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Why the Democrats may never be the same again
00:35:01
Abdul El-Sayed’s left-wing victory in Michigan has sent shock waves through the party.
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- [00:00]
Justin Webb
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- [00:06]
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- [00:54]
Justin Webb
The Democratic Party has taken a big step, a step that could mean it is never the same again. First there was Zoran Mandani, hugely popular progressive candidate who won the race to become the mayor of New York. And now in the crucial state of Michigan, they have chosen another progressive candidate, Abdul El Sayed, winning the nomination to take on the Republicans in November for the Senate seat. He's already been labeled the most radical candidate ever. Ever. This could be the race that shapes the entire future of the party and its direction in the post Trump era. Welcome to AmericasT.
- [01:32]
Podcast Advertiser
AmericasT, AmericasT from BBC News.
- [01:36]
Donald Trump
You hear that sound? Oh, I think when I hear that sound it reminds me of money.
- [01:41]
Abdul El Sayed
We didn't start this war, but under President Trump we are finishing it.
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Mike Murphy
This is a big cover up and this administration is engaged in it.
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Sarah
This guy has Trump derangement syndrome.
- [01:51]
Abdul El Sayed
I have four words. Turn the volume up.
- [02:00]
Sarah
Hello, it's Sarah here in the BBC's
- [02:02]
Justin Webb
bureau in Washington and it's just in the worldwide headquarters of AmericasT in London, England at the time is half past three in the afternoon here in London and there is news to bring you. Actually the big news first of all is that we got Mike Murphy in this episode. So Mike Murphy, the veteran Republican strategist, he's worked for everyone from Arnold Schwarzenegger to Mitt Romney. He is no friend of Donald Trump, but he is, I think he calls himself an independent conservative now. Anyway, Mike Murphy, who knows an awful lot about how to win elections, is going to come on and talk to us about Sarah, this news that we have just had and that we teed up in a previous episode rather nicely because we've got an actual result now in the state of Michigan and it is a big one.
- [02:47]
Sarah
Yeah, in the Democratic primary for the Senate seat there in Michigan, Abdul El Said, who is a left wing progressive candidate, beat the establishment candidate Haley Stevens and served. So he's the one who's going to be on the ballot for the Senate in Michigan. And this is important for a number of reasons, Justin, isn't it? Which is that it's a big victory for the left, for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, not their first this year. It's part of a swing, it would seem, in some parts of the country towards the progressive left, but it is the first time it's happened in a key swing state. So it's one thing for progressives to be winning primaries in states like New York. It's quite another in Michigan somewhere where they would need to win the Senate seat in the midterms to take control of the Senate, but also they need to win it in 2028 to take the presidential election. So what happens in states like Michigan really, really matters. And the question now is how winnable is it with candidates like El Said and can they bring the Democratic Party together behind his campaign? Have a listen to what he said just after he won the primary this week.
- [03:52]
Abdul El Sayed
But right now, as bitter and as divisive and as cynical as the campaign against us might have been, I want us to realize that there is so much more that unites us now because the campaign that Mike Rogers and Donald Trump and their GOP MAGA allies are launching is already more bitter. All you got to do is look at the ads you're already watching on TV started today. You know, they think that you want to use my whole name against me. Mike, listen, man, if you can't say
- [04:24]
the name, it's Abd Al Rahman.
- [04:25]
Keep the name out your damn mouth. I'll be happy to give you lessons. But they understand that the only way that they think they can win is to drag us into the mud, to believe the worst about each other, to believe that what divides us is bigger than what unites us. They want us to think that the reason some of us ain't got is because of other people got. But it turns out that the reason so many of us ain't got is because of the system that has corrupted our politics to take it away from us.
- [04:59]
Justin Webb
The thing that really strikes me about him is he sounds actually, doesn't he, like Zoran Mandani in a way. He's got that sort of real aggressive, tub thumping but easy style that Mandani has that was so successful for him. And I suppose the question then is whether that style, that style has got him over the edge here. It's won him the primary. But whether that style, that aggressive style is going to be something that appeals to the whole state.
