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On today's Andy Naron 3, we are talking season win totals for all your favorite teams because it is that time. We've been digging deep into schedules. Ari did his projected playoff. I've done my projected playoff. That's coming out later this week. It's time to figure out how many games these teams are going to win. We'll talk about that. Plus a crazy Friday night where you had a ruling in the state of Colorado that might allow some players that thought their college careers were over to play. And Also, meanwhile, in D.C. you had the SEC and the Big Ten agreeing to support the Protect College Sports act, which was basically dead and is now like the undertaker gif risen and might be voted on in the Senate this week. We'll talk about what all that means on Today's Annie and Arian 3, presented by Polymarket. We got a new sponsor alert Ari. We are now brought to you by Polymarket. That's right. Available in all 50 states. Download that Polymarket app. And now we're taking positions.
B
That's what we're always doing.
A
Moving market.
B
It feels great. Yeah, we're market movers, guys.
A
Exactly. So we're going to talk about win totals today. But this works very much like what you're used to. The difference is, well, if you've traded soybean futures or pork bellies, you're really going to know what's going on. But basically you're taking a position saying something to the tune of, I don't know, I think Auburn will win more than seven and a half games. And based on how many other people take the position either with you or against you, that changes your payout and it also changes as the season goes on. So. So you got that. You've also got positions you can take on games that are going on right now, like Major League Baseball or once college football gets kicked off, there'll be positions on games that are going on, there will be spreads. It will be very similar to what you're used to. So download the Polymarket app and use the code on three new users get $20 when they deposit 10 on signup. So you deposit 10 bucks, you. You get 20 bucks from Polymarket and you start trading. And we're going to talk about some of the win totals that just dropped this morning.
B
Ari. It feels, feels like football season, man. We're here, we're in the studio, we're in Nashville together in the flesh. And there's nothing better than my two favorite things in the entire world, Andy. College football and trading.
A
That's right. So let's start trading with polymarket. Download that app, use the code on 3 when you deposit $10, you get $20 right off the bat. Ari let's have a show.
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Let's have a show.
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Welcome to Andy and Ariane3. Presented by Polymarket and ARRI new sponsor. The people who listen to the ad already knew that. But we are sponsored by Polymarket starting today and it is a very interesting way of looking at the world, especially the world of college football because they have dropped some win totals.
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Yes sir.
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Today. And we are watching them change in real time. We were watching people hit these things in real time and is a lot of fun because some people may be optimistic, some people may be pessimistic, but basically the way Polymarket works is you take a position. So it'd be just like you were, you were trading soybean futures and you say, I think this, this thing will be this price on this day. You're basically saying, I think Oregon, when the season ends, will have won ten and a half plus games.
B
The thing that I like the most about the app, Andy, is is that you can visually see how you're doing.
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Yes.
B
With a graph it shows you and there are things that will take into account, you know, in games, you know, a little bit differently than a season long position. You know, if somebody's starting quarterback on another team and your conference gets hurt and you take that team to win the conference, that will impact your position. So as you go go on and through the season and it's just wins and losses that will have the largest impact on a weekly basis. But things can change all the time and you can see what other people think. You can try to fade those people. You can, you know, take similar position. It's up to you what you think the best value is, what you think the locks are. It's all the same type of general idea, but a way of going about it and visualizing it throughout the year makes you feel more connected to the actual position that you're in.
A
Well, and the national championship races are a really good example of this because this. This market's been up for a while, so. So the wind totals we're talking about, the markets are changing quickly as people move into them, but this one's been up for a while, so we've got a little better idea of how things are spaced out. And, Ari, if you wanted an idea of how much the sport has changed in the last five years.
B
Yeah, I think I know where you're
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going with this one, because if we'd have done this in 2021, there probably would have been probably two or three teams clustered at the very top.
B
Yeah. Four at most.
A
Yeah. So right now, when I look at this, Notre Dame, Ohio State, and Texas would be your co favorites. Okay. But only 12% of the people have them selected in the market. So essentially, if you have Notre Dame, if you have a stake in Notre Dame, you would get an 8.3x payout if they end up winning the national title, because not that many people have Notre Dame, only 12%. But the thing is, there are five schools with 10% or more, and then you've got Miami at nine, Indiana at eight. Yeah, it goes down from there. But there are a lot of schools that people think have a really legitimate chance of winning.
B
I mean, that's what happens when you, like, spread it out. And I don't know what the number is. I actually haven't really thought about it. Let's do that right now.
A
Okay.
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You know, just point blank, I know that, you know, you might be off by 5 or whatever, but if you had to guess how many teams come into the season, or at least as we're recording this right now, could conceivably win. Not favorites, not teams that you expect to, but could, if things break their way. Are we. Are we bordering 15 to 20 now? Like, is that where we're at in the world?
A
I just counted 12.
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12. Okay.
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And I'll tell you which 12 that. That I thought.
B
Okay.
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Notre Dame, Ohio State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Miami, Indiana, LSU, Texas A& M. Ole Miss, Oklahoma. Okay, I think that's 12. I think that's the 12 I had.
B
Okay. So also, teams like Michigan. I didn't hear. Well, I didn't hear SMU in there.
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I put Michigan in there. You know, let's. All right, so let's go 13 for me.
B
Yeah, I think that, like, what you're saying is true based on the numbers there, but I actually think the number is probably conceivably closer to 20 than we think.
A
Yeah.
B
Of teams that could get hot or teams that could turn a corner and like that doesn't even take into account like some of the weird teams that are kind of on the. Not weird, but like on the. Adjacent to the playoff. Like byu. Like do we think they can win the national championship? I mean, I'm not sure I'm there.
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Do you think they can get through
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the, the, through the playoffs? Yeah, but I didn't hear USC there.
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Well, if I'm going to say Michigan, I should say usc.
B
Right.
A
So, so yeah, and I think you're right. I think it's, it's probably 15 to 20 is probably the realistic number.
B
And the realistic number in 2018 was four.
A
Yeah.
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Like legitimately I wouldn't even have had a conversation. There was a list of teams.
A
It was Alabama and Clemson would have been the first two. Ohio State would have been on the list and Georgia would have been.
B
And it wouldn't have been based on helmets. I think people, you know, think that this is a helmet discussion. Andy. It's not. You know what it would have been on a. What I would have looked at, you know, exactly what I would have looked at. How many five star players do you
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have on your team back. How much experience do they have right now?
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And that's it. And then, and like, honestly it was infallible for 20 years now. Heck, I don't even know like if there's even a benchmark to even gauge that anymore. Yeah, like it used to just be in the data. The data is still there and I think the data is still valuable. But now there's so many different things occurring. Like which, which team got the, the left guard in the portal that no one wrote about. That is actually just an ass kicker.
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Yeah.
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You know that, that'll be a captain for your team. I, I just keep thinking about Indiana and I don't know if that was unique or that was the norm, but because it happened, it means things are possible that have never been possible before. And I think that'll be reflected in those numbers on Polymarket, but also in the way that we do our show this year.
A
Well, and let's talk about win, win totals and how that works because I think Indiana is probably a good place to start. Indiana is a team that we know has lost a lot from the national championship team that we saw last year. But they also went out in the portal and they got Josh Hoover and they got Nick Marsh and they've got good players coming back who were on that national champion. Like their, their left tackle didn't go anywhere. Charlie Becker didn't go anywhere. Yeah, like They've got some continuity there that I think people are probably discounting.
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The left tackle, Carter Smith is the best tackle in the country. It's not just he's coming back. He's literally one of the best players in the country. I think Charlie Becker, you would say, with a straight face as a top five receiver in college football this year. I don't know if anybody would even push back on that, given.
A
I don't know if he's going to be the top one receiver on Indiana.
B
No, I know.
A
But they're hoping to get out of.
B
It's possible they have two. Well, I did. I ranked. I ranked the top 10 receivers in the middle of the summer and I had both in the top 10. So, you know, Andrew Marsh was a highly production Michigan. Yeah. Andrew.
A
Nick Marsh at Indiana.
B
That's going to happen all year.
A
Yeah.
B
By the way, I don't know, it's like as I actually wrote about Bryce Underwood this morning and had Andrew Marsh's name in that story. They've got the same last name. They're both in the state of Michigan, same conference rivals.
A
Nick Marsh was at Michigan State, now he's at Indiana.
B
Yeah. Nick Marsh.
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Yeah.
