Iran War Embroils Region and Beyond

Summary

Amanpour: Iran War Embroils Region and Beyond

Date: March 7, 2026
Host: Christiane Amanpour, CNN International

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Episode Overview

This episode, hosted by Christiane Amanpour from London, examines the rapidly escalating war against Iran led by the U.S. and Israel, its unclear objectives, widening regional instability, and the reverberations felt globally. Key political figures, dissidents, intelligence experts, and observers weigh in on what led to this “war of choice,” the fragmented rationales, and bleak scenarios for Iran and the region.

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Key Segments & Discussion Points

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1. Senator Chris Murphy: American Confusion and Fury

[03:24–09:59]

Lack of Strategy and Communication

• Amanpour introduces Senator Chris Murphy’s critique: absence of a clear exit strategy or public rationale for the war.
• Murphy describes the Trump administration's war messaging as “about as incoherent, incompetent and confusing a rollout of military action overseas as I've ever seen.” ([01:00, 03:24])
• Cites conflicting stories from Trump ("America dragged Israel in") and Secretary of State Rubio ("Israel dragged America in"), with no consistent goals: regime change, targeting nuclear/missile sites, or propping up domestic protests.

Prospect of an Endless War

• Murphy foresees months or even a whole year of open-ended bombing unless America intends regime change and direct occupation.
• “That’s a recipe for almost endless war in the region. That, I think, would be shocking to the American people.” ([05:38])
• Draws parallels with Israel’s long campaign in Gaza post-Oct 7, 2024.

Public Opinion & Domestic Consequences

• Polls show only ~30% public support; Murphy predicts approval will plummet further as casualties mount and costs rise.
• “Nobody in America wants this war.” ([06:19])

Abandoning the Iranian People

• Distress at the administration urging Iranians to rise up, yet expressing no willingness to materially support them.
• “If we are going to encourage the Iranian people to come out on the streets and then pull the rug out from under them…There could be a slaughter afoot because the Iranian people think that the United States has their back. But Donald Trump I don't think has any intention to go that far.” ([07:30–08:52])
• References the Cold War Hungary and Iraqi Shiites in 1991 as tragic precedents.

Notable Quote

“This is just what happens when you have, you know, a senile old man surrounded by a bunch of incompetent sycophants making decisions as serious as war in the Middle East.”
— Chris Murphy ([09:06])

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2. Inside Iran: Voices from Under Bombardment

Guest: Mehdi Mahmoudian, democracy activist & screenwriter
[13:32–17:15]

Dual Emotions Amid Crisis

• Mahmoudian describes the mix of joy at the death of repressive leaders and sorrow at the foreign invasion of Iran.
• “Feelings can be easily seen on the faces of the people, both joy at the death of the dictator and sadness that the war had begun and that it would probably bring decades of suffering to Iran.” ([13:32])

Hope for Democratic Change, Not Foreign Imposition

• Advocates for regime change by Iranians themselves, not by foreign intervention: “Allow us to determine our own fate by stopping the war of attrition.” ([14:28])
• Reports a subdued, fearful, but quietly exultant atmosphere in Tehran, as the institutions of oppression are destroyed.

On Violence and Justice

• Cites his Oscar-nominated film as a plea to break cycles of victimization: “We want to stop this cycle of violence...But what needs to be stopped is the structure in which someone gives himself the right to torture.” ([16:26])

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3. Saudi Arabia’s Prince Turki al-Faisal: Caught Between Apocalypses

[18:28–23:54]

The Region as Collateral

• Asserts that both Israel and Iran are acting out “apocalyptic agendas.” Israelis seek “Greater Israel”; Iran seeks return of the ‘absent Imam’; American Christian Zionists project their own end-times narrative.
• “We’re in for a long haul, if you like, not just on the American side, but also on the Iranian side.” ([18:28])
• Anger in the Gulf at being dragged into conflict — Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others warned America not to attack Iran; Iran’s retaliation hit neutral states, shattering the region’s stability.