- [05:27]
Sarah
Yeah. And there what he's talking about is the way in which Republicans are already campaigning against him. He often cites potential Islamophobia in people who are arguing against him and also that he's being mischaracterized in some ways by Republicans and he knows that they are going to throw everything they have got at him. The kitchen sink will be flung at Abdul, Al said in this campaign, not just in Michigan, but Republicans will use him nationwide as a bogeyman for what they will say Democrats represent across the country. So I mean, he's right that it is going to be a pretty difficult and bitter campaign where people will try and drag him into the mud. The question is whether it's something that can then energize the Democratic base as a result of all of that or whether it's going to turn voters off. And that's something we don't know the answer to yet, but something we can definitely start are exploring by looking at him as a candidate where he's come from. And you know a bit about this as well just now I know you were talking to our colleague Sumi on the podcast last week about the possibility of Al Said winning here. That's a very, very interesting listen if anybody wants to go back and listen to that as well, where you made it clear that he's a former public health official, child of Egyptian immigrants who has come up through the left of the party but is not a member of the Democratic Socialist Alliance. We've got other DSA backed candidates across the country. He is not one of them and he doesn't even call himself a socialist, although he does espouse some pretty left wing ideas.
- [06:50]
Justin Webb
Yeah. So on that it may be important. I mean it sounds as if we're just splitting hairs, but it may be important because as we also touched on in that episode with Sumi, the DSA has some policies that are in American terms quite out there, quite far to the left, including getting rid of the Senate, which is where he's trying to go. So there is an important distinction that he makes between the DSA and him. But as you say, the DSA has backed him and he's very much got the support and the support of the kind of people who in other places like New York would back the dsa. So it's really, I mean, is it fair to say it's Medicare for all that is the big thing. So healthcare for everyone. It's never quite clear to me, I've heard him talk about this a few times. Never quite clear to me whether that means getting rid of private healthcare provision in the us, private healthcare insurance. Because that of course is always the kind of stumbling block, isn't it, where people on the left talk about health care for all. People say, well I don't want to go into a system like Canada or Britain where you have a single payer system and I can't keep my own health insurance that I'm perfectly happy with. And you know, questions like that are going to be the ones that he's going to face now, isn't he?
- [08:04]
Sarah
It has to be said across the country the idea of Medicare for all isn't universally unpopular at all. It depends on how you describe you want to implement it. And he's talking about significantly increased tax on the wealthiest, specifically on billionaires, really dramatic campaign finance reform. What he's not talking about is what a lot of Americans will imagine as soon as you hear the word socialism. Because you know this very well Justin, it's kind of synonymous with communism in America in a way. It's not necessarily in Europe. It doesn't just mean left of center here it means pretty much seizing the means of production and nationalizing them, having a government run economy rather than just talking about, about things like providing healthcare for all. So that label is very dangerous in itself when it's attached to people either like Al said or the DSA because it conjures up quite frightening ideas of reds under the bed for a lot of American voters.
- [08:58]
Justin Webb
So the victory matters because. Well, for two reasons really I suppose. First, because it's the biggest victory for the progressive wing of the party. We talked a lot about New York and New York was obviously a huge victory for them. But this is a state and also it's the kind of state it is. So it Midwestern, it's a swing state and that really matters. They're now testing themselves, the left of the party, the progressive left, testing themselves in this state. The other really significant thing though, Sarah, it's worth mentioning, isn't it? He only just won and he'd been expected to have quite a blowout, hadn't he? A lot of the polls, including his own polls that he publicized before the election seemed to suggest that he was going to win easily. And I just wonder how he copes now with that fact that he did almost lose. This wasn't a blowout.
- [09:48]
Sarah
No. And the polling had been suggesting he was something like 10 points ahead. The same polling which, by the way, when it matched up Haley Stevens, his more moderate competitor, and him against the Republican candidate, showed Stevens winning in November. Al said not. But nonetheless, he won the primary, but only just as you say. Now, the theory of the case from the progressive wing of the party is that America is hungry for ideas that the Democratic Party hasn't been supplying them yet, and that you need to get rid of this notion of a continuum of politics from right to left, and that you can place everybody along that straight line somewhere or other. And that we need to look at post Donald Trump politics completely differently as a competition between elites and regular folk, between haves and have nots, and the way in which economic questions of the last few decades haven't been answered in a way that works for the working class of America. And so the progressives say they can appeal pretty much to the same people who came out and voted for Donald Trump in the last three elections because they want to address the same issues that these people have in their lives. That's quite a persuasive case in some ways, but not if you look at the evidence of what happened with the voting on the ground in Michigan. El Said won among young voters, particularly well educated voters, Muslim voters. Where he didn't particularly take votes and where Hayley Stevens won much bigger was among black voters, white working class, white voters in rural areas and older voters. And if you're not picking up those kind of people, particularly black and working class voters, then I think it's extremely difficult to say you are somehow putting forward a progressive slate that will appeal to people who maybe voted Trump in 2024 but could be persuaded to vote Democrat in 2028.
