Amanpour: "Where Things Stand in Russia's War Against Ukraine"

CNN Podcasts | September 8, 2025
Host: Christiane Amanpour (with Bianna Golodryga sitting in for Amanpour)

Episode Overview

This episode offers an in-depth, multi-part exploration of the current state of global crises. The primary focus is on the escalating war between Russia and Ukraine, featuring military analyst Michael Kaufman. Additional segments examine the US–Venezuela standoff following a deadly drug interdiction raid, the fallout from the UK’s ban of a pro-Palestinian activism group, and a conversation with Stacey Abrams about the warning signs of growing autocracy in the United States.

Key Segments & Insights

1. The Ukraine War: Largest Russian Airstrikes & Battlefield Realities

Guest: Michael Kaufman, Senior Fellow, Russia Eurasia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Host: Bianna Golodryga

[00:34–14:49] Russia’s Escalation and Ukraine’s Response

• Largest Russian Aerial Attack:

  • Russia has carried out its largest aerial attack, hitting even a government building in Kyiv with a ballistic missile.
  • Civilian deaths continue to mount, including mothers and children.
  • Quote: “The Russian strike effort is widening rather than being contained or reflecting some kind of limitation on Moscow’s part.” — Michael Kaufman [03:37]

• Moscow’s Strategy:

  • Attacks focus on Ukrainian defense, industry, and energy infrastructure, as well as cities to drive out civilian populations.
  • Russian drone and missile production capabilities have scaled up “maybe 10 times compared to last year.” — Kaufman

• Ukrainian Frontlines & Morale:

  • Despite the prolonged and difficult situation, Ukrainian forces have “held the Russian military to relatively incremental gains.”
  • Russia’s material and manpower advantage is evident, with backing from China and North Korea, but Ukrainian resilience and adaptability remain strong.
  • “If we assess the results of Russian offensive efforts from spring through the summer, they are likely...lackluster...They haven't captured major cities.” — Kaufman [04:51]

• The Reality of a Prolonged Conflict:

  • Kaufman foresees the war continuing well into 2026, emphasizing the stalemate nature of current fighting.

• Manpower & Technology:

  • Ukraine faces consistent manpower challenges versus Russia’s historic advantage.
  • Offsetting this are western capital and technological innovation, with significant investment in defense and drones.
  • “I don’t think that drones and drone units alone can stabilize the frontline, but they’ve done quite a bit to stymie the Russian offensive effort.” — Kaufman [06:19]

• Economic Sanctions & Western Measures:

  • U.S. sanctions have been inconsistently applied and lack the necessary maintenance and reinvigoration. Russia’s objective appears to be stalling for time while hoping for a collapse of Western support.
  • “We've gone from one set of negotiations to another to a summit without much progress.” — Kaufman [07:47]

• Crucial Military Needs for Ukraine:

  • Essentials: Communications, protected mobility, basic equipment.
  • High priority: Air defense batteries and munitions (“you can never have enough”), as well as longer-range and precision strike capabilities.
  • “There's a significant fall off in abilities that Ukrainian forces have to hit Russian military in the rear...at the tactical level.” — Kaufman [09:14]

• Status of Western Aid:

  • Ukraine is producing much of what it needs for “day-to-day battlefield needs,” but relies on the West for major systems (e.g., HIMARS, Patriot batteries).
  • There is concern about the volume and timeliness of Western support, but Austrian defense is not expected to collapse imminently if funding continues.
  • “I think the capacity is there. I wish it was greater. And of course, I wish...we...had gotten down the path of investing in expanded defense industrial production much sooner in this war.” — Kaufman [10:48]

• U.S. and Europe’s Role:

  • The decisive factor will be sustained and clearly signaled Western commitment. The prospect of shifting U.S. focus to the Indo-Pacific raises some concern among analysts.
  • “Making a sustained commitment is critical.” — Kaufman [13:32]

Memorable Moment:

“We are in a race now between: how long can the Ukrainian military hold up, versus how long can the Russian economy hold up?”
— Kaufman [02:44]

Takeaway:
The conflict is unlikely to see a rapid or game-changing development in the near-term. Sustained Ukrainian resistance depends on both internal innovation and continued external support, while Russian strategy bets on outlasting Ukrainian resources and Western resolve.

2. U.S.–Venezuela Standoff: Major Escalation in the War on Drugs

Guest: Ivan Briscoe, Senior Director for Policy, International Crisis Group
Host: Christiane Amanpour

[15:33–24:43] U.S. Military Strike & Strategic Build-up

• Deadly Raid:

  • The U.S. conducted a strike on a Venezuelan vessel, killing 11 alleged traffickers. The action marks a shift toward direct U.S. military involvement in anti-drug operations.
  • “For the United States itself to attack a boat...without giving warning beforehand” is “a change in the model of the war on drugs.” — Ivan Briscoe [16:39]

• Largest Military Deployment in Decades:

  • U.S. has moved substantial military assets—destroyers, aircraft, troops, and a nuclear sub—into the Caribbean.

