The Latest on Russia's War Against Ukraine

Summary

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Amanpour Podcast Summary

Episode: The Latest on Russia's War Against Ukraine
Host: Bianna Golodryga (in for Christiane Amanpour)
Date: July 6, 2026

Episode Overview

This episode examines pivotal developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine, focusing on a deadly missile attack on Kyiv ahead of a key NATO summit. It features military analyst Michael Kofman breaking down recent battlefield shifts and air defense dilemmas, and turns to a series of on-the-ground interviews regarding Iran’s regime and the aftermath of its Supreme Leader’s funeral. The show also delivers updates on the devastating earthquakes in Venezuela and closes with an in-depth look at the latest World Cup controversies and results.

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1. Russia’s Missile Strike on Kyiv & NATO Summit Prospects

Segment Start: [00:36]

Key Points:

• Russian Attack on Kyiv:
  • Russia launched 29 ballistic missiles at Kyiv; none were intercepted, resulting in at least 21 deaths ([00:36]).
• Ukraine's Plea for Air Defenses:
  • President Zelensky appeals to NATO for missile interceptors before the NATO summit.
• Military Analysis by Michael Kofman:
  • Kofman calls this an “inflection point for Russia” ([02:23]).
  • Ukraine’s Strategic Position:
    • Ukraine is regaining more territory than it’s losing, but is exposed to Russia's expanding aerial bombardment ([03:27]).

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2. In-Depth: Michael Kofman on Warfare & Strategy

Interview Start: [03:27]

A. NATO’s Capacity and US Support

• On Alliance Capabilities:

  • “NATO does not have much in the way of stocks, but they can certainly be doing a lot more...” ([03:27])
  • US supplies mainly newly produced interceptors—but not quickly enough to counter scaled-up Russian attacks ([04:27]).

• Production and Will:

  • The shortage is due to both slow interceptor production and US reluctance to deplete its own inventories after recent conflicts, notably the Iran war ([04:27]).

B. Russian Battlefield Adaptations

• Dual Russian Forces:
  • Russia is shifting between failing ground tactics (“sending one to two soldiers at a time”) and escalating long-range bombardment ([05:54]).
  • The scale: Russia deploys 8,000 attack drones monthly, increasingly targeting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure ([05:54], [12:19]).

C. Ukraine’s Strategy & Crimea

• Making the War ‘Futile’ for Russia:
  • Ukraine stabilizes front lines, isolates Crimea creating blackouts and fuel shortages, and conducts deep strikes into Russian territory targeting infrastructure ([06:56]).
  • “Crimea now has a real energy and fuel crisis... also to gain leverage.” ([07:30])

D. Russian Military Reconstitution

• Five to Seven Year Timeline:

  • “We’re not debating the if so much as we are only debating the when.” ([08:39])
  • Even with severe equipment losses (14,000 armored vehicles, 2,100 artillery pieces), Russia refurbishes vehicles, ramps up advanced tank production, and increases manpower ([09:38]).

• Evolving Threats:

  • Russia’s growing precision strike and drone capability mean NATO “needs to update our scenarios” ([10:29]).
  • Western militaries lag in adapting to drone-saturated battlefields noted in Ukraine ([12:19]).

E. NATO’s Weaknesses & Lessons

• Defense Gaps:
  • “NATO is not well adapted yet to the air and missile defense challenge posed by these cheap forms of mass precision.” ([12:46])
  • The alliance faces urgent needs for innovation in doctrine, tactics, and technology.

F. Most Consequential NATO Decision

• Key Takeaway:
  • “The biggest decisions have to do with spending, with rearmament...” ([14:14])
  • Internal unity and practical defense planning are critical ahead of the summit.

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3. Iran: Regime Pageantry, Crackdowns & Uncertain Future

Segment Start: [17:11]

A. Funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei

• Symbolic Mass Events:

  • Tehran packed with mourners, chanting anti-American and anti-Israeli slogans ([17:43]).
  • Regime projects unity though society remains polarized, with an estimated loyal base of only around 20% ([19:24], Karim Sajapour).

• Regime Transition:

  • Delay in public funeral due to leadership fears of being targeted.
  • Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, expected as possible successor, remains absent from public view, casting doubt on his leadership ([21:34]).

• Future Leadership:

  • Iran’s long history of strongmen; power now may shift from clerical to military rule ([22:53]).
  • “It’s not clear whether Mojtaba Khamenei is going to be Iran’s most powerful figure... likely someone with a military background.” ([21:55], Karim Sajapour)

B. Economic Strife and Isolation

• Washington’s Offer:

  • US offers to unfreeze billions if Iran drops plans to charge tolls in the Strait of Hormuz; Iran hesitates ([23:57]).
  • Regime prioritizes ideology and survival over economic integration ([24:48], [26:31]).

• Guest List Signals:

  • Low-level delegations from Russia and China “tell us about Iran’s isolation” ([28:04]).
  • “Much of its neighbors fear it... China and Russia are fair weather friends.” ([28:04], Karim Sajapour)

C. Crackdown on Dissent

• Behind-the-Scenes Repression:
  • Over 6,000 arrests since the war began, including conservationists previously pardoned ([29:28]).
  • Interview with former detainee Mourad Thomas exposes regime paranoia:
    • “It’s terrifying to think that they may have to go through an ordeal like this again.” ([34:30])
  • Environment work seen as a threat, despite Iran’s grave ecological crises ([39:12]).

