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Americast
The Democrats are back…will it last?
00:45:30
Republicans suffered losses in key elections on Tuesday night.
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- [00:00]
Justin Webb
This BBC podcast is supported by ads outside the uk.
- [00:07]
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- [01:37]
Justin Webb
Two things we can say about the Democrats. First, they are back. They have won elections, real elections with real people. And they've done much better than the Republicans thought they were going to do in areas right across the country. Number two, the Republicans appear to be having a kind of mini meltdown. So what's happened to American politics? Has it all just completely changed overnight? What do the Democrats still need to do to put themselves in a position to to win the next presidential election? All of this coming up. Welcome to americast.
- [02:11]
Ad Voice 2
Americast americast from BBC News. When Donald Trump calls, they say, yes, sir, right away, sir. Happy to lick your boot, sir. We are the sickest country in the world.
- [02:22]
Jim Messina
Oh, dear. Are you worried that billionaires are going to go hungry?
- [02:26]
Anthony Zurcher
Of course the President supports peaceful protests.
- [02:28]
Sarah Rainsford
What a stupid question.
- [02:29]
Donald Trump (quoted)
Are you still talking about Jeffrey Epstein?
- [02:38]
Sarah Rainsford
Hello, it's Sarah here and I'm in the BBC's bureau in Washington.
- [02:42]
Anthony Zurcher
And it's Anthony. I'm right next to Sarah here in.
- [02:44]
Justin Webb
Washington, D.C. and it's Justin all on my own in the worldwide headquarters of AmericasT in London, England. And later on in the program, Jim Messina is going to join us. Jim Messina, who was of course Barack Obama's chief when it came to being re elected in 2012. He was in charge of that re election campaign, but in also held posts in the Obama White House before then. But more importantly than any of that, he's also a friend of our podcast and he's talked to us before, rather memorably, as I was saying the other day, he came on and said right at the beginning of Donald Trump's run for re election that they prayed every day that he would be reelected because they thought they could beat him easily. So we'll have an interesting conversation with Jim, but Jim is really the person of the moment to talk about the issue of the moment, I guess both of you, which is the, the Democrats and they're certainly back, but how far back they are.
- [03:39]
Sarah Rainsford
Yes. And which kind of Democrats are back. There's so much to unpick, isn't there, from Tuesday's election results, which are different in different states, of course, and potentially offer different lessons. But before we get to those, there are actually some other interesting results to look at. It's, I mean, in the big picture, Republicans have been writing this off saying look, what did you expect? Some blue states voted for blue candidates. Democrats won in Democrat areas. There's nothing to see here. There's nothing for Republicans to be worried about. But if you delve a little bit deeper, you'll find that there are some interesting things going on, starting in Pennsylvania, key swing state, of course, hardly democratic territory, and the re elections there to their state supreme Court.
- [04:19]
Anthony Zurcher
Anthony, Three states, three seats in the state supreme court were up. They were all held by Democrats. The Democrats have a majority in that state supreme court at the moment, but all three of those Democratic candidates won. This wasn't a huge election in Pennsylvania. They elected Governor Josh Shapiro, who's going to run for reelection next year. But this did tell you that one, Democrats are winning statewide in Pennsylvania and two, keeping a hold of state supreme courts is important when it comes to contesting election results, reviewing ballots, setting the rules for elections. If the conservatives, the Republicans had taken back control of that, you could have seen limits on early voting, limits on county mail in ballots, all that sort of thing. And it would have been a setback for Democrats. So encouraging news down ballot there as well.
- [05:09]
Sarah Rainsford
And don't forget Pennsylvania was absolutely critical to Donald Trump's victory. If he hadn't won in Pennsylvania, he Probably wouldn't be in the White House right now. So Pennsylvania matters, as does Georgia, of course, another key swing state.
- [05:22]
Justin Webb
Yeah, the Georgia thing is really interesting because barely a day goes by when I don't keep an eye on the Georgia Public Service Commission and the work. The work that it does.
- [05:31]
Jim Messina
Aha.
- [05:32]
Justin Webb
You found me out. But anyway, this body that I frankly admit I had absolutely never heard of, and I certainly didn't know they had elections for it. But that's one of the wonderful things about the states, isn't it? You have elections, Anthony, for all sorts of things that in any other normal country is just appointed. But anyhow, you've got these elections in, in Georgia for the Public Service Commission, which sounds a little bit dry, doesn't it? And the fact that the Democrats won two races for seats on that commission. But actually it isn't dry. And it's not us telling you this. It is none other than the godfather of maga, Steve Bannon himself. Let's listen to what he was saying on his show after those Georgia election results.
- [06:15]
Steve Bannon
The midterms start tonight. One of the biggest warning signs that we've got that we need to get focused is these two commissioners in Georgia, the mtg, I don't think they've ever won. And she says the first time in 30 years that Democrats have won a statewide election. I don't think they've ever had commissioners, been Democrats in a couple of decades. That is a warning that this thing is going to cut deeper.
