Amicus With Dahlia Lithwick | Election Meltdown, Part 3

Date: February 8, 2020
Host: Dahlia Lithwick
Guests: Rick Hasen, Renee DiResta, Brendan Nyhan, Danielle Citron, Joe Bruno

Episode Overview

Election Meltdown, Part 3 dives into the phenomenon of "dirty tricks" in American electoral politics. The episode looks at both high-tech and low-tech mechanisms by which confidence in US elections is undermined, ranging from app failures and misinformation to foreign interference, deep fakes, and good, old-fashioned ballot fraud. With the recent Iowa caucus chaos as a timely case study, the show debates whether American democratic systems can withstand both external and internal manipulation, and examines the complexity of countering these tactics in a media and legal environment often unprepared for the challenges.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Iowa Caucus as Case Study in Election Meltdown

• Election Administration Blunders
  • Iowa 2020 caucus failed due to new, untested technology and inability to count votes on time, leading to widespread confusion and conspiracy theories.
  • Rick Hasen: "Monday night we had our first election meltdown of the 2020 season." [01:54]
• Misinformation & Disinformation
  • Weeks before the caucus, false rumors swirled about cheating and technological failures.
  • The breakdown led to claims from both parties, sowing distrust.
  • Dahlia Lithwick: "This is a bipartisan problem that's being cast as Tom Perez's fault." [03:33]
• Impact of Party vs Official-Run Elections
  • Unlike state-run elections, party-run caucuses are less experienced and more prone to missteps.
  • Intra-party distrust was fueled (e.g., "Mayor Cheat" hashtag about Buttigieg).

2. Defining and Dissecting "Dirty Tricks"

• Scope and Impact
  • "Dirty tricks" include foreign interference, domestic misinformation, technological manipulation, and traditional fraud.
  • Dahlia Lithwick: "It's the ways in which these dirty tricks can undermine public faith in elections..." [06:44]
• Project Birmingham: Domestic Disinformation
  • Liberal operatives mimicked Russian tactics in Alabama’s 2017 Senate race via fake social media profiles and voter suppression targeting Republicans.
  • Rick Hasen: "There were all kinds of attempts to try to convince moderate Republican voters that they shouldn't vote for Roy Moore." [09:22]
  • Brendan Nyhan: "It's very difficult to evaluate the success of campaign influence efforts that take place via Facebook because the platform is so closed." [11:26]
• Legality and Effectiveness
  • Many such tactics are distasteful, but not illegal or easily quantifiable in impact.

3. Foreign Interference and Its Evolution

• Blueprint Set by Russian Activities (2016)
  • Russia used social media manipulation, hacking, and leaking information to destabilize US elections.
  • Renee DiResta: "It's very much a social first participatory process that incorporates everyday people into inadvertently manipulating their neighbors..." [18:41]
  • Rick Hasen: "It’s not just about the voting machines ... What if there's an attack on a power grid in the city of Detroit... turn the lights off." [37:06]
• Information Ecosystems & "Bespoke Realities"
  • Partisans self-sort online, making targeted disinformation more effective.
  • Brendan Nyhan: "The ecosystems that committed partisans live in are an important kind of breeding ground for misinformation..." [20:45]
• Legal Gaps
  • Due to First Amendment interpretations, much manipulation (even by foreigners) is not criminal, especially if not expressly advocating for/against a candidate.

4. Deepfakes & the "Liar's Dividend"

• Technological Threats and Psychological Impact
  • Deepfakes can fabricate convincing video/audio, amplifying the erosion of trust in real information.
  • Danielle Citron: "The existence of deep fakery then can be leveraged by bad actors to cast doubt on things that actually happened." [27:15]
  • Rick Hasen: "Deepfakes make it easier for liars to avoid accountability by claiming things that are in fact true are actually not true." [27:56]
• Regulatory and Practical Barriers
  • Difficult to legislate or prosecute, especially with perpetrators often outside US jurisdiction.
  • Satire and parody vs. malicious fakery; challenging distinctions for courts and platforms.

