Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nassar

Summary

Podcast Summary: Amanpour – Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nasser

Date: March 11, 2026
Host: Christiane Amanpour, CNN International
Guest: Adel Nasser, Lebanese Justice Minister
Additional Guests: Maryam Alemzadeh (Oxford University), Mostafa Danishkar (Political Analyst), Vivian Salama (The Atlantic)
Main Theme: The expanding US-Israel war against Iran and Hezbollah, its humanitarian impact on Lebanon, the Lebanese government's stance on Hezbollah, and broader regional consequences.

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1. Episode Overview

This episode delves into the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Lebanon amidst escalating conflict involving Israel, Hezbollah, and Iran, featuring an exclusive interview with Lebanese Justice Minister Adel Nasser. The conversation explores the Lebanese government’s strained response to mass displacement and devastation, the political and legal challenges posed by Hezbollah, and the intensifying dynamics of a regional war. The latter segments bring in Iranian and regional experts to discuss internal Iranian dynamics, the strength of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and the implications of broader US and Israeli military objectives, with comparative perspectives on recent regime change operations from Atlantic staff writer Vivian Salama.

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2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. Humanitarian Crisis in Lebanon

• Scale of Suffering:

  • Casualties and Displacement:
    • 570 killed, over 1400 injured, around 800,000 formally registered as displaced, likely more in reality
    • “The civilians are suffering a lot. The country is suffering from huge damages and the schools are closed. And the current situation is very difficult.” — Adel Nasser [04:13]
  • Child Casualties:
    • UNICEF reports over 10 children killed daily by Israeli strikes
  • Displaced Testimony:
    • “There is such a big difference between sitting comfortably in your own home ... [and] sleeping on the ground.” — Displaced Lebanese woman [05:16]

• Government Response:

  • Emergency shelters and 100,000 hot meals daily, but resources are very limited
  • “Despite all these problems, there is a full mobilization of the government in order to address the needs as much as possible.” — Adel Nasser [05:49]

B. Lebanon's Political & Military Challenges

• Struggle for State Monopoly of Force:

  • The government announced a policy that only the state should have a monopoly on military force, but implementation has been slow and resisted by Hezbollah.
  • “It was very important to implement the monopoly of the weapons. Hezbollah was complicating the process ... By not cooperating, it was clear that Hezbollah was offering also pretexts for Israel to strike on Lebanon.” — Adel Nasser [08:46]

• Internal Divisions Over Hezbollah:

  • Despite a government ban on Hezbollah military action, fighting continues.
  • Efforts to arrest and prosecute Hezbollah leadership (Sheikh Naim Qassem) were blocked by cabinet members.
  • “Today the government is taking the appropriate steps in order to achieve the full sovereignty of the government and the state ... Anything Hezbollah could do to prevent the state ... will have to be opposed.” — Adel Nasser [11:17]

• Army and Judicial Friction:

  • Reports of minimal punishment ($10 fines) for Hezbollah operatives caught transporting weapons led to calls for judicial investigation.
  • “From this decision, the persons who were arrested raised the issue that they belong to Hezbollah as being a line of defense. ... The decision was to condemn whatever is the amount or the terms of the condemnation.” — Adel Nasser [14:07]

• Personal Risk:

  • When asked about threats for speaking out:
    • “I think we shouldn’t put the name justice in your sentence, if you allow me to say that. ... What Hezbollah is doing is in full breach of the law ... dragging the full country into regional conflicts.” — Adel Nasser [16:05]

• Sovereignty vs. Hezbollah:

  • The government’s stance is to oppose any military activity not under state control, regardless of Hezbollah’s or Iran’s interests.
  • “The position of the government of Lebanon is clearly to ban any military activity outside the state. This is a final commitment.” — Adel Nasser [18:55]

C. Regional Escalation & International Implications

• Israeli Threats:

  • Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich declared: “You wanted to bring hell upon us. You brought hell upon yourselves. The Dahiya will look like Khan Yunis. Our northern residents will live in quiet peace and security.” [18:26]

• Strategic Concerns for Lebanon:

  • “The real problem is that we have to control our own country. ... Any diplomatical move Lebanon wants to make ... Lebanon must control the right to go to war or to go to peace.” — Adel Nasser [19:15]

D. Iranian and IRGC Dynamics

• Strength and Resilience of the IRGC:

  • “The strength of the Revolutionary Guards has not diminished significantly ... They have been built and trained to act spontaneously, independently. ... They are good at operating ad hoc, thriving in chaos.” — Maryam Alemzadeh [23:52]

• Potential for Uprising:

  • Mostafa Danishkar argues that an air campaign and domestic anger could combine to create real chances for regime collapse, though not guaranteed.
  • “People and protesters in the street, they can uprise at any moment. I disagree that IRGC is not weakening now. They are weakening.” — Danishkar [25:43]

• Limits to Regime Collapse:

  • Alemzadeh remains skeptical, citing the IRGC’s enduring decentralized power and capabilities even if regular forces are weakened.
  • “They do not need the more advanced equipment ... to repress a popular uprising.” — Alemzadeh [28:18]

• IRGC’s Societal Entanglement:

  • “It was with the excuse of defending the revolution ... This translated into an institution that is very decentralized, very prone to direct action ... It is trained in thriving in chaos.” — Alemzadeh [35:16]

• Popular Perceptions amid War:

  • “The people put the blame on the government on irgc ... their policy on eliminating Israel ... brought this war to our country.” — Danishkar [38:06]

E. U.S. and Israeli Strategy on Iran & Beyond

• US Motivations in Iran:

  • The Trump administration saw negotiations as futile, moves focused on crippling Iran’s nuclear and military capabilities, but regime change is ambiguously discussed.
  • “President Trump ... has long condemned JCPOA ... believed that regime change is absolutely imperative in Iran.” — Vivian Salama [41:48, 41:50]

• Broader Regime Change Agendas:

  • Trump has touted Venezuela’s Maduro capture as a model for intervention, with Cuba potentially in the crosshairs.
  • “He was virtually plucked from his bed, put on a ship and then a helicopter and sent to a New York City courtroom, a president of a sovereign nation.” — Vivian Salama [51:57]

• Historical Lessons & Risks:

  • “History has shown that regime change operations don’t always go very well, especially if a foreign power is dictating who should run that country.” — Vivian Salama [52:38]

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3. Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Adel Nasser (Lebanese Justice Minister):

  • “Despite all these problems, there is a full mobilization of the government in order to address the needs as much as possible.” [05:49]
  • “Hezbollah did not cooperate as much as it should ... By not cooperating, it was clear ... Hezbollah was offering also pretexts for Israel to strike on Lebanon.” [08:46]
  • “It is our duty to protect our people, our population ... Lebanon must control the right to go to war or to go to peace ... certainly not [a] movement that is acting unilaterally.” [18:55, 19:15]
  • “I think we shouldn’t put the name justice in your sentence, if you allow me to say that.” [16:05]

• Maryam Alemzadeh (on IRGC):

  • “They are good at operating ad hoc, thriving in chaos. And the history of the IRGC actually approves that.” [23:52]
  • “IRGC ... is trained in thriving in chaos. And the current war is actually another opportunity for it to become more relevant ... that a classic army would not be able to stand.” [36:24]

• Mostafa Danishkar (on protests in Iran):

  • “First is the air campaign that is handled by US and Israel ... People and protesters in the street, they can uprise at any moment.” [25:43]
  • “At the moment of confrontation in the street between the people, protesters and IRGC, they are not as united as before.” [33:05]

• Vivian Salama (on US strategy):

  • “I think they are definitely leaning toward an in and out scenario now. Easier said than done.” [44:20]
  • “History has shown that regime change operations don’t always go very well, and especially if a foreign power is dictating who should run that country.” [52:38]

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4. Important Timestamps

| Timestamp | Segment/Event | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 03:14 | Interview begins: Adel Nasser on Lebanese government efforts, responses to the war | | 05:16 | Audio of displaced Lebanese woman, illustrating civilian suffering | | 08:46 | Nasser details government efforts at monopoly of force and Hezbollah resistance | | 11:17 | Discussion of arrest/prosecution efforts against Hezbollah leadership | | 14:07 | Controversy over light sentences for Hezbollah operatives | | 16:05 | Nasser on personal risk of defying Hezbollah | | 18:26 | Israeli official threatens southern Beirut ("The Dahiya will look like Khan Yunis") | | 23:52 | Maryam Alemzadeh on resilience and structure of Iran’s IRGC | | 25:43 | Mostafa Danishkar on the weakening of the Iranian regime and potential for uprising | | 28:18 | Alemzadeh: Air attacks weakened regular forces, not IRGC’s repressive core | | 35:16 | Alemzadeh on IRGC’s informal, decentralized, chaos-thriving structure | | 38:06 | Danishkar: Popular anger at regime outweighs blame on US/Israel so far | | 41:48 | Vivian Salama analysis on Trump administration’s Iran war objectives | | 44:20 | Salama on US reluctance to widen the war to Lebanon, “in and out scenario” | | 52:38 | Salama on historical caution: foreign-imposed regime change failures |

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5. Tone and Language

• The episode is urgent, direct, and somber, with moments of passionate advocacy for sovereignty and civilian protection (notably from Adel Nasser).
• Discussions balance official statements, personal risk, and critical, sometimes skeptical, expert analysis.
• The episode maintains a focus on human and societal stakes, not only geopolitical strategy.

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Summary Table: Key Participants

| Name | Role | Topic(s) Addressed | |----------------------|-----------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------| | Christiane Amanpour | Host, CNN | Middle East war implications; conducting interviews | | Adel Nasser | Lebanese Justice Minister | Government response, sovereignty, Hezbollah challenge| | Maryam Alemzadeh | Scholar, Oxford Univ. (IRGC expert) | IRGC resilience, Iranian regime postwar scenarios | | Mostafa Danishkar | Political Analyst | Popular anger, protest potential in Iran | | Vivian Salama | Reporter, The Atlantic | U.S., Israeli strategic motives; regime change risks | | Walter Isaacson | Interviewer | U.S. and regional strategy discussions |

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For listeners seeking a deep understanding of Lebanon’s precarious position, the strength of Iranian-backed militias, and the risks of repeating failed regime change efforts, this episode offers a comprehensive, multi-perspective exploration grounded in both on-the-ground realities and hard-won historical lessons.

Transcript

[Christiana Amanpour]

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[Audie Cornish]

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[Christiana Amanpour]

All the newness is all on sale right now during the LiveWell sale on the drop by GNC. Hello everyone and welcome to amanpur. Here's what's coming up. The widening Middle east war is creating a humanitarian crisis in Lebanon as Israel ramps up its strikes against Iran and Hezbollah. The Lebanese Justice Minister joins me for an exclusive interview. Then both Iran and the United States claim to be launching their, quote, most intense operations yet. Iranian political analyst Mustafa Danishkar and Rev Revolutionary Guard scholar Maryam Alemzadeh joined me.

