What is Trump's End Game for Iran?

Summary

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Amanpour Podcast Summary

Episode: What is Trump’s End Game for Iran?
Date: March 14, 2026
Host: Christiane Amanpour

Overview

This episode delves into the intensifying US-Israel war on Iran, now entering its third week. Christiane Amanpour investigates the evolving military strategies, the ambiguous US exit strategy, regional ramifications (especially in Lebanon), and the resilience of Iran’s regime. She includes perspectives from US officials, Lebanese leadership, Iranian political analysts, and showcases stories of Iranian filmmakers amid the chaos.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. What is the End Game for the US in Iran?

(00:07–10:15)

• Current Situation:
  • Iran has been struck hard but remains defiant, closing the Strait of Hormuz and causing global oil prices to soar.
  • The new Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, vows revenge and closure of key shipping lanes.
  • Despite significant blows to its military infrastructure, there is no sign of imminent regime collapse.
• Confused Messaging from the White House:
  • President Trump’s administration delivers mixed signals regarding victory and exit timelines.
  • Israel advocates for total regime change, marked by strikes deep inside Tehran.

2. Interview with Elliott Abrams (Former Trump Iran Envoy)

(02:20–10:15)

• US Objectives and Possible Exit Paths:
  • Two envisioned outcomes: regime collapse via uprising or declaring military objectives met and calling off the campaign.
    • “Either there is some kind of uprising against the regime, or in probably a week or two, the president will call it off.” (Elliott Abrams, 03:45)
  • Abrams leans towards Trump unilaterally ending operations absent regime change.
• Longer-Term Thinking:
  • Abrams urges a focus on incapacitating Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure so the issue doesn’t recur during Trump’s term.
    • “You want to be in a position to say, I have taken these facilities out ... and you won’t have to do this again while you’re president.” (Elliott Abrams, 04:50)
• Dilemma of Iranian Democracy:
  • Abrams is optimistic about Venezuela’s democratic transition but less so about Iran, citing lack of rapid moves toward democracy. He expects any Iranian regime collapse to credit 2026’s war damages.
    • “The critical thing is what happens now over the next months and years in Iran and when does the regime fall?” (Elliott Abrams, 08:16)
• Possible Next Target: Cuba:
  • Abrams suggests Cuba could be targeted next, but acknowledges barriers due to opaque leadership.

3. Regional Fallout: Lebanon and Hezbollah

(12:31–19:01)

• Humanitarian Crisis:
  • Violence in Lebanon has displaced nearly a million people; civilian casualties are rapidly mounting.
  • Lebanese state is, for the first time, openly confronting Hezbollah for its unilateral decision to attack Israel and draw Israeli retaliation.
    • “Our position is that ... the monopoly of the weapons ... must be given only to the state. ... Hezbollah did not cooperate ... giving pretexts for Israel to strike on Lebanon.” (Adel Nasser, Lebanese Justice Minister, 15:07)
• Risks for Lebanese Officials:
  • Minister Nasser acknowledges personal risk for opposing Hezbollah, likening situation to Rafiq Hariri’s assassination, but stands firm.
    • “Today what Hezbollah is doing is in full breach of the law, in full breach of the commitments of the government … dragging the full country into regional conflicts.” (Adel Nasser, 17:34)
• Hezbollah’s Actions:
  • Hezbollah’s participation in a joint offensive with Iran has intensified Israeli attacks and public anger towards the group.

4. Iran’s Use of Cluster Munitions Against Israel

(19:58–23:26)

• Reporter Dispatch from Israel:
  • Iran escalates attacks by using cluster munitions on Israeli cities, circumventing some of Israel's air defenses, causing casualties and destruction in civilian areas.
    • “Iran is increasingly packing the heads of its ballistic missiles with dozens of [cluster munitions] ... aiming to pierce Israel’s sophisticated air defenses.” (Jeremy Dimon, 20:21)
  • Cluster attacks are costly for Israel to intercept and are a violation of international law due to their indiscriminate nature.

5. Resilience of the Iranian Regime & Prospects for Uprising

(24:46–31:23)

• Iranian Experts:
  • The Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) remain structurally resilient despite decapitation of leadership.
    • “The decapitation ... has little effect, if any, on the very vast ... network ... the IRGC and Basij together ... have.” (Maryam Alemzadeh, 25:30)
• Potential for Regime Collapse:
  • Some in the diaspora and opposition hope the aerial campaign and public anger will trigger an uprising.
    • “People and protesters ... can uprise at any moment. ... I think this campaign ... can lead to the collapse in the political system.” (Mostafa Danishgar, 26:37)
• Challenges for Protest Movement:
  • The IRGC’s deep-rooted reach means even after bombing halts, suppressing an uprising would be difficult.
    • “I’m not too optimistic ... even if this war leads to a point of state collapse ... it’s not going to be an easy takeover for the protesters.” (Maryam Alemzadeh, 28:25)
• Sentiment Inside Iran:
  • Anger remains mostly directed at the regime for policies precipitating war, but prolonged bombing risks turning public opinion against the US & Israel.
    • “At this moment, the answer ... is no. ... They are blaming the Islamic Republic regime. But if the war takes longer ... this shift may happen.” (Mostafa Danishgar, 30:48)

