What will be the biggest US stories of 2026?

Summary

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Americast (BBC) — "What will be the biggest US stories of 2026?"

Release Date: December 31, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Smith, Justin Webb, Marianna Spring, Anthony Zurcher
Episode Theme Overview:
The Americast team returns for their annual “time capsule” episode, forecasting the most significant US stories and political developments they expect in 2026. Recorded at the tail end of 2025, this episode centers on predictions for the 2026 midterms, the fate of Trump’s administration, key cabinet shakeups, the continuing politicization of social and cultural events like the 2026 World Cup, and potential constitutional crises. Each host contributes their boldest prediction, discussing the stakes and uncertainties that shape the American landscape for the year ahead, all in their characteristically lively and incisive style.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

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1. Predictions for the 2026 Midterms and Their Impact on Trump

Timestamps: 02:27–07:49

• Anthony Zurcher forecasts a “Democratic wave election,” with Democrats likely to retake the House of Representatives based on special elections in 2025, where Democrats outperformed their 2024 results by an average of 13%. He adds, “while the Democrats won’t flip the four seats they need to take control of the Senate, they are going to win a seat that we’re not expecting... Texas, Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. I think the Democrats will win at least one.” (03:23)
• Sarah Smith cautions that economic performance could still swing things: “If Donald Trump is able to set the economy on a better course, if prices are in a better place in November 2026 than they were in 2025, all of that could change.” (03:56)
• The panel discusses how economic sentiment, particularly inflation and wages, will drive voter behavior. Justin captures the stakes: “I just can’t imagine the bloodletting in that circumstance,” if the Democrats don't flip the House after two years of Trump. (04:33)
• Mariana Spring quips on the economy, “It’s all about the eggs in the end, Anthony.” (05:38) Anthony: “The eggs are actually pretty good right now. Eggs are cheap. It’s beef and some other consumer electricity.” (05:43)
• Discussion on Hispanic support for Trump turning “flaky,” likely tied to cost-of-living concerns.

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2. The Texas Senate Race and Democratic Momentum

Timestamps: 06:17–07:49

• Anthony outlines the Texas Senate race, noting several Democratic contenders including evangelical centrist Talarico and outspoken liberal Jasmine Crockett, who previously sparred with Marjorie Taylor Greene: “She is a very much outspoken liberal…got into that kind of shouting match…saying that she was a bleach blonde dye job.” (07:12)

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3. US Military Actions in Venezuela and Beyond

Timestamps: 07:49–09:53

• Listener Mary asks if strikes on Venezuelan drug boats will continue or expand to land.
• Sarah predicts escalation: “I think he currently believes that with some targeted land strike and some other actions, he can topple the Maduro regime.” (08:01)
• Anthony expresses surprise there haven’t been land strikes yet, questioning what’s holding Trump back.
• Sarah foresees Trump seeking to tackle fentanyl in Mexico after Venezuela: “He’s then going to want to tackle the real source of fentanyl…some kind of military action to try and force the Mexican government to stop the flow.” (09:01)

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4. The 2026 World Cup: Politics and Controversy

Timestamps: 09:53–11:25

• Mariana and Justin agree the World Cup will proceed but be riddled with logistical and political drama.
• Sarah: “It’s going to happen. It’ll be heavily politicized because Donald Trump’s involved… threatening to move games away from Democrat run cities…immigration officers checking people’s status as they’re going in and out of matches which would cause a huge fuss.” (10:37)
• Anthony: “This is what Donald Trump the showman likes to do… he is good at kind of soaking up the attention and being able to kind of direct things from above the way he did with his reality television show The Apprentice.” (11:05)

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5. The Republican Party’s Future: Who Succeeds Trump?

Timestamps: 11:25–15:49

• Listener Brenda inquires about Republican frontrunners and “bending the knee” to Trump.
• Anthony: “J.D. Vance is the heir apparent. He seems to be the one who is best positioned to pick up the torch from Donald Trump. Although Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, has done a remarkable job… You could even see Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. decide to run as an outsider…” (11:49)
• Trump reportedly suggested his successor is “probably sitting at this table” at his Cabinet—indicating loyalty and proximity matter most.
• Sarah: “It will be somebody who Trump anoints essentially, or at least is not opposed to. You’re not going to win this nomination by running against Donald Trump.” (13:21)
• Discussion of “influencers” as potential candidates: speculation around Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, even the late Charlie Kirk (“he was assassinated…not an option.”) and discussion of media figures like Megyn Kelly angling for MAGA support.