B
Is going to be a very good player because he's just had two full years of great production, like. So the question, I guess, with. With Indiana is the Signetti factor. The thing that I think that most people came to appreciate about Indiana a year ago, Andy, is that it was a team that. That made very few, if any, mistakes.
A
Right.
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And I know that they had good players. Obviously, Fernando Mendoza won the Heisman. Fernando Mendoza went on to be the number one overall pick in the draft. And I actually think he's going to be a great NFL player. But the way that that team operated from top to bottom, all 22 guys on both sides of the ball, and it didn't matter which one was on the field. It felt like they attacked the ball, they arrived at the football on defense, they moved the ball effortlessly down the field and they just didn't make boneheaded mistakes like. I don't know. Is that a talent in your mind, from a coaching perspective, to be able to get your team to play that
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way, or was that a remarkable group of players? Just curtsy. Nettie, remember?
B
Yeah. Same staff. Yeah.
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For about 10 years. So Mike Shanahan, the offensive coordinator, Brian Haynes, the defensive coordinator are back. And usually when you have a team like they've had the last two years, you lose a coordinator to a head coaching job.
B
Yeah.
A
And I'm sure they're going to eventually, but they haven't yet and I think that's what's interesting. So I'm looking at the, the Win Total markets that Polymarket put up and it's, it's a little, probably a little bit different than what you're used to. There's five different markets that you can work with. Yes, basically seven and a half plus, eight and a half plus, nine and a half plus, ten and a half plus, eleven and a half plus. And I think the, the number that we should look, look at is the one in the middle. That's probably the one that's going to draw everybody's eye the Most. And so nine and a half plus. So another 10 win season for Indiana, which obviously they've done both years under Kurt Signetti, but I would argue that the Big Ten road is harder this year than it was the previous two.
B
I would agree.
A
They, they get, they're at Nebraska and then Ohio State in consecutive weeks and then the following week at Michigan. So like that's a, that's a trio of games that's very tough. They play USC and Washington in consecutive weeks in November. So. But that said, are you doubting Kurt Signetti's ability to win 10 games again when he did it, coming off, what, three and nine? Yeah, he took him over in 2024.
B
So I have a really hard time with being hyperbolic. You know this about.
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Oh yeah, yeah.
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And also a prisoner of the moment. When I think about my career covering college football in teams that played the same way that Indiana played last year, which was efficient and mistake free. I think of Nick Saban, I think of the Alabama teams because I think the greatest achievement in college football that I've seen in my lifetime, though it might be in Curse and Eddie. And what they did last year was how Nick Saban managed to get his teams who won championships every other year to play like they've never won anything.
A
Yeah, there was a difference though. There's a difference between those Saban teams and the Signetti teams in terms of raw material for sure.
B
But I also think that, you know, I've seen complacency firsthand. Like I covered the 2015 Ohio State team and they were already. Well, we won the title. We're in the league now. To get people to be foaming at the mouth before games when they've won three national championships in the last six years or whatever I thought was remarkable. Is that a trait that Kurt Signetti can, that we can bank on with Signetti like, like last year Was it a remarkable set of players that bought into the system that came with him from JMU and played that way, or is he going to be able to get his team? They might not be as talented. They might not have as much upside from year to year. I don't know. Maybe this team does.
A
Remember, they didn't, they didn't change that much through the portal this year.
B
Right.
A
They were like your, your more established programs like Georgia or Ohio State where they didn't take that many transfers. They didn't lose that many transfers.
B
So as we look through this, I see two very tough stretches on Indiana schedule. The three game stretch that you mentioned at Nebraska, at home, at Ohio State and at Michigan. Pretty tough. And that's all in. No, in October. And then of course the two game stretch against USC and Washington. Can they get through both of those stretches, only losing once? I think that the answer to that question is probably yes.
A
Yeah, I do. I do too. So I feel pretty good about that. Let us move to the team that Indiana beat in the playoff last year because this is one of the most interesting ones to me is Alabama because we don't know who they're going to start at quarterback. We know that they couldn't run the ball at all last year. My feeling on them is if they run the ball even halfway decent, they're a playoff team. So.
B
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A
Where do they land?
B
Now?
A
If we look at the markets 6 and a half through 10 and a half, the one in the middle is 8 and a half. And basically right now and again, when you look at this, it'll look different. Cause these are constantly moving. I'm looking at it right now. 76% of the people have shares in 8 and a half plus wins. So the 76% of the people who have an 8 and a half plus win share said yes, they will win that as opposed to no.
B
Well, the one thing I wanted to say before we go all the way into Alabama is that the thing that's cool about this app, polymarket, is that you can pick from a variety of different win totals. And the cool thing about it is
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if you can pick yes or no on each one.
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Yes or no. Now obviously your investment and your return will vary based on how low that number is. If you pick a lower number, your return will be lower.
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You go really short on a team. If you think a team is going to be an utter disaster, you can go really short. You can find the lowest win total and you can hit. No, you could take payout, obviously will be high for that because not many people are going to be on your side of that one.
B
Yes. Like you could take a position in Iowa to win more than five and a half games for $5 and win four cents if you want to. That's your prerogative. We're not going to tell you how to do that. But I do think that Alabama is an interesting case study of where you would choose to go. Because I think there's such a wild card. I don't know, Andy, what you think, but Alabama, I feel like people are down on right now. I think everybody's come around to the idea that this team is probably going to be solid but not great. Is that a fair assessment?
A
I think that's where I think that's where they're at. I think the middle win total being 8 and a half feels about right there. The question is, do they get hot? Remember they got hot last season during a very difficult stretch of the season and we were like, this team can win the national title title.
B
They did get hot. Yeah.
A
And so they have a. They have a similar stretch this season where if they were to go three and oh. In this stretch, if you had, you know, the. The ten and a half win. The ten and a half plus win total right now.
B
Yeah.
A
If they were to go 3:0 in this stretch, your shares would be worth quite a bit more.
B
Yeah, I'm looking at a four game stretch here, Andy, from October 10th and November.
A
Well, you're missing a bye week. So. So October 10th, Georgia comes to Tuscaloosa. October 17th, Bama goes to Neal and stadium. Bama has not won at neyland Stadium since 2020. October 24, Texas A& M comes to Tuscaloosa. Bye week, Bama goes to Baton Rouge. And remember, Bama's one three in a row against lsu.
B
Yeah, you do. You separate the bye week and I think that makes sense. You get a week to prepare. I love that your reward for playing Georgia at Tennessee and Texas A and M is a week off before you have to go to lsu. But here's the thing that I will say that I believe that the SEC win totals in general will be the hardest to pass before the season. I don't know. I feel like I have a pretty solid grasp of how the Big ten is going to shape up and look when it comes to the sec. And I struggle with this when filling out my bracket. I don't know if you ran into the same thing, which is who is going to make the playoff and then if they make the playoff, what's their seating? Because you don't know who's going to jump out and bite you. Right. So like this is.
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Can I give you the two games I. That I think that are the key
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to this on Alabama schedule? Yeah.
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Kentucky and South Carolina. I agree with you at Kentucky, week two, South Carolina comes to Tuscaloosa, week four. Those are the. If you lose one of those, you're probably going under that. Eight and a half.
B
Yes. You want to get the four and oh, and you have Florida State there as well. And we are fairly certain that they're going to be meh. But.
A
Well, right. This team should be five and oh. Going to the Georgia game.
B
Yes.
A
Because then it gets really gnarly after that and then. And then. Yeah, whatever happens, happens. But if. If you're going to be a playoff team and I realized they made the playoff last year after losing to Florida State right away, but it took them having a pretty Herculean. Yeah, that was September, early October.
B
That was like a really, really impressive run and it completely changed the way that we viewed Bama. And there's another Wild card game in here too. And I don't know if you would call it wild card because it's a rivalry, but you know, they have that tough stretch in, you know, early October to mid November and then they play at home against Auburn. And I don't know about you, Andy, but what are your views of Auburn?
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You know, we can't really just gloss over at Vanderbilt anymore either.
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Not, not glossing over it.
A
Yeah.
B
But I, but I feel like Auburn, the first time in the rivalry. Alex Golish on the road under in this staff and this.
A
Yeah.
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Byron Brown, like, I don't know what to think.
A
It's in Tuscaloosa, though. And the thing is, Alabama has been very good against Auburn in Tuscaloosa. Yeah, it's. It seems to be the Jordan Hare games, the ones that really get weird. So that one. That's why I didn't really.