- [11:31]
Justin Webb
The education difference, Sarah, is fascinating, isn't it? Because it's something we've seen before, but it seems to be becoming increasingly accentuated in the U.S. you remember Trump saying we love the uneducated voters. We love people who haven't been to college, et cetera, et cetera, and really making a thing about it and speaking directly to them that this now has become, hasn't it, a real divide within the Democratic Party but also within wider American politics. If you are on the progressive left, you are increasingly likely to be someone who is very well educated, with either a full college degree and possibly a master's degree as well. If you're not that way inclined within the Democratic Party and more widely within the US you're more likely to have finished school and nothing more. And that divide is huge now, isn't it and just wasn't the case, I don't know, 20, 30, 40 years ago.
- [12:31]
Sarah
No, it's the biggest divide in American politics now. It's the biggest predictor of whether you're going to vote Republican or Democrat is whether or not you hold a college degree, whether or not you finished high school. And I think that does speak to the idea that politics isn't the same as it used to be and simply a choice between left and right.
- [12:49]
Justin Webb
Let's hear from Mike Rogers. So the Republican candidate who was mentioned in that clip we heard from Abdul Al Said, mentioned as being someone who wants to stick him into a certain box and put him there. Let's get a flavor of what the Mike Rogers line is going to be, because where Abdullah Said wants to talk about healthcare, it is fair to say, isn't it, that Mike Rogers wants to talk about other things? Let's listen.
- [13:16]
Mike Rogers
I have never seen someone so radical, so extreme get nominated by a political party. And the DSA candidates in the state in two different congressional races look like they're pulling it off as well. The Democrat Party is lost to this hardcore socialist attitude. And listen, I fought terrorism my whole life. I was an FBI special agent, US army officer, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. I find it shocking that I'm going to go up against a guy who believes America deserved 9 11. That's why this race is so important.
- [13:50]
Sarah
Lawrence Justin, the first thing we must say about that is that Abdel Al Said has not said that America deserved 9 11. That was a comment that was made by Mhasan Piker, a streamer influencer associated with the left who Al Said has campaigned alongside. So that's why Mike Rogers is drawing that comparison between the two of them. But he is putting words in Al Said's mouth there. But it does show you the way in which the right is going to attack not just this candidate with his past associations with more radical people, but the way in which the right's generally going to use this playbook against these kind of candidates.
- [14:24]
Justin Webb
And there is no doubt at all, isn't there, Sarah, that this is what the Republicans feel is a potential vulnerability of El Sayed when it comes to the general election election, when it comes to having to appeal to Michiganders right across the board, including Michiganders who are still keen on the state of Israel, Indeed, Michiganders who are themselves Jewish, who want this candidate to be a more moderate one than he has seemed to be, and certainly not someone who pals around with Hassan Piker. And it's really interesting, isn't it, that a lot of the campaign already, and we're only hours into it already, the campaign is focusing on his views on Israel and indeed his views more generally. Donald Trump really went for him on Israel when he had a rally recently, a day or two ago in Las Vegas. Let's listen to that.
- [15:15]
Donald Trump
Abdul El Sayed, you believe this? This could only happen to me. Abdul El Sayad, lovely gentleman. He's a man of hate. And now he's going around saying, no, I love everybody. I love. He doesn't love everybody. Put him in office. You're going to find out what he loves. He doesn't love Israel. He doesn't love Jewish people. He hates them. He hates him with a passion that burns in his heart and there's not a freaking thing he can do about it. There's not a thing he can do about it because he hates it.