- [06:41]
Sarah Rainsford
Mtg, of course, is Marjorie Taylor Greene, the very MAGA Republican congresswoman from Georgia. That's who Steve Bannon was referring to there, the Public Service Commission. I guess we should explain. It's in charge of public utilities. Is that right, Anthony?
- [06:56]
Anthony Zurcher
Yeah, it regulates the energy, energy industry in Georgia, which is interesting because energy prices have been part of the reason people feel like they cannot afford things anymore, part of the reason we've had inflation complaints about the cost of electricity with all these data centers going up and sucking up the power. It clearly is a potent issue, and it was a potent issue in Georgia where these candidates ran, pointing to higher utility rates being a problem. That's one of the reasons why they won. The other thing, of course, is that Georgia is a purple ish state. Joe Biden won it in 2020, he lost it. Or Kamala Harris lost it in 2024. It has two Democratic senators. One of them, Jon Ossoff, is going to be up for reelection next year, and it is a seat that the Republicans are targeting. But Democrats haven't won a non federal as in non presidential, non senate statewide race in Georgia since 2006. 19 years. So this is interesting, relevant. Tell us a little bit about the fact that Georgia still is a purple state and Democrats might have hopes when there's a governor's race there as well next year, an incumbent Republican camp. He can't run for reelection. He's term limited. It's an open seat. They may get their hopes up now that they could win the governor's seat in Georgia, which would be a dramatic shift in that state's politics.
- [08:23]
Sarah Rainsford
And Justin Anthony was saying that a lot of the campaigning here was about the price of utilities and affordability really was at the heart of just about every one of these elections. So many different things happened, didn't they, from the left wing Zoram Mandani winning in New York to the more centrist governor candidates in New Jersey and in Virginia, these smaller elections that we're talking about now. But prices and affordability were at the heart of every single one of these campaigns, which is fascinating given that exactly a year ago we were talking about result where Donald Trump swept the presidential election based on affordability and the cost of living, essentially.
- [09:00]
Justin Webb
And we were also saying, weren't we over and over again, what on earth is Joe Biden up to when it was Biden still, when he names a really unpopular economic policy that people feel is damaging them Bidenomics, what on earth is he doing by giving it a name? Why is he telling people that they're better off when they feel themselves that they're not? And now you got Donald Trump essentially at least accused this time round of doing basically the same thing that Biden did, falling into the same trap of just hammering people and saying, look, you've never had it so good, etc. Etc. But actually the people themselves feeling different. So anyway, we should hear a bit from Donald Trump, shouldn't we? Because he immediately accepted responsibility and fell on his sword. No, no, no. Actually he didn't. There he is.
- [09:48]
Donald Trump (quoted)
And the country's doing very well. But as Republicans, you have to talk about it, because if you don't talk about it, you know, I saw that they kept talking about affordability. Well, Biden was a disaster with affordability. He had the highest inflation rate in the history of our country. But you have to talk about it. It's no good if we do a great job and you don't talk about it. And I don't think they talk about it enough. You know, they have this new word called affordability. And they don't talk about it enough.
- [10:11]
Justin Webb
And earlier in the day he'd also blamed his own absence from the ballot at a White House breakfast. So he held this White House breakfast with Senate and House Republicans and he seemed to think that the biggest problem this time round was that people weren't able to vote directly for him.
- [10:28]
Donald Trump (quoted)
If you read the pollsters, the shutdown was a big factor, negative for the Republicans, and that was a big factor. And they say that I wasn't on the ballot was the biggest factor, but I don't know about that. But I was honored that they said that.
- [10:44]
Sarah Rainsford
Now, of course, I don't know how many pollsters were saying that. Donald Trump just makes these things up quite often, but I think that probably, probably was a factor, though. I mean, Trump's name on the ballot would have brought out some MAGA supporters who maybe wouldn't bother to vote in these off year elections otherwise.
- [10:59]
Anthony Zurcher
Yeah, I mean, if you look at the results, that definitely is the case. In 2018, Democrats did really well. Trump wasn't on the ballot there. Of course, Trump won in 2016 and lost narrowly in 2020. In 2022, Republicans thought they were going to have a red wave to win back solid control of Congress. They did all right, but they didn't do nearly as well as they were hoping. Again, that was midterm election, that Trump wasn't on the ballot. Of course, next year we have more midterm elections. Trump's not going to be on the ballot there. So I don't know how you fix that. But it is something that Trump churns out lower probability voters, people who don't always vote. He brings them out from all over the country and that is one of the unique strengths he has.
