Loading summary
Transcript186 lines
- [00:00]
Shopify Advertiser
If you've shopped online, chances are you've bought from a business powered by Shopify. You know that purple shop pay button you see at checkout? The one that makes buying so incredibly easy? That's Shopify. And there's a reason so many businesses sell with it. Because Shopify makes it incredibly easy to start and run your own business. Shopify is the commerce platform behind 10% of all e commerce in the US from household names like Mattel and Gymshark to brands just getting started. Shopify's got you from the get go with beautiful ready to go templates to match your brand style. Tackle all the important tasks in one place. From inventory to payments to analytics and more. Spread your brand's word with built in marketing and email tools to find and keep new customers. And did I mention that iconic purple shop pay button that's used by millions of businesses around the world? It's why Shopify has the best converting checkout on the planet. Your customers already love it. If you want to see less cards being abandoned, it's time for you to head over to Shopify. Sign up for your $1 per month trial and start sell selling today at shopify.com batches go to shopify.comshopify.com batches.
- [01:12]
V. Spear
Rise and shine, Fever dreamers. Look alive my friends. I'm V. Spear.
- [01:15]
Sammy Sage
And I'm Sammy Sage.
- [01:16]
V. Spear
And this is American Fever Dream, presented by Betches News, the show that loves.
- [01:21]
Sammy Sage
To watch when the girls are fighting on Twitter with popcorn in hand and then loves to watch the people fighting on fighting about the phrase the girls are fighting and whether it's misogynistic, it's like you are also missing the point.
- [01:34]
V. Spear
Also during Pride Month, we're not going to recognize the girls are fighting is a non gendered term meaning. Yeah, like drag queens are fighting.
- [01:43]
Sammy Sage
Yeah. This is one of those things where it's just like, God damn. It's like if you know where the the phrase is from and if you know the tone with which the phrase is used, you know that it's not an insult to girls or women. It is just a tongue in cheek phrase. And we can have fun with phrases and we can.
- [02:05]
V. Spear
Sammy, we can't have fun. Actually, that's what I've learned from being on the Internet all this time is that no matter what you say, there will be somebody who comes in and it's like, actually that's not. I'm disgusted with you. And I'm like, okay, look, I don't know, I guess I'm not Well, you.
- [02:22]
Sammy Sage
Know, that person's probably having a lot of fun.
- [02:24]
V. Spear
They must get something out of it. I do wonder like, what is it like in the day of a person who goes around just like looking for problems with like basically like sort of like innocent people, right? Like so many times I'll see somebody get stitched and it's just like some random person who's not even a creator and they just were got brave enough to make a TikTok one day and just say something. Maybe they said like some little thing, not like a blatantly terrible thing, but like some little thing that was outdated or stupid or cringe. And people are like, I can't believe you. And I'm like, oh my God, relax. Such a fucking narc and a nerd. I'm sick of narcs and nerds.
- [03:01]
Sammy Sage
And nerds. Right? There are enough real police. We don't need self police.
- [03:05]
V. Spear
Virtue police are killing me this week.
- [03:08]
Sammy Sage
The thing is with that, I don't actually think that most people are. Those people are necessarily patrolling for something to pick on. They might just have a particular focus on something and they are feeling feisty. Their, their, their fingers are twitching, they need to make a comment. And then it feels like everyone's so annoying and everyone makes such annoying virtue signaling comments. But like it probably was just that one really annoying person who was feeling like they needed to say something. Who are they?
- [03:38]
V. Spear
Because I'm remembering now who these people are. Like when you would go to church as a kid. We're back on my cabin.
- [03:44]
Sammy Sage
I didn't do that.
- [03:45]
V. Spear
Okay, but you would go to like CCD or church camp or something and you would say like heck. Right? And then there's always that one fucking kid usually named, I'm sorry, Typically named like Rebecca or Rachel or like something like that. Like.
- [03:57]
Sammy Sage
So the Jewish names.
- [03:58]
V. Spear
No, the biblical names. Esther. It was an Esther.
- [04:02]
Sammy Sage
The Jewish name. The Jewish name.
- [04:04]
V. Spear
Okay, the Jewish Catholic. The Catholic girls with Jewish names.
- [04:07]
Sammy Sage
Okay, fine, they're haters. Yeah.
- [04:08]
V. Spear
And then they'd be like, they'd be going to father. Like, oh my God, V said this. And I'm like, please.
- [04:14]
Sammy Sage
I doubt they said V said.
- [04:16]
V. Spear
No, they'd be like Father. V said hack. Could be like father. I don't want to be the one to tell you, but V said heck and also said Jesus and I felt like it was in vain. I'm just saying. And I'm like, shut up and stop rolling your skirt, you whore. Anyway, I'm in a. I'm lit today. I haven't Slept in three days on a. Kind of the LA coverage and all. Just the crazy shit that's happening and the way the mainstream media is just, like, absolutely missing the mark on how to cover this. I'm. I'm. Yeah, I haven't slept. And now tell us because.
- [04:51]
Sammy Sage
Because. So we're recording this Monday morning, you know, with at risk of, you know, certain things developing and us having some very outdated takes, I think we should, you know, refrain from who knows what. Well, remember, who knows what might happen? But what are you seeing when you're.
- [05:07]
V. Spear
Listening to this today? Remember that we were recording this, how you felt yesterday.
- [05:12]
Sammy Sage
Yes. Try to remember how you felt yesterday morning.
