Episode Overview

Main Theme:
This episode of Amicus with Dahlia Lithwick (February 26, 2020) features a special bonus segment with Professor Brendan Nyhan, a leading political scientist at Dartmouth. The focus is a candid, research-backed analysis of misinformation, disinformation, and media influence on American elections—especially looking back at the 2016 cycle and forward to subsequent elections. Nyhan challenges popular narratives about foreign interference, highlights the greater threat from domestic actors, and explores the broader social consequences of living in a polluted information environment.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

The Role and Impact of Russian Interference (01:09–04:02)

• Russian Tactics and Exposure:

  • Professor Nyhan describes the Russian influence campaign in 2016 as "unprecedented in how brazen and open it was" (01:18), with millions of Americans exposed to some form of content stemming from Russian state actors.
  • The Russian effort sought to "divide Americans," sometimes by promoting deliberate disinformation, but often by amplifying genuine, divisive issues.

• Actual Effect on the Election:

  • Despite widespread exposure, "that's a tiny percentage of the information that anyone was exposed to during the campaign" (02:26).
  • Nyhan stresses there is "no convincing evidence that the Russian interference effort changed the election outcome. The effects were probably quite minimal." (02:59)
  • He notes that the most profound result may have been the ongoing polarization and controversy triggered after the exposure of Russian activities: "Being detected created this ongoing controversy that has divided us in the years since and... helped to undermine the legitimacy of the current president." (03:41)

Domestic Misinformation Outweighs Foreign Influence (04:07–05:46)

• Scale of Domestic vs. Foreign Misinformation:

  • Nyhan asserts, "Mainstream news still was the primary source of information for the overwhelming majority of Americans" (05:13), with "most of their misinformation from domestic political actors, from the conventional campaign itself, and most notably from... Donald Trump, who has engaged in an unprecedented level of misinformation" (05:23).
  • He frames Russian activity and fake news websites as "worrisome precedents" that could worsen if unchecked, but emphasizes their marginal influence compared to domestic sources.

• Notable Quote:

  • "There's almost no way to avoid being exposed to [Trump's] misinformation if you followed the campaign at all." (05:36)

Fox News as a Misinformation Conduit (05:46–06:31)

• Relative Reach and Influence:
  • Comparing Fox News and Russian actors: "I think it's fair to say that more Americans are regularly exposed to misinformation via Fox than were regularly exposed... via, say, Russian bots and trolls." (05:55)
  • Nyhan caveats that while not all Fox content is misinformation, particularly "primetime shows that are most partisan... play a critical role in the misinformation delivery mechanisms that are most important on the right now." (06:17)

The Liar’s Dividend and Information Pollution (06:31–07:54)

• Concept of the “Liar’s Dividend”:
  • The risk isn’t only that people believe lies, but that so much distortion causes skepticism towards any information—what’s real becomes impossible to discern.
  • Nyhan is cautious: "I don't know of good evidence to support that claim in contemporary American politics, but I'm worried about it." (06:55)
  • He references authoritarian regimes where "the fear is... the way in which it degrades the information environment and causes people to give up on figuring out what is true." (07:12)

When Americans Mimic Russian Tactics (07:54–09:52)

• Domestic Emulation of Disinformation:

  • Discussed the 2017 Alabama Senate race, where American actors emulated Russian tactics—though Nyhan notes "the project was a failure... even some of the operatives who carried it out have since repudiated it." (08:37)
  • Highlights that domestic actors may now be the bigger danger, blurring regulatory and ethical boundaries and catching tech platforms off guard.

• Notable Quote:

  • "There's a very strong consensus that foreign actors have no place in our elections. But the questions become much more complicated when it comes to people who are part of our political process but are stretching the boundaries of conventional politics." (08:56)

Deepfakes, Cheapfakes, and Manipulated Media (09:52–11:29)

• Current Threat Assessment:
  • Nyhan suggests the concern over deepfakes in U.S. politics is, for now, "overhyped. We have seen no successful mainstream deepfake having an important effect on national politics..." (10:10)
  • Greater risk lies in "cheap fakes" (low-tech manipulations), citing viral misleading edits like the "Nancy Pelosi ‘drunk’ video" (10:47) and doctored footage of Jim Acosta (10:58).

Who’s Most Susceptible to Misinformation? (11:29–13:31)

• Susceptibility Factors:

  • "The ideal target audience for political misinformation is your core supporters... who have the strongest reason to believe some misinformation about the other side." (12:01)
  • Explains how misinformation "breeds" within partisan ecosystems, later leaking into mainstream discourse—a process seen with the birther myth, Pizzagate, etc. (12:47)

• Strategic Takeaway:

  • Countering misinformation early within these insular digital spaces may prevent wider spread.

Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• On Russian Interference:

  • “Millions of Americans had at least some contact with content that was produced by the Russian government or people associated with it... The effects were probably quite minimal.” (Brendan Nyhan, 01:37, 02:59)

• On the Impact of Detection:

  • “Being detected created this ongoing controversy that has divided us in the years since and... helped to undermine the legitimacy of the current president.” (Brendan Nyhan, 03:41)

• On Domestic vs Foreign Misinformation:

  • “Anyone following the campaign therefore was getting most of their misinformation from domestic political actors, from the conventional campaign itself, and most notably from... Donald Trump.” (Brendan Nyhan, 05:23)

• On Fox News Influence:

  • “More Americans are regularly exposed to misinformation via Fox than were regularly exposed to misinformation via... Russian bots and trolls.” (Brendan Nyhan, 05:55)

• On the Liar’s Dividend:

  • “The fear is less about propaganda that convinces everybody... and more about the way in which it degrades the information environment and causes people to give up on figuring out what is true.” (Brendan Nyhan, 07:12)

• On Deepfakes vs Cheapfakes:

  • “The threat from deepfakes is so far overhyped... The threat, I think, is more from what have been called cheap fakes, the kinds of low quality distortions... that can be created at a large enough scale...” (Brendan Nyhan, 10:10, 10:20)

• On Target Audiences for Misinformation:

  • “The ideal target audience for political misinformation is your core supporters, the people who have the strongest reason to believe some misinformation about the other side...” (Brendan Nyhan, 12:01)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 01:09–04:02 | Russian interference: scale, intent, effect
• 04:07–05:46 | Fake news, mainstream media, Trump as primary source of misinformation
• 05:52–06:31 | Fox News and the delivery of misinformation
• 06:55–07:54 | The “liar’s dividend” and information environment pollution
• 07:54–09:52 | Americans mimicking Russian tactics, repercussions, and regulatory struggles
• 09:52–11:29 | Deepfakes vs cheapfakes—real current risk
• 11:59–13:31 | Who is most susceptible and strategies for counteraction

Conclusion

Throughout the episode, Professor Brendan Nyhan underlines that while foreign disinformation campaigns are real and troubling, the greater and more insidious threat to American democracy comes from domestic sources—both mainstream and fringe. The conversation offers a sobering but sharply evidence-based perspective urgently relevant for anyone concerned about the future of election integrity and the health of U.S. political discourse.