Is Cuba Trump’s next target after Iran?

Summary

Americast (BBC News)
Episode: "Is Cuba Trump’s Next Target After Iran?"
Date: March 13, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the growing focus of Donald Trump's administration on Cuba, analyzing whether the island nation could become Trump's next major foreign policy target after military interventions in Venezuela and Iran. The team dives deep into the political, economic, and humanitarian crisis unfolding in Cuba, largely fueled by U.S.-led sanctions and embargoes, and discusses the historical context, current political maneuvers, and possible outcomes—including backchannel negotiations and the role of Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Special guest Peter Kornbluh, senior analyst at the National Security Archive and expert on U.S.–Cuba relations, provides insight on the secret talks, motivations behind U.S. actions, and the likely future for Cuba.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Statements and Intentions Toward Cuba

• Escalation of Rhetoric: The episode opens with recent public threats and statements from Donald Trump towards Cuba, mirroring tactics previously employed with Venezuela and Iran.
  • Quote [01:11, Donald Trump]: "It may be a friendly takeover, it may not be a friendly takeover. It wouldn't matter because they're really in... They're down to, as they say, fumes. They have no energy, they have no money. They're in deep trouble on a humanitarian basis."
• Monroe Doctrine Redux: Trump defines a "doctrine" of preventing "hostile foreign influence" in the Western Hemisphere, explicitly connecting policy in Cuba to recent actions in Venezuela and Iran ([09:53-10:46]).

2. Key Leverage: Oil Crisis and Humanitarian Situation

• Impact of Oil Embargo: The U.S. has imposed a sweeping embargo, cutting off Cuba’s primary oil supplies, especially from Venezuela, resulting in rolling blackouts and profound economic distress.
  • Quote [04:02, Anthony]: "The United States earlier this year imposed a sweeping energy embargo on Cuba that prevented anyone, including, say, Mexico and other nations... from exporting oil into Cuba."
  • Quote [05:21, Anthony]: "The economy is grinding to a halt because without oil to power agriculture, for instance, without it to pay for transport, the entire country will shut down."
• Cuban Resilience: The hosts note Cuba’s historic resilience in the face of crisis due to both internal fortitude and decades of surviving U.S. pressure ([05:56-06:27]).

3. Marco Rubio’s Influence

• Rubio’s Role: As Secretary of State, Rubio’s Cuban heritage and hawkish stance sharply focus U.S. policy on Cuba.
  • Quote [13:09, Anthony]: "Having Marco Rubio... as the point person... sharpens it a bit and... gives Donald Trump's kind of instincts more focus here."

4. Political Ramifications—Domestic and International

• Republican Calculations: The hosts discuss whether pivoting to Cuba distracts from the controversial and resource-heavy engagement in Iran, noting MAGA base support but also U.S. military limitations while engaged elsewhere ([14:24-15:57]).
• Democratic Dilemmas: For Democrats, the shift in Florida’s electoral importance opens new options:
  • Quote [16:23, Anthony]: "Maybe they're a little more liberated from having to worry about the electoral consequences of angering Cuban Americans..."

5. Backchannel Talks and “Deal” Dynamics

• Secret Negotiations:
  • Quote [18:59, Peter Kornbluh]: "There's a back channel dialogue going on between the Trump White House, Marco Rubio and his office and relatives and people around Raul Castro..."
  • The U.S. approach is depicted as strongly transactional—America offers relief from “maximum pressure” in exchange for Cuban concessions, particularly economic opening and reduction of communist control ([19:56-21:54]).
• What Cuba Gets: Essentially, Cuba receives non-intervention guarantees rather than direct economic aid or partnership ([21:13, Peter Kornbluh]).

6. On-the-Ground Reality in Cuba

• Societal Suffering: Daily life is compared to the post-Soviet “special period”—bicycles replacing cars, progressive blackouts, growing exhaustion and frustration among Cubans ([22:04, Peter Kornbluh]).
  • Quote [22:58, Peter Kornbluh]: "I would not say that... the Cuban people are supportive of the regime... there's been a growing humanitarian crisis..."

