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Americast
Are the Democrats ready to win back Congress?
00:38:59
We speak to Obama's former adviser about the party’s chances in the midterms
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- [00:00]
Justin Webb
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- [01:01]
Justin Webb
Are the Democrats really back as a political force in the United States? They've been knocked sideways by Donald Trump, but they seem to be fighting back and crucially winning elections. Can they win in the biggest of the elections, the midterms in November? Welcome to americast.
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Sumi Somaskanda
Americast americast from BBC News.
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Jim Messina
You hear that sound?
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Donald Trump (quoted)
Oh, I think when I hear that sound it reminds me of money.
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Justin Webb
We didn't start this war, but under President Trump we are finishing it.
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Sumi Somaskanda
This is a big cover up and this administration is engaged in it.
- [01:36]
Jim Messina
This guy has Trump derangement syndrome. I have four words for you.
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Political Commentator
Turn the volume up.
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Justin Webb
Hello, it's Justin in the worldwide headquarters of AmericasT in London, England.
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Sumi Somaskanda
Hello, it's Sumi joining from my home
- [01:53]
Justin Webb
in Washington D.C. and we have a special guest, Sumi we're gonna get to in a bit. And when I say a special guest, I really do mean it this time around. You get political operatives, don't you? Thousands of them in America who claim to be White House advisors. And then you find actually they've only ever been to the White House once and then whoever the president was at the time wouldn't be able to pick them out in a lineup. We have the polar opposite of that today cause we've got Jim Messina who, who not only was part of Obama when he came to power and I can well remember him then being quite a big figure in the campaign, but he was then a very big figure in 2012. In fact, he was in charge of Obama being re elected in 2012. And that was not a sure thing. People who remember back to those days will remember that Mitt Romney the Republican was thought to have a chance and Obama kind of stumbled halfway through. He didn't do very well in a debate and it was all up in the air and Jim Massino was the man who powered it all through through and he has very, very strong views, I think it is fair to say, and doesn't suffer fools gladly and has seen politics on the very inside. And he is going to tell us what he thinks the Democrats chances are in the midterms. But then interestingly as well beyond the midterms and crucially, of course, for the presidential as well. Let's start with the midterms though, Sumi, that are coming up. We ought to do a sort of basic thing about what it is that is up for grabs and what the likelihood is at the moment that there are Republican wins and Democratic wins. So let's start with Congress because it's the whole House, isn't it? And then what, a third of the Senate?
- [03:29]
Sumi Somaskanda
Yeah, the midterm elections. And I know our listeners and viewers know this, but this happens, you know, halfway through the term, a president's term. And this is when all of the seats in the House of Representatives and about half of the seats in the Senate are up for election. And for the House of Representatives, they're up every two years. In the Senate they serve six year terms. But it is such an important test of first, the president and the party in power's popularity and second, the opposition party, if you will. There's only one opposition party in the US but how they are faring and I think it's safe to say that this is as critical of a midterm election as you can get. As of now, Democrats need to get three seats, be able to take control of the House of Representatives. So you know, right now it's a very narrow Republican majority. They would need four seats to be able to take over the Senate. That is a more of an uphill battle, more of a stretch for them. But it is in play now, whereas let's say six months ago or even a year ago, it would have been very hard to say that the Senate is in play for the Democrats. So there's really a lot up for grabs for Democrats. And Republicans are somewhat nervously, let's say, looking to the midterms.
- [04:42]
Justin Webb
Yeah. And Trump himself is worried and plainly worried for one overriding reason. So back in January, he was very open about that reason.
- [04:50]
Donald Trump (quoted)
You got to win the midterms because if we don't win the midterms, it's just going to be, I mean, they'll find a reason to impeach me. I'll get impeached. We don't impeach them. You know why? Because they're meaner than we are. We should have impeached Joe Biden For 100 different things, they are mean and smart.
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Justin Webb
Is he right about impeachment, Sumi?
