Americast (BBC) — "What will be the biggest US stories of 2026?"

Release Date: December 31, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Smith, Justin Webb, Marianna Spring, Anthony Zurcher
Episode Theme Overview:
The Americast team returns for their annual “time capsule” episode, forecasting the most significant US stories and political developments they expect in 2026. Recorded at the tail end of 2025, this episode centers on predictions for the 2026 midterms, the fate of Trump’s administration, key cabinet shakeups, the continuing politicization of social and cultural events like the 2026 World Cup, and potential constitutional crises. Each host contributes their boldest prediction, discussing the stakes and uncertainties that shape the American landscape for the year ahead, all in their characteristically lively and incisive style.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Predictions for the 2026 Midterms and Their Impact on Trump

Timestamps: 02:27–07:49

• Anthony Zurcher forecasts a “Democratic wave election,” with Democrats likely to retake the House of Representatives based on special elections in 2025, where Democrats outperformed their 2024 results by an average of 13%. He adds, “while the Democrats won’t flip the four seats they need to take control of the Senate, they are going to win a seat that we’re not expecting... Texas, Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. I think the Democrats will win at least one.” (03:23)
• Sarah Smith cautions that economic performance could still swing things: “If Donald Trump is able to set the economy on a better course, if prices are in a better place in November 2026 than they were in 2025, all of that could change.” (03:56)
• The panel discusses how economic sentiment, particularly inflation and wages, will drive voter behavior. Justin captures the stakes: “I just can’t imagine the bloodletting in that circumstance,” if the Democrats don't flip the House after two years of Trump. (04:33)
• Mariana Spring quips on the economy, “It’s all about the eggs in the end, Anthony.” (05:38) Anthony: “The eggs are actually pretty good right now. Eggs are cheap. It’s beef and some other consumer electricity.” (05:43)
• Discussion on Hispanic support for Trump turning “flaky,” likely tied to cost-of-living concerns.

2. The Texas Senate Race and Democratic Momentum

Timestamps: 06:17–07:49

• Anthony outlines the Texas Senate race, noting several Democratic contenders including evangelical centrist Talarico and outspoken liberal Jasmine Crockett, who previously sparred with Marjorie Taylor Greene: “She is a very much outspoken liberal…got into that kind of shouting match…saying that she was a bleach blonde dye job.” (07:12)

3. US Military Actions in Venezuela and Beyond

Timestamps: 07:49–09:53

• Listener Mary asks if strikes on Venezuelan drug boats will continue or expand to land.
• Sarah predicts escalation: “I think he currently believes that with some targeted land strike and some other actions, he can topple the Maduro regime.” (08:01)
• Anthony expresses surprise there haven’t been land strikes yet, questioning what’s holding Trump back.
• Sarah foresees Trump seeking to tackle fentanyl in Mexico after Venezuela: “He’s then going to want to tackle the real source of fentanyl…some kind of military action to try and force the Mexican government to stop the flow.” (09:01)

4. The 2026 World Cup: Politics and Controversy

Timestamps: 09:53–11:25

• Mariana and Justin agree the World Cup will proceed but be riddled with logistical and political drama.
• Sarah: “It’s going to happen. It’ll be heavily politicized because Donald Trump’s involved… threatening to move games away from Democrat run cities…immigration officers checking people’s status as they’re going in and out of matches which would cause a huge fuss.” (10:37)
• Anthony: “This is what Donald Trump the showman likes to do… he is good at kind of soaking up the attention and being able to kind of direct things from above the way he did with his reality television show The Apprentice.” (11:05)

5. The Republican Party’s Future: Who Succeeds Trump?

Timestamps: 11:25–15:49

• Listener Brenda inquires about Republican frontrunners and “bending the knee” to Trump.
• Anthony: “J.D. Vance is the heir apparent. He seems to be the one who is best positioned to pick up the torch from Donald Trump. Although Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, has done a remarkable job… You could even see Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. decide to run as an outsider…” (11:49)
• Trump reportedly suggested his successor is “probably sitting at this table” at his Cabinet—indicating loyalty and proximity matter most.
• Sarah: “It will be somebody who Trump anoints essentially, or at least is not opposed to. You’re not going to win this nomination by running against Donald Trump.” (13:21)
• Discussion of “influencers” as potential candidates: speculation around Tucker Carlson, Joe Rogan, even the late Charlie Kirk (“he was assassinated…not an option.”) and discussion of media figures like Megyn Kelly angling for MAGA support.

