45 Million Rich Households (EP. 475)

Summary

Animal Spirits Podcast Episode 475: "45 Million Rich Households"

Hosts: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson
Date: July 29, 2026
Length: ~65 minutes (excluding ads and intros)

---

Episode Overview

In this episode, Michael and Ben tackle the shifting landscape of the markets, with a particular focus on the surprising resilience of the US stock market despite sharp sell-offs in leading sectors, the ongoing debate around bonds, a closer look at how American households are spending and accumulating wealth, international investing fads, and financial product innovation. They also delve into cultural trends, streaming wars, and share their signature blend of personal stories and investing insights.

---

Market Wrap: The Surface vs. Under the Hood

Key Segment: [02:37 - 09:19]

• Unusual Market Day: Semiconductors (semis) and hardware sold off hard, while the broader S&P 500 held up—semis down 4% in a day, while some software names were up 3.3%.

  • "This is an absolute outlier of a day." — Michael Batnick [03:18]
  • "Semiconductors down huge, but the S&P is flat? That's good news, right?" — Ben Carlson [04:21]

• Discussion of specific tech names with outsized drawdowns (Micron, Western Digital, SanDisk, Marvell) despite the overall index nearing all-time highs.

  • "It's not just some stocks, it's the leadership stocks." — Michael [04:21]

• Bubble Deflation, Not Market Collapse: The AI-driven “bubble” is deflating, but instead of dragging everything lower, market breadth is improving.

  • Equal-weight S&P was up during the semis rout.
  • "The market is acting a little bit sober, which is nice." — Michael [09:19]

• Late Cycle Narratives: The guys reflect on how “late cycle” has been the norm for years; the run in momentum names was extreme and unsustainable through April, making the current correction healthy.

---

Underappreciated Market Trends

Key Segment: [09:31 - 13:22]

• Valuations Falling—So Why the Concern?: Despite years of overvaluation warnings, the forward PE ratio for the S&P 500 is declining even as prices rise.

  • "For years people have said the market is overvalued. Now valuations are falling...I don’t think valuations matter anymore unless we get to like a 50 PE." — Ben [12:55]

• IPO Bust: IPOs since 2019 have dramatically underperformed the market. Batnick and Carlson see it as a sign that private valuations were too high and the public market served as a reality check.

  • "This chart is an indictment on private market investors." — Michael [14:03]
  • SpaceX cited as an example: big pop, then down nearly 45% from the highs.

---

Long-Term Investing, Bond Bearishness, and Portfolio Pains

Key Segment: [15:10 - 22:07]

• Ron Baron’s long-term investing style is discussed as a counterpoint, with examples from Tesla and SpaceX and a lighthearted digression about eye contact.

• Bonds—Universal Pessimism: Ben recounts conviction among market professionals that bonds will underperform due to enduring high inflation and interest rates.

  • "Everyone is bearish on bonds right now. That would've really surprised me 10 years ago." — Ben [17:43]
  • They consider whether groupthink is wrong, or simply reflects the pain of five terrible years for bondholders.

• 60/40 Portfolio Isn’t Dead: Despite poor bond returns, stocks have pulled portfolios through—most people don’t own only bonds.

---

International Leverage Mania & Global Household Wealth

Key Segment: [22:07 - 29:13]

• South Korean Margin Boom: A Reuters story on the wild leveraging culture among South Korean retail traders, with quick gains/losses and five-times leverage on small accounts.

  • "If I add five times leverage, I can build wealth five times faster..." — Lee Seung Ho, Korean investor [23:17, quoted]
  • "Feels like crypto to me." — Ben [23:54]

• Growth in Global Equity Ownership: As emerging markets open access to stock investing, these countries may see rapid, volatile cycles—but eventually, it’s seen as a tailwind for global equities.

---

Private Markets for the Masses

Key Segment: [25:50 - 27:42]

• Blackstone and Vanguard are collaborating to deliver private market funds (managed by Vanguard/Wellington/Blackstone) to individuals, first via Merrill Lynch. This is described as a sign of the "new haystack" (Jack Bogle’s term) including private markets, advancing diversification.

• Target-date funds with private assets seen as inevitable.

---

The US Consumer Juggernaut

Key Segment: [27:42 - 31:48]

• Disposable Income Powerhouse: Having low fixed-rate mortgages has boosted US household disposable income compared to nations where rates float. Effective rates average 4.3% vs. 6.6% for new buyers—a $300B annual tailwind.

• Conspicuous Spending at the World Cup: Viral video reveals attendees dropping $20,000–$200,000 on tickets, spanning professions from CEO to YouTuber to fruit snack mogul. Hosts riff on wealth stratification.

  • "There's levels to this..." — Michael [30:26]

• The top 45M US households' outlays are equivalent to 70% of the entire Chinese economy.

  • "That 45 million households is such a big amount too...almost as big as Chinese GDP." — Ben [31:41]

---

Tech Earnings & Hyperscaler Spending

Key Segment: [31:48 - 34:13]

• Google's CFO comments on relentless CapEx in AI despite supply constraints and negative free cash flow:

  • "As you've seen, while we have increased our capacity quite significantly over the past three years, the demand still outpaces that investment." — Google CFO (quoted) [32:48]
  • Despite “monster” results, the stock is down 18-20%.

• Hosts debate when (if) hyper-investment in cloud/AI by giants like Google/Meta/Amazon reaches breaking point with investors.

---

Private Credit & Market Blowups

Key Segment: [34:13 - 36:57]

• Blackstone, Blue Owl, and other private credit funds experienced elevated redemptions, but panic has faded (for now). Notably, many growth/momentum/tech names have suffered drawdowns of 30-50% during the wider bull run.

  • "During a bull market, the amount of companies you can buy that are down 30, 40, 50%...pretty wild." — Ben [35:30]

• Nike’s troubles are mentioned as emblematic: the brand has lost its younger-gen shine, per listener feedback.

  • "Nike doesn't have the hold on them like it did older generations." — Ben [36:20]

---

Earnings Season & Consumer "K-Shape"

Key Segment: [36:57 - 41:20]

• Strong Earnings Revision Trends: More S&P 500 companies are raising forward guidance than cutting, supporting falling valuations.

• Resilient US Consumer: Capital One and American Express see strong credit performance and dizzying spending spikes, driven by Millennials/Gen Z.

  • Amex: “Millennials 14% growth, Gen Z up 40%—now 7% of card spending.”

• Rising Wealth Stratification Among Youth: Anecdotes and data show a wider spread between the haves and have-nots for the younger generation compared to the 2010s.

---

Wealth Transfer and Generational Shifts

Key Segment: [41:20 - 44:07]

• Visa reports Millennials/Gen X are, per capita, richer than Boomers were at the same age (inflation-adjusted). Of trillions to be inherited, most will be saved rather than spent.

  • "All that wealth is getting...right back into portfolios and such." — Ben [42:06]

• Hosts banter about whether some people's entire retirement strategy boils down to “wait for the will.”

---

Streaming Wars, Attention Economy, and Pop Culture

Key Segment: [44:22 - 52:20]

• Netflix still dominates original streaming hours (57% share), despite consensus that its quality is in a lull.

  • "People spend more time watching old shows than new ones." — Ben [45:08]
  • Podcasts on Netflix are flopping; YouTube remains king.

• The TikTok/Instagram Effect: Batnick jokes about spending 45 minutes scrolling reels—a comment on where attention has truly shifted.

  • "Instagram, obviously TikTok too...just killing, just ruining our society. It's a magnet for your eyeballs." — Michael [46:32]

• IMAX and “the Odyssey”: Oppenheimer was big, but Christopher Nolan’s latest (the Odyssey) is even bigger, driving sold-out screens and public demand for more true IMAX theaters. However, hosts share the bizarre fact that lost blueprints and specialized parts are a bottleneck.

  • "If AI can't figure this out, what are we building it for?" — Ben [49:34]

---

RWM Retirement Party and Personal Musings

Key Segment: [52:17 - 56:02]

• Michael relays a heartfelt story about colleagues Tony and Dina Isola retiring from RWM. Tony’s maxim:
  • "Your money is growing, your time is shrinking.” — Tony Isola [52:54]

---

Life Updates & Recommendations

Key Segment: [55:33 - 65:00]

• Michael battles a stomach bug and shares humorous stories about losing yet another pair of AirPods, his son's first foray into cologne (for a camp "prom"), and binge-watching sick-day movies.

  • Recommendations: “Pressure” (a true D-Day story), “Tuner” (crime film), and notes on “Masters of the Universe” (kids loved it).

• Ben tells a story from a family trip to Michigan’s Adventure and observing the "tattooed parents at water parks" phenomenon, and his son passing out repeatedly on a wooden roller coaster.

• Movie review: “Disclosure Day” (both hosts panned it as “a mess,” not worth seeing in theaters).

• Michael is excited to see the band Rush and riffs on "I Love You, Man."