- [05:16]
Sumi Somaskanda
I don't know. I mean, whether it's a case of being mean or not, that's not the criteria on which you launch impeachment proceedings, of course. But by all accounts, President Trump was deeply impacted by the impeachment proceedings against him in his first term. And this is something he is truly worried about. If the Democrats take back the House of Representatives and the Senate, they would have the ability to fully impeach the president. So not just in one chamber, but do they want to do that? Is that smart? There is a strain of analysis here in the US that the legal cases, for example, against the president, the impeachment proceedings against him in his first term, perhaps only serve to strengthen his hand and strengthen the argument that the, the Democrats are simply out to get him. That's something that Democrats here know, analysts know, and yet we've seen so many breaks from precedent and questions of the legality of some of President Trump's actions that some Democrats say, well, we have no choice but to, to, to carry out investigations.
- [06:20]
Justin Webb
Yeah, let's just look at how well the Democrats are doing at the moment, because they are doing very well, aren't they? Including in Florida, this amazing result in Florida that we did talk a little bit about. But talk us through that because that's going to hurt Don, isn't it?
- [06:35]
Sumi Somaskanda
Yeah. This was a legislative district in President Trump's own backyard. So where Mar A Lago sits, a Democrat upset, a Republican who by the way, had President Trump's backing. So Emily Gregory, who was a first time candidate, beat Republican John Maples. This was for the 87 state House seat. And again, it's that part of Palm beach where Mar A Lago is. And if you look at the Numbers before, in 2024, a Republican won that district by 19 percentage points. And Emily Gregory here really made this all about affordability. And this is a clip of her speaking to CBS News in Miami after the win about why she said that she ran.
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Emily Gregory
I felt that the leadership in the legislature was not listening to us. I felt that they were very distracted on cultural issues and not solving the very real affordability issues that us average Floridians are struggling with, like property insurance and healthcare and education. And that is the only reason that I am interested in running, is trying to find solutions to these big, big affordability issues.
- [07:47]
Justin Webb
Do you have a sense, Simi, that that central thing that she encapsulated there is the thing that runs through all Recent Democratic successes. In other words, you focus on affordability. I think in Britain we'd call it the of living.
- [08:04]
Sumi Somaskanda
And on nothing else, it certainly looks like it. Listen to that message discipline there from Emily Gregory. She sounds like Zoran Mandani, who could bring, you know, a question about Halloween candy. Back to the question of affordability and how to serve voters on affordability. This has become more or less the recipe for success for Democrats. This is why President Trump mainly and was elected back to office, wasn't it was the cost of living and making America affordable again for people. Of course, immigration played a big part in his victory as well and in other cultural issues. But I heard James Talarico, who is, as you know, a candidate for Senate from Texas and has been this real up and coming figure in the Democratic Party, young, popular, you know, figure for the Democrats in Texas, he said, they keep wanting to talk about trans issues, but let's talk about affordability because that's what they want to distract from. And there's a point to be made there that this, the cultural issue of, you know, trans women playing in sports or whether it's the bathroom debate, all of that is in a way distracting from the larger question of is your life better off now than it was a year ago? And that's what Democrats feel like they can really hammer home on.
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Justin Webb
Yeah, it's a really interesting one that, isn't it? Because they seem to think that they can put those cultural issues to one side because affordability is such a big deal. The counterargument to that is that just sort of saying, oh, look, we're not interested in that stuff. Change the subject. Doesn't work when, for instance, someone says to you, should a biological male be allowed to race against my daughter at school? Just, just pivoting away. I mean, that can, that's intellectually sumi. That works, doesn't it? I'm just not sure it works always on a campaign trail.
