Can Trump persuade Americans to ignore oil prices and back his war on Iran?

Summary

Americast Podcast Episode Summary

Episode Title: Can Trump persuade Americans to ignore oil prices and back his war on Iran?
Date: March 11, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Rainsford, Anthony Zurcher (BBC News)
Setting: Sarah reports on location from Louisville, Kentucky; Anthony is in Washington, D.C.

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Overview

In this episode, Americast analyzes President Donald Trump’s efforts to persuade the American public to support his war on Iran, despite rising oil prices and widespread economic anxieties. The hosts, Sarah Rainsford and Anthony Zurcher, examine the mixed messaging coming from the White House, the impact of military action on domestic and global oil markets, the administration's political maneuvering, and how deeply both the legacy of the Iraq war and concerns about prolonged conflict are informing current American sentiment.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Messaging on the War in Iran

• Trump’s public statements about the war are inconsistent, oscillating between declaring military success and signaling further escalation.
  • Quote: “Well, I think you could say it both. The beginning. It's the beginning of building a new country... or we could go further. And we're going to go further.” — Donald Trump [05:48]
• The President attempts to frame the military campaign as both completed (“tremendous success”) and ongoing, adjusting the narrative based on economic and political needs.
• This ambiguity is seen as potentially intentional, giving Trump leeway to declare victory or continue fighting as he sees fit.

2. Rising Oil Prices and Economic Impact

• The spike in global oil prices, linked to instability in the Strait of Hormuz, becomes a major political liability for Trump.
  • Quote: “I think it is pretty clear that the President is starting to get really, really worried about oil prices and the impact that could have domestically.” — Sarah Rainsford [04:48]
• The administration’s attempts to “talk down” oil prices and signal impending victory are juxtaposed with more hawkish statements from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, heightening public confusion.
• Trump’s economic credibility is staked on keeping gas prices low, but the war threatens this metric during an already inflationary period.
  • Quote: “If his single best metric for his economic performance is getting away from him... how on earth does he sell his economic agenda to Americans in advance of the midterms?” — Sarah Rainsford [20:13]

3. War Objectives and Endgame Ambiguity

• The administration vacillates between broad calls for “unconditional surrender” by Iran and less clear definitions of victory.
  • Quote: “On Friday, he said that he would only accept Iran's unconditional surrender... but that clip… didn't sound like unconditional surrender was on the table anymore.” — Anthony Zurcher [08:37]
• Some Republican hawks, like Lindsey Graham, see anything short of regime change as a failure.
• Trump appears to be leaving the door open for a flexible end, possibly to allow for a quick exit if domestic costs rise.

4. Public and Veteran Sentiment

• Interviews with Kentucky veterans (Trump supporters) show belief in Trump’s promise to avoid a quagmire and skepticism that this will lead to another nation-building effort.
  • Quote: “They seemed very convinced that Donald Trump wouldn’t get them into a lengthy war because he’d promised not to.” — Sarah Rainsford [10:12]
• Nonetheless, there’s awareness that ongoing issues or troop deaths could erode support.

5. International Complications: Israel and Russia

• Israel’s interests may diverge from America’s, suggesting the U.S. may not control the duration or scope of the conflict.
  • Quote: “It’s not gonna be Donald Trump’s choice alone to end this war. There is another party involved... and that’s Israel.” — Anthony Zurcher [11:25]
• The U.S. waives Russian oil sanctions to tamp down prices despite Russia’s suspected intelligence sharing with Iran, making Russia a “big winner.”
  • Quote: “With Donald Trump, Putin just wins every single time. It's absolutely remarkable.” — Sarah Rainsford [18:49]

6. Military and Economic Strategy

• Iran retains leverage via the Strait of Hormuz, able to disrupt shipping with minimal resources and drive up oil prices.
  • Quote: “20% of the world's oil... can’t get through there just now because they're worried about being hit.” — Sarah Rainsford [12:18]
• The administration claims to be preparing further military and economic options but provides few specifics.
  • Press Secretary Caroline Levitt: “Rest assured, to the American people, the recent increase in oil and gas prices is temporary, and this operation will result in lower gas prices in the long term.” [16:23]

7. Political Calculations and Congressional Oversight

• Trump launched the war under the War Powers Act without Congressional authorization, likely betting on a quick resolution.
  • Quote: “I wonder if he, he probably thinks that this will be over before 60 days have elapsed. But it would be a really hard sell...to Congress, wouldn’t it?” — Sarah Rainsford [22:53]
• Both hosts note the risk that, if the conflict drags on, the economic costs and war fatigue could prompt Congress or the public to force an end to the war.