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6. Time Capsule Predictions – The Panel’s 2026 Forecasts

Timestamps: 15:49–25:04

• Justin: Predicts after (probable) loss of House & Senate in 2026, Marjorie Taylor Greene will announce early for the 2028 Republican nomination. “She will be a surprisingly serious candidate. And the war that we’ve kind of been talking about within MAGA will open up into something much, much bigger.” (16:07)
• Anthony: Predicts a major cabinet shakeup: “Donald Trump is going to have to try to find a new person to replace [one of the big three]…if the economy doesn’t do well, [Treasury Secretary] may become the scapegoat…” (17:17)
• Sarah suggests Defense Secretary (Pete Hegseth) might be more vulnerable because “it is a bit of a loose cannon…obvious how much the military themselves dislike him.” (18:22)
• Mariana: Predicts RFK Jr. will “find himself in quite a lot of trouble this year” over controversial health policy decisions. “If there are several more announcements…which appear contrary to scientific advice, and then also communities actually start to feel the impact…people are actually really unwell…he could fall out of favor.” (19:26)
  • She also forecasts a “real falling out” between Trump and Elon Musk, with Musk and Rogan taking the alternative social media world with them.
  • Third, she senses a cooling of MAGA’s relationship with big tech/social platforms—potentially driven by growing concern about social media’s effects on children.
• Sarah: Envisions a Constitutional Crisis: “If the Supreme Court tells Donald Trump his tariffs are illegal…he’s not going to comply with that. And we’re going to see him facing off against the Supreme Court in a fascinating way.” (24:00)

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7. Will the Supreme Court Stand Up to Trump?

Timestamps: 26:42–27:58

• Justin: “Is this Supreme Court capable of…standing up to Donald Trump in the next year, this crucial year, or not?”
• Sarah: “This is the case where they might do it.”
• Anthony: “There are cases where they’re going to start drawing lines… we talked about constitutional crises, and part of the reasons why we didn’t get a constitutional crisis this year is because the Supreme Court generally sided with Donald Trump time and time again…So I think we’re going to get some decisions he doesn’t like…a mixed bag, because the Supreme Court likes Donald Trump and they seem to like presidential power.” (27:04)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Anthony Zurcher, on the 2026 midterms:
  “This is looking more and more, if you look out over the past year, like a Democratic wave election…the Democrats have improved their standing over 2024 by an average of 13%.” (02:51)
• Sarah Smith, on Trump’s fortunes:
  “If people feel better off in November next year than they did in November this year…then I think actually the midterms will go much better for him.” (03:56)
• Mariana Spring:
  “It’s all about the eggs in the end, Anthony.” (05:38)
• Sarah Smith, World Cup spectacle:
  “It’ll be heavily politicized because Donald Trump’s involved… threatening to try and move games away from Democrat run cities.” (10:37)
• Anthony Zurcher, on Trump’s successor:
  “If someone tries to cross Trump…the base won’t be happy. Two, Donald Trump won’t be happy. And if Donald Trump’s not happy, he could make life very difficult…Just ask…Mike Pence.” (11:49)
• Mariana Spring, the Musk split:
  “Him and Elon Musk actually fall out this year properly. Not like a fallout and be friends again—but, like, for real fallout.” (20:35)
• Sarah Smith, Constitutional crisis prediction:
  “If the Supreme Court tells Donald Trump his tariffs are illegal…he’s not going to comply with that. And we’re going to see him facing off against the Supreme Court in a fascinating way.” (24:00)

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Key Timestamps for Reference

• 02:27 — Listeners’ questions and predictions for the midterms
• 07:49 — Venezuela & military escalation
• 09:53 — 2026 World Cup drama
• 11:25 — Republican succession and “bend the knee”
• 15:49 — Time Capsule predictions
• 24:00 — Sarah’s constitutional crisis scenario
• 27:04 — Supreme Court’s likely stance towards Trump in 2026

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Tone & Style

The episode maintains Americast’s usual balance of analytical rigor and lively, informal banter. The hosts challenge one another’s predictions, readily admit when issues are uncertain, and inject humor — even in discussing serious risks like constitutional crises or party infighting. Listener questions are woven throughout, making listeners feel like co-contributors. The tone is thoughtful but nimble, offering plausible scenarios alongside some sharp asides and memorable one-liners.

