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Are the Democrats ready to win in Texas?
00:25:35
The Senate race in Texas could determine which party controls Congress.
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- [00:00]
Podcast Narrator
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk. Ever wonder why we make the choices we do and how to make smarter ones? Introducing Choiceology, an original podcast from Charles Schwab. Join Wharton Professor Katie Milkman, an award winning behavioral scientist and author of the best selling book how to Change as she shares true stories from Nobel laureates, authors, athletes and everyday people about why we do the things we do and how to make better choices to help avoid costly mistakes. Each episode covers the latest research in behavioral science and dives into themes like the power of self control, shaping your mindset for success, navigating new beginnings and why starting over can feel so hard. Listen to Choiceologywab.com podcast or wherever you listen.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
we have just witnessed one of the fiercest and the most expensive primary races in U.S. state history. The battle to decide who's going to be Texas's Republican candidate for senator. Donald Trump had turned his back on the long serving senator from Texas and backed a really controversial outsider instead. That sets up a midterm election that could actually be competitive for the Democrats. Did Donald Trump just put Texas in play? Welcome to AmericasT.
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BritBox Advertiser
AmericasT.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
AmericasT from BBC News. You hear that, John? Oh, I think when I hear that sound it reminds me of money.
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Senator Thom Tillis
We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it.
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Political Commentator
This is a big cover up and
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BritBox Advertiser
this administration is engaged in it.
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Political Commentator
This, this guy has Trump derangement syndrome.
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James Talarico
I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Hello, it's Sarah in the BBC's bureau in Washington.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
And it's Anthony right here with Sarah in Washington D.C. just you and me,
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Anthony, running the show from Washington instead of what the others insist on wrongly calling the worldwide headquarters of AmericasT. But it's Texas going to be focusing on the great state of Texas, as they say, and one of your favorites,
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
one of the biggest, one of the best, the big enchilada, as Richard Nixon once called Texas. And we're talking about it because it could be a key battleground in November's midterm elections in part because of what happened there in the Republican Senate primary race on Tuesday night?
- [03:06]
Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Yeah, so we saw the sitting senator, who's been there for 23 years, John Cornyn, defeated. He will not be running for the Republicans in November. Instead, it will be the Attorney general, Ken Paxton, who is quite a controversial figure, shall we say? A lot of people say he's less likely to win. Maybe this puts the state of Texas in play come November. But Donald Trump backed Ken Paxton, and he thanked him for that in his victory speech on Tuesday night.
- [03:33]
Donald Trump
And then there's one person who I think you might know. President Donald J. Trump. When everyone in Washington told him to abandon me and abandon the people of Texas, he didn't listen. Instead, he gave his complete and total endorsement. President Trump is the leader of our party, and his endorsement in this most power is the most powerful force in politics.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
So he's thanking Donald Trump there for his endorsement and obviously thinks that it made a difference. Why did Trump back him and not? I mean, we've seen him go after Republicans in Congress who he thinks were disloyal to him or voted against him. But John Cornyn hadn't done any of that. He'd been pretty good to Donald Trump.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Pretty good, yeah. He campaigned on his ties to Donald Trump. His campaign website had pictures of him and Donald Trump. He tried to name a state highway after Donald Trump in legislation a couple of weeks ago. He really wanted Donald Trump's endorsement. And for a time, it looked like he might actually get get it. But what Trump focused on, I guess, was that Cornyn wasn't quite as enthusiastic in supporting Donald Trump's 2024 reelection bid. Cornyn said that Trump had been passed by and that he didn't realize that in order to win elections, he has to reach out to more than just the base. So Cornyn ultimately came around and endorsed Donald Trump. But clearly the President has a long memory, at least when it comes to personal slights.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
