A 25 Year Bull Market (EP. 420)

Summary

Summary of "A 25 Year Bull Market" (EP. 420) – Animal Spirits Podcast

Release Date: July 9, 2025
Hosts: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson
Podcast: Animal Spirits Podcast by The Compound

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Overview

In this engaging episode of the Animal Spirits Podcast, hosts Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson delve deep into the dynamics of the current bull market, exploring its longevity, the factors fueling it, and potential future challenges. They intertwine discussions on market behavior, the impact of technological advancements like AI, regulatory changes, and socio-economic trends affecting young professionals. Additionally, the hosts touch upon lifestyle shifts, government policies, and even share personal anecdotes about movies, offering listeners a comprehensive view of the intertwined nature of markets and daily life.

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The Current Bull Market: A 25-Year Phenomenon

V-Shaped Recoveries and Market Symmetry

Michael opens the discussion by highlighting the rapid recovery of the stock market to all-time highs after declines of at least 15%, emphasizing that 2025 stands out as the fastest rebound:

Michael Batnick [04:54]: "The Wall Street Journal has this great chart showing the quickest recoveries to an all-time high following a decline of at least 15%. And by golly, Ms. Molly, is this number one."

Ben concurs, citing the increasing speed of recoveries over the years:

Ben Carlson [04:57]: "Getting faster. I've been saying this for years."

They analyze the symmetry between the duration of market declines and subsequent recoveries, noting that longer bear markets typically lead to longer recoveries. However, they observe that recent instances, such as those in 2020 and 2025, have deviated from this pattern with swift V-shaped rebounds. Michael attributes these anomalies to unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimuli, as well as unique policy impacts.

The Possibility of a 25-Year Bull Market

Ben proposes that the current bull market could extend to 25 years, drawing parallels with historical long-term bull markets like the post-World War II era:

Ben Carlson [10:11]: "I think it's possible we could just be on like a 25-year bull market."

Michael supports this by suggesting that innovations like AI, specifically referencing ChatGPT's emergence, have injected new momentum into the market, potentially prolonging the bull run:

Michael Batnick [11:16]: "If ChatGPT did not come out in November '22 to save the day, you could make the case that the bear market would have ended, the secular market would have ended, and this gave it a second set of legs."

They acknowledge the role of continuous economic interventions in sustaining the bull market but remain cautious about potential shifts should future bear markets adopt more traditional recession-driven declines.

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Financial Market Insights

Concentration in Mega-Cap Tech Stocks and Diversification Strategies

Michael discusses the dominance of mega-cap tech companies in the bull market and the resulting concentration of equity compensation among employees:

Michael Batnick [00:43]: "One of the defining features of those companies is the way that they compensate and employ their employees is through equity compensation."

Ben emphasizes the low-cost basis of these concentrated positions, leading to significant individual stock holdings. To address diversification challenges, Michael introduces Cash Financials' Cash Exchange Fund, designed to help investors diversify their concentrated holdings with lower fees and modern features:

Michael Batnick [01:00]: "They started with the NASDAQ 100 focused exchange fund... They're at $500 million in assets, which is pretty wild."

Vanguard's Foray into Private Markets

The hosts examine Vanguard's strategic move into private markets, traditionally dominated by high-fee private equity firms:

Ben Carlson [47:03]: "Vanguard will pull everyone else kicking screaming to their level or close to it."

Michael highlights that Vanguard's entry could pressure existing private market firms to lower fees, benefiting end investors seeking lower-cost alternatives:

Michael Batnick [47:28]: "All right. Good one. From Verdad Capital..."

They discuss the potential implications for private equity and the broader investment landscape, pondering whether firms like Vanguard can maintain their low-cost philosophy in more complex investment arenas.

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The U.S. Dollar and Currency Dynamics

Decline of the Dollar and Reserve Currency Status

Torsten Slok's analysis of the U.S. dollar is a focal point, with Michael presenting charts illustrating the dollar's decline:

Ben Carlson [20:38]: "It's like right now, what. And then he's got this great one."

They discuss the dollar's continued dominance in global transactions, noting its substantial share:

Michael Batnick [20:56]: "The FX transaction volume, the dollar is 88% of it."

Ben raises concerns about the dollar losing its reserve currency status and speculates on potential alternatives, dismissing options like Bitcoin and the Euro:

Ben Carlson [21:06]: "So something that always makes people really mad is the government debt stuff."

Government Debt and Tax Policy

The conversation shifts to government debt, with Ben critiquing the continuous cycle of tax cuts despite rising deficits:

Ben Carlson [22:00]: "But for some reason, I think rich people are like a deity to certain segments of the population."

Michael underscores the political challenges in addressing fiscal responsibility:

Michael Batnick [22:44]: "Well, neither party is motivated by it because under every presidential term, the deficit gets wider and wider."

They express skepticism about meaningful policy changes to curb government debt, highlighting the disconnect between public discourse and actual legislative action.

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Workforce, AI, and Economic Trends

Employment Challenges for Young Professionals

The hosts address concerns about the job market for recent college graduates, referencing emails from a college professor and data on military recruitment:

Ben Carlson [25:01]: "Maybe someone out there knows better, but this seems to be a very strong recession indicator."

Michael counters by suggesting that data might reflect a transition from a historically hot job market rather than an immediate crisis:

Michael Batnick [25:23]: "I'm going to reject that."

Ben points to low unemployment rates among young workers as evidence that the market remains robust:

Ben Carlson [25:23]: "We're all working off an insanely hot job market..."

The Impact of AI on Employment

They explore the potential long-term effects of AI and deregulation on job markets, cautioning about increased volatility and the emergence of new financial products:

Ben Carlson [15:00]: "We're entering the wild, wild west for the at least for the foreseeable future."

Michael underscores the uncertainty surrounding AI's role in future economic disruptions, relating it to past financial crises driven by unforeseen factors.

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Lifestyle Shifts and Economic Observations

Changing Household Expenditures

Michael presents a chart illustrating shifts in U.S. household spending over the past century, noting significant changes in categories like healthcare and housing:

Michael Batnick [30:00]: "Americans now spend more on healthcare than groceries, on housing."

Ben elaborates, discussing how goods once considered luxuries have become necessities, driving up living costs:

Ben Carlson [34:03]: "Think about all this stuff we have to spend on now that people did in the past."

Generational Savings Habits

The hosts touch upon the saving behaviors of Gen Z, citing a story from the New York Times about a 23-year-old teacher diligently contributing to her retirement fund:

Ben Carlson [50:00]: "Brinley Beckman is 23... she contributes 3% of her salary to an employee-sponsored retirement fund."

They contrast this with Gen Z men, who are more inclined towards speculative investments like Robinhood accounts, potentially leading to differing financial outcomes.

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Real Estate Market Challenges

High Mortgage Rates and Homeowner Struggles

Michael and Ben discuss the prolonged period of elevated mortgage rates and its impact on homeowners, using the example of Sean and Jennifer Glocker from Florida who face difficulties refinancing:

Michael Batnick [39:48]: "They can't refinance, so they're not carrying it any longer."