8. Potential for ‘Rally Round the Flag’ Effect

• Historically, Americans are reluctant to criticize war efforts or the President in conflict’s early days, but support depends on casualties and economic pain.
  • Quote: “There’s always a patriotic rallying around the flag effect... But yeah, I'm going to try and investigate how long they would be prepared to maintain that support.” — Sarah Rainsford [25:46]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Donald Trump’s Dual Narrative: “We could call it a tremendous success right now... Or we could go further. And we're going to go further.” [05:48]
• On Talking Down Oil Prices: “He started talking about the war being nearly over, trying to signal that it’s not going to be a long, drawn out conflict.” — Sarah Rainsford [04:48]
• On the Straits of Hormuz: “They can mess up shipping through the Straits of Hormuz... that's what's putting the oil price up.” — Sarah Rainsford [12:18]
• Congressional Warning: “On the Strait of Hormuz, they had NO PLAN, all caps. I can't go into more detail... suffice it to say, right now they don’t know how to get it safely back open, which is unforgivable.” — Cited from Sen. Chris Murphy [14:27]
• On Waiving Russia Sanctions: “It’s really remarkable... Russia ends up being the beneficiary of some of this because they're waiving some of the oil sanctions on Russia.” — Sarah Rainsford [18:09]
• On Public Support: “The American public is not in favor of this war... the public is not interested in supporting it.” — Anthony Zurcher [18:49]
• On The Cost of War: “By some estimates, this war is costing a billion dollars a day.” — Anthony Zurcher [23:04]

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Trump’s shifting war narrative: [01:27–05:49], [07:36–08:37]
• Veteran interviews and Kentucky perspective: [10:12–11:25]
• Straits of Hormuz and shipping risks: [12:18–15:32]
• Press conference on oil prices: [15:32–16:14]
• White House messaging on economic strategy: [16:14–17:07]
• Debate over Russia sanctions: [18:09–18:49]
• Public opinion polling and political risk: [18:49–21:03]
• Congressional oversight and War Powers Act: [22:33–24:24]
• Sarah’s investigative approach in Kentucky: [25:46–27:00]

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Tone & Language Highlights

• The episode maintains a journalistic, analytic tone, blending on-the-ground reporting with expert insight.
• The hosts openly acknowledge Trump’s inconsistent messaging, the political tightrope he walks, and the seriousness of the economic repercussions of the war.
• There’s a narrative undercurrent about the unpredictability of war and the difficulty political leaders face when domestic priorities clash with foreign ambitions.

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Summary

This episode provides a timely, thorough exploration of President Trump's attempt to convince Americans that his war in Iran will not lead to economic hardship, while simultaneously wrestling with the very real consequences of rising oil prices, vague war aims, and public skepticism. The dialogue between Sarah Rainsford and Anthony Zurcher sheds light on the internal contradictions of the administration’s messaging, the influence of international actors (including Russia and Israel), and the potential for economic and political fallout at home. Through expert commentary and grassroots interviews, the hosts raise critical questions about how long Trump can maintain public support and whether he can escape the historical pattern of foreign wars turning into domestic liabilities.

Transcript

[Sarah Rainsford]

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[Sarah Rainsford]

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[Sarah Rainsford]

Is President Trump losing control of the narrative on Iran? The question remains, will the president pull American forces out as soon as possible or has he started something that's now too big to extricate himself from? The messaging from the president continues to be inconsistent.

[Journalist/Interviewer]

Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote, very complete, but your defense secretary says this is just the beginning. So which is it and how long should Americans be?

[Donald Trump]

Well, I think you could say it both. The beginning. It's the beginning of building a new country. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here. I could call it. Or we could go further. And we're going to go further.