---

Notable Quotes & Moments

• "For all the bubble talk, this is good news... the S&P is basically at an all-time high." — Ben [03:32]
• "We've been in the ninth inning for like 12 years." — Ben [08:11]
• "If I add five times leverage, I can build wealth five times faster than the others." — Lee Seung Ho [23:17, quoted]
• "The market is acting a little bit sober, which is nice." — Michael [09:19]
• "Your money is growing, your time is shrinking." — Tony Isola [52:54]
• "Disposable income among these households is $300 billion higher than it would've been [with floating mortgages]." — Ben [27:52]
• "That 45 million households... almost as big as Chinese GDP." — Ben [31:48]

---

Timestamps for Reference

• Market Day/Earnings Dynamics: [02:37 - 09:19]
• PE Ratios, IPOs, and Valuation: [09:31 - 16:02]
• Bond Market Gloom/Pain: [17:43 - 22:07]
• Korean Leverage Mania: [22:07 - 25:50]
• Private Markets & Vanguard: [25:50 - 27:42]
• US Household Wealth/Spending: [27:42 - 31:48]
• Tech Hyperscaler Spending: [31:48 - 34:13]
• Private Credit Drama: [34:13 - 36:57]
• Earnings/Consumer Data: [36:57 - 41:20]
• Wealth Transfer, Generational Wealth: [41:20 - 44:07]
• Streaming/Attention Economy: [44:22 - 52:20]
• Retirement & Perspectives: [52:17 - 56:02]
• Personal Stories & Recommendations: [55:33 - end]

---

Closing Thoughts

This episode provides a comprehensive, witty, and accessible look at the mechanics and psychology of today's markets, U.S. consumer dynamics, global trends, and the cultural shifts shaping investor attitudes. Through their banter, Michael and Ben balance timely market data with personal anecdotes and sharp social commentary, making the complexities of finance tangible and relatable.

Listeners come away with insights on:

• How the market is absorbing corrections in hot stocks without broader calamity
• Why the private-public investment gap is a cautionary tale
• Radical changes in wealth, both within the U.S. and globally
• Why pessimism toward bonds, and exuberance in some global markets, might signal future surprises

If you want a seat at the intersection of markets, culture, and life—Animal Spirits is the place.

Transcript

[Michael Batnik]

Today's show is sponsored by Y Charts. If you're a financial advisor, you already know the hardest part of the job isn't finding the data, it's turning that data into clear, confident conversations and visuals. Clients actually understand why Charts helps advisors research faster, visualize market data clearly and turn complex portfolio questions into client ready insights. On average, advisors using Y charts save around 20 hours a month across proposals, research and client prep. And now, with built in AI tools, advisors can quickly surface key takeaways to understand what changed and why, and spend less time digging through data. Whether you're comparing portfolios, stress testing strategies, or answering tough client questions in real time, Y Charts cuts through the noise and keeps your clients focused on what matters most. Learn more@y charts.com or click the link in the Show Notes to start a free trial and get 20% off your initial Y Charts Professional subscription. That's for new customers only.

[Ben Carlson]

Today's show is brought to you by Calamos. All right, let's talk about what Calamos is doing here because it's pretty wild. We've mentioned their ETFs before, but this one stands out. It's it's the Auto Callable Income ETF Ticker C A I E the pitch is simple, seeking high tax efficient monthly income Last month was about 14% with much of it expected to be return of capital. That combo seeking high income plus tax efficiency is what grabs attention. But zoom out. Auto Callables have traditionally been a big bank driven market, sold mostly to wealthy clients. Not exactly accessible. Calamos essentially packaged it into an etf, liquid transparent and easy to access. That's a big shift the industry's notice. CAIE has already won three major innovation awards and it's nearing $1 billion in assets in under a year. While most investors are chasing yield with covered calls, this is a different approach entirely. Check out caienmost.com for investors who love income. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben

[Michael Batnik]

are solely their own opinion and do

[Ben Carlson]

not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

[Michael Batnik]

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. It is Monday, July 27th. Why am I opening the show with a date? Because usually Ben and I record on Tuesday morning. Although you know what, what's the difference? We recorded at the close on Monday, the opening on Tuesday, same thing.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. That's why I wanted to do it at 4 o'. Clock.

[Michael Batnik]

No difference. Credit to you. All right, let's jump right into it. This is an unusual. Was an unusual day for the market. This is an interesting time for the market. And today got a little funky. So the sell off in semi and some of the hardware related names, all the AI infrastructure build out, all of the things that we've been speaking about over the last six months, the momentum that was severely extended. We're now on the other side of that. At one point during the late afternoon, and I assume the close was, was basically this, semiconductors were down 4% on the day and software, the anti AI semi trade was up 3.3% going back to 1989. We have a scatter plot for those of you who are listening, not watching. This is unusual. This is an absolute outlier of a day.

[Ben Carlson]

Wow. I mean that's like the stock market getting killed and bonds doing well or something. I don't know what the comparison of that. So okay, so here's the. I just ran this too. We're on the same wavelength this week from the highs and this happened really quick. Micron is down 27%. Western Digital down 34%. SanDisk is down 46%. Seagate Technology is down 26%. These are all the semiconductor memory names that would be found in that DRAM portfolio. So again, this was an easy one to call that it would happen. But I think this, to me, for all the bubble talk, this is good news. And why is this good news? The stock market is 2% off all time highs. The stuff under the surface. This is one of the great things about the stock market. There are some stocks getting absolutely hammered right now and yet the S and P is basically at an all time high.

[Michael Batnik]

Wait, it's not just some stocks, it's the leadership stocks.

[Ben Carlson]

Right? The stock market is flat today. Nvidia's down 5%.

[Michael Batnik]

Ben, look at these next two charts.

[Ben Carlson]

That's good news, right?

[Michael Batnik]

It's great news. Your voice inflected four octaves on that one. You are really excited. This is good news. So chart kid, you told me I'm

[Ben Carlson]

not excited enough about short term stuff in the stock market. I'm, I'm giving you excitement here.

[Michael Batnik]

Lean in. All right. I love it. All right, so we've got two charts. One is the average 52 week drawdown of semiconductors or as Ben says, semiconductors and 27%.

[Ben Carlson]

Did I really say that?

[Michael Batnik]

You always say that. You say semiconductors.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, you said semi.

[Michael Batnik]

You say semiconductors.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay,

[Michael Batnik]

so the Average is down 27%. Marvell is down 41%. And then we've got tech, hardware and equipment stock drawdown. So this is western dig, Corning, Sandisk, which by the way, Sandisk was so freaking extended, dude. It's in a 45% drawdown. And if you zoom out more than like three months, it looks. Nor it still looks like. It still looks like it's in an uptrend. It basically got cut in half. And it's still in an uptrend.

[Ben Carlson]

In the last year, the stock is still up 2900 percent and it's down 46%.

[Michael Batnik]

That sounds. That sounds.

[Ben Carlson]

That's amazing.

[Michael Batnik]

That sounds fake.

[Ben Carlson]

That's a Ron Burgundy. I'm not even mad. I'm impressed.

[Michael Batnik]

So it is unbelievable that the part of the market that people were calling the bubble is deboubling or deflating. And yet the market, the S&P 500, was actually up today.

[Ben Carlson]

The equal weight happening.

[Michael Batnik]

The equal weight was up about 40 something basis.

[Ben Carlson]

First it was the Mag 7 sold off. Market did fine. Right now it's a semic. Then say, oh, well, that's because it's just the memory stocks now. They're selling off and the market is still fine.

[Michael Batnik]

Now I will say there is. There are.

[Ben Carlson]

Circa is just a Rasputin. Market never dies.

[Michael Batnik]

You know what? I gotta be honest. I don't know what Rasputin is or who he is. Was this like a child's tale? What is this? Who's Rasputin?

[Ben Carlson]

Put it into ChatGPT. The only reason I really.

[Michael Batnik]

Tell me.

[Ben Carlson]

The only reason I really learned about it is because Wayne Fonts was the old Lions coach. And Chris Berman used to say, he's like Rasputin. He just won't die. They wouldn't fire him. Rasputin is this guy in Russia back in the day when some big revolution happened and they tried to kill him like five times. He wouldn't die. They give him poison, they stabbed him, all this stuff. And he just wouldn't die. So he say something that won't die is Rasputin. Ah.

[Michael Batnik]

I realized I was talking to a Russian historian over there.

[Ben Carlson]

That's right.

[Michael Batnik]

Not bad.

[Ben Carlson]

Hey, comrades.

[Michael Batnik]

So anyway. All right. As Rasputin, as this market is, and. And it is all those things, Teflon, whatever you want to call. We've been. We've been saying this. There are things to look at under the surface that are worth paying attention to or at least just. Yeah, just put them on your radar. Consumer staple stocks are ripping Coca Cola boring names like that. Credit spreads are widening, especially the junkier. You go getting a little bit wider. Not nothing, nothing to be alarmist about by any stretch, but. And I think all of this is happening with the sense that maybe the Fed is hiking this week.

[Ben Carlson]

No way. There's no way he hikes on his first, like, first real meeting.

[Michael Batnik]

Neil Daughter called. Neil daughter called it today.

[Ben Carlson]

Well, someone has. Because if you call it and they do it like you're a legend. If they. You call me, don't do it. Yeah, well, they would have Neil Dunn's legend in my.

[Michael Batnik]

In my eyes either way.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. Just because he's a Knicks fan. So. Okay, so you're saying there's some. I think this is the big thing that people are trying to say. The, the. If, if we, you and I were on CNBC right now, we'd say, listen, late cycle behavior. This is late cycle behavior, right? The market is broadening out. Consumer staples credit. Like, this is late cycle behavior. What does that mean? I don't know. We've been in the ninth inning for like 12 years.

[Michael Batnik]

No, you're right. The bulls have earned the benefit of the doubt on that sum.

[Ben Carlson]

So here's another. What I think is good news. So the momentum factor had just one of the craziest runs it's ever had because through April, momentum stocks, and I'm using the iShares Momentum Factor ETF, MTUM through April were down almost 10% on the year. Then three months later, we're up almost 40% on the year, and now it's up. So it went. It went from being negative to up 40% in three months. And now in the last month, it's gone from a gain of almost 40% to a gain of now. The year to date gain is 20.

[Michael Batnik]

So this feels a little more healthy. This is more normal. The gains that we were seeing through April were clearly unsustainable. And not. We're not. This is not like Captain Hindsight, everybody the time was saying, this is unhealthy. Like micron going up 30% a day. This is abnormal. It pulling back is very normal.

[Ben Carlson]

Every time it seems like the market is just going to like, just rip and just like, okay, fine, let's do this. You want to really do this? Let's do it. It doesn't happen. There's like, there's some something that happens where investors just have enough sense to Go. Let's not take this too far.