- [05:15]
V. Spear
Okay. Well, my first hot take is that I trust the United States Marines to not turn weapons on civilians. And I'm saying this because one of the things that Donald Trump does constantly is try and make these grandiose statements that are half truths, half threats, and half violent fantasies. So over the weekend, he said, I've got 500 marines on standby ready to go in and tamp down the crowds and, like, take back our city and all this stuff. There are always at least 500 Marines ready to deploy. In California. At Camp pendleton, there are 42,000 Marines and sailors that are active duty. And at 29 Palms, which is the other Marine base near LA, there are 800 active duty Marines who are ready to deploy moments notice. Okay? So for him to say, I've got 500 ready to deploy made people think that he had 500 ready for this particular mission. That's not true. Then I talk to my contact in the Marines, and. And I was like, what are you guys feeling? And they're like, I swore an oath to the Constitution. That's all I'm gonna say. And I'm like, okay, so would you go in? And they're like, look, the Bernes are trained on things like riot control, crowd control, and security. Now, if we were to go in, which we are. We're not. We're probably not, right, because the JAG lawyers are saying that they're. They can't find a constitutional argument for this right now. It's. It's just not these 1992 race riots that, like, are crazy. There's nothing crazy. So they can't find the justification for it. He's like, if we were to go in, we would go in 99% without deadly weapons. We would go in with riot shields, helmets, batons, maybe, and we would be providing security to the detention centers that people are protesting outside of to ensure the free flow of vehicles to and from the center. We would be pushing back on things like if they tried to take the 101 freeway again, we would perhaps, you know, sort of kettle and push people out of these areas that are designated no protest areas. He's like, but the Marines are not gonna fucking like, come in commando style from a helicopter. They're not gonna emerge from the seas onto the shores of California and storm it like it's D day in Normandy. He's like, so the violent fantasy that's being projected by Fox News and Trump and some of MAGA is not in any way in line with the morals, ethics, or responsibility or training of the United States Marines. And that would not happen. And I was like, you know what? I trust you. So that's my Monday take. Okay? That's my Monday take. And it pisses me off because all of these major networks were like, well, he's got 500 Marines. You are inflaming tensions. You are making people in L. A Feel like they need to arm up because the Marines are going to come in and take them. Don't do that shit. Okay?
- [07:55]
Sammy Sage
Well, what I think was happening was because it was pretty calm up until Sunday night. It was actually pretty calm. People kept posting like, why isn't the mainstream media covering this? And my feeling was like, because there haven't been significant developments. So they would just kind of. So to continuously cover it would sort of feed the tension as well. And to your point about the Marines and the National Guard, which also seemed like they weren't looking to.
- [08:26]
V. Spear
Well, I made a push about that.
- [08:28]
Sammy Sage
I was like, tension.
- [08:29]
V. Spear
Every picture you're seeing of the National Guard, they are at. In a relaxed and disciplined pose. They are not arms up, okay? They are. They're holding their jackets. They're just standing there. Really? Yeah.
- [08:41]
Sammy Sage
Even the LAPD said that it was peaceful on Saturday. And that's the lapd.
- [08:45]
V. Spear
Yeah.
- [08:46]
Sammy Sage
But, but, but I think part of this is all part of the strategy. And I'm not the first person to say this. Several people have pointed this out that this is kind of what he wanted to do was find a pretext to maybe invoke the Insurrection Act. So he's doing this thing that he does where he. He knows he is going to cross some sort of. Might have to cross some sort of new Rubicon, whether it's accepting their election results, firing Jim Comey, firing Jay Powell. So he does this little thing where he toys with. He's like a cat with a mouse that he's about to like, Play with. And he's toying with it and he's like, oh, I'm not going to do it. I'll do it if it's an insurrection. I don't know. I don't know. A lot of people are saying I should do it. A lot of people were saying I already should have done it, sir. You should have invoked it. Lots of people are telling me, you know, he does that sort of playing with his friends food thing. And then I think that he is just very excited to have it, or rather Stephen Miller is very excited or both is very excited to have an excuse to grab onto something. And what, what concerns me is that some of these protests look, some of the protestors look a bit inorganic to me. I simply do not believe that immigrants rights groups are going to be standing on top of cars ordering waymos for the sake of burning them and carrying Mexican flags and like motorcycling them around. Like, I'm sorry, that is not an American protester. And we've seen this so many times. And I do think that eventually we're going to look back on several of these protests from this five year period and realize that a great deal of that maybe even 10 year period was inorganic.
- [10:23]
V. Spear
Well, like the guy who was throwing the rocks at the cars. And then you, you'll see the video all over TikTok of this man throwing rocks at the cars. But what you don't see is that was about three seconds and then other protesters trying to make that person not throw rocks at the cars.
- [10:36]
Sammy Sage
So right, this, protesters try to, yes.
- [10:39]
V. Spear
Every, everybody's got a narrative. But you're in Los Angeles, the people are protesting these ice kidnappings and sweeps. Then you've got the jeggings, Chuck's crew, I'm calling them, the like self made Amazon agents who are out there and they are, they're amped up.
- [10:55]
Charlotte Howard
Up.
- [10:56]
V. Spear
These people have a fantasy again. They have a fantasy. They don't have training or discipline and they have a fantasy of creating violence or being an authority or getting to punch somebody or shoot somebody. The fact that they shot that Australian reporter who was holding a microphone with a professional camera in front of her in the leg from close range. That is not a disciplined officer. That's not somebody who came from LAPD sheriff's office or the, or the National Guard. That's somebody who's like some yahoo in the middle who wants to do something. They want to do something. So I agree, I think it's, I'm really proud of LA for holding it down. To the level that they have, and we'll see what happens. Today there's going to be. It's Monday, so today there are demonstrations demanding the release of David Huerta, who is the president of the largest labor union, seiu. And he was picked up in one of these sweeps on Friday. He was injured while he was in detention, and he's going to see a judge today. So that's going to be interesting. I think the release of David Huerta is going to be a really galvanizing moment for the crowd. And then we also have. The city of Glacier. Glendale canceled their ICE detention center contract. They were like, look, we've been running the center since 2007. We're actually proud of this center. We offered phone calls, food. You could come in and you could inspect it. You could do whatever. But public perception shows that we don't want this anymore, that this is not a trustworthy thing. And Glendale is one of the safest cities in America. It's like a suburb of Los Angeles. It's just right there. And so they're like, look, we just canceled our ICE contract. Gavin Newsom, who was pissing me off, but he has his good moments. It's like, Trump, just come and arrest me. You want to do a big show? You want. You need a little. You need a little red meat for maga. Come arrest me and leave everybody alone. Like, this is stupid. And I think that's the kind of stuff that we need to be doing, which is calling out how absolutely just deranged the stable geniuses and how unlikely it is that his threats will come true.