6. Time Capsule Predictions – The Panel’s 2026 Forecasts

Timestamps: 15:49–25:04

• Justin: Predicts after (probable) loss of House & Senate in 2026, Marjorie Taylor Greene will announce early for the 2028 Republican nomination. “She will be a surprisingly serious candidate. And the war that we’ve kind of been talking about within MAGA will open up into something much, much bigger.” (16:07)
• Anthony: Predicts a major cabinet shakeup: “Donald Trump is going to have to try to find a new person to replace [one of the big three]…if the economy doesn’t do well, [Treasury Secretary] may become the scapegoat…” (17:17)
• Sarah suggests Defense Secretary (Pete Hegseth) might be more vulnerable because “it is a bit of a loose cannon…obvious how much the military themselves dislike him.” (18:22)
• Mariana: Predicts RFK Jr. will “find himself in quite a lot of trouble this year” over controversial health policy decisions. “If there are several more announcements…which appear contrary to scientific advice, and then also communities actually start to feel the impact…people are actually really unwell…he could fall out of favor.” (19:26)
  • She also forecasts a “real falling out” between Trump and Elon Musk, with Musk and Rogan taking the alternative social media world with them.
  • Third, she senses a cooling of MAGA’s relationship with big tech/social platforms—potentially driven by growing concern about social media’s effects on children.
• Sarah: Envisions a Constitutional Crisis: “If the Supreme Court tells Donald Trump his tariffs are illegal…he’s not going to comply with that. And we’re going to see him facing off against the Supreme Court in a fascinating way.” (24:00)

7. Will the Supreme Court Stand Up to Trump?

Timestamps: 26:42–27:58

• Justin: “Is this Supreme Court capable of…standing up to Donald Trump in the next year, this crucial year, or not?”
• Sarah: “This is the case where they might do it.”
• Anthony: “There are cases where they’re going to start drawing lines… we talked about constitutional crises, and part of the reasons why we didn’t get a constitutional crisis this year is because the Supreme Court generally sided with Donald Trump time and time again…So I think we’re going to get some decisions he doesn’t like…a mixed bag, because the Supreme Court likes Donald Trump and they seem to like presidential power.” (27:04)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Anthony Zurcher, on the 2026 midterms:
  “This is looking more and more, if you look out over the past year, like a Democratic wave election…the Democrats have improved their standing over 2024 by an average of 13%.” (02:51)
• Sarah Smith, on Trump’s fortunes:
  “If people feel better off in November next year than they did in November this year…then I think actually the midterms will go much better for him.” (03:56)
• Mariana Spring:
  “It’s all about the eggs in the end, Anthony.” (05:38)
• Sarah Smith, World Cup spectacle:
  “It’ll be heavily politicized because Donald Trump’s involved… threatening to try and move games away from Democrat run cities.” (10:37)
• Anthony Zurcher, on Trump’s successor:
  “If someone tries to cross Trump…the base won’t be happy. Two, Donald Trump won’t be happy. And if Donald Trump’s not happy, he could make life very difficult…Just ask…Mike Pence.” (11:49)
• Mariana Spring, the Musk split:
  “Him and Elon Musk actually fall out this year properly. Not like a fallout and be friends again—but, like, for real fallout.” (20:35)
• Sarah Smith, Constitutional crisis prediction:
  “If the Supreme Court tells Donald Trump his tariffs are illegal…he’s not going to comply with that. And we’re going to see him facing off against the Supreme Court in a fascinating way.” (24:00)

Key Timestamps for Reference

• 02:27 — Listeners’ questions and predictions for the midterms
• 07:49 — Venezuela & military escalation
• 09:53 — 2026 World Cup drama
• 11:25 — Republican succession and “bend the knee”
• 15:49 — Time Capsule predictions
• 24:00 — Sarah’s constitutional crisis scenario
• 27:04 — Supreme Court’s likely stance towards Trump in 2026

Tone & Style

The episode maintains Americast’s usual balance of analytical rigor and lively, informal banter. The hosts challenge one another’s predictions, readily admit when issues are uncertain, and inject humor — even in discussing serious risks like constitutional crises or party infighting. Listener questions are woven throughout, making listeners feel like co-contributors. The tone is thoughtful but nimble, offering plausible scenarios alongside some sharp asides and memorable one-liners.

In Summary

This Americast “time capsule” episode stands as a punchy, insightful forecast of America’s likely political and cultural flashpoints in 2026: midterm elections, possible foreign policy adventures, the Republican succession scramble, and looming constitutional showdowns. It’s a blueprint for a tumultuous year, brimming with political risks—as well as the Americast team’s trademark blend of wise and witty commentary.