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Sumi Somaskanda
Well, and to that point point, some of the attack ads that are being taken out against James Talarico in Texas now are bringing up clips of him having talked about how many gender identities there are and what gender God has. And those are things that Republicans in Texas will use against James Talarico. But I do think there's a finer point there. It's perhaps not deflecting the question. And the California governor Gavin Newsom has talked about this, about protecting trans people in America, but just making, just making sure that it is part of a larger and broader argument about why Democrats can better serve people. And if you look at some of the successes that they've had, I mean, let's just go through some of the victories that Democrats have had in these smaller state legislative bodies. And in Texas, you had a Democrat, Taylor Remt, win a special election for the Texas state Senate. That was the first time that this district has been represented by a Democrat in nearly 30 years. And perhaps biggest of all, you saw the two gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, Mikey Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, who were able to win those races on a basic centrist affordability message. That doesn't mean that they're not willing to embrace more progressive causes. But as of now, Democrats see that as being the winning message.
- [11:16]
Justin Webb
So where are we looking? Where should people be looking this time around for 2026?
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Sumi Somaskanda
Well, there are so many fascinating races in the Senate. I mean, Justin, you know, the Senate's gonna be one of the best things for political junkies like us to watch on election night. And I'm really interested in watching Jon Ossoff. So about a year ago, Jon Ossoff looked like his seat might be. He's a Democrat from Georgia. Senator from Georgia. It might be the most vulnerable Democrat seat or one of the most vulnerable Democrat Senate seats to defend. Fast forward to now. He's launched this campaign that has been pretty effective. And the central message of it has been we have to fight back against corruption and the elitist class. So I mean, here he is speaking at a campaign rally for his reelection last year.
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Political Commentator
And see, this is why nothing works for ordinary people. It's not because of woke college kids or trans students or because there are interracial couples in of spite cereal commercials. It's because the people's elected representatives don't represent the people, they represent the donors. So Trump promised to attack a broken system. I get it. Ripe target. But here's the thing. He's a crook and a con man and he wants to be a king. Yes, the system really is rigged. But Trump's not unrigging it. He's re rigging it for himself.
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Sumi Somaskanda
So Justin, I haven't heard a more, let's say explicit anti corruption, anti elite method from Democrats than that. That could have really broad appeal. And there's a reason that clip went viral. John Ossif is incredibly eloquent. He's young as his opponent, let's say in George has pointed out he's handsome, he speaks well. All of these things really bode well for his chances in the Senate there. Beyond that, he's someone who's already being talked about as a possible future candidate for president because he's able to put his finger on this feeling that people have in this country, which is that the system is rigged. And he's saying, yes, it is rigged, but Donald Trump is not the person to unrig it. And this is how we do it.
- [13:33]
Justin Webb
Are we going to have as well a kind of new generation of people arriving in the House, Democrats arriving in the House. So say they win, I don't know, 20 or 30 seats. Are the people who are going to be there who represent the future of the party? Because that's the point, isn't it? So much of Congress is so I was speaking as an elderly man myself, but it is so elderly, so I can say it. I mean, it's just ludicrously elderly. There are people even older than me who haven't even thought about running for office yet and are probably going to in, I don't know, a decade or two's time. Are we seeing that being swept away? Is there any chance of it this time around?
- [14:12]
Sumi Somaskanda
In a way, yeah. I think Democrats also see this as if they want to win over younger voters. Remember, President Trump was pretty successful among young men in particular. Democrats realized that part of making that argument to young voters is to also have people who look like them, who sound like them, who understand their concerns. And I think also, interestingly, some of the races to look at for the House really speak to the debate within the party about which direction they should go in. Is it the more left wing, progressive side of the party? Is it the more centrist, moderate side of the party? And I think one candidate to look out for is Analilia Mejia. She won the Democratic primary for the seat that Mikey Sherrill, who became governor that she vacated. And she's a former staffer of Bernie Sanders. Bernie Sanders campaigned for her. And although New Jersey and this part of New Jersey is more moderate, Mejia was able to win the primary. And that shocked some people. And it could send a message about where the party could be headed. And so here's a bit of her victory speech in New Jersey in February.
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Analilia Mejia
People will say that this district is not the kind of district in which a progressive or a lefty could win. But it's not about left, Right. It's about right and wrong.