- [12:51]
Sammy Sage
States rights, y' all.
- [12:52]
V. Spear
States rights, y' all.
- [13:00]
Sammy Sage
V, can I tell you something I was thinking about this weekend?
- [13:02]
V. Spear
I would love that.
- [13:03]
Sammy Sage
So you know how we always are talking shit about the Democrats?
- [13:06]
V. Spear
Yes.
- [13:07]
Sammy Sage
I think we should formalize it into a segment. I'm gonna call it the Democrats Mess Tracker. But today, I actually have some constructive advice for them, because we keep giving criticism and we keep talking. And I get it. We're frustrated. Everyone's frustrated. And I keep thinking back to that conversation about how that pollster surveyed focus groups about how they perceive the political parties and what animals they compare them to.
- [13:31]
V. Spear
Oh, right. Yeah.
- [13:32]
Sammy Sage
So instead of coming up with shitty animals they could be, I wanted to come up with a suggestion for them, and I have. I have an answer. I think that the Democrats should reincarnate themselves as dogs, and here's why. Not all dogs have these good qualities, but most people associate dogs with loyalty, compassion, energy, trainability, responsiveness to Positive and negative feedback, which is how elected representatives should be in a democracy. You also. Democrats get a lot of shit for being, like, too smart or too out of touch or too academic. But the thing is, with a dog, you don't want a dumb dog. No one prefers a dumb dog. They want an intelligent dog because they make you look like an idiot when you have a dumb dog. They're peeing all over your. Your carpet. They're vaping during a community theater production of Beetlejuice. You don't want to reward that behavior.
- [14:28]
V. Spear
We don't.
- [14:29]
Sammy Sage
Dogs are also quite a reciprocal animal.
- [14:32]
V. Spear
Snuggles.
- [14:33]
Sammy Sage
You know, they don't just. They don't just come around during election season when they want your votes. They're with you all the time. Exactly.
- [14:39]
V. Spear
At the grocery store, on the airplane, with their fake emotional support certificates.
- [14:46]
Sammy Sage
Yes. And I. Okay, at first I thought, like, they should be something because the Republicans are tigers, lions and bears.
- [14:53]
V. Spear
Okay.
- [14:53]
Sammy Sage
The Democrats were the deer in headlights.
- [14:56]
V. Spear
Yeah.
- [14:57]
Sammy Sage
I think that maybe a more community oriented animal could have. Could be better.
- [15:02]
V. Spear
Yeah.
- [15:03]
Sammy Sage
Because. So first I was thinking, like, you know, a flock of birds migrating in a V or a school of fish, but that all feels not mammalian enough. You know what I mean? Like, we need them to be animals. Yeah, we need them to be animals. But I do think a key factor in Democrats as dogs is that there's a lot of variety between breeds. And you have different dogs that have good qualities that draw different types of people, and variance between dogs is seen as a good thing. No one's like, oh, I only want my dogs to be. Only want all dogs to be golden retrievers. Well. And act the same way. I mean, some might. But what would be the main dog?
- [15:38]
V. Spear
What do you think would be the main dog of the Democrats?
- [15:41]
Sammy Sage
Well, I think we're going to find out who wins the primary.
- [15:44]
V. Spear
Oh, I see.
- [15:45]
Sammy Sage
Okay. I. I kind of think like a bulldog.
- [15:48]
V. Spear
Well, that's. See, Yale's mascot is a bulldog.
- [15:52]
Sammy Sage
Roslyn high school's mascot was a bull.
- [15:53]
V. Spear
See, they represent. Yeah. Like, toughness, but intelligence for sure. What if. What about, like, I have dachshunds. You want a dachshund Democrat? I mean, that's.
- [16:02]
Sammy Sage
Maybe you want a dachshund running oversight or something. But, you know, maybe you don't want to Docs as the president. Maybe you want a dachshund vice president.
- [16:10]
V. Spear
Well, no, I think you want a dachshund secretary of state, maybe. And then I would also say, I think for vice president. King Charles, Cavalier Spaniel.
- [16:19]
Sammy Sage
I Do think King Charles Cavalier Spaniel is a very Republican coded dog, which does make the moderates feel safe.
- [16:26]
V. Spear
So for the centrists, we have King Charles Cavalier Spaniel.
- [16:30]
Sammy Sage
Exactly. And then. But isn't that great? You've got so many. Maybe a golden retriever. No, you need a. The president needs to be a bigger dog, large dog. So that Yorkie go on a plane.
- [16:40]
V. Spear
Yorkie could be like Secretary of Homeland Security. I feel like.
- [16:44]
Sammy Sage
No, no, no, no, no. Okay.
- [16:47]
V. Spear
I know.
- [16:48]
Sammy Sage
Rottweiler's got to be like the Secretary of Defense or something.
- [16:51]
V. Spear
Oh, there we go. Yes. Okay.
- [16:53]
Sammy Sage
But you see, there's. There's beauty in all the different dogs. And you don't feel like any of those dogs are going to do a shitty job at governing or responding to you. Because most dogs are trainable, except for dumb dogs, which we would.
- [17:08]
V. Spear
We would keep them at home to be little yard dogs.
- [17:12]
Sammy Sage
Yes. The other thing is those can be the, you know, rank and file house members. The thing is, dogs also travel in a pack with a clear leader who they listen to. And that leader is protective. That leader takes up the back. That leader makes sure that they're all set and strong.
- [17:29]
V. Spear
Like an Australian shepherd dog. Yes. A herder. Keeping everybody together. That would be like the whip. The majority whip would be like the Aussie. This is working out, Sammy. I love this dream. Also. Just think of the AI Art we could make.