7. Miami, Cuban-Americans, and Shifting Politics

• Generational Change: Miami politics have shifted—newer generations of Cuban-Americans may not hold the same hardline views, but the political class leans hawkish ([24:30, Peter Kornbluh]).
  • Florida no longer a swing state lessens pressure on Trump to appease hardliners, allowing a more open approach to negotiation ([24:58, Peter Kornbluh]).

8. History Lesson: Obama’s Outreach and Why It Failed

• Carrots vs. Sticks: The Obama-era normalization was based on engagement; Trump’s approach is domination through sanctions and threats.
  • Quote [26:18, Peter Kornbluh]: "Obama's approach really had the same goal as Trump's, to open up Cuba... but Obama was quite willing to use positive engagement... whereas Trump is all into just the sticks..."
• Sabotage and Reversal: Trump’s administration reversed Obama’s policy immediately, reinstating sanctions and the terrorism designation ([27:00]).

9. Will Sticks (Maximum Pressure) Succeed?

• Short-term vs. Long-term: Peter Kornbluh considers whether pressure will finally yield U.S. goals or simply feed longstanding Cuban resistance ([28:02-28:28]).

10. Human Rights, Political Prisoners, and Potential Change

• Mixed Record: Recent prisoner releases resulted from Biden-era diplomacy, not Trump’s threats; Trump’s commitment to democracy in Cuba remains ambiguous ([30:26, Peter Kornbluh]).
  • Quote [30:26, Peter Kornbluh]: "There still are political prisoners in Cuba. Trump has not said a word about that being a goal or democracy being a goal."

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Donald Trump [01:11]: "It may be a friendly takeover, it may not be a friendly takeover. It wouldn't matter because they're really in. They're down to, as they say, fumes."
• Justin [02:16]: "...does it appear, as we've just been hearing, ... as if Donald Trump has plans for Cuba and plans in the relatively short term."
• Peter Kornbluh [19:56]: "The focus... has been a Trump style transactional approach of pushing for opening Cuba up to US Interests... What does Cuba get out of it? ...Cuba doesn't get attacked."
• Peter Kornbluh [22:04]: "You go to Cuba now, you don't see any cars, really, on the streets. More and more people are riding bicycles."
• Anthony [11:58]: "The idea is that this is the point where Cuba is desperate... they're going to be coming to the United States begging for a deal, in his view."
• Peter Kornbluh [28:35]: "Trump and Rubio's focus on Venezuela was a stepping stone to the trophy of the Cold War, rolling back the Cuban Revolution."
• Peter Kornbluh [30:26]: "There was a significant release of political prisoners... Cuba agreed to release ... over 500 of them. Biden agreed to take Cuba off the terrorism list... Trump came into office a week later... put Cuba back on the terrorism list..."

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Important Segments & Timestamps

• 00:39-01:11: Trump’s most recent threats and ambiguous statements on "taking care" of Cuba
• 02:07-04:52: Analysis of oil embargo’s impact on Cuba’s daily life and energy crisis
• 09:53-11:52: Trump’s new “doctrine” for the hemisphere; Marco Rubio’s rising profile
• 14:24-16:23: Political calculations for both Republicans and Democrats
• 18:43-22:51: Peter Kornbluh explains secret talks, what the U.S. wants in Cuba, and what’s being offered
• 22:58-23:41: Humanitarian conditions and Cuban public sentiment
• 24:30-24:57: Generational change in Miami’s Cuban-American community and declining swing-state status for Florida
• 26:18-27:57: Obama vs. Trump approaches to Cuba and why rapprochement failed
• 28:35-29:37: Was Venezuela always a means to put pressure on Cuba?
• 30:26-31:40: Human rights, political prisoners, and prospects for real change

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Conclusion

This episode of Americast provides a comprehensive look at the new phase in U.S.–Cuba relations under the Trump administration, contextualizing current events with history and on-the-ground realities. With energy shortages crippling Cuba, the U.S. is leveraging immense pressure, while potential secret negotiations and shifting domestic politics create new openings—and dangers. The fate of the Cuban regime, and perhaps the legacy of Trump's hemispheric policy, hangs in the balance.

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For more detailed discussion and listener interaction, see Americast’s full episodes and submit questions via WhatsApp, email, or social media channels.

