Podcast Summary: Amicus With Dahlia Lithwick

Episode: The Predictability is Part of the Tragedy
Release Date: January 9, 2021
Host: Dahlia Lithwick
Guest: Joshua Geltzer – Founding Executive Director, Institute for Constitutional Advocacy & Protection; Georgetown University Law Center

Overview

This special episode was recorded in the aftermath of the January 6, 2021, storming of the US Capitol. Host Dahlia Lithwick speaks with national security and constitutional law expert Joshua Geltzer about the meaning, predictability, and repercussions of the attack. The conversation focuses on the underlying trends that made the insurrection possible, societal and institutional failures, the nature of incitement and responsibility, and the potential paths forward for American democracy.

Main Themes & Insights

• The Predictability and Tragedy of the Capitol Attack

  • Geltzer and Lithwick reflect on the foreseeability of Trump’s refusal to concede and escalating misinformation; they argue the insurrection was not an aberration but the culmination of years of rhetoric and democratic backsliding.
  • Both speakers emphasize the dangers of minimizing the events or succumbing to humorous dismissals of the extremism on display.

• Complicity and Amplification, Not Just Indulgence

  • The conversation critiques Republican leadership for failing to draw “red lines” against election misinformation and instead amplifying Trump’s baseless claims.
  • The rhetoric of key figures (Trump, Cruz, Giuliani) and their impact on the crowd are discussed without resorting to technicalities of legal incitement.

• Language, Framing, and the Challenge of Naming

  • The difficulty in agreeing on terminology (“protesters,” “insurrectionists,” “domestic terrorists”) is highlighted as a barrier to grappling with the crisis and preparing for the future.
  • Geltzer advocates for recognizing the actions as domestic terrorism and addressing the inadequacy of language around these events.

• Law Enforcement Failures and Racial Double Standards

  • The discussion addresses the shocking lack of preparedness at the Capitol and contrasts it with law enforcement responses to Black Lives Matter protests and other demonstrations.
  • Both speakers argue that the threat was underestimated, in part, due to the mostly white makeup of the attackers.

• Civil-Military Relations and National Security Implications

  • The episode examines the tension between concerns about military intervention in domestic politics and the need for decisive action during crises.
  • Geltzer notes the confusion over leadership on January 6 and expresses concern over the remaining days of the Trump administration.

• The Work Ahead: Repair, Accountability, and Reform

  • Optimism is drawn from the incoming Biden administration’s appointments and recognition of structural democratic challenges.
  • There is an emphasis on both meeting immediate crises and engaging in long-term repair of democratic norms and institutions.

Key Discussion Points & Notable Quotes

The Predictability of the Attack

• [04:01] Joshua Geltzer:
  “The predictability is part of the tragedy here. This was not some break with the previous Trump...this was the culmination...it fit with the pattern that he wouldn’t accept [defeat] graciously or indeed at all.”
• [07:25] Joshua Geltzer:
  “If we don’t remember it, if we don’t keep it tattooed on the inside of our eyelids for weeks and months to come, we will be making a serious mistake…”

The Dangers of Minimization and Irony

• [06:00] Dahlia Lithwick:
  “It’s very, very easy to succumb to the funny memes…people died […] I think what happened on Wednesday was one of the most sobering and consequential things I’ve ever seen.”

The “Jocularity” of White Supremacist Rebranding

• [10:50] Joshua Geltzer:
  “That combination of deadly serious ideology, deadly serious actions on Wednesday, and some element of ridiculousness and humor—it seems to be gaining traction…It is part of how, in an Internet-driven, meme-driven digital world, these groups have taken some very ancient and awful ideas, but also given them a certain modern and even jocular look.”

Complicity and Republican Response

• [16:39] Joshua Geltzer:
  “It was the opposite of a red line. There was instead, by some, a willingness to amplify the president when he insisted on things that were not true…It was allowed to fester.”

Words and Incitement

• [21:34] Joshua Geltzer:
  “These, the types of spreading of disinformation you’re talking about, made Americans descend on Washington, D.C. with weapons, believing the 2020 election had been rigged...and had them descending on the US Capitol to try to make it so.”

Naming and Preparedness

• [24:59] Joshua Geltzer:
  “These words matter a ton...We have a definition [...] that acts of domestic terrorism are those intended to coerce or intimidate a civilian population or alter the policies or actions of government...That’s precisely what those who used violence at the Capitol wanted to do.”

Law Enforcement and Racial Disparities

• [32:41] Joshua Geltzer:
  “It is a big problem… it clearly would have played out differently on Wednesday had people looked different. That’s one of these vital, urgent challenges that sits on the table…”

The Risks of Military Hesitance and National Guard Use

• [36:02] Joshua Geltzer:
  “This week was not clearly...the way one would want to see any of that play out…Ultimately there is a need for force to meet force. We had crossed into the point where the Capitol had been breached and people were being assaulted within it.”

The Interregnum and Civil-Military Worries

• [41:03] Joshua Geltzer:
  “Below the political level, there are extraordinary Americans in the military and the intelligence services...they are continuing to do what they signed up to do and what they do as patriots, which is try to protect and defend this country.”

Long-Term Repair and Reform

• [46:58] Joshua Geltzer:
  "To me, these wonderful folks who are about to lead the Justice Department...indicate a recognition by the incoming administration that there are fundamental structural things that need work in addition to the urgencies of now...Those underpinnings of our democracy need some real attention..."

Timestamps for Notable Segments

• Opening context, summary of Capitol events: 00:17 – 02:47
• Predictability of Trump’s refusal to concede and escalation: 02:50 – 07:25
• Minimization, humor, and the danger of treating the insurrection lightly: 06:00 – 10:50
• The role of meme culture & white supremacist rebranding: 10:50 – 13:03
• Complicity and Republican responsibility, including clip from Ted Cruz: 13:03 – 16:39
• Disinformation and amplification after November 3: 16:39 – 19:30
• Responsibility for incitement (Trump, Giuliani, Cruz) and crowd rhetoric: 19:30 – 23:24
• Struggles with language, “domestic terrorism” framing: 23:24 – 26:57
• Law enforcement failures and racial double standards: 31:17 – 34:33
• Pentagon, National Guard, and fears of military involvement: 34:33 – 36:02
• Security confusion, chain of command, civil-military concerns: 39:21 – 43:35
• Exit, voice, and loyalty problem in resignations: 43:35 – 45:49
• Biden administration, repair and rebuild—the arc of the moral universe: 45:49 – 48:55

Memorable Moments

• Dahlia recounts the urge to use irony in the face of tragedy but insists on recognizing the true gravity of events.
• Geltzer emphasizes that the “humor” of extremist groups is a deliberate rebranding to make extremism more palatable and difficult to confront seriously.
• A candid discussion about how law enforcement’s failure on January 6 cannot simply be explained as deference to protected political speech, given the contrast to previous protest responses.
• Both guests share concern about the “magical thinking” that January 20th will simply reset American democracy to normal.
• Hope expressed in the Biden administration’s appointments, signaling a focus on rights, truth, and repairing democracy’s foundations.

Tone and Language

• The conversation is grave, analytical, and reflects both directness and candor. Dahlia Lithwick repeatedly checks herself and the audience against sliding into complacency or ironic detachment, insisting that the moment demands sobriety, accountability, and seriousness about democratic threats.

Final Takeaway

The episode serves as both a warning and a call to action: the Capitol attack was predictable, deeply consequential, and indicative of larger trends that demand urgent response—both in holding perpetrators accountable and addressing systemic weaknesses in American democracy.