Amanpour: "What Will US Do With Iran?"

Date: February 2, 2026
Podcast: Amanpour (CNN International)
Host: Bianna Golodryga (sitting in for Christiane Amanpour)

Main Theme

This episode explores the intensifying standoff and diplomatic maneuvering between the United States and Iran following threats of regional war, escalating protests and government crackdowns in Iran, and a reported prospective meeting between US and Iranian officials. The discussion expands to how US policy is shaping the futures of Cuba and Venezuela, and closes with an examination of what progressive movements can learn from the organizational durability of the MAGA right.

Key Discussions and Insights

US-Iran Relations: War or Diplomacy?

Military Buildup and Diplomatic Overtures

• The US has increased its military presence near Iran as both sides hint at possible high-level diplomatic talks ([00:48]).
• Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, warns of war if attacked, to which President Trump responds with ambiguous rhetoric—hoping for a deal but threatening consequences ([01:40-01:56], [02:24]).

Iranian Perspective

• Interview with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi (or an official in that role) underscores deep mistrust:
  • "We have lost our trust to the United States as a negotiating partner." ([00:08], [02:24])
  • Talks possible if the US offers a "fair and equitable deal" and lifts sanctions; Iran insists on focus on nuclear weapons, not missiles or regional proxies ([02:24]-[03:55]).
  • "President Trump said no nuclear weapons and we fully agree... in return we expect sanction lifting." ([03:55])
  • On war: "If war starts, that would be a disaster for everybody... many parts of the region would be involved, engaged and that could be very dangerous." ([04:15])

Analyst Response: Historian Abbas Malani

• Deep skepticism regarding both American strategy and Iranian promises ([06:16]-[09:00]):
  • "The minimum conditions the US has set are three. Arakchi basically said they won’t accept any of them." ([06:16])
  • "...they have guaranteed that they won’t build a bomb for 35 years, and they have lied." ([06:50])
• Malani asserts US (and international) policy should focus on supporting Iranian democracy, not rescuing a "murderous regime" ([09:00], [10:30]):
  • "People did not go to their death so that the US can get a better deal... People went to their death in order for a democratic Iran." ([06:58])
  • Emphasizes supporting Internet access, freezing regime assets, and withholding diplomatic lifelines ([17:21]).

Regime Change and Resistance Inside Iran

• Discusses proposals for transitional government post-Khamenei and skepticism about unity among opposition ([11:09]-[13:44]):
  • References coalition ideas (Pahlavi, Mousavi) as "fantasy," but supports a broader 'pacted transition' like in South Africa or Poland ([12:23]).
  • "Everybody has to come together and I think get rid of this regime, which will then and only then solve the nuclear problem... a democratic Iran, nothing else." ([14:00])

Risk of War and Civil Strife

• Fears the government's crackdown is deliberately radicalizing the situation, risking civil war ([14:55]).
  • "He [Khamenei] wants to radicalize. He wants to polarize." ([13:44])
  • Malani: US must take Khamenei’s threats seriously, but the regime's grip is weaker than before ([18:22]): "This regime is far more diminished now than it was two years ago." ([18:22])

Cuba and Venezuela: Domino Effects of US Policy

Venezuela’s US-backed Regime Change

• US takes control of Venezuela after the capture of Nicolás Maduro; Cuba loses key ally and oil supplier ([21:08]).
• Cuba faces deepening crisis: executions (soldiers returning to Cuba), oil shortages, blackouts, and economic desperation ([21:08]-[25:08]).
  • Ordinary Cubans share fatalism and frustration, reports Patrick Ottman from Havana.

US Pressure on Cuba

• President Trump seeks tougher sanctions and oil blockades, with Marco Rubio leading Cuba policy ([27:07]).
  • "We would love to see the regime change... [but not make it change]." ([29:42])
• Cuba's options narrow—analyst Michael J. Bustamante notes mutual negotiation unlikely as the US revives "Monroe Doctrine" tactics ([27:29]).
• Prospects for "deals" are murky—Cuba lacks obvious internal opposition or reformist insiders, and the Cuban American leadership in Washington is resistant to negotiation ([27:29]-[32:48]).
• Bustamante warns the humanitarian costs will fall on ordinary Cubans, and both the US and Cuba must adapt for any positive outcome ([36:07]).

