Americast — “Were Our 2025 Predictions Right?”
BBC News | December 24, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Smith, Justin Webb, Marianna Spring, Anthony Zurcher
Episode Overview
The Americast team looks back at the predictions they made for 2025, opening their annual “time capsule” of forecasts. The episode revisits their calls on politics, social media trends, legal milestones, and cultural currents in America, scrutinizing which predictions came true and reflecting on major “under the radar” stories they spotlighted. With humor and candor, the presenters debate how well they understood the trajectory of Trump’s return to the White House, shifts in media power, key legal battles, and unfolding social and cultural flashpoints.
Key Segments & Insights
1. Opening: Listener Challenge & The Purpose of the Time Capsule
[00:57–03:55]
- Listener Question: Paul from London wonders if the team reviews past predictions for accuracy and impact.
- Justin: “We don't really measure our performance and effectiveness, Paul, because that might have an impact that we don't want to have. But... yes.” [00:57]
- The “Americast time capsule” is an annual feature where the team revisits and evaluates their previous year’s predictions about US affairs.
2. Prediction Spotlights & Analysis
A. Anthony’s Prediction: Congressional Gridlock & Government Shutdown
[03:59–06:46]
- Prediction: Congress would fail to pass a funding bill, triggering a government shutdown—even with Republican control (House, Senate, Presidency).
- Anthony: “...we will have a shutdown for more than one day at the very least. So get ready to see all those stories again...” [03:59]
- Result: 100% correct. The US saw the longest shutdown in American history.
- Anthony: Surprised that Democrats’ resistance, not GOP infighting, prolonged the shutdown. Unclear if either party paid a substantial political price.
- Sarah: “Interestingly, it was the longest government shutdown in history. It had some pretty big impacts across the country, but I don't think either party paid a huge political price.” [05:30]
B. Sarah’s Prediction: Trump Wins the Nobel Peace Prize?
[06:53–09:18]
- Prediction: Trump would win the Nobel Peace Prize, potentially for brokering Middle East deals or ending the Ukraine conflict.
- Sarah: “If he was to put together the kind of deal he wants, normalizing relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, for instance, and significant movement on some of the other issues...” [06:53]
- Result: Did not happen—yet. Trump’s self-promotion and claims about global peacemaking became a talking point but no prize.
- Justin: “He could get it next year. So, you know, we don't have to get it right in the year in which we're predicting it.” [08:27]
- Anthony: Jokes about Trump winning the “FIFA Peace Prize” instead.
- Sarah: Notes unresolved Ukraine-Russia conflict—Trump’s “peace” more rhetoric than reality.
C. Marianna’s Prediction: Social Media Power Struggles—Zuckerberg “Survivor”
[09:18–13:15]
- Prediction: Mark Zuckerberg would outmaneuver Elon Musk and Trump, consolidating his power as the “shrewdest tactician,” especially amid TikTok uncertainty.
- Mariana: “Mark Zuckerberg is the shrewdest tactician of all of them, he's the one who won't fall out with Donald Trump because he only did that when it was actually kind of beneficial to him...” [09:26]
- Outcome: Largely accurate about Zuckerberg’s adaptability—Meta shifted policies closer to Trump’s positions; TikTok avoided a ban via a US consortium.
- Analysis: The conversation pivots to the rising dominance of AI industry leaders (Sam Altman, Jensen Huang of Nvidia), perhaps even more powerful than social executives today.
- Marianna: “Maybe it's wrong to single out any one of these bosses... It's actually just the whole of that industry that are learning to thrive under Donald Trump.” [12:55]
D. Justin’s Prediction: Supreme Court & Puberty Blockers
[13:24–15:42]
- Prediction: The US Supreme Court would uphold Tennessee’s ban on puberty blockers for minors, causing a nationwide ripple effect on trans healthcare.
- Justin: “My prediction is that the Supreme Court will find in favor of the state... And I think this court case... will be a very big, potentially long term political issue.” [13:24]
- Result: Upheld. Tennessee’s law stood, and similar bans spread across GOP-controlled states.
- Assessment: Impact more about Trump’s cultural agenda than this court case alone; Democrats have deprioritized trans issues after their election defeat.
- Sarah: “They've stopped defending this. So it's now become a one sided argument which ends up not being an argument at all.” [15:42]
- Anthony: Notes that cultural issues like trans rights faded from Democratic campaign focus; Trump weaponized prior statements against Harris.
