Americanswers… on 5 Live! Trump claims Iran wants to "make a deal" to end the war

Summary

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Americast: Americanswers… on 5 Live!

Trump Claims Iran Wants to "Make a Deal" to End the War
Date: March 23, 2026
Hosts: Justin Webb, Matt Chorley, Marianna Spring, Sumi Somaskanda
Main Theme:
This Americast episode dives deep into the fast-moving diplomatic developments between the U.S. and Iran amid the continuing conflict, analyzing President Trump’s claims of secret talks, the international mediation landscape, and the fallout for U.S. politics and public opinion. The team also answers listener questions on the role of diplomacy, Trump’s advisers, the impact on daily life, and Republican Party dynamics moving forward.

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1. Overview of the Episode’s Purpose and Main Theme

• Purpose:

  • To analyze President Trump’s surprising claims of potential peace talks with Iran and what’s truly happening behind the scenes.
  • To unpack the political and economic impact of the ongoing war on U.S. society.
  • To address listener questions about policy, diplomacy, the White House inner circle, and the future of the Republican Party.

• Main Theme:

  • Transparency and reality behind purported U.S.-Iran talks: How real are Trump’s claims? Who’s mediating? What happens next?
  • Political consequences for Trump and the Republican Party: How the conflict and emerging diplomacy are affecting Trump’s leadership and future party dynamics.

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2. Key Discussion Points & Insights

A. Are U.S.-Iran Talks Really Happening?

[00:47–06:21]

• Trump has made his “most conciliatory remarks since his war on Iran started” by postponing strikes due to “productive talks,” though Iran officially denies any such discussions.
• Notable Trump quote:
  • “They called. I didn’t call. They called. They want to make a deal and we are very willing to make a deal. It’s got to be a good deal and it’s got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons. They’re not going to have nuclear weapons anymore. They’re agreeing to that, any of that stuff. There’s no deal.” (Donald Trump, [01:38])
• The role of third-party states in mediation: Oman is cited as a crucial broker, alongside Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan, who are “passing messages” between Washington and Tehran.
  • “According to Axios…Pakistan is even…talking about bringing Iranian and American negotiators together in Islamabad.” (Matt Chorley, [04:01])
• Analysts remain skeptical; Trump’s condition of “no future nuclear effort” is seen as “a completely unrealistic expectation.”
  • “There’s no way Iran would sign up for absolutely no enrichment, especially after this attack. What incentive would they have?” (Matt Chorley, [05:39])
• The outcome is volatile: The diplomatic process could fall apart at any moment, with Trump warning, “Otherwise we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out.” (Donald Trump, [01:38], echoed by Matt Chorley, [05:13])

B. Political and Economic Consequences

[06:21–07:11]; [10:34–12:31]

• Even hints of diplomatic progress “have impact on world markets”—especially oil and gas, but also fertilizer, food, and goods.
  • “From the point of view of Donald Trump’s political standing…whether or not this war is supported, this stuff really does matter.” (Justin Webb, [06:21])
• Listeners point out rising gas prices – with one from Kentucky noting, “the price of regular gas has gone up 60 cents” and in Cincinnati, “over a dollar since the conflict started.” (Mary from Kentucky, [10:34])
• Trump’s message to Americans: “Short term pain…in a few weeks, in a few months, things will be back to normal.” (Matt Chorley, [11:22])
  But experts suggest high prices and frustration might affect his popularity if a resolution is not soon reached.

C. Trump’s Advisers and the White House Inner Circle

[07:11–09:58]

• Question raised: Are Trump’s advisers equipped for this conflict?
• Unlike his first term, advisers are loyalists with close personal relationships:
  • “Chief of staff, Susan Wiles…deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller…Probably the most powerful person after Donald Trump.” (Matt Chorley, [08:56])
• Regional expertise is lacking, with concerns about Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s experience, and the tendency to “support what [Trump] wants to do” regardless of established diplomatic strategy.
• Joint Chiefs Chairman Dan Kaine had warned against war but was overridden.

