With me, Audie Cornish. My guest is Megan Cruz, a tick tock movie critic who's part of the up and coming world Paris social critique. She's the perfect person to talk about this year's Oscars because it's been great for films and weird for discourse. It's a lot of back and forth. Siskel and Ebert definitely like laid a groundwork of what modern film discourse and criticism is now because of the Internet it is incredibly interactive and the audience definitely feels like they are a part of it and they do in a lot of ways drive the conversation. Listen to the assignment with me, Audie Cornish. Streaming now on your favorite podcast app. I'm CNN tech reporter Claire Duffy. This week on the podcast Terms of Service, Is the AI market a bubble waiting to burst? And if so, how should we all as individuals be thinking about our personal investments and retirement accounts? To help me answer those questions, I have Ross Mayfield here with me. He's an investment strategist for Bayard Private Wealth Management where he helps clients make informed investment decisions.

[Reza Aslan]

The dot com bubble of the late 90s is the go to example, particularly for today because it's a brand new technology.

[Elliot Abrams]

This also resembles pretty closely the mid-1800s

[Reza Aslan]

railroad bubble, which this is my favorite bubble.

[Elliot Abrams]

Yeah, it's great, right, because railroads are such an old school technology, but in the 1800s they were the AI of their time. It was this game changing technology.

[Caitlin Dickerson]

Listen to CNN's terms of service wherever you get your podcast. Now.

[Christiane Amanpour]

According to sources familiar with the latest US Intelligence assessments, they see no sign after two weeks of this war of the Iran regime collapsing despite President Trump urging Iranians to take over their government. Many people there now who might have wanted change and who still do live under increasing fear during the intensity that's growing of these bombardments. My next guest says that the American Israeli bombing campaign won't lead to liberal democracy anyway, but to rather much worse. Reza Aslan is an Iranian American religious scholar whose family left Iran in 1979 and he's author of An American Martyr in Persia. He joined me from Los Angeles to discuss what's ahead. Reza Aslan, welcome to the program.

[Reza Aslan]

Thank you for having me.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So you know what former envoy Elliott Abrams said. You know, he's a well known conserv, always been hard line on these kinds of issues. But he seemed as you saw, to really believe that this was gonna work out as Trump wanted it. What do you think of that?

[Reza Aslan]

Well, I guess we should ask ourselves how much longer we are going to listen to Elliot Abrams when he has been wrong about the Middle east for decades. I mean this is the same exact thing of course that he said about Iraq. I think the wish fulfillment fantasy that somehow American bombs are going to result in homegrown democracy in the region has to be put to bed at a certain point. Christiane, I think what we're seeing in Iran, which is a consolidation of hardline power, which is further repression, further silencing of any voices that are Arguing for moderation or reform is exactly what everyone expected to see once bombs from Israel and the United States start raining down indiscriminately on Tehran. And I can't imagine why we are still peddling this fantasy that this is the road to democracy promotion.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So I'm going to ask you about what is the road to democracy promotion. But first I want to ask you, you know, the latest findings of US Intelligence, according to sources, is that actually after two weeks of this, and it's very heavy bombing all over the country is not causing regime collapse.

[Reza Aslan]

This is an argument that has been made in the walls of think tanks in D.C. and New York for decades and decades. We've been hearing it for a very, very long time. But of course, any sober minded analyst who looks at Iran especially, which has a profoundly stable and strong sense of nationalism and national cohesion, has been saying over and over again that the way to consolidate hardline power, the way to put an end to the hope of any kind of reform, is precisely by ramping up the national security threat that Iranians use, that the Iranian regime, I should say, uses to maintain its grip on the country and the people in the first place. Look, it doesn't take a foreign policy genius to understand that when death starts raining down from the skies, what tends to happen is, is that people rally to their government regardless of how much they hate their government. And listen, the neocons are correct. The Iranian people loathe their government. They want nothing more than to drag these mullahs out onto the streets and probably beat them to death. But the notion that the way to achieve regime change is by only validating the rhetoric of the government, that they are under threat by the Zionists and the colonialists is, as I've said a bunch of times now, a fantasy.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So let me just press a little bit on the idea of what the people want. Obviously, you saw, we all saw in the first hours, especially after the death of Khamenei, there was quite a lot of, you know, celebrations inside Tehran. At least we saw the videos, we heard it. I asked the Iranian analyst Mustafa Danishgar, who's a professor in the United States and who has a slightly different view because he, like many in the diaspora, feel that no matter how hard the bombing is, no matter how much the difficulty is, really people want it in order for once and for all, this regime to fall. Let me just play you what he told me this week.