Israel’s Motives and Diplomacy Fallout

• Prince Turki doubts claims that Israel is a “winner,” asserting that Netanyahu drove America into this war for personal/political reasons.
• “Netanyahu has been trying to do this in order to get away from the murky and terrible conduct that he led Israel into...” ([22:54])

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4. Sir John Sawyers, Former MI6 Chief: Warning from History

[26:42–32:35]

“Unnecessary War” & Fractured Rationales

• Calls U.S.–Israeli intervention “an unnecessary war” not justified by any imminent threat.
• “The rationale, to the extent that there is one, is that it secures Israel for decades to come. That’s what the Israelis think, and they would like to see the end of this Islamic republic in Iran.” ([28:05])
• Predicts the “best” outcome is a Venezuela-type managed transition, but warns of dangerous scenarios: state collapse, fragmentation like in Syria, terrorism proliferation.

Risks of Proxy Uprising

• Concern over reports that CIA may be arming Iranian Kurds: echoes of 1991 in Iraq where U.S. encouraged uprisings they did not support, culminating in massacre and the need for a no-fly zone.
• “I think it's been. It was as unwise of Trump to call on the Iranian people to rise up as it was unwise of George H.W. bush to call on the Iraqi people to rise up in 1991.” ([30:31])

Refugee Crisis and Western Blowback

• Points to profound risks for Europe and the U.S.: “How many million Iranian refugees is the United States prepared to accept as a consequence of this war? Those are unanswered questions because people are not looking down that road.” ([31:00])

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5. Lessons from Iraq: Amanpour's Baghdad Reporting

[34:08–36:42]

Haunted by the Past

• Amanpour plays her 2003 Baghdad reporting. Civilian suffering escalated rapidly after “regime change.” Hospitals were overwhelmed, order disintegrated.
• “It is important to consider how quickly an invasion, a competent military operation, could descend into what transpired in Iraq, which was a failed state.” ([36:42])

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6. Cultural Heritage Threatened

[39:00–end]

Iran’s Cultural Loss

• UNESCO scrambles to protect historic sites as strikes damage the Golestan Palace and Tehran’s Azadi Stadium; in Israel, an Iranian missile destroys a synagogue.
• “Destroying cultural heritage robs future generations of the history that helped shape them.”

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Chris Murphy ([03:24]):
  “This is about as incoherent, incompetent and confusing a rollout of military action overseas as I've ever seen.”
• Mehdi Mahmoudian ([13:32]):
  “Feelings can be easily seen on the faces of the people, both joy at the death of the dictator and sadness that the war had begun and that it would probably bring decades of suffering to Iran.”
• Prince Turki al-Faisal ([18:28]):
  “Here in the area we’re facing two agendas, one, both of them apocalyptic...”
• Sir John Sawyers ([28:05]):
  “The first thing to say, Christiane, is this is an unnecessary war.”
• Amanpour (About Iraq, [36:42]):
  “It is important to consider how quickly an invasion, a competent military operation, could descend into what transpired in Iraq, which was a failed state.”

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Important Timestamps

• [03:24]–[09:59]: Sen. Murphy on incoherence, no public support, endangerment of Iranian civilians
• [13:32]–[17:15]: Mahmoudian from Tehran – dual feelings, hopes for self-determination, plea against cycles of violence
• [18:28]–[23:54]: Prince Turki al-Faisal on apocalyptic agendas, Saudi/Gulf perspective, doubts about Israel’s aims
• [26:42]–[32:35]: Sir John Sawyers on failed rationales, risks of state collapse, echoes of Iraq & Syria
• [34:08]–[36:42]: Amanpour’s Iraq reporting, warning from history
• [39:00]–end: Damage to cultural heritage, fear for future generations

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Conclusion

The episode delivers a searing critique of the rush to war with Iran, exposing confusion and division among U.S. leaders, the shock and anguish among both Iranians and regional neighbors, and the dangerous echoes of Iraq’s bloody collapse. Every guest agrees: lacking clear, achievable aims risks an open-ended, destabilizing conflict whose consequences may haunt the region and the world for generations. As Amanpour concludes, the greatest certainty is that innocent civilians and cultural history are already paying the price.

Transcript

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Hello everyone and welcome to the Amanpour Hour. Here's where we're headed this week, a week at war that's already spilled way beyond Iran's borders. We get the global perspective on what's being called the U.S. and Israel conflict of choice. First, U.S. democratic Senator and Foreign Relations Committee member Chris Murphy furious response to a lack of any exit strategy.

[A]

This is about as incoherent, incompetent and confusing a rollout of military action overseas as I've ever seen.