[Michael Batnik]

I feel like there is a natural governor on the upside, and for as much nonsense mania as there is, like, the market is acting a little bit sober, which is nice.

[Ben Carlson]

Another one from Duality Research. We keep highlighting the forward PE ratio for the S and P keeps falling.

[Michael Batnik]

Can I say something? Hold on. I'm sorry to cut you off. The word sober just triggered an experience for me. Okay, so this is my second flu game of the year. Flu podcast of the season. I'm sick. I'm like 80% better. But I was in bed all day yesterday morning. Today. So all day from Sunday until today. I got out of bed at noon today and I slept like a dog. I was. I think I slept for 20 straight hours. I'm watching a show called the Westies.

[Ben Carlson]

What's that on?

[Michael Batnik]

It's a brand new show on MGM Plus. And I said to myself, mgm Plus.

[Ben Carlson]

You're really slumming it, huh?

[Michael Batnik]

It got recommended to me by four different people. I said, I'm not. I can't sign up.

[Ben Carlson]

That's not in our inbox.

[Michael Batnik]

I can't sign up for another streaming service. It's enough already. But because I already paid for shutter, it was. It's $3 a month. All right, fine. Give me the Westies. It's about the build out of the Javits center, and J.K. simmons is head of the Irish Mafia and he's going to war with the Italians, Gotti and Castellano. Anyway.

[Ben Carlson]

Decent.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, it's pretty good. It's actually quite good.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. It's funny, you always say that you never get sick, but once every three months, you're in bed for like 24 hours straight.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. But in between those three month period, I'm never sick. I only get sick when I am.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't know. I. I'm the one who never gets sick. I don't. I want to knock on wood here, but, like, I. I don't just get taken out for like 48 hours in a row from a bug. I feel like that happens to you all the time.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, there is a severe bug going around the northeast. And not just that lettuce bug, there's also E. Coli in one of the camps, so.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, that's right. That's. That's what happened. You got. You just ate Taco Bell.

[Michael Batnik]

No.

[Ben Carlson]

That would happen.

[Michael Batnik]

No. Anyway, I'll. I'll share more in the. In the show later, but. But I did get food poisoning or some sort of stomach bug. So I was. I threw up five times yesterday morning. It was horrendous. Projectile vomiting.

[Ben Carlson]

Well, this 4P ratio. Wait, like, wait, it's projectile, right?

[Michael Batnik]

I didn't tell you. Let me just finish. Why I even went on this tangent that you said. I said the word sober. So there's a scene in the Westies where, where they're drinking and this is the Irish, you know, they drink a lot. And I was almost nauseated. I almost had to fast forward. That's how sick I was. The, like, the look of the. Watching them take shots at Jameson almost made me throw up again.

[Ben Carlson]

Ah, that's a shot that never goes down smooth. Irish whiskey.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, come on. You and I have had plenty of shots at Jameson together, have we not?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, but it never goes down smooth. That's what I'm saying. I love drinking it, but it never goes down smooth.

[Michael Batnik]

Pig and whistle before next playoff game always goes down smooth.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, all right.

[Michael Batnik]

Anyway, sorry, back to the 4P.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I was saying the 4P is also puking. It just, it keeps going down and it's not like, it's not like you can say, oh, stocks are so cheap. But I don't know, the, the forward PE ratio is not that much higher today than it was on the Liberation Day lows. Then it was trading at 18 times forward earnings. Today it's 19 and a half. It's kind of unbelievable because the stock market is up how much since then?

[Michael Batnik]

Quite a bit. Quite a bit.

[Ben Carlson]

A lot.

[Michael Batnik]

Right, so Liberation Day lows as well as the, the war sell off.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. That was a thing that happened, right, for like a week.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know if this is. I don't know if this is more bullish or like, I think this is interesting. I don't know, there's like signal in

[Ben Carlson]

here for the, for the four PE falling.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. I'm not going to look at this chart and pound the table on like further upside because the PE is coming down. I think the P is coming down because the market is saying, we don't believe the E. We don't believe.

[Ben Carlson]

I just think it. Yeah, well, that, that obviously that's part of it with the memory stocks. I just think it's hilarious that for years and years and years people have been saying the stock market is overvalued and now valuations are falling. It's just kind of interesting to me, although I subscribe to the notion that for the market as a whole, valuations really don't matter unless we get to like a 50p. I don't think valuations matter anymore.

[Michael Batnik]

They don't.

[Ben Carlson]

They really don't.

[Michael Batnik]

Sounds like heresy.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, they don't though.

[Michael Batnik]

They don't.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. All right, IPOs. This is from Torson Slack. IPOs have underperformed the market since 2019. This is the three year buy and hold market adjusted IPO. So it takes the IPO and then compares it to what the market did. And every year the IPOs are getting just slaughtered. This decade just massacred. And I know people keep talking about the reason that we're not having more IPOs. I know we're having some big ones this year, but the reason why all these companies are staying private longer is because of regulations and rules and there's so much private capital, blah, blah, blah. I think one of the other reasons is they know they're all overvalued 100%. And if they go. If they go public, they're going to. It's just going to. Oh, my gosh.

[Michael Batnik]

That's such. I'm so glad you said that. What a great point. This chart is an indictment on private market investors.

[Ben Carlson]

It is that it's. There was too much money that flowed in and valuations got taken way too high. And the public market said, nope, that's. It's kind of crazy. Target, Matt and the team at Exhibit A show they did this, the average ipo, and I think they did this. How far back did they go? Oh, 99. The average IPO. It's kind of funny. It has a little pop, falls a little, then it comes up and then it just falls. And then 12 months after the IPO, the average IPO is down 30%. 12 months after the IPO, which is kind of crazy. And he put SpaceX chart on here, and that huge pop immediately is up 50%. Now it's down 15% in total, but it's down how much from the highs? 45% or so. And this thing's getting killed every day. I looked at this. It's down 14 out of the 18 trading days in July. So almost every day SpaceX goes down this month. It's pretty wild because everyone who said this thing is obviously overvalued was right almost immediately. But now what happens?

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know. Did you happen to listen to our episode with Ron Baron on tcaf?

[Ben Carlson]

No. You know, my podcast consumption is in a bear market. Cause on the weekends I'm just outside the whole time and I have to catch up during the week. Okay, so he's a Tesla guy, so he's obviously bullish on SpaceX. Is that fair.

[Michael Batnik]

So he's an Elon Musk guy.

[Ben Carlson]

He's a Musk guy to say the least.

[Michael Batnik]

Elon Musk made him $30 billion or him and his investors $30 billion. I think I'd be a fan too. So what Ron Baron has been able to do, I think he has the number one performing mutual fund since 2003 or something like that. And like 95% of his funds are in the top 10 desile or something crazy. And a lot of it is due to his investments in Tesla. He's made, he made 27 different investments in SpaceX. Anytime people wanted to cash out, he said, great, I'll take it. So this guy's a, he's been along for the ride. He's a long, long term investor.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

He invested in Wynn for 27 years. Like he is an unusual cat that he's able to stay invested in these companies for so long. He did say that he thinks SpaceX could 20 to 30x over the next 10 to 15 years, which is a 30. So I, I, so, all right, 20x over the next 10 years is a 35% CAGR at one and a half trillion dollars. It seems highly unlikely.

[Ben Carlson]

So he's saying it's like in 30 years it's as big as the economy is today.

[Michael Batnik]

I mean, whatever. Crazy. Yeah. Anyway, that was, that was, that was a, an interesting conversation. 83 years old.

[Ben Carlson]

Does he also think that Tesla and SpaceX are for sure going to merge? Because that seems to be the. He doesn't think so.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't, I don't even think we asked him that. 83 years old, sharpest attack. And you know what, you know, one of my big takeaways from ron Baron, he's 83. 83. Super sharp. The recall that he had telling us stories about him growing up. He like, I, I don't know if you know this about me, huge eye contact guy.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I could see that. I'm not a big eye contact guy.

[Michael Batnik]

No, you're the anti. When I am staring, when I am having a conversation, I am looking into somebody's soul. No, but I mean that's, you have my attention. I look at. And he, he, he challenged me. He was a hu, he, he was right in the center of my stare off.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, no, it was just, I feel like we got to know each other

[Ben Carlson]

from the eyeballs and then you uncomfortably looked away. You had. Someone has to look away eventually.

[Michael Batnik]

I think he blinked, actually. I gotta be honest. I think he blinked.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, let's talk about something that everyone is bearish on, I think, and this is when I say everyone. I know you always give me crap for that. But I had two, I think the consensus take. Now, you can correct me if I'm wrong here. From the pundit class, from the investor class. Everyone is bearish on bonds right now. Is that fair to say?

[Michael Batnik]

You would know better than I would.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, I'm in, everyone. Okay. So I'm going to point out two conversations I had in the past week and I've been hearing this same story everywhere. And I'm not saying these people are wrong. I'm just saying I, I, I always feel a little uncomfortable when everyone is so consensus on something like this. So I talked to Yuri and Timmer last week for acid compound. And, and he says, listen, the biggest risk to the market right now, one of them is rising yields, bond yields. And that could, because inflation is high and because the Fed could have to raise rates and all these things. And he's saying, we're in an age of fiscal dominance. This whole idea of the rates falling for 40 years is over. Now inflation is going to be higher because of higher deficits, higher government debt, all these things. Right. I went on this other local podcast last week. Caveat emptor. I think I said that right. Emptor. Mitch Stapley is a guy, he used to be the chief investment officer at Fifth Third Bank. Now he works at this place in grand. It's called the Red Cedar Investments. And he, he kind of made a similar case as Urian. He's a bond guy. He made the, he's like, listen, inflation higher, you know, anything long duration is going to get smoked. Like, this is not a great environment for that. You have to keep your duration low. And again, I'm not saying these people are wrong. I think they probably, I would lean more towards them being right in terms of the higher inflation thing sticking and all this. But I just feel like with bond yields being so much higher, it would really surprise me five years ago if you said, or ten years ago if you said, listen, bond yields are finally going to be at 5% and everyone's going to still hate bonds. That would have been surprising to telling someone that in the zero interest rate world that we lived in, like, hey, yields are finally going to be juicy enough, but people want to, like, you know, get something finally. And now everyone still hates bonds. That's surprising to me.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

So what, in what, under what, what would have to happen for these people to be wrong? Just a recession.