Ben highlights Cape Coral, Florida, as the worst housing market in America, with home prices tumbling 11% over two years:

Ben Carlson [45:28]: "They say home prices in that area have tumbled 11% in two years, the most of any major metro area."

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Despite declines in prices, Michael notes that the fundamental imbalance between supply and demand remains, driven by demographic trends:

Michael Batnick [45:37]: "There's just more demand than supply. And it is a demographic story. And that's not cyclical."

Ben suggests that housing markets are less sensitive to rate fluctuations if demand remains robust:

Ben Carlson [40:22]: "That's why even, like I said last week, even if housing prices fell, I wouldn't be worried at all because all it's going to take is for rates to fall for demand to come back."

They caution homeowners against gambling on falling mortgage rates to sustain their living situations, emphasizing financial prudence.

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Government Policies and Consumer Impact

Tariffs and Their Repercussions

The discussion shifts to recent tariff updates, with Michael dismissing their long-term impact on the market:

Michael Batnick [37:17]: "I don't care market doesn't care."

Ben shares a consumer's perspective on increased tariffs affecting everyday purchases, like green tea from China:

Ben Carlson [37:44]: "They said, here's the price. But then in the end, it's an additional... showing it as a tax."

They debate the effectiveness of such measures in balancing trade and consumer costs, with Michael ultimately expressing indifference towards market reactions.

Progressive Policies and Personal Narratives

Michael shares a personal story about considering purchasing a dream home despite financial impracticalities, reflecting on the tension between financial logic and personal fulfillment:

Michael Batnick [42:14]: "So life is not a spreadsheet. So I'm gonna make an... decision based on more than just numbers."

Ben reinforces this by highlighting the psychological value of assets like waterfront properties:

Ben Carlson [43:42]: "Honestly, as a personal finance, I sign off on this transaction because water gives you a premium to your life."

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Cultural Commentary and Personal Anecdotes

Reflections on Modern Life versus the Past

Michael and Ben explore societal perceptions of abundance, comparing past frugality to today's consumer-driven mindset. They reference tweets and historical data showing shifts in consumption patterns:

Michael Batnick [29:42]: "All right, so I am fully aligned with the fact... maybe we don't spend enough time highlighting how relatively good we have it."

Ben adds context by discussing how necessities have evolved, making modern life more expensive despite technological advancements:

Ben Carlson [34:03]: "Kids activities... Think how much more money we spend on our kids' subscriptions."

Movie Reviews and Personal Experiences

Towards the episode's end, the hosts share their experiences with recent movie releases, providing a lighter respite from economic discussions. Michael recounts his disillusionment with recent Jurassic World installments and Clown in a Cornfield, while Ben praises How to Train Your Dragon live-action adaptation.

Michael Batnick [57:07]: "I don't think I ever saw 'Ancient'... It just sucked."

Ben Carlson [62:21]: "My kids loved it. It was a very good movie."

These anecdotes serve to humanize the hosts and offer listeners relatable content amidst complex financial topics.

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Conclusion

In this episode, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson provide a multifaceted analysis of the enduring bull market, interwoven with insights into regulatory impacts, technological advancements, and socio-economic trends. They balance technical financial discussions with personal stories and cultural commentary, delivering a rich and engaging narrative that highlights both the opportunities and challenges in today's economic landscape.

Listeners gain a deeper understanding of market dynamics, the influence of AI and private equity, the complexities of government policies, and the evolving nature of household expenditures. The episode underscores the importance of diversification, financial prudence, and maintaining a balance between economic logic and personal fulfillment.

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Notable Quotes:

• Michael Batnick [04:54]: "The Wall Street Journal has this great chart showing the quickest recoveries to an all-time high following a decline of at least 15%."

• Ben Carlson [10:11]: "I think it's possible we could just be on like a 25-year bull market."

• Ben Carlson [21:06]: "So something that always makes people really mad is the government debt stuff."

• Michael Batnick [29:42]: "This is also a defining story of our time. It's obviously a factor of inflation and..."

• Ben Carlson [34:03]: "Think about all this stuff we have to spend on now that people did in the past."

• Michael Batnick [42:14]: "So if you run the numbers and you go, I can afford this monthly payment even though I'm gonna have to Stop doing this, it's worth it for me. That's a trade-off."

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For more insights and discussions on markets, life, and investing, subscribe to the Animal Spirits Podcast.

Transcript

[Michael Batnick]

Today's episode is brought to you by Cash Financials, who operates Cash Exchange Fund. Ben, One of the defining features of the bull market over the last 15 years has been mega cap tech and tech in general. And one of the defining features of those companies is the way that they compensate and employ their employees is through equity compensation. So you've got all these people running around with gazillions of dollars of stock in their company, heavily concentrated. We, we've spoken on the show about Nvidia, how many millionaire employees they have. So these people are heavily concentrated in one individual stock.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. Low cost basis.

[Michael Batnick]

So I met with Srikanth who is the founder of this company and he was at, at Uber. So he was looking for a way to diversify out of Uber and into a broader basket of stocks. And the way that this was traditionally done was through an exchange fund. Okay. So their flagship product is an exchange fund, but it's, it's built for the modern investor. So this product, the exchange fund is not new. The wirehouses used to do this very common theme where you will exchange your fund for a basket of diversified stocks and some other things. But it was, was and is very illiquid. That's part of the feature of it. But high fees, high fees. So he said there's got to be a better way. So they started with the NASDAQ 100 focused exchange fund. Lower fees started at 60 basis points per million minimums with 400k just a year after launch. The proof is in the pudding. They're at $500 million in assets, which is pretty wild. So they have a new one, a new S&P 501 and an S&P 500 growth fund where they're utilizing the 351 transaction, which I think we spoke with Meb about that, to help employees, or help people, not just employees, to help people with concentrated positions get more diversified. So they're working on this with our friends at Alpha Architect and I'm bullish on this, but the proof is in the pudding. $500 million and not a lot of time. So if you want to learn more about the exchange Fund, hit the link in the show. Notes.

[Ben Carlson]

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[Michael Batnick]

So 5, 8, bench 190, 190.

[Ben Carlson]

Come on, give me a little credit. I don't do bench much anymore. So that's. My days of benching and squatting are past me.

[Michael Batnick]

Same.

[Ben Carlson]

Anyway, it's such a much easier process than the first time I went. I literally had to drive downtown, go to this glass building, go into a boardroom, meet with someone, fill out paperwork, and then they could tell me, here's your. You know, so it's just much easier. So join the thousands of parents who trust fabric to help protect their family plan today in just [e-mail] spirits that's meetfabric.com spirits M E T fabric.com Spirits policy is issued by Western Southern Life Insurance Company. Not available in certain states. Prices subject to underwriting and health questions. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching.

[Michael Batnick]

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do.

[Ben Carlson]

Not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

[Michael Batnick]

This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Ben, last week you mentioned that people said we don't talk about the stock market as much or enough. Is that true or did somebody say that?

[Ben Carlson]

People. One person.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, well, they.