- [17:45]
Sammy Sage
Yeah. And think about.
- [17:46]
V. Spear
We are not making AI Art.
- [17:47]
Sammy Sage
You know what else is beautiful? This cost me $0 to come up with. I did not have to spend $20 million to ask men what they think of it. I came up with it in the shower.
- [17:57]
V. Spear
We gotta stop asking men what they think. They don't know what they think. We should tell them what they think. You know what? Some of the best men in my life. Right. My dad and. And basically my dad. If you want to ask my dad anything, what does he say? Oh, I don't know. What your mom think. Men want women to tell them what to think. Why aren't we doing that in the government? We shouldn't be asking them what they think. We should be saying, hey, man, how about this? How about chicken salad for dinner tonight? You love that? I'll make it for you. You just have to enjoy it.
- [18:29]
Sammy Sage
They want women, who they are legally bound to by blood or marriage to tell them what to think. But they don't. But they only want it in a subtle way. They don't want to be instructed what to think. They want to be coddled into thinking and they definitely don't want to be told what to think by someone online.
- [18:46]
V. Spear
True. It reminds me of that musical number from my new favorite musical stuffs called Let Mother Vote. And it's, it's a great song. Anyway, go listen to that and then we'll be back with a cool guest.
- [18:59]
Sammy Sage
I just want to add one, one more thing. Donald Trump famously hates dogs. So it all kind of cannot trust.
- [19:04]
V. Spear
A man who doesn't like dogs.
- [19:05]
Sammy Sage
Cannot you? Cannot.
- [19:06]
V. Spear
Nope.
- [19:07]
Sammy Sage
So, all right, we'll be back and we are going to bring out a very special guest, Charlotte Howard, the executive editor of the Economist and co hosts of the Checks and Balances podcast. See you in a minute.
- [19:23]
V. Spear
Welcome back. We are back with a new special friend, Sammy.
- [19:27]
Sammy Sage
Tell us about our friend Charlotte Howard, the executive editor of the Economist and the co host of the Checks and Balance podcast. And let me say, I watch you quite a bit on that mainstream media talking, you know, talking your expertise. You are just, you know, one of my guides these days because the economic situation is unprecedented. I think it's fair to say it.
- [19:48]
Charlotte Howard
Is a very weird time to be grounded in reality while the people who are guiding economic policy seem to be on some other planet. But yes.
- [19:58]
Sammy Sage
So can you just tell us, what do you think is the most strange, unprecedented, anomalous thing that this, that this administration is doing that is really striking to you as someone who writes about economic news?
- [20:13]
Charlotte Howard
Well, I think what's strange and not unpredictable, though, I mean, everything with the Trump administration is both expected and shocking in this weird blend of things. But politicians for decades have been talking about manufacturing and talking about places that have been left behind and how they're going to help places that have been left behind. And it hasn't really been paired with policy. It's always been rhetorical, not based in policy. And so what you see now from the Trump administration is a really dramatic effort to reshape the American economy in their telling in real time very, very quickly. And I think that some of the problems that the Trump administration has pointed out are real problems. You know, there are people in the United States, and I spent the early part of my career based in the Midwest and covering parts of the Midwest, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, parts of the farm belt as well. There are places that do need to be helped and policy needs to evolve. But I think about the Trump administration's policy kind of like looking at a car and having a flat tire and then just smashing in all the windows as a way to fix it. It doesn't make sense. So having across the Board tariffs would hurt American manufacturers. The enormous amount of uncertainty that is brought by imposing deadlines, delaying deadlines, coming up with sort of empty deals, that uncertainty is something that stifles investment as opposed to promoting it. And at the same time, the Trump administration is passing, is advancing this extraordinarily irresponsible set of fiscal policies that would put America deeper in debt. And so I can talk more about how those two things are connected. But essentially the Trump administration is experimenting on a huge scale with America's economy in a way that actually does damage to, you know, not just the stock market and investors, but to ordinary Americans too.
- [22:09]
V. Spear
Can I point out something about manufacturing from like my little town's point of view? Right. So I grew up in this town, Derby, Connecticut, and it's right on the Housatonic River. And there we used to have bfgoodrich, we had inline plastics, we had the stained glass factory, we had the Wiffle ball factory. All the Wiffle balls in America come from my hometown. We had all this stuff, right? And then slowly manufacturing obviously shut down. These were abandoned buildings. And now the way that this town has been revitalizing is to get rid of all those factories or put breweries into those factories or cool ass restaurants or like really cool mixed use housing in office buildings, right? This idea of like bringing back manufacturing, I just don't see Youngstown, Ohio or Derby, Connecticut building shit anymore. Like I don't see them building roller skates anymore. Right? That's what my great grandpa did. He was like one of the roller skate builders in Torrington. We're not going to do that because the American dollar has made it nearly impossible to manufacture things domestically because it's so expensive to do it. And on top of that, a lot of these factories that he says he wants to revive aren't even useful anymore. They've become wedding venues or breweries or they've straight up been bulldozed down. So when I hear people talk about like, oh, I'm going to revitalize manufacturing, I'm like, where? Where are you going to put it? Like where? What house are you going to reopen now? During the pandemic in Rochester, we reopened one of the flour mills because there was no flour anywhere. But that was like a temporary kind of like hokey hometown thing to do for a quick second. Can he revitalize manufacturing the way that people like the boomers remember their grandparents working in?