D. U.K.-U.S. Tensions and Trump’s Accessibility

[12:31–16:53]

• U.K. is not playing a prominent role in U.S. public perception, but in Pentagon circles, there are concerns about Britain’s military ability to help if needed.
• Discussion on Trump’s mobile, with journalists noting how easy it is to reach him for comments, contributing to his “flood the zone” strategy:
  • “One way of doing it is just to being staggeringly available.” (Justin Webb, [15:28])
• The American media/public are overwhelmed by Trump’s nonstop messaging:
  • “You can’t because his every word means listening to Donald Trump about eight hours a day.” (Matt Chorley, [16:53])
  • “This flood the zone strategy…that’s also part of the communication strategy.” (Matt Chorley, [16:53])

E. GOP Dynamics: Succession, MAGA, and the Future

[17:38–24:12]

• Listener asks: Is Trump’s coalition fracturing? Will traditional Republicans reclaim the party?
• The party remains solidly Trump’s (“the MAGA party now”), but if Trump falters due to the war, potential successors like JD Vance or Marco Rubio could emerge—though the “traditional Republican” is an “ever rarer breed.” (Matt Chorley, [18:38])
• Discussion of Republican succession, the dilemmas for Vice President JD Vance, and the challenge of distancing from Trump’s legacy.
• Notable JD Vance moment:
  • When asked if he “completely supports” military action:
    • “Well, I think one big difference, Phil, is that we have a smart president, whereas in the past we’ve had dumb presidents. And I trust President Trump to get the job done…Absolutely.” (J.D. Vance, [22:53])
  • “He didn’t exactly say…I completely support this action, which he could have done, and he didn’t.” (Justin Webb, [23:05])
• If things go badly for Trump, other Republicans like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio could seek to maneuver for post-Trump power, particularly if the war drags on and becomes more unpopular.

F. Democratic Impeachment Gambit?

[24:12–26:55]

• Listener from Florida wonders if Democrats sweeping Congress might try to impeach Trump, clearing the way for Vance in 2028.
• Unlikely scenario: Even if Democrats succeed in the House, conviction in the Senate would require significant Republican support.
• Democratic strategists worry impeachment would “strengthen President Trump’s hand,” reinforcing the narrative of partisan “grievance” and risking electoral backlash.
  • “An impeachment proceeding could have the same effect, galvanizing President Trump’s base and turning voters against Democrats…” (Matt Chorley, [25:42])

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3. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump on potential deal:
  • “They called. I didn’t call. They called. They want to make a deal and we are very willing to make a deal. It’s got to be a good deal and it’s got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons.” ([01:38])
• Matt Chorley on negotiations:
  • “According to Axios, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are all playing a role now…Pakistan is even…talking about bringing Iranian and American negotiators together in Islamabad. Imagine that.” ([04:01])
• Economic reality check by Mary from Kentucky:
  • “The price of regular gas has gone up 60 cents per gallon since the war started. And in the Cincinnati area…over a dollar since the conflict started.” ([10:34])
• JD Vance on the war and Trump:
  • “What the president said consistently…I agreed with him…We have taken this military action under the president’s leadership…I think all of us…should pray for success and pray for the safety of our troops. That’s the approach that I’ve taken.” ([22:14])
  • “I trust President Trump to get the job done, to do a good job for the American people, and to make sure that the mistakes of the past aren’t repeated. Absolutely.” ([22:53])
• Justin Webb on Trump’s strategy:
  • “One way of doing it is just to being staggeringly available…he is just completely different to anything that there’s been before.” ([15:28])
• Matt Chorley on the MAGA party:
  • “This is President Trump’s party, this is the MAGA party. Now, that is something that has become very clear…especially now that President Trump is back in office.” ([18:38])
• Justin Webb on GOP succession:
  • "It just seems to me that Ted Cruz...and how they, if the war doesn’t go well, how they seek in the next few months to peel themselves off from Trump." ([20:04])

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4. Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:47–06:21] – Trump’s claim of talks with Iran and the reality of diplomatic mediation
• [06:21–07:11] – Domestic and international market impacts of potential peace
• [07:11–09:58] – Trump’s advisers, loyalty vs. experience debate
• [10:34–12:31] – Listener voices on public opinion, U.S. living costs
• [12:31–14:15] – U.K.-U.S. tensions, U.K. military limitations
• [14:15–16:53] – Trump’s accessibility, media and public saturation
• [17:38–24:12] – Intraparty dynamics: JD Vance, succession, MAGA’s future
• [24:12–26:55] – Democratic impeachment scenario, risks and strategies

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5. Tone and Language of the Episode

• Informal yet analytical debate, typical of BBC journalism: clear, candid, sometimes wry or humorously skeptical, with respect for complexity.
• Quotes from listeners highlight day-to-day real-world impacts, while hosts maintain a big-picture analytic approach.
• Trump and JD Vance’s remarks are reported as straightforward, making their strategic calculations plain.