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Emily Gregory
Yes.
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Analilia Mejia
And so when I speak to my neighbors about the fact that we can increasingly feel the pinch, when I talk to my neighbors about how a zip code doesn't protect us from rising violent authoritarianism, my neighbors respond Just like I do, because we live here and we know that we chose to live in New Jersey's 11 because we were desirous of a community in which we could raise our families with justice, with equity and diversity.
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Justin Webb
Right. That's very much the message, isn't it? And she obviously encapsulates it. Well, what could possibly go wrong?
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Sumi Somaskanda
A lot. There was a great, I think, Time magazine headline that I just saw this week that said Trump's in free fall and yet the Democrats could still mess it up. And I think that pretty, pretty much encapsulates where things stand for the Democrats, because no matter how unpopular this president is right now, that doesn't seem to make the Democrats more popular. And in part, remember, we were talking after the election about the possibility that the Democrats are just a toxic brand, that, you know, the Democrats nationally just don't have any sway with the American public right now. They may not trust President Trump on immigration or the economy, but they also don't trust Democrats. And part of the issue that they're going to have is to figure out which direction they're going to take. Is it, you know, more progressive left? Is it more centrist and, and moderate? Is it all of the above? And do they have a message that is beyond anti Trump? Because voters also want to be able to sink their teeth into something. What are you going to do to make my life more affordable? If they don't have a vision for what that is, if it's just I'm not Donald Trump, that could also be a problem for them in picking up a broader swath of the electorate.
- [17:20]
Justin Webb
Yeah. We're going to talk, as we said right at the beginning, to Jim Messina, who knows how to win elections for the Democrats in a second, and I Suspect he's absolutely 100% going to echo that. We ought to make mentioned the governorships as well, maybe one in particular. So when it comes to California, there is a suggestion, isn't there, that the Democrats might be in a bit of a problem there, which you wouldn't expect because this is a highly Democratic state in the, in the modern era. We've got an interesting question from a listener from Marianne who asks this. Can I just ask a little question about California? There are eight Democrats and two Republicans vying for that governorship that Mr. Newsom will be vacating very soon. What are your views? Thank you.
- [18:05]
Sumi Somaskanda
Bye.
- [18:06]
Justin Webb
Well, the, the issue being, Sumi, that it looks at least on paper, as if the Republicans might be in fighting it off between the two of them rather than between them and a Democrat. Why is that?
- [18:21]
Sumi Somaskanda
Yeah, well, you know, it is a question of the candidates who are actually in the running here. So the Democrats have had a hard time in fielding so far a candidate that has been convincing to Democrat voters. You have, for example, the current Congressman, Eric Swalwell, who is in the running. Some of the other candidates are simply haven't been able to build up some traction with voters in California, at least according to polling. And we should also say, yes, California is a blue state, but it does have a tradition of having some Republican governors. Think of Arnold Schwarzenegger, think of Ronald Reagan. Right. So it is not unheard of to have a Republican governor. And if the Democrats can't field a candidate who has enough appeal to a broad swath of the California population, that's going to become a challenge for them.
- [19:13]
Justin Webb
Ah, that's interesting, because I thought it was all about the primary, because they have this weird jungle primary, don't they, where they all just jump in together. And I think people have been worried that the. What, the top two will both be Republicans. But you're saying even if that isn't the case, and actually, I don't think it will be the case because I think the Democrats will sort themselves out and they'll get rid. Won't they have enough of the field to make sure that they are finally represented? But what's really interesting is you're suggesting even if they are represented eventually, and it is a Republican against a Democrat, it's not a surefire thing.
- [19:47]
Sumi Somaskanda
Yeah. And I'll just clarify jungle primaries. When you have this primary election where all the candidates for the same elected office run against each other. So that is part of the issue. I guess what I was referring to is I think it's unlikely that you wouldn't have a Democrat in that top two. And it's very, you know, yes, you do have two Republican candidates running, Chad Bianco and Steve Hilton, who could come in at the top one and two. That is a possibility. But I think it's unlikely that you wouldn't have a Democrat landing in that top two. But imagine if you just. It's like taking all the candidates, putting them in a bottle and shaking them up and seeing where they land.