[Sarah Rainsford]

So what is the big priority now for Donald Trump? Is it the military objectives he said at the beginning, or will the rising price of oil and gas dictate what he feels he has to do next on Iran? Welcome to AmericasT. AmericasT.

[Journalist/Interviewer]

AmericasT from BBC News.

[Donald Trump]

You hear that sound? Oh, I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money. We didn't start this war, but under

[Sarah Rainsford]

President Trump, we are finishing it.

[Journalist/Interviewer]

This is a big cover up and this administration is engaged in it.

[Sarah Rainsford]

This guy has Trump derangement syndrome.

[Donald Trump]

I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.

[Sarah Rainsford]

Hello, it's Sarah here and I'm in Louisville, Kentucky this morning.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Louisville, Kentucky. How exciting it is, Anthony. I am back in Washington, D.C. it's super exciting, Anthony.

[Sarah Rainsford]

First of all, it's a new state for me. I've never been to Kentucky before. So it's A new fridge magnet on the wall in my office. But I am loving being in the South. I've just come from breakfast in the hotel where the lady there wished me a blessed morning sugar. I just thought, this is fantastic. This is why you want to come out and about in America. But the reason I come to Louisville is because President Trump's gonna be here later today and he's on a tour, going to Ohio and Kentucky, parading his affordability agenda, basically getting out and about, trying to tell voters he really does care about the cost of living, about inflation and all of the economic reasons why he was elected in the first place. And he has to do it now because of the worries about the rising oil prices, what that's going to mean for gas prices, petrol prices at the pump, actually, and inflation all the way, the economy. And in order, I think, to persuade the public that there might be some short term economic pain, but it's all going to be okay. He probably has to convince voters that he's in control of the situation with this war in Iran, that it's not spiraling beyond his control. And that's the big question, Anthony, do you think he can convince people of this at this point?

[Anthony Zurcher]

I mean, I don't know what you're going to hear from people in Kentucky. When I was in Texas last week, they weren't convinced. They were nervous. Even Trump supporters were uneasy that this could become a quagmire. The shadow of the Iraq war is still looming over any kind of US Military operation in the Middle East. And at least so far, while the Trump administration likes to boast about all of the military tactical victories, they have, the strategic concerns, I think that's going to be a tougher job for Trump to convince people of, especially when, like you said, if the economy's struggling, if gas prices are going up and Trump is now after the fact telling them they have to make sacrifices when a didn't really talk about it before the war. I mean, that's, that's a big challenge. And, and I'm not sure, you know, I'll be, I'll be curious to see when, when you're there, how he, he goes about trying to do that.

[Sarah Rainsford]

I don't know if you agree with me, Anthony, but I think it is pretty clear that the President is starting to get really, really worried about oil prices and the impact that that could have domestically in America. As we were seeing them climb on Monday and spiking to new highs, he started talking about the war being nearly over, trying to signal that it's not going to be a long, drawn out conflict. And he was trying to talk oil prices down quite successfully, actually. He managed to do that because he was talking before the markets had finished. But the result was he was sending out quite an inconsistent message because on Sunday we had the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, saying this is just the beginning as he was threatening Iran with more, bigger bombs, a wider campaign. And then suddenly we've got Donald Trump on Monday speaking at a press conference in Florid and saying this.

[Journalist/Interviewer]

Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote, very complete, but your Defense Secretary says this is just the beginning. So which is it and how long should Americans be?

[Donald Trump]

Well, I think you can say it both the beginning, it's the beginning of building a new country. But they certainly, they have no navy, they have no air force, they have no anti aircraft equipment. It's all been blown up. They have no radar, they have no telecommunications and they have no leadership. It's all gone. So, you know, you could look at that statement. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it. Or we could go further. And we're going to go further. But the big risk on that war has been over for three days. We wiped them out the first in the first two days. When you think about it, it's incredible. We wiped out a big navy, very powerful navy. You know, these were ships, these were serious ships. These were ships that you buy when you want to win battles. They're all, they're all on the bottom floor. The sailors are all running off their ships. They refuse to get on the ships. The air force is gone. Everything's gone. The missiles are down to a trickle. This went very quickly. We talked about that with President Putin. He was very impressed with what he saw because nobody has ever seen anything quite like it. You know, Iran was a very powerful military country with all of the missiles. Now you had the double attack, you had the original attack with us and Israel and that knocked them for a loop. Then you had the B2 bombers which took out their nuclear capability and they would have had a nuclear weapon within two weeks to four weeks. And they would have used it long before this press conference. And we might have had a much different press conference if we had a press conference at all. But it's been amazing.