[Michael Batnik]

That would do it. Well, I Think, Listen, you have to be an idiot to just completely dismiss those fears. I guess my question to.

[Ben Carlson]

I agree.

[Michael Batnik]

My question to them would be rates have been high for a while, at least high by, by recent historical standards. What would it take for the risks to emerge because of higher yields? Is it the ten year going to five and a half percent or is it just higher for longer? Is ultimately going to impair X, Y or Z?

[Ben Carlson]

The question I asked is are you surprised that yields aren't higher given all the spending that's happening? And the answer was yes. Like it takes the market sometimes a while to adjust to the new environment and maybe yields, the new yields should be higher, which obviously is not great for things like mortgage rates.

[Michael Batnik]

Does it take, does it take the market a while to adjust or is this like the economy to adjust?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that. Well, that's a good point too. But if you look at the bond market for the past five years and I put this chart in here, I understand one of the reasons why people hate bonds is because they've just been so horrible. So I looked at the last five year returns for bonds, total returns for the ag, which is, you know, a benchmark for almost everyone. And then that'll be like a total index fund for most people in bonds. The three to seven year treasury bond, 20 plus year, then seven to 10 year. Right. And so over the past five years the AG is essentially giving you nothing. Same thing with three to seven year treasuries. Ten year treasury, seven to 10 year treasuries. You lost 8% of your money in five years. Long term bonds, you got smoked. It's like 33% down. And add inflation on top of that, it's, it's even worse obviously. So the fact that the, you know, the sentiment around bonds is bad, that makes sense. If, if you were looking at a lost five years for stocks, everyone would hate them too. So that part makes sense to me.

[Michael Batnik]

Can I pull a bun Carlson here?

[Ben Carlson]

Yep.

[Michael Batnik]

Nobody just owns stocks. I mean nobody just owns bonds. So if you look at returns of a 6040 portfolio.

[Ben Carlson]

True.

[Michael Batnik]

Probably still above average.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. Yeah, you're, you're right. It's, it's. Stocks have done the heavy lifting and I just think the fact that yields are so much higher just gives you a built in margin of safety that you just didn't. We already took the biggest part of the pain. Zero to five was an enormous amount of pain for bonds. So now it feels like if it's going to be painful, it's a death by a thousand Cuts. Whereas before you got pushed off of a cliff.

[Michael Batnik]

Yes.

[Ben Carlson]

With no parachute.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. The worst is behind us.

[Ben Carlson]

Again, I'm not saying I disagree with these people. I'm just saying, like, where could they. Where could this consensus now, opinion, it seems like consensus by a lot of very smart people. Where could that be wrong?

[Michael Batnik]

All right, let's talk about South Korea. This is. This is why. Let me just read this.

[Ben Carlson]

Did you read this piece? This is. This was really good.

[Michael Batnik]

From Reuters, Lee Seung Ho watched the nearly 300 million won, which is around 200 grand fortune he built with a 500% margin loan evaporated just four weeks in May. But he plans to borrow again and return to the market the moment he has enough capital. Attaboy, Lee sung. Attaboy. The 24 year old South Korean university students in Seoul briefly turned the 20 million won he saved during the mandatory military service into a 15 fold windfall, all by tapping, quote, a tiny circle button on his trading app that instantly unlocked five times leverage. Violent swings in South Korean stocks triggered a cascade of forced liquidations by his brokerage, wiping out the gains. Within weeks, his account had fallen below his invest his initial investment, leaving him under such strain that he said. I literally could not breathe. But I'm sticking to margin loans. Lee said from his studio apartment, barely larger than a parking space next to an empty Habiki whiskey and unboxed electric fan gifted by his brokerage after he qualified as a VIP client.

[Ben Carlson]

This is really good. What?

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. Lee said, since stocks are volatile assets, that volatility, if it moves upward, allows for rapid wealth creation. If I add five times leverage, I can build wealth five times faster than the others. This guy's. He's not the only person doing this.

[Ben Carlson]

No legend. I love how they had to like get like put him down by talking about how big his apartment was.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Come on. Low blow, Reuters.

[Ben Carlson]

Five times leverage.

[Michael Batnik]

There was a. There was a data point going around a couple of weeks ago that there was 500,000 South Korean accounts that were liquidated. Do you remember. Do you remember what the number was?

[Ben Carlson]

I don't remember the number, but it's. They had to put some curbs on this stuff in South Korea in terms of the leveraged ETFs. And it sounds to me this feels like crypto to me, where the crypto accounts just get taken out because the leverage is so high. I can't believe that they're allowing five times leverage for an account that size for any company just by hitting a. That's crazy. Right.

[Michael Batnik]

Why not? Six times?

[Ben Carlson]

But here's the thing.

[Michael Batnik]

Why stop there?

[Ben Carlson]

These, as these other countries learn about the stock market. And some of these. A lot of these other countries. I talked about this with Josh did, actually, where a lot of these other countries don't have nearly the ownership we have or like the institutional knowledge of the stock market, because there's been just more time here to gain that knowledge. I think they're going to supercharge these cycles. Kind of like crypto. The crypto cycles all happen faster, Right? The boom and the winter and the boom and the winter. I think that's going to happen with a lot of these individual countries as their young people learn the stock market. And I think eventually it's going to be a good thing for them as long as they don't get totally blown out and are broke and have to declare bankruptcy.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know if I share your optimism with Lee Seung Ho.

[Ben Carlson]

No. Okay. Well, the fact that he's going back for more leverage, obviously that's not a great sign. But I do think that these other countries, because all the barriers to entry have been knocked down. Getting involved in the stock market, that's going to be a huge tailwind for global stocks in the years ahead. Because if you look at the ownership ranking, like Japan, 15% of the households own stocks, versus 65% here, that's a tailwind for global equities in the years ahead. And it's a tailwind for US equities too, if they put money here. Don't do with five times leverage, maybe. Yeah, that'd be my only note. Great story, though. I really liked it. Okay. Story in the Wall Street Journal. Blackstone rolls out new private market funds, this time with Vanguard. I guess this is another. So this says new offerings for individual investors follow exodus from private credit funds earlier this year. I guess this is another case of Jack Bogle rolling over in his grave. Although people say that and he was against ETFs. And ETFs are a massive part of Vanguard's business now. Yeah, Right. So they're going to do this through Wellington, which is actually where Bogle started. That's where he got his start. Remember, the Wellington funds have gone. Gone back forever. I'll be curious to see how this does with Vanguard. Do you think this is mostly institutions that'll be doing it through Vanguard? Do you think this will actually be individuals?

[Michael Batnik]

This is going to be offered through, I think the article said, through Merrill, for Merrill lynch investors to start.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

So the story is Vanguard will manage the indexed equity and indexed and active fixed income sleeves in the new All Markets Fund. Wellington will provide active equity and liquidity management while Blackstone is managing all of the private assets. So a Vanguard spokesperson said the reality is markets have changed because obviously they were asked about what Jack Bogle would think, who famously said, don't, don't try and find the needle in the haystack, just own the haystack. So they said the reality is the markets have changed. The haystack now includes private markets which our clients today just don't have much access to. By getting involved, we aspire to lower the cost and complexity of investing in private assets over time.

[Ben Carlson]

So this is like the first, this is the precursor to having target date funds eventually hold these, right?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, yeah, I think, I think that's inevitable. And I, I think, I think it did say that Vanguard investors will eventually have access to this.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that makes, I don't know, I guess if you're going to do, do this, doing it so in a diversified manner like this makes sense. I don't know how they handle like rebalancing and such, but I understand the

[Michael Batnik]

argument that private markets are so much bigger now. Forget about just like the growth equity stuff, but private credit infrastructure, there's a lot of, you know, the world doesn't look the way, the way it did 40 years ago.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, let's talk the economy. I like this one from Carlisle Group. They talk about what the World cup revealed about America and they, they talk about people learning about the consumption habits here. There's some really interesting patterns here. Now we talked in recent weeks about the fact that low mortgage rates from people really help their disposable income and their spending. 135 million US households, 50 million own a mortgaged home, virtually all of which have been financed by long term fixed rates. And so they're saying like, that's a, that's a big hedge. And if you want to think about this in investment terms, I explained this to someone recently. Having a fixed rate mortgage is like you're shorting the dollar. For all the people who say the dollar is going to decline forever and it's, it's toast. And you know what you want to do in that situation? You want to have a fixed rate mortgage for as long as you can, because that's short the dollar. So they say measured by the current distance between rates on new mortgages, which is almost 6.5%, which is over six and a half percent, and in the effective rate paid on the outstanding Stock of mortgages. So that's 4.3%. So you take everyone who has a mortgage right now, what's their Average rate is 4.3%. You would be paying six and a half percent. 6.6%. Disposable income among these households is 300 billion higher than it would have been if mortgage rates automatically reset to market levels as is common in other economies. So that savings. That's why so many people have been able to spend so much money. You locked in a low rate now. Here's another one. This is really interesting.

[Michael Batnik]

Speaking of World cup, somebody sent us a video showing what people spent at the World cup and what. What you just mentioned in excess. What? $300 billion. It all went to FIFA, by the way. I have no idea.