[B]

Then from inside Iran, I talked to democracy activist Mehdi Mahmoudian, who co wrote the Oscar nominated drama It Was Just an Accident and was until recently a political prisoner of the regime. And with the Gulf under fire, Saudi Arabia's former intelligence director warns of the apocalyptic approach from all involved.

[C]

We're in for a long haul.

[B]

Plus, are America's allies being swept up in something they tried to avoid? Britain's former spymaster John Sawyers joins me also in the program, Warnings from History, my archive from Iraq, how the last US Effort at regime change went awry.

[D]

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[B]

back up right now. Welcome to the program everyone. I'm Christiane Amanpour in London. A week of war with Iran. But does anyone have any clear idea what the plan is, what will constitute victory and how it will all end? The U.S. administration's goals and motivations have been shifting dramatically ever since the bombing began last Saturday morning with a massive attack that killed Iran's top religious leader Ayatollah Khamenei and much of his senior staff in a first ever joint U. S. Israel war. Since then, both of them have been surprised by the the scope of Iran's retaliation all over the Persian Gulf, in Israel, and even threatening NATO and European targets. President Trump ended the week insisting that somehow he must decide who Iran's next leader will be, while experts warn against thinking Iran is Venezuela. And also he seemed to wash his hands of helping the Iranian people overthrow their oppressors. All this week I've been speaking to leaders around the world about the outcome of and why a clear war aim matters to avoid mission creep. First, to Washington amid a war without approval from Congress or the American people. According to the polls, Democratic Senator Chris Murphy was briefed along with all his colleagues by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and he joined me here with a furious response. Senator Murphy, welcome back to the program. What is your understanding of the progress of this war on Iran?

[A]

Well, first of all, I have no idea why we entered this war because Donald Trump has one story and Marco Rubio has another story. Rubio says we got dragged into the war by Israel. He's effectively said that, that this was a defensive action because we worried there was going to be an attack on the United States. Donald Trump says no. In fact, we dragged Israel into this war. They have lots of different goals. They seem to be targeting the nuclear program, the missile program. Trump seems to be talking pretty regularly about regime change, cheerleading the Iranian people to come out into the streets. It's really unclear to me, even after having sat in the briefing yesterday, why we entered the war and what the goals are. It looks as if it's pretty open ended that we may be at war with Iran, bombing Iran for months, if not the better part of this year. This is about as incoherent, incompetent and confusing a rollout of military action overseas as I've ever seen.

[B]

Can I just stop you there and pick up on what you just said? Months or the better part of the rest of this year? That's 11 months to be precise. Israel, as we know, has done that in Gaza for the, for two years after October 7th. You think that the United States is capable of bombing a country for a whole nother year?

[A]

Donald Trump has talked about regime change and certainly Israel is talking about regime change. And of course, this has to be a regime change operation because they specifically targeted the ayatollah and many people surrounding him. It doesn't actually seem like we care too much who runs the country. Our intelligence services acknowledge that it'll be hardliners that will still be committed to provocation in the region and rebuilding a missile program, and rebuilding a nuclear program. And it doesn't appear that we are going to support the Iranian people and their efforts to overtake the regime and start a transition to democracy. So if that's all true, the only way that you can stop Iran from restarting its missile program, restarting its nuclear program, restarting its drone program is to be constantly bombing Iran. Every time they try to start a new drone factory, you bomb that factory. That seems to be the administration's plan right now, that's a recipe for almost endless war in the region. That's, I think, would be shocking to the American people. But I don't really know any other way to read their strategy or their explanation of their strategy.

[B]

Senator, do you think if you've looked at the polls, right, you know what the American people are thinking? What are they thinking? You know, often when a country goes to war, people rally around the flag, et cetera. Are they doing that?

[A]

Well, I mean, people have no idea why we're at war with Iran. The president did, you know, absolutely no work at explaining the American people why this was essential. You know, even back in the Iraq war days, though, that was never, you know, that ended up being a very unpopular war. The president explained it to the American people. Donald Trump hasn't told folks why we're doing this. It's going to be increasingly unpopular. It's already supported BY Only maybe 30% of the American public. But as prices continue to go up, oil prices, the price of groceries go up, as more Americans get killed, and we were told in no uncertain terms yesterday in the briefing that more Americans are going to die. This is going to become maybe the most unpopular military engagement in the history of the country. And a president whose approval ratings are already around 30% are going to plummet into the 20s and the teens. This shouldn't be about politics, but nobody in America wants this war.