[Anthony Zurcher]

There you have it, Sarah. It is a beginning and the ending. You can't get much clearer than that, can you?

[Sarah Rainsford]

Well, I think he gave the game away in the middle there where he said I could call it a success right now, but we're going to carry on because a lot of people have been complaining that Donald Trump hasn't really laid out what exactly the objectives of this war are, what victory would look like, precisely what it is they're trying to achieve with these military strikes. But often with Donald Trump, that's deliberate, isn't it, Anthony? As long as you don't actually prescribe what the end looks like, you can just say it's over at any point. Which suits you because of domestic politics, because of rising oil prices, because of whatever. He can just declare success, as he said right there, I could call it a success right now. And if in a couple of days time or a couple of weeks time, he thinks this war isn't doing him any good anymore, he'll say, well, what we've achieved is what we set out to achieve. It's a crowning success, mission accomplished, game over.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Right. On Friday, he said that he would only accept Iran's unconditional surrender, which, I mean, that's pretty clearly defined once Iran to give up and agree to all of the American's terms. And, and some of the terms they've laid out was no longer threatening the region, no longer threatening American allies, totally abandoning any kind of nuclear program. But then, yeah, that clip, it didn't sound like unconditional surrender was on the table anymore. And in fact, I think when they asked Pete Hegseth in another press conference recently about it, he just said unconditional surrender means that Iran is no longer able to fight back, which is a totally different sort of thing. Now, when you say what the objectives are and if the United States could just declare victory and go home, I think there was an interesting quote from Lindsey Graham, the Republican senator from South Carolina, who has long been an Iran hawk, who has been really celebrating this military action as necessary. And he said that any kind of end to this conflict, that leaves an ayatollah, the ayatollah, the mullahs in charge of Iran, is a failure. It's not a success. So I think if Trump does pull out now and say, okay, we're done, and the regime is still there, then I think the concern is that it's only a matter of time before a regime that now is maybe even more openly hostile to the United States, more wary of negotiating with the United States, is going to be there and slowly start to build back and nothing effectively has changed.

[Sarah Rainsford]

Yeah, because he was talking about regime change at the very beginning as well. And it doesn't look as though that's going to happen by the people of Iran rising up and seizing their moment, as he was encouraging them to in the first couple of days of the war. So I've already grabbed a couple of conversations with army veterans down here in Kentucky, both of whom served in Iraq, and they were really interesting. I thought they would be very, very worried about the fears of getting embroiled in a long war, that this was gonna turn into nation building, that we would see the IR adventure played out again in Iran. And they seemed very, very clear that that wasn't what Donald Trump was interested in. They were both Trump voters, Trump supporters. They said Iran had been needing to be dealt with for decades. They were very clear that Iran was a sponsor of terror around the world and in the region, that it was essential to stop them getting a nuclear weapon. And they seemed very convinced that Donald Trump wouldn't get them into a lengthy war because he'd promised not to. And I said, but if the price of that is that you have to leave this regime in charge, possibly more dedicated now to achieving a nuclear weapon and attacking the west, is that still mission accomplished? And they seemed pretty happy, actually, that Donald Trump could sell that as a success.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yeah, that's kind of what I heard in Texas last week, with people saying Trump supporters saying that they trusted Trump, that he promised that they would not be involved in a quagmire, and they believed him. But the reality is that it's not gonna be Donald Trump's choice alone to end this war. There is another party involved besides the United States and Iran, and that's Israel. And I think Israel's goals we are seeing might be different than America's goals. And just because the United States decides to wrap up and go home doesn't mean that Israel will stop its military campaign. And I think, actually that was one other thing I heard was some concern, particularly after Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, said that the United States got involved because Israel was going to attack anyway. You know, the concern is that the United States isn't calling the shots in this war. And because it didn't start by the United States choice, it may not end that way either.

