Is Donald Trump close to finishing his war with Iran?

Summary

Americast – "Is Donald Trump close to finishing his war with Iran?"

Date: May 6, 2026
Hosts: Sarah Smith, Anthony Zurcher (BBC Washington Bureau)
Main Theme: Analyzing the current status and possible resolution of Donald Trump’s war with Iran, the shifting policies, diplomatic overtures, and the pronounced economic fallout within the US.

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Episode Overview

This episode unpacks the fast-moving developments in the US-Iran standoff – dubbed by Trump as "Operation Epic Fury" and, more recently, "Project Freedom." The hosts examine contradictory signals from the Trump administration about the potential end of hostilities, the reality on the ground in the Strait of Hormuz, the diplomatic back-and-forth, and the political costs emerging at home, especially with sharply rising fuel prices. Throughout, the BBC’s Sarah Smith and Anthony Zurcher, both reporting from Washington, clarify the reality behind administration statements and explore the potential off-ramps—or lack thereof—for Trump’s approach.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Shifting Goals and Mixed Signals in US Policy

• Trump’s Announcements:
  • Trump initially declared on Truth Social the launch of "Project Freedom," an operation to escort stranded ships through the Strait of Hormuz ([02:01], [02:52]).
  • Details were vague and soon followed by the further announcement that Project Freedom was "indefinitely suspended" at Pakistan’s request, seen as a diplomatic gesture ([05:59]).
  • Blockade on Iranian shipments remains in effect despite the pauses.
• US Narrative vs. Reality:
  • Official announcements claimed success with two US-flagged ships traversing the Strait, implying victory over Iran ([04:01]).
  • However, the scale is minute compared to the 1,600 ships still stranded, casting doubt on claims of control ([04:25]).
• Quote – On effectiveness:
  “Two ships in two days is not going to make a meaningful difference to the price of oil or really allow the US to say that they control the straits.” – Sarah ([06:46])

2. The Military Situation in the Strait of Hormuz

• The US frames the transit of a handful of ships as a success, despite Iranian harassment—attacks by speedboats and drones ([04:25]).
• Most commercial tankers remain unwilling to risk passage, showing the operation has limited real-world effect ([07:20]).

3. The Diplomatic Track and Iran’s Nuclear Program

• Diplomacy in Limbo:
  • Talks continue via Pakistani mediation; Iran offered a 14-point proposal, which Trump called inadequate ([08:03]).
  • The US insists any deal address Iran’s nuclear ambitions; Iran wants the Strait opened before nuclear discussions, creating a deadlock ([08:55]).
  • Rumors of a 14-page memo offering a moratorium on enrichment for 12–20 years, but nothing permanent (and reminiscent of the 2015 Obama deal) ([10:53], [12:23]).
• Quote – On negotiations:
  “It's just a list of things to talk about rather than things to agree…” – Sarah ([12:23])

4. Political and Economic Fallout Inside the U.S.

• Rising Gas Prices:
  • Gas prices have surged to $4.50 on average, higher in key Midwestern swing states, with knock-on effects for food and other essentials ([15:34], [16:03]).
  • Agriculture hit by rising fuel and fertilizer costs, exacerbating distress among Trump’s 2024 voter base ([16:03]).
• Trump’s Justification:
  • He argues the pain is justified to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran, an argument hosts suggest is falling flat with the public ([17:14]).
  • Quote:
    “Our country is booming now, despite the fact that we're in a—I call it a mini war because that's all they are... I call it a skirmish because Iran has no chance.” – Donald Trump ([18:13], [23:07])
• Polling and Approval:
  • Trump’s energy/cost-of-living approval dips to the 20% range; hosts note he campaigned as a cost-of-living president ([15:34]).
• War Costs:
  • Pentagon pegs official cost at $25 billion so far, but hosts say this is likely an underestimate, with real costs (including infrastructure, military deployments) far higher ([19:51]).
  • Quote – On budget impact:
    "$25 billion would get a lot of healthcare... food support. I think Democrats are going to be making that point over the next few months." – Anthony ([20:22])