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6. Conclusion

This episode provides a nuanced, up-to-the-minute look at Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict, the secretive and fraught diplomatic efforts, and the profound repercussions for U.S. domestic politics and global markets. The hosts skillfully blend listener concerns with expert analysis, giving a grounded yet forward-looking overview of a pivotal moment for both the Trump presidency and the U.S. political landscape.

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Transcript

[Justin Webb]

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[Matt Chorley]

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[Justin Webb]

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[Matt Chorley]

We've planned for the plot twists, so support is always available because a great

[Justin Webb]

trip starts with peace of mind. Are there talks, serious talks, happening between the United States and Iran? And if there are, could they actually lead to anything? In public, both sides are talking about what they think the talks are and are not. We ask what's going on behind the scenes? What is really happening? We also answer your questions today on 5Live. But before we get into that, Sumi and I kick off with the most conciliatory remarks from Donald Trump since his war on Iran started. He has postponed his threatened strikes against Iranian power plants, which had a midnight deadline due to what he said were productive talks with Iran, which of course Iran has denied. But let's listen to the President.

[Donald Trump]

We're going to get together today by probably phone because it's very hard to find a country. It's very hard for them to get out, I guess. But we'll at some point very, very soon meet. We're doing a five day period. We'll see how that goes. And if it goes well, we're going to end up with settling this. Otherwise we're just keep bombing our little hearts out. They called. I didn't call. They called. They want to make a deal and we are very willing to make a deal. It's got to be a good deal and it's got to be no more wars, no more nuclear weapons. They're not going to have nuclear weapons anymore. They're agreeing to that, any of that stuff. There's no deal.

[Justin Webb]

We've had this voice note from Mark in Guildford and Surrey in England. What options remain for diplomatic dialogue to stop the current war? Do any back channels exist and which countries, if any, are likely to be able to broker a peace deal to bring the war to an end? It's a good question from Mark and Guilford. And actually it's a question that brings up the fact that this is all very fast moving and could have moved faster and further in various directions by the time you're listening to this. But I mean, two things. Number one, Donald Trump has made it very plain in his view that something has happened, there is some kind of contact behind the scenes. Number two, the Iranian leadership, such as it is, and we're again, not entirely sure who that is at this stage, but they seem to be suggesting that there is nothing, nothing at all, no talks are taking place. But number three, and this, I think, in a way, Sumi is the most important side of it because this is someone who in a sense isn't involved in the direct flight. Well, isn't involved in the direct fight and has in the past been involved in diplomacy. And that is Oman, this Gulf state, which is slightly removed from all of this, has reasonable relations with Iran, has reasonable relationships with the wider west as well and with Donald Trump, and was trying to do some sort of a deal involving the Iranians before the war broke out. And now the Omani foreign minister has used X to say that there is some sort of a potential deal to be done over opening the Strait of Hormuz. So, Sumi, it's wrong to say, isn't it, that there is absolutely nothing happening publicly? We can't see any evidence of anything happening. But it's also true to say, isn't it, that it's all a bit opaque?

[Matt Chorley]

Yeah. And President Trump was actually asked about the Iranians saying there are no talks happening. And he said, well, we've blown up their radars and telecommunications, so could be he was indicating that they don't know or parts of the Iranian leadership don't know about talks taking place. And he said that his special envoy, Witkoff and Jared Kushner, his son in law and adviser, that they have been spearheading these indirect talks. And interesting. Also Axios here in the US has been reporting that Turkey, Egypt and Pakistan are all playing a role now. They've been passing messages between the US And Iran. Of course, they're not in contact directly, but interesting to see that these three countries, according to Axios, are playing a role and that Pakistan indeed is even, according to this reporting from Burak Ravid, is even talking about bringing Iranian and American negotiators together in Islamabad. Imagine that. So, of course, Pakistan is one of the countries that has been impacted by the Strait of Hormuz being closed. But the point has also been made that President Trump could say, well, I'm not happy with the conditions that the Iranians are laying out, or his negotiators could say that and this war could continue. But it does appear at this point that there is some movement on the diplomatic front.

