Amanpour Podcast Summary

Episode: When Will Global Oil Prices Stabilize?
Date: March 24, 2026
Host: Paula Newton (filling in for Christiane Amanpour)
Podcast: CNN's Amanpour

Episode Overview

This episode tackles the volatility of global oil prices amid intensifying conflict in the Middle East, particularly following sustained strikes across the region, and discusses whether the crisis could drag Gulf countries into war. The show features analysis from regional and energy experts on the calculus Gulf states must make, the consequences for global energy markets, implications of US foreign policy, and the humanitarian impact in Lebanon and Cuba. The latter half includes segments on the US economy’s response to oil and international shocks, featuring economist Jason Furman.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Middle East Escalation and the Gulf’s Dilemma

Guests:

• Mehran Kamrava, Professor of Government, Georgetown University in Qatar
• Karen Young, Senior Research Scholar, Center on Global Energy Policy, Columbia University

Current State of Escalation or De-escalation

• The situation in the region has become more stable in the last 48 hours, especially in Doha, Qatar, with no recent attacks ([03:22]).
• Gulf states (notably Saudi Arabia and UAE) have taken a more assertive stance towards Iran but remain cautious, fearing abandonment by the US should they openly join the war.
  • Kamrava:

  "[The Gulf states] are quite wary that at any moment, if they enter the war, America could pack up and go. And with President Trump being very unpredictable ... they might then be left on their own without American cover." ([03:54])

Energy Market Disruption and Price Surges

• The main disruption is not oil supply, but transit—specifically, the closure or endangerment of the Strait of Hormuz ([05:23]).
• Key pipelines in UAE and Saudi Arabia help, but attacks on critical infrastructure (as seen in Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility) could cause serious escalation and further market instability.
• Most analysts foresee sustained high oil prices ($80–$100/barrel) until at least 2028, even if fighting ceases soon ([05:52]).
  • Karen Young:

  “Most analysts now see oil prices staying high for quite some time until 2028, even with a resolution of this conflict ... oil prices between $80 and $100 a barrel through the end of 2027.” ([05:53])

Regional Security Concerns

• The recent war has shattered the "tremendous tranquility and security" Gulf countries have enjoyed, raising future costs of doing business and eroding their attractiveness to global talent ([09:00]).
• Security alliances may need diversification, with Gulf states now more open to collaborations beyond the US, including the EU, Turkey, and even Pakistan ([08:16]).

Impact on Asia and Europe

• Most Gulf energy exports go to Asia. Prolonged disruptions force poorer Asian economies to introduce austerity measures, while wealthier nations use subsidies. Europe is especially vulnerable due to the halt of 20% of global LNG (from Qatar) ([11:50]).

2. Iranian Regime and Negotiation Prospects

Who Is Really in Charge?

• Parliamentary Speaker Mohamed Bagher Ghalibaf is emerging as the pivotal figure in Iran’s military decisions, representing a pragmatic—if controversial—operator inside the regime.
  • Kamrava:

  "A division of labor has emerged in Iran whereby the president is running the domestic political affairs ... and the speaker ... is running military operations." ([14:08])

Potential for Deal and Market Stabilization

• The US is reportedly open to negotiating with Ghalibaf, but he is unpopular among most Iranians and unlikely to drive social reforms ([15:16]).
• Oil market stabilization may require the US to keep sanctions relaxed on both Iranian and Russian oil exports for some time ([16:07]).
  • Karen Young:

  “Russia will look like more of a stable, reliable supplier of energy needs to China ... They're likely to get that long-term prospect." ([16:40])

3. Reporting from Southern Lebanon

Correspondent: Nick Paton Walsh

Humanitarian Devastation

• Continued Israeli artillery and airstrikes have emptied southern Lebanese towns, caused mass civilian casualties, and forced over a million people to flee ([19:17]–[21:33]).
• Bridges are being destroyed to isolate southern Lebanon; local children, interviewed in the aftermath, express deepening hostility toward the US and President Trump.

Memorable Quote

• 16-year-old Muhammad, on Trump:

  “Not good.”
  “Bad. Very bad.” ([22:17])

4. Cuba’s Oil Crisis under US Blockade

Interviewee: Mark Entwistle, Former Canadian Ambassador to Cuba

Current Crisis

• US sanctions and blockade have pushed Cuba into blackouts and shortages, described as a “modern equivalent of a medieval siege” ([24:46]).
• Cuban government remains united but increasingly unpopular; nationalistic language from the US (e.g., Trump’s "taking Cuba") boosts anti-American sentiment and regime solidarity ([27:15]).