[Vivian Salama]

Plus they are definitely leaning toward an in and out scenario now. Easier said than done. I'm someone who's covered the Middle east for 15 years. I know that these conflicts can spiral out of control almost overnight. This is already looking that way.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Atlantic staff writer Vivian Salama speaks to Walter Isaacson about the dangers of America getting into a war with no clear plan to end it. Welcome to the program everyone. I'm Christiana Manpour in London. The U S Israel war on Iran is expanding and regional leaders and aid agency are warning that humanitarian disaster is looming as well in Iran. Israel hit a residential area in the capital overnight as well as places in the north. The the UN says it is seriously concerned about the health of the people there after strikes on Tehran's oil depots this weekend led to toxic oil filled rain falling on people across the city in Lebanon. Israel is pounding southern Beirut going after what it says are Hezbollah targets. There were more mass evacuations from there and nearly 700,000 people have already been displaced. The Lebanese government has reportedly asked Israel to pause its attacks and start some negotia. Israel, it says, has refused. As this war expands, global trade and energy are also under increasing threat. The US says it has destroyed Iranian ships being used to lay mines in the Straits of Hormuz, a vital route for global trade which usually transports a fifth of the world's oil. It's a resounding message from Iran that in this asymmetrical war, attacks by the US and Israel will not go unanswered. Now Adel Nasser is Lebanon's Justice Minister and he's joining me from Beirut. Welcome to the program.

[Adel Nasser]

Thank you for having me.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Okay, there's a bit of a delay, but I'm sure everybody understands that. Can I just first ask you to give me some clarity on what I said? Was your government asking Israel to have some negotiations over this? And Israel saying, not right now. Can you fill me in on that?

[Adel Nasser]

There was a decision from the Council of Minister and this decision opened the door for negotiations for the time being. I'm not aware personally from any positive answer regarding a possible negotiation.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Okay, so what would you say is the state of the war they say against Hezbollah in your country? What is the humanitarian fallout? Is Hezbollah still standing and fighting? Tell me where we are. A few days into this war on your country

[Adel Nasser]

as a result of the current war, there are around 570 killed, more than 1400 injured. The number of displaced you are talking about 800,000. But in reality these are only the one that has been registered. And I foresee that the number is really higher than this. There are therefore real dramatic situation in Lebanon and the civilians are suffering a lot. The country is suffering from huge damages and the schools are closed. And the current situation is very difficult.

[Christiana Amanpour]

So UNICEF also says that Israel's strikes have killed more than 10 children so far every day. Let me play for you. This displaced woman from South Lebanon, what she's saying about her situation. Here's her words in translation.

[Maryam Alemzadeh]

There is such a big difference between sitting comfortably in your own home, cooking your food, when no one tells you to get up and leave, when no one speaks harshly to you. Now, the difference is very big, Very big. Do not look at me. The difference is huge. The difference between sleeping in your own bed and sleeping on the ground.

[Christiana Amanpour]

So how are you coping, you as a government coping with the humanitarian crisis? What can you do? Can you support people like her in the street?

[Adel Nasser]

No. Can you? You can imagine that it is very difficult. Everything was very sudden. Unfortunately, the government has to cope with a huge number of displaced. The government is providing shelters, providing 100,000, if I'm not mistaken, of hot meal to the displaced per day. The situation is very difficult because the resources are not very high. However, despite all these problems, there is a full mobilization of the government in order to address the needs as much as possible. The needs are huge and the problems are huge. However, the government is working day and night to be able to cope with these huge difficulties.

[Christiana Amanpour]

And this of course is on top of the last Israel Hezbollah war, where apparently 4,000 people were killed in Lebanon. The world bank says it caused $11 billion in damage to your country and more than a million were already displaced. But now let me ask you about the central issue here, and that is the continued activity of Hezbollah and Hezbollah firing at targets inside Israel in the opening days and the US war on Iran. Now, your government is taking quite a hard line on Hezbollah. Your president has said there's a Banhe's announced a ban on all Hezbollah military actions, but they're still fighting. So what can you do? I mean, how. First of all, what can you do to stop them right now?

[Adel Nasser]

No, what is important at the beginning is to explain a little bit that after long period of time where Hezbollah was installing all its military infrastructure, this government was appointed one year ago. And this government took a first decision through its the governmental declaration that has been presented to the parliament where it was clearly stated that the monopoly of the state, of the strength must be given only to the state. And this is a condition to build a state. So this first decision was taken through this declaration. And the declaration was approved by all the ministers, including the ministers close to Hezbollah. And this decision was also presented to the parliament. And the government was granted the confidence of the parliament with MPs pertaining to Hezbollah. The government was granted the confidence. Then the government took another decision to start implementing the monopoly of the tanks in the hands of the states through the army's action. The army provided a plan and the plan was ongoing before this war erupted.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Okay.

[Adel Nasser]

And also after the. After that there was strikes coming from Israel. And Israel was taking as a pretext the presence of the military infrastructure of Hezbollah. But the position of the state is that in order to build for internal reasons and for the interest of Lebanon, it was very important to implement the monopoly of the weapons. Hezbollah was complicating the process. Hezbollah did not cooperate as much as it should in this process. And by not cooperating, it was clear that Hezbollah was offering also pretexts for Israel to strike on Lebanon. And when Hezbollah took the unilateral decision to launch rockets against Israel, they gave also the pretext to Israel to start a large war. So we were in a process of strikes and now we are in a full war. It is clear that in order for Lebanon to be able to face Israel in the diplomatical field or in diplomacy, Lebanon need to have the decision of war and peace and to be to have the monopoly of strength within Lebanon. This is a requirement that we consider as government needed for the sake of Lebanon, for the interest of all the population of Lebanon. And we consider that Hezbollah's action is an obstacle for the government to be able to take all appropriate actions to defense to defend Lebanon's interests.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Okay, so you're making a passionate case for your sovereignty and your, you know, dominance as the state rather than being sidetracked and dragged into all these wars by a local militia, that is Hezbollah. But the you yourself called for the arrest and the prosecution of the Hezbollah Secretary General Sheikh Naim Qassem, but your cabinet chose not to move forward with your proposal. Why did you call for his arrest and why doesn't your cabinet support that call? If you say the government is, you know, united for, as you call it, a monopoly, but I suppose to be a sovereign state and not get dragged around by Hezbollah,

[Adel Nasser]

Today in the government, the decision to have the monopoly of the strengths is an irrevocable decision. The problem is that we are suffering from accumulation of problems for 30 years. So today the government is taking the appropriate steps in order to achieve the full sovereignty of the government and the state and therefore to have to dismantle the Hezbollah military infrastructure. Despite that, it is clear also that the army started the process and the government will continue step by step to get to the appropriate result, which is, I say it again, not to serve any foreign interest, but to build our own state. And anything Hezbollah could do to prevent the state to be built in the interest of all the citizens will have to be opposed. Now we can study the steps to be taken in order to make sure that we are taking the appropriate steps and to support also our Lebanese army, because the Lebanese army is one essential element to be able, or to say even the essential element in order to be able to have the sovereignty of the state over all the territory.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Okay, so I hear you. Let me just ask.