[Justin Webb]

Yeah. And just to make it plain that he could walk away. The thing that he has said now, hasn't he again relatively recently, is his public position is that Iran is signing up to no future nuclear effort on its part and to getting rid of all the nuclear material that it's got. And if that is the case, and that's a big deal and it's a big arse and there are plenty in Iran who wouldn't go with it.

[Matt Chorley]

It is also important to note that analysts I've spoken to who worked on the previous nuclear agreement negotiated under President Obama and his administration say that is a completely unrealistic expectation. There's no way Iran would sign up for absolutely no enrichment, especially after this attack. What incentive would they have to do so? That doesn't mean that they don't feel at this point that they're cornered and perhaps have to make those types of concessions. But on President Trump's side, he was asked also about this and he said if it goes well, we're going to end up with settling this. Otherwise we'll just keep bombing our little hearts out. So that gives you an indication of just how volatile this entire process could be, especially if President Trump sees that no enrichment is not going to be on the table.

[Justin Webb]

And it's just worth saying, finally, isn't it, Simi, on this, that for the Trump administration, for the politics of all of this in America, which is our principal interest on AmericasT, this really does matter. You can see the immediate impact even the hint of potential talks have on world markets. And from the point of view of Donald Trump's political standing and the MAGA movement and the wider issues about whether or not this war is supported, this stuff really does matter.

[Matt Chorley]

It does. And there's such an impact not just here in the US but across the world. We've seen the impact already on oil and gas markets. But Justin, just think about what the knock on effects will be. We've talked about fertilizer, but also on food and other goods. If this war continues, you just have the sense that President Trump is going to face increasing pressure at home and abroad.

[Justin Webb]

Okay, let's get on to more of your questions now with Matt Chorley and Marianna as well. So who is Trump listening to when it comes to the war? What do Americans think? Where is the U.S. vice President? J.D. v. Welcome to America. Answers

[Matt Chorley]

AmericasT AmericasT from BBC News.

[Donald Trump]

You hear that sound? Oh, I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money.

[Justin Webb]

We didn't start this war, but under

[J.D. Vance]

President Trump, we are finishing it.

[Matt Chorley]

This is a big cover up and this administration is engaged in it. This guy has Trump derangement syndrome. I have four words for you.

[Donald Trump]

Turn the volume up.

[Matt Chorley]

Hello, americast, it's Bob in Minneapolis.

[J.D. Vance]

Is President Trump getting good advice as

[Donald Trump]

he makes decisions about the Iran war?

[Matt Chorley]

We've read about the reduced effectiveness of

[Donald Trump]

the State Department and various US Intelligence

[Matt Chorley]

agencies as experienced professionals depart to be replaced by Trump loyalists. Do his advisors have the regional knowledge needed to develop effective strategies and will the president listen to them?

[Marianna Spring]

Who is advising Donald Trump on the decisions he's making?

[Sumi Somaskanda]

I think it's really interesting because the difference in Donald Trump's administration's this time around and the team around him versus the first time this time around. A lot of the people that Donald Trump is working with are people that he kind of has a close relationship with and they don't seem to fall out quite nearly so much. But that impression of competence is slightly different this time around just because there's that feeling of, hang on a second, like what is Hegseth up to? Why, you know, he's the Secretary of State for Defense, like, you know, what expertise does he has? How is he making the decisions that he's making? I don't know what you think, Justin, or Sumi, about the way that Americans perceive it versus what's actually happening.