- [15:52]
Sarah
Now, he's never said he hates Jews or Israel for that matter. But leaving aside that he was accused of blaming a lot of America's ills on Jews by Haley Stevenson, his competitor in the primary race, this is going to come up a lot because Israel was a big question in this race and it will be in all the Democratic primaries. I think this is the big fault line now that runs through the Democratic Party. And they're going to have to work out a new position on this, I think, because they're pretty split between older party members and voters who continue to support the state of Israel, which was always the party's position and used to largely be America's position, and younger activists who are very, very opposed to certainly the current leadership in Israel and its policy in the Middle east, particularly towards Gaza. And I mean, I know you've recognized this as well, just in the way it's coming up. It's a litmus test in the Democratic Party now for a lot of people. If you are not prepared to use the G word, if you're not prepared to say that Israel committed genocide in Gaza, then there's a large swathe of the party will not support you in a primary and might even turn away from you in the midterm elections or even a presidential election, especially in Michigan, a state where I spoke to people during the 2024 presidential election, really committed Democrat activists who said they would not vote for Kamala Harris because she wouldn't criticize Joe Biden's Israel policy and is close with Benjamin Netanyahu. They were furious with Harris and they think it was her refusal to carve out a different policy towards Israel that cost her the presidential election. Now it might have cost her Michigan, it didn't cost her the whole presidential election because she lost seven swing states. But there are people very, very convinced about that in the party and they are going to want to test every potential candidate as to where they stand on Israel and judge them on it. And so I think this is going to become a bigger and bigger issue actually in Democratic politics. It's not going to disappear in the re view window.
- [17:50]
Justin Webb
Yeah. And it's also hellishly complex because on the one hand there are plenty of Democrats, in fact, I'd probably say most Democrats would be absolutely clear that they do not like the current Israeli government. They do not like Benjamin Netanyahu, the, the prime minister. They'd be quite clear about that, quite open about that. But then it gets difficult. So how much funding should there be for weapons for Israel? How much funding this should there be for other things for Israel? And that is a question that splits the Democrats. But still those Democrats who would say fundamentally, well, we think Israel has a right to exist as the Jewish state. But then a further complication. What about those Democrats who do not think that Israel has a right to exist? It's interesting, isn't it Sarah, that Al said, although plainly doesn't hate Jews and I don't think anyone would seriously make that charge against him. What is his view of the right of Israel to exist? And I have never heard him be absolutely plain that he thinks Israel has the right to exist in secure borders as the Jewish state. And that it seems to me is a potential difficulty not just for Jewish voters but also more widely actually for Americans who sort of cleave to the general view that although Israel has done awful things, they would say that actually the state ought to remain there.
- [19:13]
Sarah
That's probably still the majority view, Jessica. But don't underestimate the way in which Americans view towards Israel have changed quite dramatically in the last couple. And if you look at polling, you'll see that for the first time a majority of Americans, about 60% don't think that the US should automatically support Israel in whatever it does. If you ask if they have a more favorable view of the Israelis or the Palestinians, you'll see for the first time since Pauling was asking this question in the last 25 years or so, you see a majority saying that they've got more sympathy towards the Palestinians. There's been quite a significant shift in public opinion actually and that kind of knee jerk support that there used to be on the Left and the right for Israel in America is changing quite significantly. But Abdul Al said, as you say, Justin has to clarify his position of exactly where he stands. And he was asked about American support for Israel in an interview he did with CNN with Kaitlan Collins, just after he won the primary this week.
- [20:08]
Abdul El Sayed
I'm opposed to unconditional military aid for any country that is Israel, yes, but that's also Egypt, where my family immigrated from. That's Pakistan, that's Saudi Arabia, that's uae. And that's not because of a focus on what's happening anywhere except for a focus what's happening here. I don't want to fund a foreign military that does genocide, apartheid, or has taken us to a war we don't need to fight. I believe in equal rights to peace, dignity and self determination for Jewish, Israelis and Palestinians alike. I believe our responsibility though more than anything else is to use our tax money here in Michigan to provide health care in Michigan, in schools in Michigan and roads in Michigan, rather than to send it to a foreign government that might use it in the form of bombs and tanks. I think it's important that all of us feel safe and Jewish safety to me is a priority, just like the safety of my own daughters. But I do think it's important for us to differentiate between safety and between our different political positions about the interests of a foreign government. And I do think that it's unfortunate when people mix those issues. Jews, I've been very, very Jewish people and Judaism are a light unto the world. I'm deeply grateful for them. And I will always stand with the Jewish people against any anti Semitism in any type. Just like I understand the experience of being discriminated against for how I pray. I don't want anybody discriminated against for how they pray.