[Ben Carlson]

People. Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. Well, let's talk about the stock market, shall we?

[Ben Carlson]

Let's do it.

[Michael Batnick]

All right. As improbable as it might have been just a couple of months ago, we're back at all time highs. Unbelievable. The Wall Street Journal has this great chart showing the quickest recoveries to an all time high following a decline of at least 15%. And by golly, Ms. Molly, is this number one. Yeah. Look at that.

[Ben Carlson]

Getting faster. I've been saying this for years.

[Michael Batnick]

Chart can. Matt made a scatter plot that shows that there is a symmetry in stock market declines to all time highs, meaning the longer it takes for the stock market to bottom, the longer it takes for it to reach an all time high. Which intuitively makes sense because generally speaking, the longer the bear market takes to bottom, the deeper the decline is. Okay, so makes sense there. But what you'll notice is and I had to make two versions of this chart. So the first version of this chart shows just the number of days. So the number of days to the bottom and then the number of days to the all time high peak to.

[Ben Carlson]

Trough, then trough to peak.

[Michael Batnick]

Exactly. So for example, in 2025 it took 48 days to make the lower. And what is that? 80 days to make the. Is that 80?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay. Then I had to make another version.

[Ben Carlson]

That eyesight person I really am.

[Michael Batnick]

Then I have another per. I had to make not to brag.

[Ben Carlson]

Better than 2020 over here. I'm the only person in my family who doesn't have some sort of glasses.

[Michael Batnick]

Or credit to you, superpower. I had to make another version of this chart where I said just remove the. The days and just show me the year. And so I think what you'll notice is 2020 and 2025 both V down or not V down. Just a V straight down, straight up. And we've, we've spoken a lot about this. Is this just going to be the norm moving forward now? I don't know about that. I think 2020 was a very, very specific sort of decline in recovery that was fueled by obviously a bazooka of monetary and fiscal stimulus specifically. And the 2025 was also a unique one in the sense that it was an exogenous impact of new policy that got walked back. So I say that to say that. Whoa. Safe to say if we allow myself to introduce myself, if we have another bear market, if and when we have another bear market that is more of.

[Ben Carlson]

A traditional recession, 2022 on here looks pretty normal.

[Michael Batnick]

Exactly, exactly. So if we have another one of those where it's a traditional recession and earnings decline, then sure, like the V is not the norm. It just, it did happen twice in the last five years.

[Ben Carlson]

My thinking is that we haven't outlawed long term, longer term bear markets. But more of the corrections will be of the V nature. I think they're going to have. That's my thought is those bear markets are probably going to be pretty similar. The corrections themselves are going to happen quicker.

[Michael Batnick]

Maybe, but. Maybe. But they are a function of what causes the bear market.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. So I looked at the drawdowns and where we were. So the NASDAQ 100, I think these are total returns. So. But it's close enough. Nasdaq was down 23%. The S&P was down 19. And looked at emerging markets in European stocks too, which were down like 14 or 15% from the lows. The Qs are now up 33%. This is through yesterday, this is through Monday. We're recording this Tuesday morning. But even emerging markets are up 26%, European stocks are up 25% and then the S&P is up 25%. It's pretty darn good return. Remarkable for how many months has it been? Yeah, three months essentially.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Pretty crazy. We're three months from liberation day, right?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

So.

[Michael Batnick]

What I like to see is I look inside the bull market. Unlike you Ben, I actually peel the layers back, lift up the hood, see what's going on. Kevin Gordon tweeted 7% of Russell 3000 members.

[Ben Carlson]

Listen, I don't like to go in the hood when I, I, I make this joke all the time. I got my oil changed last week. They show me the dipstick. What does it mean to me?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, 7, 7% of Russell 3000 members made a new 52 week high at the end of last week, which is the highest so far year to date. It is not just the Mag7 names, in fact, it is definitely not just Mag7 names. You are seeing broader participation in the areas in which you would like to see it. We are seeing financials break out, we are seeing industrials breakout. So this is healthy, this is exactly what you want to see. I'm not making a prediction about the future, not saying that the pullback can't start today, which you know, I guess would feel appropriate given that we've gone straight up, but this is a very, very healthy bull market. Forget your opinions, I don't care. Just look at what investors are doing as a whole. And interestingly there's been a lot of talk over the last decade about the impact of index funds and propping stocks up and making sure that the tide is just going in the same direction. And I don't want to dismiss that entirely because I think it's very difficult to say that all of this money coming into the market in that vehicle is not impacting prices in certain areas. I'm sure that it is. But it is interesting to see the dispersion within the Mag 7. So Bespoke has this chart showing the change year to date. And there's Apple, Tesla and Google, big time lagging. And there's Meta, Microsoft and Nvidia. So the MAG7, they're breaking up, they're not just doing the same thing.

[Ben Carlson]

So this is all semantics because it doesn't really matter. But I think you could make the case that this is, I don't know, year 15, year 16 of a bull market I guess would be year 16. And we've just had minor corrections along the way. The one long term bull market people always talk about is the 1980s and 90s. But if you look historically like from the bottom of World War II, which I want to say was 1942, 41, something like that, the, the stock market bottomed way before the end of the war. Maybe it was 43, but from like 1943 to 1966, call it, we had like a 20 plus year bull market and there were some bear markets along the way, but there was never like the cataclysmic one that really threw people. That didn't really happen till the late 60s, early to mid-70s. You had a couple of those. I think it's possible we could just be on like a 25 year bull market.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, why not?

[Ben Carlson]

We have these quick whipsaws back and forth along the way. This is like obviously contingent on AI, but I think like we're in the range of that happening. How about that? Could this be a 25 year bull market?

[Michael Batnick]

Would that be like, yeah, we're in year 15, why not? I do think that it's, it's, we'll never know. But if, if ChatGPT did not come out in November 22nd to save the day, you could make the case that the bear market would have ended, the secular market would have ended and this gave it a second, second set of legs.

[Ben Carlson]

Don't you think you could have done this for so many different times in the bull market? Well, if that didn't happen, then this would have happened. And if that didn't happen, it's, that's like the whole like, well, if the Fed didn't step in, then we would be down 80% in the Great financial crisis. So I feel like that thing, that whole thing of like us getting saved continuously, that's just what happens. Oh Yeah, I know AI is, AI.