[Matt Chorley]

Yeah, I think that's a really interesting point because on the one hand you're absolutely right, Mariana, that this time, this presidential term for Donald Trump, of course he has a completely different set of advisors, those who are mainly there to support what he wants to do. He is listening to his chief of staff, Susan Whiles is listening to his deputy chief of staff, Stephen Miller, who arguably is the most powerful person in the administration after Donald Trump. Also, we know that he does think highly of the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Kaine. But if you think about that, Dan Cain actually we heard in the week before the war started, had been warning the Trump administration, had been warning President Trump himself about the risks of starting a war with Iran. And yet the wars, the attacks with Israel, of course, went ahead anyways. And so the sense you have now is that President Trump is not necessarily looking at expertise in the region. He's not necessarily looking at those who know Iran well or perhaps had anything to do with negotiations with Iran in the past. He's looking at what the transaction is that he can make here.

[Justin Webb]

Yeah. And just to follow through on that, Matt, the thing that they want, of course, that he can then say this is all we ever wanted, although his war aims right at the beginning were pretty unclear and they change from day to day. But if they have, if they could get them to agree to give up all their nuclear material and to not make any effort at all in that direction in the future, then that would be more than anyone's achieved in the past.

[Marianna Spring]

Let's turn our attention to, because we've had quite a lot of questions and comments about how this is playing out inside the US Mary in Kentucky has sent us this voice note.

[Matt Chorley]

Certainly I'm beginning to notice that my gas station in Northern Kentucky, the price of regular gas has gone up 60 cents per gallon since the war started. And in the Cincinnati area where I attend grad school, average gas prices have increased over a dollar since the conflict started. So what did the team think about Trump's message? And is it even feasible for Trump to pull out at this point? Cheers, y'.

[Justin Webb]

All.

[Marianna Spring]

Well, excellent. Y' all there for Mary in Kentucky, I mean, the same way that it's been played out in the, in the UK as well, people notice their gas or petrol prices more than perhaps anything else because it's, it's there and it's written on the side of the road and you'll know, you, you notice every time you fill up. So is Donald Trump taking America with him on this, or do you think that actually it's your Marys in Kentucky noticing gas prices going up is having any impact on his decision making?

[Matt Chorley]

I think it very likely will do. Look, the jury's still out on whether President Trump is taking the American public with him on this. To this point, it is clear that this war, according to the polls that we've seen, is pretty unpopular with the American people. You have to remember that this is coming off the back of the fact that prices still remain pretty high here in the US when it comes to groceries, housing and energy. Prices had come down, gas prices had come down. Now they're shooting back up. And so there's real frustration with these gas prices. I've been watching US Media reports where you see people stopped as they're filling up their tank and asked about who they voted for and how they feel about gas prices. And you see some pretty upset President Trump supporters, people who voted for him, who say he lied to us and this is not what I signed up for. That being said, President Trump's message has been, look, this is short term pain and in a few weeks, in a few months, things will be back to normal. Will Americans give him that leeway? It's hard to say, and it really depends on whether President Trump can wrap the war up in a way that he feels is successful and also be able to stabilize those oil markets again, which oil and gas experts we have spoken to say that takes a little time.

[Marianna Spring]

Sumi, to what extent does Keir Starmer sort of impact on the psyche in America?

[Matt Chorley]

I would say in the broader psyche of the American public, not much. I can say that the debate between the UK and the US Right now and the pressure that President Trump has been putting on the UK hasn't really played out in the American public among lawmakers here. I speak to Democrats and Republicans regularly. Democrats are upset with what they say is undue pressure that President Trump is putting on one of the U.S. s closest allies. But among Republicans, and particularly those who support President Trump's mission here, they see a real sense of betrayal, actually. You know, President Trump always says of the special relationships we have with other countries, this is the most important one, the US And UK he called it the Rolls Royce, didn't he? Of partnerships that the US Has. And in the administration, there is a real sense that the UK has let the US Down. But beyond President Trump and his administration and some of those Republican members of Congress that I mentioned, it's not getting a whole lot of attention, perhaps far more in the UK Than here.

[Justin Webb]

Can I also just add to that, Matt, that one of the things, one of the places away from the politics of it all, one of the places that you do hear it is having an impact is just at the sort of technical level of Britain's ability to be useful in a military crisis. And that is somewhere where the Pentagon, you know, they've always talked about, I don't know, our special forces, our kind of commitment to being able to do stuff. And they've been aware that our armed forces have come under a lot of pressure recently. But there is some real concern actually just about where Britain is. Even if we wanted to do the things that Donald Trump wanted us to do, whether actually we'd be capable of doing them. And that, I think, does seep through into the thinking in the Pentagon.