- [21:26]
Sarah
I think what was really interesting listening to him also there though was as he's talking about not wanting to provide unconditional military aid for any country. And that's sparked obviously by the money that the US gives to Israel. You do get echoes of no more forever wars and the kind of America first policy talking about not wanting to get embroiled in other people's conflicts around the world, wanting to save the money and attention to deal with the domestic situation, to put your funding into education and healthcare rather than sending it to foreign governments. And I think that is one way in which actually it's really interesting to watch the left and the right coming together on something that wasn't being talked about much 10 years ago or so, but is actually becoming a more prevalent idea in American politics.
- [22:12]
Justin Webb
Righty ho. That is a perfect moment, Sarah, in which we can turn to Mike Murphy, because Mike Murphy is joining us now on the line. The great Mike Murphy, who has been such a leader in the Republican Party, the former Republican Party, the Mitt Romney party, the John McCain party, the Arnold Schwarzenegger Party as well. He is no fan of Donald Trump, it is fair to say. He's also the co host of Hacks on Tap, which is this fantastic, fantastic US Podcast. If you can't get enough America with us, you should certainly go there to get it. So, Mike, it's a real pleasure to talk to you. Thanks for joining us.
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Mike Murphy
Oh, thank you. I'm happy to be here. Good to see you guys.
- [22:48]
Justin Webb
Now, can I start by asking you this, we've been discussing, Sarah and I, this victory for Abdel Al Said. And it's obviously a very big deal. There's no question about that. But there are obviously dangers there as, as well. How do you see it? How do you place it in terms of the kind of balance between, whoa, big deal, this is going somewhere and could be greatly successful for the Democrats and whoa, hang on a second. This could be a mistake.
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Mike Murphy
I'm more of the woo, hang on a second model because, you know, I'm an independent voter now, but I'm still a conservative. Ideologically, I'm not in love with the progressive left, but I want the Republicans under Trump, kind of the dictatorship of Trump right now, to have less power. So I want Democrats to win elections. I'm hoping we get back to a world where I can go back and start beating Democrats again. But in the, the present crisis, got to get rid of Trump and the lockstep Republicans behind him. So why take a risk in a critical control of the Senate race like Michigan? Now, I know Abdul. I'm friendly with him. I think he's an impressive guy, but ideologically I can't support him. And I'm worried that he'll be less effective as a candidate and Mike Rogers might win the Republican candidate. And here's why the election wants to be in these swing states. A negative RA referendum on Trump, basically about the economy and some of the family corruption that is the natural order of things right now. But when the Democrats nominate a controversial candidate, they give the Republicans something to talk about other than Trump and move the focus of the election away from, well, we got to change what's going on in Washington. We're getting killed economically here. The tariffs, everything else. Two, wait a minute. This guy Wants to blow up Israel, defund the police, you know, seize the means of production so they give the Republican something to work with. And I would say, why do that?
- [24:43]
Justin Webb
Does the fact that he nearly lost to Stevens, does that fact also then weigh on his ability to win when it comes to it in November?
- [24:52]
Mike Murphy
Yeah, I think it's a live concern. And you know, I'm an old Michigan hack. I grew up in Detroit. I've done five successful statewide Senate and governor, et cetera, and state office campaigns there. When you look at the returns, you know, he got 50 and a half and she got 49 and a half. Where the vote came from, he blew it out in the college towns and with kind of the college educated, white, well educated, luxury opinion liberals and that was enough to barely win. She won the factory town, she won the automotive workers, she won the African Americans in Detroit. So when you look at her vote, they are more culturally conservative and more susceptible, except for the African American vote, which is loyally Democratic. But those UAW voters and the auto plants and the supply plants, they're low hanging fruit for Rogers to peel off him. They're older, more Catholic, more blue collar, more culturally conservative. You know, it's funny, these Bernie candidates and Ploutner was the same in Maine before he blew up. They're always talking about we're going to fight for the working class and then the working class goes out and votes for somebody else else. Will they carry the faculty lounge? And it was the same with El Sayed. He, he did great at the University of Michigan and Isabella county, central Michigan. You know, if you've got two PhDs in aromatherapy, candle making and ancient poetry, you were for him. If you're bending metal for a living on the dodge line, you were for her. You were for Haley Stevens.