3. “Under the Radar” — Predictions & Story Follow-ups
A. Marianna: RFK Jr., Vaccine Policy, and Public Health Fallout
[17:56–22:16]
- Prediction: RFK Jr.’s appointment and committee shakeups would sideline pro-vaccine experts, stoke misinformation, and yield public health risks.
- Mariana: "...some of the people who he has been putting into these positions are people who have grown their following on social media spreading stuff that is actually not true about vaccinations..." [18:36]
- Outcome: Measles and whooping cough cases rose; a public health shift away from vaccine mandates is observed, especially in states like Florida.
- Political cost: Unclear—many Americans don’t directly connect health declines with RFK Jr.'s policies until outbreaks hit their communities.
B. Anthony: Grassroots Protests — “No Kings” & the Online Left
[22:39–26:46]
- Prediction: Anti-Trump street protests and resistance would regain momentum, especially around immigration enforcement.
- Result: Some growth in protest activity (e.g., “No Kings” rallies), including viral “inflatable dinosaur” protests.
- Marianna: Describes how the left updated its social media playbook—copying Trump’s “trolling” tactics, embracing personality-driven campaigns, and leveraging TikTok trends.
- Memorable Quote: “...being normal basically and seeming normal and likable and charismatic and genuine, but in a way that wasn't cringe and trying too hard, he, he got that.” [25:53] (on Zora Mamdani’s viral mayoral win)
C. Justin: Obamacare Subsidy Cuts & Republican Divisions
[26:46–31:15]
- Prediction: Loss of COVID-era health insurance subsidies would go “under the radar” but cause significant pain and intra-GOP conflict.
- Justin: “...tens of millions... will be looking for someone to blame.” [27:10]
- Result: Cuts haven’t hit yet (set for January), but tension is boiling over. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s public break with Trump illustrates grassroots/MAGA discontent.
D. Sarah: Deportations & Immigration Enforcement — The Human Cost
[31:15–33:20]
- Case Study: The wrongful deportation and criminal prosecution of Kilmar Abrego Garcia highlights the draconian and sometimes vindictive enforcement tactics of the Trump administration.
- Sarah: “...he was finally released from detention and a judge ruled that he couldn't be re detained either... and has become rather emblematic of all of the deportation that were going on.” [31:29–33:20]
- Ongoing fight: The administration continues seeking ways to deport high-profile immigrants despite legal setbacks.
4. Bonus Segment: Anthony’s Sports Predictions
[34:09–35:15]
- Super Bowl: Eagles (correct)
- March Madness: Predicted Duke (wrong, Final Four finish)
- Stanley Cup: Picked Capitals (wrong, Panthers win)
- World Series: Dodgers (correct)
- Anthony: “If you'd gone to Vegas with that, you probably could have made a little bit of money.” [35:15]
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
- Sarah, on self-correction: “Yeah, we do sometimes get it wrong. But this is our annual feature where we specifically do that.” [01:36]
- Anthony, on the shutdown: “...the first shutdown since the beginning of 2019. So it had been a while.” [04:50]
- Marianna, on social media tactics: “Musk goes along to a load of the stuff that, that Trump organizes... they're kind of in this sort of like, I don't know if uncomfortable is the right word, maybe fairly comfortable friendship.” [11:58]
- Justin, on the Supreme Court’s impact: “I think you could make a case that the biggest changes have been cultural.” [14:38]
- Sarah, on Democratic strategy: “...liberals in general have realized after their crushing election defeat that concentrating on these kind of social issues... costs them in middle America...” [15:42]
Timestamps for Key Segments
- Listener Challenge & Time Capsule Intro — 00:57–03:55
- Anthony on Government Shutdown — 03:59–06:46
- Sarah on Trump and Peace Prize — 06:53–09:18
- Marianna on Social Media Bosses — 09:26–13:15
- Justin on Supreme Court & Puberty Blockers — 13:24–15:42
- RFK Jr. Vaccine Policy Fallout — 17:56–22:16
- Anthony on “No Kings” Protests — 22:39–26:46
- Justin on Healthcare Subsidy Cuts — 26:46–31:15
- Sarah on Deportations — 31:15–33:20
- Anthony's Sports Predictions — 34:09–35:15
Tone & Style Reflections
The episode captures Americast’s signature mix of rigorous reporting, dry wit, and conversational candor. The panel are self-deprecating about their misses and cheerfully competitive about their prophetic hits, offering a model of transparent, evidence-based journalism. The dynamic reflects an ongoing commitment to follow stories from headline to aftermath—and to admit, with humility and humor, the limits of even the best predictions.
For further discussion or feedback, listeners are encouraged to email or contact the team via WhatsApp or the Americast Discord.