[Marianna Spring]

Can I ask about Donald Trump's mobile number? Because it seems like everyone in Washington has it.

[Matt Chorley]

It's the worst kept secret, isn't it?

[Marianna Spring]

Particularly British journalists just phone him up and say, do you want to say something rude about Keir Starmer? And he obliges. And then it creates a whole new cycle. Sue me. Have you got to share it with the rest of us?

[Matt Chorley]

I don't have it. He is eager to give it out appears, or you can actually contact other reporters and ask them for it, but to what extent they're getting interesting and unique insights from President Trump on the phone, I'm not entirely sure.

[Justin Webb]

Okay, it is 001.

[Sumi Somaskanda]

No,

[Matt Chorley]

I knew Justin had it.

[Sumi Somaskanda]

I knew it. We were just. We'll give him a bell on America.

[Justin Webb]

It's funny, though, is it the fact, the simple fact, Matt, that Theresa May was asked for her mobile phone number to give to Donald Trump, said no.

[Marianna Spring]

Did she?

[Sumi Somaskanda]

When was that?

[Justin Webb]

Well, when she was Prime Minister.

[Marianna Spring]

Yeah.

[Justin Webb]

Yeah. No, she said no, it's okay. We'll just go through the usual channels. Thank you very much.

[Sumi Somaskanda]

Well, we've seen it. Do you remember those screenshots of the messages that seem to be from Macron to Donald Trump where they were just texting away?

[Justin Webb]

Yes, that's why I don't text him. You never know where it's going to end up.

[Marianna Spring]

Is there something, Justin, in this sort of the incredible accessibility to Donald Trump?

[Justin Webb]

It's part of the whole story, isn't it? Yeah. I mean, you're dead right. And it's worth just underlining how. And we've kind of got used to Donald Trump now, haven't we? But he is just completely different to anything that there's been before in so many ways. And part of it is that he understands that we live in an information economy now, that you've got to capture attention. And one way of doing it is just to being staggeringly available. You know, there are plenty of people, serious academic students of politics and of media who would say that is very much the modern world. And it could be that future presidents of both political stripes in the states have to be. Be in a sense similar.

[Sumi Somaskanda]

And a conversation is very different if you think it might be screen grabbed and go viral on social media and, or people can now just AI, generate images that look like real text conversations as well. So once it's known that, you know, these leaders are in direct communication with each other, it's incredibly easy to make a fake that sort of takes off and everyone thinks, oh, was that real? Was it not real? Who knows?

[Marianna Spring]

So I wonder if it's sort of diminishing returns on it. Because the thing I really noticed last week was, or maybe the week before it started with Donald Trump's being rude about Keir Starmer and that was like a massive story. And then by the time you saw the eighth day of Kirst, Donald Trump being rude about Kiss, so it was sort of, sort of baked in. Does the American media, American public, hang on his every word, or is there any sort of sense of you can't, you can't because you just can't keep up with it.

[Matt Chorley]

You can't because his every word means listening to Donald Trump about eight hours a day. Of course, we hear from him when he is getting on an airplane, we hear from him when he, when he's getting off an airplane. We hear him at the Oval Office. And it is very much part of the strategy. Remember when President Trump came back to office and we heard this flood the zone strategy, as many policies, as many different initiatives as possible, that's also part of the communication strategy. So obviously we have to move with President Trump in what he's saying every minute, every hour of every day.

[Justin Webb]

Right. We've come off air with Matt Chorley on five Live, but we've got plenty more still to talk about. So, I mean, let's start with this voice note that we've had from Leslie in London.

[Sumi Somaskanda]

I wondered if Trump's personal popularity is falling and the MAGA coalition is fracturing, are voters likely to plump for Trump's anointed successor?

[Reba (Realtor.com Ad Voice)]

Or are there signs that traditional Republicans

[Sumi Somaskanda]

might reclaim their party before the next presidential election? Or is that just wishful old fashioned thinking?