[B]

What did you hear from Secretary Rubio about the commitment to helping the Iranian people, if indeed they do take America up on what it's urging them to do, and that is protest and try to overthrow their regime.

[A]

So it appears to me that we are not willing, that the Trump administration is not willing, based upon the comments that they have made to us, to support the Iranian people in their efforts to depose this regime and start a transition to a democracy. And that is unforgivable given the fact that, as you mentioned, Donald Trump has told the Iranian people to get out into the streets. But if they go out into the streets, they are going to be slaughtered. The Iranian military is still very powerful. We maybe have taken out their missile capability, but we haven't taken out their ability to wage war domestically on the streets of Iran. And if we are going to encourage the Iranian people to come out on the streets and then pull the rug out from under them, not give them the support that they need. And by the way, an air campaign doesn't help them in, you know, peaceful protests, that would have to be American ground forces. It Seems that we are readying to leave the Iranian people out to dry, that we're going to tell them, get out on the streets, and then we're going to give them no support. Reminiscent of Hungary during the Cold War, Iraq in the 1990s. There could be a slaughter afoot because the Iranian people think that the United States has their back. But Donald Trump I don't think has any intention to go that far.

[B]

That would be a terrible betrayal. Senator, the president has stood up in public over and again, urging them and promising them help is on the way. I know that Hegseth yesterday said, this is not about regime change. So what's changed, do you think?

[A]

Well, I don't think anything has changed. They're just incompetent and incoherent. I mean, I think every single day Donald Trump gives a different rationale for this is just what happens when you have, you know, a senile old man surrounded by a bunch of incompetent sycophants making decisions as serious as war in the Middle East. One day they say the Iranian people get out there, take over the government. The next day they say, actually, we don't care who's in charge of Iran. If you want to go out there and try to take out this regime, Iranian people, you're on. You're your own. I think the rhetoric will flip another six times between now and next Monday. That's just what you get when you have, you know, I mean, people who just aren't up for the job when you have a talk show host running the Department of Defense.

[B]

Coming up, the view from inside Iran. As the bombs fall, I talk to democracy activist, dissident and acclaimed screenwriter Mehdi Mahoudian. Hey, everyone, it's Audie. And I've got another special episode of the Assignment for you. I was at the podcast festival known as On Air Fest that was in Brooklyn just last week. And for this I knew I wanted to bring along a friend because we're going to talk about work, spouses. And mine for a very long time was Ari Shapiro of npr.

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Welcome back to the program. Most of the information and briefings come from the US And Israeli administrations. Communications blackouts have hampered the view from Iran, not to mention leaders pretty much trying to hide out from repeated assassination attempts. The country sustaining this unprecedented bombardment with civilian casualties is mounting fast, including more than 100 at a girls school. Given the nature of the Iranian regime's fight for survival now and its history of violent crackdowns on dissent and protest, it was especially courageous of my next guest to join me from there to explain exactly what he and the majority of Iranians want. He is one of Iran's best known democracy dissidents jailed many times over the past decade, who also co wrote the Oscar nominated film it was just an accident. In fact, just before the bombs began raining death and destruction all over in Pete Hegseth's words, Mahmoudyan had been released from his latest spell inside even prison, this time for writing an open letter blasting the now dead Supreme Leader for launching the brutal and bloody crackdown on protesters in January. I spoke to Mahmudian just before an intense overnight bombardment on Tehran, which he later told us was quote, unquote terrifying. Mehdi Mahmoudian, welcome to our program from Tehran. I can't tell you how pleased we are to have you. Can you just tell me how it is for you, what it is like the bombing? How do you feel about it?

[E]

What happened in the streets of Tehran and after the war in Tehran brought out two different feelings in us. One was a sense of joy that those who had played a role in suppressing the people, those who had killed thousands of people in the streets or had ordered massacres, were killed and were no longer there to continue the repression. On the other hand, we were sad that our country had been invaded and the countries had attacked our country based on their own interests and these Feelings can be easily seen on the faces of the people, both joy at the death of the dictator and sadness that the war had begun and that it would probably bring decades of suffering to Iran.