And Ken Paxton as well, was running as a more kind of MAGA type candidate. But it's not as though Trump got behind him at the beginning. I mean, it was only a week ago that he finally picked which Republican he was going to give his endorsement to.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Right. Paxton was going to win this race. I think people who had been following this and understood Texas politics were pretty confident that Cornyn was going down even without Donald Trump's endorsement of Paxton. And the reason was that Paxton ran a very Trumpian kind of campaign. He did run as more Trumpian than Cornyn. He attacked Cornyn as being a Washington Insider as too much of an establishment, too weak, too timid, too old. All of the things that we've heard Donald Trump say when he's been campaigning for the past 10 years, and it was effective. Cornyn, for his part, was attacking Paxton's being corrupt and having too much baggage and being a weaker candidate in November's general election. But none of that seemed to make a difference. There were a lot of Texas Republican voters, particularly in the runoff, where it's a smaller electorate, a more conservative, more right wing electorate. All of that made it much more likely that Paxton could win by saying he's the Trump one, even if Trump hadn't endorsed him.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
But you think that Trump got behind him because he was going to win and then he could notch it up as a victory. Right, Rather than him really being heavily invested in who became the Republican candidate.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Yeah, I definitely felt that way, that Trump was following his base here. He needed to weigh in. He needed to find another feather for his endorsement Cap. I've read a lot of coverage saying that this is just another show of Donald Trump's endorsement power. And I think that Paxton, the size of Paxton's victory was reflected in Donald Trump's endorsing. I think Cornyn's people just stayed home in the runoff because they knew that the game was up. But Trump, I think, wanted to be able to get out in front of this, and that's what he did. And then Donald Trump threw all this stuff about Cornyn being disloyal when in honesty, that was overstating the case, I think.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
But what he's done as a result is possibly make Texas more competitive. Cause as you mentioned, Ken Paxton comes with quite a lot of baggage. There's an attractive, young, exciting Democratic candidate that's going to be running against them. And so you've got significant amounts of the Republican Party a bit worried about this. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is speaking his mind these days because he's retiring from the Senate. So he doesn't mind about getting on the wrong side of Donald Trump. And last night after the result on cnn, he did not hold back in his criticism of Ken Paxton.
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Senator Thom Tillis
And to call Paxton ethically challenged is to call Jeffrey Dahmer suffering from an eating disorder. This guy is an empty suit and will do us no service by being in the US Congress. I hope the Texans realize how tough John Cornyn is, how pro Second Amendment he is, how pro limited government he is, how pro America first he is. And when they go to the polls on Tuesday, I hope that they know that They've got a great American who deserves reelection. And the other guy is going to be nothing but an anchor on our conference for as long as he's in the U.S. senate.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
You know, Cornyn hammered Paxton with tens of millions of dollars in television advertising, highlighting all of those doubts that people might have had about Paxton and in fact, the Republican Senate Campaign Committee. So not just Cornyn, but this is the committee that handles electing Republicans in Senate contests across the country. They were running negative ads attacking Paxton for being ethically corrupt. And you hear it time and time again, all of these hits on him, he still won. Despite these doubts, he still was able to get a majority, a large majority of Republican voters to support him. Although I will also add that turnout in this runoff was down considerably compared to March where Cornyn finished slightly ahead of Paxton. So it wasn't necessarily that a lot of people switched over to Paxton after Donald Trump endorsed him or because of the campaign over the past month and a half. It was more that Cornyn's people stayed home. And that could be a reflection of they just gave up the ship because it was clear they Paxton was gonna win. And it was clear that Donald Trump had thrown his weight behind Paxton. So it was a lost cause.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
And that's a really important point to make about primaries because, I mean, they're better than opinion polls and there's actually people turning up and casting their votes. So it's real data for us to use to try and look at what's happening among the electorate. But it's a very self selecting bit of the electorate. It's not as though all of Texas or all of the potential Republican voters in Texas went out. It's the hardcore who go and vote in primaries, isn't it? It's the most passionately committed and sometimes right wing or the most left wing, the ones, you know, people who are more extreme in their political views are the ones who tend to come out in primaries. So that's why you sometimes get a more MAGA or a more progressive candidate with the Democrats getting selected there. And talking of Democrats, there is a question specifically for you, Anthony, that has come in from Will in Leicestershire and he asks, as you are americast's resident Texan, which of course you are very proud Texan, he wants to ask you about your thoughts for the Senate race there. Do you think Texas might now elect a Democrat senator in November? And that would be a very big deal. I know you're bound to know off the top of your head, when was the last time there was a Democrat returned to the Senate from Texas, LLOYD
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