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4. Venezuela: Earthquake Aftermath & Human Toll

Segment Start: [41:41]

• Devastation and Anger:
  • Twin earthquakes kill over 3,000; thousands still missing after 10 days ([41:41]).
  • Survivors criticize slow and inadequate government response.
  • “The numbers keep increasing and we are still in the first phase of the operation.” ([44:04])
  • Humanitarian organizations like World Central Kitchen fill emergency support gaps ([44:11]).

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5. World Cup: Sport and Political Intrigue

Segment Start: [45:11]

A. US President’s FIFA Intervention

• Red Card Controversy:
  • US striker Folarin Balogun’s red card suspension is lifted after President Trump’s intervention, sparking outrage from Europe ([45:11], [46:56]).
  • “UEFA have accused FIFA of crossing a red line... this has stopped being about us and has started to be about football and its integrity.” ([46:56], Darren Lewis)

B. Tournament Highlights

• On-Field Drama:

  • England’s dramatic win in Mexico City hailed as a breakthrough moment ([51:17]).
  • Norway’s historic quarterfinal, powered by Erling Haaland ([52:11]).

• Notable Quotes:

  • “If we do not have the rules in football, we have nothing. That’s why this is so grave.” ([49:51], Darren Lewis)

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• “We’re not debating the if so much as we are only debating the when.”
  — Michael Kofman, on Russia’s military rebuilding ([08:39])

• “It’s a regime which is good at resistance, it’s good at repression, it’s terrible at governance.”
  — Karim Sajapour, on Iran’s focus ([26:31])

• “It’s terrifying to think they may have to go through an ordeal like this again after six and a half years already.”
  — Mourad Thomas, on arrested conservationists ([34:30])

• “If we do not have the rules in football, we have nothing.”
  — Darren Lewis, on the World Cup controversy ([49:51])

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Key Timestamps

• [00:36] – Ukraine missile attacks, NATO summit preview
• [03:27] – Michael Kofman on air defense and military strategy
• [17:11] – Iran’s regime funeral spectacle, expert analysis
• [29:28] – Iran’s crackdown on dissent, Mourad Thomas interview
• [41:41] – Venezuelan earthquake coverage
• [45:11] – World Cup news and FIFA/Trump controversy

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Tone & Style

• Analytical and urgent when discussing Ukraine and NATO
• Somber, investigative in Iran/Tehran and Venezuela segments
• Direct, lively, and critical during World Cup and sports analysis

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This summary covers all major topics, provides direct speaker insights, and highlights key moments with timestamps—an essential guide for anyone needing a substantive recap of this episode.

Transcript

[Sports Commentator]

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[Bianna Golodriga]

of $45 for three months, $90 for six months or $180 for a 12 month plan. Required $15 per month equivalent to taxes and fees. Extra initial plan term only greater than 50gb. Me slow when network is busy, see terms. Hello, everyone, and welcome to Amanpour. Here's what's coming up. Russia strikes Kyiv with ballistic missiles outgunning Ukraine's air defenses on the eve of a NATO summit. Military analyst Michael Kaufman joins me to discuss what's at stake. Plus, thousands in Tehran pay tribute to the late Ayatollah Khamenei, who will have an on the ground report and analysis from regional expert Karim Sajapour. But behind the scenes of unity, the regime's hidden crackdown, former detainee Mourad Thomas explains. Also ahead, thousands of people still feared missing in Venezuela More than 10 days after Twin deadly earthquakes. We'll have an update on the search and rescue efforts. And later in the show, sport and politics collide at the FIFA World cup after President Trump lobbied the head of FIFA to get a red card overturned. We'll bring you the very. Welcome to the program, everyone. I'm Bianna Golodriga in New York, sitting in for Christian Amanpour. A major Russian assault has lit up the skies of Kyiv and surrounding areas, killing at least 21 people and injuring many more. Ukraine's president says not a single one of the 29 ballistic missiles fired on Kyiv were shot down because Kyiv simply does not have enough interceptors to defend against Moscow's attacks. Now, ahead of tomorrow's NATO leader summit, President Zelensky has made a fresh plea for more air defense missiles. Whatever NATO allies decide will be key to Ukraine's ability to protect its skies. But it's also happening, as Russia, too, is seeing increasing losses of both territory and of troops. Michael Kaufmann is a military analyst and a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for international peace. In his latest article for Foreign affairs, he describes this moment as an inflection point for Russia which which could shape its long term military strategy. And Michael Kaufman joins me now live from Alexandria, Virginia. Michael, welcome back to the program. It's great to have you on. So let's start once again with this plea from President Zelenskyy. On the eve of this NATO summit, as we mentioned, not one of Russia's ballistic missiles was intercepted. President Zelensky is asking NATO to step in and help with missile defense. Can NATO, in your view, coming out of this summit actually give President Zelensky what he is ask asking for?

[Michael Kaufman]

I think the challenge is that NATO does not have much in the way of stocks, but they can certainly be doing a lot more when it comes to providing ballistic missile defense interceptors here. Ukraine remains heavily dependent on the United States and the issue is that while Ukraine is doing very well across much of the front, in fact, this is a second month now where Ukraine is taking back more territory likely than it's lost. The one negative trend remains the Russian bombardment campaign and the deficit of munitions for ballistic missile defenses. Ukraine is also looking for technology transfer and for help with license production. That is ultimately the solution will have to be coming up with some cheaper alternative to what are right now fairly expensive and low availability interceptors provided for US Missile defense systems.

[Bianna Golodriga]

So if this is really more dependent on whether the United States can step in as it relates to interceptors, is the issue here interceptor production or just US Will?