[Sarah Rainsford]

Well, the other thing is that Iran, no matter how much it may have had its ballistic missile capability decimated and not be able to fight back against this war in the air. They do have one strategic advantage, advantage in that they can mess up shipping through the Straits of Hormuz. That's this really narrow channel in the Gulf through which huge amounts of commercial shipping passes, including about 20% of the world's oil. That's really, really stalled at the moment. That's what's putting the oil price up. It's the fact that oil tankers can't get through there just now because they're worried about being hit. And we've heard Donald Trump warning Iran not to mine the Straits of Hormuz, not to put mines in the sea, and that there will be all sorts of severe consequences if they do. But even just talking about that is going to put shipping companies on alert that there could be mines in the sea or some kind of attack from Iran. And as long as they can choke off the Straits of Hormuz and those commercial shipping channels, that gives Iran quite a lot of leverage, doesn't it?

[Anthony Zurcher]

And, yeah, I think the Iranians realized this. One of their current leaders said, get ready for $200 a barrel for oil. They understand that this is the pressure point. If they can cause economic pain for the Americans, Donald Trump may be more inclined to back off or at the very least, not start up bombing again once this war concludes. And you don't have to blow up every single tanker. All you have to do is threaten them. As you mentioned, the mines there, the idea that there might be mines there, and there have been reports that Iran has started to put mines in the straits. That's enough to deter shipping. I think it's Wednesday morning here now, and I woke up and looked at my phone and saw reports of another oil tanker being struck outside the Strait of Hormuz by some sort of unknown projectile. So just because the United States says they need to do this, we need to send the tankers through and that the United States is gonna protect it is not gonna convince one shipping companies to do this and two insurance companies that will provide protection, financial protection for these oil companies from them, from continuing to underwrite contracts for ships that are in harm's way. And I'm looking here at some posts on Blue sky from Senator Chris Murphy. He's a Democratic senator from Connecticut, so take that from the partisan perspective. It is. But he says he was in a briefing yesterday where administration officials came in to talk to senators behind closed doors about the state of the war. And he writes that on the Strait of Hormuz, they had no plan, all caps. I can't go into more detail about how Iran gums up the strait, but suffice it to say, right now they don't know how to get it safely back open, which is unforgivable, because this part of the disaster was one Hundred percent foreseeable. And I think people did foresee that. I mean, that, as you mentioned, was a choke point. This is an area that Iran is part of. It's in Iranian territorial waters. And it doesn't take a lot for them to make traffic through that strait. As you mentioned, 20% of oil exports really, really difficult to do safely.

[Sarah Rainsford]

And they were even conducting exercises there before this war began, making it very, very clear that this was some leverage that they had. And at that same press conference, we played a clip from Donald Trump earlier. He was asked again about oil prices and how he wants to address worries about the rising price.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Can I ask you, you mentioned you were going to waive certain additional oil waivers or sanctions. Can you talk a little bit more about that and address in particular?

[Donald Trump]

Well, we're looking to keep the oil prices down. We went artificially up because of this excursion into a very positive thing. I mean, this was an excursion that a lot of people wouldn't have done. I knew oil prices would go up if I did this, and they've gone up probably less than I thought they'd go up.

[Sarah Rainsford]

And the press secretary, Caroline Levitt, was also trying to reassure people about the spike in oil prices at her White House briefing on Tuesday.

[Caroline Levitt]

The President and his energy team are closely watching the markets, speaking with industry leaders. And the US Military is jarring up additional options following the President's directive to continue keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. I will not broadcast what those options look like, but just know the president is not afraid to use them. Rest assured, to the American people, the recent increase in oil and gas prices is temporary, and this operation will result in lower gas prices in the long term. Once the national security objectives of Operation Epic Fury are fully achieved, Americans will see oil and gas prices drop rapidly, potentially even lower than they were prior to the start of the operation.