- [20:28]
Justin Webb
And it's worth saying to British listeners, yes, it is that Steve Hilton, that same Steve Hilton who worked in number 10 for a certain British prime minister not that long ago. So it is an extraordinary fact that Steve Hilton, shortly after he'd worked for David Cameron, gave up on British politics, went to live in America and do other things. And he had a Fox show, didn't he? Sumi, is he, I mean, is he really now a big figure in Republican conservative politics?
- [21:00]
Sumi Somaskanda
I think he thinks he's a big figure in Republican conservative politics, and that's no shade against Steve Hilton. But, you know, on the national stage, he's less known. I think in California, he's made some inroads because he is, you know, known from tv. You've seen him on tv. But that's more a California politics question than a national one.
- [21:18]
Justin Webb
Okay. And I'm taking us off our main subject, which I shouldn't do, and I know you've got to go and do other things. So, Sumi, brilliant to talk to you. Thanks again to you and goodbye to you for the time being.
- [21:27]
Sumi Somaskanda
Bye. Thank you.
- [21:28]
Emily Gregory
Have a good day.
- [21:29]
Justin Webb
And let us turn now to our guest, Jim Messina, who, as I was saying, is a proper strategist. He really has been in the room and in the room a lot. So he was there with Barack Obama when he was elected back in 2008. But really crucially, he ran that 2012 election, that 2012 election, which was not a slam dunk. He had to get Obama over the line, and he managed to do it. Jim, very good to talk to you again.
- [21:55]
Jim Messina
Good to see you.
- [21:56]
Justin Webb
And it's presumably a particular pleasure at the moment to talk about the Democrats, Jim. And it hasn't always been when you've come on the podcast, but I mean, just writ large at the moment. We'll get to some of the downsides in a second. But writ large, when you look at recent election results, it's going well.
- [22:11]
Jim Messina
Well, doing better than you could have expected given our overall messaging challenges. Since Trump took office, Democrats have won over 100 local races around the country. They've overperformed Kamala Harris's numbers by about 10.4%, which in American terms is just a landslide. And we're starting to win seats that we haven't won in a generation. I don't think all of it's due to our greatness. I think it's mostly due to Donald Trump's poor approval ratings. But we can talk a little bit about that going forward.
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Justin Webb
Yeah, we'll definitely get to that, the greatness or no greatness thing in a second. But just to underline, we were mentioning on the podcast recently that local election victory or state election victory down in Florida in a little place called Mar a Lago, or at least the district where Mar a Lago is, which, I mean, you, you Just to underline, you are winning, as you've just said, in places where you really wouldn't expect to.
- [23:09]
Jim Messina
Yeah, that's Donald Trump's home district. That's where he and his wife and son vote. He won that district by 14% in the last election. The Republicans won it in their last local election by 19%. The Democrat, no one knew who they were, but campaigned all on affordability and won a race. And now Donald Trump's home district is represented by a Democrat for the first time in living memory. I can promise you Mar a Lago is not the traditional Democratic territory. But the, but the anger at affordability in the United States provides many bountiful fruits.
- [23:48]
Justin Webb
Yeah. So looking ahead to November, what is a realistic expectation?
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Jim Messina
Definitely to win the House back. I mean, Democrats have got to win the House back. It is the reason for the party right now that we have to put some check on Donald Trump. And I think that's what the voters want, too. So that is job one. We're starting to have, have some shot in the Senate, which is unbelievable given the current map. We could talk about that, but we have got to win Congress back.
- [24:18]
Justin Webb
Yeah. So when it comes to the Senate, we've been mentioning a few times on the POD recently that it is not any longer laughably unlikely. And it was, frankly, wasn't it? Because, as you say of the map, because too many of the seats are too difficult for the Democrats to get to. At least that's what we thought until now.
