Americast – Will US-Canada Relations Ever Be the Same Again?

Date: March 28, 2025
Hosts: Sarah Smith (BBC North America Editor), Anthony Zurcher (BBC North America Correspondent)
Special Guest: Jordan Heath Rawlins (Canadian journalist & host of Elbows Up podcast)

Overview

This episode of Americast dives deep into the escalating tensions between the US and Canada following President Donald Trump’s announcement of sweeping new tariffs on foreign-made cars and the broader impact of his aggressive trade and political rhetoric. The hosts analyze Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement, explore the global ramifications of an emerging trade war, and examine the shockwaves rippling through Canadian politics—including fears of annexation and a historic shift in the upcoming Canadian election. The conversation is enriched by Canadian correspondent Jordan Heath Rawlins, who brings first-hand insight into Canadian sentiment and the depth of the bilateral fallout.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s “Liberation Day”—25% Tariffs and Global Repercussions

• Trump’s announcement: On an unscheduled date, President Trump declared a 25% tariff on all cars not made in the US, branding it “Liberation Day” (04:00).
  • Quote (Donald Trump):
    "This is the beginning of Liberation Day in America...We're going to charge countries for doing business in our country and taking our jobs." (03:57)
• Purpose and Contradictions: The tariffs are designed to force automakers to relocate production to the US, theoretically boosting domestic jobs and revenue. However, hosts note a contradiction: If tariffs succeed and foreign production shifts to the US, there’s no tariff revenue; if not, consumers pay more (05:21).
• Immediate market and political reactions:
  • US auto unions support the move, seeing a boost for manufacturing jobs (06:07)
  • Auto company stocks (GM, Ford, Chrysler) tumble due to exposure to Mexican and Canadian plants (06:52)
  • The EU and Canada immediately threaten retaliatory tariffs, setting the stage for a trade war (07:15)
  • Uncertainty persists, as Trump has previously reversed similar policies (07:28)

2. Impact on US Allies—the UK Example

• UK vulnerability: The UK hopes for exemption from the tariffs. Past discussions between PM Keir Starmer and Trump centered on avoiding these new barriers for British carmakers (07:51)
• High cost to consumers: Already expensive models (Land Rover, Jaguar) would become even less affordable for Americans, shrinking choices and pushing all car prices up (08:32)

3. Tariffs and the US Car Market—An “AmericasT” Listener Question

• Affordability concerns: In response to listener Andrew from Galloway, hosts confirm that the tariffs will raise prices and reduce options in the short term. Even domestic automakers might exploit the new landscape to raise prices (09:51)
  • Quote (Anthony):
    “If you add 25% to the asking price of any car, it is going to make it less affordable…Everything else is 25% more expensive. Maybe [domestic manufacturers] will raise our prices 5% or 10% and get a little bit more profits.” (09:51)

4. Political Context—Tariffs as a Distraction

• SignalGate scandal: Speculation arises that the timing of Trump’s announcement may be meant to distract media and public attention from the ongoing SignalGate controversy (10:17)
• Liberation Day narrative: Trump repeats the April 2nd date “ad nauseam,” underlining his messaging strategy (11:45)

5. Winners and Losers—Spotlight on Tesla & Elon Musk

• Tesla’s relative advantage: With most Tesla vehicles built in the US, the company will be less affected than other electric car makers (12:04)
• Stock reaction: Tesla’s stock rises 22% in five days post-announcement (13:20)
• Trump-Musk dynamic: Trump claims not to consult Musk but praises him; Musk stresses Tesla is not “immune” due to imported components, but competitors will suffer more (14:04)
  • Quote (Sarah):
    “He’s a business genius. You don't get to be the richest man in the world by accident.” (14:44)

6. Canada’s Deepening Crisis—Guest Interview with Jordan Heath Rawlins

Canadian Anger and Anxiety (16:05–28:41)

• What “elbows up” means: Hockey metaphor—prepare for a tough fight without being the aggressor (17:03)
• Canadians furious at Trump’s rhetoric: Especially over annexation talk and the new round of tariffs, which reopen wounds from previous US-Canada trade battles (18:08)
  • Quote (Jordan Heath Rawlins):
    “Canadians are furious in a way I can't remember them having ever been at the United States.” (19:55)
• Not a joke in Canada: While some Americans and others shrug off Trump’s comments, in Canada, his actions and threats are taken very seriously (18:08, 19:55)
• What does Trump actually want?: Jordan suggests Trump is opportunistic, eyeing Canadian resources and Arctic territory, even if there’s no grand strategy (20:31)
  • Quote (Jordan):
    “I think Canadians would be idiotic not to take this seriously. And I don't think any of them are dismissing it.” (21:33)

