Podcast Summary

Amicus With Dahlia Lithwick | "Trump Has a New 'Big Lie' for the Midterms"

Date: February 7, 2026
Host: Dahlia Lithwick
Guest: Mark Elias (Election lawyer, chair of Elias Law Group, founder of Democracy Docket)

Episode Overview

This episode explores growing threats to democracy, voting rights, and election integrity in the run-up to the 2026 midterms, focusing especially on new "Big Lie" rhetoric and tactics from Donald Trump and his allies. Dahlia Lithwick is joined by prominent election law expert Mark Elias for a detailed examination of recent escalations—including federal law enforcement actions, efforts to nationalize elections, and attempts to intimidate voters. The conversation critiques both legal and extralegal maneuvers targeting the voting process, analyzes the normalization of previously unthinkable conduct, and addresses the role of media and messaging in upholding democracy.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Scene: Democracy at a Crossroads

00:51–05:00

• Lithwick opens with optimism about signs of democratic resilience (Trump's poll slip, civic mobilization, judicial pushback), but warns of an escalating "unequal and opposite reaction" from anti-democratic forces.
• Introduction of guest Mark Elias as a leading legal mind addressing election threats.

"Democracy is in a footrace with itself... Judges putting the brakes on one vile Trump initiative after another." —Dahlia Lithwick (00:51)

2. Escalating Rhetoric & Real Threats: ICE at the Polls

06:25–09:15

• Discussion of Steve Bannon's announcement that ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) would "surround the polls" during the midterms, with a pledge to send federal officers to polling stations.
• Elias says the threat is not a troll but a serious normalization effort: increasing the intimidation of voting, using paramilitaries rather than the disciplined military, and making voting feel unsafe for determent.

"He wants to normalize the idea that you see people with flashbang grenades and tear gas... making it more intimidating to vote."
—Mark Elias (06:25)

• Legal constraints exist (laws against militarized polling stations), but Mark notes that Trump relies on permissive federal agencies and the threat of pardons, eroding the force of those constraints.

3. The Push to ‘Nationalize’ Elections

09:15–11:43

• Trump recently claimed the time has come to “nationalize” elections, specifically referencing Republican control over voting in Democratic jurisdictions.
• Elias clarifies: Trump is not calling for fair, uniform administration, but a partisan takeover in key blue areas, abusing federal power to shape results.

"He's talking about a partisan takeover, not a federal versus state takeover." —Mark Elias (10:31)

• The bigger threat, Elias warns, is Trump’s claims about presidential power over elections—a new “Big Lie” to justify federal interference.

4. Legal Preparations: Civil Society and State Resistance

11:43–15:32

• Elias describes an "escalation" comparable to 2020 (attacks on mail-in ballots, cascading protests, litigation, culminating in January 6th).
• Now, organized defense is underway: Elias' firm is litigating 80 cases in 40 states; Democratic AGs are also preparing for multifaceted threats.
• Warns listeners not to be lulled into complacency by seeing early attacks as "normal jockeying"—they have consistently signaled later, more serious anti-democratic actions.

"This is just the progression that he [Trump] goes through, and I think everyone needs to be really worried."
—Mark Elias (15:24)

5. The Georgia Ballot Seizure: Proof of Concept for Subversion

18:37–23:54

• Deep dive on the recent FBI raid in Fulton County, GA, where ballots and documents were seized with Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard on site—an unprecedented escalation.
• Elias emphasizes the learning curve: These actions are not just about 2020 or showmanship; they're “proof of concept” for how to subvert future elections.

"Tulsi Gabbard is on a truck full of documents... This is like off the charts [alarm level] because they have unlocked... how to subvert the outcome of an election."
—Mark Elias (21:28)

• Worryingly, the search was run out of Missouri instead of Georgia, signaling a federalizing of election "probes."

"It is the thing that I probably worry the most about." —Mark Elias (22:33)

6. National Security Pretexts & Data Seizure

23:54–29:41

• The Georgia warrant did not cite national security, yet Gabbard’s presence was designed to frame the raid in those terms—potentially smoothing the path for future overreach.
• Lithwick and Elias discuss the DOJ's nationwide lawsuits seeking granular voter data (including Social Security numbers), targeting blue states.
• This is essential infrastructure for suppressive tactics: knowing whose ballots to disqualify or disenfranchise.

"They need the data to know who they're targeting, who they're not targeting... those lawsuits are really important, and I hope everyone pays attention."
—Mark Elias (28:58)

7. Normalization of Violence and Chilling Dissent

29:41–35:47

• Elias points out that raids, armed presence, and intimidation have already been normalized in some cities, with subsequent incidents attracting less shock and making future suppression easier.
• They discuss the chilling effect of DOJ power, not just against high-profile figures, but also ordinary voters, poll watchers, and low-level officials—leading to self-censorship and disengagement out of fear.