[Adel Nasser]

We are committed to that first to the, we are committed to that first to the Lebanese citizens, because it is the way to protect all Lebanese citizens, wherever are their political beliefs, wherever are their religious beliefs, because at the end of the day, the state is to serve all the citizens and to protect all the citizens.

[Christiana Amanpour]

So look, you just talked about the army and the sovereignty of the state. We hear a report that last week the army of arrested three Hezbollah members who were found transporting weapons. And A military judge, that is an army judge, fined each about $10 and then released them without jail. Is there, is it just tough talk from the army? And apparently, according to CNN producer, you're the one who ordered an investigation into this judge who issued the sentence. So what's wrong with that picture? As you say, you're caught between Israel and Hezbollah and Lebanon, you know, the state suffers and the people.

[Adel Nasser]

Okay. As you may understand, as a minister of justice, I will not comment on judicial decision, and I will allow the proper institutions to address whatever is within their own jurisdiction. What I can tell you from the reading of the decision and putting aside the importance or not of the sentence, is that this decision considered that whether the person holding weapons pertains to Hezbollah or not, he is in breach of the law. And this means that the decision not in terms of the sentence and whether it is an important or not condemnation. I don't want to comment on that and I will not comment on that. However, from this decision, the persons who were arrested raised the issue that they belong to Hezbollah as being a line of defense. And despite that, the decision was to condemn whatever is the amount or the terms of the condemnation. I don't have a comment to make in the media about that. However, what I can tell you that now it is clear from the court decision that one cannot raise the fact that he pertains to Hezbollah to consider that he is entitled to hold weapons or to transport weapons.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Can I ask you personally, do you feel safe talking out. I mean, Hezbollah is known to exert its own justice, let's say its own, whatever you want to call it. I don't want to use bad words here against people who disagree and speak out against them. You saw what happened to Prime Minister Rafi Hariri. Do you feel safe taking them on?

[Adel Nasser]

First of all, I will certainly not use the word justice or its own justice. I think we shouldn't put the name justice in your sentence, if you allow me to say that.

[Christiana Amanpour]

No, but you're right. I misspoke using that word.

[Adel Nasser]

On the other. Okay. On the other hand, but let's say that when we are in a specific position, we have to take the stand we believe in in the interests of the state. And again, I can tell you that today what Hezbollah is doing is in full breach of the law, in full breach of the commitments of the government towards its own population, its own people, to stop having a parallel movement, making decisions regarding war and peace and engaging or dragging the full country into regional conflicts. If you want to assess into a political analysis based on declarations made and positions taken, it seems that Hezbollah is. Is acting as if he wants to be in a front position in the regional war between Israel and the US in one side and Iran on the other side. While the interest of Lebanon and all the people of Lebanon is to stay away of regional conflicts. We are a small country. We are a country having various numbers of communities. We can be a model of coexistence and we should be a model of coexistence and we should be a model of peace for the world and not to be dragged into the wars of the others.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Okay? So I want to end on what their action means for you as this small country. That should be a model of peace. Because right now Israeli officials are warning that Lebanon, their action in Lebanon could even continue beyond the war in Iran, if that ever ends. This is what Israel's finance minister and well known hardliner, extreme rightist speaking in northern Israel today said. This is Bezalel Smotrich. Take a listen now.

[Audie Cornish]

We are now on the northern border after the IDF instructed all residents of

[Vivian Salama]

the area to evacuate.

[Audie Cornish]

You wanted to bring hell upon us. You brought hell upon yourselves. The Dahiya will look like Khan Yunis. Our northern residents will live in quiet peace and security.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Right? Well, that's a couple of days ago. A few days ago. And he's essentially saying, you're going toyou know, the southern part of Beirut. There the Dahia could look like Khan Younis, which was leveled by the Israelis during their Gaza campaign. Do you worry?

[Adel Nasser]

I am certainly worried and I'm certainly concerned. It is clear that I'm not expecting Israel to take nice positions towards Lebanon. They never did. It is not the issue. The real problem is that we have to control our own country. And it is not acceptable that Lebanese movement, whatever are its former links to other countries, Iran, namely, should stop having these links and should act totally differently. The position of the government of Lebanon is clearly to ban any military activity outside the state. This is a final commitment. Again, I'm saying that irrespective of the position of Israel, I'm saying that because it is our duty to protect our people, our population, and moreover, any diplomatical move Lebanon wants to make. In order to be efficient, Lebanon must control the right to go to war or to go to peace. This has to be in the hands of the government of Lebanon and certainly not in the hand of a movement that is acting unilaterally without taking into consideration the interest of all the country.

[Christiana Amanpour]

All right, Minister Adel Nasser, thank you very much indeed for joining us on that. And stay with us. We'll be right back after the break.

[Vivian Salama]

Hey, everyone, it's Audie, and I've got another special episode of the Assignment for you. I was at the podcast festival known as On Air Fest that was in Brooklyn just last week. And for this I knew I wanted to bring along a friend because we're going to talk about work, spouses and mine for a very long time was Ari Shapiro of npr.

[Audie Cornish]

You heard us on the radio being very serious and during the eight minute segment when our mics are off, we would cackle about the latest thing that we had found on Reddit or on Instagram or whatever was bubbling up in the culture. And we never really got to laugh like that with each other and finish each other's sentences on the radio in quite that way.