Transcript

[Justin]

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[Anthony]

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[Peter Kornblue]

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[Anthony]

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[Peter Kornblue]

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[Justin]

Donald Trump threatened Venezuela, then he pulled the trigger. He threatened Iran, then he pulled the trigger. He has also threatened Cuba. Is he going to pull the trigger? On Saturday, he said this to Latin American leaders.

[Donald Trump]

Many of you have come today and they say, I hope you can take care of Cuba because you've had problems with Cuba.

[Anthony]

Right.

[Donald Trump]

You mentioned.

[Justin]

Right.

[Donald Trump]

I was surprised, but four of you said, actually, could you do us a favor, take care of Cuba, I'll take care of it. Okay.

[Justin]

What did he mean exactly? A few days later he said this.

[Donald Trump]

It may be a friendly takeover, it may not be a friendly takeover. It wouldn't matter because they're really in. They're down to, as they say, fumes. They have no energy, they have no money. They're in deep trouble on a humanitarian basis.

[Justin]

So after Venezuela and Iran, could Cuba be next and what would that involve? Welcome to AmericasT.

[Peter Kornblue]

AmericasT, AmericasT from BBC News.

[Donald Trump]

You hear that? Oh, I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money.

[Justin]

We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it.

[Peter Kornblue]

This is a big cover up and

[Justin]

this administration is engaged in it.

[Anthony]

This guy has Trump derangement syndrome.

[Peter Kornblue]

I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.

[Justin]

Hello, it's Justin in the worldwide headquarters of AmericasT in London, England.

[Anthony]

And it's Anthony in the BBC bureau in Washington, D.C. and we're going to

[Justin]

talk about Cuba today, Anthony, not just because it's a fascinating place and a place lots of people have an affair, affection for and an interest in, but also because it does appear, as we've just been hearing, it does appear, doesn't it, as if Donald Trump has plans for Cuba and plans in the relatively short term.

[Anthony]

Yeah, as we heard in those clips earlier, I mean, Donald Trump is talking about his plans for Cuba. It's no secret that he has been pivoting American foreign policy to the Western hemisphere and views Cuba as an important piece of reasserting what American control over its geographic region. So it is the next step, the next season of Donald Trump's foreign policy excursions, as he calls them. So I think we can expect Cuba to be in the news, not just now, but even more so going forward.

[Justin]

And the key to the pressure on Cuba is oil, isn't it? So they used to get all their oil, or lots of their oil from what was the Soviet Union. Soviet Union then collapsed. There were various difficulties that the Cubans went through getting more oil, but they've managed to have a pretty firm source of supply in Venezuela. We know what's happened in Venezuela. Venezuela pretty much cut off, well, completely cut off, actually, isn't it, since the US Effective takeover of Venezuela, and certainly of its ability to import and export as it sees fit. So, and we were hearing this, weren't we, on a pod we did recently, specifically on the subject of oil in Venezuela. If you don't have the oil in these nations, you do not have the electricity. So it's not just the fact that the oil's been cut off, Anthony, it's the electricity. And just the way in which day to day life in any nation depends on electricity. And that is what the Cubans are short of, right?

[Anthony]

Cuba's an island and they don't have oil wells on their island, so they need to import all of their fossil fuels. And as you mentioned, Venezuela was a key supplier for them. The United States earlier this year imposed a sweeping energy embargo on Cuba that prevented anyone, including, say, Mexico and other nations, not just Venezuela, from exporting oil into Cuba. They've made some exceptions for private businesses, but the vast majority of the oil imports were going to the state and going to power generation. And without that, as you mentioned, there's no power. They've had rolling blackouts, some that have lasted more than a day. And the people in Cuba are having to adjust, adapt to this lack of energy supplies.

[Justin]

And when you say having to adjust and adapt, what do we know about how difficult life is in Cuba at the moment? Because it's one of those things, isn't it? It is possible holidaymakers still go there, though I think possibly not in the numbers that used to. There is still an ability of the outside world to get into Cuba. But the stories that you hear about it are pretty grim, aren't they? Particularly when it comes to blackouts and rubbish and all the rest of it.