[Michael Kaufman]

The issue here is both interceptor production, which is being ramped up but slowly because these are very expensive and fairly slow to produce capabilities, also stock availability. And lastly, yes, US Will, especially after the vast expenditure of munitions in the Iran war, the United States has been reticent to take more interceptors out of stocks and is primarily supplying Ukraine with newly produced munitions. Unfortunately, that is not enough because Russia has increased the size of ballistic missile strikes and it is increasingly getting more out of those capabilities. So this trend continues to be negative. And as you can see in the most recent attacks, Ukraine is simply out

[Bianna Golodriga]

of munitions and it's happening, as you've also noted, that momentum has become more on Ukraine's side over the last few months in particular. And yet as it relates to these missile strikes, there does seem to be a disconnect because over the weekend the Times reported from eastern Ukraine that Russian soldiers are now infiltrating not in units, but one at a time. And that matches the analysis that you've concluded in your piece that Russia is Sending, quote, one to two soldiers at a time to infiltrate Ukrainian positions. So is this really a story about two types of Russian militaries at this point? One is their air dominance in the other is the fact that they are bleeding on the ground. I mean, how should we read into this?

[Michael Kaufman]

Sure. So there are different aspects to the war. There is the fight on the ground at the tactical level. But both sides have had extensive strategic strike campaigns. Russia starting in fall of 2022 and Ukraine's really ramping up after summer of 2024. And the more that the Russian effort flounders, right, the more that they run into problems on the battlefield, the more Moscow is going to switch to a strategic bombardment campaign. And that's why we've seen the increase in the size of strikes. Now, most of these use one way attack drones of various types. But increasingly Russia also use ballistic missiles alongside cruise missiles. If you look on average from 6,000 to over 6,000 drones being used per month, the most recent statistics has gone up to 8,000 of one way attack drones now being used on a monthly basis by Russia to strike Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. And even though strategic bombardment campaigns don't have a great track record of being decisive on the war, nonetheless, Moscow is going to focus on this because it's the one way that they can continue pressuring Ukraine.

[Bianna Golodriga]

And you also write that Kyiv's strategy of making this war futile for Russia is working. And I'd like to ask you to elaborate on that specifically as it relates to what we're seeing in Crimea where you have Russian installed authorities now declaring a state of emergency. We have blackouts, fuel reserved for the state there on shortages. The Kerch Bridge has been choked off. A real blockade happening at what has been a crown, crown jewel for Vladimir Putin. Is this the point that you were trying to make, just one example of Ukraine's strategy right now?

[Michael Kaufman]

Yeah, absolutely. There are several parts to Ukraine's strategy. The first is stabilizing the front line. And they've done a good job of that, especially since in recent months they've really gone after longer range strikes into Russian operational depth and have choked off Russian logistics. And so the Russian offensive effort has stalled for many months now. Another one is isolating Crimea and using that as a pressure point. Crimea now has a real energy and fuel crisis there under the belief that Moscow cares a lot more about Crimea than it might care about many other regions of Ukraine that's trying to occupy and essentially using that also to gain leverage. And lastly is a deep strike campaign into Russia targeting Russian Energy export infrastructure, Russian fuel refineries. Russia's undergoing a fuel crisis with long lines at the gas stations across the country, and also keynotes in the Russian defense industry to reduce the Russian production of missiles and various strike drones.

[Bianna Golodriga]

And despite all of these challenges that Russia is facing, you yourself describe them as visibly struggling. You also say they can reconstitute into a major threat in five to seven years. What do you base that timeline on?

[Michael Kaufman]

Sure, and there are active debates. I mean, NATO actually often pegs into a much shorter timeline within only a few years after the Russia Ukraine war. And the reality is that the debates on how long it will take Russia to reconstitute are really narcissism of small differences. At the end of the day, in defense planning terms, Anything less than 10 years is a rather short timeline. And what I base it on is the assumption of how long it might take Russia after this war, even though this military has been degraded, although it also has expanded and improved in other ways to regain the ability to functionally employ that force on a larger scale. Right now, Russia after the war may be able to conduct all sorts of small or limited type scenarios that might threaten NATO members. But the thing that should really concern the alliance is a large scale invasion or large scale assault on one of its member states. And for that, I think it might take a bit longer. But that said, the important point is that even though the Russian military has been degraded, it is likely to reconstitute. We're not debating the if so much as we are only debating the when.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Okay, so let's talk about the figures in terms of what's been degraded and what already is being reconstituted. So by your figures, Russia has lost 14,000 armored combat vehicles, 2,100 artillery pieces. Yet what it's rebuilt is quite striking. And we should note for our viewers, thousands of vehicles have been refurbished or newly produced. They're getting artillery from North Korea. More than 200 of its most advanced tanks are rolling out annually, and its manpower has actually gone up from 850,000 to 1.3 million. And then obviously there's the tactical drone component of this too. So after over four years of grinding war here, materially, how much has Ukraine actually degraded the Russian army?

[Michael Kaufman]

