Americast (BBC News)
Episode: "Is Cuba Trump’s Next Target After Iran?"
Date: March 13, 2026
Episode Overview
This episode explores the growing focus of Donald Trump's administration on Cuba, analyzing whether the island nation could become Trump's next major foreign policy target after military interventions in Venezuela and Iran. The team dives deep into the political, economic, and humanitarian crisis unfolding in Cuba, largely fueled by U.S.-led sanctions and embargoes, and discusses the historical context, current political maneuvers, and possible outcomes—including backchannel negotiations and the role of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Special guest Peter Kornbluh, senior analyst at the National Security Archive and expert on U.S.–Cuba relations, provides insight on the secret talks, motivations behind U.S. actions, and the likely future for Cuba.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Trump’s Statements and Intentions Toward Cuba
- Escalation of Rhetoric: The episode opens with recent public threats and statements from Donald Trump towards Cuba, mirroring tactics previously employed with Venezuela and Iran.
- Quote [01:11, Donald Trump]: "It may be a friendly takeover, it may not be a friendly takeover. It wouldn't matter because they're really in... They're down to, as they say, fumes. They have no energy, they have no money. They're in deep trouble on a humanitarian basis."
- Monroe Doctrine Redux: Trump defines a "doctrine" of preventing "hostile foreign influence" in the Western Hemisphere, explicitly connecting policy in Cuba to recent actions in Venezuela and Iran ([09:53-10:46]).
2. Key Leverage: Oil Crisis and Humanitarian Situation
- Impact of Oil Embargo: The U.S. has imposed a sweeping embargo, cutting off Cuba’s primary oil supplies, especially from Venezuela, resulting in rolling blackouts and profound economic distress.
- Quote [04:02, Anthony]: "The United States earlier this year imposed a sweeping energy embargo on Cuba that prevented anyone, including, say, Mexico and other nations... from exporting oil into Cuba."
- Quote [05:21, Anthony]: "The economy is grinding to a halt because without oil to power agriculture, for instance, without it to pay for transport, the entire country will shut down."
- Cuban Resilience: The hosts note Cuba’s historic resilience in the face of crisis due to both internal fortitude and decades of surviving U.S. pressure ([05:56-06:27]).
3. Marco Rubio’s Influence
- Rubio’s Role: As Secretary of State, Rubio’s Cuban heritage and hawkish stance sharply focus U.S. policy on Cuba.
- Quote [13:09, Anthony]: "Having Marco Rubio... as the point person... sharpens it a bit and... gives Donald Trump's kind of instincts more focus here."
4. Political Ramifications—Domestic and International
- Republican Calculations: The hosts discuss whether pivoting to Cuba distracts from the controversial and resource-heavy engagement in Iran, noting MAGA base support but also U.S. military limitations while engaged elsewhere ([14:24-15:57]).
- Democratic Dilemmas: For Democrats, the shift in Florida’s electoral importance opens new options:
- Quote [16:23, Anthony]: "Maybe they're a little more liberated from having to worry about the electoral consequences of angering Cuban Americans..."
5. Backchannel Talks and “Deal” Dynamics
- Secret Negotiations:
- Quote [18:59, Peter Kornbluh]: "There's a back channel dialogue going on between the Trump White House, Marco Rubio and his office and relatives and people around Raul Castro..."
- The U.S. approach is depicted as strongly transactional—America offers relief from “maximum pressure” in exchange for Cuban concessions, particularly economic opening and reduction of communist control ([19:56-21:54]).
- What Cuba Gets: Essentially, Cuba receives non-intervention guarantees rather than direct economic aid or partnership ([21:13, Peter Kornbluh]).
6. On-the-Ground Reality in Cuba
- Societal Suffering: Daily life is compared to the post-Soviet “special period”—bicycles replacing cars, progressive blackouts, growing exhaustion and frustration among Cubans ([22:04, Peter Kornbluh]).
- Quote [22:58, Peter Kornbluh]: "I would not say that... the Cuban people are supportive of the regime... there's been a growing humanitarian crisis..."