- [11:42]
Justin Webb
And actually that brings us rather neatly to an email from Gerard, who is a US citizen who's been living in the UK for the last 25 years and addresses this issue of Trump's reaction and says there are two interesting aspects to it. Number one, he didn't dispute the election itself, which is true, isn't it? It's interesting this. He didn't say it was all rigged or anything like that. Almost, Jared says, as if he expected to lose. Number two, he says the Republicans lost because Trump wasn't on the ballot. So I think he means he expects people to start putting his sons, not him, onto upcoming ballots. Of course, that would have meant an even bigger defeat, but I can imagine him think thinking it would have helped, says Gerard. What do you think of that, Anthony? He did actually Occasionally in the various remarks he's made, he did say I rather than Trump. But that would be a solution to your problem that Trump isn't going to be on the ballot next time around. He's just putting a different Trump on.
- [12:35]
Anthony Zurcher
That's going to be the big debate going forward. Right. Is there anyone else who can capture Donald Trump's magic, his ability to connect with these disaffected voters who don't often show up at the polling places? And is just the name Trump enough? Does Don Jr. Have that magic that Donald Trump Sr. Has? Does Eric Trump have that kind of magic? And we don't know yet. Neither of them have run for anything. We don't know if they can connect with the base the way Donald Trump does. We don't know if J.D. vance or Marco Rubio or if anyone else that has been floated as a potential 2028 Republican presidential nominee has that we're going to have to wait and see. But the evidence so far, at least based on these midterm results in 2018, based on this off year election that just happened, based on the 2022 midterm results, is that there is a very real dropdown for anyone who is not named Donald Trump Senior on the ballot. As far as Republican turnout goes.
- [13:41]
Sarah Rainsford
Yeah. All those Trump 2028 baseball caps that they have, which annoy Democrats very much and people think, oh, it's a sign that he's trying to run for a third term. I mean, could always be repurposed if another Trump is going to run. Don Jr. Eric Ivanka's not very likely, is it? Maybe Kai Trump one day we'll see. Wearing one of those hats. But that would have to be 2038, I guess.
- [14:04]
Jim Messina
Yeah.
- [14:06]
Justin Webb
The other thing that he's addressed recently, so number one, he's addressing the business of whether he should be on the ballot. Number two, he's addressed the business of whether the shutdown, which is now a record government shutdown, isn't it whether the shutdown is affecting the Republicans. And he's to the annoyance, I think it's fair to say, of some Republicans, he's putting pressure, isn't he, on the Senate to change the rules, get rid of the filibuster so that they can just pass stuff, including effectively ending the shutdown, to which some people say, well, hang on a second, we thought the Democrats were owning the shutdown. It was going to damage them. So there's a sort of, there's now a shutdown in fighting, isn't there, within the Republican Party. Anthony which is interesting.
- [14:46]
Anthony Zurcher
Yeah. I was struck by Donald Trump saying that not only in those remarks the morning after, but also in truth social posts. Republicans have been saying time and time again this is the Democrats fault and looking at polls and certain polls and saying, no, no, look, you know, we're not getting blamed. Democrats are going to get blamed. And it is the Democrats who are blocking a government funding bill, a short term government funding bill because they want to renew subsidies for health insurance. But Donald Trump seems to think, and the results from this election seem to point to, and polls also seem to indicate that Republicans are getting blamed for, for the shutdown. And part of that I think is because Republicans are the ones in control. And the American public may not look deep enough into, well, what's going on in the Senate and the filibuster rules and how can a minority of Democrats block the majority of Republicans. They don't care about that. They care who's in charge, what's going wrong and who then can they blame for this. And it's pretty clear that Republicans are taking it on a chin. And Donald Trump making these kind of comments is going to make it tough for Republicans to hold the line against Democrats if they think that they are paying an increasingly large political price for this.
- [16:00]
Sarah Rainsford
Yeah. Especially when more and more voters are starting to feel the impact. So you've got the least well off are suffering because there is reduced access to benefits that help pay for food. You've got federal workers not getting paid. But the impacts are now knocking on to, for instance, air traffic control. Yeah, I mean, I flew up to New York on Tuesday. I took a train back last night because I didn't fancy trying to get through any of these airports. And officially air traffic is being reduced by 10% in 40 of the busiest airports across the country because there just aren't enough air traffic controllers turning up for work to keep the plane safe or running on time. And if these kind of things keep going on, especially as we move towards Thanksgiving when Americans all fly halfway across the country for lunch and then back again, it's really that is going to hurt pretty badly, isn't it, Anthony?