5. Low-Tech Dirty Tricks: Ballot Fraud in North Carolina

• Local Reporting Uncovers Systemic Abuse
  • Joe Bruno details how absentee ballot "harvesting" in Bladen County, NC, led to an illegitimate election result in 2018.
  • Joe Bruno: "Here we had the same group of people repeatedly signing some of them dozens of ballots..." [43:41]
  • Investigation led to a rare election “do-over,” state reforms, but little federal enforcement.
  • Rick Hasen: "The state Democrats and Republicans were able to get together and to deal with the situation and hopefully take steps so that it can't happen again..." [48:48]

6. Systemic Challenges and Possible Solutions

• Erosion of Public Confidence
  • Polls show significant loss in belief in fair elections; exposure of manipulation risks further nihilism.
  • Rick Hasen: "We're losing confidence overall that the information that we're seeing online is true..." [25:14]
• Systemic Resilience & Activism
  • Transparency, vigilance, and proactiveness are key. Continuous improvement is essential—not just last-minute reform.
  • Dahlia Lithwick: "The system is fixable. It just can't be fixable in October of 2020. We need to fix it now." [49:37]
• Ethics: Fighting Fire with Fire?
  • Is it ever justified for one side to use dirty tricks if the other does? Rick Hasen argues against it, stressing the importance of not further demobilizing and demoralizing voters.
  • Rick Hasen: "I don't think there's something immoral about having a super PAC ... But I do think there's something immoral about trying to suppress the vote by spreading misinformation or trying to demobilize people." [51:43]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On systemic partisan distrust:
  • Dahlia Lithwick: "The net effect... is the thing that you're terrified of happening, which is everybody starts to think not only that it’s rigged, but that there’s just no point in voting at all." [04:56]
• On domestic disinformation:
  • Rick Hasen: "Americans can try and do in 2020 themselves. We don’t need foreign interference. We can interfere with our own elections, thank you very much." [13:39]
• On media and hack-and-leak operations:
  • Renee DiResta: "Anytime they want to control a media narrative or shift a media narrative, a new set of documents is dropped." [35:17]
• On deepfakes and distrust:
  • Danielle Citron: "It’s so persuasive, it grabs us in the gut. And what if it’s timed just right the night before an election?" [27:15]
  • "The existence of deep fakery then can be leveraged by bad actors to cast doubt on things that actually happened." [27:56]
• On election resilience:
  • Rick Hasen: "It’s not an on off switch... think about this in terms of 2020 as what are the things we can do to lessen the chances that dirty tricks... are actually going to interfere." [50:46]
• On prescriptive action:
  • Dahlia Lithwick: "If we can persuade our elections officials, our political officials, our voting public that actually there are tweaks to systems that could make this thing serve all of our interests, then let’s do that." [49:37]

Important Segment Timestamps

• 00:59 — Iowa caucus disaster as a microcosm of election doubts
• 06:44 — Set-up of “dirty tricks” and their impact on public confidence
• 08:04 — Project Birmingham: Domestic disinformation in the Alabama Senate race
• 11:06 – Brendan Nyhan on effectiveness and risks of domestic influence campaigns
• 16:54 — Rick Hasen on Russian interference: 3 categories (social media, hacking/leak, voter database attacks)
• 21:55 — Discussion of Russian micro-targeting of African Americans in 2016
• 26:58 — Danielle Citron on deepfakes and the “liar’s dividend”
• 33:37 – Introduction to Ballot fraud in North Carolina's 9th Congressional District
• 43:41 — Joe Bruno on the mechanics and discovery of ballot harvesting
• 48:48 — System failures and successful state-level intervention in North Carolina
• 49:37 — Dahlia summarizes the fixability of the system and need for proactive reform
• 51:43 — Rick Hasen’s final thoughts on “fighting fire with fire” and election integrity

Tone & Style

• Analytical and urgent, but explanatory and accessible.
• Balanced between legal, technological, and practical perspectives.
• Focused on actionable information for listeners concerned with democratic resilience.

Final Summary

This episode of Amicus explores the many ways electoral trust is undermined by "dirty tricks," from failed apps in Iowa to sophisticated Russian interference to local election fraud. While the legal and technical landscape is riddled with gaps that allow for manipulation, there remain means to counteract these threats through transparency, vigilance, and ongoing reform. Ultimately, the episode underscores the importance of public confidence, ethical campaigning, and systemic resilience—while warning against the demoralizing effects of cynicism and inaction.