[Vivian Salama]

No. Listen to the assignment with me, Audie Cornish. Streaming now on your favorite podcast app.

[Maryam Alemzadeh]

I'm CNN tech reporter Claire Duffy. This week on the podcast Terms of Service, is the AI market a bu waiting to burst? And if so, how should we all as individuals be thinking about our personal investments and retirement accounts? To help me answer those questions, I have Ross Mayfield here with me. He's an investment strategist for Bayard Private Wealth Management where he helps clients make informed investment decisions.

[Audie Cornish]

The dot com bubble of the late 90s is the go to example, particularly for today because it's a brand new technology. This also resembles pretty closely the mid-1800s railroad bubble, which this is my favorite bubble. Yeah, it's great, right? Because railroads are such an old school technology, but in the 1800s they were the AI of their time. It was this game changing technology.

[Maryam Alemzadeh]

Listen to CNN's terms of service wherever you get your podcasts.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Tehran says it has launched its, quote, most intense and heaviest operations since this war began. It has reportedly been laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shutting the global waterway which is crucial for the world's oil economy. At at the same time, President Trump's former Iran adviser Elliot Abrams tells me the war will either end with a popular uprising or within a couple of weeks when President Trump announces that all his objectives have been met, which Abrams says is the most likely scenario now. And Trump himself today told Axios the war will end, quote, soon. This is all happening as Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has still not been seen in public days after being appointed. Sources say that he was injured on the first day of the war and has a fractured foot and minor injuries. For more on the system driving Iran's war strategy, I'm joined by the Iranian political analyst Mostafa Dhanushkar and Maryam Alemzadeh, associate professor in History and politics of Iran at Oxford University and an expert on Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Welcome to both of you. I want to ask you first, Ms. Alemzadeh. Professor, because we just heard from Lebanon's Minister of Justice and he basically told me that he believes Iran will fight to the last Lebanese for their own interests. And I asked him whether the Revolutionary Guard had been significantly, you know, diminished. And he said no. So what do you think the strength right now of the IRGC is?

[Maryam Alemzadeh]

Hello and thank you for having me. I almost fully agree. The strength of the Revolutionary Guards has not diminished significantly because this organization was established and grew in a way that was not reliant on its top leadership. The decapitation both of Ayatollah Khamenei and the top military commanders has little effect, if any, on the very vast network, the capillary, the penetrated network of branches and stations and bases that the IRGC and Basij together with other state sponsored organizations have. They have been built and trained to act spontaneously, independently. They are good at operating ad hoc, thriving in chaos. And the history of the IRGC actually approves that. And I also agree with the Justice Minister that Iran, the Islamic Republic, does not care about the Lebanese cause, the Palestinian cause. It is all a tactic for self preservation.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Well, that's very interesting. So to you, Mustafa Adanishkar, then, do you think that the aims that you were hoping for and certainly many in the diaspora and elsewhere inside Iran, that this action, which many have celebrated inside Iran will lead to an uprising? I ask that because, as you know, I asked Elliot Abrams, I said, how is this going to end? He said, either with an uprising or with Trump declaring, you know, he's won and ending the war. What are you thinking right now?

[Audie Cornish]

Hello and thanks for having me. I think two lines in parallel are weakening the Iranian regime now. First is the air campaign that is handled by US and Israel in parallel. People and protesters in the street, they can uprise at any moment. I disagree that IRGC is not weakening now. They are weakening. And we can see the indicators. You can see they cannot defend the air. And the US and Israel army can target wherever they want, whatever they want inside Iran. They targeted Iranian supreme leader easily easier than any other thing. So I think this campaign, this air campaign, besides the people, the protesters and the people, they are in anger from their country, from the massacre that happened in January 8th and 9th. So they will, at some moment they can take over the government. This can lead to the collapse in the political system, political structure and lead to people to feel that they are secure. Then they can take the protest to the street one more time. One more time. So there is, I think there is a big chance for that. I'm not totally sure and there is not certainty in politics, as you know. But this air campaign make the repressive apparatus of Iranian regime, Islamic Republic State weaker than any.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Yes, well, I'm sure that is true, Maryam. Right. I mean this definitely been weakened. It's been slammed from the most powerful militaries in the world. And in any event, Iran was never going to be able to win against a joint Israel American campaign. But how do you think, for instance, the naming of Mujtab Al Khamenei is going to affect the prosecution of this war? And they're still being quite defiant. Well, very defiant. I mean people, you know, leaders there are saying, no, we're not going to negotiate and we're going to cause Iran a lot of rather the west and the world a lot of economic pain.

[Maryam Alemzadeh]

No, I totally agree that I did not mean to undermine the effectiveness of the air campaign. Yes, the air defense system might be down. A lot of Iran's classic, as in like regular army, naval force and some of the IRGC boats might be down. But in my view that's never been the strength of the irgc. The strength of the IRGC has been its penetration into the country, into its farthest and deepest corners. And that is to a large extent still intact. That's why I'm not too optimistic that even if this war leads to a point of state collapse and there's like some like at these temporary ceasefire where bombs are not falling and people can come out of survival mode and take on the streets again, which in my opinion has also, like the likelihood of it has also been reduced by the war. Even if that happens, it's not going to be an easy takeover for the protesters who I believe are the majority of the population now because the weapons are still in the hands of the IRGC and Basij and they do not need the more advanced equipment that has been destroyed to some extent in order to repress a popular uprising. And Mosheba Khamenei's appointment, I think it's this first signals a hardliner pose for the continuation of the war. But I think when and if this war ends, it's not necessarily a signifier of hardliner policy. He is basically the IRGC's person. He obeys the IRGC, not the other way around. So if the IRGC decides to take a more pragmatic, more conciliatory route, if, if it does, I think Mojtab Khamenei will be no hurdle to that.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Wow, that's interesting. Professor Dhanishgar, I hear what you're saying. Are you concerned that for instance, the head of the national police and some IRGC commanders have gone on state media and essentially over these last, you know, certain two weeks of war have told people to stay at home, have indicated that they would be traitors betraying their country at the behest of what they call enemy, you know, armies and say that the, the shoot to kill orders are already in place. What does that say to you about the likelihood of people being able to come out?