"What it does is it causes people to back away from the line... Not everyone, we're seeing a lot of courage, but it has this incremental effect."
—Mark Elias (35:38)

8. The Achilles Heel: Media’s Failure to Meet the Moment

35:47–41:11

• The media is critiqued for "both sides" framing and underplaying clear democratic crises, failing to report pro-democracy facts with proper clarity.
• Corporate pressures and a desire to curry favor contribute to downplaying or normalizing attacks on democratic institutions.

"When it comes to elections... then the media falls into much more of a both sides framing... it is absolutely corrosive to a democracy."
—Mark Elias (38:18)

9. Litigation Landscape: Where the Legal Fights Are Now

42:29–44:54

• Elias outlines the current litigation map:
  • More than 160 active voting rights cases nationwide
  • 48 active redistricting cases
  • Majority of new cases now seek to restrict voting, due in large part to DOJ actions
  • Key issues: access to voter data, proof-of-citizenship requirements (which disenfranchise many), attacks on voting by mail, and "election subversion" (undermining certification/results).

10. How to Message Both Alarm & Hope—The “Two Thoughts” Conundrum

44:54–53:33

• Lithwick notes criticism: Does discussing these threats deter participation and erode public confidence?
• Elias’ position: Silence isn’t an option—the threats are real and would reach the public regardless. Voters need to be aware but also empowered, not paralyzed.

"Anyone who is a fatalist about this, you are doing Donald Trump's work... The message I have for people is that you need to make sure you are registered to vote. You need to have a plan to vote."
—Mark Elias (48:29)

• Sunlight and preparation are crucial: exposing these schemes now makes them harder to pull off later. Elias urges civic action and group mobilization as key remedies.

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "He wants to normalize the idea that you see people with flashbang grenades and tear gas... making it more intimidating to vote."
  —Mark Elias (06:38)

• "What he's really doing ... is suggesting that the president has powers over elections that he doesn't have."
  —Mark Elias (11:04)

• "Tulsi Gabbard is on a truck full of documents... This is like off the charts [alarm level] because they ... unlocked how to subvert the outcome of an election."
  —Mark Elias (21:28)

• "They need the data to know who they're targeting, who they're not targeting... those lawsuits are really important, and I hope everyone pays attention."
  —Mark Elias (28:58)

• "He is doing the thing that he wants to do, which is the second time there is a raid on an office will not be as newsworthy as the first, and the third will be less newsworthy..."
  —Mark Elias (30:46)

• "When it comes to elections... then the media falls into much more of a both sides framing... it is absolutely corrosive to a democracy."
  —Mark Elias (38:18)

• "If you believe that it is just hopelessly rigged ... also not your guy. I am in the we can fight and prevent these things from happening."
  —Mark Elias (47:12)

• "Anyone who is a fatalist about this, you are doing Donald Trump's work... The message I have for people is ... make sure you are registered to vote... but you also need to be speaking out about these things."
  —Mark Elias (48:29)

KEY TIMESTAMPS

| Segment | Timestamp | |-------------------------------------------------------|------------------| | Main theme, opening context | 00:51–05:06 | | ICE at the Polls/Bannon Rhetoric | 06:25–09:15 | | “Nationalize” Elections—Trump’s New Big Lie | 09:15–11:43 | | Legal preparations / escalation reminder | 11:43–15:32 | | Ballot seizure in Georgia, Tulsi Gabbard’s role | 18:37–23:54 | | National security pretexts, voter data lawsuits | 23:54–29:41 | | Normalization of violence, impact on participation | 29:41–35:47 | | Media’s failures and role in the crisis | 35:47–41:11 | | Summary of ongoing election/voting litigation | 42:29–44:54 | | Messaging alarm vs. hope, the resilience argument | 44:54–53:33 |

Takeaways for Listeners

• The stakes for the 2026 midterms are existential: new tactics and rhetoric from Trump/affiliates are already shaping the environment for voter suppression, intimidation, and the potential federal takeover of elections in Democratic areas.
• Normalization of authoritarian tactics is both deliberate and effective; public shock is actively being diminished through repetition and escalation.
• Legal resistance is robust and ongoing, but challenges are multiplying; keeping informed and engaged is essential.
• Civic participation remains effective—do not be deterred by fear or fatalism. Sunlight and action are the most powerful defenses.
• Media consumption should come with a critical lens—seek pro-democracy, fact-forward sources, and be wary of “both sides” false equivalence.

Closing Message

Mark Elias emphatically urges, despite real threats and rising alarm:

• “Have a plan. Vote. Bring your friends. Speak openly about the risks—but don’t allow fear or cynicism to drive you out of the democratic process.”

(Lithwick: 53:33) “What you’ve really done today is unpicked the cliches and the tropes and made it really real and made it even scarier but even more important... Thank you for your work.”