[B]

Do you think, Mehtima Ahmudian, that there is a possibility to change your regime? And how do you think it should happen? Who should be leading the change?

[E]

I was in prison for at least nine years, and I hoped that I and all my friends and comrades in Iran who are fighting to confront tyranny and replace it with a democratic system. We hoped that we could establish the system with the help of civil society and the Iranian people today. I also hope that America and its allies will allow the fate of Iran to be determined by the Iranian people themselves and allow us to determine our own fate by stopping the war of attrition.

[B]

Can you tell me what the atmosphere is in Tehran right now?

[E]

Almost all the people are in their homes. Many of the incidents that are happening and the buildings that are exploding. I am very happy that the institutions of oppression are being destroyed. Just as they have humiliated the people in these years, they themselves are being humiliated and killed. And the people do not think much about their future. Of course, they are happy right now because they can see the humiliation of the Islamic Republic, the humiliation of those who have humiliated them. With all those slogans and bragging, without support in the streets, they brought the country to this point. These days, 50 or 100 people walk in the streets chanting slogans in the style of 1400 years ago, and they are causing more fear among the people so that the people do not come out.

[B]

You are also co writer, along with the director Jafar Panahi, of a film called It Was Just an Accident, which has been nominated for an Oscar. Now, this is a story of former prisoners who kidnapped a man who they found on the outside, who they believe they recognized as one of their prison torturers. What do you want to say about those who were tortured and those who are the abusers and the torturers?

[E]

We try to say in this film that the cycle of violence must stop. Somewhere, somewhere, we must stop this cycle of violence as people who have paid the price and suffered harm. If we, like those interrogators, inflict violence like that structure of the Islamic Republic, it won't make much difference to them. The injured person will be replaced with the victim, and the victim will be replaced with a torturer. What we had to convey with this message was first, to say that we want to stop this cycle of violence, and second, that we basically recognize the torturer the one who inflicts harm by force and he should be tried as the perpetrator. But what needs to be stopped is the structure in which someone gives himself the right to torture.

[B]

Mehti Mahmudyan, thank you so much for talking to us so frankly from a nation under war and calling for change, as you are doing. Thank you very much. And you can see my full conversation with Mehti [e-mail] Coming up. Red lines crossed. Qatar's words. Anger in the Persian Gulf states being dragged into this war by Iran. The view from key US Ally and regional power. Saudi Arabia is next. Welcome back to the program. Persian Gulf states have been shocked at the extent of Iran's retaliation, not just on US Military bases there, but on their own economies, civilians and most importantly, a decades long projection of stability in this roiling region. All that shattered this week. U.S. embassies and the CIA station in Saudi Arabia were targeted. I reached Prince Turki al Faisal in the capital, Riyadh. He was the kingdom's intelligence chief and ambassador to Washington and London. And I asked if Saudi sees any clear rationale for this war or the way out.

[C]

The dangers of expanding and widening the conflict exist at the moment and there has to be a stop to it. Unfortunately, I don't think that the bombing campaign that the Americans and the Israelis have begun is going to put a stop to that. Whatever information I have is that the Iranians are pretty well stocked with missiles and drones and have been preparing for this kind of eventuality not only by the time of the last conflict in June, but even from before that. So we're in for a long haul, if you like, not just on the American side, but also on the Iranian side. One thing I must make clear, Ms. Amanpour, is that here in the area we're facing two agendas, one, both of them apocalyptic, one from Israel, which is the Greater Israel agenda. This has been talked about by Netanyahu and by other Israeli officials. Israel wants to expand from the Nile river to the Euphrates. And the other one, of course, is the Iranian agenda, which is the return of the absent imam who disappeared something like seven or eight centuries ago and he will come back and make the world a peaceful place and prepare for the coming of Christ. The third agenda that is affecting us and which has impact in the United States and in other places is the Christian Zionist agenda, which wants to see a return of the Messiah. And the existence of Israel in their theology and their terminology is necessary for that to happen. So where are the if you like, in the middle of these three agendas that are operating to expand their vision onto the rest of us. And the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, of course, works with its Gulf allies to try to put a stop to all this bloodshed and carnage that is taking place.