So there's unfortunately duality to the story. On the one hand, the Russian military inequality has really degraded, and the war once again revealed all the problems that the Russian armed forces have in terms of the military culture, practices, lack of professionalism. And Russia spent a lot of its best equipment and lost much of the initial force that invaded Ukraine, on the other hand, that military is also substantially expanded. They took a lot of equipment out of storage that they inherited from the Soviet Union and they kitted out this larger force. How much would they be able to retain after the war and is not yet clear because a lot depends on what happens with the Russian economy. But where the Russian military changed significantly is in their ability to conduct precision strikes. Both adapt, as we just discussed, looking at the strike campaign against Ukraine, but also the vast expansion of drone units and the use of drones as a main form of precision strikes, supporting the Russian military across the force, things that they couldn't do earlier, now better able to translate theory into practice. Now the rest of the Russian military can't capitalize on these advantages. They're not capable of conducting large scale combat operations or offensive maneuvers like they used to, and it's going to take them a year to reconstitute that ability. But the Russian military threat has changed and I think NATO and Western planners need to be mindful of that. That the Russian military that fought in 2022 is no longer there and what the Russian military looks like after this war is something we should discuss. We need to update our scenarios. And lastly, in a lot of exercise with Ukrainian troops, from which I think our forces are doing a great job learning, it's clear that Western militaries are not yet well positioned to operate in a drone stationary environment. And that's the way that the Russian military tends to use drones. And so these tactical exercises with Ukrainian troops reveal that we still have quite a bit of learning to do in order to catch up to the battlefield realities of what's been seen in this war.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Expand upon that last point that you've made because you write that Russia is launching some 6501 way drone attack drones a month and has contracted at least 1, 100,000 more this year. And you note that NATO still lacks sufficient air defenses and counter drone technologies. So what are the weaknesses that perhaps the Kremlin could see in some NATO countries even along its border?

[Michael Kaufman]

Sure. So as I suggest in the article, NATO is not well adapted yet to the air and missile defense challenge being posed buy these sort of cheap forms of mass precision. Secondarily, while NATO is heavily dependent on air superiority, air power itself still takes a while to adapt to these kind of challenges. If you look at how ground forces operate, if you look at counter drone systems, there's still a long way to go in terms of getting NATO both up on doctrine, tactics and technology based on lessons from the battlefield. Now, not everything from Ukraine is necessarily applicable to NATO. To be clear, traditional advantages still hold and how our forces operate in air power, in precision strike capabilities. But we have a ways to go to integrate both the technology and the lessons from this war. And so I think it's important to balance the conversation. On the one hand, it's very clear that Russia is not winning in Ukraine. Time is not on Russia's side. In fact, right now it's quite visibly losing. But on the other hand, not be overly dismissive, okay? Because the Russian military will reconstitute over time and it will continue to pose a threat to NATO members. And that threat is going to be different and a bit more evolved than what it was prior to 2022.

[Bianna Golodriga]

So on the eve of this NATO summit, what would you say is the single most consequential decision that NATO should be making within the next few months? And you know, what is the role of the United States here, Michael?

[Michael Kaufman]

Well, I mean, number one job of these summits is always keep the alliance together and keep the alliance on the same page in terms of strategy, especially given the various, you know, recriminations that took place over the Iran war from the United States side. But to me, the biggest decisions have to do with spending, with rearmament. And to be honest, they're the more boring, practical things that alliance has to do in defense planning, in setting requirements and figuring out what does the alliance need to do, what does it need to be able to produce, and by what point when you look at capabilities and also the forces the alliance needs to feel.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Michael Kaufman, always great to have you on. Thank you so much. Thank you for the piece. I highly recommend everyone read it. Learned a lot from it as always. Really appreciate the time.

[Michael Kaufman]

Thanks for having me on your program.

[Bianna Golodriga]

All right. Still to come tonight, hundreds of thousands of people swarm Tehran's streets for the funeral procession of Iran's SLAIN Supreme Leader. CNN's Fred Plaiken reports from the Iranian capital. And later in the program, a dramatic World cup win for England. We look at how it all unfolded in Mexico City last night against the tournament co hosts and what President Trump's controversial call to the FIFA chief about a red card means for tonight's matchup between the US And Belgium.

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[Adi Cornish]

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[Bianna Golodriga]

Turn to Iran now, where thousands gathered on the streets of Tehran for the funeral procession of the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed by a US Israeli airstrike on the first day of the war. It's part of a nearly week long funeral with Khameneyi set to be laid to rest in Mashad on Thursday. Fred Plaikin is in Tehran and he was in amongst the crowds as Khamenei's casket went by. And a reminder, CNN operates in Iran only with the permission of the government, but maintains full editorial control of its reports.

[Sports Commentator]

This is as close as we're going to get to the casket of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as well as several of his family members who were killed in that joint US Israeli airspace on February 28th. As you can see as we stand here, the atmosphere is extremely charged up. Many of the people here, and it's a big, big crowd are screaming death to America and they're vowing revenge both against the United States as well as President Donald Trump and of course against Israel as well. The government has certainly brought out people in force here. They say they expect several million people to come out on the streets and to witness this. The casket is now making its way through Tehran to then at some point be brought to other cities on ADD Iraq. It's finally resting place in Russia. CNN

[Bianna Golodriga]

well, as Fred was mentioning, Khamenei's funeral is set to continue for several more days. It's an event steeped in symbolism and pageantry, but is coming as Iran's people are deep in economic crisis and still feeling the impact of the war. Karim Sajapour is an Iranian American policy analyst and joins me now from Washington, D.C. karim, welcome back to the program. So let's just start with what we were watching transpire over the last few days in Tehran. Hundreds of thousands of people in the streets, a tightly choreographed weeklong spectacle. We saw the president, the parliament speaker, the head of the judiciary, the top IRGC generals appearing side by side in public, really for the first time since the war began. But what is this funeral say to you about the current state of the regime today?

[Karim Sajapour]

It's a very good question, Bianna. And I think those images reflect how polarized the society Iran is. So in a country of around 92 million people with around, let's say 60, 65 million adults, this is a regime which isn't popular, but it still has a loyal base of perhaps 20% of society. So that's of an adult population that's perhaps 10, 12 million people. And they are very effective at mobilizing those folks and projecting unity. It's a regime which is not good at governance as you alluded to it as 70% inflation, triple digit inflation on foodstuffs. But what is prioritized over the years is resistance against America, repression of its own people. And it's very effective at conducting these mass grieving ceremonies for its leaders.