[Michael Batnick]

Is like an outlier, but you're 100% right. It's like looking at the super bowl winner and saying, well, if this balance and that tip pass, yeah, everybody who wins the super bowl has some luck and every bull market by definition is bailed out for various reasons.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. All right, I want to tell a story and I'm going to relay this to Investor behavior. I feel like you've told a lot of stories about driving lately, so I'm going to tell kind of a driving One. So I have a running path. I do. I go for a jog at work around lunchtime, and there's a hill I come up. So I like running up the hill because it's good for you. Right. Cardiovascularly. Is that a word? And I'm coming up the hill on my run, and I see this teenager in her car, and the car is, like, kind of stopped sideways on the road, and she's got her hands in her head, and. And there's a guy on the ground with a motorcycle. He obviously. I think what happened is she had backed up, not seeing him, because it's a hill. He must have been coming up on his motorcycle as she backed her car out of her driveway. The motorcycle guy had to basically lay his motorcycle down. So he's on the ground. She's got her head in her hands, calling someone. I'm jogging up, and I kind of run over, and I got my headphones in. I take them off, and I hey, is everything okay here? And the guy obviously was, like, in a world of pain. Not, like, really seriously injured, but he was in pain. And he's got his leather chaps on and stuff. And he gets up, and I notice he's got no helmet on. Right? He just got smoked by this car. And he's limping away, and he's kind of shaking out the cobwebs. And he picks his bike up, and his bike is all messed up, and he walks it over, and he kind of sits on the curb and just takes his big, deep breath. He's like, I'm fine, man. I'm fine. She's calling someone. Just get out of here. All right? I hope you're, you know, hope you're okay. And I just thought. I can't believe. So this is a Michigan thing. There's no law about wearing motorcycle helmets in Michigan. It's kind of. I think there's some insurance reasons for it. But if you ride your motorcycle, you can ride it without a helmet on. And part of me thinks that is insane. Like, how could we? Isn't that crazy? Like, there's certain states where you don't have to wear a motorcycle helmet. On the other hand, if you ride a motorcycle without a helmet on, that's your choice, right? You're the one putting yourself at danger. You're not really putting anyone else at danger when that happens. Right? It's up to you. And I just kind of got thinking about, like, that's kind of what the world we're heading into financially is, a world where no one has to wear a helmet of their motorcycle because the cycle, the pendulum of deregulation goes from one end to the other. So in the 2000s there was massive deregulation and that caused a housing bubble and it partially caused the great financial crisis. And then after the great financial crisis and we saw the supper and lending stuff, we said whoa, whoa, whoa, we have to rein this way back in. And people decided like we need way more regulation to save people from themselves because obviously we can't let that happen again. And then that went way too far. We've obviously over regulated and now we're going back to the deregulation. And I just think in the coming years like that there's going to be a lot of those accidents where people have to lay their bike down where like it's going to be the wild wild west. Robin Hood last week said they're going to do tokenization of private company securities. Right. We're going to get private equity and 401ks that we've been talking about. The ETF stuff that's coming is going to be absolutely insane.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, and then you've been open, open. I chimed in and said whoa, whoa, that's not our equity.

[Ben Carlson]

Well, right, but I'm just from the regulation perspective, I'm just trying to think like where will the next financial crisis come from? And I think it's going to be something like this that we probably don't know for sure. And that could be 5, 10, 15 years in the future or something.

[Michael Batnick]

When you say crisis, do you mean a crisis that takes everything down or do you mean just like a pocket of things that wipe certain out?

[Ben Carlson]

I, I guess it could be either one, but.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, so where's it coming from?

[Ben Carlson]

I, I don't know, but something with this. See the thing is like in terms of de deregulation, I hope that if we're going to deregulate everything that we. It really gets to the housing market more than anything. Just make it easier a blanket something making it easier for cities and municipalities to. To build. Make it easier for home builders to build.

[Michael Batnick]

Can I throw out a policy idea? Because you know me, I'm big policy guy. Why not make mortgages transferable? Now I'm sure there is very good reason why not to do that. But like that would, that would help.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, it does seem like there's a lot of stuff in the housing market that could. The thing is, I think deregulating financial products and financial services usually only benefits. It benefits more the asset managers and the investment managers than it does. The actual end retail investor.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, there's no doubt about that.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

Why do you think I own these? Why do you think I own these? Private equity companies.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, exactly. So I just think that. And the thing is there's going to be people who say, I don't care. This is good for me. So we talked to Leif Abraham from public and that podcast came out on Saturday, I think, and he walked us through this new tool they have that is unbelievable where I think it's called generatedassets.com, it's not on public yet, but it's going to be where you literally type in, listen, I want to own The S&P 500 minus the Mag 7, take out utility. You can like basically tell this thing you're any strategy you want and the AI will immediately put a back test for you. And I guess eventually it's going to be investable. And so I think there's going to be products like that that are going to be amazing for individual investors. There's going to be other stuff that comes out that's going to be people shooting themselves in the foot.

[Michael Batnick]

What was that? What was the Options ETF with DraftKings?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, there's going to be a draft king.

[Michael Batnick]

We spoke about it last week with Jason Zweig, how there's just a seemingly unlimited demand from investors for these sort of yield products that have a nominal distribution of 80% or whatever.

[Ben Carlson]

A yield max ETF selling call options on DraftKings is like the ultimate YOLO. Put it all together. Sports gambling options yield. I just there. It'd be great if we could just strike a good balance between. Right. Like we're going to protect people from this stuff or else we're going to let them be fine in here where I think now we're entering the. The wild, wild west for the. At least for the foreseeable future. And I think there's going to be really good stuff that comes from this. Probably. And really bad stuff.

[Michael Batnick]

Yep. Anyway, do you think. Do you think Powell's been vindicated? We've. We're getting more strong data. The odds of a recession peaked at, geez, almost 70% a couple of months ago. On. What is this? On Poly Market now we're down to 21% chance of a recession. You're looking at the Fed's decision in July to cut and they're not going to. What. What do you think? Was he right?

[Ben Carlson]

I think Powell has been a very good Fed chair and I think most of what they've done in the last three or four years hasn't mattered at all. I honestly think people give them too much blame or credit for what's happened. I think the, the situation plan the cycle playing out like it did. The f, they, they raised rates from 0 to 5%. It didn't really matter. I, I, I don't think that.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, when you say it didn't matter. It mattered to the housing market. What, what did it not matter to.

[Ben Carlson]

The economy because the housing market didn't bring the economy down? I think as far as like the whole soft landing thing, I feel like that was preordained. I don't think Powell could have really done anything that really would have stopped that.

[Michael Batnick]

What if he took that, what if he took rates to 8%?

[Ben Carlson]

Well, okay, come on. The extremes. But I'm saying based on what they did, it's like people are, are arguing about they should have cut a raise three months earlier, six months earlier. Not like then it would have, I don't think any of that really would have mattered. Yeah, like the, the mind on the details. So sure, I guess vindicated. But the, the vindication is we haven't. When's the last time we've had a soft landing conversation? The soft landing happened like there's no more conversation. People can't talk about is it a soft landing or hard landing? The soft landing happened a long time ago now. Like now what? Right, but, so what did it get to polymarket? 70% recession odds or something? I guess it's funny, at the time that probably made sense. Remember I was saying, like recession is your baseline. If we would have kept the tariffs on and I guess we'll talk about that in a minute. I guess the boy cried wolf is back on that. 70% odds of recession at that time actually were legitimate. I think.

[Michael Batnick]

So do I. Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Based on what was happening at the time. So what do you think? Was Powell vindicated or.

[Michael Batnick]

I still. No. I mean, not in my opinion. I think he should have cut.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. Again, I'm not like pounding the table on it. I keep seeing people saying like stocks are at all time highs. Why do we need to cut? That's ridiculous.