- [23:52]
Charlotte Howard
Well, I think that that story that you told is actually really illustrative of why it is that manufacturing remains at the Heart economic discussion, because it's not just about manufacturing. It's about manufacturing as a symbol of economic security for the middle class. Right. So people talk about manufacturing as the kind of key to bringing back a way of life and a type of economic security that they used to have, no longer have. So all across the country, you know, there are places that just have abandoned factories. There aren't enough people there to build the kind of breweries that you're, you know, siting in Connecticut. And so there is a legitimate debate to be had about how you help those kind of places move Forward into the 21st century. The truth is that the type of manufacturing, if any manufacturing that will come back has, is, has a lot of automation. So people are investing in factories that have really advanced robotics to help do this with a smaller workforce. And it's not going to be at a scale. That is going to be a game changer for the millions of people who voted for President Trump. Right. And so I think it's a myth and it's a lie to say that we're going to bring manufacturing back at scale that will make a difference to this enormous cohort of people. And in the meantime, the chaos that you're unleashing on the economy through again, companies that don't know where to invest, how to invest, because the policy is always changing. Real higher prices for American consumers as the tariffs are imposed and they. And they raise the cost of basic goods. You know, inflation helped get Donald Trump elected, but it may really, you know, there's a real risk of it rising while he's in the White House. So it's an incoherent set of policies, I think.
- [25:42]
Sammy Sage
How do you think that the constant back and forth with what the policy will be, the we're going to impose the tariffs now there's a pause now we're going to negotiate. How do you think that impacts the actual reactions with our trading partners and the people in our own government and then obviously, American consumers? Because my real concern is not just that he imposed these crazy tariffs, it's that he then walked them back and then made deals that aren't really deals. And if I'm on the other side of that trade anywhere else in the world, my thought is not so much that I don't want to trade with America necessarily because of Trump. I don't want to trade with America because they can't get their shit together and just pick a lane of what they're going to do. And that's what seems so dangerous.
- [26:31]
Charlotte Howard
Well, I think it's two parts. Right. And I agree with you. So on the one hand, for a company sitting, you know, making decisions about where to put their investments, you can't plan if you don't know what the policy is. So that's one. And so then you have companies that are delaying investment because they don't know what the policy is. Now, the second part of what you said has to do with America's trading partners. How do they react to this? And you see this happening already, which is that they're making contingency plans. So no one is giving up on the American market. We have an enormous economy, obviously, and consumers who buy the world's goods. But there is increasing activity between other trading partners. So, you know, looking to other opportunities because the US Is less stable as a partner. And what that does is, I think, diminish America's role and influence economically, which is not good, which is bad for Americans.
- [27:24]
Sammy Sage
Well, how much of Americans economic success do you think has been sort of default by that influence that maybe people don't see that that was actually sort of critical to how wealthy some people in this country have become?
- [27:39]
Charlotte Howard
Well, I think that if you look, you know, before the election, the weird thing about the campaign rhetoric from the Trump administration versus the economic reality is that in the lead up to November, America's economy was the envy of the world's. We were outperforming every single other rich country. And so this idea that America was being left behind and being laughed at and all that was just a fiction. Okay, and so now you go from that. And we had an economist cover back in October that a colleague of mine wrote a special report about why America's economy was doing so well. I encourage people to go back and read that. It had a wad of dollars like as a rocket ship going into space. And then by the spring, we had a cover story with Donald Trump standing on a, a wad of cash with a thing of gasoline, like, about to set it on fire with the new fiscal outlook. And so you take one thing and then you just transform it into something completely different. And to bring it back to the budget, which I'm fascinated by in the way that we can talk more about that. It's like watching a Real Housewives show between Musk and Donald Trump. But they are doing something with that budget, which is to dramatically expand the national debt, which America already was on a really uneven fiscal footing. And so that raises the requirement that we continue to borrow money. And at the same time, we're making America less Reliable as a borrower. And so, in a way, that was never the case before. You see trust declining in America as a place for foreigners to put their capital through buying US Government debt. And you see that in the value of the dollar. You see that in the performance of the bond market. And so you have these two things. One, where you make it more essential that America borrow money, and two, you're doing things that make the world say, thanks, but no thanks.
- [29:30]
V. Spear
How fucked are we? How fucked are we? Just, like, straight up.
- [29:35]
Sammy Sage
So I wear scale of 1 to.
- [29:37]
Charlotte Howard
10, scale of 1 to 10 on fuckery. I think that I'm weirdly an optimist, because I think that there are enough people who.
- [29:48]
Sammy Sage
On what timescale are you an optimist?
- [29:51]
Charlotte Howard
So I think that Trump is going to. I think that Republicans will get hammered in the midterms for all the obvious reasons. And part of that is playing out again with the budget bill, where you have a Republican constituency that is now built on the working class, but they are passing policies that harm them, whether it's Medicaid cuts or rising inflation. So I don't see how that isn't a winning electoral strategy for the Republican Party. I think at some point there will be Republicans. I'm not sure there'll be the current Republicans in Congress, but at some point Republicans will realize that continuing to just fall in line behind President Trump is not something that will sustain them forever. I mean, the degree to which Congress is just a collection of absolute invertebrates in the past six months has been so striking. Right? I mean, like, Trump is just taking responsibilities from them that are not rightly his, and they just say, okay, you know, go for it. Yes, sir. And I think at some point there will be a set of politicians who, you know, look around and not because necessarily they think it's the right thing as a matter of policy, but they think it's the right thing politically. I have no faith that people make decisions only on what's good policy. It's just about what's good politics, Right? So I think at some point that calculus will change, and that will be for the good of the rest of us.
- [31:17]
Sammy Sage
That's my question. When it comes to the deficit hawks in the Senate, particularly the Republicans, who, it feels like that's one of those things that people kind of always bring up, but the question of how much it actually matters to them or means to them, they always seem to just kind of vote in the way that will ultimately increase the deficit anyway. Can you explain in layman's terms why is the deficit being high a bad thing for normal people? And is this just kind of like a political football that people bring out when it's convenient, or if they don't, if they want to extract concessions, like what is the actual implication or for taxpayers, when this debt balloons to the size that this bill would make it balloon to?
- [32:04]
Charlotte Howard
There's so many ways I could answer that question, but I'll break it down into two parts. One short term and one short to medium term. America is spending more on interest payments for its debt than it spends on defense. So just think about that for a second. America's entire, you know, military complex with all of the things we're doing all over the world, with rising threats in dealing with China, the threat of China seizing Taiwan, you know, potential, always potential escalation in the Middle east, an aggressive Russia. I mean, just think about all the things that we're doing. So more than everything we spend on that, we spend on, you know, paying down our interest payments on debt. And so it just becomes.