[Anthony]

Yeah, I mean, the economy is grinding to a halt because without oil to power, agriculture for instance, without it to pay for transport, the entire country will shut down. And so I believe it is a dire situation there. Not, not one that they aren't able to handle. They've been in these sorts of situations before, I suppose, but it is still a really pressing concern for them. And a change from the vast supplies of oil they were getting from Venezuela just last year.

[Justin]

You say they've been in this situation before. It's interesting, isn't it? They've been a thorn in the side of the United States and president after president after president after president. I mean, going back decades and decades and decades, and you think of the Bay and Pigs and all the rest of it at the beginning of the 1960s, and yet they've always managed somehow to keep going. And so this is a big moment, isn't it? If the loss of the Venezuelan oil essentially seems to be potentially. Are we saying the thing that does for them?

[Anthony]

It could be they've had remarkable staying power, like you say. I mean, they have been around, despite their proximity to the United States, just 90 miles, I believe, from one part of Cuba to the US State of Florida. But it is still one of these holdouts, one of these relics of the Cold War, like North Korea, that is still kind of exists the way it had even during the height of the Cold War. The fact that this nation has been able to persevere in this family, the Castro family, has been able to keep control of this island for going on upwards of 80 years is a fairly remarkable achievement. But you're right, this could be the moment. And I think there are people in the Trump administration, particularly Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, who is the child of Cuban immigrants, who see this as a generational opportunity to change that and to make Cuba more a part of America's orbit in a way that it was prior to the Castro revolution.

[Justin]

Yeah. And it's so tantalizing, isn't it? Because as you say, it is incredibly close. And I remember when there were rumors about Fidel's death. This is before he died, but there were rumors about. I remember going down to Miami with BBC colleagues and doing deals with people to buy space on their speedboats, because they were going to. These are wealthy emigres. They were going to the moment his death was announced. I can remember doing this deal. I don't think any money actually changed hands, but, you know, there was talk of quite big payments to get U.S. news crews onto the boats, which would sort of hurtle across that waterway and. And put us into Havana within, you know, a couple of hours. And the expectation was, wasn't it, that as soon as Fidel went, the whole thing would be over and it wasn't. It just didn't happen.

[Anthony]

Right. I had a friend who was very anti Castro, who had a cigar he was ready to smoke when Fidel died, and he smoked it. But the country didn't change. Raul took over. Raul is still, in theory, running the country, although I think it's members of his extended family now, because he's quite old. But they have managed to persevere in the face of, as you mentioned, continued pressure by the United States in different levels, depending on different presidents. Some have tried to put the pressure on more, some have tried to find new diplomatic ways. Obviously, Barack Obama and what he did in 2016 was the notable American outreach to Cuba, and it felt like things might be on the verge of changing there. But then Donald Trump came back in and changed course again and upped the pressure on Cuba. Biden. Biden didn't really touch it, I don't think. Not as much after what Trump did in his first term. But now here we are, Trump's back, and it is maximum pressure once again. And this time it's maximum pressure. With the precedent that we see now in Venezuela and now in Iran, I mean, that is a very different place now than we were in the past in dealing with Cuba, I think.

[Justin]

Well, let's hear a bit more about what Donald Trump is saying at the moment about Cuba and about what ought to happen there.

[Donald Trump]

So, Anazi, situations in Venezuela and Cuba should make clear under our new doctrine, and it is a doctrine, we will not allow hostile foreign influence to gain a foothold in this hemisphere. That includes the Panama Canal, which we talked about. We're not going to allow it. As we achieve a historic transformation in Venezuela, we're also looking forward to the great change that will soon be coming to Cuba. Cuba's at the end of the line. They're very much at the end of the line. They have no money, they have no oil, they have a bad philosophy, they have a bed, they have regime that's been bad for a long time. I wanted to wait a couple of weeks, but we'll be together again soon, I suspect, celebrating what's going on in Cuba. They want to make a deal so badly. You have no idea.

[Anthony]

Cuba, you said that Cuba wants to make a deal.

[Donald Trump]

Yes.

[Anthony]

What would the United States get in return for that? And why should Americans trust Marco Rubio to negotiate it?