[Audie Cornish]

Yes, this is the clear and this is the significant indicator that they have a concern about the chance and the room that is open now and the likelihood that people appear again at the street and the uprising happen again. This is very strong indicator about their concern. And the reality is hundreds of repressive apparatus, stations and institutions are targeted for past 12 days of the war. So it is not, it is a big deal for them. They are scared. They get the situation get out of control at any moment. So that's why they are threatening people and ask them, or I would say begging them to stay at home and they use whatever they have in their hand what remain in their hand. Okay, let me stop people to come to the street and respond to call for the street.

[Christiana Amanpour]

So let me play from what you're saying. Let me play what the IRGC commander said. He's also, well, former irgc, he's a politician. Let me play what he said to exactly what you're saying there

[Walter Isaacson]

today.

[Audie Cornish]

Anyone on Iranian soil who lets a sound out of their throat that displays enmity toward the regime in order to shoot them has already been issued.

[Christiana Amanpour]

So to your point. But what also then about the hope certainly amongst a lot of diaspora, a lot of, I think, I think also Israel, the United States maybe hoped that weakening the IRGC and weakening the system would lead to defections and cause, you know, sort of a toppling from within. We haven't seen that. Professor Dhanushkar, what do you anticipate?

[Audie Cornish]

There are some signs for that. Listen to what you've just played. He said we gave an order to the, to the forces to shoot the protester by themselves without they need any extra order. There is signs that the communication in the chain of command is disconnected, it's interrupted by this air campaign and we have a lot of lust in the chain of command of irgc. So at the moment of confrontation in the street between the people, protesters and IRGC, they are not as united as before. At 8 and 9th of January so this is the hope. Plus now we have an alternative that people call his name, chanting for him, Prince Reza Pahlavi. So this increased the chance and the footage that you just played in other part of that he says he start to curse Reza Pahlavi and say bad words to him. So they think that the most important threat to the regime now is protester in the street air campaign that is weakening the irgc. On top of that, the alternative, the active alternative that people can get to the consensus around him. So this is the major threat that threatened the existence of the regime and can lead to the collapse at any moment.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Okay, so that's a point of view that many have had. Right. Describe for me what the IRGC is, Mariam. It's not just an army. It's got its tentacles in every which way. Right. And even if the theocracy was toppled, it's tell me what you see if there is a collapse and what, how strong they are in terms of other parts of controlling the system in Iran.

[Vivian Salama]

Sure.

[Maryam Alemzadeh]

The IRGC started as a defender of the revolution, as vague and transparent a concept as it is. And it's significant because it was in rivalry basically with the regular army and the police that existed, like the pre revolutionary army and the police that survived the revolution. So it was with the excuse of defending the revolution itself, not the country, not domestic security and order, but the revolution. So this vagueness, this informality around both the organization and its ideology has been a defining factor of the IRGC from day one. It translated organizationally into an institution that is very decentralized, very prone to direct action. It was actually prone to direct. This tendency was institutionalized within it through the multiple rounds of chaos that it grew out of the early.

[Christiana Amanpour]

But it's an economic force, it's a real estate force, it's very, very corrupt as well.

[Maryam Alemzadeh]

Right, yes, there's that too. But what I wanted to say is that it is trained in thriving in chaos. And the current war is actually another opportunity for it to become more relevant, to become the force that can handle this chaotic situation that a classic army would not be able to stand, let alone. Yes, their hands in, their heavy hand in economy, in politics, in any and every state office and like public office, civil office that Iran has. And I don't think actually because they are used to not working with a clear chain of command, they are used to like what military sociologists call small group cohesion. Their cohesion comes from their small groups. They know each other, they have a very organic relationship with each other. So I don't think that the current hits that they have taken for sure has weakened them in that regard.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Okay, let me ask you, Professor Dhanushkar, in our final minute, are you concerned with what we're hearing from insiders and maybe even some in the diaspora, that the attacks on Iranian civilians, whether it's accidental or not, the attack on the depot with, you know, the toxic rain and oil falling down, the damage to really important cultural heritage is beginning to frighten them and question whether this actually is a war against just the regime or is it against all Iran and all Iranians? Are you concerned about that shift in opinion in 30 seconds?

[Audie Cornish]

I think if the war takes longer than it should be, yes. But at this moment, the answer simply is no. Because the people put the blame on the government on irgc, because their policy on eliminating Israel and anti American Americanism put the country and brought this war to our country. So they are blaming the Islamic Republic regime at this moment. But if the war takes longer than it should, yes, this shift may happen, but I don't think it will take that long.

[Christiana Amanpour]

Okay. Well, I appreciate you being with us, Professor Dhanish Ghar Maryam as well. Thank you very much. Alamzadeh. Thank you. And you're writing a book on the irgc? I am, yes. Yeah. Thank you both very much for joining us. And we'll be back after this short break.

[Audie Cornish]

I'm Dr. Sanjay Gupta, host of the Chasing Life podcast. And what if caregiving doesn't just take from us, but what if it gives something back as well?

[Vivian Salama]

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[Audie Cornish]

Her book is called when youn the Unexpected Magic of Caring for Others. Journalist Alyssa Strauss, the magic of caring for Others. Listen to Chasing Life Streaming now, wherever you get your podcasts.

[Christiana Amanpour]

As we discussed earlier, the prospect of real regime change in Iran soon is questionable. Yet President Trump has been touting the January capture of Venezuela's dictator, Nicolas Maduro as, quote, the perfect example of an intervention gone. Right now, he's suggesting that Cuba may be next. Vivian Salama is a staff writer at the Atlantic, and she has been reporting on the Middle east for 15 years. She gives Walter Isaacson her analysis on Trump's actions in Iran and in Latin America.