[B]

I just want to pick up on what you said about the apocalyptic visions because you've mentioned, you know, from the Israeli perspective, from the Iranian perspective, and from the American perspective. And in fact, this week there have been reports and complaints by many American officers and soldiers through their chain of command about being told that US Troops war on Iran is part of Armageddon. So that's what they have been told in some of their, in some of their units and in some of their bases by their commanding officers. I want to ask you about what appears to be some surprise in the region, maybe in Saudi Arabia, in Qatar, some anger about the, the response by Iran.

[C]

Amazingly, they're hitting countries that were, you know, let's call them neutral. Right. They lived together for a long time. They, I think they were surprised.

[D]

I was surprised.

[C]

I think it. And now those countries are all fighting against them and fighting strongly against them.

[B]

Are you surprised at the extent of Iran's retaliation?

[C]

Well, I am surprised at the president's surprise. Respectfully, I would recall that the crown Prince and other Gulf readers have been urging America not to undertake military action against Iran because all of us believe that that action will not remain confined to Iran, that Iran will retaliate against American presence in the area which is present in all of the Gulf states and as far away as Turkey, apparently. So if he was surprised, I don't think Saudi or other Gulf readers were surprised. They've been warning the Americans not to undertake military action and suffer the consequences.

[B]

I want to ask you a final and quick question. People are saying that Israel stands to be the biggest winner out of all of this. Do you think that's the case, and do you think that it makes normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia any closer?

[C]

Well, forget normalization, let alone what Israel is doing in Gaza and the West Bank. You know, this is Netanyahu's war. You talked about the dog and the tail. Who's wagging who? It is definitely Mr. Netanyahu, who, as you mentioned, seven trips to America, and obviously he somehow convinced the president to support his views. And so Netanyahu has been trying to do this in order to get away from the murky and terrible conduct that he led Israel into, not just in Gaza, but in the West Bank. And internally, he wants to change the constitution of Israel to allow him to undertake whatever he wants to do without checking. So that is why he has been pushing for this war, is to drive people's attention away from what is happening on the ground in Palestine.

[B]

Prince Turki Al Faisal, thank you very much.

[C]

Thank you.

[B]

And many reject the notion coming from Israel and the United States that there was an imminent threat from Iran that demanded this war. Right now, they're calling it a war of choice.

[D]

Coming up, the very best you can expect is a sort of Venezuela type outcome. But there are plenty of other more dangerous outcomes coming from this Britain's former

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And next day on the CNN app. Welcome back. This unprecedented joint U. S. Israeli war, it's fair to say, has stirred mostly opposition, fear and concern around the world, including among allies, as the fallout affects them all. By the end of the week, the Trump administration seemed to convene around a more narrow objective to degrade Iran's missile ability and end the nuclear program, which Trump had already claimed to have obliterated in the bombings last summer. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez opposes the strikes and got a smackdown from Trump, as did the British prime minister who said he didn't believe in, quote, regime change from the skies and at first denied US Bombers use of UK Bases for offensive purposes before changing his position, but only for defensive action. When former MI6 spy chief Sir John Sawyers came into the studio here, he was very concerned that all this might end in the chaos of a collapsed state and massive blowback for the region and the West. Sir John Sawyers, welcome back to the program at this really critical time.

[D]

Thank you, Christiaan.

[B]

I want to ask you first, from the British perspective, Trump has now openly criticized in front of another European leader, Chancellor Merz Britain. He's very angry that Prime Minister Starmer didn't allow UK Bases to be used in those first strikes by the Americans. Can I just play what Trump said?

[C]

There would have been much more convenient landing there as opposed to flying many extra hours. So we are very surprised this is

[D]

not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with.

[B]

Can this prime minister recover from that kind of public attack?

[D]

Well, frankly, President Trump's not dealing with Winston Churchill and Keir Starmer's not dealing with Franklin Roosevelt. You know, you have two very different characters. I think they'll get over it. I've heard usually in private, sharp differences of views in the past between presidents and prime ministers. I don't think this is a major issue. And frankly, as the Americans have demonstrated, they didn't actually need access to US UK Bases. It was just a convenience for them.

[B]

Can I ask you about what's been described as the rolling rationales for this war and the rolling inconsistencies from all members of the administration, the senior members, from the president on down to what might be the exit strategy or any strategy. What do you think? Can you discern a rationale for the war as stated?