6. Historical Perspective: Iran-Iraq War’s Lasting Influence

(32:20–37:00)

• Archive Feature:
  • Describes Iran’s use of child soldiers as human minesweepers in the 1980s. Emphasizes deep-rooted faith, martyrdom, and the perpetual Sunni-Shia divide.
    • “These kids just received two weeks training and just how to shoot ... send them to battlefield using them for the mine field to destroy it.” (Archive testimony, 34:54)
• Impact on Present:
  • Amanpour links the past—religious motivation and readiness for self-sacrifice—to the IRGC’s ongoing resilience.

7. Iranian Society Beyond War: Filmmakers and Civil Change

(37:52–end)

• Oscars and Iranian Voices:
  • Despite conflict, Iranian filmmakers are being recognized internationally, showing an “other Iran”—hopeful, diverse, and calling for peace.
    • “We are here not as politicians but as storytellers. ... Change could come from the community itself.” (Mohammad Reza Ayni, 39:13)
• Mood Shifting:
  • Initially, many Iranians supported the war’s goals but have grown disillusioned as civilian suffering mounts, especially after strikes on cultural sites.

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Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• “Either there is some kind of uprising against the regime, or in probably a week or two, the president will call it off. He will say, we have hit all the targets we planned to hit and now it’s over.”
  — Elliott Abrams (03:45)

• “You want to be in a position to say, I have taken these facilities out ... and you won’t have to do this again while you’re president.”
  — Elliott Abrams (04:50)

• “Today what Hezbollah is doing is in full breach of the law, in full breach of the commitments of the government … dragging the full country into regional conflicts.”
  — Adel Nasser (17:34)

• “Iran is increasingly packing the heads of its ballistic missiles with dozens of [cluster munitions] ... aiming to pierce Israel’s sophisticated air defenses.”
  — Jeremy Dimon (20:21)

• “The decapitation ... has little effect, if any, on the very vast ... network ... the IRGC and Basij together ... have.”
  — Maryam Alemzadeh (25:30)

• “At this moment, the answer ... is no. ... They are blaming the Islamic Republic regime. But if the war takes longer ... this shift may happen.”
  — Mostafa Danishgar (30:48)

• “We are here not as politicians but as storytellers. ... Change could come from the community itself.”
  — Mohammad Reza Ayni (39:13)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• US Endgame: Interview with Elliott Abrams — [02:20–10:15]
• Lebanon Fallout & Interview with Justice Minister Adel Nasser — [13:35–19:01]
• On the Ground: Iran’s Use of Cluster Munitions — [19:58–23:26]
• The Iranian Regime's Survival Mechanisms — [24:46–31:23]
• Archival Look: Faith and Martyrdom in the Iran-Iraq War — [32:20–37:00]
• Iranian Filmmakers and Civil Society Amid War — [37:52–end]

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Conclusion

This episode paints a grim picture of escalating violence, ambiguous military goals, and the perils of outside intervention. While US officials maintain optimism about the end of Iran’s regime, experts question the ease of such a transition, highlighting the IRGC’s resilience and complex social dynamics within Iran. The war’s regional fallout—especially in Lebanon—is dire, and the mood inside Iran shifts as civilian suffering rises. Still, glimmers of hope emerge in the stories of Iranian artists and communities striving for democratic change.

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Transcript

[Larry Lamott]

Foreign.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Hello, everyone and welcome to the Amanpour Hour. Here's where we're headed this week. America and Israel's war on Iran enters its third week. President Trump's former special representative for Iran and Venezuela, Elliott Abrams, tells me it'll either end with regime change or Trump declaring his military goals are met. Then the massive fallout in Lebanon from Israel's second front against Hezbollah with almost a million fleeing for their lives. The Lebanese justice minister joins me. And from the Iranian perspective, the view from the opposition. And inside the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, political analyst Mostafa Danishgar and scholar Maryam Alemzadeh join me. Also ahead, these kids just received two

[Adel Nasser]

weeks training and just how to shoot with the guns and send them to battlefield using them for the mine field

