Podcast Summary

Podcast: American History Hit
Host: Don Wildman
Guest: Dr. Jeffrey Rog, Senior Research Fellow at the Global and National Security Institute at the University of South Florida, author of The Spy and The State: The History of American Intelligence
Episode Title: What If There Were No CIA?
Air Date: October 16, 2025

Main Theme

This episode explores the counterfactual—what if the CIA had never been formed? Through a deep-dive conversation with intelligence historian Jeffrey Rog, host Don Wildman unpacks the origins, purpose, controversial history, and global consequences of the CIA's existence. The discussion ranges from Cold War power plays and secret experimentation to the wider impact on American democracy, foreign policy, and public cynicism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Origins and Function of the CIA

[02:24 – 09:59]

• Birth of the CIA:
  The CIA was established in 1947 as a response to the chaos of competing intelligence organizations and the lack of dedicated foreign intelligence for the President.

  "How do you get intelligence directly to the person who needs it most, the President of the United States? And... that was one of the issues the CIA was designed to solve." – Jeffrey Rog [05:58]

• Not Domestic Law Enforcement:
  The CIA’s role was strictly foreign intelligence; it was prohibited from conducting law enforcement or surveillance on American citizens.

• Rooted in Wartime Experience:
  Inheriting practices from the OSS (Office of Strategic Services), the CIA brought a new level of secrecy and organization to American intelligence.

2. The Counterfactual: A U.S. Without the CIA

[10:02 – 12:08]

• Pre-CIA Inefficiency:
  America relied on a loose, often uncoordinated network—FBI, military intelligence—but lacked a coherent, purpose-built foreign intelligence agency.

  "What we found out is coordinating with competing figureheads doesn't really work out all that well." – Jeffrey Rog [12:41]

• Pearl Harbor as a Watershed:
  Intelligence failure at Pearl Harbor convinced policymakers and the public of the dire need for centralized, anticipatory intelligence.

• Inevitable Need:
  Even absent a CIA, intelligence and covert actions would have emerged elsewhere; the nature of geopolitics demanded it.

3. Early Cold War: Justifying Secrecy and Action

[13:36 – 17:39]

• U.S. vs. Soviet Union:
  Early Cold War anxieties compelled America to match and outpace Soviet intelligence structures.

• Collaboration & Rivalry:
  The British MI6 influenced the American approach, but there was also rivalry and unease about repeating Gestapo-like overreaches.

  "The British were a colonial power... America—it's funny because... we were anti-colonial, even. But at the same time, by sort of picking up the pieces where the British left off, now... the CIA gets branded as this, like, postcolonial secret intelligence organization." – Jeffrey Rog [28:54]

4. Notorious Operations & Scandals

MK Ultra: Mind Control Experiments

[14:32 – 18:10]

• Origins & Scope:
  Born of Cold War fears, MK Ultra sought methods for mind control and interrogation, often experimenting on unwitting subjects.

  "On one hand it's invented for an obvious reason... but on the other hand, we start to manipulate events... at home and abroad." – Don Wildman [17:39]

• Would it Still Happen?
  Similar experiments may have taken place under military or other agency auspices, even without a CIA.

Covert Overthrows: Iran and Guatemala

[21:23 – 38:12]

• Operation Ajax (Iran, 1953):
  With MI6, the CIA helped oust democratically elected Prime Minister Mossadegh. Oil nationalization and fear of communism motivated intervention.

  "If the CIA didn't exist, MI6... had already planned to do this anyway and... kind of get the CIA on board." – Jeffrey Rog [22:32]

• Operation PB Success (Guatemala, 1954):
  The CIA orchestrated a coup against Jacobo Arbenz for land reforms that threatened U.S. business interests (notably United Fruit Company—the Dulles brothers had professional ties to both the CIA and United Fruit).

  "PB Success... Sort of is successful, but it's a successful failure. You have a civil war... this kills hundreds of thousands of people over decades." – Jeffrey Rog [35:48]

• Domino Theory:
  American actions were justified by fears of communist expansion—a logic that later proved flawed, as post-war histories diverged from U.S. predictions.

• Blowback:
  Unintended long-term consequences ("blowback") plagued such interventions, e.g., fueling future instability and migration crises.