- [24:41]
Jim Messina
I think that's exactly right. I mean, when you look at the map, it is full of Senate races where Donald Trump won states handily, like Texas, like Iowa, like Alaska, like Montana. And now we're competitive in most of those states. And it has, you know, very little to do with the Democrats. It's just because Trump's numbers have just tanked, especially on the economy. His superpower in three presidential elections was the economy. He beat Kamala Harris in a very close election by 12 points on the economy, and he now is underwater by 29%. That number you and I talked about earlier, that Democrats are overperforming by about 12 points. That is super important because if we were to do that in the Senate races, then you could win an Iowa, you could win a Texas, you could win, you know, an Ohio. And so that just puts the Senate into play. I still, you know, wouldn't bet your college, your kids college endowment on it. I still think it's really hard. Here's a number for the stats nerds on the, on the Podcast. You know, in the past six years in Senate races, only one party has won a state where they didn't win the presidential, and that was the Republicans in Wisconsin. So, you know, Democrats are just trying to do something that is really has not happened in about 10 years. That said, you know, as you know, we've talked about this. I hate polling. I think most pollsters are idiots. But the prediction markets, which are full of way smarter people than you and me, now have the senate at about 50, 50 toss up, which I think is interesting.
- [26:21]
Justin Webb
Yeah. And if it were to happen, what difference would it make?
- [26:25]
Jim Messina
Huge, huge, huge, huge. Because the Senate is where Trump goes to get his appointments through. He doesn't get to appoint some of these crazy people he's put in into these positions. There's no way a Pete Hegseth into park when a war gets confir. There was no way a Kristi Noem at DHS would've gotten confirmed. And so the second thing is, if you have the House and the Senate, Trump's agenda is basically over. He can't do anything. He can't spend money. They can stop him from doing lots of things. And so it effectively would neuter his presidency.
- [27:03]
Justin Webb
Do you believe, given that that is the case, that the election will be free and fair? Because what a lot of people. And you hear this again and again from people on the Democratic side, and you hear it outside the United States as well, with people who think they know about what goes on in the United States saying, well, I just don't believe it's likely that Donald Trump allows this election to go ahead.
- [27:27]
Donald Trump (quoted)
Do you?
- [27:28]
Jim Messina
Oh, I don't think he's gonna. I don't think. I think he's gonna try everything he can to not make this a free and fair election. And you saw that yesterday he signed a blatantly unconstitutional executive order banning mail in voting. Because he thinks wrongly, by the way, but he thinks that Democrats use mail in voting better than Republicans. I would like to remind everyone that in the election you just talked about in Mar a Lago, he and Melania and their son voted by. By mail in ballot. Apparently it's okay for him, but not okay for everyone else. Anyway, he put this executive order saying, no mail in balloting. Well, well, for the folks out there who don't follow this very closely, it's the states who control those decisions. The states decide if there's mail in ballot or not. By the way, his party does better when there's mail in balloting, which his Republican operatives have been trying to say to him. But President Trump is not enamored of opinions not his own. So that is just one thing he's attempting to do. He's also talking about using the National Guard to safeguard, to make sure the elections are safe. You and I both know what authoritarian places do with armies on the streets. It's not a great history here. So he's trying to do all that, but the courts are just routinely rejecting all of these things. Even his own appointment, his own judge appointments have been doing these things. I'm co chair of this thing called Democracy Defenders, which, with the famous American lawyer, Norm Eisen. You have a famous American lawyer and a famous political hack like me coming together to figure out how to make sure we use all the levers to make sure he doesn't do those things. And so, you know, I still believe we are going to get to a fair and free election despite Donald Trump's best efforts.
- [29:23]
Justin Webb
Right. You have hinted, more than hinted, right from the start of this conversation, that you are keeping your excitement about the Democrats under wraps because you believe, Jim, that the party hasn't sorted itself out or what.