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In Summary

This Americast “time capsule” episode stands as a punchy, insightful forecast of America’s likely political and cultural flashpoints in 2026: midterm elections, possible foreign policy adventures, the Republican succession scramble, and looming constitutional showdowns. It’s a blueprint for a tumultuous year, brimming with political risks—as well as the Americast team’s trademark blend of wise and witty commentary.

Transcript

[Justin]

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[Sarah]

Everyone has their own family traditions and rituals around this time of year. And on ameracast, we've got one too. We have begun putting out predictions for the year ahead in our Americast Time capsule. And over the last couple of years, we've had varying degrees of success in what we've been predicting. And maybe unwisely, we're going to try and do it again. Welcome to the americast time capsule 2026.

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AmeriCast AmeriCast from BBC News, when Donald.

[Anthony]

Trump calls, they say, yes sir, right away, sir.

[Ad Announcer]

Happy to lick your boot, sir. We are the sickest country in the world.

[Anthony]

Oh dear.

[Ad Announcer]

Are you worried that billionaires are going to go hungry? Of course the President supports peaceful protests. What a stupid question.

[Anthony]

Are you still talking about Jeffrey Epstein? Hello, from Washington, D.C. it's Anthony and.

[Justin]

It'S Justin in the worldwide headquarters of AmericasT in London, England.

[Mariana]

And it is Mariana next to Justin in the worldwide headquarters and Sarah here.

[Sarah]

Very happy to say. I am set with Justin and Mariana here in Broadcasting House in London. Later in this episode, you will get all of our big predictions for what might happen in 2026, and then we will seal them in that time capsule and not revisit them until this time next year.

[Justin]

And I should say we are recording this towards the end of 2025. And let us start with answering some of the things that you Americasters want us to talk about, want us to predict.

[Mariana]

First of all is Esme, who says, I'd love to hear your predictions about the midterms coming up and how you think they'll impact Trump. Thank you. I feel like we should start with Anthony because he'll probably be right.

[Sarah]

Yeah.

[Anthony]

Well, I think the Democrats are going to take control of the House of Representatives. It seems to be trending that way. It doesn't take a lot of of a swing for them to win the seats necessary. And this is looking more and more, if you look out over the past year, like a Democratic wave election, the special elections that have been held across the country over the past year, Democrats have improved their standing over 2024 by an average of 13%. If they even come close to that mark, 10%, 9%, they are going to win enough House seats to win control of the House. I'm going to make another prediction which is a little more out on a limb, and that is while the Democrats won't flip the four seats they need to take control of the Senate, they are going to win a seat that we're not expecting, someplace that it looks safe for Republicans but won't be safe come November, and that is Texas, Florida, Ohio or Iowa. I think the Democrats will win at least one of those, which would be a reversal from these states that have been trending red for quite some time.

[Sarah]

Now the way things stand at the moment. Anthony's absolutely right. That is what looks likely to happen. The one thing that could upset that is if Donald Trump is able to set the economy on a better course, if prices are in a better place in November 2026 than they were in 2025, all of that could change. And it doesn't take much more than that. It doesn't mean he has to solve peace in Ukraine or deliver on some of his. If people feel better off in November next year than they did in November this year, then I think actually the midterms will go much better for him. And I think he might be wrong about the Democrats flipping the House. Right.

[Justin]

Really, they won't flip the House. Cause that's a big deal. After two years of Donald Trump and all that's been said about his rule and misrule, as the Democrats would say and many Americans would say. And also given his unpopularity, which seems to be increasing at the moment, and all we've been saying about those aspects of his administration that seem not to be kind of functioning properly even in those circumstances. You're saying it is at least possible that the Democrats don't win back the House. I just can't imagine the bloodletting in that circumstance.