- [32:48]
Sammy Sage
So it's like for an average person, it's like if they had such a high credit card balance that their interest charges were higher than the balance itself, is that equivalent?
- [32:59]
Charlotte Howard
It's more like their payments on interest were big, were larger than their payments on their mortgage. Like, you know, it was more expensive for them to pay interest on their credit card payments than it would be to buy, you know, a house, let's say. Okay, to break it down in that way. And then the other, the other threat, which is not one that anyone would have even considered in the realm of possibility, is that America actually could not be able to service its debt if people, other countries, other investors, buyers, stop buying American debt. So if you think about the scale of problems that politicians normally deal with, like Covid, like the financial crisis, the response to those problems was to spend money. So you pass a really big bill, you try to juice up the economy, we're going to spend money on this, we're going to spend money on that, we're going to dole out cash, etc. That's easy for politicians to do. The type of price that's I'm describing would require them to cut. How do you cut on a massive scale? Congress is bad at that. Really, really bad. Okay? And it would cause enormous pain for the American people who've come to rely on different programs. So, you know, one, debt is becoming more expensive. Two, neither the political nor economic system are equipped to deal with actual, an actual fiscal crisis.
- [34:26]
Sammy Sage
So what, what would happen if they had to deal with it.
- [34:29]
Charlotte Howard
Well, this is the. This kind of depressing talk has stunned you both into silence. What would happen? It would be bad. It would be bad. And so therefore, like, like, like, what would.
- [34:41]
Sammy Sage
What would someone, you know, a mom in Tennessee experience if that happens?
- [34:48]
Charlotte Howard
They would experience programs on which they have come to depend being slashed in a more dramatic way than they had ever considered. So already, you know, take an example in the current budget bill, of a cut that they're considering. But this would be on a much bigger scale if there was a real fiscal crisis. But in order to pay for Trump's tax cuts, the extension of the tax cuts that he passed in 2017, there are all kinds of measures in there that would be cut. One of them is to Medicaid. So Obamacare, I was covering health care back when Obamacare was being rolled out, and you had this thing where all states were deciding, do we take advantage of this amazing offer to expand Medicaid to a greater share of our population? Medicaid being the program for the poor. And so they raised the income limits, and the federal government said, we'll help you state X pay for this expansion in health care. And 40 states took up that offer, have since taken up that offer. And guess what? Republican states, because this is something that their constituents want, and the current budget bill would dramatically shrink that. Okay, so it would go back in a dramatic way, so fewer people would have health insurance coverage through Medicaid, this federal state program. Now, if there was a real fiscal crisis, you can imagine that, but on.
- [36:02]
V. Spear
Steroids, at what point could it be so terrible that it can't exist? Or, you know, like, would they. Not everybody could be kicked off their mortgage and be homeless. Not everybody could be turned away from every hospital. At some point, they'd have to be like, like what? What would fit? Obviously, people would die. Obviously, there'd be horrible hunger and all kinds of terrible things. But at what point, how bad, I guess, would it get? Like, is there another country that went through something like this that we could look to and say, hey, we don't want to be like that. Is it like Russia? Is it Hungary? Like, they have authoritarian leadership that has. But I guess they didn't financially bankrupt the people with the authoritarianism.
- [36:42]
Charlotte Howard
I would say, I mean, it is helpful to be this nihilistic, and it's not in some ways, right? So, I mean, yeah, we don't want to be Argentina and, you know, have a total runaway inflation or have a government that, you know, is plainly incompetent. And no one wants to lend to. Right. So I don't think this is the most likely outcome, but the Trump administration is toying with it in a way that would have previously been completely unfathomable, unthinkable, completely unthinkable.
- [37:16]
V. Spear
I mean, the man bankrupted a casino, so I'm not fucking surprised.
- [37:19]
Charlotte Howard
Right.
- [37:19]
V. Spear
But maybe we move on to a different topic. Okay, so instead of being wrapped up in the chaos of this fucking madman, as we continue to be, earlier in the program, we were talking about what's going on in la, and I was saying that Trump lies so astronomically by telling half truths about, like, the, the way that the military works or who's paying for all of these ice sweeps and whatnot. What's your take on the situation in Los Angeles right now?
- [37:51]
Charlotte Howard
So I think in Trump's second term, his agenda from the beginning was to just go around and picking as many fights as he could to test the limits of his power and expand it. And so you have seen this in all kinds of arenas. So with Congress, Congress said, you know, sure, go ahead, do what you want to do. Right. With the courts, there are different fights that are playing out at a different pace. Right. You have, in some instances, courts pushing back. There are a number of cases that are going to escalate, I think, to the Supreme Court. In his war with universities, again, some capitulation, but Harvard really fighting back. Yeah, Harvard, same with law firms. Right. And so I think that his agenda here is kind of mixed in terms of this expansion of power and these fights that he's picking. But where it was always clear that there was the greatest potential for real incendiary action was with his fights with cities. And these are cities and states that are run by Democrats throughout his political life since, you know, as a born and bred New Yorker himself. Right. But he has cast these cities as cesspools and war zones and places that are misrun. But he also has a lot of pride in, you know, being the enforcer that is going to do good for these cities. And I spent seven hours with him in Madison Square Garden. I'm not sure if either of you were there when he did his rally in New York. And it was this amazing thing because he won an enormous share of New York. Right. I mean, it was over a quarter of the population in Queens voted for him. The other two, you know, unthinkable shares of voters in the Bronx.
- [39:27]
Sammy Sage
I went to a rally on Long island and they were so pumped.
- [39:30]
Charlotte Howard
Yeah.
- [39:30]
Sammy Sage
Because no one ever comes here. But they were. It was wild.