5. Is Trump Seeking an “Off Ramp”—or More Escalation?

• War Messaging:
  • Trump alternates between optimism about peace and threats of renewed, more intense bombing if Iran doesn’t acquiesce ([09:57]).
  • Hosts highlight risk of a “forever war” under changing operation names—"Operation Epic Fury," "Project Freedom," "Economic Fury" (sanctions)—with no clear endpoint ([21:17], [22:52]).
  • Quote:
    “Just because it's a series of different named operations one after the other, doesn't mean there's an end. It just means it's a forever war with a bunch of different names attached to it.” – Anthony ([21:40])
• Iran’s Leverage:
  • Iran appears to probe US resolve, possibly planning to impose tolls for passage through the Strait, using their control as a key bargaining chip ([25:12]).
  • Quote:
    “I think the Iranians realized that that is their pressure point. That is what they have influence over and what they can use to force the United States to make their own concessions.” – Anthony ([23:57])

6. The Broader Picture—A “War About Talks”

• Much of the current diplomatic activity is about agreeing on negotiations, not substantive resolutions ([12:23]).
• Ultimate fear: US ends up claiming victory for restoring the status quo at vast cost—with little real gain ([25:55]).
• Quote:
  “The US Claiming victory to get back to exactly the position they were in before they started this.” – Sarah ([25:55])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Trump’s optimism and threats:

  • “Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to … the already legendary epic fury will be at an end … [but] if they don’t agree, the bombing starts and will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.” – Donald Trump ([09:57])

• On political pain:

  • “This war is hitting the midwestern states really hard … that's the region that delivered the White House to Donald Trump in 2024.” – Anthony ([16:03])

• On shifting war aims:

  • “This is sounding an awfully lot like what Barack Obama agreed with the Iranians back in 2015, an agreement that was ripped up by Donald Trump in 2016. And he says there's a reason he needed to start this war. Every other administration… Only he can fix this.” – Sarah ([12:23])

• On cost of war:

  • “Approximately at this day, we're spending about $25 billion on Operation Epic Fury. Most of that is ammunitions… We will formulate a supplemental … once we have a full assessment of the cost.” – Pentagon Official ([19:51])

• On Iran’s strategy:

  • “A website seemed to be launched in Iran today … to pay a toll to get through the Strait of Hormuz… prepping to get to a situation where… you would pay, like, up to $2 million in order to get through there.” – Sarah ([25:12])

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Key Timestamps

• [02:01] – Overview of Project Freedom and US objectives in the Strait of Hormuz
• [04:01] – Pentagon and Secretary of State statements on the “success” of two ships passing through
• [05:59] – Trump abruptly suspends Project Freedom, citing diplomacy
• [08:03] – Details about ongoing diplomatic negotiations and Iran’s nuclear program
• [09:57] – Trump’s latest Truth Social post: optimistic talk, underlying threats
• [15:34] – US domestic impact: surging gas prices and declining Trump approval
• [19:51] – Pentagon reveals estimated war cost at $25 billion
• [21:17] – Discussion on Trump’s reluctance to resume major combat
• [23:07] – Trump rebrands the conflict: "mini war," "skirmish"
• [25:12] – Iran prepares for possible tolls on the Hormuz passage

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Final Thoughts

The episode paints a picture of confusion and stalemate: rhetorical “victories” masking costly failures to change facts on the ground, a leadership oscillating between bellicose threats and eager declarations of peace, and a public increasingly burdened by the war’s indirect costs. Despite the flurry of operations, deals, and diplomatic overtures, the core impasses remain — especially over Iran’s nuclear ambitions and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Politically and economically, the war has become a liability for Trump, with few clear wins to present. The episode closes with an air of uncertainty about whether this is truly an “end” or an indefinite “forever war” with shifting names.

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Transcript

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[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

The latest on Donald Trump's war in Iran that he called Operation Epic Fury. Well, according to his latest post on social media, it might be over. Or is it? It's been a very, very confusing few days where we have seen the United States launch a new operation to try and get ships through the Strait of Hormuz, then abandon that operation and then say talks are going well, they might be near the end of a war, but at the same time threatening to start bombing again. So we want to unpick amid all the claims and counterclaims and U turns what's actually happening where Donald Trump might take this from here. And as gas prices in the United States are reaching new highs and voters are really feeling the pain, is it possible for Donald Trump to extricate himself from the war that he started? Welcome to AmericasT. AmericasT.