[Donald Trump]

Well, Marco Rubio is doing a great job. I think he's going to go down as the greatest secretary of state in history. Look at what we've done as a, as a presidency look at what we've done as an administration. They trust Marco, and so do the American people. Trust he's been successful no matter where he's been. He also speaks the language, which is always nice and always helpful, but he's dealing. And it may be a friendly takeover, it may not be a friendly takeover. It wouldn't matter, because they're really in. They're down to, as they say, fumes. They have no energy, they have no money. They're in deep trouble on a humanitarian basis, and we don't want to see that. But they were very, very bad to a lot of people, as you know, and a lot of people living our. The Cuban American vote, which I got at record levels.

[Justin]

So, Anthony, when we, when we hear all of that, does a game plan emerge to you?

[Anthony]

I don't know. I mean, you know what he said there at the top about a doctrine and focusing on the Western Hemisphere and tying it in to Venezuela and to Panama. We've heard that before and we've talked about it before on this podcast. Now, the idea is that this is the point where Cuba is desperate. It's been cut off from any allies. The Soviet Union is long gone now. Venezuela is gone. It is truly alone. And they're going to be coming to the United States begging for a deal, in his view. And I think the goal here is to make life as difficult for Cuba as possible, and then they will eventually relent, whether that's a reality or not. Cubans, as we've discussed, have been very determined in the past, but maybe this time finally is different.

[Justin]

Yeah. And finally with Marco Rubio, because of his background and as Trump says, he speaks the language, that's not in itself enough. But of course, it's more than that. He's of Cuban heritage. And you wonder, does that give him potentially a kind of deeper sensitivity to all of this than Donald Trump is interested in having?

[Anthony]

I think it definitely has put Cuba higher up on the priority list than it would have been. Donald Trump, as we have discussed before, his kind of views of the world were formed in the 70s and 80s and kind of the Cold War and anti communism. So I'm sure Cuba was on his radar, and he understands how important Cuba has been in American foreign policy and how frustrating US Cuba relations have been for American presidents in the past. So I think he's aware of it that way. But having Marco Rubio, who came up in South Florida, was involved in Florida politics before he joined the national stage. He was a foreign policy hawk, particularly on Cuba, I think Having him as the point person on this, I think that sharpens it a bit and I think that gives Donald Trump's kind of instincts more focus here. So I think you could make the case that the move against Venezuela, the reorientation of American foreign policy towards the Western Hemisphere, all of that is kind of directed towards what is the ultimate goal, which is flipping Cuba away from its kind of position as a rebel country and making it part of the American sphere once again.

[Justin]

Politically, when you think of what's going on in Iran and whether or not, however that ends, we don't know how that's going to end. But you know, at the moment that it is having consequences that could be politically difficult for Donald Trump, let's just put it like that. Does this take people's attention off that? Does it add to the level of risks that the administration has? I mean, it's interesting, isn't it? You wonder now what the balance is between those who say, no, let's plow on, let's go for another country, and those who say, no, no, no, let's do the opposite.

[Anthony]

Yeah, I don't think they can plow on right now just because so much of America, America's military force attention, has been redirected towards Iran. And as we discussed in previous episodes, there's no sign that that's going to end anytime soon. Despite what Donald Trump says now, he might be able to reach some sort of a diplomatic agreement with Cuba that's short of parking an aircraft carrier off the coast and threatening them the way that we threatened Venezuela. But the type of amassing of forces that we saw outside of Venezuela and that run up that we saw for months on end before we finally made our move against Maduro, I don't think the United States is capable of that at this moment because we have two carrier strike groups in the Middle east and a third one possibly on the way, and ongoing military campaign there. It would take some time before we get to that point with Cuba, unless it's one of these ones where the diplomats take over and they finally, because of the economic pressure, they strike some sort of an agreement. I think MAGA would be fine with that, and MAGA might even be fine with the military threatening of Cuba the same way they were with Venezuela, since it's much closer to home. But I think Iran is the one that stands out. Iran is going to be the one that's very divisive if it keeps going the way it has been.

[Justin]

And for the Democrats, what's the politics of Cuba for them now.