The MAGA Movement and Lessons for Democrats

Durable Organizing Versus Flashy Mobilization

• Charles Duhigg explains differences between right and left strategies ([39:11]-[53:39]):
  • "They've built a very sustainable, very durable movement that will frankly outlast Donald Trump." ([40:50])
  • Contrasts "mobilizing" (protests) with "organizing" (local, lasting networks)—MAGA excels at the latter; Democrats focus on large demonstrations that don’t build lasting infrastructure ([41:43],[44:35]).
• Rightwing groups adapted Democratic grassroots tactics, perfecting them via organizations like Faith and Freedom Coalition and Turning Point USA ([44:55]).
  • "They make [MAGA leaders] read books about the Obama campaign... just steal the ideas about organizing." ([44:55])

On Internal Disagreement and Big Tent Movements

• Purity tests divide Democratic groups while MAGA is a broader 'big tent' ([47:01], [48:05]):
  • "MAGA is very focused on being a big tent. All you have to do is say you're gonna vote for the guy at the top ... Democrats are much more focused on ideological purity, and it's to the detriment of the party." ([49:21])
  • Explains how crises (Trump, COVID, George Floyd) intensified Democratic emphasis on unity, but warns this leads to dogma and exclusion, limiting their effectiveness ([49:55]).

Grassroots Organizing in Minneapolis

• Cites Minneapolis as an example where long-term grassroots organizing (group Isaiah) led to real, lasting mobilization ([52:13]):
  • "A social movement can't exist without both organizing and mobilizing… it's that durability, those unsung heroes of local people... That is what creates real change." ([53:36])

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "We have lost our trust to the United States as a negotiating partner."
  – Iranian Official ([00:08], [02:24])

• "If war starts, that would be a disaster for everybody... many parts of the region would be involved."
  – Iranian Official ([04:15])

• "People did not go to their death so that the US can get a better deal. People went to their death in order for a democratic Iran."
  – Abbas Malani ([06:58])

• "Without a democratic Iran, this regime will make another deal and will cheat as they have on every deal that they have made over the last 35 years, including nuclear deals."
  – Abbas Malani ([07:45])

• "The nuclear problem has one solution. Iran's nuclear problem has one solution, a democratic Iran, nothing else."
  – Abbas Malani ([14:00])

• "They've built a very sustainable, very durable movement that will frankly outlast Donald Trump."
  – Charles Duhigg ([40:50])

• "MAGA says if you wear the red hat, you're allowed in... Democrats are much more focused on ideological purity, and it's to the detriment of the party."
  – Charles Duhigg ([48:05]-[49:21])

Timestamps for Key Segments

• US-Iran Tensions and Diplomacy: [00:48]–[05:01]
• Analysis by Abbas Malani on Iran, Regime Legitimacy, and US Policy: [06:16]–[19:15]
• US Influence in Cuba and Venezuela, Reporting from Havana: [21:08]–[26:34]
• Michael J. Bustamante on Cuba's Crisis and US Strategy: [26:34]–[37:11]
• Charles Duhigg on MAGA Organization and Lessons for Democrats: [39:53]–[53:36]

Conclusion

This episode presents a comprehensive look at US foreign policy dilemmas—from the high-stakes game with Iran ("deal or disaster") to imposing pressure on Cuba and Venezuela, threading a common theme: the struggle between hard power and the quest for democratic legitimacy. The closing segment pivots to domestic political lessons, emphasizing the necessity of durable grassroots organizing for progressive change—contrasting Democratic fragmentation with the right's big-tent persistence. The conversation, packed with informed skepticism and candid critique, offers a sobering look at the challenges and potential consequences of US actions abroad and at home.