[Anthony Zurcher]

All right, so they are clearly conscious of the fact that rising oil prices could cause economic pain, not just for American consumers at the gas pump, but really the global economy. And we've seen the ramifications of that and in Asia and places like South Korea and Japan that rely heavily on oil that is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. And they, their stock markets are dropping more, certainly more than the United States has. Now, she's vague about what we could do. However, we know Donald Trump has talked about escorting tankers through the Strait. That may not be enough. Actually. Chris Wright, the Energy Secretary, yesterday posted that the United States had already started escorting tankers and had gotten the first one through. And then the Defense Department and the White House had come back and say, no, no, we actually. That's not accurate. And he deleted that post on X. Which, again, kind of shows you how chaotic the messaging in this White House has been about what they're doing, how they're doing it and where this war is going.

[Sarah Rainsford]

Yeah. The journalist asking the question in that press conference mentioned that the Trump administration's talking about waiving certain sanctions in order to keep oil prices low. It's really remarkable, I think, that Russia ends up being the beneficiary of some of this because they're waiving some of the oil sanctions on Russia at the same time that Russia has been accused of supplying intelligence about American targets in the Middle east to Iran, to its ally, Iran. So they think Russia's actively helping Iran and then America's actively helping Russia by allowing it to sell more oil that had been sanctioned because of the Ukraine invasion. It's like with Donald Trump, Putin just wins every single time. It's absolutely remarkable.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yeah. I think Russia is, at least at this point, the big winner in all of this. But Steve Witkoff, who's Donald Trump's negotiator of all various conflicts, he came on a TV interview yesterday, I think it was, and said, when asked about whether Russia was helping Iran, he said, they say they aren't and we believe them. Which is kind of astounding for the American negotiator to take what Russia says at face value, particularly given the long history that Vladimir Putin and Russia have. So it's definitely become a very sticky situation. The oil prices and the threat to the economy. And honestly, the way the American public is viewing this war is all through that lens, at least at the moment. And if you look at polls, the American public is not in favor of this war. A majority of the American public that's polled does not think this was a good idea. It's not clear on why we did it. It wanted to give diplomacy more chance to come up with some sort of a breakthrough. And historically, even in wars that became unpopular, like the war in Iraq, like the Vietnam War, the public started on the President's side in the beginning. And here we have a conflict that started with the public not being interested in supporting it.

[Sarah Rainsford]

Yeah. And it's not just that price of oil, gas, petrol is going to hit people in their wallets. I really noticed over the last few weeks, couple of months, that every time Donald Trump is addressing the question of the cost of living and affordability, there's not that many items he can say have come down in price since he took over because there is still inflation in the economy higher than he would like. But he's always talking about the price of gas at the pumps. Every time he goes out on one of these stops, he says he's driven past somewhere and he's seen a particularly low price at a gas station and that he's the one who's delivering this for the economy. So if his single best metric for his economic performance is getting away from him and moving in the wrong direction, how on earth does he sell his economic agenda to Americans in advance of the midterms in November?

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yeah, Sarah, I mean, on Tuesday, the State of the Union address, he boasted again about gas prices. And then four days later, he launched this war that drove up gas prices in a way that he said he foresaw. And I think that is going to be a very real challenge for him. I mean, affordability in the economy is the big issue in the election so far this year and in the midterm elections in November. And this decision by Trump to launch this war is going to, one, distract him from talking about it, and two, make all of the metrics that contribute to affordability and cost of living go up. So it's a huge risk for Donald Trump. And I think maybe that Venezuela operation, how neatly that wound up and how easy it was to, to replace one leader with another one who is more amenable to working with the United States and how that didn't have any effect on energy prices, even though Venezuela as an energy producing country, I think that may have convinced Trump that this would be easy also and that this was worth the risk and that we'd go in and replace the Ayatollah with someone who would work with the U.S. but man, if you study the history of the Middle east and what sort of messes and cross currents and different millennia old conflicts are in that area, it's an entirely different ballgame than Venezuela.

[Sarah Rainsford]

And of course, we know that Donald Trump didn't go to Congress to get authorization for this war before he launched it. And that was quite controversial in itself. The War Powers act that he used to allow himself essentially to start this means that he does have to go to Congress after 60 days, I think. Is that right, Anthony?

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yeah.

[Sarah Rainsford]

I wonder if he, he probably thinks that this will be over before 60 days have elapsed. But it would be a really hard sell, I think, at this point, to Congress, wouldn't it?