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AmericasT from BBC News.

[Donald Trump (quoted)]

You hear that sound? Oh, I think when I hear that sound, it reminds me of money.

[BBC News Announcer]

We didn't start this war, but under President Trump, we are finishing it.

[TikTok/Casino Advertiser]

This is a big cover up and this administration is engaged in it.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

This guy has Trump derangement syndrome.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

I have four words for you. Turn the volume up.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Hello, it's Sarah in the BBC's Washington

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

bureau and it's Anthony right here next to Sarah in Washington D.C. it's always

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

nice when we're face to face, Anthony, at About quarter to 10 in the morning here in Washington. So coming up for three in the afternoon in the UK on Wednesday, and I tell you that time because we're going to be talking about the war in Iran. And for the last few days this has been complex, confusing and pretty fast moving story as we get different statements from the administration all the time about what's actually going on there. So the first thing we ought to do, Anthony, is clarify where we are here and what's happened in the last few days. It was Sunday that Donald Trump put on Truth Social, that he was launching something he called Project Freedom. And this was an American attempt to try and get some of those ships that are stranded in the Strait of Hormuz through sailing the world, dispensing oil and other goods that are trapped there, trying to limit some of the economic damage that's being done by this. But he didn't give us very many details about how that was gonna work.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

No, not many details. Anything you have to remember is that these ships have been stranded in the Persian Gulf going on two months now. So the White House and Trump were characterizing it as a humanitarian issue as well. These people are on these ships. They're running low on food, they're running low on supplies. And so the United States was gonna do this as an American gift to the world. Now, yesterday morning, Tuesday morning, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of Defense, and Dan Kane, who is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, did another one of these early morning Pentagon briefings. And Hegseth was pressed on providing a little bit more details on what exactly Project Freedom would entail.

[BBC News Announcer]

Two US Commercial ships, along with American destroyers, have already safely transited the strait, showing the lane is clear. We know the Iranians are embarrassed by this fact. They said they control the strait. They do not. So American ships led the way, commercial and military, shouldering the initial risk from the front, as Americans always do. As a direct gift from the United States to the world, we have established a powerful red, white and blue dome over the strait.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

He was proudly announcing that on Monday, two US Flagships made it through the Strait of Hormuz, and that's a huge success. That shows that Iran no longer controls the strait. Well before the war, there were about 130 going through there every day. There are currently 1600 ships trapped there. And in one day getting two of them through, does that demonstrate that the US controls the Strait and not Iran?

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Right. And getting them through, and apparently they were harried by Iranian forces as well. Dan Kaine talked about how there were some attacks by speedboats by drones on these ships passing through, and that the United States responded, but that it didn't rise up to a level high enough to constitute a resumption of hostilities. But still, if you're those first two go through and you're all these other ships sitting in the Persian Gulf watching this, it's not going to encourage you to try to make that transit if even with the might of the United States Navy behind it, they weren't able to get through totally unscathed. Now, a little later in the afternoon, Marco Rubio, the US Secretary of State, made an appearance in the White House press room, filling in for Caroline Leavitt, the press secretary, who is now on maternity leave. And you know, Rubio's a contrast in styles from Hegseth, definitely much less confrontational, much more jovial with the press. But he was also asked to try to explain what this Project Freedom was. Here he is responding to questions.

[Marco Rubio]

This is a defensive operation. And what that means is very simple. There's no shooting unless we're shot at first. So if you hear stories about attacks and launching of firing back and forth, it's not back and forth.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

If the fighting resumes.

[TikTok/Casino Advertiser]

Are you saying that it would resume under Project Freedom? And I ask, as it relates to the War Powers Act.