[Christiane Amanpour]

to destroy it, using children as human minesweepers. From the archives, how Iran's war with Iraq in the 80s showed a deep faith, devotion and defiance that fuels its military to this day. And finally, it's Oscar weekend and we bring you two Iranian filmmakers and a first time nomination showing a different side of Iranian society. Welcome to the program, everyone. I'm Christiane Amanpour in London. Starting a war is always easier than ending it, as they say. So two weeks after the US And Israel first struck Iran, though significantly weakened, it remains defiant, crippling the vital global oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz and sending prices soaring. In a statement attributed to him and read by Iranian state TV using a stock picture, the new supreme leader, Mojtab Al Khamenei's first proclamation vows revenge for the death of his family, vows the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. And calls for US Bases in the Middle east to be shuttered. And sources familiar with the latest U.S. intelligence findings say there is no evidence of the regime collapsing as of now. So what is the exit strategy? The president has been sending out mixed messages.

[Elliott Abrams]

We're ahead of our initial timeline by a lot. I would say that we probably would not have thought after a month we'd be here.

[Adel Nasser]

We took a little excursion because we

[Elliott Abrams]

felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. And I think you'll see it's going to be a short term excursion. The main thing is we have to win this. They win it quickly, but win it.

[Adel Nasser]

And there are many people, I'm just

[Elliott Abrams]

watching some of the news. Most people say it's already been won. It's just a question of when. When do we stop?

[Christiane Amanpour]

Well, that is a good question. And it's clear that Israel, America's partner wants to go all the way to regime change. And this week its tactics shifted a bit to Israeli drone strikes on local security targets at street checkpoints in Tehran. Despite Trump touting his action in Venezuela as the perfect model for Iran. So far, like in Venezuela, where the Maduro regime remains in place despite his capture, the Donald Trump has backed off the idea of a democratic future for the people of Iran. But despite the confusion about the end game, some of his key advisors still have faith that it will all work out as Donald Trump has said, like Elliot Abrams, who was his point person on Iran and Venezuela in Trump's first term. Elliot Abrams, welcome back to the program.

[Elliott Abrams]

Thank you.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So it's two weeks into this war. Do you have any clear idea of the exit strategy and the precise goals?

[Elliott Abrams]

Well, I think the goals have been set out. We'll come back to that. But the exit strategy, I think, is really one of two things. Either there is some kind of uprising against the regime, or in probably a week or two, the president will call it off. He will say, we have hit all the targets we planned to hit and now it's over.

[Christiane Amanpour]

And knowing him as you do, because you were in 1.0, you had the Iran file, you had the Venezuela file. What do you think is more likely?

[Elliott Abrams]

Oh, I think it's more likely that he will just call it off. I do think that this regime is doomed because the people of Iran really hate it. But that doesn't tell us whether it's going to fall in a week or five years.

[Christiane Amanpour]

What would you be thinking if you were still in the advisory position and what would you advise the president and his essential essentially his war cabinet right now?

[Elliott Abrams]

I would say I would worry less, frankly, about gas prices. If gas prices peak in March, don't worry about November. People will have other things to worry about when they're voting. I would say what the president ought to be thinking about is the remaining almost three years. Do you want to have to do that again? What happens if Iran starts, for example, rebuilding? You want to be in a position to say, I have taken these facilities out, I've taken them all out, the nuclear and the missile, and you won't have to do this again while you're president? I think you want to be able to say I have achieved what I wanted to achieve and my successors may have to deal with this if the Iranian people do not overthrow the regime by the time I leave office. But you don't want to have to do this again.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So it's hard to actually evaluate because let's face it, both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu, after the June 12day war, stood in front of their publics, looked them in the eye and said, we have obliterated the nuclear, you know, program. Everything's entombed or we've crashed it down or they cannot do it. They just can't do it for a generation. We, we've removed this existential threat, said the Israeli prime minister. And now apparently they didn't, and they knew they didn't, so they're going again, so you say. I mean, I think I'm hearing you say this could go on for years. The most important thing in the nuclear thing, right, is the highly enriched uranium, is that not right?

[Elliott Abrams]

That's very important. But there are other questions also, which is their ability to enrich uranium going forward from now. Yes, they presumably still have that amount of enriched uranium, but they can always create more unless they're prevented from doing so. I think also people realize now, their neighbors, above all, realize now the dangers that were coming from their missile program, which obviously have done a lot more damage. The nuclear program has not yet done any damage to neighbors, but the missile and drone programs have. So those need to be hit and really hit very hard.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Can I ask you again about the people of Iran? When asked directly to Senator Rather, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, what will you do to fulfill your promise of helping the Iranian people if they come out after all this? They basically had no answer to that. Venezuela also, slightly different situation, but. But there is not the attention to democracy and freedom of the people in Venezuela. So are you comfortable with that?