• Trump Administration’s Intentions:

  • Officially denies pursuing regime change, but rhetoric and military pressure suggest aims to destabilize Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The bounty for handing over Maduro has doubled to $50M.
  • “There is a desire to...intimidate the Venezuelan government...to encourage parts of the military to break away, turn against Maduro and maybe deliver Maduro to the U.S. Forces.” — Briscoe [18:55]

• Risk of Escalation:

  • Both sides are increasing the risk profile, with Venezuelan threats of "maximum rebellion" and U.S. show of force. The potential for accidental conflict is high.
  • “Once the military is engaged, if there is...a clash with Venezuelan forces, then the risk, of course, is that the conflict will escalate.” — Briscoe [21:26]

• Legal and Congressional Questions:

  • The Trump administration justifies military actions under the classification of drug groups as foreign terrorist organizations.
  • “We are in a very uncertain position: there is no war; there is supposedly legitimate use of self-defense...” — Briscoe [24:20]

3. Tensions in Israel and the West Bank

With: Jeremy Diamond (reporting from Jerusalem), Christiane Amanpour

[24:43–29:47] Shooting at Jerusalem Bus Stop & Gaza Conflict

• Jerusalem Bus Stop Attack:

  • Two Palestinian gunmen killed at least six at a bus stop, prompting Israeli forces to conduct raids in their West Bank village. Hamas praised but did not claim responsibility for the attack.

• Gaza escalation:

  • Four Israeli soldiers killed, as the Israeli Defense Minister promises a “massive hurricane” of military response in Gaza.
  • Trump administration presents a new proposal for ceasefire and hostage release but with no strong Israeli commitment to ending the war, complicating acceptance by Hamas.
  • “The alternative...is this...intensifying Israeli military assault on Gaza City...only in its opening stages.” — Diamond [27:49]

• On the ground:

  • Widespread destruction in Gaza; at least 40 high-rises destroyed.
  • “The comfort that I enjoy living in London is soaked in Palestinian blood.” — Protester, via Isabel Young [33:14]

4. Political Protest & Free Speech Under Fire in the UK

With: Isabel Young (on the ground in London)

[29:47–37:28] Pro-Palestinian Group Banned, Mass Arrests

• Palestine Action Ban:

  • Nearly 900 arrested in London for protesting the UK’s ban of Palestine Action under anti-terrorism laws.
  • The ban criminalizes not only activists’ actions but also public displays of support.
  • “Anyone showing any support...even holding up a sign is currently being arrested.” — Isabel Young [33:45]
  • “What Israel doing is terrorism.” — Protester [34:19]

• Debate on Definition of Terrorism:

  • John Woodcock (Lord Walney), who advised on the ban, argues their actions meet the economic disruption criteria under UK terrorism laws.
  • “There is a category of criminal behavior...which can fall under the definition of terrorism.” — Lord Walney [35:12]
  • Gray area remains, given peaceful protest and the age/demographics of many arrestees.

• Concerns for Free Speech:

  • The restrictions have ignited debate about civil liberties, protest, and overreach in anti-terror laws.

5. America’s Slide Toward Autocracy

Guest: Stacey Abrams, Democratic politician
Host: Michelle Martin, with Bianna Golodryga

[38:06–55:31] Warning Signs and the Path Forward

• Autocracy Warning:

  • Abrams says, “We are in the midst of an authoritarian regime... It's already happening.” [38:26]
  • Cites expansion of executive power, suppression of Congress and the courts, media attacks, and political violence as defining features.

• Descent by Stages:

  • Abrams lays out “ten steps” by which democracies can slide into autocracy, arguing the U.S. is at or has completed step 10:
    • Last free election
    • Executive excess
    • Neutering independent institutions
    • Media attacks
    • Erosion of government and civil society
    • Aversion to dissent (even minor protest criminalized)
    • Incentivizing and weaponizing private violence

• Political Violence & Manipulation:

  • Discusses recent examples:
    • Purged voter rolls
    • Military and ICE presence in cities
    • Political prosecutions of dissenters (“If you can go to jail for a sandwich, then how dare you protest in the streets?” — Abrams [47:20])

• Democratic Responsibility & Hope:

  • Calls on ordinary people—regardless of party—to claim agency and resist normalization of these patterns.
  • Stresses the need for accountability, civil engagement, and reclaiming basic rights to prevent “the end of voting actually making a difference.” [43:14]
  • “We have not fully fallen. We are in an authoritarian moment, but we are not so far in that we can’t find our way out. We have to recognize where we are. We then have to activate ourselves to do something about it.” — Abrams [49:08]

• Personal Motivation:

  • Abrams shares that family history fuels her faith in civic participation and democracy: “My grandfather...was born 25 years after the end of slavery. Within two generations, his granddaughter became the first Black woman in American history to be nominated to be governor of a state.” [54:32]

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “The Russian strike effort is widening rather than being contained.”

  • Michael Kaufman [03:37]

• “We are in a race now between: how long can the Ukrainian military hold up, versus how long can the Russian economy hold up?”

  • Michael Kaufman [02:44]

• “For the United States itself to attack a boat...is a change in the model of the war on drugs.”

  • Ivan Briscoe [16:39]

• “We are in the midst of an authoritarian regime... It's already happening.”

  • Stacey Abrams [38:26]

• “If you can go to jail for a sandwich, then how dare you protest in the streets?”

  • Stacey Abrams [47:20]

• “The comfort that I enjoy living in London is soaked in Palestinian blood.”

  • Pro-Palestine Action protester [33:14]

Final Thoughts

This episode threads together global flashpoints and domestic anxieties, underscoring the fragility of democratic norms amid war, protest, and power politics. Insights from experts and direct reporting from conflict and protest zones provide a sobering look at why vigilance and engagement matter on every front—from Ukrainian battlefields to the streets of London and the halls of Congress.

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