[Reza Aslan]

They are in anger from their country, from the massacre that happened in January 8th and 9th. So they will at some moment, they can take over the government. This can lead to the collapse in the political system, political structure, and lead to people to feel that they are secured and they can take the protest

[Elliot Abrams]

to the street one more time.

[Reza Aslan]

One more time. So I think there is a big chance for that.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So obviously, that's a hope. Obviously. And we see Trump backing off that idea, but not Israel. We think that Netanyahu, in statements from the IDF recently, we're going to do something big. We're going to give you the opportunity to take your destiny into your own hands. Is there some way you think that this could still happen?

[Reza Aslan]

Well, two things. First of all, there is no world in which Netanyahu or the Israeli government believed that a bombing campaign in Iran was going to lead to regime change. There is no interest necessarily in regime change coming out of the Israeli government. The interest which has been there for decades, Netanyahu especially, has been trying for decades to manipulate American presidents into bombing Iran along with them. And not to change the government, but to essentially destroy the national security threat that Israel feels. And whether they achieve that by just simply bombing the country into oblivion and whether it's still still the same clerical regime, I don't think that that's important for Israel. This idea that the bombing campaign will lead to sort of a mass protest that will bring down the government is an idea that is peddled in the Iranian diaspora, but not in Iran itself. And listen, I am part of the Iranian diaspora. I understand the Iranian. The anger and frustration and desperation that it takes to truly believe that the death and destruction of our family that we left behind in Iran is worth it because it might bring down this government. I mean, again, please understand how desperate one must be to believe that idea. And I get it. I sympathize with it. But it's an emotional argument, not a rational argument. And in fact, it's an argument that we've already seen be proven incorrect by what's happening in Iran. With the consolidation of the authoritarian regime being even further entrenched in the region. I want this regime to be gone like everyone else does. But again, the notion that what that will require is an aerial campaign by the regime's greatest enemy, by the enemy that it uses as its entire reason for existence is, I think, belied by the facts that we are seeing on the ground themselves.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So then let me ask you, because you said, if this is not the way to democracy in Iran, there has to be another way, what is the other way? Because clearly there is opposition. You just mentioned the opposition in the diaspora, the, the best known is Reza Pahlavi, who's talked and told me about wanting to be a sort of a transitional figure, not a monarch, leave it up to the people, have a referendum, et cetera, and potentially even working with someone from within. We've heard that sort of floated, you know, around at least for the beginning. What hope do the Iranians have? Let's say this war ends or the bombing campaign ends and the regime is still in place. This is the regime that killed so many people and really crossed. If there was a line that it was going to cross. It really crossed the line of barbaric behavior to its own people in January. How do people who want change actually try to affect change?

[Reza Aslan]

This is a question that we've been asking for a very long time. And there are models of this throughout the 20th century. Look, an authoritarian regime, a tyrant stays in power by isolating his people from the rest of the world. The United States has been doing the tyrants work for him in Iran for the last half century. Our policy of containment, isolation and sanction as a hope for regime change has done the exact opposite. That's just a fact. We have entrenched this regime further into power. That's not illogical. If the people themselves have no access to the rest of the world, no access to the free market economy, then they are handicapped from being able to rise up and take down a government that they rely upon for their very sustenance, for their very bread. No wonder that these protests that we see, these legitimate protests that we see almost every year, which have been brutally repressed by this dictatorial police state in Iran, have never actually managed to bring down this regime. Because the only way to do so is to get the entire of the people, and particularly the pious poor and the sort of mid level, low level clerics and seminary students to come out onto the streets as well. Look, we actually had a plan in place. The P5 1 negotiations that President Obama put together, which miraculously brought in Russia and China, two countries that have radically opposing interests in Iran, than the United States was by every measure working. First of all, it absolutely removed Iran's ability to develop nuclear weapons to enrich uranium to the point in which it could develop nuclear weapons. That relationship that we put together under President Obama had an opportunity to possibly give particularly the struggling middle class in Iran the chance to rise up and make their voices heard. We started seeing a wave of reform in Iran immediately following that negotiation. But of course the negotiation was torn up. And what we have seen since that moment, which has resulted in the destruction and death that we are seeing now, was a direct result of reversing course on a policy that had the possibility, not guarantee, but the possibility of acting, actually creating the change that we are desperate to see in Iran.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Indeed. And I'm just gonna say it because, you know, so many in the diaspora think that any engagement, any at all, is just colluding with the regime and there should be no engagement whatsoever. But I understand that it is much more complicated than that.