B
Yeah, that's true.
A
Go with that one. But yeah, I'm fascinated by this. I just think they're one of the most interesting teams in college football this year. Caitlin Deborah is fine. They just extended him. Yeah, I don't think it would have to be an utter disaster. It's not going to be an utter disaster. They're going to be a good team. It's just a matter of how good are we talking.
B
I just think that there are. There. There's a group of wild card teams in the SEC this year.
A
Oh, who, who's. And who's your other wild card?
B
My.
A
I want to see their win total.
B
Okay. Well, first of all, I just wanted to make. Finish this point real quick. Alabama's got three of them.
A
Okay.
B
They have Kentucky, I think, as a wild card team. I think South Carolina is a wild card team and they have those in the first month of the season. I think Auburn's a wild card team.
A
I think you're right.
B
So if you don't. So when picking win totals, it's. It's difficult because you're not quite sure where you're going to land when you're playing those wild card teams. So we can go through some of the other wild card teams if you want. I think Florida's a wild card team.
A
What about Auburn?
B
I think Auburn's a wild card.
A
Just mentioned them.
B
Yes.
A
So I mentioned this on the show, but it still blows my mind. The last time Auburn finished a season over.500 was Gus's last season in 2020. Yeah, that doesn't seem right because it seems like they've been talented enough at times to be better than that. And they just haven't. So, like, I look at the. I look at the totals and so you can choose. You got five choices here. 4 and a half, 5 and a half, 6 and a half, 7 and a half, 8 and a half, 6 and a Half plus is the one that seems to be the one the eye moves toward. That's your. You're definitely going to finish over.500. You go seven and five, you could lose a bowl game, still finish over 500. And I think that's. That's a legitimate question for Auburn this year. That. Because it's funny, last year when I got really over my skis and thought Auburn was going to be really good. Sorry about that, guys. The Auburn fans came in and said, do you remember the last time we finished above.500? Do you remember that? And I was like, yeah, it was just, oh, wait, no. Oh, oh.
B
We're also getting old, Andy. The time is going faster.
A
That's true. But I think Auburn fans who are used to the roller coaster, they've been through this, they will look at this and say, yeah, we'd love, love if this team's good. They win nine, 10 games. It's awesome. But. But we'll take seven. We'll take seven as a sign of progress.
B
I mean, part of the roller coaster aspect of it is that you do have to go back up at some point. I mean, it's been a long time.
A
Yeah.
B
Since they've gone that, you know, that, that chunk, chunk, chunk, chunk, chunk up the. You know, and who knows? But Byron Brown is maybe the most wild card player there is in this conference on a wild card game.
A
If he puts up the numbers that are similar to what he put up in the American, which is over 3,000 yards passing, over 1,000 yards rushing last year, they're going to be awesome.
B
For sure.
A
Like, they just are. Because the defense is probably pretty good with DJ Durkin coming back. And now look, it is obviously a step up in competition, but again, the last time we saw Byron Brown in an SEC stadium against an SEC team, he won. He won. Now, they didn't put up massive numbers, but they won.
B
He has the physical makeup that I'm obsessed with now. I know that we spent a lot of time in the off season discussing his throwing motion, but if he is the type of X factor who can rush for 160 yards in a game where the offense isn't really moving that well.
A
Yeah.
B
And he can change it. And he can be physical and big and get crucial third downs on third and Two, like, I think that that is a massive difference between what Auburn struggled with last year, which was ineptitude on the offensive side of the ball with a really solid defense. Like we referred to them last year as the best bad team in college football. Now if you added a player like that was 70%, even 65% as good as Cam Newton was with the same makeup. Like I think that some of those close games they lost last year are actually wins. So I can actually buy the notion that Auburn is a 7 to 8 win team this year. And I think that it's possible that their quarterback, who is just hard to tackle, might be the difference in some of those games.
A
Now game one is against a guy that Byron Brown played against last year. DJ Lagway will be leading Baylor into Auburn.
B
I love the sport.
A
It's so strange. So that one is a tricky one because again, we don't know what Auburn is going to look like. We can assume because we watched USF last year that offensively they will not need a lot of time to gel together that they should be able to look like they're supposed to look right off the bat. The question I have is what does Baylor look like right off the bat?
B
That's also a very interesting question because
A
that could be a challenge. And then remember week three, you get Florida coming in and that is John Sumrall who I think the majority of Auburn fans thought was going to wind up being their coach when Hugh Freeze got fired. And then it all worked out differently where Summerall takes the Florida job and then Golish takes the Auburn job. So Auburn schedule is very difficult. You know, we mentioned Florida coming in week three, Vandy comes in week four. That that's been a challenge for Auburn lately. And then at Tennessee, bye week at Georgia, LSU at Ole Miss. Like this schedule is, you know, they
B
don't have a no doubt about. They have one no doubt about it when.
A
Yeah, this schedule is nasty.
B
Like before November 7th, they're going to
A
have to like, they're going to have to be legit good to get to the seven win mark.
B
Yes. And I think that if they get to the seven win mark, you'll be able to see that they're legit. Good. I also wanted to make an aside here about the Baylor game. The fact that this game's at 2:30 on Saturday, September 5th seems wrong to me. This says Friday night 4th written all over.
A
It was a Friday night game last year.
B
I know.
A
But the thing is all the games in week one suck so much that this Got this. Got bumped to a really prime position.
B
But that like, doesn't that like the, the appetizer to the weekend? That's what that feels like to me. But I'm excited to see that and I am. You know, we know we're talking about Auburn here, but I am excited to see DJ Lagway and what that may or may not look like in, in Waco.
A
All right. You mentioned another wild card in the sec and that's Florida.
B
Florida.
A
Fascinating.
B
I mean everybody that has a first year head coach. Yeah, I mean it's just. And they're in. The rosters are so different, but Florida, let's lock on them.
A
Right. But I do feel like the, the optimism around Florida is higher than the optimism around Auburn by just a shade. And I don't really understand why.
B
I can tell you why.
A
Okay, tell me why.
B
Aura.
A
That's it.
B
John Sumrall has aura.
A
Well, John Sumrall is funnier than Alex Golish. Is that really?
B
I got a pedicure yesterday. Did you see that?
A
Because of John Sumrall?
B
Well, just. We were going to go anyway, but it did make me think of it. But I don't know because the thing that's interesting is that quarter, the quarterback position, in terms of excitement, are you more excited to see whoever wins the Florida job? Are you excited to see Byron Brown? Byron Brown, like so that's what's. So usually the quarterback position is what drives.
A
Also. I'm pretty sure I know what Auburn's offensive line is going to look like because some of it's from usf. Well, they know what. There's enough guys on that offense that have played in it to know now, like Florida, there are guys. If Aaron Filo wins the job at quarterback, he played Buster Faulkner's offense before Eric Singleton Jr. The receiver has played in that offense before. The center has played in that offense before. Harpering, the tight end has played in that offense before. So there, there are pieces of it.
B
Well, the pieces of it for Florida is that they might have one of the best receiver rooms in the country.
A
Well, and that's, that's the other part. What, what I think is driving the optimism for Florida is they kept guys. Summerall came in and kept guys from the Napier roster that are potentially really good. You know, Jaden Baugh, Jaden Woods, Dallas Wilson, Vernell Brown iii. These are people who have either shown flashes in the games we've seen them or like LJ McRae was a five star recruit, just hasn't quite had a chance to really show he got hurt last year. So I think it's more roster, more like old school roster based.
B
And I think that that's fair because I think that the one thing that we could probably say about Florida is that they'll at least be at the. But at the baseline functional at quarterback. Is that a fair assumption that they'll be functional because they have two options?
A
No, I feel like because I Philo comes in hand picked around the offense. If it winds up being Tramell Jones, it is because he was won the
B
job a lot better. Yeah.
A
And I don't like that's why I think it's probably still going to be Philo because I don't know that Jones is going to be able to do enough to overtake.
B
But I love the fact that that Tramell Jones exists breathing down his neck every day.
A
Yeah.
B
And if they can figure out their offensive line, which is their biggest question mark, you know they're going to run the ball hard. Jaden Baugh is maybe the best running back. I mean he's in the conversation. I know that there's some other.
A
Yeah, we got Ahmad Hardy, key one Lacey.
B
There's some guys in the SEC in
A
the back, but also the two guys in Michigan.
B
Yeah, the two guys in Michigan.