[Ben Carlson]

Is.

[Michael Batnik]

Is FIFA the organization that gets the money? I don't know how that works.

[Ben Carlson]

Well, yeah, they run the World Cup.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. That's where all the money went.

[Ben Carlson]

I want.

[Michael Batnik]

Can I. Can I show you this. Share this video with you? Did you watch this video, Ben?

[Ben Carlson]

I did not.

[Michael Batnik]

This is unbelievable.

[Ben Carlson]

How much did you spend on your ticket?

[Michael Batnik]

$50,000.

[Ben Carlson]

20,000. What do you do for a living?

[Michael Batnik]

I'm a model.

[Ben Carlson]

30,000. What do you do for a living? I reach high. Made a lot of money.

[Michael Batnik]

200,000.

[Ben Carlson]

What do you do for a living?

[Michael Batnik]

A PE in Hong Kong. 30,000. 30,000.

[Ben Carlson]

What do you do for a living? Streamer. I've been doing this since I was 11. Not enough.

[Michael Batnik]

There's no experience like the World cup final.

[Ben Carlson]

And what do you do for a living?

[Michael Batnik]

I'm chairman CEO of the Kansas City Chiefs. I don't know. Friend gave it to me.

[Ben Carlson]

And what do you do for a living? I were philanthropist.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

What did you do?

[Michael Batnik]

We used to own an auto trader. We bought SAP software to the tune

[Ben Carlson]

of millions of dollars.

[Michael Batnik]

They invited us to the game.

[Ben Carlson]

What do you do for a living?

[Michael Batnik]

We make Welch's fruit snacks, which they're selling all over the place.

[Ben Carlson]

No, wait. You're the owner of Welsh's?

[Michael Batnik]

Yes.

[Ben Carlson]

What is your net worth? You can Google me. Got hooked up with a good. You know how much they would have cost? 30,000. What do you do for a living? Organic tick control.

[Michael Batnik]

I'm a guest today. I didn't spend $1.

[Ben Carlson]

What do you do for a living?

[Michael Batnik]

8 mile. Spend anything. Invited me.

[Ben Carlson]

What do you do for a living?

[Michael Batnik]

I'm a consultant. Guest consultant. That's Christy. We're really lucky. We're guests of Verizon.

[Ben Carlson]

What do you do for a living?

[Michael Batnik]

I work for Google. 96,000.

[Ben Carlson]

What do you do for a living? I'm a painter of houses. 73,000.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, you got the point.

[Ben Carlson]

Jeez.

[Michael Batnik]

There are. There's levels to this. Like, there's people that make a good living, there's people that have assets, and then there's people that spend $96,000 and $200,000 to go to the World Cup.

[Ben Carlson]

Jeez.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, all. Ben, All. All from a. From a fixed mortgage.

[Ben Carlson]

That's right. That's where it came from.

[Michael Batnik]

They locked in their mortgage and they spent the difference on the World cup finals.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, listen to this one. The total outlays of 45 million US households is equal to nearly 70% of the entire Chinese economy. So they compare just the 45 million richest households in the USA.

[Michael Batnik]

No, 45,000.

[Ben Carlson]

You said 45 million households. That account to combine for nearly $15 trillion in annual outlays. That's equal to three times the size of the entire German economy. 70% of GDP of China. This is a third of the population and has not only been insulated from the inflation shock, but also exhibits propensity to spend out of wealth and income. So it's just. It's showing how. How much we love to spend in this country, essentially. And that. That 45 million households is such a big amount too. It's. It's not like the top 10%, it's the top third or something is basically an economy unto itself. It's a massive, massive number. Think about how much bigger China is than us. And this. These 45 million households are almost as big as the Chinese GDP. Pretty insane.

[Michael Batnik]

Unbelievable. All right, so Google reported earnings last week, and I want to read you something that the CFO said, which is emblematic of everything happening in hyperscaler AI world.

[Ben Carlson]

By the way, my anchorman meme from last week or two weeks ago was kind of spot on. They're all turning on each other.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't believe you.

[Ben Carlson]

Open source versus closed source versus fighting meme, right? They're all turning on each other.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

And I have no. You always make fun of me for not taking a stance, but the whole open source versus closed source versus I don't care. Okay? I really don't care. Is that okay to have a stance

[Michael Batnik]

considering that you just discovered Apple Pay? I'm not surprised you don't have a stance of this.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't care.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay? She was asked about. About their capex because they raised it again. They just reported a negative free cash flow for the first quarter. I don't know if ever.

[Ben Carlson]

But I think it was for the first time ever, a negative free cash flow. Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

She said we're still in a supply constrained environment. I think we said this now for multiple quarters in a row. We are seeing very strong demand both from external cloud customers as well as across the business. Our goal is to invest as long as we see an attractive return on that investment. As Sundar mentioned earlier, we do take a long term view, so we take multi year view at what the needs are as well as focus on next year in the near term and building aggressively to meet those demands. As you've seen, while we have increased our capacity quite significantly over the past three years, the demand still outpaces that investment. We are just like the rest of the industry working in a supply constrained environment.

[Ben Carlson]

Stock's down almost 20%. Google is selling 18 drawdown right now.

[Michael Batnik]

They had a monster quarter. I was surprised at the degree of the sell off. I think the Cloud was up 82% year over year. Revenue was up. Was it 14, 14%. YouTube was up 24. I, whatever. Maybe I'm getting the numbers a little bit wrong. But, but investors are taking a. Investors are taking, they're starting to push back against all the spend and, and the hyperscalers are saying, we're still going.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

We're not slowing down.

[Ben Carlson]

How long did this game of chicken last? I don't know. Stock market dependent, I think, I think

[Michael Batnik]

we have a long way to go. I don't think, I don't think that Sundar is going to say, oh, our stock is down 25%. We have to completely change everything. I think if it's down 45, yeah, that's different. But we have a long way to go.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I must, I think 40% is kind of lying in the sand when you start going, okay, what are we doing here? I don't know.

[Michael Batnik]

All right. Speaking of earnings, Blackstone was asked about B CRED. Obviously they have $324 billion in the private wealth channel.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, that's a lot of money.

[Michael Batnik]

A lot of money. And they said that redemptions were elevated in, in, in April and May and they're starting to, they're starting to, to slow down. We really haven't heard much about private credit in a while. What's the time Blue Owl has been in the news.

[Ben Carlson]

This was bound to blow over just because it doesn't happen all at once. That's the thing with private markets. They're. It's. If it's going to be a train wreck, it's going to be a boring one.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, I don't. The only reason why, why I push back against that is because there's always defaults happening and the media is so thirsty to report on this that you know, it, you know, things have blown over like when they're, when there hasn't been any reporting about it.

[Ben Carlson]

Crazy thing is Blue Owl is still down 64% from the all time highs.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. The stock has, a stock hasn't bounced at all. Blackstone has bounced quite a bit.

[Ben Carlson]

Do you still own any of these names?

[Michael Batnik]

No.

[Ben Carlson]

Because for a while you did. Okay. No, you blew out.

[Michael Batnik]

You know, it's funny, I was thinking about, I was thinking about buying Blackstone back again today, but I do not. I do not. And I did not.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, so there are, there are a lot of opportunities. You wanted to buy a blown out stock right? Now that it's, it's seems bizarre during a bull market, the amount of companies you can buy that are down 30, 40, 50%. Pretty, pretty wild.

[Michael Batnik]

Yes. And if you go, if you line item, the companies are getting blown up, there's all great reasons, right.

[Ben Carlson]

As usual.

[Michael Batnik]

Right. Like you wouldn't look at the stock and be like, well, why is Nike down 55%?

[Ben Carlson]

Right? Oh, we, we heard about that from people which I had to represent a little. I got a Nike T shirt on today and credit to me, my kids are going to camp this week. So that's why we're recording early. Recorded. Ask the compound early too. This is what a pro I am. I change shirts because I don't want to be wearing the same shirt in two videos this week on the compound. Right. Is that a pro or is that a pro?

[Michael Batnik]

That's standard. That's a standard Tuesday for me, my friend.

[Ben Carlson]

But the. I put an email in here, we don't have to read it, but everyone, a bunch of people told us and said listen, Nike is not a thing for young people anymore. Young people have so many more options that it's just not the brand it once was. And that that explanation make so many people made that point like it's just Gen Z, younger millennial people. Nike doesn't have the hold on them like it did older generations.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, you know what? You and I, my friend, will be buying Nikes to the grave.

[Ben Carlson]

I, it's still my favorite brand. I think I love Nike, so I'm still representing and I just can't believe the stock's down 75%.

[Michael Batnik]

Are you going to buy it?

[Ben Carlson]

I did once and I blew out of it. I nah yeah, me either.

[Michael Batnik]

Not interested. All right, this is good news. More executives are raising their estimates than maintaining or cutting them. So we're looking at something called the S&P 500 EPS guidance momentum score, and it is at the highest levels in. As long as this chart goes back, it's been a great earning season.

[Ben Carlson]

So this is why valuations are falling. But the funny thing is, when valuations are rising, no one ever questions it. When valuations are falling, everyone questions it. Of course valuations are falling, but that's because we can't trust the earnings. But when valuations are rising, people say how overvalued the stock market is. People don't question it. They're right. Stocks are overvalued.

[Michael Batnik]

Right, right, right, right. Here's another great chart from exhibit A. We're looking at the quarterly earnings Revision tracker for Q2, Q3 and Q4, and Q3 and Q4. Those. These are estimates. Q2 is actual end estimates.

[Ben Carlson]

And this chart looks like a. Looks like Matt fat fingered it on.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, this is Google.

[Ben Carlson]

It's all Google because. Wow, that's crazy.

[Michael Batnik]

So now, in fairness, a lot of the eps in Google is other investments and stuff, but still.