[Marco Rubio]

Yeah, look, the Operation Epic Fury is concluded. We achieved the objectives of that operation. I'm not going to, you know, we're not cheering for an additional situation to occur. We would prefer the path of peace.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

So that was Tuesday afternoon. We had two cabinet secretaries talk about Project Freedom. Guess what Donald Trump did just a few hours later on Truth Social, Project Freedom indefinitely suspended just 48 hours after he had announced it. In a post on Truth Social, he said it was on hold for a short time at the request of Pakistan, which has been the mediator in negotiations with Iran to see if there could be some sort of a negotiated settlement with Iran. So the United States was no longer going to try to protect the shipping going through, which means there was going to be no shipping going through. He also said that the blockade which is preventing Iranian shipments from going through the Strait of Hormuz, was also still in effect. So all of that we just Talked about past 48 hours now back on hold again.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Yeah. I mean, I have to say when I first saw that Truth Social post, and we can dig into what's going on in the peace talks and things in a little bit, but my first reaction was that that was basically a tacit admission that Project Freedom declaring that the US Was going to get ships through the trade of Hormuz was an abject failure. Two ships in two days is not going to make a meaningful difference to the price of oil or really allow the US to say that they control the straits. Can we say it was a failure, that for all that they could make announcements saying Iran is no longer in control, all that did really was prove that Iran was still in control.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Right. I think the reality was, as we just discussed, probably most of the tankers were not interested in trying to make that run through the Strait of Hormuz. And without any takers for Project Freedom, there is much of a reason for the United States to try to continue. It kind of reminds me of the Kennedy Center. Right. The Trump administration. Trump said we're going to bring all these new acts into the Kennedy Center. We're changing the name of it. And then when nobody decided to start doing gigs and other acts were canceling their appearances, well, then Trump said, well, we're closing the Kennedy center, so we can't do anything anyway. So it's kind of a tacit admission that what they were trying to do didn't work. So they found some way of saying, well, we weren't going to be able to do it anyway and move on.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Yeah. And so that throws the ball back to the diplomatic process, to talks, and let's just catch up with where we are with that because there have been various discussions back and forward. The latest was that Iran last weekend, end of last week, last Friday put forward a 14 point proposal for how they could see the war coming to an end. And Donald Trump's response to that over the weekend was to say that it wasn't satisfactory, it wasn't good enough. The real stumbling block is still whether or not Iran is prepared to negotiate on its nuclear program, talk about stopping or limiting uranium enrichment, talk about possibly handing over to the US or to a third country the stocks for enriched uranium that they already have. They're wanting to talk about just the straight of our moods about get that settled before they even start talking about their nuclear program. But of course, it's the nukes that led Donald Trump into this in the first place. And really the only thing he wants to talk about.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Right. If all they do is reopen the Strait of Hormuz without dealing with the nuclear program, then we're just back to where we were prior to the start of the Iran war. The way Rubio in that presser yesterday explained it was that the goal of the war was to remove the defense shield around Iran's nuclear program that basically were going to destroy all these conventional forces that Iran had, the ships and the air force and the missiles. And that way their nuclear program and their nuclear research facilities would be exposed if the United States had to step in and try to stop it, if they broke their promises. That is a very different kind of way of framing this war than we heard in the early weeks where Donald Trump was talking about regime change, was talking about doing away with Iran's nuclear program permanently so they could never restarted again, that there would be some sort of a fundamental shift in Iranian government and that the people would rise up against the Iranian regime, which, last time I checked, Sarah is still in power.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Yeah. So this morning, Donald Trump brought us up today because it is A great window into his thinking, isn't it? Truth social, so that we can always learn how he's feeling at any moment of the day. And this morning, he told us, assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is perhaps a big assumption, the already legendary epic fury will be at an end, and the highly effective blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be open to all, including Iran. Then he went on to say, if they don't agree, the bombing starts and will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before. The idea there that if Iran agrees to what has been agreed to, then epic fury, which is what he called the war, essentially will be at an end, does sound as though he's incredibly optimistic about talks. We've been here before, it has to be said, with these signs of optimism, but is there any reason to think that we might be getting closer to something that they could at least call a deal?