Prospects for Negotiation

• Most Cubans would welcome a normalization deal with the US, similar to the Obama-era 'reset', but would reject a return to client-state status ([28:35]).
• The Cuban leadership is pragmatic and cohesive; potential US policy shifts must consider complex domestic and diasporic politics ([31:03], [34:00]–[36:00]).

Notable Quote

• Entwistle:

  “If I learned one thing, dealing with the Cubans over decades, up close and personal, they are not communist ideologues ... they're pragmatists. They're kind of high pragmatists.” ([29:45])

5. US Economic Response to Oil and Global Instability

Host: Walter Isaacson
Guest: Jason Furman, Professor of Economic Policy at Harvard, former Obama adviser

Economic Performance under Trump

• The 2025 economy was similar to 2024; tariffs and war increased inflation but did not fundamentally alter economic structure ([38:24]).
• AI boom is a major positive driver, showing up in productivity and demand.

Tariffs, Oil, and Inflation

• Tariffs added ~0.5 percentage points to inflation; the war in Iran is likely to add another 0.5 to 1 percentage point ([46:37]).

  • Furman:

  “The tariffs have probably added half a point to the inflation rate. The war is going to add at least another half a point, probably more than a percentage point.” ([46:37])

• The effects of oil price spikes are now more muted for the US economy than in past decades due to increased domestic production and efficiency, but consumers still feel the pain at the pump ([43:37]).

• Stock market volatility has been pronounced, but broader economic impacts are less dramatic ([45:40]).

Employment, Wages, and Immigration

• Crackdowns on immigration have dramatically slowed US job growth but kept unemployment stable due to demographic changes ([48:24]).
• Despite concerns about the middle class, wage growth at lower percentiles has outpaced that at higher levels in the past decade ([50:15], [51:39]).
  • Furman:

  "Wages grew 1.4 percentage points faster than prices. ... That's good news for workers." ([47:32])

Risks and Outlook

• Economic fundamentals remain sound but could be stronger without self-inflicted policy wounds (tariffs, war).
• Public and political reactions often overstate negative changes; some “bad news bias” affects perceptions ([51:39]).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Kamrava: “... if they enter the war, America could pack up and go ... they might then be left on their own without American cover.” ([03:54])
• Karen Young: “Oil prices ... between $80 and $100 a barrel through the end of 2027.” ([05:53])
• Kamrava: “Security ... has been shattered and that now ... will increase the cost of doing business.” ([09:00])
• Entwistle on Cuba: “The intent can only be to a surrender of the Cuban state. And the situation for everyday Cubans is infinitely worse.” ([24:46])
• 16-year-old Muhammad (Lebanon): “Not good.” ([22:17])
• Furman: "The tariffs have probably added half a point to the inflation rate. The war is going to add ... probably more than a percentage point." ([46:37])
• Furman: “Wages grew 1.4 percentage points faster than prices grew.” ([47:32])
• Entwistle: “They're kind of high pragmatists. And Cuba's a nuanced and complex place ... set aside the kind of worn out Cold War narrative.” ([29:45])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [03:22]: Discussion of de-escalation, Gulf uncertainty, US unpredictability
• [05:23]: Analysis of oil shock severity, energy market disruptions
• [09:00]: Breakdown of Gulf security architecture and economic implications
• [11:50]: Asian and European impact of Gulf energy crisis
• [13:23]: Profiling Iranian parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf’s role
• [19:17]-[22:17]: Southern Lebanon devastation, civilian voices
• [24:46]: Mark Entwistle on Cuba: siege conditions and regime resilience
• [38:08]: Jason Furman on the state of the US economy under Trump
• [43:37]: Oil shock, inflation, consumer pain points, and global parallels
• [46:37]: Policy impacts (tariffs, war) on inflation and growth

Memorable Moments

• Children in Lebanon express open hostility toward President Trump ([22:17]).
• Mark Entwistle likens the US blockade of Cuba to a “medieval siege,” stressing both human cost and political consequences ([24:46]).
• Jason Furman addresses the resilience of the US economy, noting both the effects of international shocks and substantial impacts of policy decisions ([46:37]).

This episode provides a detailed, multi-perspective look at the intersection of war, geopolitics, and the global economy, with in-depth insights into regional calculations, global energy infrastructure, humanitarian suffering, and the policy levers shaping economic outcomes. The discussion maintains Amanpour's signature tone: rigorous, global, and anchored in deep expertise and firsthand reporting.