[Sarah]

It's possible in the circumstances in which inflation has been tackled, people feel their wages are going up, that if prices are not coming down, they are at least stabilized and they feel that their money goes further than it did previously. And that's not easy to achieve. There's no, it's not a given that Donald Trump can do any of that within the space of 12 months. And we don't know what's going to happen to his tariffs and a whole series of other things that might get in the way of that. But if you can pull off that remarkable economic feat, then I think they've got a.

[Mariana]

It's all about the eggs in the end, Anthony.

[Anthony]

The eggs are actually pretty good right now. Eggs are cheap. It's beef and some other consumer electricity.

[Mariana]

Good time to be veggie vegetarian. They're like sitting in the dark.

[Justin]

I just think it's a bit wider than that as well, isn't it? It's the way in which the elections we've just seen seem to suggest that Hispanic support for Donald Trump, which was huge, record breaking in the presidential election, seems to be pretty flaky, to put it mildly.

[Sarah]

Because it's about prices.

[Justin]

Because it's about prices and whether they're going to come back or not. I'm going to stick with Anthony. I think Anthony's right. Win back the House.

[Anthony]

This is politics.

[Justin]

Yeah, this is politics. I actually think they might win the Senate as well because, I mean, have they got a, have the Democrats got a candidate yet in Texas? Cause that would be a massive deal, wouldn't it?

[Anthony]

They have a couple of candidates actually in Texas right now. Talarico is a state legislator. He is running. He is an evangelical centrist. And a lot of people think he might have a chance of toppling well, whoever the Republican nominee is, because we don't know that quite yet either. There's an incumbent, but the incumbent is being challenged on the right. And we could see Paxton, who is a Trump favorite but also hard right, end up knocking off John Cornyn, who is the incumbent. But there's another Democrat who just jumped into the race in Texas, Jasmine Crockett, who I think we've looked at before, we talked about before. She is a very much outspoken liberal who loves swiping at Donald Trump, got into that kind of shouting match with Marjorie Taylor Greene in a Congressional hearing at one point saying that she was a bleach blonde dye job. I think it was.

[Ad Announcer]

I'm just curious just to better understand your ruling. If someone on this committee then starts talking about somebody's bleach blonde, bad built, butch body, that would not be engaging in personalities. Correct.

[Anthony]

A what now? Anyway, there is a, there are candidates. It could be a really interesting race.

[Justin]

Okay. Mary asked, do the team think the strikes on alleged Venezuelan drug boats will continue in the new year? Might they actually be expanded to land strikes? Trump has mentioned doing so. He is known to bluster, Mary points out.

[Sarah]

Yeah, but I think he's pretty serious about trying to get rid of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela because this has been going on for quite, quite some time now. And as soon as he perceives it being a power struggle, then he has to win, doesn't he? And we know that Donald Trump, yes, as Mary says, has mentioned potential land strikes. He's also authorized covert CIA action inside Venezuela. I don't think we'll ever see American boots on the ground, despite the huge buildup of troops that there are in the, in the region. I don't, I don't think he would go that far. But I think he currently believes that with some targeted land strike and some other actions, he can topple the Maduro regime. And if he can do that, I think he wants to.

[Anthony]

Yeah. I'm kind of surprised we haven't seen land strikes yet. I mean, he's been talking about them now for several weeks, saying they're coming soon. The fact that it, they haven't pulled the trigger on this makes me wonder what's holding them up, what their concerns are and, and, and whether there's, there's more complicating factors. And it's not as easy as Donald Trump makes it seem.

[Sarah]

I think he's going to go further afield as well. I think he's going to tackle other places, too. The reasoning given by the administration for the attacks on the Venezuelan boats is that they're smuggling drugs into the United States and that illegal drugs kill so many Americans with overdoses. Well, we know it's mostly cocaine that comes from Venezuela, and we know a lot of it's headed for Europe, actually, and not headed for the US Once he's dealt with Venezuela, I think he's then going to want to tackle the real source of fentanyl, which is what's killing so many Americans. And to do that, he needs to do something with Mexico. And I think it's not impossible that we'll see some kind of encouragement. Not an invasion, he's not going to take over Mexico, but some kind of military action to try and force the Mexican government to stop the flow of fentanyl from there into the United States. I think once he's dealt with Venezuela, he's really going to want to get on with fentanyl.