A
So.
B
But the one thing is, is that the fact that his name would even come up in the conversation is all you need at running back. And the thing that I've loved about him is that he popped the second he carried the ball as a freshman. You knew that guy had it. And then of course with those three receivers that you just mentioned, you know how I feel about big five stars. Dallas Wilson was hurt last year. I got a lot of excitement.
A
The very brief time he did play. He looked pretty good.
B
Changes the game. We know for a fact that Eric Singleton can take a screen 80 yards for a touchdown.
A
And Vernell did that to you in the video game.
B
You did. It was the like we played the video game and Andy, I was like Eric Singleton.
A
Yeah, we. We're playing the Florida Auburn game and
B
then of course Vernell Brown is consistent as hell. So like I do think that when you think about the makeup of it and their defensive line I think is going to be very good. Right. So Florida does have the pieces and then of course the swag like so you can't.
A
For them, seven and a half plus is the one that the eye moves toward. And I got to tell you, I think 8 and 4 Florida fans would grumble a little bit if I said that now that you'd be happy with 8 and 4. You'd be happy with 8 and 4. After what you've, what you've been through the last few years, you'd be happy with 8 and 4. Especially with this schedule.
B
I can't even tell whose schedule's harder.
A
They both seem, they're both very hard. Florida and Auburn have very hard schedules. So Florida opens SEC play at Auburn. Week 3, Week 4 Ole Miss comes to Gainesville fresh off the LSU game. Then Florida goes to Missouri. That's not going to be easy. South Carolina comes to Gainesville at Texas, the Georgia game, which would be in Atlanta, which is in Atlanta this year because the stadium in Jacksonville and then Oklahoma comes to Gainesville, then they go to Lexington. Like it is not going to be
B
easy and you know, I'm buying Kentucky hype.
A
Yeah.
B
The one thing that is different about
A
like if they're 8 and 4 against the schedule, they've done really well. And a lot of remember what we talked about Nebraska last week where we said there's a certain threshold like if Nebraska can win eight, they can win 10 because it means they're capable of winning games that we just didn't think they could win before Floor is the same way if they could win eight. But the weird thing is we saw that with Napier, like this team beat Texas last year.
B
Yeah. I mean we always talk about crossroad games. I mean the fact that Florida plays Auburn on September 19th on the road, that seems like kind of like a which direction are these two teams going
A
in type of game which but what's funny is it might not, it might not at all.
B
It just seems like that right now. But Andy, the thing that's different about Florida schedule from Auburns is they have two games and I know that I don't want to make the mistake of just taking for granted and in state G6 team coming into the swamp after what happened after you yeah. They have two games against teams they should beat out of the gate and they can get into mid to late September two and oh feeling out who they are a little bit like Auburn's got a rough go of it out of the gate and you know I think that that Baylor is going to be very hungry and Dave Aranta's job, it's just not an easy game. So yes, I, I, yeah, let's play
A
the Florida ready sooner they do Florida. Florida has Runway and I think that's why Florida can can ease into the quarterback decision. I think you're going to get a chance to See them both play a little bit. And then you will have a very good idea. If you're John Summerall and Buster Faulkner going into the Auburn game, which one you want to go with.
B
Okay, So I want you to be Optimistic Andy right now.
A
Okay?
B
And let's go through Florida.
A
Let me put some sunshine up. All right, let's go.
B
We're going to. We're going to play two Optimistic Florida Andy and pessimistic Florida.
A
Okay.
B
First, let's do optimistic, right? Let's go. Let's do it. Everything's going to be great. Let's go through their schedule. I'm going to count on my fingers. Who you think
A
I'm optimistic? Okay. Yeah. Yeah.
B
FAU win Campbell.
A
All those camels ain't got nothing.
B
At Auburn win Ole Miss.
A
Well, I mean, they. They burned all their energy against lsu. They're trying to beat Lane Kiffin. Okay.
B
Don't be too optimistic.
A
Florida win.
B
Really?
A
Okay. Missouri Como's been a house of horrors for Florida. Even Optimistic Andy say yeah.
B
Okay. So Optimistic Andy gives him a win against Ole Miss and a loss at Missouri. That's wild. Okay. Optimistic Andy. South Carolina. Optimistic Andy at Texas beat him last year, didn't they? They sure did.
A
Listen, you can beat them last year with Billy Napier coaching them. You can beat them this year with John Sumrall coaching, right?
B
I think so.
A
Okay. How are we doing?
B
The game was. So you're taking a win at Texas?
A
I am.
B
Okay, well, then I guess we're going over. Guys, he's overly optimistic. Georgia the next week, that's a loss.
A
If you beat Texas, you're going to. Well, I mean, they got a bye week, but yeah.
B
Oklahoma
A
loss.
B
Okay. At Kentucky win. Okay.
A
It's not because of Will Stein. It's because of former Kentucky linebacker John Sumrall.
B
So Vanderbilt win. Okay. At Florida State. So that's overly optimistic Andy, I think that you gave him nine wins.
A
Ooh, there you go.
B
I would probably take one away. Ole Miss and Texas, if those two are wins.
A
Pessimistic Andy, are you ready?
B
Well, yes, but I do think that Optimistic Andy probably gets them at eight wins if you take one away.
A
I don't need to take one away.
B
You gave them wins against Ole Miss in Texas.
A
I gave them a loss at Missouri and a home lost Oklahoma.
B
Okay, so you're over. Let's do pessimistic Andy now.
A
Okay.
B
Fau.
A
When?
B
I guess Campbell.
A
When?
B
Auburn.
A
Oh, my God. Jordan here. There's some days you just. It doesn't matter. Nobody can win there.
B
Loss Ole Miss loss at Missouri, loss. At home against South Carolina, win. Okay. At Texas, loss. Georgia loss.
A
Oklahoma, Napier style win
B
at Kentucky, loss. Vanderbilt, Florida State win. So six. So if that's your win, that's still better. That's it. That's a pretty. That's. So there was a range of the ways things can go here. I actually think that I'm going to average those two together and I think
A
that like seven was probably seven and five. Well, and here. And here we sit right on the horns of a trading dilemma on polymarket.
B
Yeah, I have a hard time with. With four games. Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia, Oklahoma, if they could win one or optimistically two of those games. Like, I think that their schedule will probably be decided with those four. Now that doesn't mean they can't jump out and lose that Auburn or lose at home at Vanderbilt or even, hell go on the road to Kentucky. I don't know. But I think that when you talk about record and figuring out how you want to feel about your first year coach, I think that the, the grading rubric is going to reside in those four games.
A
I think you're right about that. And really you're looking for a way they play. You're looking for do they have 11 men on the field goal block team every time. I realize that seems rudimentary, but it
B
does seem kind of weird.
A
That was an issue at Florida for a while.
B
Talk about that in the same episode where I just got done saying Kurt Zagdetti is the greatest game gift to fundamental based.
A
But they do. But, but that's why they're so successful. And you know, if John Summerall's teams play smart like that, then they will win more games. Obviously. I mean, that, that was Florida's issue was not talent last year.
B
Yeah.
A
They were just poorly organized. So I do think that could be a big difference and we'll. We'll find out because again, this schedule is gnarly and there's a lot of different ways this can go.
B
And I don't want to do this. Okay. I want to do this.
A
Okay.
B
August 3rd, as we're recording this.
A
All right.
B
Optimistic Andy's team could make the playoff.
A
Texas, you can make the playoffs. There's no question about that.
B
That's what I was like. You're going on the road and winning at Texas. That might be.
A
Yeah, they beat Texas last year. They gave Ole Miss hell.
B
Yeah.
A
With an interim staff last year.
B
I'm very.
A
For three and a half quarters.
B
I know for a fact with the bracket that Windshield is going out, by the way. You're working on it now.
A
Yeah, I believe it's. It's coming out. Coming out on Tuesday.
B
It's coming out to tomorrow. So what I'm very curious to see, because I have not seen what yours is going to look like, is that the teams that I picked, the SEC teams that everybody's picking, doesn't leave any room for optimistic Andy Florida.
A
Well, I also, yeah, I don't believe I have five SEC teams on my bracket. I believe I have four SEC and, and four Big Ten.
B
Mine was five sec, three Big Ten this year. So we'll see. We'll see how it actually plays out. But the fact is, is that I think that there is going to be. We can do optimistic Andy for other teams too, but there will be an optimistic Andy team that actually happens.