- [16:52]
Anthony Zurcher
Yeah, I think it is. That's why I only fly Air Force One. You wouldn't have to deal with this commercial air travel. But that is one of the things that is going to be a problem. The other thing, Scott Besant, the Treasury Secretary, says that troops aren't going to get paid starting November 15th. The snap, the food benefits which we've talked about in the past, it looked for A while, like they were going to get cut off completely. Now a judge has ordered some emergency funding, but they're still not going to be at the full level. Of course, federal workers, a lot of federal workers outside of the military aren't getting paid. And this is going to have a continuing dragging down effect on the American economy and making life harder and harder, not just for the government workers who are going without pay, but also with the public at large. And it is going to be more and more difficult for Republicans to hold line, but also Democrats because it's their constituents who are getting hurt in this as well.
- [17:45]
Sarah Rainsford
Yeah. So J.D. vance posted about this, saying that all of this infighting over this inside the Republican Party needs to stop. And he said, I care about my fellow citizens, particularly young Americans, being able to afford a decent life. I care about immigration and our sovereignty. I care about establishing peace overseas so our resources can be focused at home. If you care about those things too, let's work together. I mean, Justin, that does sound as though he's not entirely taking seriously this big issue that the Republicans really do need to address at some point this month.
- [18:17]
Justin Webb
Yeah, I mean, not taking that issue seriously, but actually deeply worried, it seems to me as well, about another meltdown that is happening in parallel, which is this weird argument that MAGA Republicans have decided to have with themselves essentially about fascism. I mean, it's really weird. So while on the one hand you got people very obviously going to the ballot boxes and saying, the thing that is upsetting me is the state of the economy is the state of my personal finances and I don't feel as good as I thought I was going to feel when Donald Trump was elected and in some cases when I helped elect Donald Trump. But then on the other hand, you've got this MAGA meltdown, Anthony, which is just a peculiar thing, beginning with Tucker Carlson, the influencer, podcaster, he's got his own TV show. I don't know what you call Tucker in this day and age former Fox News person who does these weird interviews often actually with enemies of America, it is fair to say, and did an interview with this man, Nick Fuentes, who I suppose we should explain, number one, who he is. But number two, when people attacked Carlson for doing the interview, some people on the right then backed Carlson and others didn't. But they've managed to have a really proper fight about it.
- [19:35]
Anthony Zurcher
Yeah. So Nick Quintess, a self professed white nationalist, he says that there's a Jewish conspiracy that is influencing global politics and, and has a corrosive effect on American politics. I mean, he says the things that I think a lot of people would be shocked to hear in the public sphere. But Tucker Carlson gave him a platform, gave him an extended interview. And that has generated controversy within Republican circles, as, for instance, the president of the Heritage foundation defended Tucker Carlson. That led to kind of a civil war in the Heritage foundation, which is this very prominent conservative think tank. You're having a kind of in the public debate about what conservatives and the conservative movement should do with these white nationalists within their own midst. I mean, there was a crazy quote from Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina senator, saying that he was. He considers himself part of the Hitler sucks wing of the Republican Party, which begs the question, what's the other wing of the Republican Party? He said, you know, there's sometimes weird people in the basement that you hang out with who say weird things. I mean, it seemed kind of dismissive, but it is a reflection of how difficult it's proving to be for even prominent Republicans to, what, first out and out condemn anti Semitism within their own movement, but also find a way of moving on from this issue.
- [21:05]
Sarah Rainsford
Yeah. Fascinating, isn't it, when you look at all the accusations of anti Semitism that were being flung at Zoram Mamdani during the course of the New York mayoral race because he says that he doesn't think Israel has a right to exist. Jewish state. Yeah. And then you see something like this. Let's not forget that Nick Fuentes had dinner with Donald Trump at Mar a Lago. With Kanye west, was it?
- [21:25]
Anthony Zurcher
Yes. Yeah. Yeah. That was in, I guess, November of 2022. I mean, it was.
- [21:32]
Sarah Rainsford
It was just around about the time Trump announced he was running for president.
- [21:35]
Anthony Zurcher
Yeah. And it was like, right afterwards. And it became, oh, this is a big distraction. What is Trump thinking? And this campaign is unfocused and it's. Is getting off on the wrong foot. Very distracting. And, of course, all of that kind of got washed away in the ensuing couple of years. But Nick Fuentes has been around, and among conservative circles, he usually has, like, a side event at cpac, the Conservative Political Action Conference, that a lot of Republicans, a lot of Trumpists go to now. And he's the kind of person that the Republican Party and the conservative movement can't shake. And he does speak for people, some people who are within the umbrella of this movement. He is not an isolated individual. He has a following. And I think it's been a real challenge for conservative leaders to come to grips with this and the role he plays in their movement.
- [22:25]
Justin Webb
Okay, so to sum it up, Republicans in a bit of a mess. Democrats really enjoying themselves. And we haven't said that either of those things actually for some time, which is a very good moment in which to introduce Jim Messina, a great friend of the pod, great friend of the Democratic Party, of course, because as I was saying right at the beginning, he was deputy chief of staff to Barack Obama. He then ran Obama's 2012 re election campaign, which was of course a huge success. Although at the time people said, oh goodness, he's going to wobble and he might not make it all the way through, et cetera, et cetera. Eventually he did, and he did pretty triumphantly. And Jim is in Montana. Jim, hello and welcome to the podcast.