BENSON, In 1988, it would be, to answer this question, a remarkable feat for Democrats to win this seat. Having covered Texas politics for decades, I've heard Texas Democrats talk about how Texas was going to become a swing state that is going to go blue or at least purple for decades. It seems like it's always just around the corner and then it never happens. Beto O' Rourke ran against Ted Cruz in 2018, and he came within a handful of percentage points, just a few hundred thousand votes from beating Ted Cruz. That is as close as any Democrat has come to winning a Senate seat in most young people's lifetimes. And what he did was it was a Democratic wave election. He ran as a centrist. Cruz was somewhat controversial, had some people who didn't like him, and it still came up short. Now we're also getting the same kind of perhaps series of events that need to happen for this to be a serious contest, which is Tallarica running as a centrist. He's pro oil and gas. He is pro border security. He tries to fashion himself as someone who is in touch with Texas values, although we'll see how Republicans are attacking him in a bit. An unpopular or at least controversial opponent who is not even an incumbent like Ted Cruz was. And it also is shaping up to be what could be a Democratic wave election with an unpopular president and Donald Trump concerns about affordability. So if all of those things combine, that is why, as you mentioned earlier, that this race has been moved by the Cook Political Report from likely Republican to leans Republican. This is gonna be a race that Republicans are gonna have to fight to win. And that in itself is pretty remarkable.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
And back to James Tallarico. People are very excited about him. And I'll tell you what I've noticed when I've been talking to friends back home in Britain, his name comes up a lot. I mean, this is somebody who is not holding office at the moment at all. But people keep asking me, who is he? Is he as good as everybody says is? Is he going to be the Democratic nominee in 2028? People are asking me, which would be a bit of a stretch even if he wins this seat. But, I mean, I think it's a sign of how much excitement there is behind him.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
He's raised tens of millions of dollars, so clearly he has been able to make an impression on the national stage. If you remember, there was that thing where he was on the Colbert show, the Stephen Colbert show, late night show, and some of his responses or his appearance was. Was cut because he. It was a question of equal time, and they have to give time to Republicans or another Democrat. And that kind of elevated his platform. Kind of the Streisand effect, where you do something trying to keep people from finding out about someone and then everyone finds out about that thing. He's a former seminarian, so he is able to speak to evangelical conservatives, evangelical Christians, in a way that a lot of Democrats may not be able to. As I mentioned, he does try to position himself as a centrist, although he also has some comments in the past that are more tilted towards liberal social policies, talking about transgender rights and talking about LBGTQ issues. And that I think might end up coming back certainly is going to be used by Republicans to attack him as too liberal for Texas. But at least for now, there are a lot of people on the national stage who feel like he is the perfect candidate to be able to win in a place like Texas. And he is. He's a pretty good stump speaker. He's pretty charismatic. He's pretty quick on his feet. It'll make an interesting contrast with him going up against Paxton.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Yeah, he sounded pretty excited about the fact that he's going up against Paxton. This was him after the results came in on Tuesday night.
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James Talarico
Something just happened in Texas. The most corrupt politician in America just became the Republican nominee for the United States Senate. If we the people can come together to defeat the most corrupt politician in America, we can defeat this entire corrupt system. We can start unrigging this economy. We can start raising our pay, cutting our taxes, lowering our costs. We can finally get ahead. It's time to come together. The people versus Ken Paxton.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
And he also made an explicit pitch on Tuesday to Cornyn supporters, saying that he didn't always agree with everything that Cornyn has said and done, but that they both believe in the value of public service. So he thinks he can win over some of these disaffected Republicans who may not like Paxton. And I know there are a lot of Cornyn supporters out there who despise Paxton just the same way that there were a lot of Paxton supporters out there who really hated Cornyn. So we'll see if the party can come together or if Talarico can take advantage of those rifts. And the other interesting thing to listen to there in that clip was he started by talking about how Paxton is corrupt. But as we've seen, just saying a candidate is corrupt or has personal issues isn't enough to beat them.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
We know, though, what Kempax and The Republicans will use against Talaria what their playbook's going to be of their arguments against them. And one of the things they're most likely to say is I've heard him using a clip where he talks not just about there being only two genders, he suggests there are six genders. And he even says that God is not male, God is not female. God is non binary. Can you win anywhere in America, but most particularly in Texas, if you say God is non binary, that sounds like, you know, practically disqualifying, isn't it?