[Walter Isaacson]

Thank you. Chrishan and Vivian Salama, welcome to the show.

[Vivian Salama]

Great to be here.

[Walter Isaacson]

What is your understanding of why President Trump launched the attacks on Iran? What was the plan there?

[Vivian Salama]

I think there's been a lot of buildup. Certainly he has believed for some time that nuclear talks were basically going nowhere. He has long condemned jcpoa. He obviously pulled out of it the Iran nuclear deal. That is, he pulled out of it in his first term in office. And he has since sort of toyed with the idea of renegotiating with Iran, trying to get them in line. Their enrichment activities have grown over the past few years since the U.S. withdrew from those from the, from the JCPOA. So he was really looking for a solution of some kind, either that they would be able to force the Iranian's hand in negotiations. Particularly since last year the Trump administration launched strikes on a number of nuclear facilities in Iran. There's a debate even within the administration about how effective those strikes were, but they believed that at least it weakened their hand a little bit. Israel's also war in the region with a number of Iranian proxies, the Houthis, Hezbollah, that also played a factor into it.

[Walter Isaacson]

Well, what about the thing that Israel forced the hand?

[Vivian Salama]

Yeah, so then there is that. I mean, as far as the exact timing goes, Bibi Netanyahu has made no secret that this is a dream come true for him. He has believed for some time that regime change is absolutely imperative in Iran. President Trump himself has sort of wavered on that question. You know, if the clerical leadership of Iran were to sit at the table and make a deal with President Trump, I don't think that he would have walked away from that.

[Walter Isaacson]

Suppose that the Ayatollah sun consolidates power. What possible endgames are there at this point?

[Vivian Salama]

I think it remains to be seen exactly how this could play out, except that the Iranian leadership finds itself backed into a corner and so significantly weakened, its hand so significantly weakened that it has no choice but either to surrender and, or negotiate. And that is what the administration is certainly hoping for. They want to see that kind of a solution, especially as President Trump dangles this possibility of ground troops being needed to be able to kind of see their objectives through. Now, I want to emphasize what the objectives that they keep putting out are, whether or not that is ultimately where, where it takes the conflict or not. But they say they want to denigrate Iran's nuclear capacity. They want to take out its missiles, they want to take out its navy. And President Trump in a press conference this week saying that the Navy has pretty much been annihilated. And then lastly, target the proxies that are in the region. And so that is what they continue to emphasize is their core mission at hand. They don't like to talk about regime change, except President Trump likes to tap down stance and flirt with this idea of regime change and say, yes, at this point, I think it's time for a regime change in Iran. Obviously, he kind of, he tends to kind of flip flop on some of these issues, as do a number of people in his administration. And so that's why we have to kind of wait and see how it unfolds.

[Walter Isaacson]

You talk about the need to degrade Iran's proxies in the region. You just called them. And of course the main one is Lebanon and the Iranian proxies in Lebanon. And that seems to now be a second front in this war, or at least for Israel, which is attacking there. Tell me how this is going to play out and is the US Going to open a second front or could it in Lebanon against Iran's proxies?

[Vivian Salama]

So far, my understanding is that they are very reluctant to open a second front. They will defend Israel if need be with limited targeting, which which we've seen in recent years as well, but they're very reluctant to open a second front at this point, particularly since the war in Iran already is so grossly unpopular here in the United States, even among many in the president's base. They would rather kind of get in and out and do this as quickly as possible. Also, just because we are in a midterm election year and a lot of that hangs in the balance also because energy prices are rising and that is also really placing a lot of pressure on the Republican Party. So for those reasons, I, I think they are definitely leaning toward an in and out scenario now. Easier said than done. I'm someone who's covered the Middle east for 15 years. I know that these conflicts can spiral out of control almost overnight. This is already looking that way. Israel has sort of made it its mission to try to complete what it started a few years ago and go after remaining cells of Hezbollah that have created any kind of trouble for Israel. Now, that's their, that's their positioning of it. But of course we see civilian sites being targeted as well, which is very troubling and could also open the door for a wider conflict.

[Walter Isaacson]

And so you just said something a moment ago about it could spiral out of control. And that's what we're seeing now. Is this really spiraling out of Control. And what do you mean by that?

[Vivian Salama]

Well, you already see Iran launching attacks sort of haphazardly around the region, even beyond the region. I was reading that Azerbaijan got missiles. I mean, I don't have the list in front of me right now about all the countries that have gotten hit one way or another. Some of it, of course, was just, you know, misfires and things like that. But others were deliberate. And certainly Iran is already going after US Allies in the region, its Arab allies, targeting sites, massive numbers. I mean, in the hundreds per day, sometimes in places like the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain and Qatar in Saudi Arabia. These are countries that obviously have very close ties with the United States. Some of them host military bases, US Military bases there. And that is partially why they're being targeted. They are also no friend to Iran. They were very much on board for containing Iran's nuclear program and kind of getting it in line. But on the other hand, they did not want to get dragged into this conflict. I was talking to Arab officials, and I wrote a story before this conflict began about Arab allies declining the Trump administration's request to have them use their military bases because of that exact reason.

[Walter Isaacson]

So you don't put much stock in the idea that the Saudis helped push this attack on Iran as well.

[Vivian Salama]

I don't think that they're crying for the ayatollah. I definitely think that they like to see some limited strikes. However, all the officials I talked to believed that, that a broad conflict like the one we are seeing now was only going to create tension and destabilize the region, obviously destabilize energy markets. And that's what we're seeing, whether it's a short term or not. Unfortunately, I don't have a glass ball, but we'll find out.

