Amicus With Dahlia Lithwick | Law, Justice, and the Courts

Episode: "Trump Has a Plan for the Midterms, SCOTUS May Help"
Date: March 28, 2026
Host: Dahlia Lithwick
Guest: Ian Bassin (Co-founder & Executive Director, Protect Democracy; former Associate White House Counsel under Obama)

Main Theme

This episode tackles the precipitous decline of American democracy under Trump’s second term and examines the playbook of democratic backsliding witnessed globally. Host Dahlia Lithwick and Ian Bassin break down new data on the U.S.’s rapid slide toward autocracy, the role of the courts (especially the Supreme Court), and how this all intersects with upcoming elections. The episode layers analysis of democratic trends, the evolution of legal and civic strategies to protect democracy, and specific threats to electoral integrity in the unfolding 2026 midterms.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Descendancy of American Democracy—Not a “Blip,” but the New Normal

• V-Dem’s annual democracy index shows the U.S. backsliding more rapidly than archetypal examples (Hungary, Turkey, Venezuela, Russia).
  • “Holy crap, the US is declining faster than those sort of canonical examples of Democratic backsliding.” (A, 01:40)
• The decline is “epochal,” not just “the usual red and blue bickering.”
• Comfort and warning in knowing that this fits a global authoritarian playbook: attacks on judiciary, press, academia.

2. Three Layers of Democratic Decline

• Acute Threat: Trump’s attempt to establish electoral autocracy, akin to Hungary.
• Long Domestic Trend: Erosion of institutions and democratic resilience beyond the Trump phenomenon.
• Global Trajectory: Autocratization as a common 21st-century pattern.
• The U.S. dropped faster in democracy quality post-Trump re-election than Orban’s Hungary, Erdogan’s Turkey, or Putin’s Russia (A, 08:07–13:40).

“Donald Trump is historically unpopular...he’s acting as if he won a 60% majority and the people are rebelling against it... And that is actually not a good plan if you are trying to build an electoral autocracy.”
— Ian Bassin (A), 13:20

3. The Unique Challenge of Building Autocracy in the U.S. Context

• Autocracy relies on consolidating power before unpopularity sets in; Trump lacked the discipline and timing of Orban or Putin.
• Public and institutional resistance, visible in recent elections and public protests, is significant.
• Democrats winning special elections by wide margins, including in Republican strongholds:
  • “The American public are rebelling at the voting booth against Donald Trump before he has fully consolidated power.” (A, 13:20)

4. The Evolving Role of Litigation and the Courts

• Protect Democracy began as a lawyer-heavy, litigation-centric organization, but found that protecting democracy is ultimately a political problem, not just legal.
• Lower court victories still matter, even if reversed by a more Trumpian Supreme Court—they slow down anti-democratic efforts and create public awareness.
• Example: Federal militarized force cases (Chicago, Minneapolis) created accountability and media records, even if SCOTUS didn’t side with democracy (A, 23:24–29:59).

“We’re doing these lower court cases not because we think we’re gonna win at the Supreme Court every time, but we’re creating a record, we’re calling out lies, we’re telling stories.”
— Dahlia Lithwick (B), 29:59

• Supreme Court justices themselves are not immune to political culture and have become “pickled” in the new authoritarian zeitgeist.

5. Supreme Court and 2026 Election

• Focused discussion on Watson v. RNC (mail-in ballots), highlighting justices parroting “big lie” election fraud language:
  • Justice Alito: “Confidence in election outcomes can be seriously undermined if the apparent outcome of the election on the day after the polls close is radically flipped by the acceptance later of a big stash of ballots that flip the election...” (Alito quoted, 40:12)
• While this Court once rejected Trump’s stolen election claims, today it is “pickled in Trumpian populism.”