[Mariana]

Okay. Rose on Discord has asked will the World cup go off as planned? I think my answer to that would be yes, in a big way, I imagine. I mean you'd think that there will be various twists and turns and tensions in the build up. It's, it's a massive World cup by the way. There are a huge number of teams and a huge number of games and it's going to be a pretty big feat to sort of pull it all off without there being any, I don't know, weather events or other things that delay games and interrupt proceedings. And then also you imagine that there might be tensions between some of the host cities and their, the people in charge there and Donald Trump.

[Justin]

I mean there are all sorts of ways in which there will be controversies and dramas, Sarah, they're going to keep you busy. But, but I think it will go off and it is going to happen and he wants it to happen, doesn't it? And happen successfully.

[Sarah]

It's going to happen. It'll be heavily politicized because Donald Trump's involved. So everything gets politicized with the potential of him threatening to try and move games away from Democrat run cities he doesn't like. He probably can't do that. But that doesn't mean he's not going to talk about it and cause a fuss. And then there's the potential also for immigration officers checking people's status as they're going in and out of matches which would cause a huge fuss. And Anthony, I imagine Donald Trump also wants to use it as a stage for himself.

[Anthony]

This is what Donald Trump the showman likes to do and what he is honestly pretty good at. He is good at kind of soaking up the attention and being able to kind of direct things from above the way he did with his reality television show the Apprentice.

[Justin]

Okay, let's move on. Brenda asks us this.

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Hi AmericasT, this is Brenda from Belfast looking forward to the next leader of the Republican Party who are the front runners and will they have to bend the knee to Trump to get ahead?

[Anthony]

Yeah, I actually just wrote about this for the BBC website. I direct everyone's attention to that. It was an in depth piece that went up earlier this month.

[Justin]

They will have already read it, Anthony. Then.

[Anthony]

Well, then they know that J.D. vance is the heir apparent. He seems to be the one who is best positioned to pick up the torch from Donald Trump. Although Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, has done a remarkable job transitioning from a Trump opponent in 2016 during the Republican primaries to one of Donald Trump's most avowed MAGA supporters when it comes to foreign policy. You could even see Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. Decide to run as an outsider, or maybe someone from outside the White House itself. But it was fascinating. Donald Trump in early December had a Cabinet meeting where he was sitting there and everyone was arrayed around him at the Cabinet table. And he said that the next president, the next Republican nominee, is probably sitting at this table. It might be several of them. So he seems to think that it's going to be someone from his inner circle. And the question will be, will they bend the knee, as Brenda has written? And I think maybe not bend the knee, but they will have to stay in step with Donald Trump's base, because that is the Republican Party now. That is where the Republican Party is. And if someone tries to cross Trump or try to move away from where that base is, one, the base won't be happy. Two, Donald Trump won't be happy. And if Donald Trump's not happy, he could make life very difficult for any of these Republican presidential hopefuls. Just ask his previous vice presidential running mate, Mike Pence.

[Sarah]

Yeah, I think Anthony's right. And it will be somebody who Trump anoints essentially, or at least is not a opposed to. You're not going to win this nomination by running against Donald Trump. It is interesting that every time he's asked about who his successor is, he names J.D. vance, as he well should his vice president, but he always mentions Marco Rubio as well. I wonder if the base think that Rubio is really MAGA at heart, though. I wonder if there wouldn't be some suspicion about whether he really is a true believer. And I'm sure he'll face opposition from other people who sit around that Cabinet table, like Kristi Noem, Pete Hegseth, some of these slightly more unlikely characters, but who are clearly ambitious and who are popular with the base, may very well not win the nomination, but we'll see quite a few of them in the primary contests, I would think.

[Mariana]

Yeah.

[Justin]

And. And what about influences? Yeah, well, answer that question then, Marion. Are there influences? I mean, people talk about Tucker Carlson, but other people on the, the kind of broader right, including the far right.

[Mariana]

Who might have a go in interestingly, really, if you'd asked me this eight months ago, I would have actually said someone like Charlie Kirk was. Could have been the type of person who might. Maybe not this time around. Maybe next time around was even old enough. Well, yeah. Oh, I don't know if he would have been. He was in his early 30s. How old do you have to be again?

[Justin]

35.