[Elliott Abrams]

Well, I think you have to look at this. Not from March 2026 only. The President again has just short of three years. I really do believe that, though, they are not moving at all fast enough toward transition to democracy. There will be one, and there will be an election next year in Venezuela and, and by the time Trump leaves office, they will have restored democracy in Venezuela. In the case of Iran, you know, if two years from today there is an uprising and the regime falls, I think we will all say, well, this would not have happened if it weren't for the events of 2026 and the damage that was done to the regime and its instruments of. So, yeah, if you look at it from this week, it may seem as if, well, that's not working. But that's not the critical thing. The critical thing is what happens now over the next months and years in Iran and when does the regime fall?

[Christiane Amanpour]

All right, well, you're sure it will. Others are not so sure. But look, there's a hope for many people that it will. Cuba is being blocked, as you know, from oil supplies from its traditional allies, Mexico, the, you know, Venezuela, etc. Do you think that this administration has its eyes next set on Cuba and will Cuba collapse?

[Elliott Abrams]

Well, I absolutely think they have their eyes on Cuba. And the problem in Cuba is there's nobody to talk to. That is the President of Cuba, Mr. Diaz Canel has no power in their system. It's not pointless talking to him. So who do you talk to? Raul Castro, well into his 90s, may or may not really be in charge. I know the administration is making efforts to figure that out. Look, without the oil from Venezuela and Mexico, their economy really is going to collapse and they're going to have to start talking to the United States. I'm sure they're willing to do economic change at this point. Political change is going to be harder, and it's harder than Venezuela because Venezuela was a democracy more recently. Venezuela has had a real parliament. Venezuela has real opposition, political leaders like Maria Corino Machado. The transition to democracy will be easier there. But yes, I think the administration wants this to happen while Trump is president and even this year. And I think the chances of it are pretty good.

[Christiane Amanpour]

All right. Thank you for joining us.

[Elliott Abrams]

My pleasure, as always.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So some hope being dangled for the Venezuelan people. Coming up later on the show, fury in Lebanon not just against Israel's renewed invasion, but also against Hezbollah for provoking it. I speak to a key Lebanese government minister as the war creates mass displacement and civilian casualties. Also ahead, the head might have been lopped off, but the Iranian regime is still standing and fighting. Two experts join me to pull back the curtain on the system that keeps Iran going.

[Audie Cornish]

This week on THE Assignment with me, Audie Cornish.

[Christiane Amanpour]

My guest is Megan Cruise, a TikTok

[Elliott Abrams]

movie critic who is part of the up and coming World Paris social critique. She's the perfect person to talk about

[Christiane Amanpour]

this year's Oscars because it's been great

[Elliott Abrams]

for films and weird for discourse.

[Larry Lamott]

It's a lot of back and forth. Siskel and Ebert definitely like laid a

[Elliott Abrams]

groundwork of what modern film discourse and criticism is now because of the Internet,

[Larry Lamott]

it is incredibly interactive and the audience

[Elliott Abrams]

definitely feels like they are a part of it and they do in a lot of ways drive the conversation.

[Audie Cornish]

Listen to the Assignment with me, Audie Cornish.

[Elliott Abrams]

Streaming now on your favorite podcast app, Claire Duffer.

[Audie Cornish]

I'm CNN tech reporter Claire Duffy. This week on the podcast Terms of Service is the AI market a bubble waiting to burst. And if so, how should we all as individuals be thinking about our personal investments and retirement accounts? To help me answer those questions, I have Ross Mayfield here with me. He's an investment strategist for Bayard Private Wealth Management where he helps clients make informed investment decisions.

[Elliott Abrams]

The dot com bubble of the late 90s is the go to example, particularly for today because it's a brand new technology. This also resembles pretty closely the mid-1800s railroad bubble, which this is my favorite bubble. Yeah, it's great, right, because railroads are such an old school technology, but in the 1800s they were the AI of their time. It was this game changing technology.

[Audie Cornish]

Listen to CNN's terms of service wherever you get your podcasts.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Welcome back to the program. There are fires burning all across the region because as predicted, the war on Iran is not staying in Iran. Tehran is retaliating against Persian Gulf states at US Bases there and on civilian and economic targets. America's Citibank has already evacuated its Dubai HQ and others might follow. And Israel is pounding southern Beirut in Lebanon, hitting Hezbollah targets there since the group fired missile and drones across the border and for the first time launched a coordinated attack with Iran. All week, civilians have been mass evacuating hundreds of thousands already displaced. For the first time, the Lebanese state has reacted furiously to the powerful non state armed force, which is Hezbollah. It's demanding that Hezbollah stop and respect the nation's sovereignty. Adel Nasser is the Lebanese justice minister who is taking on the daunting challenge of confronting Hezbollah and he joined me from Beirut. Minister, welcome to the program.