“This is not law. This is just politics by other means. And these people are not brilliant legal minds... They are human beings, and... they live in many ways in some of... the same information environments we live in. And they're pro to the cultural winds.”
— Ian Bassin (A), 42:01

6. The 2026 Playbook: Deceive, Disrupt, Deny (and Defeat)

• Trump’s strategy to remain in power relies on a three-Ds approach:
  1. Deceive: Spread conspiracy about election fraud, seek to convince more accomplices than in 2020.
  2. Disrupt: Use manufactured doubt to justify disenfranchising legislation (e.g., the SAVE Act).
  3. Deny: If disruption fails and he still loses, attempt to deny the result outright (referencing real life examples like North Carolina 2024).
  4. Defeat: Past efforts have been beaten back by wide public and institutional opposition (A, 31:44–38:27).

“The guy lost an election one time so far and refused to leave without inciting a violent insurrection on the Capitol. So if you want to know how people are gonna react in an election that they’re not favored to do well in, just look at how they’ve reacted in the past…”
— Ian Bassin (A), 31:44

7. Countermeasures: What Needs to Happen Next

• Every voice and platform should counter lies about election fraud.
• Support election officials and poll workers (tangible support, volunteering):
  • “Get the backs of your local clerks....Show them they’re not alone.”
• Overwhelming participation and mass mobilization make results resistant to denial.
• Organizing starts not in November, but now.
• “If you are out there, thank you. This is the practice run...it is ultimately going to be the final backstop…the first three words of the Constitution, we, the people.” (A, 53:29–54:55)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Mail in voting means mail in cheating. I call it mail in cheating. I used a mail in ballot.”
  — Parodying Trump’s claims, highlighting the hypocrisy (A, 01:40)

• “Democracy may have fallen off the luggage rack of America’s station wagon and is now just visible in the rearview mirror.”
  — Dahlia Lithwick’s darkly comic summary of the national moment (B, 02:42)

• On the Supreme Court:
  “It’s such a great image...they've gotten pickled by this moment....They haven't gone all the way there. They're not Steve Bannon yet, but they've moved materially.”
  — Ian Bassin (A), 42:01–46:40

• On Mobilization:
  “It is ultimately up to us. And we have been able to do it for 250 years. We've overcome so many imperfections, challenges, tragedies, corruptions to get here. And I think as we approach the 250th, I'm actually to get back to the beginning. I am quite hopeful that we will see to the next 250 that we are being tested. We will come through this challenge. We will be stronger for it.”
  — Ian Bassin (A), 53:29

• “This is the practice run because if it comes down to an autocrat trying to overturn the election, it is ultimately going to be the final backstop. The first three words of the Constitution, we, the people who say no, just like the people of Minnesota did. Not on our watch.”
  — Ian Bassin (A), 53:45

Timestamps for Important Segments

| Timestamp | Segment/Topic | |-----------|-----------------------------------------------------------| | 01:40–05:11 | State of democracy, V-Dem data, and trends | | 08:07–14:25 | Autocratic playbooks, FT’s rapid decline data | | 15:14–20:59 | Protect Democracy’s evolving strategy, courts’ role | | 23:24–29:59 | How Protect Democracy picks litigation, Chicago/Minneapolis cases | | 30:35–38:27 | 2026 election threats; ICE as election intimidation preview, Bannon quote, “Deceive, Disrupt, Deny” | | 40:12–46:40 | The Supreme Court’s evolution, mail-in ballots hearing | | 47:27–54:55 | What citizens must do—mobilizing, supporting elections, historical precedents, “we the people” | | 53:29–end | Inspirational close—Fourth Founding, hope beyond the crisis |

Actionable Takeaways & Recommendations

• Get involved now: Volunteer as a poll worker (powerthepolls.org), support local election officials, and inform others about the facts.
• Counter misinformation: Use your voice and platform to reject big-lie narratives.
• If democracy is to survive another test, overwhelming civic participation and mass mobilization—before, during, and after the vote—will be the decisive factors.

Overall Tone

Urgent, unsparing, yet ultimately hopeful. Heavy with dark humor and meticulous legal-political analysis, the conversation balances warning and empowerment, rooting for collective agency and the hopeful promise of a “Fourth Founding” in American democracy.