[Reza Aslan]

I hear that all the time.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Yep, yep. As you just line up. But let's, let's talk about religion now. Your latest article for the LA Times talks about Mujtab Al Khamenei and this and that where he is, we don't know. The state TV has read a proclamation from him. But there's. It's kind of apocalyptic as it's been described by actually a former senior Saudi. To me that you've got the fundamentalist Shiism in Iran against the, you know, Orthodox, you know, of Israel, that the religion. And also in the United States, as he described to me, Christian Zionism. And you just saw maybe Secretary Pete Hegseth recently quoted Psalm 144, Blessed be the Lord my rock, who trains my hands for war and my fingers for battle. He's literally reading that at the end of a presser briefing. This is going on from the American side right now. Tell me from the Iranian side how deep religion is playing in this right now, not just nationalism.

[Reza Aslan]

Well, I don't think religion is deciding the course of the war or Iran's foreign policy, but like in the United States or in Israel. Israel. Religion is a powerful motivator. It is the currency that holds them. It's the language, I should say, that holds the most currency for the masses. It is the way in which, especially in moments of death and destruction and desperation, in moments of threat, when your very family's lives are at stake, you are going to revert not just to religion, but to the most extreme versions of religion as a way of giving yourself hope, as a way of giving yourself meaning, as a way of seeing a light at the end of the tunnel. This kind of rhetoric, which has been going back and forth between these countries, these three countries, for many, many decades now, is nothing but destructive. I call it cosmic war rhetoric. The problem with this kind of cosmic war ideology is that there is no room for negotiation, there's no room for compromise when what is at stake is the battle between good and evil, the battle for the end times. The more that rhetoric comes out, not just of our government, but out of our military in the United States, the more it only confirms what the Iranian government is saying to its own people, which is that this is not about missiles or nuclear programs. This is about a battle between Judaism and Christianity versus Islam. That this is an existential fight that can only be fought to the death. And indeed, that is precisely the kind of rhetoric that is coming out of Mujtaba Khamenei. And if I could just say one quick thing about Mojtaba, if we are really wanting to be hopeful about the idea of the end or collapse of this regime, it's not going to come from bombs raining down from the sky, but it could possibly come from this succession. Christiane, you know as well as I do that the entire argument of the 1979 revolution was to put an end to hereditary rule. The Islamic Republic itself has established its very identity as being the moral foundation of the state. Right? That, that, that the leader of the state has to be the most qualified senior cleric, the one who sort of reflects the religious values and morality of the state. The notion that Iran has now just reverted back to hereditary rule, that a mid level cleric who has absolutely no qualifications for this made up office of supreme leader, that, that he can have that office simply because he is the son of the previous one, again puts a lie to the very foundation of the Islamic Republic, which had already been cracking and delegitimized in the eyes of most Iranians anyway. But by simply replacing the crown with a turban, there is no more room, particularly for the pious poor that I was referring to and for those seminary students whose support we need if this regime is truly going to fall. There's no more room for the argument that the Islamic Republic represents some ideal state and not just the same authoritarian regime that Iranians collapsed in 1979. If you want hope for the end of this regime, that's the best hope that I can give you.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Well, Reza Aslan, thank you very much indeed for that.

[Reza Aslan]

Anytime, Christiane. Thank you.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Still to come, Trump's immigration crackdown. How fear and distrust are being sowed across America. That's after the break. Tab.

[Elliot Abrams]

I've got News for your ears, the podcast. I am your host, Michael Ian Black. If you're some cargo ship captain from Kuala Lumpur and you want America to prevail in this war, it is your patriotic duty to send your cargo ship through the Strait of Hormuz and get sunk, right, and get murdered.

[Christiane Amanpour]

And here's the thing, just Doing your job.

[Elliot Abrams]

This is a man of his word.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Donald Trump will pay for the insurance on that.