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

I don't know. I mean, at least Trump in that post acknowledged that it might be a big assumption that the Iranians are going to abide by whatever agreement they struck. There was a report in Axios this morning, an online political news site, that said that they had coalesced around the Iranians and the Americans had coalesced around a 14.1 page memo that dealt with Iran giving up, suspending nuclear enrichment and its nuclear program, that the Strait would be opened up to all traffic, that the United States would lift sanctions on Iran. I don't know how much you could get into in one page and how, how much that would actually firmly resolve the differences and provide the kind of assurances that the United States is seeking with regards to Iran's nuclear program. But at least it might provide enough of a framework for both sides to say, okay, this is over, and then let the negotiations continue. But again, Sarah, if we just get back to the way things were two months ago, with negotiations continuing over the details of how Iran may or may not be conducting its nuclear research, what was the point of all of this? The administration, the Republican Party, has played a huge political price for this war. And if all they get out of it is, well, we sunk the Iranian navy, we blew up their planes, they have fewer missiles because we blew them up, or they launched them at all of the Arab partners in the Gulf, that isn't much of a success by any measure.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

And really, it's just a list of things to talk about rather than things to agree, isn't it? That, yes, we will discuss the nuclear program, we will discuss the strait of harmonies, all of the things that need to be sorted out. They're suggesting that there's a possibility that what might be negotiated with Iran is that it would put a moratorium on uranium enrichment for at least 12 years, maybe 15 years, with the US asking for 20 years. That's not what Donald Trump went into this about. He wanted to put a permanent end to their nuclear program. No enrichment activity whatsoever. This is sounding an awfully lot like what Barack Obama agreed with the Iranians back in 2015, an agreement that was ripped up by Donald Trump in 2016. And he says there's a reason he needed to start this war. Every other administration, like Barack Obama has put together a terrible agreement with Iran. Only he can fix this.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Right. A moratorium with a time limit is not what Donald Trump wanted, but it was exactly what, as we've discussed in past episodes, exactly what was in that joint Iran nuclear deal. Now, I'm just watching my computer here. We're getting little notices popping up and Donald Trump apparently just spoke with the New York Post and he said it is too soon to start thinking about face to face peace talks between the US And Iran, although he is still optimistic that they are close to some sort of a framework to end the war. When asked whether the paper should send reporters back to Pakistan to prepare for a new round of direct talks, the President responded, I don't think so. So, I mean, who knows? I mean, this is, this is, as you mentioned, we've been here before. It seems like over the past two months, there have been these flurries of what seem like progress on negotiations, that things are getting close to a development. The price of oil comes down and the stock market goes up. And then within a couple of days, we start to unpack what really happened. And the reality is that we're right back to this kind of extended stalemate where Iran is suffering clearly under the blockade, that they're not getting the oil revenue they once did, but they aren't suffering so much that the regime is collapsing and the Trump administration, the rest of the world, the global economy is also suffering from the strait being closed, and that is starting to exact a political price on Donald Trump. I tell you, Sarah, I was just up in Pittsburgh this last weekend where the price of gas at pretty much any station in the city is over $4.65 a gallon. So even more expensive than here in the Washington, D.C. area. I believe the average price of gasoline nationwide is approaching $4.50 a gallon, which is up about 50% from before. When this war started, and that is a very tangible sign of what the cost of this war is for American consumers. And there was a poll out just a couple of days ago where American approval for Trump's handling of the cost of living, of the cost of energy, was down into the 20% range, which is just brutal for a president who campaigned on lowering the cost of living when he won the election in 2024.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Yeah, because it's not just the price of gas or petrol, is it? Which won't necessarily sound that high to some listeners in other parts of the world. But over $4 for Americans is painfully high. And it has knock on effects as well, doesn't it? A lot of food has to be transported via road, and so increased fuel costs put prices on that. And it is food and gas that are the things that American voters are the most susceptible to. That's where they're feeling the pain, and that's where they're going to make Donald Trump feel the pain as well if this carries on for very much longer.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

The most expensive price for a gallon of gas right now is in California. It's $6.16 a gallon. Part of that is because of gas taxes in California, environmental minded gas taxes in California. But as I was mentioned in Pittsburgh, that's the western part of Pennsylvania where it's higher than average. It's higher than average in a lot of these midwestern states, Michigan and Wisconsin and Ohio and Iowa. And if those names sound familiar, it's because that was the region that delivered the White House to Donald Trump in 2024. And this war is hitting the midwestern states really hard when it comes to gas prices. It's also hitting the midwestern states really hard when you look at the rising cost of fertilizer which is exported from the Gulf farmers in Iowa. I was reading a New York Times story the other day about a farmer who voted for Donald Trump because he said he was going to be the best president for farmers in the history of the United States. And he has been devastated by the tariffs which has cut off his foreign markets and now the rising price of gas and the rising price of fertilizer. He ended up having to sell his farm. You know, a lot of that is directly attributable to the policies that Donald Trump has put into effect.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