A
Yeah.
B
And I just don't know who it's going to be.
A
Can we go to the Big Ten?
B
Sure.
A
Let me go to the team I actually feel very optimistic about.
B
Yeah, let's do it.
A
The Michigan Wolverines.
B
Okay. Yeah.
A
So this is a team that won nine games last year amidst some of the worst circumstances imaginable. Now that we know what's going on or what was all going on behind the scenes, like how this team even managed to show up on Saturdays and look somewhat competent is amazing. They won nine games. They should be more competently coached. They should be more talented. So I'm looking at this, and I know part of this is schedule based, but I'm looking at the markets on Polymarket right now. So you go six and a half, seven and a half, eight and a half, nine and a half, ten and a half. So the one we're looking at is eight, is eight and a half. I would be very optimistic. Optimistic Andy would be very optimistic about eight and a half plus. I think Optimistic Andy would be very optimistic about nine and a half plus.
B
Yeah. We're going to find out very soon into the season what type of team Michigan is because I think we both agree that Oklahoma is going to be a very good team this year. Yes, Michigan is fortunate to get them at home. I don't know that they have to win that game, but I think that we're going to know whether they're equipped.
A
They don't have to. But if you don't win that game, you. You will have to very much earn a playoff berth for sure.
B
The good news for them is that they don't play usc. The bad news for them is that
A
they play Indiana State, Oregon, Ohio State, and this is. This is one of the two games Penn State's got to get up for.
B
That's right.
A
So it will be difficult for them, but again, more competently coached, probably more talented. This is not a team that lost because a lot of times you have a coaching change, guys just pour into the portal. That did not happen for Michigan.
B
Yeah.
A
And they had a couple guys who went in and then came back out and stayed at Michigan.
B
Okay, so let me workshop something. I just filed a column.
A
Okay.
B
I don't know when it's going to run. Hopefully in the next day or so.
A
Yeah.
B
Maybe even by the time the show goes out. But it was. The headline was. Were there actually too high of expectations on Bryce Underwood last year?
A
Yes. He wasn't supposed to play. Like, if we go back to the original. Can we just. Let's turn back time to spring 2025. He was not supposed to play. They got a transfer from Fresno State who was supposed to play. Mikey Keen.
B
He got hurt.
A
He was supposed to play. He got hurt before spring. He got, I believe, was capable of playing by the fall, but, like, by that point, Bryce. And we're taking all the snaps to the ones he gave you a better chance to win.
B
Yeah.
A
So. And by the way, Bryce Underwood at the time did not have a dedicated quarterback coach. He does now.
B
Right. There are two ways of looking at this, Andy. There's the optimistic Andy way, which is the one that you just basically outlined.
A
That's just rational, neutral Andy right there that. That happened.
B
Yes. Well, the favorable way is he was a true freshman. They won nine games.
A
Yeah.
B
Wasn't supposed to be playing.
A
Schedule's harder this year, though.
B
Also, Sharon Moore, all those different things.
A
Poor choices all around by Sharon Moore on and off the field.
B
Here's the brutal way.
A
Okay.
B
Underwood signed a $12 million deal worth $3 million a year. In the three biggest games on Michigan's schedule last year, all of which were losses, Oklahoma, USC and Ohio State, he totaled, for 412 passing yards, 137.3 per game. Now, maybe that's just what a freshman's going to do, but a lot of those games were in the second half of the season.
A
Yep.
B
So do you. And it's also become quite in vogue to kind of crap on him this off season. I don't know if you've noticed this, but a lot of people. I put him number seven on my list of Big Ten quarterbacks, and people thought that I was being a recruiting
A
homer because even the Michigan fans are
B
probably like, I don't know about Michigan fans, but people are like, you know, you working on three. So of course you're not going to like, admit when you have a miss of a. Of a ranking, it's like. So I do think that there is at least a 20% reason to be a little wary.
A
Okay. Here's why I'm optimistic, Andy, about this.
B
Okay.
A
We know the defense is going to be good.
B
Yes.
A
John Henry Daly now added to that defense, now healthy.
B
Yes.
A
One of the best pass rushers in the country.
B
Yep.
A
Plus all of the talent they already had.
B
Yes.
A
They're going to be able to run the ball.
B
Maybe the best. One of the top five best running back duos in the country.
A
Yeah. Jordan Marshall, Savion Heider, the freshman comes
B
in who probably is pretty pissed off he didn't get 2 mil a year.
A
So what I gotta. Here's the thing. What did Kurt Signetti say when he got asked about Josh Hoover, their transfer quarterback?
B
Yes. What did you say? He said, we're not going to ask him to do as much as we had to last year. We're going to put defense and offense around him.
A
He said he's going to get a quarterbacks, two best friends, a great defense
B
and a running game. Yeah. And he kind of reiterated that at Big Ten media day this week.
A
So you're going to have Bryce Underwood not being thrown into a situation that he probably wasn't ready for, being more competently coached with a running game, with a defense.
B
And even if you take away the Sharon Moore stuff.
A
Yeah.
B
Like, let's just pretend that didn't happen.
A
Yeah.
B
Kyle Whittingham is probably still a better coach.
A
Right.
B
Right.
A
So we talk about four choices by Sharon Moore. One of the choices that he did make was that originally didn't plan to play Bryce Underwood.
B
Yeah.
A
So I think if you look at it from that lens, that he did fine given the circumstances. Now he has to level up now. He's got to earn the money.
B
There also is a little bit of the Arch Manning disease here, too.
A
Yeah.
B
Now, obviously, much different circumstances.
A
His dad isn't a. Oh, I had one Tommy Carr. I don't think it was an accident. We heard all those really nice things about Tommy Carr in the spring. Yeah, maybe, Tom, because remember, Tommy Carr's brother's really good. Maybe that the car boys are just.
B
Maybe there's something in the water in the car household.
A
So just remember, if it doesn't work out, they might have another option.
B
Based on everything that Whittingham said in Chicago, it seems Very clear who the number one guy is.
A
Oh, no, no. I'm going into controversy, but what I'm saying is.
B
But somebody said he had a short leash. There was a report that said that Underwood had a. I don't know how much you buy into that crap, but everyone has a short leash. By the way, if you suck, you're going to get pulled out of the game. But I don't know how much. If Tommy Carr comes into the picture, I'm not sure. I'm feeling pretty good about the over. That's not something that would be comforting to me. But what I do know is, is that of all the pieces that they have around him, plus the defense, if you thought he was poor last year or below average based on your expectations, they still got the nine wins. Yeah. Tougher schedule this year. I think that getting to nine wins is probably a pretty good position to take. But the Bryce Underwood thing is the Arch Manning thing a little bit. People are still catching up to the fat freshman unproven contract. The fact that he left LSU and the perception is that he did so to get paid more.
A
Right.
B
And everybody crowning him as one of the next great things and it feels like people want him to fail. And I think part of that comes into analysis and I don't think that's fair. So I am probably more on the optimistic side with this, which is thrown into early, not according to plan, coaching inconsistencies. And then you bring in and I'm a huge Kyle Whittingham guy, like consistency.
A
What is Kyle Whittingham like? If we're talking about the hallmark of Kyle Whittingham teams through the years at
B
Utah, what were the hard nosed, incompetent,
A
great, competent line of scrimmage play? What is the most horrible thing in, in football? Like what. What almost what. What raises your floor more than anything else?
B
Those two things.
A
Yes.
B
Lines, line proficiency. Now, I don't know how much that travel, like you said, travels. I think personality travels, but personnel doesn't. The good thing for him is that
A
Michigan, they already had great personnel. Yeah. Like that wasn't a problem.
B
So. And they brought in one of the best edge rushers in the country. If, if he can be back to
A
him, I am, I am optimistic about Michigan. The only, the only part that's hard is there are other really good teams in the Big Ten. That's it. Oregon's really good. Indiana is really good. Ohio State's really good. Penn State's going to be good. Like Matt Campbell and the Penn State Cyclones that everyone jokingly calls them, like they're going to come in and be very confident and good right away. So Michigan's going to be challenged quite a bit.
B
They sure will. Now, now the question that you. I think I would just like simplify it to this is is it possible for him to go to Ohio State at the end of year and throw for 63 yards again? Because he cannot be that.
A
No, he hasn't.
B
Ohio State had a legendary defense last year. I'm not saying that it was only because he stinks.
A
He has to be.
