Amanpour – "What to Expect if the US Gov Shuts Down"
CNN Podcasts | Sept 30, 2025
Hosted by Bianna Golodryga (sitting in for Christiane Amanpour)
Overview
This episode focuses on the looming US government shutdown, examining its unique aspects, likely consequences, and political dynamics. The program features thoughtful interviews with Jared Bernstein (former Biden chief economist), Anshul Pfeffer (Israeli journalist), Cory Schake (defense expert), and Daeg Kang (AP investigative reporter). In addition to the shutdown, it addresses Trump’s new approach to the military, the latest bid for peace in Gaza, and the role of American tech in enabling Chinese surveillance.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Looming US Government Shutdown
Political Stalemate and Blame Game
- With Congress likely to miss funding deadlines, both parties are trading blame. Democrats want healthcare provisions; Republicans, led by President Trump, refuse to negotiate.
- Jared Bernstein: "[The bill] has not one iota of Democratic input." (01:58)
- Anshul Pfeffer: "We are not going to support a partisan Republican spending bill." (02:00)
- Jared Bernstein: "I think we're headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won't do the right thing." (02:04)
Why This Shutdown Is Different
- Past shutdowns often spared some agencies, but this time, all federal agencies face closure.
- Over 800,000 federal workers could be furloughed; 'essential' workers (e.g., TSA, Social Security) must work without pay, adding stress in an already fragile economy.
- Bernstein: "It's just extremely wasteful and, you know, a big own goal kick in my view, by dint of these folks just not being able to keep the lights on." (03:44)
The Legality and Threat of Mass Firings
- President Trump threatens mass firings as a negotiating tactic.
- Bernstein warns about damage to worker morale and increased unemployment, especially for Black workers. The legality of such presidential action, he says, is unclear due to recent Supreme Court decisions.
- Bernstein: "The conservatives on the Supreme Court have given the President a lot more leeway than many of us think the law allows. So the legal question is an open one." (04:57)
Trust and Deal-Making
- Democrats demand guarantees that Republicans won’t later rescind funds. Bernstein likens it to "Charlie Brown with the football," stressing a history of broken deals and legal ambiguity from the Supreme Court.
- Bernstein: "Democrats are well within their rights to not shake hands with someone who you can't trust." (07:00)
Public Opinion and Polling
- Recent polls: 26% blame Trump/Congress, 19% Democrats, 33% both.
- Blame during shutdowns is unpredictable, with both parties at risk, but Republicans potentially more so since they control the presidency and Congress.
- Bernstein: "At the end of the day, just by dint of how much of the government [Republicans] control… they probably are more likely to get the blame." (09:45)
Impact on Markets and Data
- A Friday jobs report would be delayed, leaving markets and the Federal Reserve without key data.
- Bernstein argues data suppression (delayed release) is more likely than manipulated reports.
- Bernstein: "It is kind of a feature, not a bug, for folks... who don't want anyone to see any more data... showing that the job market is, in fact, developing some cracks." (11:41)
- ADP (private job data) could be a temporary substitute, but lacks the detail and credibility of official reports.
2. Middle East: Possible End to Gaza War?
Trump's Peace Plan and Netanyahu's Position
- Israeli PM Netanyahu meets President Trump and, under pressure, publicly accepts a US ceasefire plan, which previous administrations failed to achieve.
- Pfeffer: "Behind the scenes, there's been intense pressure on Netanyahu… to agree finally to... ending this war, something that he's resisted for almost two years now." (15:48)
What's New About Trump’s Plan?
- Hostage releases: Hamas must deliver all hostages in the first three days, giving up its main leverage early.
- Israeli withdrawal: Phased, but with Israeli forces remaining in certain perimeter areas.
- Pfeffer: "Netanyahu managed to get from Trump… important elements which will make it very difficult for Hamas to accept the plan." (17:10)
Challenges for Hamas and International Pressure
- Qatar, Turkey, and Arab states pressure Hamas to accept a deal. However, complex issues remain (hostage/prisoner exchange details, detailed ceasefire mechanism, Israeli timetable).
- Pfeffer: "Even if Hamas says yes... that's not yet a ceasefire." (22:44)
Netanyahu's Balancing Act
- Netanyahu navigates between Trump/US expectations, Israeli voters (most support a deal), and a right-wing coalition demanding total victory.
- Pfeffer: "He's having almost three parallel conversations right now... He needs this entire coalition to stay in power after the election." (24:22)
3. Trump’s Military Vision and Civil-Military Relations
Hegseth’s Summit and "Warrior Ethos"
- Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gathers senior military leaders, declares the restoration of “scary, tough, and disciplined” basic training.
- Trump and Hegseth frame this as “liberation day” for the military.
Politicization and the Risks
- Trump and Hegseth speak of "enemies within," praise deployments to Democratic-run cities, and suggest using domestic cities as “training grounds.”