[Justin Webb]

Keep on casting. Bye. It's such a good question that Sumi and what we've, we've sort of teased around it a bit on pods recently where we've suggested that if things really do go badly for Trump, then J.D. vance potentially will have the same problem that Kamala Harris had. In other words, you've attached yourself and you've got to explain somehow that you were never there or you never really thought about the things that were happening at the time, you didn't support them, etc. And that's really difficult to do, particularly when you still are the vice president. I don't know what's your thoughts about JD Vance in particular and indeed who the runners and riders might be if he were to take a popularity tumble.

[Matt Chorley]

So I have to say it's a great question indeed, Leslie, but it's far too early to talk about the demise of President Trump. Yes, if you look at the right wing influencer circle, MAGA circle, there are plenty of people who are not happy about the war in Iran, as you guys have been discussing on the pod, who are not happy about grocery prices, who are not happy perhaps with some of President Trump's immigration policies. At the same time, President Trump still wields enormous power over Congress, over the vast majority of his base. And the proof of that is, if you look at polling when it comes to maga, President Trump supporters, they still almost unanimously support his policies. So there is that aspect. And then the question of whether the quote, unquote, traditional Republican Party might reclaim their power over the base before the next president presidential election, that is an ever rarer breed here in Washington. I have to say that traditional Republican. And this is President Trump's party, this is the MAGA party. Now, that is something that has become very clear, you know, in the last few years in particular, but especially now that President Trump is back in office. As for JD Vance, yes, it is true that he is in a very good position, of course, to be able to move forward if President Trump were to give him the green light. But as of now, he hasn't done that. I think, Justin, it's always important to keep in mind President Trump wants the spotlight, and he's not gonna give that up very easily, even if the next presidential election is just a few years

[Justin Webb]

away, if you look then at the people. Cause we ought to just say something with all the caveats that you said, that it's way too early and anyone could come from anywhere, including possibly outer space in the modern age. But it just seems to me that Ted Cruz, who people Americasters are educated about America, they'll certainly have heard of him and quite a few will know quite a lot about him. And he's obviously a very big noise in the Senate and has been for some time. The people that interest me are people like Ted Cruz and how they, if the war doesn't go well, how they seek in the next few months to peel themselves off from Trump. And I just wonder whether there might, in the end, actually, to your point, just be more people in it than just Rubio and Vance, who are the ones we always talk about at the moment.

[Matt Chorley]

Indeed, at the moment, of course, it's JD Vance, it's Marco Rubio. Those are the main figures who are talked about as the possible successors for President Trump and the MAGA mantle to carry that forward. And this has always been a question of timeline, hasn't it, Justin? If this war continues on for another two, three weeks and then even further on to another two, three months, there is a real possibility for a different candidate. And there is the prospect that particularly Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, who has really supported President Trump vocally in this war and has been one of the key messengers on this war in the first weeks, that he stands to lose from that. J.D. vance has, in a Way, we've seen the reporting that he has separated himself a bit from President Trump. President Trump himself has said that, you know, he has some differing opinions from JD Vance on this war. So that is perhaps something that J.D. vance can play up, if you will. But it does open the door for other figures of the Republican Party to really rise up if they say, we are truly America first, we were never for this war in the first place.

[Justin Webb]

We'll listen to a bit of J.D. vance, actually, because his position is so fascinating on all of this. So this was Vance talking last week in the Oval Office. So he's standing right next to Donald Trump, and he's asked, is he on board with the war in Iran.

[J.D. Vance]

I know what you're trying to do, Phil. You're trying to drive a wedge between members of the administration, between me and the president. What the president said consistently going back to 2015, and I agreed with him, is that Iran should not have a nuclear weapon. We have taken this military action under the president's leadership. I think all of us, whether you're a Democrat or Republican, should pray for success and pray for the safety of our troops. That's the approach that I've taken. Make it as successful as possible.

[Justin Webb]

So there's no hesitation, given your past statements, with the current operation.

[J.D. Vance]

What do you mean, there's no hesitation given with my past statements, given your

[Matt Chorley]

skepticism of foreign adventurism.

[Justin Webb]

You were a critic of the global war on terror previously.