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yeah, well, we had war powers votes, votes to invoke the War Powers act and, and stop Trump from acting without approval from Congress last week, and both of those failed. But I think if this is 60 days in and we're still in the same place as we are now, I think some of that support may evaporate and make it harder for Trump to win that vote to continue the authorization for this war. Now there is a possibility that Donald Trump will just ignore it. He has said, as past presidents, both Republicans and Democrats have said, that this War Powers act, which puts restrictions on a president's ability to deploy the military, is unconstitutional, that it infringes on the commander in chief's war making powers. But that's a legal fight that we have farther down the road. We won't hit that quite yet. I think a bigger concern may be the fact that by some estimates this war is costing a billion dollars a day. We're just into our second week now. The costs of this are going to add up and the Defense Department, this administration, may have to come back to Congress and say, okay, we need more money just to be able to fund this war. And if they do that, that could be where Congress has a very legitimate way of reining in this administration.

[Sarah Rainsford]

And it's interesting, isn't it, that maybe if Donald Trump had tried to get pre authorization, the debate would have been around what the objectives of the war are, the wisdom of getting involved in the Middle east once again, the dangers of ending up in a protracted conflict where you end up trying to effect regime change and nation building and all the things that we've seen tried and failed in the Middle east before. But if you were to go back to them in a few weeks time, it's going to be much more, I would imagine, about Republicans who are really worried about their reelection prospects. If this war is costing people money through the defense budget, as you're saying, but also costing the money through rising prices, and that they would be against the war for those domestic reasons rather than for sort of international diplomatic reasons.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Yeah, I think that's what American voters care about more. How does it affect their lives? And you can, I've already seen comparisons to this is how much the United States has spent on this war so far. This is what it could fund, this is how long it could keep food support funded. This is how long it could keep health care subsidies for Americans. And I think Democrats could very well frame it in that sort of way where the American people see it not just as, oh, the United States is taking care of an overseas adversary finally, but this is the price that Americans are paying.

[Sarah Rainsford]

Yeah. So this is exactly what I've come to Kentucky to try and investigate. And I've got some interviews lined up with another army veteran with an anti war activist. And we're going to head out. There's a lot of war memorials around Louisville. Head to one of the big Second World War ones as well and talk to people there where I suspect. But I will report back as soon as I can. Yeah. That we'll probably hear support for the initial action because I've always found no matter how controversial something America does, people don't like to speak against the president when he's acting as commander in chief or sound as though they might be doing down troops in combat. So there's always a patriotic rallying around the flag effect when you go out and try and talk to people. But yeah, I'm going to try and investigate how long they would be prepared to maintain that support and what kind of personal sacrifices in their wallet as well as in terms of troop deaths, because we have seen coffins coming back already. Yeah. How long that support might last, how deep their support, even if they say it's there at the moment.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Right. Sarah, those are the two big factors, the economy, prices, but also Americans dying. That's how foreign affairs, foreign conflicts cuts through and really affects American politics, at least historically. So I will be curious to see what you hear.

[Sarah Rainsford]

Yes. And it's no accident that I am in Thomas Massie's constituency, do you call them, in the House of Representatives district, his congressional district, because he is a Republican who is, of course, as we know, now outspoken against Donald Trump and has spoken out against this war. So let's see if being in his district makes any difference to that. I mean, Donald Trump has chosen to come here just to sort of tweak his nose really a bit because he's been such a critic. But yeah, it'd be interesting to see how much that that affects the way people are thinking. All right.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Well, safe travels, Sarah. I will talk to you again soon. It's been fun chatting with you.

[Sarah Rainsford]

Okay, gotta run. Bye. Bye.

[Anthony Zurcher]

Bye, y'. All. Thanks for listening to another episode. Now, if you liked what you heard, why not subscribe to AmericaSt on BBC Sounds or wherever you get your podcasts. That way you'll be notified every time we publish a new episode. We also want to hear your thoughts, feedback, questions, anecdotes, ideas, and keep them coming. We look at every single bit of correspondence that we get so you can email americastbc.co.uk the WhatsApp is 443-301-239480 and you can get involved in the AmericasT Discord server. That link is in the description of this podcast. You can also watch us on YouTube just search for americast. So until next time, bye y'. All.

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