[D]

Well, the first thing to say, Christiane, is this is an unnecessary war. It was not required because it was not as if it was to preempt an imminent threat against the United States or indeed against Israel. The rationale, to the extent that there is one, is that it secures Israel for decades to come. That's what the Israelis think, and they would like to see the end of this Islamic republic in Iran. And they think they will be much safer as a result. And they might be right. But this will come at a cost. The very best outcome you can expect from the current conflict is that a successor leadership comes in and behaves differently from its predecessors. Now, that is what some in America are calling the Venezuela option. Not that I think it will be easy to find a Delsey Rodriguez in Iran. Iran is a deeply ideological country or regime. I think just as dangerous is the possibility that the regime might corrode or collapse and lose control of parts of the country. And then you could have a situation like the one we faced in Syria for the last year or so where the country fragments into several different parts.

[B]

Okay, so CNN has been reporting that the CIA may be working to Arm the Kurdish groups with the aim of fomenting such an uprising. From a foreign policy perspective, from a geostrategic perspective, is it in anybody's interest?

[D]

Well, it's a dangerous road to go down, you say. Whose interest might it be in? Well, I think the Kurds themselves in Iran would probably feel more free if they were not ordered about and told what they can, what language they can speak, what flags they can fly by Tehran. There's a parallel here with the Kurds in Iraq after the 1991 war when the Iraqis did have an area which was a sort of safe haven.

[B]

Well, that's only after the president, then George H.W. bush, I was there, told them to rise up.

[C]

And there's another way for the bloodshed

[B]

to stop, and that is for the

[A]

Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to

[B]

take matters into their own hands. And the Shiites, then they got slaughtered because the Americans didn't come and help them. Then they had to spend 20 years giving them a no fly zone, which was great. But do you think Trump is prepared to give the Kurds of Iran a 20 year no fly zone?

[D]

No, I don't think he is. And I think it's been. It was as unwise of Trump to call on the Iranian people to rise up as it was unwise of George H.W. bush to call on the Iraqi people to rise up in 1991. So just getting back to your point about fragmentation, if the country dissolves into component parts, it'll be basically a failed state, an ungoverned state. And we've known from the last sort of 40 years what happens in failed states. It becomes a center for terrorism, for smuggling, for gun running, for drugs, for criminality of all sorts. And it does pose a threat to other countries. I think it's in America's interest, and it's certainly in the interest of Europe that this deeply unpleasant regime in Tehran should nonetheless be replaced by a regime which still has authority over the country that you can hold it to account. Yes, we want to change Iran's behavior, but if you, if you just dismantle the regime completely, you could end up with the sort of chaos that we've had to deal with in Afghanistan next door to Iran, or indeed in Lebanon and Libya and more recently in Syria. Now, I think there's a difference here between American interests and Israeli interests. Americans do need to be able to deal with a country the size of Iran one way or another. Now there are 90 million people in Iran. How many of those are going to flee to Turkey and try and make their way to Europe. How many million Iranian refugees is the United States prepared to accept as a consequence of this war? Those are unanswered questions because people are not looking down that road.

[E]

Now.

[D]

It's not clear that this is going to happen, but there's a risk of this happening. And the very best you can expect is a sort of Venezuela type outcome. But there are plenty of other more dangerous outcomes coming from this.

[B]

Are you worried about that? Are you worried about ever expanding circles of this conflict?

[D]

I think this conflict has already expanded beyond what most people expected. I think the scale of the Iranian response has been greater than many anticipated, perhaps wrongly, they should have anticipated.

[B]

Sir John Sawyers, thank you very much indeed.

[D]

Thank you very much.

[B]