[Bianna Golodriga]

It's highly unusual, as you know, for, in Islam for a funeral to take place months after a death. Talk about the timing. Now we're about halfway through this MOU and we have seen more days of ceasefire now than we've seen of actual kinetic war.

[Karim Sajapour]

So the regime initially couldn't conduct a public ceremony for Ayatollah Khamenei, given that so many of its leaders had bull's eyes on their backs. Israelithe Israeli government had sought to assassinate Iran's top officials. And so for months they weren't able to grieve. And what we saw, we've seen over the last couple of days is the is for the first time, a lot of the regime's public officials, people like Ahmad Vahedi, the Revolutionary Guard commander, are being seen in public. Former President Mahmoud Ahmadjad. I thought what's notable beyond is we still haven't seen the successor to ayatollah Khamenei. His 56 year old son, Mojsabah Khamenei. It was thought that perhaps he would make an appearance, but it raises even more questions about the state of his physical and mental health.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Right. He skipped his father's funeral, he skipped his wife's memorial. He hasn't shown his face. We haven't heard his actual voice in four months. You spent years studying his father and the power that he wielded. Can a supreme leader that nobody sees actually rule a country of 91 million, especially today?

[Karim Sajapour]

You know, that's doubtful, Biana, because Ayatollah Khamenei, it took himhe'd ruled for 37 years. By the time of his killing, he was the longest serving autocrat in the world. And that process of him becoming powerful, it was a power which had been accumulated over many decades. His son inherits a system which is, you know, obviously deeply unpopular. And it's a regime which has gradually transformed from a clerical dictatorship, one ruled by the clergy, to a military dictatorship, one ruled by the Revolutionary Guard. So it's not clear whether Mojitab Al Khamenei in the coming months or years is going to be Iran's most powerful figure. I expect that the person who will emerge as Iran's next strongman is not likely to be a cleric wearing a turban. It's more likely to be someone with a military background.

[Bianna Golodriga]

And is that one person or is this a group of leaders? Because I guess this leads to the question of whether a one man rule over Iran is officially over. Or was this the direction that the country was headed in even before the war?

[Karim Sajapour]

You know, in Iran over the last century, the country has effectively been ruled by four strongmen. In the early part of the 20th century, you had Reza Shah, he was succeeded by his son Mohammad Reza Shah. Then you had the 1979 revolution led by Ayatollah Khomeini and then Ayatollah Khamenei. So there's few countries of that size like Iran that have been ruled by so few people. So certainly at the moment, there appears to be a power vacuum. People are still jockeying for power. But I think what's likely to happen, and it couldthis process could take years, that we will see the return of a strongman, perhaps similar to what we've seen in post Soviet Russia.

[Bianna Golodriga]

And what these leaders will have to govern in a society dealing with inflation that's raging, economy, desperate on hard currency, we Talk about the unemployment rate in that country. Washington has offered to unfreeze billions in Iranian funds if Iran drops its demands to charge tolls on the Strait of Hormuz. It's hoping to collect some $40 billion a year in fees. The United States is saying, you drop that, ask and you'll get billions more in unfrozen assets that are yours. And perhaps even eventually you'll be able to maintain economic relations with more of the outside world. We're 30 days into the 60 day MOU. Iran has yet to agree to that. Why?

[Karim Sajapour]

So what the Trump administration has sought to do, Bian, is to present two very distinct paths to Iran. The first path is one of global economic integration. Iran would be reintegrated into the global economy and political system. They've talked about hundreds of billions of dollars in assets being invested in Iran. Iran would be sanctions free. At the same time, they presented an alternative path, which is, if you want to continue to prioritize revolutionary ideology, death to America, death to Israel. That's only going to bring you continued sanctions and hardship and isolation. And the reality is that for a revolutionary regime like Iran, the economic well being of its population has never been its priority. Its top priority is always its own survival. And I think this regime is likely going to double down on revolutionary ideology because they believe that if they were to open up to the outside world, to open up to the forces of international capitalism and civil society, that would likely loosen their grip on power rather than entrench them.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Is there a risk, though, that they may be overplaying their hand? And I ask this because clearly their one and biggest leverage point was control over the Strait of Hormuz. Vice President Vance said sort of the quiet part out loud when he said the US signed this MoU in part to let the world refill some of their fuel stocks. We've seen now oil prices even lower than they were before the war. Gulf producers are pumping again. Is time now. Not on Iran's side?

[Karim Sajapour]

Well, I think to your point, they will absolutely overplay their hand right now. I think that Iranian officials are experiencing what I call a sugar high. They are very confident, given that they were able to survive. That was their only priority, which was to survive. They feel that they've done that and then some. They're likely not going to easily relinquish their control over the Straits of Hormuz. And I'm also skeptical that they're going to offer meaningful compromises on the nuclear file. But as I said earlier, this is a regime which is good at resistance, it's good at repression, it's terrible at governance. And for that reason, few countries in the world have experienced more popular uprisings over the last two decades than Iran. So I expect that whatever happens, whenever the dust settles, it's going to be a regime which remains deeply unpopular at home.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Hmm, interesting. Karim, if we could just end where we began. And that is some insights that we can glean from this funeral. More than 100 countries sent representatives. Pakistan sent its prime minister and its army chief. But Iran's two great patrons sent stand inside. Putin sent Medvedev. Xi Jinping sent a parliamentary vice chair. As for Gulf neighbor, Saudi sent a deputy minister. Qatar was led by a parliament speaker. Uae, Kuwait, Bahrain, they didn't send anyone. What does that guest list tell us about where Iran stands in the world and in the region right now?