[Elliot Abrams]

Right, Just like he paid for all the burgers for everybody last year. Yeah, that's right. Burgers for all. Have I got news for your ears. Releases new episodes every Wednesday. Don't miss an episode. Follow us wherever you get your podcasts.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Now. While the world is focused on the widening regional war in the Middle east, in America, Donald Trump's immigration crackdown goes on. From expanding ISIS ability to detain the legal refugees to sowing fear in schools and communities, Pulitzer Prize winning journalist Caitlin Dickerson has been speaking to people across the country who no longer feel safe or welcome. And after years of reporting on policies like family separation, she says she recognizes all too well that look of fear on Liam Ramos face, the five year old boy who was detained by ICE agents back in January. She joins Michelle Martin to explain how all of this reshapes the lives of immigrant families across the country.

[Michelle Martin]

Thanks, Christiane. Caitlin Dickerson, thanks so much for talking with us once again.

[Caitlin Dickerson]

Thanks for having me.

[Michelle Martin]

And the last time you spoke with us was just after you had won the Pulitzer Prize. It was for your reporting into the Trump administration's family separation policy. Your latest pieces look at a new phase of enforcement under the current administration. What exactly are you looking at?

[Caitlin Dickerson]

So there's been a real transition from the first into the second Trump administration with a lot more focus on enforcement within the United States. ICE has been arresting many people who've lived in the United States for years or decades who have deeply established lives. And the most recent piece that I published is about one of those families, the Cruz family, who had lived in New York for 20 years. They had two daughters. They were homeowners, very deeply established in their community, and they decided to leave even though the mother in this family is a US Born American citizen, because they, I think rightly intuited soon after Trump was elected that this new phase of enforcement was going to focus on people just like the father in this family and they wanted to leave rather than wait for ICE to come and pick him up.

[Michelle Martin]

The family separation policy, one of the things you reported is that the idea was that this would be a deterrent strategy, that people would see how traumatic this was, that it was intended to be traumatic. And the idea was, well, if people see that, they'll stop coming. Did that work?

[Caitlin Dickerson]

It didn't work at the time. And you have to think about the context that we were in, in that moment. I mean, there were so many people who were leaving Central America because of dire circumstances there and felt like they had no other option. You know, many families who were coming to the United States felt like they were fleeing certain death. And anything looks more appealing than that. But that deterrence approach, this idea of making border crossing or living in the United States without status as uncomfortable, you know, as risky and it's dangerous and disturbing, all the adjectives we can think of to people and to their families, that is very much something that we're still seeing today. It's part of the deportation campaign that is ongoing right now. And the Trump administration has been open about that. They want to send a very scary message to discourage people from immigrating to the United States or from staying here once they've arrived.

[Michelle Martin]

And again, this is going back to sort of the earlier reporting. The Biden administration had a different idea.

[Caitlin Dickerson]

The Biden administration's idea, looking at all of these new border crossers, especially Venezuelans, was to try to normalize a process in some way to allow them to come in legally. So they created the CBP1 app, which allowed people to go online and apply for an appointment for an interview at a port of entry. If they passed that interview, they were then paroled into the United States and allowed to continue with the asylum seeking process legally. And that was their way of trying to create the some level of order. But of course, as soon as Trump took office the second time, he canceled that program. And people who'd entered the country legally lost their status, became subject to ISIS deportation campaign.

[Michelle Martin]

So that's why we now see people who had, they were not sort of normalized into the process. Like they hadn't achieved, say, a green card, they hadn't achieved American citizenship, but who had in fact applied under the system. Now that's why we see people who are, say, at immigration check ins being arrested. Those are some of those folks.

[Caitlin Dickerson]

That's exactly right. And to be clear, this is not because the immigrants themselves are slow walking their process toward legalization. It's very typical when you seek asylum in the United States because the courts are so backlogged, you won't have a final court hearing until three, five, seven years out. So people were going to these check ins as part of the process of hoping to ultimately win legal status in court. One of those families, who's most famous, who your viewers probably know well, the story of Liam Ramos, the five year old who was from Ecuador, his family was in exactly this type of process when they were detained.

[Michelle Martin]

And people know him because of his photo in the bunny hat. The Little boy in the bunny hat, which went viral, remind people of what happened. What exactly happened in that case? How did this little boy wind up being detained?