[Ben Carlson]

So they took the estimated EPS up 10% or so on their own, essentially.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know, whatever. That's. It's.

[Ben Carlson]

It's a lot because it went from 80 to 90 or something.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Wow.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, more of the same in terms of what financial companies are saying about their customer. This is from Capital One. Shout out to the transcript for pulling this. The US consumer and the overall economy remain resilient despite the high energy prices and everything. When you pick up the news every day, one would think the world is falling apart. Unless if you listen to animal spirits.

[Ben Carlson]

Do you say the world's falling apart?

[Michael Batnik]

What?

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, I got you. I got you. Took me a sec.

[Michael Batnik]

Actually, the portfolio that the consumer continues to perform remarkably well. The unemployment rate in June was lower than in February before the tariff conflict began. Jobless claims remain low. Job creation has rebounded over the past few months. Here, here. Here's American Express. US consumer spending was up 11, the highest level of growth since Q1 2018. US consumer spending was up 11%. Now, this is the upper end of the K, right? The. You definitely put. The World cup is definitely going on the Amex card.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah, for sure.

[Michael Batnik]

We continue to see good engagement from our younger customers. Millennials and Gen Z, which make up the largest share of U.S. consumer spending, remained our fastest growing cohorts this quarter. So check this Out. So travel and Entertainment was up 30% year over year. No kidding. The World cup is in here.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, did all those, did all those credit card companies bounce back? Remember the, it's been so long now the Citrini report that software was going to end credit card companies. Is that a thing anymore?

[Michael Batnik]

They didn't say it was going to end credit card companies, members.

[Ben Carlson]

Credit card companies got dinged on those. You remember that? That was part of it.

[Michael Batnik]

I think credit card companies got dinged because everybody was going to have, going to be out of a job and credit quality was going to deteriorate.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

Anyway, yes, they have Visa. Visa is ripping. So is MasterCard. But I thought this was interesting and I want to ask you a question, Ben. So I love how American Express always breaks us down in terms of the year over year growth. So baby Boomers are up 5%. They're not spending that much anymore. Gen X 10% growth. Millennials 14%. Gen Z up 40%. They're now 7% of card spending. Millennials and Gen X are 31 to 36% of the total pie. Baby boomers are 27%. Is income inequality even more pronounced for younger people? You see all these people, all these, all these videos, like the younger people at the World cup and you see these 20 year olds spending $60,000. It feels like the have and the have nots are even more pronounced. Now. I'm not a young person, so I'm making this up, but it seems like the, the, the haves and the have nots are even more pronounced for, for people 25.

[Ben Carlson]

It does feel like in the 2010s coming out of the great financial crisis, it felt like everyone was on the same playing field.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

The same level. No one had money. Yeah. No one was bragging about how rich they got. Or that makes sense. I wonder too if part of this is just a low base effect of 40% year over year where people start out low on their credit cards and they ratchet it up pretty quickly. But yes, I do think that it seems like anecdotally, at least I don't have the evidence behind this that young people. There's never been a wider range of outcomes where people down here are like, oh my gosh, I'm never going to buy a house and other people are making more money they ever thought possible at 25 or something.

[Michael Batnik]

And obviously Amex has broken through to this cohort of younger gen Zers with money. 65 of new accounts were acquired from millennials and gen Z's.

[Ben Carlson]

Geez, so they. It's because they like all the credit card points. And Amex has a lounge. Not me.

[Michael Batnik]

You're an anti lounge guy. Famous.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, hold on. In fairness, no offense to Grand Rapids, but do you guys have a lounge?

[Ben Carlson]

Brand new. We're putting brand new terminals in. They put a brand new lounge in. You have to tell me to get there.

[Michael Batnik]

A brand new terminal.

[Ben Carlson]

Well, they're like extending these brand. Yeah, they're like redoing the whole airport. New terminals are extending. Hope we get more flights because I'm sick of having all the layovers everywhere. But they put a new lounge in. Will I go use it? No.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, come on.

[Ben Carlson]

No. Because I live 10 minutes from the airport. I get up.

[Michael Batnik]

All right.

[Ben Carlson]

And I walk through. And I'm not going to wait at the airport forever. All right. Speaking of, I'll go down to this. Visa did this report about the great wealth transfer. And we've seen this chart before, but Gen X and millennials are ahead of boomers on a per capita wealth basis at the same age. This is real inflation adjusted net worth per capita by age. And this is just. It's hard to believe that we got to this place, especially coming out of the 2010s. So they show, people talk about this great wealth transfer. It's like $90 trillion or 100 trillion or whatever. It's just going to all go to rich kids. That's the thing. They show that 75% of it or so is going to go to people who are in the top 10%. So all that wealth is getting. And they looked at and they said if the $36 trillion being passed down, like take away charitable goods and taxes and all this stuff, it's going to be 36 trillion over the next 20 years. It said 28 of that 36 trillion will be saved, 8 trillion will be spent. So most of it is just going to go back right into portfolios and such. It's not going to be spent Even,

[Michael Batnik]

you know the meme like there will be signs as the boomers start to pass away and the kids, that kids, the, the 50, 60 year old, our peers that inherit the money, right. All of a sudden start buying cars and houses and boats.

[Ben Carlson]

And that's the thing. Or just that's their retirement plan.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, that too. It can.

[Ben Carlson]

I asked my wife this about some friends recently. I said, do you think we talk about finances? I think, do you think the life that they're living, do you think their whole plan is that they're gonna get money from their parents for retirement. Cause that's my thought. My wife's like, why do you ask me this question? I can think about this stuff.

[Michael Batnik]

The amount of money they're spending, they can't be saving.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm like, do you think that their plan is, like, mom and dad die and we retire?

[Michael Batnik]

Well, it's ironclad. People die.

[Ben Carlson]

It's true. It's true.

[Michael Batnik]

What's a better retirement plan than that?

[Ben Carlson]

It's a really morbid. But it's like, when do you get the money? 50 or 70. Right. That changes things. That's no joke.

[Michael Batnik]

Gonna be a really ugly life for some people. When they thought they were gonna. You know, when they. They have to, like, they're like, my parents are still alive.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

Die already. That's. That's grim.

[Ben Carlson]

That's gonna be a Netflix movie someday.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, Right.

[Ben Carlson]

Killed my parents. All right. Lucas Shaw, probably one of my favorite entertainment newsletters by far. People still watch a lot of Netflix. So he said people spend more time watching original series from Netflix than those of every other major streaming service combined. So Netflix for original programming still gets 57% of streaming. The next highest is Prime Video at 11. It's kind of crazy because I think everyone agrees the quality of Netflix's original stuff just kind of is not great.

[Michael Batnik]

It's in a major lull.

[Ben Carlson]

They haven't had anything good in really, really good in a long time.

[Michael Batnik]

It feels like the last decent thing I think I watched, I can remember was. Was. What was the Rabbit show? Was it Black Rabbit?

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah, the Jason Bateman.

[Michael Batnik]

And that was just Fine Beef season two. Was.

[Ben Carlson]

I.

[Michael Batnik]

It's. Man, it has been a minute since they produced anything remotely resembling quality.

[Ben Carlson]

So. But listen up. People spend a lot more time watching old shows and new ones. Viewers spend more time on reruns of TV shows than watching original tv, original film, and old movies combined. Which I guess is like. That was the old TBS and TNT strategy. Like, in usa, you'd watch reruns of old. I watch Seinfeld every day. Netflix accounted for seven of the 10 most streamed films, and they were all originals. It's kind of crazy. This is interesting. The podcasts are off to a slow start for Netflix. Shows are getting a few thousand viewers. That's not surprising. I feel like YouTube for podcasts is just a habit, and it's tough to make new habits.

[Michael Batnik]

Spotify.

[Ben Carlson]

What do you mean?

[Michael Batnik]

So.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, because Spotify does video.

[Michael Batnik]

Spotify does video now.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, so you're saying for a lot of people going to Netflix. It just doesn't. It's not a thing.

[Michael Batnik]

It's not a thing.

[Ben Carlson]

You don't have to.

[Michael Batnik]

Who has Netflix that doesn't also have Spotify?

[Ben Carlson]

But there's a lot of people who watch podcasts on YouTube though. And I don't think the audience is translating from YouTube to Netflix because it's an extra step. YouTube, I think, is easier.

[Michael Batnik]

I think that's right. I was on the train the other night.

[Ben Carlson]

It still might work, I don't know, with Chris.

[Michael Batnik]

And I spent 45 minutes just scrolling through Instagram, unbroked, of course. And I said to Chris, this is why Netflix stock is down 50. He said what? I said, never mind.

[Ben Carlson]

Because he was looking at his Instagram.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, he's not a stock market guy, you know. Okay, but, but yeah, so. So the number of, of hours viewed hours for Netflix has grown 1 to 2% a year. I'm telling you, man. Instagram, obviously. TikTok too. Just killing, just ruining our society. Just. It's a magnet for your, for your eyeballs. There's nothing more, there's nothing more fun than scrolling through the reels on Instagram.

[Ben Carlson]

It is. There's never been more options to do stuff to keep your attention than today. There's. It's just so many options. But you're right, you do that for like 10 minutes and you go, what? You kind of like, snap out of it. Like, what do I do? What did I just do?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. All right. Imax. Christopher Nolan's the Odyssey has broken the algorithm, notching our highest grossing second weekend in IMAX history with $48 million in global box office and only a mere 8% drop from opening weekend. This standup performance propelled imax to a $54 million weekend hour, third highest of all time, and takes the to date cum on the Odyssey to $140 million. 22% global indexing, which is 73% ahead of Oppenheimer, which was at $81 million at the same point. That's wild. Think about how big Oppenheimer was. This is 73% ahead of Oppenheimer.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, and Oppenheimer had the whole Barbie Heimer, you know, like, thing behind it. This, the word of mouth. Every person I've talked to that scene is like, oh my gosh. You have to like, this is the word of mouth on it is. Is undefeated. I'm going to see it tonight.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. I'm excited.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm going to see this evening. I can't wait. I'm not seeing it at imax. And because there was no tickets.