Now there is, though, a chance and certainly a fervent hope that somehow, sometime the Iranian people will rise and change their regime, as both Trump and Israel's prime minister have been urging before now at least Trump backing off. There's likely to be a huge amount more pain on the way there. Coming up, fears grow amongst Americans about the scale of this war. When we come back, lessons from Iraq and my reporting from Baghdad 2003. That's next. Welcome back to the program. The war's civilian toll is mounting, highest and fastest in Iran. In the opening salvo, a girls elementary school in the south was struck and more than 150of them were killed, according to the Iranian government. This week, parents buried them in this lineup of graves. Both Israel and the US Say they are investigating. Several American service members have been killed and some Israeli citizens as well. With the nightmare of Iraq and Afghanistan still lingering, few Americans have any appetite to be drawn into yet another protracted and bitter war in the Middle East. In fact, polls show a clear majority are against Trump's war on Iran. Over a million US personnel ended up serving in Iraq from the 2003 invasion. 4,500 of them lost their lives and more than 32,000 were wounded. Up to a million Iraqis are thought to have died in the insurgencies and US Bombings that lasted for years. I covered the invasion of March 2003. And in the immediate aftermath, just after Saddam Hussein had been toppled, Baghdad was littered still, of course, with the evidence of war and its people bearing the true toll. Here's my report from then. Baghdad wallows in the wreckage of war, Iraqi tanks and armored vehicles blown up on the city streets, cars and trucks still waving the white flag lest they be mistaken for the enemy. And here, right in the middle of a residential neighborhood, a missile we're told a SAM two Marines are here to make sure it's safely towed away. And the people complain loudly about the fallen regime placing such targets in their midst. They said they were afraid of US Bombs dropped in this neighborhood, perhaps aiming for the missile. This is a deep crater caused by a bomb and around what seems to be the remnants of some kind of vehicle. But just 20 yards away there are private homes. And the doctors here tell us that they've received many more civilian casualties during this war than they did during the first Gulf War of 1991. This is a shell to the abdomen. We open the abdomen and have injury to the bowel. At this one hospital alone, doctors tell us they have received 500 civilians with everything from slight to critical injuries and they conducted 170 major operations in just 21 days of war. In the first war, we didn't see such a huge number.

[D]

This is number one.

[B]

And secondly, the type of injuries here is more serious, as I noticed than before. And now with the looting, Dr. Hakim says he simply can't get the staff to come to work today. No anaesthetist, no radiologist, but thanks God we cope.

[C]

What to do?

[B]

That's because they brought their own guns to keep the bandits. U.S. marines have set up a position near another hospital. Children bring them flowers and the Marines say they're trying to calm the fears of the past few chaotic days, let them know we're not here to harm them.

[A]

We're here for peace now.

[D]

That's our mission.

[B]

It's to give them security. Inside the hospital filled with more war wounded, including this five year old boy with a shrapnel wound to the head, the doctor says he's got mixed feelings. Relief that Saddam Hussein is gone, but a deep desire for more Security. When Mr. Bush and Clare and others decide to bomb and to change the regime should be planned immediately. Down by the main Marine base, a group of Iraqis decided to make that demand more clear, waving a banner calling for a new order and yelling for peace. At one point, it got ugly. In the end, though, calm prevailed, with both the Iraqis and the Marines deciding that discretion is the better part of valor. Cristiana Manpur, cnn, Batman. It is important to consider how quickly an invasion, a competent military operation, could descend into what transpired in Iraq, which was a failed state. Now the Trump administration swears that this time it is not Iraq, not a forever war. But in the first week, it has become painfully clear that what happens next in Iran is literally anyone's guess at this point. But we can be certain that innocent civilians will bear the heaviest price. When we come back, the historical and cultural sites caught in the crossfire. How UNESCO is doing what it can to protect them. That's after a break. And finally, history. Iran's goes back some 2,500 years, America's 250 years. And now UNESCO is trying to give all sides of this war the coordinates of its World Heritage sites, hoping that will protect them. It comes after precious historic and cultural buildings have come under fire. This week, the Golestan palace in downtown Tehran was damaged by the aftermath of a U. S. Israeli strike. That is according to Iranian state media. The magnificent mirrored halls are a symbol of Iranian culture which date back more than 200 years. In this case, it was also where the last shah was crowned in 1967, his seven year old son and heir Reza Pahlavi, sitting by his side. Parts of Tehran's Azadi Stadium, built to host the 1974 Asian Games in Tehran was also damaged in the strikes. Meanwhile, Israel says an Iranian strike on the town of Beit Shemesh destroyed a synagogue and killed nine people. Lives, of course, matter most today. But destroying cultural heritage robs future generations of the history that helped shape them. That's all we have time for. Don't forget, you can always find all of our shows online as [e-mail] audio and on all other major platforms. I'm Cristiana Manpour in London. Thank you for watching and I'll see you again next.

[E]

Sam.