[Caitlin Dickerson]

So based on what we know from DHS's official account, as well as eyewitness accounts, and there have been lots of discrepancies on these individual stories that we as journalists have dug into. So I want to emphasize this is the best information that we have, is that ICE went to Liam's house to arrest his father. His father was not charged or convicted of any criminal issue, so it's not clear why he was personally being targeted. But what it seems happened is that Liam was somehow outside of the house. The father was inside the house. And ICE tried to coax a parent to come outside and pick up Liam, but also at the same time to try to arrest that parent. And ultimately that's what happened. Liam's mother stayed inside with her other children. Liam's father went outside to get him from the ICE officials. Both of them were detained. They were ultimately transferred to the Dilley Immigration Processing center, which is the family detention facility in Texas. It opened in 2014 and has really been mired in controversy from the very beginning. The United States is one of the only wealthy countries in the world that even attempts family detention as a deterrent measure because child welfare experts consistently find that there's really no way to humanely do it. They find that family detention is really damaging to children's mental and physical health. And you could see, see that in just the course of a week and a half, there was a photograph of Liam in his bunny hat outside his house. He looks sad and scared, but he looks healthy and bright eyed. And then a photo of him in the Dilley Immigration Processing center, which is. He had this look that I've seen so many times in children, including children at Dilley. He wasn't eating, he had a fever, he was vomiting. Kids tend to get very sick there. They refuse to eat the food because they find it to be disgusting. The lights are on all night 24 7, so kids can't sleep, sleep. And it was really no surprise to me how quickly he deteriorated based on where he was being held.

[Michelle Martin]

You've been there. Can you confirm the conditions that that have been described?

[Caitlin Dickerson]

I've toured it, I've looked at it closely. And it's part of this national experiment, frankly, that's been going on in family detention since the early 2000s. And Dilley is a very expensive facility. For a time, it was ICE's most expensive detention facility because so many Lawsuits found that children in ICE custody were becoming malnourished, they were losing weight, they were becoming gravely ill. That almost in response to that, the Obama administration moved to open Dilley in hopes that it would be more accommodating and more safe for children. So Dilley is this interesting place because when you take a tour like I have, you see these amenities that the government has introduced. You know, a hair salon where kids can go and get their hair cut. They have classrooms with smart boards, real efforts or real signs that ICE tried to create something that didn't feel and look like a jail. But the problem is that the more time that you spend there, you see how those two things are really fundamentally incompatible. So though I saw these amenities, I saw that the lights were on, as I mentioned, 24 7, and you can see how exhausted the families look. And then one of the biggest complaints that families have is that they say that the water is rancid. And so people don't want to drink water. Women don't want to use the water to create baby formula because they fear that it's not safe. I went into the cafeteria, and I can confirm that I personally wouldn't be able to eat in a place that had that smell. I had a mother I interviewed at Dilly who told me that her son would throw up every time they even approached the dining hall because the smell was so bad. And it's very common for kids to not eat.

[Michelle Martin]

So I'll just say that there were 911 calls from inside the facility, captured children with fever struggling to breathe. In response, this week, the Department of Homeland Security told NBC News that parents and children at Dilley are, quote, housed in facilities that cater to their safety, security, and medical needs, unquote, and that some are getting the best healthcare they've received in their entire lives. That's from the Department of Homeland Security. Separately, in your recent reporting on Liam Ramos, you included a statement from Todd Bryan, who is a spokesperson for CoreCivic. That's the company that operates Dilley. He said that the company doesn't, quote, cut corners on care, staff or training, unquote, and that, quote, emergency medical services are activated immediately when a child's clinical presentation exceeds what can be safely managed on site. And in recent court filings, ICE describes Dilley as a, quote, model of regulatory compliance and humane care. And what you're saying is that that just doesn't square. So what happened to Liam Ramos? I mean, can you just sort of. What's the status now of that family?

[Caitlin Dickerson]

Liam Ramos was lucky in the sense that his case garnered so much attention, lawyers were able to file a habeas corpus petition for his detention at Dilley, and he was released within two weeks. He's back at home with his family now recovering, and they're continuing with the legal asylum process. But it's important to point out, you know, this year, the population at Dilley has hovered between 900 and 1400. That's a lot of people. This is a facility that can hold up to 2400 people. And I think the Trump administration has been very clear that they hope to detain as many as possible possible. And so there are hundreds or thousands of kids like Liam who are still detained now, are going to be detained at Dilly and won't be released. These habeas petitions, they have to be filed one at a time. They're a complicated legal process. You have to have a lawyer to represent you who's willing to do it. Even though I've spoken to lawyers who've gotten clients, including Liam, released from Dilley, and they talk about how these habeas petitions, the legal logic behind them applies to many kids in the facility, but they can't file cases for every single one. So Liam is back at home, but many other children are not.