[Anthony]

Yeah, it's tricky, right? It used to be even trickier, I suppose, when Florida, they were very concerned about trying to win Florida in presidential elections. Now Florida seems to be solidly Republican, at least in the near term. So maybe they're a little more liberated from having to worry about the electoral consequences of angering Cuban Americans. But you still see when you listen to Democrats, a fair amount of sympathy for the Cuban people, for the suffering that they have experienced under the Cuban government. Human rights abuses, documented human rights abuses that the Castro regime has had in Cuba. Whether they're as bellicose as the Trump administration, I think they would view the proper way of going, the way Barack Obama followed, which was open relations, try to win Cuba over by normalizing trade, by exerting cultural and economic influence on the country and not by threatening war.

[Justin]

Yeah. And of course, the central claim Donald Trump is making now, they want to make a deal so badly, you have no idea. In other words, there are people there who are being talked to and who could now be persuaded that they need to take a different course. That is very much the Trump line, isn't it? And on that we've had this voice note which I think is fascinating. It's a voice note from an ameracaster and an ameracaster in a particularly important place given this conversation. Hi, I'm Juan Carlos in Havana, Cuba. Well, President Trump is always saying we are talking, we are in conversations with Cuba, but with who, where? What are these conversations about? Because nothing is said here about having talks with the US Government. So what is the President talking about? Well, we got just the person to answer that because Peter Kornblue is in the D.C. branch office of AmericasT. He knows a lot about those secret talks that have been taking place, or perhaps they haven't through the decades between D.C. and Havana. Peter is co author of Backchannel to the Hidden History of Negotiations between Washington and Havana. He's also a senior analyst at the National Security Archive.

[Peter Kornblue]

Peter High, good morning. It's nice to see you.

[Justin]

Well, it's very nice to talk to you. Answer that question. Juan Carlos's question, what is going on? What are the conversations that are happening and what are they about?

[Peter Kornblue]

What is happening right now is that they are talking to high ranking Cubans. Those talks have been categorized as conversations and no, necessarily, not necessarily negotiations, but I think that's quite semantical, really, just semantics. And the fact is that there's a back channel dialogue going on between the Trump White House, Marco Rubio and his office and relatives and people around Raul Castro, the historic only surviving leader really of the Cuban Revolution. His son has been identified for some talks. And his grandson Raulito, also known as El Congrejo because he has a broken finger, has also been reportedly in talks with Rubio and Rubio's office.

[Justin]

That is fascinating. What are they being offered? I mean, what's in it for them?

[Peter Kornblue]

You know, the contours of any deal, which is Donald Trump's favorite word, are just starting to emerge. If you listen closely to Marco Rubio, he has more than once actually been asked about what the United States wants from Cuba, and he's actually given what I would consider a somewhat moderate response. Cuba needs to modernize its economy, get the Communist Party out of centralized control over investment, allow foreign investment, et cetera. It's not going to happen overnight. Rubio has said it's not going to be immediate regime change, an evolution rather politically. So the focus focus has been on the US Side has been kind of a Trump style transactional approach of pushing for opening Cuba up to US Interests, US Business interests and US Investment, pushing out all the other investors who have interests in Cuba, like China and Russia, and basically turning Cuba once again into a country completely dependent on U.S. support, U.S. economic control. What does Cuba get out of it? It's what Cuba doesn't get out of it. Cuba doesn't get attacked. Cuba doesn't have the US Military occupying its shores. Cuba doesn't have its leadership assassinated, captured, seized by US Special forces. So in some ways, he has Cuba under a vice grip. He has cut off all oil shipments to Cuba to the Cuban state. He cut off Venezuela's oil shipments to Cuba, and then he threatened all other oil suppliers not to send tankers to Cuba. And so far, none of them have. So Cuba is facing kind of a coercive situation in which Trump is demanding their economic capitulation, at least forcing them to the negotiating table.

[Anthony]

So you travel to Cuba fairly regularly. You were just there, what, 10 days ago. You talk about the oil embargo. How is that affecting Cuban life right now?

[Peter Kornblue]

You know, you go to Cuba now, you don't see any cars, really on the streets. More and more people are riding bicycles. There's tricycles, these kind of three wheeled contraptions. Some of them are electric, more electric scooters for youth. It's becoming reminiscent of the special period after the collapse of the Soviet Union when there was no oil. Like now. Cars were completely off the street, and the Chinese came in and built a bicycle factory, and Cubans were riding 1 million bicycles. That hasn't. Cuba has not arrived at that point yet, but it's certainly heading towards that point. And you know, you see a kind of a step by step turning off the lights. So it's a progressive, squeezing suffocation of the Cuban economy.