- [23:06]
Jim Messina
Thanks for having me.
- [23:07]
Justin Webb
How are you feeling?
- [23:09]
Jim Messina
Better than I was on Monday. Feeling pretty good about the results on Tuesday. They were kind of better than even the brightest predictions. So it's a fairly interesting week to look and see where my beloved country is.
- [23:27]
Justin Webb
What do you think we should all be taking away from the elections? What are the key things that you think people who have a real interest in American politics, as everyone who listens to this podcast does, what are the things that you would point to and say, aha, that really matters?
- [23:43]
Jim Messina
Look, I would say three things. First of all, Donald Trump's overall approval rating really matters. If you look at the two big governor's races in Virginia and New Jersey, he was underwater by 15 points. His approval rating on the economy, which is why he won the presidency last year. Remember, he beat Kamala Harris on who's better for the economy by double digits. His approval rating in the economy disapproval rating is now 60%, including 66% with swing voters. And those swing voters who voted for him really thought he was going to go in there and focus solely on the economy. And we can argue whether or not this is his fault or not. But the American view is that he's done a lot of foreign policy stuff. He's done a lot of other things. There's lots of chaos. We got a government that shut down and he's not focused on the economy. And the first thing is voters send a very clear message to him, which he seemed to have gotten from his tweets that they're unhappy. The second thing is the Democrats ran really good candidates who didn't focus on the social issues that our party has been obsessed with and instead focused straight on affordability and economic issues. And, you know, these are really different candidates. Abigail Spamberg in Virginia and is from a very different wing of the Democratic Party than Mandani in New York City, but they both focused on pocketbook issues of affordability, housing, childcare, et cetera. And when Democrats win the economic argument, and I've been saying this on your podcast for years, we win the election, and when we don't, we don't. And so we were able to do that. The third thing I think is really interesting is, is the coalition that President Trump built with these young voters who were historic, huge Obama supporters. But then he won young men, and that coalition is really about him and not his party. Mondani won young men by 40 points. Sherrill and Spamberger won young men by double digits. And so the question for the Republicans and Democrats is who's going to win this emerging coalition? And it's really important. These young voters who voted for Ronald Reagan 1980, stayed Republican for the rest of their lives. The young voters who voted for Barack Obama in 08 and 2012 have stayed Democratic. And so, you know, both parties are really heavily contesting these young voters right now. And last night they went back to the Democrats. Yeah.
- [26:15]
Justin Webb
And another group that went back to the Democrats that people have really been interested in, isn't it, is Latino voters. So you have this amazing. I mean, Donald Trump got a bigger share than any other Republican in history, didn't he? And certainly recent history of the Latino vote, something like 46%. And yet this week they've either stayed at home or they've gone back to the Democrats. I mean, how sure are you that the changes, particularly in New Jersey, that you saw in the Latino vote are really significant?
- [26:46]
Jim Messina
Not sure at all. I mean, they're certainly important for her, and she did a great job. But you had this right, which is about turnout. Right. And the turnout was historically big for a non election year, an off year election year. It was the biggest in New York city since the 60s. It was the biggest in Jersey in, I think, 30 years. So it was big. But it's not like a big general election midterm election turnout or a presidential election turnout. And so, you know, Donald Trump built the modern campaign for him on getting this massive turnout. And the Republicans have been unable to replicate that in smaller elections. Democrats tend to do better in smaller turnout elections because they have higher educated voters who vote more, especially women, the heart of the Democratic Party. And so last night, Mikey, Sheryl did amazing, or the other night with Latino voters, but the actual number of voters she got of Latinos would not be enough in a big general election in 2020. Six or 2028. And so Tuesday night was wonderful for the Democrats, but I don't want us to get too happy. And the reason is, if you think about it, one, it's very unclear whether we can replicate these wins in a bigger turnout election. And two, overall our brand is about as popular as charging a beer tax or in our country, a tea tax. The Democratic brand sucks and Tuesday night did nothing to improve that. Normal voters who are general election big voters in 2026 and 2028 still do not like the Democratic Party and they still don't like what we stand for. They like some of our candidates like Mikey Sherrill and Abigail Spanberg and Mondani, but they still don't like the overall brand. And unless we can do overall what we did on Tuesday night, which is be very clear about what we're for economically, I still think we're, we're in for tough times in the future.