[Mariana]

Oh, no, he might, he wouldn't. He wouldn't have quite been old enough this time around anyway. He, he was assassinated. And so he's obviously not an option.

[Justin]

Yeah, but that kind of person, you were saying might.

[Mariana]

Yeah, I mean, no one is extreme as, say, Nick Fuentes. You know, they're, they're very, very far to the right. And I, I don't think that they would be an option. But Tucker Carlson or even like, Joe Rogan, I mean, I don't think Joe Rogan will again do it this time around. But there are these kinds of people, or your RFK Jr. Like, there are, there are the people who, if it starts to go a tall, pear shape for Donald Trump and there's this perception that he is, you know, he's done well to build this image of. I'm against the elite cabal. I'm against the kind of usual political approach. If people stop buying into that and turn away and he loses that kind of alternative media base which he, he's started to lose it.

[Justin]

I was hearing someone the other day talking quite seriously about Megyn Kelly.

[Mariana]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Justin]

Well, I mean, I don't. Look, she's got a podcast, is very successful on the, on the right. She's been very Trump adjacent, has damaged herself, I think, with some journalists who quite admired her because she doesn't seem able now to criticize the president. But is that, is that because she's angling for the MAGA base? I don't know.

[Sarah]

So now this is the big one, the moment we have all been waiting for. Each one of us has to put down our predictions for 2026 before they are locked up, sealed in the time capsule, and will never be seen again until they are brought out to embarrass us this time next year.

[Justin]

Okay? My prediction is that following the loss of the House and the Senate to the Democrats by Donald Trump or by the Republicans in the 2026 midterms, Marjorie Taylor Greene will announce early that she is running for the Republican nomination. And I think she will be a surprisingly serious candidate. And the war that we've kind of been talking about within MAGA will open up into something much Much bigger. So I. My prediction is that not only is she going to be a candidate for the presidency in 2028, but actually she will in order to raise money and for all sorts of other practical reasons about name recognition, about the need to change her image in various. I think she'll start to run early if she is serious. And it seems to me that she is serious.

[Sarah]

A pretty good one.

[Anthony]

Ooh, that's a good one. Yeah, yeah. I mean, that's certainly the scenario, right? If things go south for Donald Trump, if things really bottom out, the economy goes bad, Democrats really pick up a lot, then there's a lane that opens up. Not necessarily for old school Republicans. I mean, Mitt Romney's not coming back through the door again to rekindle that old establishment Republican wing of the party. But someone would come out who is not Donald Trump and has some distance between themselves and Trump. So, yeah, I like that. That's a good prediction. All right, I'm gonna make one here that is not midterm related. It's gonna be about Donald Trump's top advisors, the big three in his cabinet, which is State Department, Department of Justice or the Treasury. And I think sometime this next year in 2026, there's going to be a vacancy. You're going to see someone either get fired or resigned, and Donald Trump is going to have to try to find a new person to replace that. So Pam Bondi out as Attorney General, Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State, Scott Besant out at treasury, and if I had to pick one, I might say it's Treasury. He seems besent, seems pretty secure right now. But if the economy doesn't do well, he might become the scapegoat and Donald Trump could be looking for a new replacement.

[Sarah]

I agree with you, Anthony. There's every possibility he will need to replace one of the big cabinet positions. But why pick those three and not Pete Hegseth at Defence, who does see, keeps getting himself in trouble. And albeit in the last few weeks, he's avoided censure or too harsh criticism for some of the things he's done. But he is a bit of a loose cannon, isn't he? Increasingly obvious how much the military themselves dislike him.

[Anthony]

Yeah, I could see him go as well. I don't consider Defense quite on a par with the other three cabinet positions, so I wanted to try to limit it a little bit. But I wouldn't be surprised if he also ends up in trouble. I think the big concern is something goes really bad with foreign policy, right? Something that hurts Rubio or these military strikes turn into some sort of a catastrophe. And then that's when Hegseth could end up on the chopping block. Because on one hand, yes, he has turned a lot of the Defense Department against him. A lot of military, senior military officers don't like him. On the other hand, it seems like he still has Donald Trump support. And only when Donald Trump turns on you are you in real trouble in this administration.