- Cory Schake: "That's a very disturbing and dangerous thing that the President and the Secretary have been up to this morning." (28:18)
- Schake: "It's a terrible idea. It's an illegal idea.” (30:01)
Ending Diversity Efforts & “Woke” Military
- Hegseth criticizes diversity efforts, claims Defense will be a “meritocracy.”
- Schake: "Secretary Hegseth... is just, it's sort of a cartoon manly military." (34:08)
- Underlying messages appear to devalue the service of minorities and women.
- Schake: “It's part of an undercurrent of devaluing the service of minorities and women in the American military. And it's not good for the force, to be frank, but it's not nearly as dangerous as other things the president and the secretary said today." (35:26)
FAFO (F*** Around and Find Out)
- Hegseth uses "FAFO" as a governing acronym for US defense posture.
- Schake: "That sounds like something a Marine sergeant would say to lance corporals, not something appropriate for the secretary of defense to say... It's juvenile." (37:16)
4. US Tech and China’s Surveillance State
Complicity of American Companies
- AP reporter Daeg Kang details how IBM, Dell, Cisco, etc., went beyond mere sales, helping design China’s digital policing systems (e.g., the “Golden Shield” project).
- Kang: "American companies not only sold some goods to the Chinese police, they actually were complicit in designing the entire system from top down..." (38:54)
Types of Tech and Their Use
- Marketing materials from US firms explicitly targeted “stability maintenance” and “crushing protests” for Chinese authorities.
- Some provided facial recognition, mapping, storage, or DNA collection technologies.
- Kang: “For example, Thermo Fisher... explicitly marketing the ability of their test kits to also test members of China's Uyghur and Tibetan ethnicities as well.” (47:28)
Corporate Responses and Regulatory Gaps
- Most companies claim to follow export control laws, but many collaborated until the legal line was crossed (e.g., after sanctions).
- Kang: "They're really kind of walking right up to the line of what is permissible." (50:46)
Global Spread of Surveillance
- American tech in surveillance is not “just a China issue”—the same tools are being used at US borders and in Gaza.
- Kang: "This is not just a China problem... right now it might be us Chinese that's suffering, but sooner or later, Americans and people from other countries will suffer the consequences as well." (52:26)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- “This is purely and simply hostage taking on behalf of the Democrats.” – Jared Bernstein (02:11)
- “It's just extremely wasteful and you know, a big own goal kick in my view, by dint of these folks just not being able to keep the lights on.” – Jared Bernstein (03:44)
- “Charlie Brown with the football all over again with much higher consequences.” – Jared Bernstein (05:37)
- “[On the military summit:] The only positive element that we should take away... was how disciplined and professional the response of the military was. They did not engage in the partisan politics that the President and the Secretary did.” – Cory Schake (28:18)
- “It's a terrible idea. It's an illegal idea.” – Cory Schake on using US cities as training grounds for troops (30:01)
- “You are not politically correct and don’t necessarily belong always in polite society. We are not an army of one. We are a joint force of millions of selfless Americans.” – Pete Hegseth (31:26)
- “That sounds like something a Marine sergeant would say to lance corporals, not something appropriate for the secretary of defense.” – Cory Schake on "FAFO" (37:16)
- “American companies…and the Chinese policing apparatus as it is today, I mean, it wouldn't have existed without the assistance of American companies.” – Daeg Kang (39:05)
Important Timestamps
- 00:08 – Jared Bernstein & opening scene-setter on the shutdown
- 02:57 – Bernstein explains why this shutdown is different (all agencies affected, workers without pay)
- 04:25 – Trump threatens mass firings, legal ambiguity discussed by Bernstein
- 07:18 – Discussion on rescission of funds and trust in negotiations
- 10:55 – Bernstein on economic data suppression and market risk
- 14:38–24:26 – Breakthrough on Gaza ceasefire: Trump/Netanyahu/Hamas dynamics (Pfeffer interview)
- 27:52 – Cory Schake on Trump and Hegseth’s military summit
- 29:45 – Trump floats using US cities as military training grounds; Schake’s strong rebuttal
- 31:19 – Hegseth’s “liberation” and “warrior ethos” remarks, plus reaction
- 33:21 – Defense Department’s “woke” critique and meritocracy claims
- 36:47 – The “FAFO” military doctrine remark
- 38:29 – Daeg Kang segment: Tech companies involved in Chinese surveillance
- 46:00–52:26 – Deep dive into US-origin tech in repression and the global nature of surveillance
Tone and Language
- The episode is measured, urgent, and at times incredulous—reflecting dismay at escalating partisanship, the high stakes of government dysfunction, and the normalization of militarized rhetoric.
- Experts and journalists use clear, direct, and sometimes wry language to underscore the gravity of the issues and the absurdity of some statements and policies.
Conclusion
This episode offers a sobering deep dive into the US government shutdown’s implications, the volatile state of US politics, a potential breakthrough (and the challenges ahead) for peace in Gaza, the intensifying militarization of American public life under Trump and Hegseth, and America’s overlooked role in authoritarian surveillance abroad. Insightful expert voices challenge official narratives, highlight overlooked dangers, and provide crucial context for understanding these rapidly evolving stories.