[Adel Nasser]

Thank you for having me.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So what would you say is the state of the war they say against Hezbollah in your country? What is the humanitarian fallout? Is Hezbollah still standing and fighting? Tell me where we are. A few days into this war on

[Adel Nasser]

your country as a result of the current war, there is there are around 570 killed, more than 1400 injured. The number of displaced you are talking about 800,000. But in reality these are only the one that has been registered and I foresee that the number is really higher than this. There are therefore real dramatic situation in Lebanon and the civilians are suffering a lot. The country is suffering for huge damages and the schools are closed and the current situation is very difficult.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Now let me ask you about the central issue here and that is the continued activity of Hezbollah and Hezbollah firing at targets inside Israel in the opening days of Israel and the US War on Iran. Now your government is taking quite a hard line on Hezbollah. Your president has said there's a Banhe's announced a ban on all Hezbollah military actions, but they're still fighting. So what can you do? I mean, how. First of all, what can you do to stop them right now?

[Adel Nasser]

No, what is important at the beginning is to explain a little bit that after a long period of time where Hezbollah was installing all its military infrastructure and this government took a first decision through its the governmental declaration that has been presented to the parliament where it was clearly stated that the monopoly of the state, of the strengths must be given only to the state. After that, there was strikes coming from Israel and Israel was taking as a pretext the presence of the military infrastructure of Hezbollah. But the position of the state is that in order to build, for internal reasons and for the interest of Lebanon, it was very important to implement the monopoly of the weapons. And Hezbollah was complicating the process. Hezbollah did not cooperate as much as it should in this process. And by not cooperating, it was clear that Hezbollah was offering also pretexts for Israel to strike on Lebanon. And when Hezbollah took the unilateral decision to launch rockets against Israel, they gave also the pretext to Israel to start a large war. So we were in a process of strikes and now we are in a full war. It is clear that in order for Lebanon to be able to face Israel in the diplomatical field or in diplomacy, Lebanon need to have the decision of war and peace and to be to have the monopoly of strength within Lebanon. This is a requirement that we consider as government needed for the sake of Lebanon, for the interest of all the population of Lebanon. And we consider that Hezbollah's action is an obstacle for the government to be able to take all appropriate actions to defense to defend Lebanon's interests.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Can I ask you personally, do you feel safe talking out? You saw what happened to Prime Minister Rafi Kariri. Do you feel safe taking them on?

[Adel Nasser]

Let's say that when we are in a specific position, we have to take the stand we believe in, in the interests of the state. And again, I can tell you that today what Hezbollah is doing is in full breach of the law, in full breach of the commitments of the government towards its own population, its own people, to stop having a parallel movement, making decisions regarding war and peace and engaging or dragging the full country into regional conflicts. If you want to assess into a political analysis, based on declarations made and positions taken, it seems that Hezbollah is acting as if he wants to be in a front position in the regional war between Israel and the US in one side and Iran on the other side, while the interest of Lebanon and all the people of Lebanon is to stay away of regional conflicts. We are a small country. We are a country having various numbers of communities. We can be a model of coexistence, and we should be a model of coexistence, and we should be a model of peace for the world and not to be dragged into the wars of the others.

[Christiane Amanpour]

All right. Minister Adel Nasser, thank you very much indeed for joining us on that. But that joint Hezbollah and Iran strike on Israel has caused mayhem. How Tehran is using cluster munitions to try and pierce Israel's Iron Dome. A report from Jeremy Dimon, who is there next.

[Elliott Abrams]

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[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

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[Elliott Abrams]

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[Christiane Amanpour]

Welcome back. Iran's retaliation includes the first ever coordinated attack with Hezbollah on Israel, including the use of cluster munitions. The danger, effectiveness and scale of those strikes are shaking Israelis as CNN's Jeremy diamond witnesses and explains how the aim pierce Israel's iron Dome.

[Larry Lamott]

Their orange glow streaks across the night sky, each speck of light a small bomb carrying up to 11 pounds of explosives and raining down indiscriminately, sometimes in densely populated areas. They are cluster munitions, and Iran is increasingly packing the heads of its ballistic missiles with dozens of them aiming to pierce Israel's sophisticated air defenses. One of those small bombs struck the roof of this residential building, and you can see the hole is only a few inches wide. And yet this is the kind of destruction that just one of those small bombs can cause. One of multiple impact points from a single missile. We confirmed nine separate impacts from that one missile. They include this strike on a Tel Aviv car wash that severely wounded one man and another in a neighboring suburb. The impacts are spread out across seven miles of mostly residential neighborhoods, illustrating why using these munitions in populated areas violates international law. The next day, another cluster missile attack sends bomblets tumbling south of Tel Aviv. At least five impacts scattered across eight miles. One bomb hit a street here. Nearby, two construction workers were killed, the first fatalities in Israel caused by these weapons. Israel's military, which has itself deployed cluster munitions in other wars, says about half of Iran's missile attacks use these munitions. Vehicles overturned shrapnel slicing through anything near the impact. Iran's missiles are more destructive when equipped with a single large warhead, but the clusters are much tougher to intercept.