B
But the offense has to be in a place that it is so good that that's an impossibility. But yes, listen, two of the first four games are Oklahoma and Iowa. They're lucky to get both of them at home. I think that we're gonna figure out really soon. But Iowa at Minnesota, Penn State, Indiana, all in a row.
A
Yeah.
B
Is not the easiest. No schedule to.
A
Oh, actually, can I, can I run a stat line by you?
B
Sure.
A
I just, you know, just want to run this one little.
B
I see what's on his iPad and I think I know what's coming.
A
16 of 20 for 148 passing yards and one touchdown.
B
Yes.
A
What is that?
B
That's JJ McCarthy. Stat in or stat line against Ohio State in 2023, the year. The one that three years ago. Yeah.
A
Yeah. So is he going to throw for 136 yards? That might win you the game. It depends on how you run the ball.
B
You know the thing that we haven't mentioned yet that's important to mention is that I think that we would both agree that Bryce Underwood is a more proficient passer than Devin Damp here. Right?
A
Right. Devin Tampere, not as good of a runner, but definitely a better arm.
B
But Whittingham said in Chicago this past week that he expects a lot of what we saw out of Devin Dampier with his legs to be something that we see in Ann Arbor. So I'm very curious what the Bryce Underwood running factor is. He's a big tough kid. If you can. You know we had that mailbag question a month ago about what his stats are. This were like if he runs rushes for a thousand yards, then you can throw for 137 because I don't know what, I don't remember what JJ McCarthy's rushing total was in that game, but that was just in the rivalry. Games are weird but, you know, you just can't be in a position where you're in the third quarter in a two possession game. And it doesn't feel like you can get a first down.
A
JJ only ran for 17 yards.
B
Oh, yeah.
A
So that was a Blake Corum average, 4 yards of carry.
B
Yeah.
A
Alex Orgy came in and ran, had a couple nice runs.
B
So that's a blast from the past.
A
Yeah. Alex Orgy. How about that? Now, I. I'm. I'm excited to see Michigan this year.
B
So, listen, I think I'm reading between the lines here. It seems like you're pretty high on that.
A
Eight and a half plus. I like the plus. Yeah, I like the plus on that. All right. All right. Let's talk about something that did not have great odds as of Friday morning. And then Friday night, everything changed. That's the Protect College Sports Act. We. We talked about it late last week, and going into the end of last week, it seemed very dire for the one college sports bill that actually had a chance to actually have a chance to have any chance at all of passing. And then suddenly things changed on Friday night. We'll talk about something else that happened Friday night in a federal court in Colorado that I don't. I don't know if that necessarily helped push it across the goal line, but I think it probably helped a little bit. So the. The SEC and the Big Ten were not on board with the Protect College Sports Act. We did a thing with Ted Cruz. We brought him on the show when that bill dropped in May. And it was very anti sec in Big 10. The way it was written, basically made so they could never form a super league. Made so they would be heavily encouraged to pull their TV rights with the other leagues. And I got the opposition, like I understood the opposition from the Big Ten, the sec, but they got a little bit back their way from the Senators. There's a little bit of negotiating back and forth. So the SEC in the Big Ten got some things they wanted. And then on Friday night with, I believe, the Big Ten, under the most pressure from Donald Trump, who basically said, hey, look, if you guys don't come on board with this thing, I'm blasting you. I'm sicking all my followers on you. They come around, they say, we will support it. And now there's a chance. Now there's a chance it could be voted on this week in the Senate. If it passes the Senate, it would go to the House, and there was a real chance that this thing could pass. So what do we want to know about it?
B
How it. If it passes, what does it actually.
A
What happens? Okay.
B
Yeah.
A
So what it would do is set up a lot of the things that the schools want and give them not as much of an antitrust exemption as they wanted, but enough to keep some stuff moving and to do some of the things that they want to do. So eligibility, you get five years to play. Five, you get one free transfer. Now, the thing about it is, and I know you're going to say, okay, well, they're just going to sue and they can sue. But I also don't know that this is necessarily the worst thing in the world because you get more than one free transfer if you graduate.
B
Yeah. And people graduate quick.
A
If you graduate, you get more. And I think that part of it, you know, if you think it would change things that dramatically. I'm not sure it necessarily would, but it would make it where you're not a free agent every single year, which I think people feel like is pretty reasonable.
B
I think it's a net positive for the viewer experience.
A
Yeah, I think people consider that reasonable.
B
You can have a conversation about whether that's reasonable for the people who are actually playing the game.
A
But that's like the idea of telling non employees that they have to adhere to non compete. That. That.
B
Yes.
A
I don't really enjoy that. But again, I do think this wouldn't be the be all end all either.
B
Yeah. Because there's always two different avenues of how to view this. It's, do you have what is good for the player itself, what's fair to the player as an American, and what does the viewer prefer? Sometimes those two things don't jive.
A
It doesn't lock down the idea that it can't be challenged.
B
Right.
A
I think that's what the schools originally wanted was something that said, you know, you can't challenge this ever. This will never change.
B
They wanted to make it the NFL.
A
Yeah.
B
Yeah.
A
Well, no, they didn't want to make
B
it the NFL or they like in the. In the sense that they wanted to
A
make it 1995 in college football again.
B
Yeah.
A
The players get paid.
B
I meant in the NFL in the sense that you can't challenge where you're playing.
A
Right. So that part of it I think fans would. Would consider to be a net positive. The salary cap, quote, unquote. Because it's not really. They say there's one now, but there's not really. It would go up. And right now the way it is structured is the cap would be 48 and a half million dollars or so per school, with a significant portion of that being retention. Like you could only spend it to retain your own players. It's Sort of like, you know, the NBA has the Larry Bird exception where you can get more for a guy who was already on your team. Yeah, that sort of thing. Now here's the thing. That 48 and a half million dollars is for your entire athletic program. There are plenty of schools whose football and men's basketball teams will eclipse that this year. I don't think the schools can, can adhere to that. I think they'll keep trying to raise it.
B
Yeah.
A
So it'll be interesting to see how they handle that. One of the last sticking points, and this is one that Ted Cruz went to bat for last week, the Big Ten in the SEC said, oh, you're making it. It's still too easy to circumvent the cap. You're still making it. Where a Nike school can have Nike sign a player to an Nil deal and that's essentially just a pass through. And Ted Cruz at a certain point was like, listen, because what schools do now is each one will have like a multimedia rights company. The two big ones are Learfield and Playfly. And essentially all they do is they say, hey guys, funnel some money to the players through the deals you're making through the ad deals you're making. Because these, that's what Learfield would do is they'd sell the ad. They would guarantee the school a certain amount of money. They'd sell all the sponsorships and then they would kind of split it. But since NIL came into effect and since Rev Share came into effect, what they've done now is they are now the pass through where they'll write the deals and, and they'll say, oh, we got this money for the players. So that would probably be stopped. Well, but a guy, but, but like Jeremiah Smith could still get a Nike deal.
B
Yeah.
A
If he wanted to.
B
I guess. My, this is cool because Andy's like the, the lawyer brainiac and I'm the, I'm the norm normie. But I'm going to ask it just in this way. What will schools do to try to circumvent the cat?
A
It'll be interesting because let's say this thing passes. You're, you are effectively violating a federal law. Now, I don't think they're going to threaten federal funding or anything like that, but they, they will empower the College Sports Commission, which is the, the group that formed after the house settlement. The conference is formed. It is essentially the NCAA by another name. They will say that you can, you're. We're going to cut your, your Rev Share money if you go over,
B
Basically, what I'm trying to say is how does Cody Campbell get neutralized in this?
A
I, I think Texas Tech will spend probably about what they spend now. But that doesn't, that's not necessarily neutralizing and that's saying he's, he's not going to just chuck in more. But I think they will. I think the schools are going to push and you know, this will go by conference. The Big Ten in the SEC will want to raise the cap over and over and over again because they can. The Big 12 and the ACC will not want it to go up.
B
What I'm not understanding is even if a school is able to, through revenue share and through the money that's legal under this bill, pay the 40, whatever million dollars to the roster, what is going to stop a mega booster from creating shell companies or doing anything? Probably give them general to give them real nil.
A
Probably nothing.
B
So then there's no cap.
A
Probably not.
B
Yeah.
A
Because even if there is a cap, they're going to push to raise it.
B
Yeah.
A
They cannot stop themselves.