And these are some of the reasons, of course, why Donald Trump promised he wouldn't do this kind of thing and why very many people exactly like that farmer voted for him because they didn't want to see these type of foreign wars. That can have these consequences. But I've noticed the administration making a different argument in the last couple of weeks where they say, look, the economic cost of Iran having a nuclear weapon would be far, far higher than what we're paying short term. They say at the moment, in order to deal with this and that it poses such a threat, not just to America and the region, but to the rest of the world, that there is no cost too high to stop them, essentially. And I'm not sure that this is an argument that is getting through to voters or possibly ever could. But Donald Trump clearly believes it because he was asked the other day about the low polling ratings that he's getting at the moment as a result of all of this. And he definitely was trying to make the argument that if people could see this as a question of the cost of Iran having a nuclear weapon, then they would answer polling questions differently. It's an interesting take, but have a listen to what he said.

[Donald Trump (quoted)]

It's interesting. They did a poll on the war with Iran and They said only 32% of the people like it. Well, I don't like it and I don't like war at all. But we're equipped better than we have the greatest military in the world. You saw what happened with Venezuela. You see what happens when. With everything. But they said 32% of the people are against President Trump. Well, when you explain it like, is it okay for Iran to have a nuclear weapon? It wouldn't be 32%. But even if you said that there'd be a 32% because the polls are fake. Our country is booming now, despite the fact that we're in a. I call it a mini war because that's all they are. They don't have a navy anymore. Think of it. That 159 ships, like we have a war right now, and went to like, what, six weeks? They said, what's taking so long? We were in Vietnam 19 years. We were in Iraq for many years. 10 years, 12 years. We were in all these different wars. Korea, seven years. I won't even mention World War II. That's a big baby. But you have the wrong person up here. You'll be in World War Three, Sarah.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Not as long as Vietnam. I'm not sure that's a winning message when trying to defend or justify this war.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Yeah. The question of the cost of the war is something that's very well worth looking at as well, isn't it? As we're going into the 10th week of it now, Journalists have been asking ever since this began, what the financial cost is. Finally, last week a Pentagon official answered a question in Congress about that.

[Pentagon Official]

So approximately at this day, we're spending about $25 billion on Operation EPIC Fury. Most of that is ammunitions. There's part of that. It's obviously O and M and equipment replacement. We will formulate a supplemental through the White House that will come to Congress once we have a full assessment of the cost of the conflict.

[Journalist Interviewing Pentagon Official]

So you're saying the full cost at this point is 25 billion?

[Pentagon Official]

Yeah, that's our estimate for the cost.

[Journalist Interviewing Pentagon Official]

Okay, interesting, because we. I'm glad you answered that question because we've been asking for a hell of a long time and no one's given us the number. So if you could get those details over to us, that would be great.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

You know, early in the war we heard a cost estimate of $1 billion a day. The war has been going on now for 70 days approximately. So that would suggest a price tag closer to $70 billion, not $25 billion. So maybe some things that they're not including in that $25 billion list of, such as damaged or destroyed infrastructure, American bases, for instance, maybe some other of the costs, not just of munitions, but of moving all the equipment around, of the personnel being paid overtime, of having to deploy all of these ships to the region. So I think 25 we might take as a low estimate, but it still is a remarkably high number when you think about all of the different cuts that the Trump administration did over the past year. $25 billion would get a lot of healthcare, would get a lot of food support. And I think Democrats are going to be making that point over the next few months.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