[Michael Batnick]

The stock market is not the barometer for what the Fed should or shouldn't do.

[Ben Carlson]

Exactly. I agree. Let's talk about the dollar. This is from Torsten Slok. He did a whole presentation on the dollar. What's happening? So we've talked about this. The dollar is down 10% the beginning of the year. It is kind of funny though. The dollar is basically back to where it was in early 2024, because we had a huge spike in the dollar in the fall, I guess, when people thought Trump's America's first policies were going to do. So we've just essentially round. Tripped.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

So it's like right now, what. And then he's got this great one.

[Michael Batnick]

And you know what? This is a great chart because we've shared charts about the weakest start for the dollar to a year since 1973. And if you just go to.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, zoom out a little.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, zoom out. Yeah, yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Cali's talked about this before, but he talked about the dollar as the world's reserve currency. And this is the. So the FX transaction volume, the dollar is 88% of it.

[Michael Batnick]

So this is it. If the dollar is not the reserve currency, what is? There has to be an alternative. Don't tell me Bitcoin. It's got to be something. It's not the euro. It's not China.

[Ben Carlson]

So something that always makes people really mad is the government debt stuff. And you talked about Steve Eisman a few weeks ago saying the deficit and government debt is all people just posturing and trying to look good for TV cameras or whatever. I've heard for my entire adult life, listen, government debt is too high. We have to raise taxes. Taxes have nowhere to go but up. Right. I've heard that my whole life, in my whole adult life, taxes have gone nothing but go down. So the Economist has this, this piece on the impact of the big beautiful bill, I guess they're calling it the Triple B now. And they show us some of the savings. But the costs are obviously immense. And obviously the biggest one is just extending the 2017 tax cuts. And it is kind of funny to me how they do these. So you look at one of the next charts, they show, like, here's the forecast out to 2050. It's like, listen, every four to eight years we get new tax policy. So how can you. Can you possibly. And it's showing, you know, debt to GDP going from 100 right now to 175 or something because of this. But it's funny, interest rates, interest payments as a percentage of GDP is going from, I don't know, three and a half to five and a half percent. To me, that doesn't sound that egregious. Obviously, it's much higher than it's been historically, but I don't know that that increase. But my point is, like, we always, we keep hearing people complain about this stuff, but obviously no one really cares to do anything about it, because all we do is keep cutting taxes. So why do we keep having this. These soapbox rants about the deficit and government debt if no one's ever going to do anything about it?

[Michael Batnick]

Well, neither party is motivated by it because under every presidential term, the deficit.

[Ben Carlson]

Gets wider and wider because who's going to raise taxes? It does seem to me like raising taxes on the rich is the easiest thing to do. But for some reason, I think rich people are like a deity to certain segments of the population. And it's like, no, we got to leave them alone.

[Michael Batnick]

For whatever reason because the. We should have the numbers here instead of just making it up. But we'll get to this next week. What the top 1% pay. But is it like. It's like. Is it like 45% of all federal income tax.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, but. But we're also lowering taxes for business ownership. And the wealthiest people own all the businesses, so bringing corporate tax rates down is helping them too. I would have assumed raising taxes on the wealthy. I agree it's like a disproportionate amount of the tax revenue comes from the top taxpayers. But I just wish we would stop having these soapbox things every four years from different.

[Michael Batnick]

You know what? It's right. It's just political theater.

[Ben Carlson]

It's not. Yeah, just shut up about it then. If you're never gonna do it, shut up about it.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. All right. Let's talk about the young people and the intersection of them in the workforce with AI. We got an email from a college professor who said, your intuition is spot on. I've been in career development for over a decade. In the job market for recent college grads, it's the worst I've ever seen. Including Covid. It's particularly tough for business school grads. Entry level white collar roles in fields like accounting, finance, marketing are disappearing. Many recent grads are taking jobs that they don't that don't require a degree, Often in the service industry, sales or gig work just to get by. Frankly, this trend is deeply concerning and I don't say that lightly. While I'm not sure we'll see a sustained period where the unemployment rate for college grads exceeds that of non grads, the gap is closing. That alone is alarming. And in concert with that, we got another email. This one crossed my feet today. Two branches of our armed services met their recruiting goals three months early to the tune of 30,000 recruits. 20% of them have some sort of some form of college degree. Take it from someone who knows this is what you find at the intersection of desperation and zero employment prospects. Food for thought. Maybe someone out there knows better, but this seems to be a very strong recession indicator.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, I'm going to continue to zag on this one. I'm not saying these fears aren't real and that young people aren't having a harder time, but what if we're just working off an insanely hot job market? So the guy in the first email said he's been doing this for a decade and it's the worst he's ever seen in a decade. That's because we've had an insane. We had a really hot job market heading into Covid and then Covid supercharged it.

[Michael Batnick]

I'm going to.

[Ben Carlson]

So what if we're just working off an insanely, like, look at.

[Michael Batnick]

I'm going to reject that.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm going to. I put this chart in here. Again, this is the unemployment rate again, age 20 to 24. We're basically back to the average of the 2000s and way below average for the 2010s, which as a millennial, you and I know coming into that job market. Most people came into the job market in 2007-2008-2009-2010. It was awful.

[Michael Batnick]

Ben, sometimes, and I think this is one of those times, the story is more important than the numbers.

[Ben Carlson]

But we had an insanely hot job market, like the hottest job market we've had our entire lives.

[Michael Batnick]

That is true.

[Ben Carlson]

What if we're just working that off? That's the question I'm asking. I'm not trying to say we don't have to worry about AI for the future, but I just don't think this is a crisis level thing yet. It's been way worse in the past.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, I'm not saying it's a crisis.

[Ben Carlson]

It's a relative crisis compared to where people were.

[Michael Batnick]

I just think. I just think it's not. Okay, how about this? Is this story going to get better or worse of young people having a hard time getting jobs, especially young people that are in the white collar space who went to business school. Like those entry level jobs are just not going to be getting filled to the tune that they used to be? I don't think that's controversial.

[Ben Carlson]

Probably there's gonna be a. There's gonna be a transition phase for sure. All right. We talked, I think last week about maybe two weeks ago about the multiple job holder thing, and people keep talking about this like that was the Wall Street Journal article about Americans are side hustling. Like we're in a recession. Ernie Tedeschi posted this chart which is good multiple job holders as a percentage of total employment and he said it's a pro cyclical indicator. That means the share of workers with multiple jobs rises when times are good. That's because there are more job opportunities in a healthy could not agree more. You never heard about people in the great financial crisis or the aftermath being like, I'm working two jobs because they're so plentiful. It was nonsense. You wanted to get two jobs. It was hard.