[Karim Sajapour]

It's a great question, Bianna. And the reality is this is one of the most isolated, friendless regimes on earth. Much of itsmost of its neighbors fear it. The countries who areits from their vantage point, their strategic allies, countries like China and Russia are fair weather friends. Even if the country were to open up to be removed from sanctions, very few countries want to invest in Iran. And so Henry Kissinger put this many years ago that Iran has to decide whether it's a nation or a revolutionary cause. I think this regime has continued to decide to be a revolutionary cause and for that reason I think it's going to remain a largely isolated nation internationally and a largely unpopular regime at home.

[Bianna Golodriga]

And of course it is for those citizens at home who are the biggest losers. Given that we are at this point right now, we'll remember the tens of thousands who lost their lives at the beginning of this year fighting for their own dignity, freer economy and domestic policy. The President said the war started because of that and yet help never really came for those people. Karim Sadjpur will continue to cover all those fronts. Thank you for joining us.

[Karim Sajapour]

Thank you, Biana.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Well, as the Iranian regime is focused on projecting unity, a serious crackdown is taking place behind the scenes. More than 6,000 people have been arrested since the war began, according to Amnesty International and some of them have been executed. Last week, two well known animal conservationists were detained with no information on their charges. Kumain Jokar and Sepideh Kashani are a married couple who previously spent in six years in Tehran's notorious Evan prison. In 2018 after the regime accused them of espionage over their use of wildlife camera traps. They were later pardoned. Imprisoned alongside them was Mourad Thabas, a fellow environmentalist who was detained for more than five years. He's written about his own experience in his upcoming memoir, Green Parrots, A Memoir of Survival in Iran's Evan Prison. And he joins me now from Weston, Connecticut. Mourad, welcome to the program. Thank you so much for taking the time. Let me just ask you, when you heard that your two friends had been arrested once again, what was your first reaction?

[Mourad Thomas]

My first reaction was really shock as to why they had chosen to reopen a case that had created so much internal negative press and media for the IRGC itself. So it was quite shocking, surprising, and very emotional because it obviously took me back to that time when I was arrested and this whole Saga began in 2018. And you know, we've, or at least I and I know many others have been trying to find out why they've been taken into custody, where they're in custody. And we're unable at this moment to really know anything other than one phone call they were allowed to make to say they were okay. At this juncture, we don't know anything

[Bianna Golodriga]

that is so frightening. And as you noted, you spent years alongside them in Evan Prison. So if you could just take a moment to tell our viewers a little bit more about who they are, what they were working on at the time that they were detained and accused of espionage.

[Mourad Thomas]

Brianna, at the time, back in 2018, I was, I was, I had been a co founder of a foundation called the Persian Wildlife Heritage foundation, along with a friend and close associate of mine who actually died in custody at the time, Dr. Kovus seyed Emma. And we were obviously wrongfully detained. A case was fabricated and all of us were imprisoned, a few of us, myself and human, two of us and another two were actually accused of corruption on earth, which carries a death sentence. And that was really not lifted

[Karim Sajapour]

in

[Mourad Thomas]

our trial until the very last minutes of my trial at least. And this kind of psychological torture is very, very common. And what goes on is even if you're unjustly arrested, unjustly imprisoned and convicted, this, you know, it's a case that then stays with you. It's not something that goes away. They can always come back and reopen a file on someone as if you were a criminal and had previously done something wrong. And in our case, our case was something that was heavily contested by the government of President Rouhani at the time, including the Ministry of Intelligence. And it's just amazing that they are now reopening cases like this. And we just don't Know what they're being subjected to. I know what I went through included physical torture, psychological torture, withholding medical care, you know, everything you can imagine. So it's terrifying to think that they may have to go through an ordeal like this again after being there for six and a half years already.

[Bianna Golodriga]

And a reminder. The authorities claimed wildlife camera traps used to monitor endangered cheetahs were somehow being used as tools of espionage.

[Mourad Thomas]

The.

[Bianna Golodriga]

That just reads government paranoia and Stalinesque type of policies that we only read about now. But these are your friends. This is the Modern Age, 2026. We're talking about this taking place eight years ago. Just tell us a little bit more about who Human and Sepodei are. Their characters, their backgrounds.

[Mourad Thomas]

Yeah, yeah. Human is really an exceptional person. He is probably the foremost expert on big, big cats in Iran. He is an extremely knowledgeable conservation scientist. His wife as well. We work together for a period of over 10 years. Human had a hand, a very large hand in the emblem of the Asiatic Cheetah being placed on Iran's national football team's jerseys. So it's extremely ironic that, you know, right within this period of the World cup being played under Iran's national team having this symbol on their shirt, the person who was probably most responsible for getting there has been arrested. I can't say enough positive things about Human. I mean, you know, he was a very, very close friend, colleague.

[Darren Lewis]

He.

[Josan Tander]

He.

[Mourad Thomas]

He actually as. As well as being part of our foundation, he also ran the conservation of the Asiatic Cheetah Program for the United Nations Development Program together with Iran's Department of Environment. So, I mean, his background, he's known in the international community as a conservation scientist. And literally, both he and his wife, Sepi, they have devoted their lives to this cause. They have never done anything other than conservation. So this whole thing, I mean, was somewhat a fantasy to start with. And obviously the IRGC never backed down from their position, although there was never any evidence. And it was actually countered by the Ministry of Intelligence, who came out publicly and said, you know, these guys haven't done anything.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Yeah. And as you said, they had been pardoned. They had been pardoned. And then now they've been taken back. Yes, and now they've been taken back into custody, and they're now in jail alongside Sepeda's sister, who I understand is suffering from multiple sclerosis. What is the message that you think authorities are trying to send to society right now by doing this?