- [26:24]
Sarah
Yeah, and Mike, earlier we were talking about how that does tend to suggest that this idea that the Democrats need to get behind a more populous economic message and that that's the way to counter Trumpism rather than with traditional centrist politics is defied by the demographics of how the votes fell in Michigan for El Said. But what you were saying earlier, I know you know that you were characterizing Al Said in the way that Republicans will, because it's not true that he wants to seize the means of production, defund the police or blow up Israel, but that's what Republicans will say about him. How helpful is it to Republicans across the nation fighting these midterms with an unpopular president at their back? All sorts of unpopular hung around their necks. Can they in other states use candidates like El said to demonize the Democrats and help their turnout.
- [27:13]
Mike Murphy
They can try. You hear a lot about Mayor Mondami, who's actually doing a pretty good job on potholes and fixing parking meters. So that may be a little harder. The only person who's not on the ballot who is going to be hugely important in this election is Donald J. Trump. You know, people in the midterm elections want to send a message to the president. They want to talk to whoever's in power. And all the polling debt on Trump is awful. Mostly about the economy. Trump. Trump used to always have shaky poll numbers, but his numbers on able to run the economy were always pretty good. Now they don't think he can run the economy. It's like McDonald's can't make a hamburger. His economic approval rating has gone from about 58 down to 30. It'll all come to how good. And he's good as a candidate. Athlete, El Said, is flipping it back to, hey, you, you know, you can't afford anything anymore. You can't afford the drugs your parents need. I'm going to get everybody health care and I'm going to put money in your pocket. That's a very powerful message. And if he can keep it about that, fire the Republicans, he'll win. The problem is he's wearing a Velcro suit of other stuff that the Republicans will scream. And he is probably, of the major Senate candidates, I think unquestionably the most aggressively progressive of the Bernie wing. They can throw a lot at him. It'll be half truth, but in politics, half true can get you pretty far.
- [28:38]
Sarah
Mike, we've had an email from one of our Amer casters, Noah Pavitt, and he says that on recent shows where there's been lots of discussion about what Democrats need to do to win the upcoming midterm cycle. And obviously that's what we've just been talking about, too. But he says there's been a lot less discussion about what Republicans have to do. And one of the things he wants to know is what influence Donald Trump has on the party electorally, which is very interesting. And I have to ask you, in that context, context, does Donald Trump care whether Republican candidates win in the midterm elections? Because if he does, he's going a very funny way about showing it, because everything he's done in the last few weeks and months would suggest that he actively wants them to lose. He's not helping them in any way.
- [29:16]
Mike Murphy
Yeah, it's a great question and a lot of the Republican senators are asking that because if you're a legislator in the Congress or the senator, you think the White House's number one job is to help you get reelected. It because you want to hold the majority, which is all the power, particularly in the House where the minority party, as you know, has no power at all. They're just watching. In the Senate the minority party has some power, which is why the Democrats don't have to win the Senate. If they can just close the gap, they will significantly increase their power. Not true in the House. So the senators in particular are stunned. I mean, if you go into the cloak room, you'll see a couple of boxes of whiskey that have been shipped in because they're very morose and they're very upset that the White House doesn't appear to give a damn about how any of them are doing. And the great example was the housing bill. They finally got a big. Housing is a huge issue here, particularly in the more urban and suburban areas. Nobody can afford housing. So there was actually rare today a big bipartisan bill to do something about it. And the Republicans could hardly wait to get out and campaign on it to have something other than Donald Trump to talk about. And then Trump wouldn't sign the thing thing. He eventually let it pass without veto. So yeah, there's real fear in the Republican machinery. Is this guy so bananas that he's just given up caring about the team and it's all a one way street. So they're all like hostages now. Trump has a lot of power over their base votes. He doesn't have enough power for anybody in a real competitive place to win. He can get you 45% in a concession speech. So you want him to behave in ways that lets you get that extra 5% to get to 50. And so far he hasn't been doing it. The tariffs are a problem, the war is a problem, price of gasoline is a problem. The perception that he can't run the economy. So yeah, and the morale is incredibly low in the Senate in particular because those guys know right now we got a four vote, you know, lead. Even with four more Republican votes, they've had to bring in Vance as vice president to break ties several times. If the Democrats can close to only be two behind in the Senate, it'll paralyze things on top votes. So yeah, I think you're the listener or the person who sent the question is absolutely right. And this is shocking to Republicans because traditionally the White House is all about helping you get reelected.