[Michael Batnick]

Totally agree with you.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, I pulled a lot of stuff from Twitter here and I want to just give some perspective on how good we have it before I get into something else. I was watching Sinners finish Sinners last night and I'll give my review later and recommendations. And I know it's not based on a true story obviously if you know what happened, but their depiction of life in the 1930s. Every time I see the depiction of life in an old time, I just thank God how good we have it. So Derek Thompson had this cool post on life in 1776, which is almost 250 years ago. This is the crazy one that a lot of people pulled on Fuel is such a burden that firewood is 28% of US GDP now. I don't know how exactly they calculated it, but actually that number probably sounds directionally right to me. Nighttime darkness is such a burden. George Washington reportedly spent $15,000 in today's dollars on candles every year. Heat is such a luxury that Thomas Jefferson can't write in deep winter because his ink freezes. One reason perhaps why Independence Day is in July. This is a more obviously that's 250 years ago, but this is a more recent one that I think is really an interesting point that I hadn't thought of. Someone tweeted about the fact that they would eat pancakes in the 80s as a kid and their parents would watch them closely on butter and threw up and say that's plenty. And this guy says people who weren't alive in the 80s always claim it was a time of plenty richer than now. But nearly 100% of people who were actually alive and conscious then recall middle class parents engaging in bizarre hyper thrift and money anxiety that basically no one has now.

[Michael Batnick]

My mother used to tell me to not use too many paper towels like.

[Ben Carlson]

The individual rectangles my dad used to still to this day when a soap gets towards the end like a hand soap in the bathroom, he'd refill it with water and then you Go to use it. And you get that, like, what are we doing here? But that is a. I remember. I still remember to this day. When I was younger, I was in, like, fifth grade and we would go to Arby's and I just wanted a roast beef sandwich and my dad gave me, made me get an Arby's Junior. And I was so ticked off. But that was just the mentality back then of. And I feel like today is a mentality of abundance. Right. You can have anything and everything you want on demand, and especially for kids. You're right. That what we grew up in was not. And it didn't feel like abundance. And this is another one. Just one more to tie this in a bow here. Joe Weisenthal said, it's so funny that in 2025, people are still describing certain cities as having good food. No, they all do now. And that's so true. You can. You and I travel to some random places sometimes, and I feel like everywhere we go, it's like, oh, fantastic restaurant. Oh, great bar. Great, Right? It's like where I live it. 25 years ago, there was no good restaurants. Now there's a million, and there's 10 new good ones every year.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. All right, so I am fully aligned with the fact, I mean, this is. This is incontrovertible, that everybody says, thank God we don't live in 1776. Right. Life was not fun then. And maybe not. Maybe we don't spend enough time highlighting how relatively good we have it.

[Ben Carlson]

I think it's good to have some gratitude once a while. That's my point.

[Michael Batnick]

I agree. It's also true that there are a lot of problems in this country. So Nikhil Krishnan tweeted this chart that I think we probably spoke about when it came out from the New York Times, showing Americans now spend more on healthcare than groceries, on housing. So they show the share of U.S. household expenditures over the last hundred years. And a lot of it is pretty consistent. I mean, groceries way down, deflation in grocery stores, which is nice. But to me, the big outlier in clothing and footwear has gotten way cheaper. As we know, health care is an abomination. And there's a lot of people in this country that are very pissed off. I'm guessing that it's not people that listen to this podcast, but I was listening to. I listened to Joe Rogan and Bernie Sanders. Not sure why. Well, I guess it's drawing my podcast feed. I don't usually listen to Joe Rogan or Bernie Sanders, but I was Curious to hear what they had going on. So I listened to it. Have you ever listened to Joe Rogan podcast?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

That's like, it's three hours, I think it took me 27 times to get through it.

[Ben Carlson]

It's been a long.

[Michael Batnick]

So they spent a lot of their conversation talking about the problems in this country. And I know Bernie Sanders is like a political lightning rod and I think he's a good man with good intentions fighting for what's right and the inequality. I don't like a lot of his tactics. Right. I don't think that going after success is the answer. But the point is that there's a lot of people that are very pissed off. And in many ways the system is absolutely broken, especially healthcare. Now I have no idea how to fix it. I don't even know what the problems are. Right. This is like not what I'm into. But the only reason why I bring this up is because there was one part of the conversation and this is, this is something that I don't like when people do. So I'm being a little bit hypocritical here. There are people that work in a certain field that when they hear somebody say something that they don't like in the context of a three hour conversation, can say, this person's an asshole. They don't know what they're talking about. I work in Field XYZ. They mentioned Field XYZ for 30 seconds in passing. They're an idiot. I will not, not listen to another word they say. Right?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. So one of them, Michael, don't know what Palantir does. Get those guys out of here.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. Morons. Fair. One of the things that Joe Rogan's that Bernie said, that makes me upset and it's just factually not true. And it's, it's. He has to know. He has to know it's not true. And it doesn't matter because like every politician, they say things to appease to their base. I get it. The thing that he said that immediately was like, wait, what was talking about the corporations, the rich and the powerful. And again, I agree with a lot of what he's saying, but who owns most of the stock market in this country? What do you think he said?

[Ben Carlson]

What is he, BlackRock and Vanguard.

[Michael Batnick]

Vanguard, BlackRock and State street owns 70% of the stock in this country. And obviously it's a face pump. It's just like. And when you hear things like that, it is hard not to not dismiss everything he says.

[Ben Carlson]

But just there's enough wealth Inequality stats out there. You don't need to make use that kind of stuff. That is.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. It's just weird that, that they keep saying and it's not just him. Something that is so obviously untrue. And for those of you who are listening, like how is that untrue if you're a newer listener? We, we are Vanguard.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

It's. It's the people. It's not, it's not Vanguard that is the, the corporate juggernaut. And they are. But it's. These are index funds.

[Ben Carlson]

It is funny that all these newer companies have said they democratize investing. Vanguard, democratize investing. Literally. So back to your chart about spending here. I think the problem is that. So it's amazing progress that groceries used to be such a big percentage of the budget, now are a tiny percent. Clothing and footwear went from a huge part of your spending to a tiny percent. Right. Like that is progress.

[Michael Batnick]

It's not all bad and it's not all good, but access to healthcare so that like people can just live and not die.

[Ben Carlson]

Listen. But those, those things getting better, the, the vacuum has been filled by something else. Right. It's health care. And I talked about this with Duncan a few weeks ago. It's also just every luxuries have become necessities. Think about all this stuff we have to spend on now that people did in the past. IPhones and Internet and giant TV and streamers, SUVs and huge trucks, kids activities. Think how much more money we spend on our kids subscriptions. People think travel is a right now, not like a privilege. And I think all this stuff that was once a luxury is now a necessity and that just makes life more expensive today.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. Yeah. So go ahead. I'm sorry.

[Ben Carlson]

We've used these before. The Wall Street Journal has another one that says the top. They're in the top 10% of earners. They still don't feel rich. I'll read the first one because it's my favorite. Lauren Fitcher and her husband earn about $350,000 a year. They own their home and a vacation property. They rent out an Airbnb. They throw their three children play club sports and the family often grabs takeout after games. But when they her kids head to college next year, they have to tap student loans and hunt for scholarships. They haven't been able to save enough for the colleges expenses for their kids, which should be around $75,000 a year per student for families at their income level.

[Michael Batnick]

Read her quote.