  "There's a funny term for this in intelligence. It's called blowback, and it means the unintended consequences of covert action gone awry." – Jeffrey Rog [40:33]

Domestic Surveillance & MH CHAOS

[46:39 – 51:09]

• Program Details:
  During periods of domestic unrest, the CIA (though forbidden) spied on U.S. citizens and groups, assuming Soviet influence in peace/rights movements.

  "Over 7,000 US citizens and 1,000 groups are infiltrated... it directly violates the CIA charter." – Don Wildman [49:06]

• Church Committee Expose:
  The 1970s saw Congressional investigations, public outcry, and a wave of cynicism as Americans learned the extent of abuses and secret operations.

  "We not only did we tell you not to do this, we put it into law... this goes against your charter." – Jeffrey Rog [49:24]

5. The Enduring Legacy and Public Cynicism

[52:12 – 56:31]

• Culture of Secrecy:
  Once established, intelligence cultures perpetuate themselves, constructing an "in crowd" and fostering distrust among the public.

• Difficult Accountability:
  The CIA often takes the fall for government misdeeds, sometimes shielding policymakers and the more public arms of government.

  "It was sort of supposed to fall on the President's sword for the President." – Jeffrey Rog [33:53]

• Collective Responsibility:
  Rog stresses that the CIA operates under presidential authorization and public mandates—society as a whole must scrutinize what is asked or tolerated.

  "We have to be careful what we ask the CIA to do. And I mean the we collectively..." – Jeffrey Rog [53:18]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the CIA’s Paradox:
  "For a nation with a deep tradition of transparency, this marked a radical departure. Nonetheless, in 1947... the Central Intelligence Agency. The CIA. It would become one of the most powerful and controversial institutions in modern history." – Don Wildman [02:24]

• On Blame and Conspiracy:
  "Who would everyone blame for when everything goes wrong in the United States?... We all, when we think about the CIA, you know, there's certain big ticket items, and MK Ultra is one of them." – Jeffrey Rog [15:12]

• On “Blowback”:
  "Blowback... means the unintended consequences of covert action gone awry... it's actually used in a CIA report on Iran at the time, in the 50s to talk about what could go wrong." – Jeffrey Rog [40:33]

• On Secrecy and Democracy:
  "What I try and remind people... is that it's one organization as part of a larger national security establishment with elected officials and oversight from Congress." – Jeffrey Rog [53:18]

• On Public Cynicism:
  "If the creation and these covert operations contributed to the general conspiracy culture of our present day society... Everything is about division and polarization. You wonder how much these operations... contributed to this. This sort of cynicism and darkness to our society was traceable back to the creation of this, you know, deep, deep community fronted by the CIA." – Don Wildman [52:12]

Noteworthy Timestamps

• 02:24 – Don Wildman’s evocative introduction and framing of the episode's core “what if”
• 05:58 – 08:16 – Defining the CIA’s unique placement in U.S. government and its legal limits
• 14:32 – 18:10 – Origins and scandals of Project MK Ultra
• 21:23 – 24:49 – Introduction to CIA’s activism in Iran and Guatemala
• 31:20 – 33:09 – Unpacking the long-term geopolitical ramifications (Iran as ICBM listening post)
• 33:53 – 35:20 – Reflection on the CIA’s thankless role and hidden successes (e.g., U2 plane)
• 35:48 – 38:12 – Details of Operation PB Success and the United Fruit Company’s role
• 40:33 – Definition and example of “blowback”
• 46:39 – 49:24 – MH Chaos and the clear violation of the CIA’s charter
• 52:12 – 55:28 – Public cynicism, conspiracies, and the importance of collective responsibility

Conclusion

The episode closes by urging listeners to consider not only the CIA’s darker chapters, but also its stabilizing contributions, technological leaps, and complex ties to American democracy itself. Rog argues that intelligence actions—good and bad—reflect collective societal anxieties and political choices. The answer to “what if there had never been a CIA” may be: some secret agency would fill the void, and the costs and conundrums of secrecy vs. security would persist.

Guest's Book:
The Spy and the State: The History of American Intelligence by Jeffrey Rog (Find it on Amazon)

Follow Jeffrey Rog:

• LinkedIn: Jeffrey Rog
• X/Twitter: @TheSpyTheState