[Mariana]

Okay, so my first prediction kind of connects to Anthony, which is that I think that RFK Jr. Is going to find himself in quite a lot of trouble this year. People of America will start to feel the impact of some of the decisions that he has made around issues like vaccinations and the committees and everything else. The way he's handling outbreaks of measles or whooping cough or other diseases. Some of the advice that was issued around Tylenol and pregnant women. If I think if there are. It's a bit of that drip, drip, drip effect. But I think if there are several more announcements that are kind of like that, which appear to be contrary to quite a lot of the scientific and medical advice. And then also communities actually start to feel the impact of this. Like, people are actually really unwell. They do realize that this has consequences. I think that he could fall out of favor. And I think if he does, Donald Trump wouldn't be scared of getting rid of him. But I think people might start to feel the consequences of that as the. As the public more generally.

[Justin]

I completely agree with you because I think one of the things about Donald Trump is that he does have this uncanny ability. I mean, maybe he's lost it now, but if he has still got any political canniness left, he does have this ability to go back into. He'll take an extreme position and you think of a.

[Mariana]

And then he'll say, oh, actually, you.

[Justin]

Know, actually, you know, that's opener. I'm no longer interested all sorts of things.

[Mariana]

Second prediction, which is just an obvious one, but I feel like I should. I think him and Elon Musk actually fall out this year properly. Not like a fallout and be friends again.

[Justin]

You can't have them falling out again.

[Mariana]

No, but they like for real fallout. And I also think that the for real falling out means that Elon Musk takes the alternative social media world with him and Rogan find. Because they've all been teetering on the edge of saying, actually I'm not sure about Donald Trump anymore, particularly around issues like Epstein. I think that he could find himself in a bit of trouble there.

[Justin]

What about the wider idea of whether Trump stays in with the oligarchs, with the, with the tech, the Broncos, or, or whether there is a sufficient effort in MAGA among those who are always suspicious about them, always wanted.

[Mariana]

This would have been my third prediction, but I feel like I make a.

[Justin]

Third one, what the heck.

[Mariana]

But my third one would have been that actually this like lovey dovey relationship with particularly the social media companies ends this year. While Donald Trump is a keen advocate for freedom of expression and everything else, there has been a shift within, I think the Republican Party since Charlie Kirk was killed around that issue. I think people feel more strongly about the risk of really hateful language or abuse or all that kind of thing. And that is at odds with what the tech companies now kind of say they're doing to deal with those issues. Added to the fact that I think there is a general and across the world, not just in America, but awakening of everyone about the impact of social media on kids and teenagers. And I think if Donald Trump can seem to be the person sticking up for like kids and teenagers against the big tech companies who now become the baddies, that might not be an unuseful narrative to him at some point.

[Justin]

The protecting community side of maga, Anthony, we sometimes maybe don't talk enough about, but it is serious and there are serious people who think that it should be all about protecting local communities who want to be able to live decent lives in their localities without being kind of impinged upon. But actually it's a wider thing than that, isn't it?

[Anthony]

Right. People like Josh Hawley, the senator from Missouri, have been very outspoken in their criticisms of social media and kind of the corrupting influence, the toxic influence that has on American children. And I think Donald Trump would have picked up on something like that in earlier years when he was very much in touch with his base and he was out there doing rallies and he was thinking about elections to come where he needed to try to find a way of getting out in front of his base. I'm not so sure that's where Donald Trump is anymore. Now he's in such a cocoon in the White House and he's surrounded by the wealthy and the influential. He has all of these tech leaders come over and they have their Rose Garden dinner parties and at some point maybe they'll have ballroom dinner parties as well. He's not thinking about elections to come, standing for elections to come. I think it's gonna be a lot harder for things like that to break through Trump's bubble to the point where he says he needs to shift positions on this, away from rubbing elbows with the rich and powerful, which clearly he likes to do also.

[Mariana]

Okay, that's my least likely prediction.

[Justin]

Okay. You've had thousands of predictions, Sarah. Sarah, have you got one?