[Ben Carlson]

When I was younger, I wouldn't even fathom making this much money. She's 47 today. But today I feel like we're just a normal, run of the mill middle class family and this is the kind of thing that is literally never going to go away.

[Michael Batnick]

So this is, and this is, and this is the top 10% of earners.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

And this is a very, this is not an outlier. It doesn't matter what income level you're at. It's expensive to live whether you're in the bottom 10%. Obviously that's, you know, a different story. But this is the, one of the defining stories of our time. It's obviously a factor of inflation and.

[Ben Carlson]

Health insurance and the out of control lifestyle inflation too. It's everything.

[Michael Batnick]

It's everything. It's everything. And it's, and it's, it's, it's weird because we enjoy the luxuries of everyday life, but they're not luxuries anymore, as you mentioned, and people are sick of it.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, but it's, the thing is this is, this mindset is only going to get worse because of the information age. It's not going to ever get better.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. But I also don't think that this is a case of, of information distorting reality. I feel like this is, this is.

[Ben Carlson]

Real shit for some people, certainly. But there's some people, I think the top 10% of earners, so they said more than a quarter of people whose households earn between 200 and $300,000 a year report they are not very satisfied or not at all satisfied in their financial situation. Situation. There's people who legitimately deserve a break, but people in the top 10% of earners. I don't feel that, I don't feel sorry for them.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, neither do I. And I don't think that you have to feel sorry for them. I think it's just the reality of life.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

It's expensive.

[Ben Carlson]

Life is, this is why we'll always have inflation and this is why progress will always happen because people will never be satisfied.

[Michael Batnick]

Yes.

[Ben Carlson]

Good and bad thing. All right, I guess we got to talk about tariffs again. Kevin Gordon updated the tariff rates and this is for a handful of countries. Japan, South Korea are the biggest ones. And the tariff rates from April 2, the Liberation Day and July 7 are basically the same for a lot of these companies or the countries. Is the market ever going to really. I know the market held off for a little bit yesterday when Trump made these announcements, but I don't know, do we have to care about this again, really?

[Michael Batnick]

I don't Care market doesn't care. I don't care. The market just went. Had. Went on a historic run. Chart. Kim made a chart showing the. The rolling return since the bottom over time. And we're up 27 in the last. Whatever number of days it is. Yeah, I think that chart was 60 days, by the way, not 80. Anyhow. So the fact that the mark was down 1% yesterday.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. We did get an email from someone who said that they. All right. Daily green tea drinker.

[Michael Batnick]

This guy, this guy. This guy buys green tea by the kilo.

[Ben Carlson]

So he says he buys half a kilo at a time from China. Sounds kind of badass, right? Which is true. So he makes his purchase every six months. And he said it's his first month since liberation date. He said, we went to buy it. The company added an extra 10% U.S. government tariff charge. So he went, here's the price. But then in the end, it's an additional. And I do think that's probably the way to play this for companies. Like, instead of just passing along the cost to consumers.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Show it as a tax. And that way it's easier to take off. I like that.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, let's talk about real estate. Wall Street Journal has a story about homeowners who gambled on lower rates are paying the price. I feel like you and I have been very consistent in this since we started this podcast. We are not fans of timing the housing market. Don't do it. Like, if you can afford, buy. If you can't afford, don't buy. It doesn't matter what the rates are, doesn't matter what housing prices are. That's a thing. And I still remember having this conversation like early 2021, when people said, listen, man, I'm just gonna wait for housing prices to fall back like 10%. Cause they took off 20% and they were left in the dust forever. So it's kind of crazy. They show the mortgage rate stuff here. The stock market bottomed the same month. Mortgage rates hit 6% for the first time. And we've been there ever Since. Fall of 2022, mortgage rates hit 6%. And we've basically been in a 6 to 6 to 8% range ever since then. So they say Sean and Jennifer Glocker bought a townhouse in Oceanside community in Ponte Verde Beach, Florida in 2023. Mortgage rate was 7.6%. But they were happy with the price. Inspected rates to drop below 6% within a year. Then they would refinance. Hasn't happened. Said they can't refinance, so they're not carrying it any longer. They have to sell. And of course, it's hard to sell a condo or townhouse in Florida right now, and they're probably going to sell at a loss. Plus, insurance rates are higher. I would have. I wouldn't have never thought mortgage rates would have been able to stay this high for this long without impacting prices more. But this is another thing why, like, you have to make sure you can carry the interest in the debt burden.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. You can't gamble on interest rates falling to be able to afford your living situation. That's not smart.

[Ben Carlson]

So last week I said, housing probably needs a recession to, like, make activity back here. But our friend Logan Motashami tweeted, listen, you don't want a recession now because rates would go lower and demand would pick up. And inventory still isn't back to normal levels yet. Like, you want inventory. So I think he's almost saying we need rates higher for longer to have inventory drive up before you get the rates to fall, because demand is immediately going to come in to fill that void.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, demand will swamp supply. That's what he's saying.

[Ben Carlson]

That's why even, like I said last week, even if housing prices fell, I wouldn't be worried at all because all it's going to take is for rates to fall for demand to come back.

[Michael Batnick]

Can I tell you a local story and a personal story?

[Ben Carlson]

Let's do it.

[Michael Batnick]

I was. I haven't been on the. The Zillow app in my town in a while because I am not on the market for a house. And there's no.

[Ben Carlson]

I check it all the time.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, but you know what I was actually gonna say, not just that I'm not in the market for a house, but more specifically, I'm getting less and less notifications of. Because I have it turned on. So.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

Very few homes are hitting the market. And I was on the beach the other day with a friend of mine, and I got an alert, this house has hit the market. So I look at it. It's on the water. And I said to my friend, man, this is a sick house. I would love to be on the water. And he said, well, so why don't you buy it? I was like, well, it's, you know, it's like, my mortgage is 2.8%. It would make no financial sense to buy this house. And he goes, yeah, but your kids are only going to be in the house with you for another 10 years. 10 to 13 years. It's like, why would you. If you want to be on the water? Like, why would you wait? And I said, you son of a bitch. You're right, it's true. So my mother died when she was 56. Your brother just died at a very young age. So for me, the clock is always ticking. And that is the way that pulled my heartstrings. Why wait?

[Ben Carlson]

That's why I always say a house is not a financial investment. It's a psychic investment. Right. If you ran the numbers and you said, listen, I'm going to be able to save less money and put less money in the stock market because I'm making this purchase and my mortgage rate is. Or my mortgage monthly payment is probably going to. To go up 60%. Maybe it'll double.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, no. So let me tell. Let me tell you the scenario. So my monthly payment, and I haven't run the exact numbers, but it would, it would, it would triple, maybe, probably more.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

Because my current mortgage is artificially low. My house, my home, I bought it for a low price. I could sell it for high price. The only way that I can make this purchase work is with and fire listeners. Close your ears, dorks. Is with an interest only loan.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

And you know what? I'm gonna go for it. Now there's. This is the only house in my town right now that is listed on the water. It's the only one. I am not the only person that wants to be on the water. So I don't know if I'm going to get it or not, but I personally don't care. Now it's not that you don't build with an interest only loan. It's not you. It's not that you don't build equity. It's that you are paying interest only for the luxury of living wherever you live. And I am in a very good situation, thank God, that I don't necessarily need for my primary residence to be the bulk of my equity, like most people. So. Yeah. In a spreadsheet. Does it make sense? No. But life is not a spreadsheet. So I'm gonna make an.