There is the big question hanging over all of this. Is the Trump administration prepared to launch more munitions at Iran? That was the threat in Donald Trump's truth Social post this morning, Wednesday morning, saying, we'll start the bombing again. It'll be at a higher level than ever. Pretty much everything he has done and said over the last week or so has made it pretty clear he's not eager to start a bombing campaign again.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Yeah, and Marco Rubio on Tuesday saying Operation Epic Fury is over. Pretty definitive. Like these major combat operations have ended. And when you say something like that to turn around and go, oh no, we're right back where we were two months ago with a full on bombing campaign. I think that would make the American public much more uneasy about whether there is any kind of off ramp anytime in the future. Because the one thing they said, and you know, I've talked to Republicans about this in the past. One thing that they were afraid of is a forever war. And just because it's a series of different named operations one after the other, doesn't mean there's an end. It just means it's a forever war with a bunch of different names attached to it. So I think there is a very real political risk if they resume hostilities. I think the Iranians looking at this and looking at what Donald Trump has said and all these threats about blowing them back to the Stone Age and civilization erasure and then a bigger bombing campaign than had ever been started before, I mean, all of that makes them think that these are just bluffs and that the reality is that the United States doesn't want to start again and they're going to act accordingly.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Yeah. So there's the different names of Operation Epic Fury, there's Economic Fury that's going on with sanctions, Project Freedom. But also, I love some of the words that Donald Trump's been using recently. Mini war, we heard him saying earlier. Already started calling it a skirmish.

[Donald Trump (quoted)]

I call it a skirmish because Iran has no chance. They never did. They know it.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

He'll call it anything except a full scale war at the moment, which I think just demonstrates how much political damage this has been doing. They can spit it out for a while and say, look, we're in the process of agreeing a memorandum understanding about what talks would be based on. Essentially we're having talks about talks. That's fine. That sounds like a diplomatic process is in play. But there is a limit to how long the US can pretend that it is winning in any way at all if the Strait of Hormuz is still closed, isn't it? And I think what we've learned this week from Project Freedom is it's a lot harder to get shipping traffic moving through that than they hoped it might be, and that they may have to start giving concessions to Iranians if they want this open.

[Donald Trump (quoted)]

Yeah.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

And Rubio, in that press conference, complained about what Iran was doing in the Strait of Hormuz, said that it was akin to piracy, that it was a violation of international law. He said he was going to go to the United nations and try to get the Security Council to pass a resolution condemning what Iran was doing there. And I think that also is a reflection of the fact that this is proving to be a very real headache. And as we've mentioned before, this was a predictable headache for a lot of people who looked at the game, planning a war with Iran, and that that would be the most obvious Iranian response, if they were threatened, you know, existentially threatened by a military campaign. And that's exactly what they did. And I think the Iranians realized that that is their pressure point. That is what they have influence over and what they can use to force the United States to make their own concessions. And they seem to want to be able to continue to exert influence over Hormuz, which Rubio said was unacceptable, that any kind of tolling, any kind of Iranian regulation of traffic going through Hormuz, the United States would not accept. But if that's the case, then they may have to give on other areas, like the nuclear program or on lifting the sanctions that are currently on Iran.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Yeah, it's interesting. A website seemed to be launched in Iran today that looked a lot like where you would go if you wanted register to pay a toll to get through the Strait of Hormuz. Now, there's nothing else on it at the moment, apart from the title of it, but it looks as though they're prepping to get to a situation where just as a regular piece of transport, you would pay, like, up to $2 million in order to get through there. I wonder if we'll get to a situation where they impose tolls. The US Says they've managed to get a run to scrap the tolls, and that's a great victory that allows them to say the Strait of Hormuz is reopened because that's the territory we're in, isn't it, that the US Claiming victory to get back to exactly the position they were in before they started this.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Right. And you have to remember Donald Trump talking about the nuclear program and how we can't allow Iran to have nuclear weapons, and that the cost, the price in gas at the pump, but also in billions of dollars spent by the U.S. treasury. He really didn't lay that kind of justification, that kind of reasoning. He didn't prepare the American public at all prior to the start of this war. His State of the Union address. He barely mentioned Iran towards the end of the speech. If he was going to ask the United States and the American public to make sacrifices to pay this cost because the threat of an Iranian nuclear weapon was so great that we would bear any burden and pay any price. He just didn't do that. He acted like this was going to be a couple of weeks of bombing campaign, like Venezuela, done and done. Iran capitulates and we move on. And that is part of the reason why this has become such a headache, such a conundrum for this administration is because they got into something where I don't think they really thought through the easy way out and they didn't prepare the public for the hard way out.

[Sarah (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Well, obviously this will develop. We'll find out where we go from here, but we should probably leave it there for today and just say bye. Bye.

[Anthony (BBC Washington Bureau)]

Bye.

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