Americast (BBC News)

Episode: Can Trump turn a Gaza ceasefire into a lasting peace deal?

Release Date: October 9, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Smith & Anthony Zurcher

Brief Overview

This episode explores former President Donald Trump’s brokered Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The hosts analyze how Trump’s strategy differed from previous administrations, how much substance the agreement realistically has, and whether it can be a foundation for enduring peace in the Middle East. The conversation also delves into Trump’s political motivations and prospects for receiving the Nobel Peace Prize.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Announcement of the Gaza Ceasefire Deal (01:08)

• Trump claims Israel and Hamas have agreed to the first phase of his Gaza ceasefire plan, but the details are “rather thin” and its long-term viability is unclear.
• The agreement garners significant media attention, particularly as Trump makes the announcement on his Truth Social platform before any official statements.

Quote:

"It was quite a post that then went out, wasn't it? This is a strong, durable and everlasting peace, he said. Now it's exciting and it's optimistic, but I don't think there's any evidence yet that it's strong, durable and everlasting, is it?"
— Sarah Smith (03:21)

2. Key Components of the Plan (03:36)

• The plan involves a 20-point peace framework:
  • Phase One: Release of all hostages (living and deceased).
  • Israel to withdraw from central Gaza back to predetermined lines.
  • Israel to release over a thousand Palestinian detainees.
• The first phase is described as a significant achievement—getting further than previous US administrations.

Quote:

“Phase one of that plan involves the release of all the hostages, living and dead. In exchange, Israel would pull back out of Gaza... and also release a number of over a thousand detainees... So it is a major step.”
— Anthony Zurcher (03:36)

3. Trump’s Negotiating Style and Political Capital (05:31, 06:02)

• Trump is described as transactional, sometimes bullying, yet effective—willing to pressure Netanyahu harder than past presidents.
• Trump motivated by a desire to cement his reputation as a peacemaker, even evoking Nobel Peace Prize talk.
• The hosts contrast Trump’s approach to Biden’s, highlighting Trump’s greater willingness to use US leverage (including military aid) to press Israel.

Memorable Moment:

“It’s almost as though Donald Trump’s rather transactional, rather bullying, overbearing manner of doing things was the one thing that worked, right?”
— Sarah Smith (08:41)

Quote:

“Trump talks about this could be a 3,000 year peace and we are very far from anything like that yet… it might get us back to where in the late 90s, with a certain amount of self governance in Gaza, where Palestinians were running the operation…”
— Anthony Zurcher (06:02)

4. Why Did Trump Succeed Where Biden Didn’t? (06:02-09:03)

• Israel was not ready to negotiate during Biden's tenure; Trump's willingness to push harder, especially after the Israeli strike on Doha, was key.
• Trump forced Netanyahu to apologize to Qatar and coerced Israel into agreement via direct pressure and leveraging the US aid relationship.

Notable Event:

• Netanyahu made to read a White House-scripted apology to Qatar, with photographs released from the Oval Office. (08:00)

5. International Coordination and Pressure on Hamas (13:13)

• The plan’s success hinges not just on Israeli compliance but on pressure from the Gulf states wielded on Hamas.
• Ongoing negotiations in Egypt, involving American, Qatari, and Turkish officials.
• Next challenge: will Hamas agree to disarm and turn over control to a technocratic “Council of Peace” as Trump proposes.

Quote:

“I wonder, though, whether he’s going to be able to keep up the pressure on Hamas... because this only works, the next phase, if they agree to disarm. And that’s a very big deal, isn’t it?”
— Sarah Smith (13:56)

Quote:

“If this were a traditionally negotiated diplomatic agreement, it would have some sort of legalese... Instead, with Trump, it’s the Council for Peace. It sounds so much more Trumpian in its simplicity… but also the grandiosity of it.”
— Anthony Zurcher (14:41)

6. Concerns Over Vagueness and Durability (15:02)

• Unlike typical diplomatic pacts, Trump’s plan is announced with minimal detail, relying on public declarations and “pushing on with concepts” rather than granular agreements.
• Hosts express skepticism about the plan’s long-term effectiveness.

Quote:

“Let’s push on with it rather than worrying about getting bogged down in the detail.”
— Sarah Smith (15:25)

Quote:

“Jumping off the cliff and then figuring out how to build your parachute as you’re coming down.”
— Anthony Zurcher (15:47)

7. Political Implications and Nobel Peace Prize Hopes (16:14)

• Rare praise for Trump from unlikely quarters—including Obama’s chief strategist, David Axelrod.
• Trump openly lobbies for the Nobel Peace Prize, linking the deal to enhancing his legacy.

Quote:

“There is so much that troubles me about this president. But if this agreement holds, the hostages are released, the bombs stop falling and there is a framework for peace... it will be a great and welcome achievement.”
— David Axelrod, via Sarah Smith (16:41)

Quote:

“I have no idea. I mean, look, I did settle... seven wars, we’re close to settling an eighth... perhaps they’ll find a reason not to give it to me, you know.”
— Donald Trump (17:45)

8. Looking Ahead: Next Steps and Uncertainty (19:08)

• Trump reportedly plans to travel to Israel (and possibly Egypt) for a “victory lap” and to prepare for the next negotiation phase.
• Hosts underscore the provisional nature of the deal and uncertainty about whether it can lead to lasting peace.

Quote:

“He wants to get there and he wants to preside over all of this, which obviously would be another big moment and another big triumph for Trump and make for some interesting viewing.”
— Anthony Zurcher (19:28)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:08: Announcement of Trump’s claimed ceasefire deal
• 03:36: Breakdown of the 20-point plan and its first phase
• 06:02: How Trump’s approach differs from Biden’s and prior administrations
• 08:00: Netanyahu’s public apology as US pressure point
• 13:13: The role of Gulf states and pressure on Hamas
• 15:02: Concerns about vagueness and diplomatic process
• 16:14: Praise from critics and Trump’s Nobel Prize lobbying
• 19:08: Trump’s planned Israel/Egypt visits and next steps

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Trump's style:

  “Transactional, rather bullying, overbearing manner of doing things was the one thing that worked.” — Sarah Smith (08:41)

• On US leverage:

  “He was just prepared to use that as better leverage... Trump is incredibly good at spotting what cards he has to play and playing them very, very well.” — Sarah Smith (10:58)

• On peace prospects:

  “This is a major step, but it also is just the first step, not the final one.” — Anthony Zurcher (15:47)

• On political consequences:

  “He wants to preside over all of this... another big moment and another big triumph for Trump.” — Anthony Zurcher (19:28)

Tone & Closing Thoughts

The hosts recognize the dramatic and unconventional nature of Trump’s diplomatic style, crediting its effectiveness while remaining skeptical of long-term peace. There’s acknowledgment of the deal’s significance but also plenty of cautious optimism, as details remain scant and future phases require far more complex negotiations—particularly with Hamas’ disarmament and lasting power transition.

Overall, the episode captures the uncertainty, spectacle, and high stakes surrounding Trump’s foray into Middle East peacemaking, while providing expert insight into the mechanics and psychology driving this latest attempt at resolving the Gaza conflict.