- [28:52]
Sarah Rainsford
Yeah, Jim, I've seen some studies saying that people about particular candidates, if they have Democratic attached to their name, that can cost them 10 to 15 points of support versus the same candidate profile if they're listed as being an independent, which shows you just how damaged the Democratic brand would appear to be at the moment. And I'm wondering to what extent either these victories show us that that's changed or help to change that perception that the Democrats now represent the higher educated, higher earning folk and that it's republic that lower earning working class voters have been turning to and who represents them. Did anything happen this week to tell, I guess the people who might consider themselves to be Hillary Clinton's deplorables that the Democrats are interested in them after all?
- [29:43]
Jim Messina
Not yet, but it's proof of the candidates matter and campaigns matter. So in Virginia and New Jersey we were able to do that because we ran tens of millions of dollars of ads and had two great moderate candidates who really focused on the economy. But in the other 48 states they didn't see anything yet and they want to see it. And you have it exactly right. Part of the decline of the modern Democratic Party has been we are unable to win seats in red states with these voters that traditionally have been Democratic voters. And you know, this was until the most recent election, labor's problem in the UK Right. But labor managed to fix that with some of the Brexit voters. We have not yet done that in some of these places. And if we are going to win the House of Representatives, which I think is the most important thing in the world for the Democrats to Put some check on Trump's power here. We've got to win in tough districts, and I don't think last night solved that. I think it showed what you need to do. And I want to shout out Mandani too, although he's a very different kind of politician. And I don't think the way you win in New York is the way you win the House of Representatives. He was a good lesson for the Democrats for two reasons. One, he focused on affordability, just like Spanberger and Sherrill. And two, he had the most innovative use of social media since a guy that we all know as Barack Obama. I don't want to compare Mondani to Barack Obama because I don't think they're anything alike. But he's done the most interesting social media stuff I have seen, and everyone ought to look at him and say, you know, how do you communicate a message? And so I think those are good lessons, but I don't think it does anything to fix our overall problem. To your smart point, that a whole bunch of voters in those states that we're going to need still sit there and say, I am not sure what.
- [31:33]
Sarah Rainsford
The Democrats stand for, but Mamdani ran such a good campaign. He drew attention nationwide, worldwide, actually. People were paying attention to him. And now you've got Republicans salivating about the fact that he has such a high profile and they think such left wing policies that they can use him to tar the entire Democratic Party as being unacceptably to the left when it comes to next year's elections.
- [31:57]
Jim Messina
Yeah, and they definitely tried that in New Jersey. Right. They were flying banners over the Jersey beaches all summer saying Mondani equals Cheryl. Most of their ads at the end were trying to tie her to Mandani and it didn't work. She won by double digits. And so, you know, and that's right there. And typically those swing Jersey voters that I know so well in the suburbs really hate the mayor of New York, but they were unable to do that because she focused on pocketbook issues, which is what Democrats have to do. They will absolutely try that. And they tried in some of the elections, all over the place in doing some of that. You know, they went back to the trans issues trying to win elections like that, and it didn't work. And, you know, I think for a second we should talk about the breadth of this win, because it wasn't just in, in the states you and I were just talking about. I mean, we won the first two non federal statewide races in Georgia in 20 we got rid of the filibuster in the most ruby red state of all of Mississippi. We built a super majority in Virginia. There were election wins all over the country. Which goes back to my earlier point. It's not just about our brand because we haven't fixed that. A lot of this was voters sending Donald Trump a very personal message. And by the way, they sent Barack Obama that same message. You all will remember, I was in the White house Then in 2010, we lost a historic amount of seats in Congress. We lost control of the House. And Barack Obama went on national TV and said, I just got a shellacking. And no one thought he could win reelection. And two years later, he won handily. So it is just another reminder why Democrats need to celebrate with one glass of champagne, but not two.
- [33:44]
Anthony Zurcher
Yeah, we looked at some of those down ballot races. The Supreme Court, State Supreme Court in Pennsylvania was another one. But as I was looking through them, I saw one place, place where actually Democrats didn't do all that well, and that was in Long island in Nassau County. Now, you used to work for a Nassau county member of Congress, so you know the politics there a little bit. But Republicans actually trounced all of the local Democrats running in that county. What, what's going on there? And is that a, a warning sign for Democrats?
- [34:13]
Jim Messina
It is. It was a warning sign for, for the New York governor in her 2026 reelection. That was proof of the old Tip O' Neill adage, all politics is local. That was about the commuter tax and the anger of people in some of those places who, even though the commuter tax has been on and off and changed five times, they sent a very clear message that they were very unhappy. And those are the same kind of suburban voters that we did really well with in New Jersey. And to your smart point, we got our ass kicked in New York, in Long island, the place that I cut my political teeth in. And they a very clear message that they are unhappy. And Governor Hochul has got to figure out how to communicate to them about these issues in two years.
- [34:59]
Anthony Zurcher
Yeah, and you said the way that Democrats can take back control of the Congress, the House of Representatives, winning red states and running good candidates. There's a politician who won in a red district and was a young charismatic candidate, Jared golden in the south of Maine, that was, that was a Trump district, very Trumpy district. He just announced in an op ed that he's not going to be seeking reelection. What do you think the thought was behind that and is that a warning sign to Democrats?