[Michelle Martin]

And when you've talked to people in the administration, as I know you do, about why they are employing these tactics, what does the department say about the way they're conducting these deportations, these raids, going into people's homes, et cetera?

[Caitlin Dickerson]

Two things, primarily, I would say the first. The first is that they're under unprecedented pressure. Stephen Miller wants 3,000 arrests per day, a number that ICE has never come close to. And it's been made very clear to people who work in immigration enforcement that if they can't show that they are doing as much as they possibly can to make as many arrests and deportations happen on a daily basis, then their job is at risk. And so people are facing pressure to make arrests, regardless of who it is that they're going after, regardless of what sorts of story that the background story that they might have, you know, concerns within the community, ties to the community, pushback that's going to come from local elected officials or local leaders. Those things are all going by the wayside because there's just so much pressure coming straight from the White House to make as many arrests as possible. The second thing that I'm hearing from people who work in the administration is that a lot of what we're seeing relates to the fact that we've just seen so much turnover within ICE and at DHS that lots of veteran deportation officers I know people who've worked at higher ranks within ICE and DHS have left the agency.

[Michelle Martin]

So as we are speaking, the person who had headed the Department of Homeland Security since the beginning of this Trump administration, the second Trump administration, Cristino, former South Dakota governor, was fired by the president. But now the president has nominated, has said he's going to nominate the current senator from Oklahoma, Mark Wayne Mullen, to this post who has no law enforcement experience. I do want to point out, does it suggest anything to you about the direction of the administration's enforcement strategies?

[Caitlin Dickerson]

I don't think that we're going to see a significant change or a scaling back of the deportation campaign in any way. I think that the Trump administration realized after Minnesota, after the deaths in particular of Renee Good and Alex Preddy, who were US Citizen protesters, the public was very upset about their deaths, as well as, frankly, the deaths of immigrants who were being pursued by ICE and ended up fatally shot or injured as well, that the public was not okay with the kind of aggressive street enforcement and escalation that they were seeing on the news. However, while, as I mentioned, those tactics were new and novel, ICE arrests and deportations are not. And historically, they've really tried to go about their work in a way that's as discreet as possible. And so I think we'll see ICE under Senator Mullen, if he's confirmed, go back to being less visible but no less effective. The administration and Senator Mullen have been very clear. They want to continue Trump's campaign of enforcement. They want to get as many deportations done as possible. I think that Kristi Noem's departure as Homeland Security Secretary had to do both with personal differences with the president, as well as the need or the thinking that perhaps a turnover in leadership might calm the public down, frankly, the backlash that ICE was facing down. But the administration has been very clear they are undeterred. They plan to continue this enforcement campaign as aggressive.

[Michelle Martin]

Caitlin Dickerson, thanks so much for sharing this reporting with us.

[Caitlin Dickerson]

Thank you so much for having me, Michelle.

[Christiane Amanpour]

That is it for now. If you ever miss our show, you can find the latest episode shortly after it airs on our podcast. And remember, you can always catch us online, on our website and all over social media. Thank you for watching and goodbye from London.

[Reza Aslan]

Hey, I'm Anderson Cooper. On my podcast All There Is, we explore grief and loss in all its complexities. You'll hear deeply moving and honest discussions with people who have faced and are living with life altering losses. My conversations with Robert Irwin Robert Green grew up in the public eye. His dad, Steve Irwin, was known around the world as the Crocodile Hunter.

[Christiane Amanpour]

But one of the greatest gifts in

[Reza Aslan]

my life is the fact that my

[Christiane Amanpour]

entire existence and my childhood growing up

[Elliot Abrams]

with dad was all captured on camera.

[Christiane Amanpour]

I mean, it is all there and you watch dad for two seconds and you get a pretty good picture of the sort of passionate individual that he was talking.

[Reza Aslan]

Grief, building community. That's what the podcast is all about. This is all there is. Listen and follow wherever you get your podcasts.