- [31:43]
Sarah
There's a Theory going around Washington, as you know all too well, Mike, in this town where everybody's absolutely obsessed with politics, all sorts of theories that do the rounds all the time may or may not be based in reality, but I'd love to get your take on this. People speculate that Donald Trump doesn't really care about whether Republicans have control of Congress, of the House of Representatives or the Senate because he thinks he can govern without them by executive order. What he cares about is having an absolute lock on the Republican Republican Party. And we've seen a medal in primaries, sometimes getting candidates selected, her maybe not the strongest candidate in the midterm elections, but he is sick, fed up of elected Republicans arguing against him in public. He wants to own all of them. And if that means that he doesn't have a majority in the Congress, then so be it.
- [32:29]
Mike Murphy
I think there could be some truth to that. You know, decoding Donald Trump's psychology is a tricky maze. I do think he wants absolute loyalty. I think he has some concern about the Senate because if the Democrats were to win control of both House and the Senate, the legal jeopardy and the investigations he's going to be looking at, he's got some reasons to want defenders, but he's not doing much to create them. So that would lend credence to that theory. You know, it. It's also, he has his kind of personality, need for supplicants and affection. He's the most insecure person I've ever seen in politics. Politics, on the other hand, he does have a certain, you know, you know, I'm a critic, so I'll use rough terminology, feral intelligence for survival. And he, I think the Senate is important to him. But, yeah, having control the party is important. But here, here's the other thing that's going to be a big factor. I think the Democrats are going to win the House by enough votes to be in firm control, probably 8 to 15. And I think they're going to increase their power in the Senate. I'm not sure they're going to carry the Senate. They could, which is amazing in itself with so many Republican seats up. But then the nature of the political attention machine, the beam of sunlight that politicians thrive on, is going to move to the future. Trump will still be a big factor and he'll force himself in the news cycle, but there's going to be a lot of Rubio or Vance or who's this pretty new Republican, and Trump's not going to take that one. Well, you know, there's only one star in this movie. I remember I was a Russian area studies guy at Georgetown and back in the Cold War and that's how old I am. Well, the end of the cold war, early 80s and there was a great old joke about two Russian generals during World War II walking or walking to the Kremlin, Igor and Boris Negra says, Boris, you look so sad. And Boris says, igor, I got a big battle with the Germans, Tom. If I lose, Don's going to shoot me. And Igor says, boris, if you win, he's going to shoot you and your family. There's only one hero in the Soviet Union and that's gonna be the problem. All these Republicans have next year when the sunshine is gonna move to them in the future and Trump is gonna hate it.
- [34:40]
Justin Webb
Mike, this has been such a pleasure, real, real pleasure to talk to you again. Thanks so much and for sparing us the time. And can I book you already to come back maybe just after the midterms cause there will be so much to talk about.
- [34:53]
Mike Murphy
Oh I'd love to. I enjoy seeing you guys. Thanks for having me.
- [34:57]
Justin Webb
It's always good to talk to Mike Murphy, isn't it Sarah? You always learn so much from from him and we are going to talk to him again in the future. My goodness, there is going to be plenty to talk about. But for now, time for us to go as well. So from me, bye bye.
- [35:10]
Sarah
All right, see you next week.
- [35:14]
Justin Webb
Thank you for answering our call and continuing to send your messages to us. We do read every single one. We love to hear your thoughts, your feedback and questions as well. So please do keep them coming, coming. You can send us an email. It's americastbc.co.uk the WhatsApp is 443-301-239480 and you can get involved in the Americast Discord server. The link to that is in the description and don't forget to subscribe. That way you will never miss an episode. Until next time.
- [35:48]
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