[Mourad Thomas]

You know, Brianna, it's an enigma. I don't know what kind of A message they are trying to sen

[Darren Lewis]

Human

[Mourad Thomas]

and sepida are people who are very, very well known in a, in society, in Iran. And there is always a tremendous amount of sympathy towards what they've been through already. So what there is to gain other than just, you know, put more fear in people's minds, I just don't, I can't fathom what upside there is for them for doing this. I just think it's creating this sense of fear. If anyone puts their foot the wrong way, they'll be taken in, they'll be questioned. Anything could happen to them. I think that's the bigger message they're trying to give.

[Bianna Golodriga]

And they're not just experts in some sort of niche field. Iran is facing of the worst environmental crises in its modern history. We reported on this water shortages, collapsing ecosystems due to just government mismanagement for years now. How important was the work they were doing for everyday Iranians?

[Mourad Thomas]

It was very important because what was being done was raising awareness. And raising awareness, as you know, is really the beginning of the conservation process. When people are knowledgeable, knowing that their actions are causing detriment to the environment they're living in. Once they're aware, it's the first step. And then you can move on from there into actually taking action with support and getting or convincing people within the government to put some, you know, personnel budget, etcetera, behind trying to save what's left of a very fragile landscape. So many different issues to confront there and very little budget ever allocated towards the environment. Water, you know, water has just been used as if it's, I don't know, you know, you're going to get a rainfall every day. But Iran is a dry, arid landscape. Water is scarce and has to be used judiciously.

[Bianna Golodriga]

And this indiscriminate crackdown continues. Amnesty International says more than 6,000 people have been detained since the war with Israel and the United States started in February. Mourad Tabas, thank you for taking the time to talk about at least two of those who have been wrongly detained. You have been their voice and we really appreciate your time.

[Mourad Thomas]

Thank you.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Coming up, criticism of the Venezuelan government grows as hope fades for the thousands of people feared to be missing amid the earthquake rubble. CNN's Stefano Pozabak reports After the break,

[Commercial Announcer]

Craig Ferguson is going coast to coast to unpack what it really means to be an American today.

[Josan Tander]

What could possibly go wrong?

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CRAIG ferguson, American on purpose. New episodes now streaming on the CNN app. Go to CNN.com watch to subscribe or log in with your TV provider.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Now to Venezuela, where thousands of people are feared to still be missing nearly two weeks after a devastating double earthquake. With at least 3,000 lives lost, it's one of Latin America's deadliest ever disasters. The country's acting president, Delsu Rodriguez honored foreign rescue teams with the Heroes of Venezuela medal over the weekend. But anger is growing as thousands of families wait for answers, accusing the government of failing to adequately respond to the crisis. CNN Stefano Pozoban has more from Caracas.

[Josan Tander]

Josan Tander has not seen her son in 10 days. They were separated in the twin quakes that shook Venezuela on June 24, but her nine year old Xavier was trapped under the rubble. Four days later, she saw a video of a child being rescued at night. She believes it was her son, but in the chaos that followed, she hasn't been able to find him. She's not going to rest. But from here, there is little she can do. This used to be a golf course. La Guayra was a tourist hotspot by the Caribbean Sea. And so here is where tourists will come and play golf and relax. Now, of course, it's a tent city for hundreds of displaced, many of whom actually used to live there in those blocks. And every day they wake up and they see their homes and flats broken down by the brutality of the earthquakes. Sheyna Ceballos is also looking for a loved one. She's lost hope of finding her mother alive, but will not leave the golf course until she recovers her remains.

[Bianna Golodriga]

If I had the money, I'd dig her out, but I have none.

[Josan Tander]

This is what's left of Shia's home. An entire life shattered in an instant. Now, like her, thousands of Venezuelans are only beginning to grasp the magnitude of this catastrophe. Before this tragedy, Venezuela was already in a deep humanitarian crisis, facing chronic shortages of food and medicines. War Center Kitchen has been operating here since 2019. In response to the earthquake, they have stepped up with three meals for survivors and volunteers. Can you describe a moment that Venezuela is right now when it's been 10 days since the earthquake?

[Sports Commentator]

The numbers keep increasing and we are

[Bianna Golodriga]

still in the first phase of the operation.

[Sports Commentator]

I would say this is still the emergency phase and our teams are still

[Bianna Golodriga]

finding the exact numbers so we can get the amount of meals needed to cover all the needs.

[Josan Tander]

Survivors and relatives of the victims have criticized the government response as inadequate and delayed. Many point to the armed forces who they say showed up too late or didn't do enough.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Our officials were deployed immediately. You can count the hours between the quakes and when we signed the emergency decree. There were 4,000 officials out in the first 24 hours, 10,000 officials the following day.

[Josan Tander]

The government also laying out credit agreements with the International Monetary Fund and plans to begin the reconstruction. But at the golf course in La Guayra, the present is too dark to look ahead

[Adi Cornish]

now.

[Bianna Golodriga]

I just want to find her remains to think about the future makes no sense.