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Yeah, I mean, I guess you could see his point, right, that God is bigger than any one gender. I also think he may have said cisgender and the people just misheard him and said it was six genders. But yes, I mean, that is the stuff that Republicans are going to target on him. They're going to say and point to these past comments, particularly on social issues, issues of transgender rights, that there are a lot of that will animate a lot of conservative voters in Texas and get them out to the polls to vote against him. And that was a playbook against Beto o', Rourke, Beta o' Rourke, as the Republicans used to call him. And the Republicans are calling Talarico Talafrico and Low T Talarico and all of these different nicknames because he's not, he doesn't look like a kind of a macho guy necessarily. He's kind of looks mild mannered. He's kind of soft skinned.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
He's really young.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
He looks young.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
So he's 37, isn't he? He looks 27.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Yeah, he looks, he looks, he looks younger than his age. So, I mean, that is. They're going to hit him on the macho thing, which Donald Trump ran on in 2024 and, and probably made headway into, into younger male voters, as we've talked about in the past. And, and definitely Ken Paxton's going to do the same thing. In fact, Ken Paxton at his victory party on Tuesday night was already on the attack against Talarico, as we hear in this clip.
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Donald Trump
My opponent is the most extreme radical the Democrats have ever nominated. He's even running a vegan campaign, whatever that is. He goes by a few names that you may all have heard of. Some people know him as Tofu Talarico. Some people call him Six Gender Jimmy.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Now, that vegan campaign that Paxton says he's running, this is because he has accused Talarico of being a vegan, which he absolutely refutes. In fact, he says that he's been eating barbecue, the famous Texas dish, since before Ken Paxton's first indictment, which is quite, quite a good line.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
That's a sting.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Yeah, but, yeah, I mean, is that the biggest insult you can level at somebody in Texas?
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
I mean, you know, we love our red meat barbecue, our brisket and our ribs and all of that. So, yeah, try to paint Talarico as weak, as outside the mainstream, as not Texan enough. I mean, if you look at the television campaigns in Texas, it's all about wearing cowboy boots and driving trucks. I mean, there is this Texas sense of machismo and identity that is kind of built into the ingrained in the spirit of the state.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
And actually wearing cowboy hats and Stetsons as well in a non ironic way.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Right?
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
No, I think it's one of the best things about Texas. You go and see men wandering around in these hats as though it's a perfectly normal candy.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
It covers your, covers your head. You know, it gives you lots of shade. If you're out in the, in the wild, you could use it as a bowl and scoop up water and drink out of it. There are a lot of uses.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
You wear a Stetson in Texas.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
I don't wear a Stetson. I wear cowboy boots. But I've not been a big cowboy hat person. Maybe I should just to keep up the image.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Back to James Tallarico, of course, the attacks on him, accusing him of being a vegan, talking about his stance on transgender issues. That's about trying to paint him as a. A radical left progressive, the type of which you might find running in New York or California. And it's really not him, is it?
- [19:49]
Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Not him? He is, as I mentioned, he's a former seminarian. He's the state legislator who has a pretty centrist voting record there. They're going to find these lines that he had that they're going to try to use against him over and over again to try to push him outside of the mainstream. And one of the reasons why Democrats rallied around him as their nominee rather than someone like Jasmine Crockett, who was the firebrand congresswoman from Dallas, who was his primary opponent, who had been an outspoken Trump critic, was because they think that Talarico could reach a larger audience. He did pretty well among Hispanic voters in that primary, a little worse off against black voters. But Jasmine Crockett's black, and so that probably was part of it. But also he is going to have some work to do to win over black voters in Texas. I think that much is also clear. He needs to consolidate the Democratic base, he needs to be able to reach out to disaffected Republicans because there are more Republicans than Democrats in Texas. He's going to need to win independents. It's a hard road to do.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Yeah, we should round off, I guess, with whether or not with or without Texas, the Democrats really can take the Senate because that would be huge if they can win a majority in the Senate. Senate in November. They need four seats, don't they? And actually, Texas isn't one of their targets.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Texas isn't on the highest list that the, that the national Democrats have come out with. They have to flip four seats. The two obvious targets which we've talked about in the past are North Carolina, where Thom Tillis, who we heard a clip from there, is retiring. There's a popular governor who is running, Roy Cooper, who is running and leads in that race. So they think they could pick that up. There's the Maine race, which we've also talked about.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
That's an exciting one with another exciting Democratic candidate from outside the mainstream. Oyster farmer.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Yes, the oyster farmer. They think they can knock off Susan Collins, who is a longtime incumbent there. So that gets you to two, and then you have to start winning states that Donald Trump won pretty comfortably in 2024. Ohio's an interesting one. Sherrod Brown is running to win back a Senate seat there. He had been defeated, but he's a popular kind of grassroots progressive, but also codes in the way that Ohioans like. So Ohio is a possibility. Alaska is a possibility. Mary Patola, who won statewide in Alaska as a Democratic congresswoman, is running to unseat an incumbent there, and polls show she's doing quite well there. Iowa is another possible target the Democrats are spending money on. So you'd have to win two of those three. Or if you win Texas, that. That opens up things even more. Now, Democrats would also hold on, have to hold on to Michigan, which, which Republicans are targeting, and Georgia with the Jon Ossoff seat, which Republicans hope to be able to wrest away. So it's still a long shot, but if Texas becomes a state that's in play, it makes the path look considerably easier.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Yeah. And Texas, for all its enormous size, still only has the same number of senators as tiny Rhode island or Delaware. But would it be symbolic? Would it be meaningful to actually see Texas go Democrat?
