Americast – "The Democrats are back…will it last?"

BBC News | November 6, 2025

Overview

In this episode, the Americast team dives into the surprising dominance of Democrats in recent US elections, the Republican Party’s ongoing internal struggles, and what the results might signal for the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race. Featuring regular hosts Sarah Rainsford, Anthony Zurcher, and Justin Webb, plus special guest Jim Messina, Barack Obama’s former campaign chief, the episode dissects key races, the state of each party, and the battle for voters’ hearts—and wallets.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Recent Election Results: A Big Night for Democrats

[01:36–03:38]

• Democratic wins across the US: Justin Webb opens by declaring, “Two things we can say about the Democrats. First, they are back. ...Number two, the Republicans appear to be having a kind of mini meltdown.”
• Hosts note that while Democrats succeeded in traditional blue strongholds, there were notable wins in swing and even red states, signaling deeper momentum.

The Pennsylvania and Georgia Surprise

[03:38–08:22]

• Pennsylvania Supreme Court: Democrats retained all three contested seats, keeping control over a body crucial for election rules.
  • Anthony Zurcher on significance: “Keeping a hold of state supreme courts is important when it comes to contesting election results, reviewing ballots, setting the rules for elections.” [04:19]
• Georgia Public Service Commission: Democrats win two statewide seats—for the first time in nearly two decades.
  • Even MAGA figure Steve Bannon called it “one of the biggest warning signs” for the GOP. [06:15]
  • Anthony notes: “Democrats haven't won a non federal... statewide race in Georgia since 2006. ...This is interesting, relevant.” [06:55]

Affordability as the Dominant Theme

[08:22–09:47]

• Across diverse races, utility prices and affordability took center stage. Sarah Rainsford notes, “Prices and affordability were at the heart of every single one of these campaigns, which is fascinating given that exactly a year ago we were talking about... Donald Trump swept the presidential election based on affordability...” [08:22]

2. Republican Dissonance and Trump's Role

[09:47–14:46]

• Trump’s shifting narratives:

  • Trump blames messaging, not policy, claiming Republicans’ “great job” on affordability goes unrecognized. [09:47]
  • He faults his own absence from the ballot, suggesting loyalists only show up when he is directly involved. [10:28]

• Anthony Zurcher: “If you look at the results, that definitely is the case. In 2018, Democrats did really well. Trump wasn't on the ballot...” [10:59]

  Quote—Trump:
  “They have this new word called affordability. And they don't talk about it enough.” — Donald Trump, [09:47]

• The Trump dilemma:

  • Anthony emphasizes the challenge: “There is a very real dropdown for anyone who is not named Donald Trump Senior on the ballot.” [12:35]
  • Speculation about other Trumps—Don Jr., Eric—fills the vacuum, but none proven.

Shutdown Fallout and Party Infighting

[14:46–18:16]

• The ongoing government shutdown is hitting the GOP hard; Trump suggests ending the filibuster, highlighting party divisions.
  • Anthony: “Republicans are getting blamed for, for the shutdown. And part of that I think is because Republicans are the ones in control.” [14:46]
• Real-world impacts (air traffic delays, federal pay issues) are compounding political damage.

Right-Wing Civil War Over Extremism

[18:16–22:25]

• MAGA faction is embroiled in controversy after Tucker Carlson interviews notorious white nationalist Nick Fuentes.
  • Anthony: “You're having a kind of in the public debate about what conservatives and the conservative movement should do with these white nationalists within their own midst.” [19:35]
  • Senator Lindsey Graham quips he is part of the “Hitler sucks wing” of the GOP. [19:35]
• The party struggles with extremism, as influential hatemongers still have dedicated followings.

3. Analysis with Jim Messina: How Deep is the Democratic Comeback?

[23:06–39:46]

Messina identifies three big takeaways:

1. Trump’s Approval is Plummeting:
   “His [Trump's] approval rating in the economy... is now 60% [disapproval], including 66% with swing voters.” [23:42]
2. Democratic Candidates Won on Economic Focus:
   “Democrats ran really good candidates who didn’t focus on the social issues that our party has been obsessed with and instead focused straight on affordability and economic issues.” [23:42]
   • Winning strategy: “When Democrats win the economic argument... we win the election.” [23:42]
3. Voters’ Coalitions Are Shifting:
   • Trump’s 2024 win depended on a unique coalition—especially young men.
   • “Mondani won young men by 40 points. ...The question for the Republicans and Democrats is who’s going to win this emerging coalition?” [23:42]

Latino Voters: Gains, but Caution

[26:14–28:51]

• Latino turnout for Democrats looks good in low-turnout elections, but Messina cautions: “The actual number of voters she got of Latinos would not be enough in a big general election in 2026 or 2028.” [26:46]
• The Democratic “brand sucks and Tuesday night did nothing to improve that.” [26:46]

Can Democrats Translate Wins Nationwide?