- [35:31]
Jim Messina
It absolutely is a warning sign to Democrats. Here's a 43 year old politician who used to be a Republican, became a Democrat kind of in the Obama years and won a very difficult seat and held it through good times and bad and just got a primary from the left. People saying, oh, you're not liberal enough. You know, we've always, when we win as Democrats, we are the big tent party and we have people like Mandani and Abigail Spanberger, we have people like Bernie Sanders and Jared golden. Like, we can have both of those. And that's how you win in America. The way you win in my home state of Montana is different than the way you win in Long Island, New York. And that's okay. But there's a very boisterous, I think very small minority, but pretty big amount of people in Washington, D.C. that seem to want to have a purity test. And you know, you can have that test. You're just going to be in the minority for a very long time. And in some ways, that's how we got Donald Trump, too.
- [36:33]
Sarah Rainsford
Yeah, I've noticed that some papers and news websites are already listing all the potential Democratic challenges for the nomination for 2028 of the background of this week's elections. And it's a widespread of names and many, many more will join in before we get to that point, as the party needs to pick its next nominee. Can they have a sensible debate, do you think, Jim, saying exactly the things you have, we need to be a big tent party and field candidates who are right for the states and the districts that they're in, or is there going to be a kind of civil war for the soul of the Democratic Party to get to a place where they get rid of purity tests, where they get rid of an obsession with social issues and can concentrate on a simple economic message. Is it going to be tidy to get to that point, or does there need to be a real internal battle first?
- [37:19]
Jim Messina
Well, a famous man once said he wasn't a member of an organized political party because he was a member of the Democratic Party. So, you know, we make everything messy. But here's the great thing about the Democrats and why I love them so much is we really love to win and we really love to govern because we understand what governing is. And so, you know, we went through this purity test in 2020. We had all these really exciting candidates like Bernie Sanders, like Mayor Pete, like other, etc. And then kind of in the course of 48 hours, the entire Democratic Party decided the only candidate that could beat Donald Trump was Joe Biden, and he became the nominee and beat Donald Trump. And so I think that electability is going to be really, really important for the Democratic Party in 2028, because I think they have seen just unprecedented damage by what Donald Trump has done to this country. And they look at JD Vance as a mini Trump, and they're going to do whatever they can to stop him. And so I think that there's going to be a real focus on who can build that coalition. That said, it's going to look messy for a while. I've now met with over people who think they're running for President of the United States. A lot of them are not. They just don't know it yet. But, you know, it's. It's an open race with no incumbent and no favorite. And so, you know, people should really look at it. I think the most important thing, and I say this to all of them, is, you know, focus on helping the Democrats win in 2026 so we can actually get the House back and have a fair election in 2028 and don't have Trump try to steal it. And so. And I think people get that. The thing I'm going to watch in 2026 is who all these candidates most want to campaign with them. Because in 2006, the whole world thought that Hillary Clinton was going to walk to the nomination. And you started to see all these candidates running who wanted this young, unknown guy named Barack Obama to campaign with them, not Hillary. And it started to become the rise of Barack Obama. And so I'm really looking at who these candidates want to campaign with them. And so far, it's a really interesting mix of people that aren't leading in the polls. And so I think that'll be the first thing that your very smart podcast looks at.
- [39:46]
Justin Webb
It's funny that, Jim, we've got to let you go, but I remember being at a debate that all the Democratic candidates were having in that election. You've just referred to that first time when it was Hillary and where was Obama? Who was this Obama and who were the others? Someone said that it's. It's like Gladys Knight and the Pips. In other words, you know, there just wasn't anyone else in the fight, they thought, until, of course, they realized that wasn't the case. We gotta let you go, though, Jim. It's such a pleasure to talk to you. Thanks. Thanks again enormously. And we'll stay in touch if we may.
- [40:18]
Jim Messina
Perfect. Thank you all. Have a good day.
- [40:26]
Sarah Rainsford
He's interesting, isn't he? I want to know who the 20 potential candidates he's met with are and more importantly, who he thinks has and has not got a chance. But of course, I mean, we've got three years to be talking about this, haven't we? Who's going to be emerging? Gavin Newsom, governor of California, often at the top of a lot of people's lists as a potential Democratic candidate for 2028. And what we haven't mentioned yet is that he had a pretty significant electoral victory as well with this Proposition 50, where he was asking California voters to allow him basically to change the electoral map to deliberately make five more House of Representatives seats winnable or almost guaranteed wins for the Democrats. Which, you know, it was in response to Texas doing a similar thing. But I don't know. I don't know why voters aren't a little bit more queasy about such a very, very deliberate gerrymandering.