[Michael Batnik]

Dude, in New York City, they're doing a showtime at 2am that they're doing it.

[Ben Carlson]

There was a 145 showtime and the only seats available were the very two in the very front. How.

[Michael Batnik]

Who's going there? And it's still sold out for the next month or two.

[Ben Carlson]

So look at this. So the market cap for Imax is roughly 2 1/2 billion dollars. It's still a relatively small firm. You can have a long Runway on this stock.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, I think they're going to get bought.

[Ben Carlson]

By the.

[Michael Batnik]

By the way, that is not inside information or a hunch like there's been reporting. I think Bellamy was reporting on this. That they are. They are.

[Ben Carlson]

Why would you have inside information on imax? Because you wear the hat. Where would you get that inside information from?

[Michael Batnik]

The hat comes with a little fortune cookie inside.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, so Variety had last week, I said, why don't they just build more IMAX theaters? Because it's impossible to get into. And a number of people have said, why don't they just charge more for these? Have it be a market and people are spending $1,000 to see the Odyssey or something. But there's only 25, 70. What do you call it? Millimeter screens. Mm. What do you call it?

[Michael Batnik]

70.

[Ben Carlson]

Whatever screens that he shot. And that's when they say you have to watch it. There is one in Grand Rapids.

[Michael Batnik]

But wait, hold on. Because that's what he shot. That's what he shot the movie with.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, so. But there's only 25 of them in the U.S. i think there's 45 globally. One of them is in Grand Rapids, and it was built in 2001. And so it's like, why don't they have more? And here's what they say. Sources at IMAX confirmed a variety that many of the parts needed to build these specialized film projectors were simply no longer existing. The original design files were created roughly half a century ago, but they were never properly maintained. As a result, IMAX no longer has complete manufacturing blueprint. And much like the lost tribal knowledge of the Apollo aerospacecraft, very few engineers working today fully understand the systems. If AI can't figure this out, what are we building it for? AI, start working on this now. Give us more IMAX screens. Come on, Claude, what are you doing? Right? How can this honestly be the case? They lost the blueprints.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. This technology from the 1990s, we can't. We can't.

[Ben Carlson]

You can't reverse engineer this.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, that's what we do. Thank you, man.

[Ben Carlson]

What the heck?

[Michael Batnik]

Unbelievable.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm going to see it in a. In a nice lounge. I got the Dolby. At least where I can feel the, you know, whatever. I might. They might cut off this much of the screen. I'll be okay with that.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Now listen, I didn't see an imax. I had a great time. I. But I really want to see it in the imax. But I have to wait till September, I suppose.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. So we had a retirement party at RWM on Friday. Tony and Dina, Isola. So Tony and Dina joined us in. Were they here before you or did they come right after you?

[Ben Carlson]

It was not long after me. There was like a cascade of people that happened in the next six months after me or something.

[Michael Batnik]

So 2015.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. Great advisors, even better people. What was the name of Tony's original blog that we had to be like. You have to change. It was like malice. Something about. Yeah, malice.

[Michael Batnik]

So Tony and Dina joined us. We were. They were here. I don't know what they were. The 11th to 12th employee, whatever it was, they were first 15. We're now, we're now. We're now 90 people, something like that. And they have an incredible story. So Tony was a social studies teacher, is that right? Yeah, he was a history teacher for, I don't know, 20 years. So I think Tony started on Wall street, hated it, said, these are not a commodities trader. Yeah, yeah, these are. This is. These are not my people. I want to go do something meaningful in this world. So he went to be a history teacher. And I think he did that for 15 or 20 years.

[Ben Carlson]

In the city too. Okay, yeah, New York City. He was a teacher.

[Michael Batnik]

And Tony could not believe the rampant abuses being heaped on the teachers. The unsuspecting teachers buying all of these high priced, horrible financial products for their retirement accounts. And at one point in time, Tony said, I, I got to do something about this. I found my second calling. So him and Dina and they had been giving. They had been advising people casually about, you know, common sense, investing, index funds, buy and hold that, that type of stuff. He said, I got to make a difference in this world. I got to. I got to do it again. And so Tony and Dina started an official business and they started taking on clients. And their mission was to save the teachers. So Tony's blog, Malice for all, which is obviously insane, came from a good place where he said, I will not let this stand, not on my watch. Over my dead body are you going to sell these people variable I think

[Ben Carlson]

for a while he was. He was like, running a. They were running a financial advisor for firm at night while he worked during the day. And then finally had enough people come over to be like, all right, we could do this as an actual business. So. Yeah, right. This was. It was a total labor of love. It's a really cool story.

[Michael Batnik]

So anyway, we threw this party for Tony and Dina, and it was really lovely. They're just incredibly wonderful people. And Tony, in his wise words, said to me, your money is growing and your time is shrinking in terms of, like, why he wants to, you know, move on to the next chapter of his life. And I just love that your. Your money is growing, your time is shrinking.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, he said he wants to, like, enjoy his time now. They're in their 60s. He wants to, like, enjoy retirement and do it now while he's healthy and. Yeah, great people. Crazy that we have people at our firm that are retiring, though.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Yeah. Been doing this for a minute, Ben.

[Ben Carlson]

I guess so. All right, story time went. My kids went to. There's a place in town here called Michigan's Adventure. It's like a. It's not cedar point size. It's like half of that. So they got some roller coasters. They actually have the biggest. Largest wooden roller coaster in America. Get out. Which is not very confidence inspiring. Like, you look at all these old boards and like, how is this thing staying together? So anyway, my wife took them there. I worked during the day, and she said, hey, what? The park stays open until 8 o'. Clock. Meet us there at 5 and surprise the kids. So I surprised the kids at the water. They had half roller coasters and stuff, half water park. So I met them at the water park. And then I'm going to. Oh, we'll go ride some roller coasters for them at the end of the day. And so did that. And one of the things you learn about water parks is that I swear, at water parks, 50% of the parents have tattoos now on their own. This was not a thing when we grew up. Parents did not have tattoos. Maybe like, someone had a dad who was in the Navy who had, like the anchor on his arm or something. Right. And it was like, really faded. But this is the thing. Now that you notice that, like, all the parents have tattoos, it's kind of shocking how many there are as a way. I guess it's just a way to express yourself now. Interesting. Anyway, we go on this big roller coaster again. It's the biggest wooden roller coaster in the world, and it doesn't look to be that hard, but it's like big drops, you know, and it's straight. It's. All it is, is up and down. It's way faster than it looks. Called like, shiver my timbers or something. And my son George and my daughter Libby. No, get it, Tim?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, that's great.

[Ben Carlson]

My son George and my daughter Libby are sitting in front of me. And you've seen the videos of people on rides where they pass out. Their whole body goes limp like. Like this. You know that every drop. George passed out and he. He'd go on the drop, he'd pass out, and then he'd wake up and he'd put his hands in the air, Then he'd pass out and he'd put his hands in the air.

[Michael Batnik]

Wait, are you saying like, literally? I don't know what you're talking about.

[Ben Carlson]

You've never seen those videos of someone passing out on a ride before? Like the, the ones that shoot you up in the air and they like the, like the adrenaline or the, the blood flow to your head or something makes you pass out? His whole body went limp and he passed out. This happens to people. Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

I thought you were like. I thought it was a metaphor. Were you freaking out?

[Ben Carlson]

No. It was hilarious. This happens to Pete.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. I've never seen that before.

[Ben Carlson]

And I'm like, Libby grabbed it and she thought he was kidding. I'm like, no, his body was literally limp. But then he'd wake up and he'd put his hands back in the air and smile like he had no idea this was happening. No clue.

[Michael Batnik]

Unbelievable.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. So after every ride, now he's like, you have to make sure I don't pass out. All right, I'll watch you. All right. Recommendations?

[Michael Batnik]

I had no idea. All right, so as I mentioned at the top of the show, I'm like about 80, but I'll be 100 better tomorrow. We had visiting day on Sunday. Woke up at 5 in the morning, was on the road at 6. Visiting day started at 10, which is totally.

[Ben Carlson]

So visiting day. One time a summer, is it? Multiple times?

[Michael Batnik]

One time a summer.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, so it's a, it's a seven week camp and you visit them. I guess it's four, four weeks into it. And it was, it was great. It was, it was really, really nice. Had a great time. I. Kobe told Robin that he wants. Oh, actually, let me ask your opinion on this. He. He, he told Robin in confidence. There's a secret I couldn't hear.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

He wants cologne.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

So we are actually Going up again next weekend, which he is. I'm annoyed.

[Ben Carlson]

He's nine years old.

[Michael Batnik]

He's nine years old. I'm going up next weekend for rookie day for Logan. So I said to the director, I said, dude, come on, you have my kid for seven weeks. You're going to ruin two of my weekends. You're taking two of my weekends.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

So we're going up next week for Logan. What is a starter cologne? I have no idea. I've been out of the game for a while.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm not a. I stopped wearing cologne probably after college. I don't know. I don't know.

[Michael Batnik]

I knew you're the wrong person. Desk. Can I tell you something? I.

[Ben Carlson]

An ao de jo or something or maybe even like an Abber Cromie one for him or something just to get him started.

[Michael Batnik]

I. I love cologne. And I don't. I don't mind. I like when people smell good. I don't really wear cologne myself. I do it once a month.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't mind it either. I. I just. I feel like that's the kind of thing you stop once you get married. Right. No more cologne after you get married.

[Michael Batnik]

I wear it like here and there if I'm going out. Maybe. Anyway, I have to buy my.