Political Shockwaves in Canada

• Upcoming election upended: What had looked like a certain Conservative win is suddenly a toss-up or even leaning towards the Liberals, as anger towards Trump boosts incumbents (21:49)
  • Quote (Jordan):
    “This election… is now a toss up. And according to all the polls, slightly favoring the Liberals returning to power. That is just unprecedented in my adult lifetime watching Canadian politics.” (22:59)
• Annexation fears: Canadians doubt the US would allow democratic integration, fearing a status akin to “a giant Puerto Rico” (23:16)
• To fight or not to fight?: Canadians are not looking for confrontation but won’t shrink from it, as illustrated by a local border story about the Haskell Free Library (24:33)
  • Quote (Jordan, on US posturing at the border):
    “Canadians were livid in that area. Like, if they knew she was there when that was going on, they would have fought her… We're not here to fight, but you also don't want that fight.” (24:33, 26:59)

Lasting Damage to Relations

• Trust broken: Even if the immediate tariffs or threats fade, a deep fracture in trust and “normalcy” has emerged (27:15)
• Boycotting US goods: Canadians are already shunning American products—even at a personal cost—as a form of protest and self-preservation (28:30)
  • Quote (Jordan):
    “The California strawberries are now priced down to $3 for a carton. The Ontario strawberries are $6 for a carton. Nobody was buying the cheaper California strawberries. … The expensive Canadian strawberries are almost gone. And that's just like, that's it. That's what's happened here.” (28:30)

7. American Perspectives on the Border (28:51–30:43)

• US border tensions: In places like Maine, disputes over lobster fishing reflect American resentment and sometimes support for Trump’s tough stance (29:01)
  • Quote (Anthony, summarizing a fisherman):
    “Canada’s like that person who lives in your apartment, has been eating your food and not paying your rent. And when you finally say, hey, you gotta cough up your fair share, they get angry at you.” (29:51)
• How much do Americans care?: Only those near the border or with personal ties may feel the rupture. For much of America, Canada simply isn’t front of mind (30:07)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump on tariffs:
  “Friend has been oftentimes much worse than foe. And what we're going to be doing is a 25% tariff on all cars that are not made in the United States.” (03:57)
• Jordan Heath Rawlins on Canadian sentiment:
  “Canadians are furious in a way I can't remember them having ever been at the United States.” (19:55)
• Sarah Smith on Musk:
  “He’s a business genius. You don't get to be the richest man in the world by accident.” (14:44)
• Jordan Heath Rawlins on US annexation talk:
  “Nobody up here believes that they'll let us have a vote. I'm serious. We'll be a giant Puerto Rico.” (23:16)
• Jordan’s Haskell Free Library story:
  “It's a beautiful place. Barack Obama in 2016 called it a symbol of the cooperation between our two countries… On January 30th, Kristi Noem… stood on the U.S. side of the black tape, and she said, USA, number one. And she stepped over the line into Canada and said, 51st state… Canadians were livid in that area… We're not here to fight, but you also don't want that fight.” (24:33–26:59)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tariff Announcement & Analysis: 03:51–07:51
• Impact on UK & Consumer Choices: 07:51–10:07
• Tariffs as Distraction/SignalGate: 10:17–11:45
• Tesla/Elon Musk Dynamic: 12:04–15:21
• Canada Under Threat—Interview with Jordan Heath Rawlins: 16:05–28:41
  • Meaning of "Elbows Up": 16:07–17:03
  • Canadian Reaction to Trump, Annexation Fears: 18:08–23:16
  • Haskell Free Library Story: 24:33–26:59
  • Economic Boycotts and Broken Trust: 28:30
• US Border Perspectives: 29:01–30:07

Conclusion

This episode captures a pivotal moment in North American relations, marked by protectionist US policy, rising trade hostilities, and a dramatic shift in Canada’s political landscape. Through sharp analysis and heartfelt contributions from their Canadian guest, the Americast team brings nuance and immediacy to the story—revealing not only geopolitical consequences, but also the profound human and emotional costs of an unraveling “special relationship.”