- [39:34]
Charlotte Howard
I mean, well, Long island has a lot of MAGA sections of it for sure as well. But I think here with cities, you know, among all these fights that he's picked with courts, universities, law firms, those basically have played out on paper, Right? But with cities, it's different because you can have, you know, normal people who go out into the street and can get worked up together. And then you have Trump now coming in and taunting, you know, actively taunting, and he's looking for this fight. And I think that it will. We can talk about immigration policy and the degree to which his plan for immigration is or is not, you know, at all reasonable. But we should see this for what it is, which is him picking a fight and looking to play the role of enforcer in kind of a theatrical way. But that has really dangerous implications. I think one of the things that's fascinating about the clashes in LA is the language from Stephen Miller, who's an immigration hawk within Trump's administration. And he's talking about this as an invasion and an insurrection. Right. And I think this points to a problem for Democrats. So Democrats have wanted to bill Trump as the danger to America. And Trump wants to say the danger to America is migrants and hella cities and China. But America's really under attack. And I think the Democrats get so focused, rightly, on the danger that Trump poses to the country through various acts, as we've discussed, that they don't cast themselves as the party that's going to fix anything. Like immigration as a problem is a problem that Democrats need to deal with. And I think Biden learned that way too late. China is a problem that Democrats need to deal with America's relationship with China. So you could go on and on down the list. And I think Trump's skill is creating this vortex where Democrats can't do anything except respond to him and Democrats task now going into the midterms and going into the next presidential election is how do we come up with a coherent set of policies that are not too complicated, that explain why we are the grownups in the room and can help this country work better, rather than it just being a question of Trump is the enemy or from Trump's. You know, Trump's argument in the converse is that we're being invaded and under. Under attack. You know, so it's about reframing this discussion about danger. And Democrats haven't figured out how to do that.
- [42:05]
V. Spear
That's a hot tip. They should.
- [42:07]
Sammy Sage
Have you seen any signs where that's.
- [42:09]
Charlotte Howard
Worked, where that's worked. I think that there are some Democrats, and I'll point to the one, because I don't want to curse other Democrats by mentioning them, but I think the Jared Polis in Colorado, he's just a guy who's running a state and doing it in a practical, grown up way. And I think that's where Democrats need to shine, that this is all a circus and it's bad for America and it's not just theater. It is having real damage and you need to have grownups running the country.
- [42:43]
V. Spear
We gotta go back to calling them weird. It was working for Tim Walls, I think, and it wasn't the calling them weird. That was the thing. It was the idea that this sort of like, dad like, figure was. Would look at something they did and be like, no, that's not cool, boys, that we don't want to act like that. And it made sense. Right. So I agree.
- [42:59]
Sammy Sage
I think it's that the Democrats channeled the way people actually felt about something for a second in the words that people actually feel in their heads. And that's quite rare because they're usually, like, having the thought and then translating it through the consultant machine and then delivering it maybe at a place no one's going to see and no one thinks they do anything. But when you just say what you think, it's very refreshing.
- [43:22]
Charlotte Howard
Well, that's what Trump does, by the way. I mean, his main appeal is that he's authentic. I hear. I hear that he's authentic. So, yeah, great.
- [43:31]
Sammy Sage
He is authentic in a weird way. Despite lying, he's an authentic liar.
- [43:37]
V. Spear
Oh, man. Where's Melania? That's what I need to know. What, what's the cost?
- [43:40]
Charlotte Howard
Did you read her book? Did you read her book?
- [43:43]
V. Spear
I did not read her.
- [43:43]
Charlotte Howard
I'm going to send you. I wrote a review of her book because I knew it would give me a lot of pleasure to do so.
- [43:49]
Sammy Sage
Oh, I'll read your review.
- [43:50]
V. Spear
Okay.
- [43:51]
Sammy Sage
I want to hear you.
- [43:52]
Charlotte Howard
Yeah, it was an amazing. I mean, as someone who. I'm a writer, that's my job is to write words. To have that many words convey such little meaning actually is like, really amazing as a feat. It's an amazing. I mean, it had some classic lines. Just some classic lines. Like driving is like a parody, right? Yeah, well, it's not. It's unintentional parody, which is the best form of political memoir.
- [44:24]
V. Spear
Like, what were some of her hot takes?
- [44:26]
Charlotte Howard
I mean, she goes back and forth between. You know, she's quite clear on her love for Baron which is sweet. I mean.
- [44:32]
V. Spear
Yes.
- [44:33]
Charlotte Howard
And she talks. Everything is in soft focus, kind of like her photographs. So she'll talk about 2020 and George Floyd, but never mention him. Right. Or she will give little pearls of wisdom that you read them once and it seems like it makes sense, but then you read them again and it just dissolves into thin air. Did you see her entrance at the rnc where she didn't say anything, but.
- [45:01]
V. Spear
It was like the classical music?
- [45:03]
Charlotte Howard
Yes.
- [45:04]
V. Spear
I actually thought that was, well, sound stage.
- [45:06]
Charlotte Howard
It was. It was like an ice dancer.
- [45:09]
V. Spear
It was.
- [45:09]
Charlotte Howard
The whole arena. I was there. The whole ring arena was twinkling. I mean, she looked amazing.
- [45:14]
V. Spear
She does.
- [45:16]
Charlotte Howard
And, yeah, she hates him, though.
- [45:19]
V. Spear
And I love that.
- [45:21]
Sammy Sage
But it works. They're kind of soulmates in a way.
- [45:23]
V. Spear
You think so?
- [45:24]
Sammy Sage
I kind of do. Like, think how well this all works for everybody involved. She gets whatever she wants.
- [45:30]
V. Spear
That's true. Hey, girls. Got to eat, like my grandma says. Last quick fire question. What's up with the Saudis and the Qatari money? That freak you out?
- [45:40]
Charlotte Howard
You mean as a matter of corruption?
- [45:42]
V. Spear
Yeah. Now he's asking Qatar to give him money to fix up the Kennedy center and add some more gold decor in there or something.
- [45:48]
Charlotte Howard
I think all of that pales in comparison to his crypto stuff.