[Josan Tander]

Stefano Pozebon, cnn, La Guayra, Venezuela.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Coming up next, the World cup has taken some more extraordinary twists with history being made on and off the pitch. The high altitude and Mexico's strong record on home soil were no match for the England team who pulled off a dramatic victory over the co host at the same stadium where Diego Maradona's hand of God goal helped eliminate the three lions four decades ago. And for the first time ever, Norway have reached the quarterfinals after two goals by Erling Haaland, sending five time champions Brazil crashing out of the tournament. And of course, amid all of it, an extraordinary move from FIFA which suspended US Striker Folairan Balogun's one game ban for a red card after intervention from President Donald Trump, a decision that has rocked the football world. For more on all of this, let's bring in CNN senior sports analyst Darren Lewis. Darren, welcome to the show. I thought this would be a lighter subject matter and in a way it is. This has been an incredible World cup thus far, but this was not the conversation I was expecting to have today. I thought we'd be talking about that game in which we will that England won last night, previewing tonight's game between the US And Belgium. In just an hour's time, we're going to see Portugal and Spain and let's not forget Cape Verde and their incredible Cinderella story. But news happened and President Trump got in the mix here. So I do want to get your, your take on how this has impacted European football's reaction. Specifically, Belgium's foreign minister, who was a former referee himself, says that a phone call, if a phone call explains this, it undermines, quote, the most basic rules of the sport. How is this being received in London, Brussels and across the continent?

[Darren Lewis]

Well, it's been horrendous. Thanks for having me on, Bianca. It's been horrendous. And I just want to, if I may, for our viewers who may not be abreast of this route, I'd just like to just recap where we are so far because it started off with Balogan sent off for a tackle on a Bosnia player, Tariq Muharomovich, and it caused his ankle to buckle. Now, Balogan committed a foul that contravened Law 12 of Football's Laws, which penalizes players for endangering the safety of an opponent. Now, Bianca, just for context, there have been 13 players sent off at this World Cup. FIFA's decision means that while the other 12 have all served a suspension of at least one World cup game, their next game that their country's taken part in the Logan will not. He will play. And that has caused, as you say, anger from around Europe. UEFA have accused FIFA of crossing a red line. The Belgian FA have said, look, this has stopped being about us and has started to be about football and its integrity and defending the interests and the transparency of the game. And I've got to tell you, in the last few minutes, Johnny Infantino himself has posted to social media and has said, look, I've read and I've seen the reports that I've spoken to the president. I do that on a regular basis, but these decisions are taken by an independent committee. Now, that may well be the case, but we've heard from the Oval Office and we've seen before situations where Cristiano Ronaldo was sent off after the last qualifier for Portugal. He should have missed his first game of this World cup for Portugal. Instead, he played, and it is said the Oval Office was involved in that decision as well. So there are more questions and answers around this one, Bianca, and I think it's going to run and run, so

[Bianna Golodriga]

I'm just going to be a little biased here, but I think from my perspective, it comes from an objective place. When I was watching this game, it did seem a bit too much. They went too far with the red card. A foul, yes, but it didn't seem as if it was intentional at all. And then, of course, across the Internet, you see the same image of the same foul being committed to by Messi and no calls at all. But we've sort of. We've gone past that moment because the US Men's team sort of accepted that and they played one man down for the rest of that game. We were expecting for Baligun to not be playing tonight. The president seems to be saying that he did the US team a solid by doing the right thing. Do you think ultimately, though, that this has helped the US team?

[Darren Lewis]

I think you're right. Listen, I think the language in this whole situation is a huge part of the problem. Doing a solid. Thanks to FIFA, thanks to Johnny. The. The personal, informal nature of this. When this should be procedure, the rules should be sacrosanct. And intention, and this is quite key, intention is not a part of the rules. If you break the rules, nobody can read your mind. Nobody can decide if you meant to do it or you hadn't. But the facts are, and England were very much victims of that. When Harry Kane committed a foul inside his own penalty box on in the early hours of Monday morning, it was an involuntary action, but it contravened the rules. And if we do not have the rules in football, we have nothing. And that's why this is so grave, because it's a step taken by the world football governing body.

[Bianna Golodriga]

I do want to end on actual football play. And what we saw yesterday in England and this was really a team that, though on paper are better, stronger than the Mexican team they were playing at home. Obviously, the Azteca has a long history as well. It was only Mexico's third competitive loss at that stadium. How significant, how significant was England's performance in shaping that team as a genuine tournament contender?

[Darren Lewis]

Now, Bianca, it was huge. I mean, I want to stay professional here, but obviously, as an Englishman, you defended your case. I've got to try to defend mine. The players were heroic last night against Mexico. They did so well, they fought so hard. All that talk about altitude, but their attitude was spot on, if I'm honest. I look at the Spanish, the French and the Argentines and I say that they have better balance throughout their side. They work as a team. And we have yet to do that last night, the first time, but it showed a lot of promise. And there is still a lot of football to be played in this World cup. So maybe, just maybe, we might defy the odds.

[Bianna Golodriga]

Yeah. Harry Kane did not lose his. Did. Did not lose his skills at all. Maybe his voice, but nothing else. And also Norway, that was quite a game, too. You want to wrap it up in 20 seconds, Darren?

[Darren Lewis]

All I'll say is Erling Harland continuing his bid to become a global sporting superstar. YouTube Next, maybe even CNN, who knows? World Sport might be the destination for a chat with him. But he has been absolutely outstanding and I don't think it's going to be easy for England this weekend at all.

[Bianna Golodriga]

I love watching him play and, man, is he fast. And by the way, just seeing all these players then react to their families sitting in the stands too, just reminds you that they're human beings as well. So this has been a delight to watch thus far. Darren Lewis, thank you so much for your analysis.

[Darren Lewis]

It's been a delight to be on. Thank you, Bianca.

[Bianna Golodriga]

And go Team USA tonight. If I can all right, that is it for now. If you ever miss our show, you can find the latest episode shortly after it airs on our podcast. And remember, you can always catch us online, on our website and all over social media. Thanks for watching and goodbye. From New York,

[Michael Kaufman]

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[Adi Cornish]

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[Bianna Golodriga]

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