- [29:41]
Jim Messina
We have not solved our own problems. We still have the lowest approval rating of any major party. We have the lowest approval. We have a lower approval rating I saw the other day than, than Russia. Like, I don't think that's great. Right. Right now, we are existing kind of because we're the opposition to Donald Trump and people do not like Donald Trump. But if we're going to win a presidential election, which I care more about than Anything else in 2028, we've got to fix our own problems. We win when we have great local candidates who really focus on the affordability issue. And so that's why, you know, everyone's raced over to me saying, Obama's got to get involved, evolved, Bill Clinton's got to come back. We got to do all this. And I keep saying, no, you idiots, what we've got to do. We don't want this to be a national election. We. We want this to be a referendum on Donald Trump. And as you all know, people listening in the UK like, you know, when you have an unpopular prime minister, they lose all sorts of local elections by elections and everything else, because it's a referendum, really on them. And that's what we want this election to be about. But when that's all over, it certainly would be nice for the Democrats to figure out an economic message that makes anyone excited. And currently we don't have that.
- [30:56]
Justin Webb
Let's just focus on that for a second, because people who've also who agree with you about that say that message maybe should be more populist than it has in the past. In other words, the Democrats now pivot, certainly from the Clinton days, the sort of the globalist agenda, the agenda that says free trades are great, great thing. The agenda that says, you know, we need as America to be trading with the whole world. And occasionally that will mean that people get it in the neck in the United States. And that agenda, they say, was then seized on by at least one wing of the Republican Party, part of the MAGA movement. And it got a lot of disaffected people to become Republicans. So they say, Jim, don't they, the solution is for us as well to become more populist, in a sense, more nationalist, more locally focused. Is that the right way to go?
- [31:50]
Jim Messina
Thank you for asking this question. This is like therapy for me because I hate that argument and I hate this fight. I think it's so stupid, but it's real in my party, right? We have these people just going to war saying we need to go populist or we need to not go populist. We need to go back to Bill Clinton. And I think that's exactly wrong. I think what is true is we got to figure out what a unifying message that takes all parts of our party and unifies them together. And that really is around this affordability message. People win. As you know, I have over a dozen presidents and prime ministers around the world as my clients. And you win national elections when you are seen to represent better than your opponent people's economic futures. And that isn't deciding. You're going to side on one side of the populism versus nationalism argument that is getting really granular on how you can make people's lives better. And in these races around the country, you know, there's a difference. We can have differences of focus. Mondani in New York ran a very different campaign than Mikey Sherrill in New Jersey. Just over the bridge, Mikey Sherrill won a landslide election. Mandani won an upset election. But they both focused on affordability. They just did it from different atmospheres, they did it from different proposals, but they were both seen as really authentic, who were speaking truth to power, who had new ideas that people really gravitated around. And I don't think if you asked either one of them, they would say they decided to side with one of the wings of the party. They decided to side with the voters of their constituencies. And I think this is really, really important. I've NOW met with 27 people who tell me they're considering run for President of the United States of America. Basically everyone but you and me is thinking about running as Democrat for President of the United States. And the people that I am really impressed with are authentic, know who they are, haven't pulled all this stuff, have some new ideas that make me say that's interesting. And so I think that's what we should do and we should stop having this little ideological war in our party.
- [34:03]
Justin Webb
Party. Just to be clear, Jim, you're saying that those 27 are talking to you now about 2028?