[Walter Isaacson]

You had a great piece in the Atlantic about a week ago called All Eyes on Cuba, which is a great headline and a great piece because it said, okay, after Venezuela, after all this, you have a president who's kind of liking regime change. I think President Trump said, as we achieve a historic transformation in Venezuela, we're also looking forward to the great change that will be coming to Cuba. What does Trump want to achieve there?

[Vivian Salama]

Well, I'm sure I don't have to tell you, Walter, the Cuba has. Has probably haunted seven decades worth of presidents of both parties. And so finding a solution to Cuba, to the Cuba problem, and what I mean by that is, again, this perception that there's a communist regime at the doorstep of the United States, that would be a perch for countries like Russia or once upon a time, the Soviet Union and China to be able to, to spy on the United States because it would be more sympathetic to their ideologies and not the US that has haunted presidents of both parties and President Trump is no different, except that circumstances are now different because for the past two or three decades, Cuba has largely been propped up by Venezuela. Venezuelan oil, specifically. I wrote about the history of it, this alliance between Fidel Castro and Hugo Chavez, who was the predecessors to Nicolas Maduro, the one who sort of flipped Venezuela from a democracy to a more socialist nation. Cuba needed Venezuela because it had just lost the Soviet Union when the Soviet Union collapsed and it needed a benefactor to help it. And Venezuela stepped in, started shipping oil. Cuba would respond with doctors and others assisting, including intelligence sharing. All of that is gone now with Nicolas Maduro being toppled. And Nicolas Maduro definitely carried on that tradition with Cuba. Removing Nicolas Maduro and forming a blockade in the Caribbean has essentially cut off those economic lifelines to Cuba. Now, Cuba's economy was already struggling. It has been for years. Mismanagement by the government Covid all these things complicated their ability to kind of of thrive at a basic level. But that oil line that came from Venezuela was so crucial, and it's been cut off.

[Walter Isaacson]

And what does the opposition in Cuba look like?

[Vivian Salama]

The opposition in Cuba looks a lot like the opposition in Iran. Interestingly, it is disorganized, scattered, most in exile. Experts who have followed Cuba very deeply, more than me, have told me that it's virtually nonexistent at this stage. There is no clear leader. And that's the big difference between Venezuela and Cuba is that there isn't just a clear leader where they can point to and say, okay, the opposition is strong. We have a fallback if negotiations don't work. Now, of course, that didn't end up. It didn't play out that way in Venezuela. Nicolas Maduro's regime is still in power. Ironically, his vice.

[Walter Isaacson]

Did that happen in Cuba?

[Vivian Salama]

It's possible that it could happen in Cuba. Interestingly enough, we know that Secretary of State Marco Rubio is speaking with the grandson of Raul Castro, Fidel Castro's brother, who led the country for a while, but he's 94 now, so he's enjoying his retirement. Somewhere he's speaking with Raul Castro's grandson, and they are trying to see if a negotiated settlement could work, if the Cuban government would be willing to sort of of make peace with the United States. And I can tell you they're watching what's happening in the world very closely. What happened to Nicolas Maduro? I mean, I can't tell you. It struck fear into the hearts of foes and allies alike because he was virtually plucked from his bed, put on a ship and then a helicopter and sent to a New York City courtroom, a president of a sovereign nation.

[Christiana Amanpour]

And.

[Vivian Salama]

And they did so bypassing Congress. So that was an eye opener and certainly for the Cuban regime, which thinks if he could do that in Venezuela, of course, he could do that to us, too.

[Walter Isaacson]

Well, let's put this in historical perspective. A century ago, the United States used to go around doing regime changes, whether it be Latin America, Asia, and then of course, over the 20th century in Iran and many other places, those did not tend to end well. Why is this whole new spate of regime changing? Do you think there's a good chance that it could end as badly as the previous spate?

[Vivian Salama]

Walter, just last week I wrote about the 1953 attempted CIA coup or the CIA coup. It was not attempted. It was actually a successful CIA coup in Iran by Dwight Eisenhower. And what was a successful coup at the time ended up having repercussions years later, decades later, I should say, with the Iranian revolution, which was rooted in part by who the US Put in power after that coup. And so in this case, Hindsight is not 2020. I have been on television talking about this, and I've been talking to experts about this, that unfortunately, history has shown that regime change operations don't always go very well, and especially if a foreign power is dictating who should run that country. And the people have limited say in that. And so President Trump has been very careful in terms of kind of emphasizing that the people should be the ones to choose. But of course, the people in this case did not choose Delsey Rodriguez, Nicolas Maduro's vice president, and she for now is the caretaker government leader of Venezuela because she's the one who's working with the US Whether or not they hand power to the opposition groups who did legitimately win elections in Venezuela, we're not sure if that's going to happen. We keep asking the administration that. We don't get a clear answer. I think they seem to think that stability needs to come first in the country before you can have a referendum or an election where then you kind of do it all over again. But it's very unclear how this is going to play out at this stage. Obviously, it's only been a couple of months in Venezuela. We're watching things unfold in real time in Iran. So it's hard to really predict how it would go. But given what you were just saying, history has not been too kind to operations of this nature. And so we have to hold our breath and hope that this is different. But it's hard to imagine.

[Walter Isaacson]

Vivian Salama, thank you so much for joining us.

[Vivian Salama]

Thank you.

[Christiana Amanpour]

And finally, windows shattered and heritage destroyed. The U. S. Israeli war with Iran is tearing apart centuries of human history. The blast wave of a nearby Israeli airstrike has hit historic landmarks in isfahan, including the 17th century Jehel Sutton or Forty Pillars Palace. This news follows the damage to the Golistan palace in Tehran and UNESCO's warning of the risks facing Iranian cultural sites. While at the Vatican, Pope Leo issued a message of concern for humanity in his latest St. Peter's Square audience, mourning a priest who was killed in strikes in southern Lebanon and lamenting the death of children and civilians in this war. The Pope is calling for this to end and doubling down on his prayers for peace. That's it for now. Thank you for watching and goodbye from London.

[Audie Cornish]

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