[Adel Nasser]

It's a mechanism to bypass active missile defense. In some cases, you can hit the target with an arrow or with a Thaad missile, for example, but the bomblets will continue and will get to the target.

[Larry Lamott]

The Israeli military does try and intercept these bomblets, expending a costly and finite quantity of interceptors in the process. So if there is a strategy here by Iran that could be it, to try and deplete Israel's air defenses, we know it.

[Adel Nasser]

In some cases, the solution by Iran is salvo of a very large quantity of even single warhead ballistic missiles and try to fire and coordinate the launch sites. I think Iran doesn't have the capability at the moment of orchestrating a large barrage of ballistic missiles. So if Iran wants to cause a lot of damage even with a small number of ballistic missiles, then submunition missiles with bomblets will be the weapon of

[Larry Lamott]

choice, the weapon of choice as Iran pursues a war of attrition one missile at a time. Jeremy Dimon, cnn, Tel Aviv.

[Christiane Amanpour]

And as Iran continues to fight back against superior military might from abroad and total dissatisfaction from within, a look at what makes it last. We speak to two Iranian experts next.

[Elliott Abrams]

Tev I've got News for your ears, the podcast. I am your host, Michael Ian Black. If you're some cargo ship captain from Kuala Lumpur and you want America to prevail in this war, it is your patriotic duty to send your cargo ship through the Strait of Hormuz and get sunk, right? And get murdered.

[Christiane Amanpour]

And here's the thing, just doing your job.

[Elliott Abrams]

This is a man of his word.

[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

Donald Trump will pay for the insurance

[Elliott Abrams]

on that, Right, Just like he paid for all the burgers for everybody last year.

[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

That's right.

[Elliott Abrams]

Burgers for all. Have I GOT News for your Ears Releases new episodes every Wednesday. Don't miss an episode. Follow us wherever you get your podcasts. The relationship between the FBI director and the president has always been complicated. Unravel the complex dynamic. In the CNN original series Standoff, the FBI Power and Paranoia premieres Sunday, March 22nd on CNN.

[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

And next day on the CNN app.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Welcome back. This week, Tehran says it launched the, quote, most intense and heaviest operation since this war began. The US And Israel have already said that about their own efforts. Reportedly, Iran even laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, effectively shutting the global waterway which is crucial for the world's oil economy. The New supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba has a target on his back, says Israel. So let's see how the system was built to survive in asymmetric warfare. With Iranian political analyst Mostafa Danishkar and Maryam Alemzadeh, associate professor in history and politics of Iran and at Oxford University and an expert also on the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

[Audie Cornish]

The strength of the Revolutionary Guards has not diminished significantly because this organization was established and grew in a way that was not reliant on its top leadership. The decapitation both of Ayatollah Khamenei and the top military commanders has little effect, if any, on the very vast network, the capillary, the penetrated network of branches and stations and bases that the IRGC and Basij together with other state sponsored organizations have.

[Christiane Amanpour]

So to you, Mustafa Adanishkar, then, do you think that the aims that you were hoping for and certainly many in the diaspora and elsewhere inside Iran, that this action, which many have celebrated inside Iran, will lead to an uprising? I ask that because, as you know, I asked Eliot Abrams, I said, how is this going to end? He said, either with an uprising or with Trump declaring, you know, he's won and ending the war.

[Mostafa Danishgar]

I think two lines in parallel are weakening the Iranian regime now. First is the air campaign that is handled by US And Israel in parallel. People and protesters in the street, they can uprise at any moment. I disagree that IRGC is not weakening now. They are weakening and we can see the indicators. You can see they cannot defend the air. And the US And Israel army can target wherever they want, whatever they want. And inside Iran, they targeted Iranian supreme leader easily easier than any other thing. So I think this campaign, this air campaign, besides the people, the protesters and the people, they are in anger from their country, from the massacre that happened in January 8th and 9th. So they will, at some moment they can take over the government. This can lead to the collapse in the political system, political structure and lead to people to feel that they are secured and they can take the protest to the street one more time.