- [34:12]
Jim Messina
Oh, hell yeah. Because, you know, we are less than seven months away from the midterm elections. And the next day people are going to start calling donors and other folks and people are going to start announcing for president right after Christmas, like there's going to be a full blown presidential election on at the beginning of the year. And you know, people forget Barack Obama announced in January of 2007 that he was running for president in 2008. You've got to move. And these people are starting to test out messages. Here's an interesting thing. Since we're at a long form podcast. The thing I'm looking at is who these candidates who are up in 2026 want to campaign with them. Because that was the first time you thought Barack Obama could beat Hillary Clinton in 2008. Because in the 2006 and every Senate and House candidate wanted Obama. They wanted Obama because he was new and exciting and had ideas. And so when you look at some of these people who aren't at the top of the polls, but I think have room to grow. There are people that are every Senate and governor campaigner calling them and saying, hey, you know, I want you to campaign with me. People like Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, people like Governor of Pennsylvania Josh Shapiro. Neither one of them are at the top of the polls now, but they are just getting swamped for requests. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. And so even though the polls would tell you that Gavin Newsom's ahead, Pete Buttigieg is ahead, Kamala Harris, these other folks are getting way more requests, which I think is an interesting way to think about it. Also, there's one other thing. I think Democrats are going to be way less focused on the social issues because they've seen what two elections of Donald Trump have done to the country and they're going to be desperate to do this little thing you and I like to call winning. And they are going to look at people and say, okay, I care about all these social issues too, but tell me, who the hell can win? Because we do not want J.D. vance to be President of the United States.
- [36:21]
Justin Webb
That's fascinating. You're saying actually you think it's lightly or you just think is what they should do is put those personal things to one side and go for the
- [36:29]
Jim Messina
person who I think it's likely. And this, we've had recent history of this. In the 2020 election, we all fell in love with Mayor Pete and we fell in love with Elizabeth Warren. And, you know, they all led and other folks came to the top. And then literally on one weekend, the entire national Democratic Party decided Joe Biden was the only way they could be Donald Trump. And he went from basically being out of the race, he lost Iowa, lost New Hampshire, to being the nominee in literally two weeks because the entire party woke up and said, nope, none of these people can win. Biden can. War with Biden.
- [37:02]
Justin Webb
Yeah, that's fascinating. If that were to happen, I mean, how different is it going to be in the 28 election for whoever the Democratic candidate is? And I'm thinking about podcasts, but I'm also thinking about social media. This incredible memes that Trump has come up with that deeply upset people. But actually that's often the purpose of the meme, isn't it? How have you got to find someone who's able to campaign in the modern era and maybe does that Trump all that we were talking about right at the beginning of the substance of policy and what their economic policies are, et cetera, et cetera?
- [37:37]
Jim Messina
I think the answer is yes. But, you know, there seems to be, and I wrote a column about this recently, there seems to be this theory in my party that we can just get better at social media. We can get some social media bros and we can get some memes and everything will be okay. Because Kamala didn't go on the those shows and she should have. And if she had, she had won. I think that's missing the point. I think it's missing the point in that authenticity really matters here. You have to actually have a message. You have to be believe what you say. You have to be able to convey it to your smart point in a different way. And you know, right now, the dominant place people are talking about politics is TikTok. You know, you can't give a Barack Obama 10 minute soaring speech on TikTok. You've got to shorten it and you've got to figure out how to do that and like, you know, Gavin Newsom, the governor of California is masterful on that medium and figures out how to do it in short bites. That that makes sense. And that's one of the advantages that his supporters talk about. He's ready to run a national campaign because of that. And so I think it's less about figuring out the new mediums. And I was critical of Kamala for not going on those shows, too. But it's more about being able to, to be authentic and have a very clear message and then fit the format. You can hire nerds like me to figure out that stuff for you. You can't hire nerds like me to make you authentic.
- [39:03]
Justin Webb
Jim, it's such a pleasure to talk to you. I really, really appreciate it. Again, do come back to us during the course of the campaign once it gets going, because you will. If you're not involved, you're certainly going to know what's going on behind the scenes. Thanks again.
- [39:14]
Jim Messina
My pleasure. Take care, guys.
- [39:17]
Justin Webb
Okay, thanks. That's it for today. If you want to listen to our other episodes, you can find them wherever you get your podcasts. And if you want to get in touch, we do read every single message we get. The email is ameracastbc.co.uk, or you can send us a message or a voice note. WhatsApp is 443-301-23-9480. Bye bye.
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