[Ben Carlson]

So do you think he. He ran into other kids who. Duncan says, get him some brute. That'll put hair on his chest.

[Michael Batnik]

So I. So Robin told me and I. I asked him a few minutes there. I said, hey, Kobe, you have any girlfriends? He said, he's like, no. He said, but I'm going to prom. I said, oh, who are you going with? He goes, I don't know. I don't know her name. What do you mean you don't know? He goes, I don't know. She just. I said one word to her. I said, what word did you say to her? And she asked if he wanted to go to prom with her. And he said. I said, sure.

[Ben Carlson]

And I said, this is a camp thing. They have prom at camp. Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

He doesn't know.

[Ben Carlson]

So that's why he wants his cologne.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't start him off with deodorant first, maybe then clone.

[Michael Batnik]

He doesn't need deodorant. He's.

[Ben Carlson]

But I'm saying if you.

[Michael Batnik]

Anyway, so. So that was Sunday. Drove home, went to sleep. On Monday, I Woke up at 5:50. My brain just woke up and I walked to Starbucks and I was actually happy. I woke up early because I had a lot of work to catch up on. Friday was a retirement party. Saturday I was out all day, so I felt like I had some things to catch up on. Wanted to spend a couple hours before we went to the beach doing some work. So I was, I was happy. Took a walk to Starbucks and got outside and I just felt my stomach turn and I ran into the bathroom as projectile vomited. Now I made it into the toilet, but it was really weird and I felt better. I didn't really think anything of it. I just thought maybe I just ate something funny, came home, laid in a lounge chair and I took my AirPods out and I did have my case with me. I just put my AirPods on the top of my phone. Rue my, my one and a half year old boxer went to get my AirPods and before I could like react, she hit one of them, bounced onto the ground, right into the bottom of the pool. Oh, so that's my 11th pair of AirPods I suppose. Could be 15 at this point. Just chewing through AirPods. And at that moment I felt my stomach turn again. Ran inside and more projectile vomiting. And at that point I said, I don't, I don't feel good. I'm gonna go lie down. So over the next like hour or two, I threw up like two more times. So I threw up four times between 6:30 and I guess around 11.

[Ben Carlson]

I thought you were looking a little more slender there.

[Michael Batnik]

You know what, you know what's funny you should say that. I've been, I've. This has been a really poor diet summer for Michael, like all the other summers. And I went on the scale yesterday or today and I, I had to lose some weight, right? I didn't really eat anything, just been throwing up. Nothing. How's it possible? Not even a single pound H?

[Ben Carlson]

It's impressive.

[Michael Batnik]

Anyway, why am I oversharing all of this? Because I was in bed yesterday and I got to do some watching now. I was so tired yesterday, just drained. And I didn't even feel sick. I feel okay. I'm just tired. I slept like 20 hours in bed yesterday. But I did watch a few things. I tried to throw on, I tried to throw on Masters of the Universe, the He man movie.

[Ben Carlson]

I watched it with my kids this weekend. My kids loved it.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay, I loved it. I couldn't make, I, I four minutes

[Ben Carlson]

into it I said no, it's, Yeah, I was in. And I probably watched half of them because I grew up on He Man. Of course I have. I thought they did. It felt to me like it was one of those Thor movies. Feel like a Thor. Well, they kind of like poked fun. But it was also out in some other dimension or my. My son, he loved it. Okay. Can't wait for number two. Loved it.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, well, anyway, I, I got four minutes in. I said, this is definitely for George.

[Ben Carlson]

It's a kid movie.

[Michael Batnik]

This for George, not for me. I also made it. I made it about 25 minutes into Mortal Kombat 2. Also just really bad. Not as. Not quite as bad as.

[Ben Carlson]

Not surprisingly.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, I did watch a full movie. I watched Pressure. Pressure is with Brendan Frazier plays Ike Eisenhower.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, it's a D day one, right?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. So this is a true story. Apparently we won the war because we have better meteorologists. At least that's what legend. That's what they say in the movie. So the movie is about the. The 72 hours leading up to D day, and one meteorologist is battling another meteorologist. Should we or should we go? Because weather conditions have a lot to do about, you know, when you're storming the beach. And this is a great sick in bed.

[Ben Carlson]

That to me sounds like they've run out of World War II ideas.

[Michael Batnik]

No, dude, this is very good.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

It's a very good movie. A great sick in bed movie. Maybe. Maybe an airplane movie, but might be too boring for that. Under no other circumstances of what I watch this because it's not exactly the most riveting concept, but it was effective. They did great. And that was about it. Other than that, I just slept all day. But I forgot to mention this. Last week I watched Tuner. You're familiar with this?

[Ben Carlson]

No.

[Michael Batnik]

So Tuner is sort of. It felt like a Safdie Brothers movie because it was sort of chaotic, like uncut gems a little bit.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

And it was sort of like. It reminded me of Panic Room a little bit. Not quite sure why.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

Maybe because there was break ins. Anyway, Dustin Hoffman is in it. Very random. It's about a guy that has like this special supersonic hearing and so he could break into safes because he could hear like the click, click, clicks.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm interested.

[Michael Batnik]

Pretty good.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

Pretty fun. Pretty fun. I think I rented On Prime.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. All right. My wife and I watched Disclosure Day this week. Did you see the theater?

[Michael Batnik]

No, because Josh ruined it for me. Josh said it was terrible.

[Ben Carlson]

It's the kind of movie that you'd be glad you didn't see it in the theater. So it's got a 6.6 on IMDb and I think that's being generous. And I didn't hear a lot of the preview made it look awesome. Like, if you just watch the preview to go, oh, this is very interesting. It was just. The movie was kind of a mess. Like, it starts out, and it's just like, it feels. You're in the middle of a movie, and then there are some parts where you go, like, oh, that's interesting, because it's an alien movie. And it's. It's. It's just. It has a great cast. It's got Emily Blunt, who I love. It's got the guy who plays Prince Philip or Prince Charles, and I can't remember his name. It's got Colin Firth and all these different people. Great cast. And it felt like a Netflix movie. Like, it felt. It was just very. Yes, that. That's the best I can say. It was very disjointed. And it got done. My wife and I were like, wait, hold on.

[Michael Batnik]

Let's not gloss over the fact that this is not a Netflix movie. It was actually done by quite a famous director.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And you know what? I think I'm gonna give. This is his Jordan on the Wizards. I'm gonna pretend like it didn't happen. All right. This is Michael Jordan on the Wizards. Didn't happen.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, man. I'm not even gonna. I'm not even gonna watch it.

[Ben Carlson]

Nah, it was. It was quite bad. I just. I even, Like. Yeah, I was really. Again, there's parts where it like, oh, that's kind of interesting. But it just. It was. It was all over the place. And it just hit with a. Like, five minutes into the movie. I go, oh, no. Oh, no. You can just tell.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, no.

[Ben Carlson]

Had to watch the whole thing. Listen, he gave us Jaws in Indiana Jones. I'm not gonna fault him. And I think that's why there wasn't a lot of critical pushback on the movie, because he gets a free pass, and I'm okay with that. The guy gave us jaws.

[Michael Batnik]

E.T. e.T.

[Ben Carlson]

He gave us E.T.

[Michael Batnik]

close encounters.

[Ben Carlson]

This. I mean, Jurassic. This was probably like a 5.9 in my. In Ben scale. Just, poof. This the one. Like, you'd go, man, I'm so glad I didn't see that one at the theater. Some movies you have to see at the theater. This one you did not.

[Michael Batnik]

You know who I am seeing tomorrow?

[Ben Carlson]

What's that?

[Michael Batnik]

I'm very excited, if for nothing else, because of my love for I Love youe, man. Going to see Rush.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, what's that?

[Michael Batnik]

The band.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh. Oh, okay.

[Michael Batnik]

The scene where they're. When they go to the concert.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

And he's licking his base or whatever.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. I didn't know Rush was still. Is that. Is it the deal where, like, half the band's really dead and they've replaced

[Michael Batnik]

them or the drummer's dead?

[Ben Carlson]

Who knows? Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know. I'm very excited.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. All right. Good stuff. All right. You did it.

[Michael Batnik]

Credit to me. We don't miss shows. That's just not. Just not what we do here.

[Ben Carlson]

We show up every and every three months. Michael has a flu game.

[Michael Batnik]

Stop it. I'm relatively healthy for a pretty unhealthy time.

[Ben Carlson]

This happens to you, you say you never get sick. Duncan's gonna back me up here. You had this three months ago where you were in bed for 24 hours.

[Michael Batnik]

Again, I did have the flu this winter. I did.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. It happens to the best of us. I think we need to ask for cologne recommendations for your son. I think like an acqua di gio. You know what's a really good one?

[Michael Batnik]

I believe it's pronounced aqua di gio, maybe.

[Ben Carlson]

You know what's a really good one that you wouldn't think is that the Johnny Depp one. Whatever. His one is. Sauvage or something. Smells really good.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. You said you haven't worn a cologne since college.

[Ben Carlson]

Get back into the game. Telling you. Try it.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, the truth comes out savage.

[Ben Carlson]

Do it.

[Michael Batnik]

All right. Edible Spirits, the compoundnews.com personal emails, personal responses. Thank you for listening. We'll see you next time. Close your eyes.

[Ben Carlson]

Exhale. Feel your body relax. And let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry

[Michael Batnik]

that I wouldn't get my new contacts

[Ben Carlson]

in time for this class.

[Michael Batnik]

I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, my gosh. They're so fast. And breathe. Oh, sorry.

[Michael Batnik]

I almost couldn't breathe when I saw

[Ben Carlson]

the discount they gave me on my first order. Oh, sorry. Namaste.

[Michael Batnik]

Visit 1-800-contacts.com today to save on your first order.

[Ben Carlson]

1-800-contacts.