[Sarah]

Well, I could copy Mariana and just go back to last year's and say that Donald Trump's going to win the Nobel Peace Prize, but I'm going to move on. I'm going to predict a constitutional crisis. Do you remember we spent, like, the first three months of 2025 waiting for this constitutional crisis to come along. I'd forgotten all about where we thought the Supreme Court would step in, tell Donald Trump he couldn't do something, and then we would see whether or not who. Who wins the battle between that, between the Supreme Court and the. The president, how does it play out in a way that never been seen before? There is a case we know will be heard by the Supreme Court next year. They will have to decide whether or not Donald Trump's tariffs are legal. Does he have the power to introduce tariffs, or is it something that Congress should have voted on? There will also be a case about birthright citizenship, but that's less likely, I think, to come to a head. If the Supreme Court sells Donald Trump his tariffs are illegal, he has to remove them, and he has to repay the money that people have already handed over. He's not going to comply with that. And we're going to see him facing off against the Supreme Court in a fascinating way. And, Anthony, I seem to remember you had all kinds of statute and things you used to quote to us when we thought that this was going to happen in 2025. So I would say dust it off.

[Anthony]

Yeah. If you listen to the oral arguments that were held in this case, it seems like there is a comfortable majority on the Supreme Court that thinks that Donald Trump overstepped his powers putting these tariffs into effect. Now, whether they also say he has to pay all of them back, that the treasury has to pay all of them back, that was the big kind of can of worms that the justices were a little more squeamish about digging into. So watch really closely when this case gets decided. And we could hear even in January when a decision might come down because they were doing it under an accelerated time schedule, look and see whether they say, also, you have to pay all this back, because that is a huge bite. I will say what Trump may not just say, no, I'm not following this decision. I'M going to keep tariffs under this law on the books. What they may do, and I think they're already planning on doing, is they're going to find other laws, other means of putting these tariffs on and just transfer them all over to some other legal justification and then wait to see if anyone sues them for that. And then you start the court challenges all over again and we're back to square one. So it might not be as clean a break as I think some people might be expecting. And certainly the companies that are paying these tariffs and taking the hit for it, these small businesses that rely on imports that they're hoping for.

[Sarah]

Yeah, but it's smarter, isn't it, if you're making a time capsule prediction to just call it a constitutional crisis than a 50 will. However, if it's we're getting good at, if the scenario you describe, Anthony, comes to pass, I'm gonna call that half a win.

[Anthony]

Yeah. Okay. I think so.

[Justin]

Are you saying, though, that the Supreme Court is or is not going to stand up to Donald Trump? Because that's the question that we get asked a lot. In fact, we ought to do an entire episode on the Supreme Court, and I think we're going to quite soon. But is this Supreme Court capable of interested in standing up to Donald Trump in the next year, this crucial year, or not?

[Sarah]

This is the case where they might do it.

[Anthony]

Yeah. I think that there are cases where they're going to start drawing lines. I mean, we talked about constitutional crises, and part of the reasons why we didn't get a constitutional crisis this year is because the Supreme Court generally sided with Donald Trump time and time again. We got very few cases where they handed down a decision that he didn't like. So I think we're going to get some decisions he doesn't like, and I think we're going to get him on this terrorist case. I think we might get it on birthright citizenship, although we might that might take a little longer to get to. But ones that are presidential powers, such as his ability to fire people, fire the Fed board, members of the Fed board, fire independent agency heads. I think the court is going to go with him on that. So there are going to be some line drawing, but it's going to be, again, a mixed bag because the Supreme Court likes Donald Trump and they seem to like presidential power.

[Justin]

Okay, that's it. We will meet again in a year's time, hopefully with everyone listening now and millions more as well. And we will.

[Mariana]

Trillions.

[Justin]

Trillions. Yes, we will. We'll uncover the time capsule or do whatever you do to time capsules, dig it up, whatever and we will see how right we were and how wrong and to what extent Elon Musk has re fallen out with Donald Trump, etc. That's it. Bye bye.

[Anthony]

Bye bye.

[Justin]

Thank you for listening to another episode. It is you, the Ameracaster that makes AmeriCast the community that it now is. If you like what you've heard, please do subscribe to this podcast on BBC Sounds or wherever you get your podcasts. We always want to hear your feedback as well. We look at every single bit of correspondence that we get so you can send us an email. AmericaSTBC.co.uk the WhatsApp is 443-301-239480 and you can get involved in the AmericaST Discord server. The link to that is in the description. Till next time, Bye bye.

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