[28:51–31:57]

• Messina: “If we are going to win the House... we’ve got to win in tough districts, and I don’t think last night solved that. ...It showed what you need to do.” [29:42]
• Praises innovative social media tactics from Zoram Mamdani.

The Branding Problem

[31:32–31:57]

• Republicans pivot to label all Democrats as “far left” (esp. using Mamdani), but in New Jersey this failed: “She won by double digits...because she focused on pocketbook issues, which is what Democrats have to do.” [31:57]

Local Red Flags

[33:43–34:59]

• In Nassau County, Long Island, GOP dominance remains—a warning for 2026 New York gubernatorial race.

Danger of Democratic Purity Tests

[34:59–37:19]

• Messina warns: “There’s a very boisterous... minority... that seem to want to have a purity test. ...You can have that test. You’re just going to be in the minority for a very long time. ...That’s how we got Donald Trump, too.” [35:31]
• 2028 nomination battle could spark a “civil war for the soul of the Democratic Party.” [36:33]

Democratic Big Tent, Looking Forward

• Messina highlights the party’s messy but pragmatic approach:

  “Here’s the great thing about the Democrats and why I love them so much is we really love to win and we really love to govern because we understand what governing is.” [37:19]

• Hints that the 2028 nominee will likely be whoever is best at building a coalition—not necessarily the most “pure” candidate.

4. The Gavin Newsom Gambit

[40:25–45:33]

• California Governor Gavin Newsom’s successful Proposition 50 passes, increasing Democratic odds in the House via (temporary) gerrymandering.
  • Sarah Rainsford questions: “Why voters aren’t a little bit more queasy about such a very, very deliberate gerrymandering.” [41:18]
  • Justin Webb argues Newsom is now the de facto national Democratic leader [42:09]:

  “We keep getting asked this question, who's in charge of the Democrats at the moment?...it is Gavin Newsom.”

  • Newsom, reflecting on his win:
    “Instead of agonizing over the state of our nation, we organized in an unprecedented way...” [42:56]
  • Anthony Zurcher: “I've seen a few liberal commentators say, well, maybe I was wrong about Gavin Newsom, that he has won them over.” [44:36]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Democratic resurgence:
  “They were kind of better than even the brightest predictions. So it's a fairly interesting week to look and see where my beloved country is.” — Jim Messina [23:08]

• On the limits of party branding:
  “The Democratic brand sucks and Tuesday night did nothing to improve that. ...Unless we can do overall what we did on Tuesday night, which is be very clear about what we're for economically, I still think we're, we're in for tough times in the future.” — Jim Messina [26:46]

• On Republicans’ post-Trump vacuum:
  “Does Don Jr. have that magic that Donald Trump Sr. has? ...The evidence so far...is that there is a very real dropdown for anyone who is not named Donald Trump Senior on the ballot.” — Anthony Zurcher [12:35]

• On gerrymandering and Democratic ruthlessness:
  “It is in California. It's temporary. ...But I guess it just tells you how much those Democrats want to win...” — Anthony Zurcher [41:18]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:36] — Opening discussion of the Democrats’ resurgence
• [03:38] — State-by-state breakdown (PA, GA) of Democratic victories
• [08:22] — Affordability as the central issue of the elections
• [09:47] — Trump’s response and impact of his absence from the ballot
• [14:46] — Shutdown fallout and Republican blame
• [18:16] — MAGA infighting and the Nick Fuentes controversy
• [23:06] — Jim Messina joins; analysis of what the results mean for both parties
• [26:46] — Latino voters’ turnout and implications for Democrats
• [29:42] — The Democratic brand problem and lessons from Mandani
• [31:57] — GOP attacks on “the left” and effectiveness in different states
• [33:43] — Democratic losses in Long Island; local warning signs
• [34:59] — Purity tests and the party’s need for a broad coalition
• [41:18] — Gavin Newsom’s victory in California and new national prominence
• [42:56] — Newsom’s victory speech

Episode Tone & Takeaways

• The hosts maintain their trademark mix of wry skepticism and deep analytical rigor, peppered with in-jokes and playful jabs.
• The message is clear: Democrats have momentum, but voter coalitions are unstable, and looming crises (party brand, messaging, turnout) remain.
• Republicans, meanwhile, are depicted as increasingly dysfunctional—torn between MAGA infighting, extremism controversies, and the problem of “Trump or bust” turnout.

Bottom line:
Democrats are back—for now. Whether it lasts hinges on their ability to translate victories in smaller races into a broader, sustainable coalition—while Republicans must decide what, and who, they stand for in a post-Trump world.