[Anthony]

So it's interesting. They've been through something like this before and, and the regime has survived it. The mood of the Cuban people still

[Peter Kornblue]

supportive of the regime, I would not say that. I think that one can honestly say that the Cuban people are exhausted by the shortages, the deprivation, the blackouts of electricity, which they've endured, frankly now for the last five, six, seven years. There's been a growing humanitarian crisis, particularly since the pandemic when Cuba had to shut down completely its tourism industry, just like every other country. And then of course there's the fact that Trump has been imposing sanctions on Cuba since his first administration and there's been tremendous mismanagement by the Communist Party government of the Cuban economy.

[Justin]

I used to go back in the day I was based in D.C. peter, back in the period before Obama came to power. And I used to go down to Little Havana in Miami and talk to people there and this was this fierce, fierce aggression towards Castro, the first Castro as it was back in those days, and sense that a terrible wrong had been done to emigres who were forced to come to the United States and they were still angry about it and their property had been stolen, et cetera, et cetera.

[Anthony]

The.

[Justin]

That over time has changed, hasn't it? I mean, a modern Cuban American may well never have been there, almost certainly hasn't been there because he or she was born in the United States. I just wonder what the politics of this is now.

[Peter Kornblue]

It did seem to have changed generationally at the time when Obama was president. Nowadays, once again, Miami is represented by very hard line anti Castro Cubans who really don't want to see some kind of deal get made that leaves any remnants of the old regime intact, as was the case in Venezuela. But the difference today is that Florida is no longer really a swing state in presidential elections.

[Justin]

That's interesting, isn't it?

[Peter Kornblue]

But more important, Donald Trump is not going to be running for president again. And so he really is immune to kind of political pressures that hardline anti Castro Cuban American communities in Florida have brought on various decision making. And that's in part why you see Trump openly talking about having these communications with Cuba. In the old days, dialogue with Cuba would be ultra sensitive and kept ultra secret. The President of the United States would never openly Say we're in talks with the Cubans because he wouldn't want the hardline Cuban American community to start screaming and pushing and sabotaging those talks. But Trump is immune to those political pressures, and he wants to take credit for bringing Cuba to the table, coercing them to really bend the knee as what he's hoping they will do. And so he's talking about it openly. The Cubans on the other side are maintaining discretion and basically saying that they're not in talks with the United States, but in fact, there are communications going on.

[Justin]

Peter, why didn't the Obama outreach work? Because it was a big deal, wasn't it? It was. When was it? 2016 or so. This sudden announcement that seemed to those of us outside the United States to come from virtually nowhere, and there was going to be normalization and all the rest of it. What happened?

[Peter Kornblue]

Well, I'll tell you exactly what happened. That breakthrough was 12 years ago. And in fact, next week is the 10th anniversary of Obama's famous trip to Havana, the first sitting president to make a state visit to Cuba. That trip was intended to create momentum for the breakthrough, the rapprochement that Obama had organized with Raul Castro through secret diplomacy that took place over the course of two years. And that breakthrough was quite significant. The United States would normalize economic relations, we'd normalize diplomatic relations. Cuba would let the private sector grow, the United States would start to make investments, et cetera. You know, Obama's approach really had the same goal as Trump's, to open up Cuba, bring changes eventually over the long term to its political system. But Obama was quite willing to use positive engagement is what it was called with the Cubans. He was willing to use the carrots, whereas Trump is all into just the sticks, using the kind of old style tone of US Domination in the region to compel Cuba to comply. And Trump started to roll back every single initiative that Obama had made around the world. He started to impose new maximum pressure sanctions against Cuba, put Cuba back on the terrorism list, which restricted its ability to do international banking and other normal economic functions, and imposed these very, very difficult sanctions that have contributed significantly to the humanitarian crisis that Cuba faces today.

[Anthony]

So do sticks work, then? Are they going to work with Donald Trump when he's threatening them like this?