[Christiane Amanpour]

How do you think, for instance, the naming of Mujtaba Khamenei is going to affect the prosecution of this war? And the they're still being quite defiant. Well, very defiant. I mean, people, you know, leaders there are saying, no, we're not going to negotiate and we're going to cause Iran a lot of rather the west and the world a lot of economic pain.

[Audie Cornish]

Yes, the air defense system might be dying down a lot of Iran's classic, as in like regular army, naval force and some of the IRGC boats might be down, but in my view, that's never been the strength of the irgc. The strength of the IRGC has been its penetration into the country, into its farthest and deepest corners, and that is to a large extent still intact. That's why I'm not too optimistic that even if this war leads to a point of state collapse and there's like some, like at these temporary ceasefire where bombs are not falling and people can come out of survival mode and take on the streets again, which in my opinion has also, like the likelihood of it has also been reduced by the war. Even if that happens, it's not going to be an easy takeover for the protesters, who I believe are the majority of the population now because the weapons are still in the hands of the IRGC and Basij and they do not need the more advanced equipment that has been destroyed to some extent in order to repress a popular uprising. And Mosheba Khamenei's appointment, I think he is basically the IRGC's person. He obeys the IRGC, not the other way around. So if the IRGC decides to take a more pragmatic, more conciliatory route, if it does, I think Mojtab Khamenei will be no hurdle to that.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Let me ask you, Professor Dhanushkar, in our final minute, are you concerned with what we're hearing from inside Iran and maybe even some in the diaspora, that the attacks on Iranian civilians, whether it's accidental or not, the attack on the depot with, you know, the toxic rain and oil falling down, the damage to really important cultural heritage is beginning to frighten them and question whether this actually is a war against just the regime or is it against all Iran and all Iranians? Are you concerned about that shift in opinion?

[Mostafa Danishgar]

I think if the war take longer than it should be, yes. But at this moment, the answer simply is no. Because the people put the blame on the government, on irgc, because their policy on eliminating Israel and anti American Americanism put the country and brought this war to our country. So they are blaming the Islamic Republic regime at this moment. But if the war takes longer than it should be, yes, this shift may happen, but I don't think it will take that long.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Coming up, has the US underestimated the fervor and devotion of the IRGC who style themselves as guardians of the Islamic revolution? From my archive, a report on how faith and loyalty drove even children to martyrdom during the 1980s Iran Iraq War.

[Elliott Abrams]

Taxact is here anytime you want to

[Christiane Amanpour]

easily file your taxes.

[Elliott Abrams]

Tax act is here for the early birds who like to knock them out as soon as the season opens and for the procrastinators who like to wait until the very last minute. Tax act is also here for the middlers who file right in the middle of tax season. No one ever talks about the middlers, but TaxAct sees you and TaxAct respects you. Tax Act. Let's get them over with.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Welcome back to the program. When the war began two weeks ago, President Trump called for Iran's military to lay down its arms or face certain death. But he and his war planners had failed to understand or remember the strong religious fervor that commits millions to face death in the name of their faith and guarding their Islamic revolution. So we dug into the archives to find in the Name of God, the incredible series based on exclusive footage acquired by CNN in the 80s at the height of the Iran Iraq war. That's when Iraq's Saddam Hussein had invaded Iran, thinking it was weakened by the Islamic revolution that deposed the Shah and would be easily defeated, allowing Saddam to achieve his dream of controlling the vital waterways of the Persian Gulf oil trade. In this piece we see a boy, Mohammed, at the very most 17 years old, probably younger, who was recruited for the front by Iran's paramilitary the Basij. His family bid him a fond farewell, knowing that he would likely be martyred for one of these children's missions would be acting as human Minesweepers. And here's CNN's Larry Lamott narrating this report on the series I assisted with while still an entry level recruit at CN.

[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

Khomeini. You are the leader, they chant. We will go in your direction. We will give our lives for you. 17 year old Mohammed Falaksedeh and his fellow volunteers are on their way to basic training and eventually to battle. They will fight in what Khomeini calls the imposed war, a conflict that started with Iraq's invasion of Iran in 1980 and has since become a full scale holy war. It is God's command for us to go to war, and it is also God's promise that if we die as martyrs, we will go to heaven. But that's not why we're here. We're here because God has told us to be here. The hereafter, some contend, is the primary training focus for these Basij volunteers. At a prisoner of war camp in Iraq, two captured Iranians told CNN last year that actual military training for the Basij is minimal.

[Adel Nasser]

These kids just received two weeks training and just how to shoot with the guns and they send them to battlefield using them for the mine field to destroy it.