- [41:19]
Anthony Zurcher
Well, you talk about, about the overwhelming need to win the House of Representatives if you're a Democrat, and this is one of the ways they could do that. And I think there was a lot of concern among Democrats that what Texas had done, essentially helping to cement a pickup of three or four more seats, maybe even five there to give them a better chance of holding that House majority, the Democrats in California felt that they had to do the same thing. And it, it is in California. It's temporary. It's only for the next few elections, and then it goes back to the way it was before, and the boundaries are drawn by this commission in 2030. But I guess it just tells you how much those Democrats want to win and how important they see control of the House of Representatives, control of any lever of power will be in next year's elections.
- [42:10]
Justin Webb
You know what? If we had a dinger, I would ding it now because I think we should make an announcement. We keep getting asked this question, who's in charge of the Democrats at the moment? Who's the leader? Guys, we've got a leader. We've got a leader, at least for the time being, it seems to me, and it is Gavin Newsom. And it's because of what you just been talking about. And it's not just because of that. It's because he took a risk in doing it. And I can remember, I think we even mentioned when he first announced that he was going to, to have this proposition that people said, oh, well, he might lose, and there was money going into the other campaigns, et cetera, et cetera, to stop it passing. And he raised the money Big time. Really big time. And he went ahead with it and he won it hands down.
- [42:56]
Gavin Newsom
Instead of agonizing over the state of our nation, we organized in an unprecedented way, in a 90 day sprint. People from all over the United States of America contribute their voices and their support for this initiative. We stood tall and we stood firm in response to Donald Trump's recklessness. And tonight, after poking the bear, this bear roared with an unprecedented turnout in a special election with an extraordinary result.
- [43:32]
Justin Webb
And it will potentially have a real national effect because it could either rescue the midterm elections for the Democrats, if it's a bit tight, or possibly give them a much bigger majority than they would otherwise have. And it also might lead to further meltdowns in Texas, where, of course, all of this started in a sense, where the Republicans in Texas decided that they wanted to do their own business. Bit of gerrymandering. In other words, it is potentially something that has had huge national consequences. And he, the governor of California, Gavin Newsom. Yes, he annoys a lot of Democrats. Yes, they say he's too smooth. Yes, they say he's obviously West Coasty, which he is. Yes, they say, hang on, what does he stand for? Because he does seem to be able to drift about a bit in the wind. But actually, it just seems to me he's done something and done something really eye catching. And at the moment, if we're asked the question, who's in charge? Increasingly, I think that's the answer, isn't it? It's Newsom.
- [44:36]
Anthony Zurcher
I've seen a few liberal commentators say, well, maybe I was wrong about Gavin Newsom, that he has won them over. So it's been an interesting journey this year for him, starting with having Steve Bannon on his podcast and generating a considerable amount of hate from liberals there. Some of his repositioning on transgender athletes in high school and college sports generated a lot of controversy. It felt like, oh, he's tacking to the right because he wants to win a general election. But then there's that moment where after the fires in California, after the Marines and the National Guard were activated in Los Angeles, where he kind of leaned into a fight with Donald Trump and started to kind of find his voice as presenting an alternative. And you're right, I think he has encouraged a lot of people on the left to give him another look, which is quite an accomplishment.
- [45:34]
Sarah Rainsford
Yeah. I don't know. Do you think he wants an AmericasT dinger, though, or Sting? The only two we've done so far have been for George Santos and for Elon Musk. So is that company?
- [45:42]
Anthony Zurcher
Gavin, you're Herschel Walker, too, don't forget. Oh, yes.
- [45:46]
Sarah Rainsford
Sounds like a cast list for Gavin Newsom's podcast.
- [45:48]
Anthony Zurcher
There you go. A reality TV show.
- [45:51]
Justin Webb
Yeah, that's it, guys. Anyway, we've declared a winner and our winner is Gavin Newsom, the governor of California. That's just about it this time round. My goodness, there's plenty to talk about. We ought to come back actually in our next episode, or possibly the one after, to what is going on in the Republican Party, because that too is very interesting. But for the time being, bye bye.
- [46:09]
Anthony Zurcher
Bye bye, y'.
- [46:11]
Sarah Rainsford
All. AmericasT AmericasT from BBC News, well done for getting all the way to the end of another AmericasT episode that makes you officially an Americaster. It's not easy navigating your way through the news in America, particularly at the moment, but you did it and we're delighted to have you with us. So if you do have a comment or a question about any of the stories we've talked about or anything you'd like us to talk about, do please get in touch. You can email us americastbc.co.uk you can WhatsApp us a message on 033-01-2390. And we do answer your questions every single week on the podcast. You can always join the discussion in our online community on Discord. The link is in our podcast description in your app, and we'll be back with another episode very soon. Till then, see you all later. Bye bye.
- [47:08]
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