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
It would give a lot of hope to Texas Democrats who have not had a whole lot of reason to have hope year after year, election after election, where they think they might have a chance and then come up short, it also would raise eyebrows because Texas has long been the California of the Republican Party, this bedrock conservative state that they can rely on as an electoral base time and time again on presidential level. So it would be a chink in the Republican armor, and it would also be a very real message to Donald Trump and the Trump Republicans that one of their guys, Ken Paxton, who ran as a Trumpier than Trump, could lose in Texas. That might give an opening for different kinds of Republicans maybe to start distancing themselves from Donald Trump and trying to forge a path ahead that isn't as closely tied to Trumpism as Ken Paxton is.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Yeah, because that's another thing. We'll be scrutinizing those results in November, won't we, to tell us what it means for 2028 and whether the future is Trump or whether it's more moderate Republicanism or what direction the parties going to go in when he can't run again. Assuming he doesn't run again.
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Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Yeah. I just love talking about Texas politics, you know, and. And I'm excited that it actually is relevant here and that we're going to be paying attention to a Texas race come. Come November because it is a fascinating state and the politics there is so much fun. So this. This will be one to keep on our radars for some time.
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Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Well, and it means we can go there and cover this race for the midterm elections, which I'm excited about as well. I have been completely one round by Texas. I really enjoy it now. I have to say, when I first started covering American politics, I didn't. But that's because George W. Bush was president and I was going to Midland and Odessa and the oil towns that he came from, which are not the finest that Texas has. But now that I've been to Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, El Paso, I'm a fan.
- [25:08]
Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
There are some fun towns. My dad used to teach out in El Paso. And you couldn't fly direct from Austin to El Paso back in the 80s. You had to fly through Midland and Odessa, this bleak oil country. And I remember I was always on these flights with these unattended miners because the kids, the family would move to Odessa. And then the wives were like, we don't want to do this. They would move back to Austin or the big city, and the kids would shuttle back and forth between mom and dad while the dad did all the oil work. It's not, no offense to Midland, no offense to Amarillo, all those towns, but it is. It is pretty bleak country.
- [25:43]
Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
Yeah. And I think one of my favorite places I've visited actually in the US is Marfa, Texas. I really, really am like that. And Big Ben national park is high on my list of places to visit before I leave. So yeah, I'm a fan of Texas races. Getting newsworthy.
- [25:58]
Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
AmeriCast field trip to Texas. Let's plan on it.
- [26:00]
Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)
That's a good one. Yes, yes. Anyway, right, well, we'll go off and make our plans for that. But in the meantime, say bye.
- [26:07]
Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Bye. Bye. All right,
- [26:13]
AmericasT Producer
Thank you for answering our call and continuing to send your messages to us. We do read every single one. We love to hear your thoughts, your feedback and questions as well. So please do keep them coming. You can send us an email. It's americastbc.co.uk the WhatsApp is 443-301-23-9480 and you can get involved in the AmericasT Discord server. The link to that is in the descri. And don't forget to subscribe. That way you will never miss an episode. Until next time.
- [26:46]
Anthony (AmericasT Co-host)
Bye.
- [27:02]
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