B
The good news is, is that the cap number that you shared with me right there and the viewers seems to be towards the top end of what people are already paying.
A
So we've talked about this. Like when Steve Sarkeesian says, can you cap space? When he was talking about not resigning Parker Livingston not resigning the running backs, he's saying it somewhat tongue in cheek, but Texas is one of the schools we view as having, quote, unquote, unlimited money. They don't have unlimited money.
B
Yeah.
A
Nobody has unlimited money.
B
Yeah.
A
So there, there is an upper limit. And that's the other thing. Like, they're not going to wind up paying these guys as much as NFL teams pay their players because they don't make as much money as NFL teams make.
B
And the, the iron about it is, is that the cap could be coming in theoretically towards the top end of where it already was going to settle. Naturally.
A
Right.
B
I don't know how much further we were going to go.
A
It's more and more and more, but like, rules. And again, like, this is not a guarantee that this passes the Senate, passes the House and gets signed into law by Donald Trump. It certainly has a much better chance than it had this time last week. But even if it didn't pass, I still, I do think if you just let it go that way, the market would naturally level off.
B
Okay, let's do a new segment called Brainiac Andy and Normie Ari, where I just ask you questions that I know.
A
All right. Fire away. Fire away. Do.
B
If you are a fan of just college football.
A
Okay.
B
And you are somewhat excited about this bill, should the general fan be rooting for this?
A
I think it depends on what you're a fan of. Like, what school are you a fan of? Yeah, that changes things. I think it's interesting because you have that meteorites pooling which we talked about, which they could all sell their rights together if 75% of the FBs agreed to do it. The Big Ten in the SEC do not want to do that. They don't want to share that stuff with the Big Ten, with the Big 12 in the ACC and with the Group of Six, they don't have to do this. If the bill passes, it is voluntary. They don't have to do it. Now, here's the other part of it, though. If the bill passes, they're capping the membership of the power leagues at 19, the big tens at 18. So you can imagine who the 19th would be.
B
Yes.
A
Now for the SEC, you start thinking, okay, would they add two, would they add three? But here's the catch. If you're already in a power league, the bill would require you to operate as an independent for five years before you could move, which would be pretty difficult. Yeah. So that's the other piece of this. Like, if I were Clemson, I would not be happy today.
B
Yeah.
A
From Miami, North Carolina. I'm probably not happy today. But that's another piece where. I don't know if you. If you challenge that.
B
I think.
A
Can. Can you get around it?
B
I don't know if I'm speaking out of turn here. And you have to check me. I think the general fan. If I could simplify it.
A
Yep.
B
Is just looking for rationality and for this to settle down.
A
Right. And not be a lawsuit over.
B
Yeah. They just want it to just be
A
like the thing about this one.
B
Calm.
A
Yeah. And, you know, and the other thing is, like, you can say, well, they're limiting the players income, which they are.
B
Yeah.
A
But the players are making a lot of money. Now the question is, should the schools be given any license to violate a federal law, the Sherman Act.
B
Which they are.
A
Which they currently are. But they would have exemptions if this bill became law. So they. And that's the question. I think if you ask the general public. I'm not talking about if you asked an antitrust lawyer.
B
Yeah.
A
Just ask the general public.
B
Just bill the South Carolina fan.
A
The money that they're making. Now, the general public's going, that's more than fair. I think that's what the general public would say.
B
And I think it is more than fair.
A
Right.
B
So it's a different discussion. I never thought that it wasn't more than fair. I, I get a little bit wary of.
A
Yeah.
B
If someone's worth X, you don't get reaching. I would never want anyone to tell me what I'm worth.
A
Exactly.
B
So I, I don't like to do it to other people.
A
Yeah.
B
But I also understand that, you know, I'm also a big fan of college football and I find it following it to be dysfunctionally insane.
A
Right.
B
And I don't know if this bill
A
in ACT you have is, is less transferring, but still a lot of transferring.
B
Yeah.
A
So there'd still be free agency.
B
Now, does less transferring turn into different ways of allocating money towards high school players? And for sure. Does this reignite the recruiting realm?
A
You and I are going to the personnel symposium here in Nashville.
B
Yes.
A
Today where the college football personnel people all get together and talk. I bet if we ask those people, do you what, what is your plan for now and what is your plan for if this bill passes? It's different for sure because it will, it would change that. And so we'll see what happens. But the, the, as we record this right around noon Eastern time on Monday, the expectation is that this will get to the Senate floor for a vote sometime this week, which, by the way,
B
is much different than what we thought on Friday morning.
A
And they don't schedule something for a vote unless they think they have the votes to pass it. And remember, it's the Senate, So you need 60 to break the filibuster. They feel confident, at least as of Monday morning, that they've got more than 60 votes.
B
Yeah, very. I think when and if this happens later in the week, we have to have a real discussion of what is it going to be like to be a fan on Friday. Like, like explaining people what they're looking at now. Well.
A
And yeah, we still got to do a little Schoolhouse Rock because then we got to get through the House of Representatives.
B
Yeah. Well, you can, you can sing it
A
for them and handicap that one as well.
B
So my, my buddy flew all the way from Scottsdale, Arizona to hear you sing that song.
A
I'm just a bill on the hill, buddy. We'll talk about this more as the week goes on, though, because, you know, again, we, we have not talked about much of it on this show. We talk about it all the time. My other show, the, the College Sports Inquirer on Yahoo. Because that audience is a little Wonkier.
B
That's the Brainiac show.
A
Yeah. Than this audience. But now it is a realistic possibility. Is something to talk about. And we can talk about what real world applications it would have if it actually happened. So there's, there's a lot to it. There's the Lane Kiffin provision. We, we didn't even get into that.
B
Yeah.
A
That's another thing we can talk about. If it gets closer to passage, we can break down all the different aspects.
B
What would you. Before we go on to the next thing, what would you. What do you think the odds are? Let's just make it a poly market thing. Will this pass? Yes. What's your percentage?
A
So I, I was saying 15%. Yes. For most of the last few months. Will it pass the Senate?
B
I mean, all the way through where this turns into how college football runs.
A
So now I'm going to go 50%. Yes.
B
Okay. Which is wild improvement in the last four days. So.
A
Yeah. Because it's, you know, if the Senate passes it, I imagine there will be people in the House of Representatives who oppose it. But this is also something that Donald Trump would like to happen. He would consider a legislative win. So if he tells the Republicans in the House, who are the majority vote for this, there's a real good chance it'll pass.
B
Okay.
A
So that's where they're at. Big. Like this is like Eric Schmidt, the senator from Missouri who was involved in negotiations on this thing. He tweeted the undertaker gif on Friday night. Like where he rises up out of the casket. That. That was appropriate. That was very appropriate. So we'll, we'll see what happens the rest of the week. But they very optimistic compared to this time last week.
B
Yeah.
A
One more thing before we go. The Tommy Castellanos ruling is what I'm going to call it. A federal judge in Colorado ruled that members of the class of 2022 who played four years of college football and were out of eligibility after last year because the NCAA has now ruled that you can play five for five, this federal judge says everybody from the class of 22 who played four and four now can play this year, too.
B
This was always going to happen, by the way. There was always going to be some sloppage when it came to changing eligibility timeline.
A
And my thinking was that the schools knew this and they said we, we may lose the class of 22 battles so we can win the five for five war.
B
Yeah.
A
And you'll get. Have a more substantial. Because remember, there's the age limit. They're basically trying to keep the European pro basketball players from coming in. There's a lot more to this than that. Also, they just wanted to simplify things, get rid of the waiver process that has generated a lot of the lawsuits. But yeah, this was always going to be a problem. The guy you were going to have to cut it off somewhere and the people right at the cutoff, we're going
B
to see, we're going to get upset.
A
And so that's what happened. I call it the Tommy Castellanos rule because Tommy Castellanos is one of those
B
players, the most high profile player didn't
A
red shirt who could theoretically come back. Now, Pete Nikos was explaining this to me like I'm a 5 year old today because I needed, I needed it. But there are a couple of lawsuits. There's one in Tennessee and one in Ohio where the plaintiffs in those lawsuits are allowed to enter the transfer portal for a 10 day window. The others are not. Now, I don't know if let's say this does hold up, which again this also might not hold up as a district court judge in Colorado. So this is gonna go, I believe to the 10th Circuit.
B
I'm just looking here down at the date. It's, it's August.
A
I know.
B
Okay.