7. Miami, Cuban-Americans, and Shifting Politics
- Generational Change: Miami politics have shifted—newer generations of Cuban-Americans may not hold the same hardline views, but the political class leans hawkish ([24:30, Peter Kornbluh]).
- Florida no longer a swing state lessens pressure on Trump to appease hardliners, allowing a more open approach to negotiation ([24:58, Peter Kornbluh]).
8. History Lesson: Obama’s Outreach and Why It Failed
- Carrots vs. Sticks: The Obama-era normalization was based on engagement; Trump’s approach is domination through sanctions and threats.
- Quote [26:18, Peter Kornbluh]: "Obama's approach really had the same goal as Trump's, to open up Cuba... but Obama was quite willing to use positive engagement... whereas Trump is all into just the sticks..."
- Sabotage and Reversal: Trump’s administration reversed Obama’s policy immediately, reinstating sanctions and the terrorism designation ([27:00]).
9. Will Sticks (Maximum Pressure) Succeed?
- Short-term vs. Long-term: Peter Kornbluh considers whether pressure will finally yield U.S. goals or simply feed longstanding Cuban resistance ([28:02-28:28]).
10. Human Rights, Political Prisoners, and Potential Change
- Mixed Record: Recent prisoner releases resulted from Biden-era diplomacy, not Trump’s threats; Trump’s commitment to democracy in Cuba remains ambiguous ([30:26, Peter Kornbluh]).
- Quote [30:26, Peter Kornbluh]: "There still are political prisoners in Cuba. Trump has not said a word about that being a goal or democracy being a goal."
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Donald Trump [01:11]: "It may be a friendly takeover, it may not be a friendly takeover. It wouldn't matter because they're really in. They're down to, as they say, fumes."
- Justin [02:16]: "...does it appear, as we've just been hearing, ... as if Donald Trump has plans for Cuba and plans in the relatively short term."
- Peter Kornbluh [19:56]: "The focus... has been a Trump style transactional approach of pushing for opening Cuba up to US Interests... What does Cuba get out of it? ...Cuba doesn't get attacked."
- Peter Kornbluh [22:04]: "You go to Cuba now, you don't see any cars, really, on the streets. More and more people are riding bicycles."
- Anthony [11:58]: "The idea is that this is the point where Cuba is desperate... they're going to be coming to the United States begging for a deal, in his view."
- Peter Kornbluh [28:35]: "Trump and Rubio's focus on Venezuela was a stepping stone to the trophy of the Cold War, rolling back the Cuban Revolution."
- Peter Kornbluh [30:26]: "There was a significant release of political prisoners... Cuba agreed to release ... over 500 of them. Biden agreed to take Cuba off the terrorism list... Trump came into office a week later... put Cuba back on the terrorism list..."
Important Segments & Timestamps
- 00:39-01:11: Trump’s most recent threats and ambiguous statements on "taking care" of Cuba
- 02:07-04:52: Analysis of oil embargo’s impact on Cuba’s daily life and energy crisis
- 09:53-11:52: Trump’s new “doctrine” for the hemisphere; Marco Rubio’s rising profile
- 14:24-16:23: Political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats
- 18:43-22:51: Peter Kornbluh explains secret talks, what the U.S. wants in Cuba, and what’s being offered
- 22:58-23:41: Humanitarian conditions and Cuban public sentiment
- 24:30-24:57: Generational change in Miami’s Cuban-American community and declining swing-state status for Florida
- 26:18-27:57: Obama vs. Trump approaches to Cuba and why rapprochement failed
- 28:35-29:37: Was Venezuela always a means to put pressure on Cuba?
- 30:26-31:40: Human rights, political prisoners, and prospects for real change
Conclusion
This episode of Americast provides a comprehensive look at the new phase in U.S.–Cuba relations under the Trump administration, contextualizing current events with history and on-the-ground realities. With energy shortages crippling Cuba, the U.S. is leveraging immense pressure, while potential secret negotiations and shifting domestic politics create new openings—and dangers. The fate of the Cuban regime, and perhaps the legacy of Trump's hemispheric policy, hangs in the balance.
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