- [45:52]
V. Spear
Oh, so what's the crypto stuff? I see. I don't have money, so I don't worry about things like crypto or the stock market.
- [45:58]
Charlotte Howard
It's not about whether you're in crypto. It's about. Yeah, the scale.
- [46:02]
Sammy Sage
Whether that destroys the whole.
- [46:03]
Charlotte Howard
At which he can enrich himself and his family through their investments in crypto. We had a really great cover on this by my colleague Mike Bird a few weeks ago that I would encourage people to go back and read. And our podcast, Checks and Balance, did a podcast on it, too. But the. It used to be that corruption was about giving money to secure power for presidents. You'd give. You're trying to get access to them by making sure that they're reelected. And what's weird about crypto is it's so much more flagrant than that, is that you can invest in crypto or, you know, he can. Actually, I think it was. I don't want to misspeak. It was. I think it was Abu Dhabi. There's a new vehicle that includes some of the Trump family's crypto holdings, but it's not about helping him secure power. It's just about making them really rich. So you're kind of breaking down that middleman and So I think the scale at which Trump's holdings, I mean, his crypto holdings, are way bigger than all of his other assets, according to my colleague's analysis. So that's where I think people. It's a little more complicated than like, oh, the Qataris bought a plane. But it's worth diving into because the nature of how people are trying to buy influence with the Trump administration through some of these deals is fascinating.
- [47:33]
Sammy Sage
Yeah, I see it as very much like it's not the plane itself or any one particular payment that's made to him. It's the fact that he's open and his family is open for all these payments all the time from anyone who will, who will give them to them. And that is so much more of a danger to have going on for the next four years at least.
- [47:54]
V. Spear
But aren't people losing money on the Trump meme coins and stuff? Or. That's like, that's the grip for the average person and that's separate from the big boy game he's playing with, like, other people.
- [48:03]
Charlotte Howard
Well, he's put all these people in place of financial regulators that are from the crypto industry. Right. So he has the power through regulation to help the crypto industry grow. And by doing so, he raises the value of his own. I do think there are some politicians, you know, governors, Governor polis in Colorado, you know, there are people around who are sane people who are doing sane things. And as I don't want to name too many of them, because as soon as I do, they announce that they're retiring. Like, this is a thing that happens.
- [48:32]
V. Spear
Don't.
- [48:32]
Charlotte Howard
No, I know. I'm not going to tell you who I like. Normal people say, I'm fed up with this, or, you know, they're challenged from a MAGA person. But I do think they're.
- [48:41]
Sammy Sage
Or they want to go spend time with their grandkids. What a crazy idea.
- [48:44]
Charlotte Howard
But there are reasonable people who are, I think, grownups who could help right the ship. It just is looking a little choppy.
- [48:52]
V. Spear
Could the next president just cancel crypto and bankrupt Trump?
- [48:56]
Charlotte Howard
No, I don't think you want to cancel it. I mean, you don't want to, like, kill an industry altogether. You just don't want to have blatant conflicts of interest between the people who financially benefit and the people who are sending the policy.
- [49:08]
Sammy Sage
And just, just one more quick thing on crypto. Do you. How do you think they should attempt to regulate it, or do you think it's not regulatable and it should just be considered a Security.
- [49:18]
Charlotte Howard
Well, if it was considered a security, it would be. You could regulate it. So you could have rules that are, you know, along the suite of financial regulation. You could have rules that are pretty sensible that have to do with, you know, rules around banks and crypto and again, you know, securities rules as applied to crypto. But. And there is some legislation that is not actually totally bonkers, Right. That members of both parties are interested in. It's just Trump has actually made his own case harder because he's turned this into an industry that seems to be entirely entangled with his own personal, you know, political and financial interests. And so then it becomes, you know, we don't have to talk about the merits of crypto in general, but it becomes more soiled. I mean, I do think that Trump, who himself voiced skepticism of crypto just a few years ago, it is the ultimate Trump vehicle, right? Because he was never that successful. I mean, he had medium success as a real estate developer, right? But it's not like he was one of America's all time great businessmen, but he, his singular talent is declaring things to be true and then convincing people that they are true. Right. And so that's kind of what crypto is about. Like you say it has value with.
- [50:35]
V. Spear
The nft, with saying that the Marines or commandos are going to drop into LA out of helicopters. Like it's all this stuff that's not true until other people believe it and make it true for them. So annoying.
- [50:46]
Sammy Sage
Well, Trump is crypto.
- [50:48]
V. Spear
Trump is crypto. Thank you for being here and sharing with us this slightly depressing episode, but educational. We need to know about these things, right? And your show, admittedly much more positive. We're just in a little weird. I was saying earlier, my niece gets red frown faces or green smile faces at school every single day. And when she gets like three red faces, she decides, well, I'm just gonna be bad for the whole day because it's over now. And that's how I feel about today. We started by covering like the LA stuff and like all of this horrible stuff. And now we're kind of like, okay, today's episode is Red Frowns, but we had to know about it. But your show has a lot of green smiles. Tell us about your show and where people can find you.
- [51:31]
Charlotte Howard
Our show has green smiles. I don't know that anyone has ever described it that way, but I'm gonna take it. My show is called Checks and Balance. It's a weekly show. It comes out on Friday. It's with two of my colleagues from the economist John Prudo and Idris Calhoun. Each week we talk one about one issue in more detail so that we can actually discuss it as opposed to just saying a few quick things and moving on to the next subject. So I mentioned a show we did recently on crypto. We have shows on American foreign policy that draw on the expertise of our colleagues around the world. I hope you listen. Enjoy it.
- [52:04]
V. Spear
Awesome. Well, we will check it out. And until next time, I'm V. Speer.
- [52:08]
Sammy Sage
And I'm Sammy Sage.
- [52:09]
V. Spear
And this is American Beaver Dream.
- [52:12]
Sammy Sage
Good night.
- [52:19]
Charlotte Howard
Betches.