[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

Landmines have been the focus of much outcry in this war. Specifically the use of human minesweepers. Waves of young volunteers going to their deaths paving the way for tanks that are in short supply. Mohammed sees it this way. Boys just don't walk around the minefield for just no reason at all. Sometimes it is necessary to do that. It is necessary for a few people to go and make the mines explain explode in order to make the victory possible. Training classes at this Iranian camp appear rudimentary. Recruits are taught how to identify land mines, how to plant them in the ground and how to dismantle them without explosion. Prayers are as essential to the Iranian soldiers as armaments. They first prepare themselves with ceremonial cleansing. Then with shoes removed, facing towards the holy city of Mecca. The soldiers pray five times daily, an important part of Islamic ritual. They ask Allah for victory and for good help for the ayatollah Khomeini. And they beat their chest. A sign of their willingness to sacrifice for Islam. Muhammad and 92% of his Iranian countrymen are are Shiite Muslims, a fundamentalist minority within the Islamic world. Their enemy, Iraq, though 55% Shiite, is ruled by Sunni Muslims under the leadership of Saddam Hussein. Mohammed sees this war not as a battle between Khomeini and hussein, not Iran versus Iraq, but as the continuation of a 1300 year old split between the two main Muslim sects, Sunni and Shiite. Our goal in Iraq is not for soil or land. Our purpose is to free the people. That's what we want to do, is free the Iraqi people.

[Christiane Amanpour]

A warning from four decades ago and that fight between the two sects of Islam is playing out still right now. Add to that what Iran calls a battle against the great Satan, the United States and its helpmate Israel. When we come back with the u. S. Iran war. An unsettling backdrop to the Academy awards. Tomorrow night I meet the Iranian filmmakers campaigning for their Oscar nominated documentary and for change back home,

[Elliott Abrams]

The Oscars have

[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

been a tent pole of American life.

[Larry Lamott]

People around the world know what the Oscars are. Will Hollywood survive?

[Elliott Abrams]

An era of Hollywood and the Oscars

[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

still golden, now streaming on the CNN app.

[Christiane Amanpour]

Welcome back. And finally, there is little to celebrate at this time of war, death, skyrocketing oil prices and total uncertainty shaking the whole world. And yet Sunday's academy awards marathon will be a welcome distraction. And it's also Good to remember that art can give us a different perspective and help us get beyond the stereotypes. That is especially true of the Iranian films in contention this year. Among them it was just an accident whose screenwriter Mehti Mahmoudian we spoke to last week bravely calling for an end to tyranny even under the bombs falling on Iran. And having just been released from yet another spell in prison. We have also spoken to the two Iranian filmmakers who've made Cutting through Rocks. It's become the first ever Iranian documentary to be nominated for an Oscar and follows a female midwife, motorcycle rider and would be politician who is running for local office in her rural village. And indeed, Sara Charvardi won overcoming deeply rooted misogyny and she delivered for men and women who had voted for her. I spoke to the filmmakers Mohammad Reza Ayni and Sarah Haki just after Tehran's brutal crackdown on protesters that killed thousands and just before this war broke out.

[Mostafa Danishgar]

The only thing that give me hope about the future of our country is its people. People like Sara Shahverdi that you saw in the film or people like Sara Haki as the director behind the camera and by having the same mission to bring change to the community. And actually we both believe that change could come from the community itself. And this is the result of many people that they are fighting and they supporting each other for a good change. And we are here not as politicians but as storytellers. We have the responsibility to share those stories, to inspire each other and to remind each other that change is possible in a very peaceful way.

[Christiane Amanpour]

While it's absolutely clear that most Iranians do want to change their government and many support the U S Israel war this week the mood shifted somewhat after the attack on the fuel depot in Tehran that left them breathing poison fumes and covered in black toxic oily rain. In addition, the spreading damage done to Iran's cultural sites and heritage and is sparking anger and dismay. Some who believed are now asking is this war against the regime or against our nation and against all of us? Now that is all we have time for. Don't forget you can find all of our shows online as [e-mail] audio and on all other major platforms. I'm Christiana Manpour in London. Thank you for watching and I'll see you again next week. Hey, I'm Anderson Cooper. On my podcast All There Is we explore grief and loss in all its complexities. You'll hear deeply moving and honest discussions

[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

with people who have faced and are

[Christiane Amanpour]

living with life altering losses.

[Podcast Narrator/Announcer]

My conversations with Robert Irwin. Robert grew up in the public eye. His dad, Steve Irwin, was known around the world as the Crocodile Hunter.

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But one of the greatest gifts in my life is the fact that my entire existence and my childhood growing up

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with dad was all captured on camera.

[Christiane Amanpour]

I mean, it is all there. And you watch dad for two seconds and you get a pretty good picture

[Elliott Abrams]

of the sort of passionate individual that he was talking.

[Adel Nasser]

Grief building, community.

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That's what the podcast is all about.

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This is all there is.

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