[Peter Kornblue]

Well, they may end up working in the short term. Cuba's in a very vulnerable place right now. Fidel Castro is no longer alive. The Cuban revolution's heyday is long past. Obviously there is not popular support today for the regime that is in place. But Cuba has a long history, going back way before the Cold War, all the way to the turn of the 20th century of quest for independence and sovereignty.

[Anthony]

How much was that move against Venezuela done with Cuba in mind? Was that the end goal all along, as some have speculated?

[Peter Kornblue]

Well, my colleague William Leogrand and I certainly made that argument last November, two months before the invasion of Venezuela, that Trump and Rubio's focus on Venezuela was a stepping stone to the trophy of the Cold War, rolling back the Cuban Revolution. But Cuba has been a goal, and the Western Hemisphere is for the most part the longstanding sphere of influence or sphere of intimidation, better put for U.S. presidents going all the way back to the 1800s. And Cuba is the one symbol of opposition, rebellion, revolution against U.S. interests that has stood the test of time, survived all the attempts, the Bay of Pigs invasion, the assassination plots, 60 plus year old US embargo against Cuba. And so to finally be the president that rolls back the Cuba revolution and ends Cuban revolution is something that I think Donald Trump wants to claim for history.

[Justin]

I suppose if you're in the White House, though, you might say, well, look at what's happened in Venezuela. A lot of political prisoners being kept in terrible conditions just for expressing their opinions have been let out. That happened to an extent, didn't it, in Cuba as well, when the United States began to do its talking. And there are still political prisoners in Cuba and these are people who haven't been violent, people who just want to express themselves and are in jail. So, I mean, there are groups of people who would enormously benefit, wouldn't they? Whatever we think of Donald Trump and whatever you think of him and his commitment to democracy and all the rest of it, and I'm not suggesting for a minute that he is acting on behalf of people who are in jail for their beliefs, but one thing that could happen as a result is that a lot of people in Cuba who have been jailed and who shouldn't be in jail will be out.

[Peter Kornblue]

Well, you know, truth be told, there was a significant release of political prisoners that was negotiated by the Biden administration with the help of the Vatican. At the very last few weeks of Biden's tenure in office, Cuba agreed to release the political prisoners, over 500 of them. Biden agreed to take Cuba off the terrorism list, where there's no evidence that they should be placed there. Trump came into office a week later, and the very first day of his presidency, he put Cuba back on the terrorism list. Cuba went ahead and released the rest of those political prisoners anyway. There still are political prisoners in Cuba. Trump has not said a word about that being a goal or democracy being a goal. So we'll see what happens. But I think that it's going to be a very dramatic time. Trump is going to demand changes in the leadership at the very top. Those concessions are going to be very hard to make. Kind of the last dignified representation of the revolution is Cuba's control of its own, of its own future. And to have the United States, in the form of Donald Trump, dictating what that future should be is a very bitter pill for the Cuban leadership to swallow.

[Justin]

Fascinating stuff. Peter Cornblue, thank you so much for talking to us.

[Peter Kornblue]

It's a pleasure. And I'm sure we'll have an opportunity to talk again as this drama plays out.

[Justin]

It certainly feels like it, doesn't it?

[Peter Kornblue]

Yes, indeed.

[Justin]

That was fascinating and I suspect it's something we're going to be coming back to again and again as, as we were saying, just a wider point as well. As the Donald Trump agenda becomes more global, do please remember we do want to hear from you wherever you are in the world. So you can be like Juan Carlos, our Americaster in Cuba. You can get your questions directly to us or indeed just tell us your thoughts. Lots of ways to get in touch. Let me Repeat them. The WhatsApp is 443-301-23948. The email is americastbc.co.uk the hashtag is AMERICAST Discord. The link is in the description. And don't forget to subscribe. That way you will never miss an episode. Until next time.

[Anthony]

Bye bye. This is not the future we were promised. Like, how about that for a tagline

[Peter Kornblue]

for the show from the BBC?

[Anthony]

This is the interface, the show that

[Peter Kornblue]

explores how tech is rewiring your week and your world. This isn't about quarterly earnings or about tech reviews. It's about what technology is actually doing to your work and your politics, your

[Anthony]

everyday life and all the bizarre ways people are using the Internet.

[Peter Kornblue]

Listen on BBC.com or wherever you get your podcasts.