[J.D. Vance]

Well, I think one big difference, Phil, is that we have a smart president, whereas in the past we've had dumb presidents. And I trust President Trump to get the job done, to do a good job for the American people, and to make sure that the mistakes of the past aren't repeated. Absolutely.

[Justin Webb]

He didn't exactly say there, did he? I completely support this action, which he could have done, and he didn't.

[Matt Chorley]

That's right. I find this messaging from JD Vance so interesting. He's saying, well, because this war is President Trump's war, it's different. We have these, quote, dumb presidents in the past. President Trump isn't that. And that really underlines, actually, if you talk about some sort of foreign policy strategy that President Trump has, it's very much based on his own vision of what he thinks works. It's his own intuition. Remember when he said, this war will end when I feel it in my bones, deeply in my bones, and that's what J.D. vance himself is pointing at there, that President Trump knows what he's doing. Trust him with this. But all the indications we see from this war is that everything appears to be spiraling out of control in a way that President Trump and his team had not anticipated. Remember, President Trump even said, well, nobody expected Iran to hit out on the Gulf states. Intelligence analysts I've spoken to have said, well, that was to be anticipated. The Strait of Hormuz was to be anticipated. So some of the criticisms that J.D. vance has had on this topic in the past, they might really ring true the longer this war stretches on.

[Justin Webb]

Okay, we'll look. On the subject of J.D. vance, we have someone on the line now from Florida. Hunter in Florida joins us. Hey, Hunter, what's your question? And thanks for coming up for us. Absolutely. And thanks for your show.

[Matt Chorley]

My question is, is it in the

[Justin Webb]

long term, would it be better for Republicans overall if the Democrats sweep the House and Senate, move to impeach Trump and then allow Vance to kind of

[Matt Chorley]

take off and get good footing for the 2028 election?

[Justin Webb]

Yeah, that is a fascinating idea, isn't it? So just, just to go through what might then happen. So they take the House, which they're very much expected to do, aren't they? Aren't doing in the autumn, in the fall, but they take the Senate as well, which frankly didn't look that likely until now and possibly particularly depending on the price of gas, etc, etc, looks more possible. And then they impeach Trump, which they will do in the House almost certainly because their base want them to do it. So the articles of impeachment go through, they then have to convict him. I think for you to get what you're talking about, they would have to convict him in the Senate, which they haven't done in previous impeachments. And to do that, they'd need to get some Republicans on board, depending on how many seats they'd won, because you have to get up to 60. So Sumi, in those circumstances, with Trump gone, I suppose that is one of the solutions to the problem for JD Vance we've just been talking about.

[Matt Chorley]

That would be divorcing J.D. vance, however, from President Trump and the larger MAGA movement. And I think that is incredibly unlikely. And the reality is also, and that's a really interesting question, Hunter, thank you for that. Democrats are themselves asking whether impeachment really would make sense because the concern is that carrying out impeachment proceedings, even if just in the House, if the Democrats do not win the Senate, let's say that that would strengthen President Trump's hand. Remember that President Trump, in the first criminal indictments that he was handed many Democrats afterwards in 2024, as President Trump was running for office, saw that as really elevating President Trump's grievance that they are after me, they are trying to take me down. This is politically motivated. An impeachment proceeding could have the same effect, galvanizing President Trump's base and turning voters against Democrats, who, by the way, if you look at all the polling, it's not like Democrats are particularly popular right now either. So that is a real consideration and a conversation that's happening here among Democrats in Washington. So it's not a given that even if Democrats do take the House, which as you said, Justin, does look very likely at this point, that they would go forward with any sort of process to try to remove President Trump.

[Justin Webb]

Hunter, thanks a lot for coming on and talking to us. Really, really good. If you're getting the trouble, enjoy the rest of your day in Florida. Righty here. That's it from us.

[Matt Chorley]

Bye bye, bye bye.

[Justin Webb]

Thank you for answering our call and continuing to send your messages to us. We do read every single one. We love to hear your thoughts, your feedback and questions as well. So please do keep them coming. You can send us an email. It's americastbank abc.co.uk, the WhatsApp is 443-301-23-9480 and you can get involved in the AmericasT Discord server. The link to that is in the description. And don't forget to subscribe. That way you will never miss an episode. Until next time.

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