A
The 10th Circuit could say we disagree with the district court. What the NCAA is doing is fine. And then all of a sudden it poof, it evaporates. But with football it's a lot less complex. We're talking about players who, it's not that many because you had to play four and four years. If you red shirted, you're already out. If you, you know, there are other, other factors. So we're only talking about that subset of players. And so like Tommy Castellanos, theoretically right now, if he wanted to play, I think would have to play for Florida State.
B
Right.
A
Which if you're Mike Norvell, you'd probably take him.
B
I mean, I guess there's no, the other thing I don't know is the back end of this. Aren't there roster limits? So what are they going to do? They'll kick off a walk on and then pay him nil in order to get him on the roster.
A
But you may not be at 105 right now.
B
Yeah, I don't know what Florida State's total number is.
A
Maybe you have somebody not show up. Maybe you had like that.
B
Yeah.
A
So that, that's, that's the tricky part. But you know, it's, it's not that many players. But it is fascinating that some people could get some depth because you, you could actually have gone undrafted. And I believe there'll be guys who were in NFL minicamps who maybe already got cut.
B
Yeah.
A
Who could probably come back. So that's, that's the, the tricky part is figuring out who, who qualifies, who doesn't.
B
Well, the thing that's also interesting about that too is that if you are in an NFL minicamp or you were cut very shortly into your college or your NFL career, you might not be an NFL player, but you certainly could be a difference maker in college. But I also don't know if anybody's going to be adding a star player to their team that's going to like, drastically alter the, the thought process of, of what we think for that team. So I, I, I don't know. There's a list of players, Pete was telling me a few of them. I'm, I'm trying to remember who they were, but, like, who were the, it
A
is not going to be, it's not a lot of guys, you know.
B
Yeah.
A
It's a lot of guys who, who played solid careers, who could be solid depth pieces or start, I mean, solid starters in places, but it's not going to be a huge, earth shattering thing for college football. Ari, there is something breaking news on Monday that is very, very interesting. Whoo. The USC Notre Dame series is back as of 2030.
B
Now, that's a long time to wait.
A
But does it really suck that it's going to be gone for four years before it comes back? Yes, but it will be back week one at the LA Memorial Coliseum in 2030. They will also meet in week one of the 2031 season, and they will play in one of the first three weeks of the season in 2032 and 2033. Pete Nacos reporting that this also means Notre Dame Indiana is not going to happen. The Notre Dame Indiana 2030 game, that
B
would have been fun, but hallelujah. Is that what we're, Is that what we say?
A
Yeah, I mean, this, this series needs to be played, period, for the sake of college football. Now, why did it go away? Well, one, the main reason is usc. Their Big Ten schedule is quite a bit more challenging, they feel like, than what their PAC12 schedule was, and so they got out of it. Now, they were willing to play under limited circumstances, and the circumstances they gave Notre Dame really weren't possible on short notice, but what they wanted was to move that game to the beginning of the season. Because, remember when they played in South Bend, traditionally they would play in October. And when they played in la, they would play at the end of the season. They would play the last game of the season. Notre Dame wanted that. Excuse me. USC wanted that game moved to the beginning of the season, and so that's where it will be.
B
Yeah.
A
It comes back.
B
Which, by the way, great for us.
A
Oh, my God.
B
Off seasons are so much better when week one's insane.
A
Well, and that's. That's what we've talked about this. This year with terrible week one games. Notre Dame is actually trying to play a good one. They're playing Wisconsin.
B
Yeah.
A
When they scheduled this game, Wisconsin was a lot better than it had been.
B
Yeah.
A
So they're trying, but we need more good week one games. So this is. This is great. I'm glad they're getting back.
B
Sets the tone for the entire off season.
A
Yeah.
B
I mean, how many hours have we spent talking about, well, middle of the
A
season, look at USC schedule this year and imagine that they were starting with Notre Dame instead of San Jose State.
B
Yeah. Well, who knows what college football is
A
going to look like? Nasty, nasty schedule.
B
It's a very short time away, but a very long.
A
Yeah. Yeah.
B
I don't know. Yeah.
A
Might be.
B
Might be a whole new world out there. But I'm excited that at least they're back on the schedules. It sucks that we have to wait, but it was just not right. It felt wrong that we didn't. We didn't get them for any period of time for them to be in it.
A
So. 2030 at USC, week one. 2031, I'm assuming at Notre Dame, week one, and then sometime in the first three weeks of the season, in 2032 and 2033, I hope they decide to sign this thing for 75 more years so that we.
B
Yeah. Just a 75 year again. Yeah. Has anything ever been signed for 75 years that. I'm sure there's been some.
A
I imagine some of those state rivalry contracts probably have incredibly long dates or the state legislature got involved and mandated it.
B
My number one thought here, Andy, is that there are so many different things in college football that are complicated as we just got done talking about the government's involvement in rulemaking. But I can't stand when people in college football take the easy things and mess them up.
A
Yeah.
B
And the easy things are play these games.
A
Yeah.
B
Just play these games.
A
Notre Dame and USC should play each other every season.
B
That's it.
A
I don't care when they play. Just play the game. And now that's what they're going to do. Starting in 20, 30.
B
And good for them for doing it, too, because there was some question of whether they would. They would actually come to the table.
A
They kept saying, well, Notre Dame wanted to. Yeah, I don't think there's any question Notre Dame wanted to. And usc, we'll see. You know, look, this year is going to tell us a lot about USC and its fitness to compete in the Big Ten. They're either going to do it or they're going to change and find a way to do it. Yeah, I think that's. That's kind of where USC's at on that.
B
Yeah. And by then, who knows, maybe they'll. They'll be.
A
They'll have arrived titles by then.
B
Yeah, maybe they'll have arrived or maybe there'll be a new coach. I don't know. We'll see. But I'm happy that they're on the schedule. And that's as we're looking at a USC helmet across the way here.
A
It's.
B
It's good to see that back on the schedule.
A
Yeah. This is. This is one that I got to say, Ari, when. When they decided not to do it this year, I was worried because they. They said all along, hey, we want to do this, we want to do this, we want to do this. But I was worried it wasn't coming back. I was worried. They keep kicking the can down. The hardest thing to not bring it
B
back about canceling it is not playing it the first time. And then once you don't play it, then you have the out. So I'm happy for both of them, and I'm happy for college football fans who get this back.
A
Yeah, this is. This is good news for everybody. And, hey, what a way to end Monday's show.
B
It's just when we're together, magic happens.
A
That's right. That's right. We're going to go hang out in Nashville. We got meetings here at. On three. We've got the personnel symposium. We're going to learn a lot about how rosters get put together in college football. Talk to some of our favorite personnel people who listen to the show, and it's going to be a very fun week. We'll have a lot of goodies for you this week. And it sounds like there's going to be quite a bit of news this week.
B
And also thanks to Poly Market, we're excited to kick off our part here. It feels good to have our first Poly Market episode together. We will be relying on those markets throughout the season, and we're still going to have our Pick Show. We're still going to do all those. It's going to be good time.
A
Use polymarket for all that stuff. The spreads will drop on Sunday nights. And we'll be talking about them on the Pick show early in the week. And it won't change anything we do, really. Just we're gonna be making trades, Nothing better.
B
I'll talk to you tomorrow, Sam.
Date: August 3, 2026
Hosts: Andy Staples & Ari Wasserman
Theme: A comprehensive, real-time discussion on the newly-released 2026 college football season win totals, deep-dive analyses of teams including Indiana’s repeat chances, and Alabama’s outlook, plus major legal and NCAA news impacting the sport.
Andy and Ari kick off their new sponsorship with Polymarket by giving listeners a front-row seat to the “market” of preseason win totals and team odds, capturing the volatility, unpredictability, and complexity of the modern college football landscape. The main episode threads are:
[08:21-11:00]
[11:42–17:29]
[19:36–24:52]
[25:00–37:05]
[42:50–54:25]
[54:25–68:10]
[74:27–78:00]
This episode epitomizes college football’s 2026 landscape: unpredictable, parity-filled, and chaotic—both on the field and in the courts. For diehard fans, betting enthusiasts, and industry insiders alike, Andy and Ari provide a comprehensive state-of-the-union that is as much about team previews as it is about the existential shifts rocking the sport. If you're looking for one dense, insightful, and entertaining crash course on what's at stake this season—from Indiana's Cinderella repeat attempt to Senate showdowns on NIL/transfer policy—this is the one to listen to (or read).