[Ben Carlson]

Honestly, as a personal finance, I sign off on this transaction because water gives you a premium to your life. It just does.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, I.

[Ben Carlson]

So this is one of those things where a spreadsheet would tell you like, michael, what are you doing? But you're right, your life is another whole thing. And so like, if you run the numbers and you go, I can afford this monthly payment even though I'm gonna have to Stop doing this. It's worth it for me. That's a trade off.

[Michael Batnick]

So my mind changed completely because six months ago, because Robin's been wanting to live on the water. And I'm like, it makes no sense. Come on. It no sense. Why would we go from 28 to 7? We bought our house at a low price. We're going to pay a premium for this. It makes no sense. And then I saw this house and then my friend said what he said. And I said, you know what?

[Ben Carlson]

So here's the thing. You buy the house, then you root for a recession. Right.

[Michael Batnick]

So I don't know if I'm going to get it, but that happened.

[Ben Carlson]

All right.

[Michael Batnick]

I'm excited.

[Ben Carlson]

Good luck.

[Michael Batnick]

Thank you.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. So the worst housing market in America is Cape Coral, Florida. Cape Coral. Cape Coral. I don't know what it's called. We actually stayed there last year, went to a water park there. Very nice. We stayed there for a couple days before we went to Marco island for spring break. So a realtor there says it's the worst housing market in America. I don't think we're at the bottom yet. I guess it was kind of a demand pulled forward situation. They say home prices in that area have tumbled 11 in two years, the most of any major metro area. But. And that sounds like a lot. Oh, my gosh. Double digit decline. The median home price soared 75% in three years in the pandemic. So even if you get a 10, 15%. And again, this is the worst housing market in America. This is why even a small drop in housing prices does not relieve a lot of pressure for a lot of people. Because we had such a big run up. And the areas that had the biggest run up, well, I'm sure have the biggest fall in prices. But the run up was so big, it doesn't really matter.

[Michael Batnick]

Concur.

[Ben Carlson]

Everything is cyclical. I think anyone waiting for old housing prices is. I think, I guess we've kind of moved past that.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. Not to. Not to beat this dead horse, but there is just more demand than supply. And it is a demographic story. And that's not cyclical. Okay. There was an article in the Wall Street Journal. Why Vanguard?

[Ben Carlson]

Man, we are getting a lot of use out of our Wall Street Journal subscription this week.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. Why Vanguard, champion of low fee investing, joined the private markets craze. Traditional money managers, after years of cutting fees, look to tap in to higher cost private investments.

[Ben Carlson]

But they did this a long time ago.

[Michael Batnick]

Right. So I have two points here. All right. Here's the lead Vanguard Group grew into a $10 trillion financial colossus by pioneering simple ultra low cost investing. Its wildly popular index funds proved that people don't need expensive portfolio managers to pick their investments these days. The company's most exciting new product is a striking departure from that playbook A four way into the world of private markets where investors pay steep fees for access to complex deals that promise high returns. Okay, so I have. This wasn't. This was not a hit piece per se. It really wasn't. But it was like oh, Vanguard sees the dollar signs. 22 comments Number one, they struck a deal with Harbor Vest in 2020. Private equity company well before the private markets craze of today.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. Because it was a big story at the time.

[Michael Batnick]

Number two, the best thing for end investors in private markets, I guess private equity specifically in this case is for Vanguard to come in.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

Because what do you think they're going to do to fees?

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. Vanguard will pull everyone else kicking screaming to their level or close to it.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. So it's never going to be a 10 basis point business. That is not the nature of these businesses. But there will be some fee pressure.

[Ben Carlson]

So if you have the Vanguard option as the like this is looked at as the index or this is looked at as a low cost option. Whatever it is, I can compare it to whatever else I invest in. I think that's a very reasonable. Yeah, you want that as an alternative if this is the stuff you're investing in.

[Michael Batnick]

Yep.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. Good one. From Verdad Capital who's been talking about private equity for a long time now.

[Michael Batnick]

Is he still bullish?

[Ben Carlson]

Not quite. He looked at the PE fundamentals versus the median S&P company and he looked at the interest rates that they pay, the interest as a percent of revenue, EBITDA margins and free cash flow margins. And it is kind of funny that the s and P500 just blows this stuff out of the water. Obviously these are different businesses. Right. They're not invest private equity is investing in more stable, I guess, quality value type of investments. Right. They're not the. So the technology companies probably make a difference here.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, their investments are not necessarily growing at 40% a year.

[Ben Carlson]

But if you just looked at this and you said this is the S and P versus another type of stock strategy, you'd say of course I'm investing the S and P all day long. You wouldn't say. But so my question is, is it just the leverage? Is that what people want from private equity? Like listen, I'm just Getting the leveraged whatever small cap Russell 2000.

[Michael Batnick]

That's highly attractive leveraged illiquid equity.

[Ben Carlson]

Right?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, it's good.

[Ben Carlson]

It seems like to me like that's. I just. What, what would stop a company from just Vanguard saying listen, we're going to leverage the S&P 500 of the Russell 2000 and we're not going to show you the price regulation, we're going to show you the price once, once a quarter. Right.

[Michael Batnick]

I think I would raise a ton of money.

[Ben Carlson]

I probably would like. We're not going to show you the value but this is what we're investing and we're adding leverage on it.

[Michael Batnick]

No, I'd invest. I'm a sucker. I'd do it. I can't take the daily leverage on my screen.

[Ben Carlson]

I haven't made fun of a survey in a while. So here we go. This is from charter. They look at high school drinking and they look at by different age, 8th grade, 10th grade and 12th grade. Right. And they show far fewer high schoolers are drinking. Which I guess Gen Z is just a bunch of nerds like come on, get on it. But look at this. They show that in 1991, 55% of 8th graders 13 and 14 year old were drinking. 78% of 12 drinking.

[Michael Batnick]

I mean a 13 year old to be drinking is pretty nuts.

[Ben Carlson]

There was no way in a world in the 1990s that 55% of 8th graders were drinking alcohol. Guess what they were doing lying on surveys. I agree that young people are probably drinking less than they did than people in the past did. There's no way that these initial numbers are correct.

[Michael Batnick]

We got an email recently asking us to weigh in on the decline in in spirit consumption. And a lot of these, a lot of the stocks of these big companies are not doing well.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, they're getting hit. I guess that makes sense.

[Michael Batnick]

It does seem to be a secular because this cyclical. I don't see why.

[Ben Carlson]

I guess a lot of people have substituted with, you know, now that pot is legal, doing the gummies and stuff and. Yeah, not me, I'm still drinking. All right, quick. My quick diatribe on car payments. According to second quarter data crunched by Edmunds.com, the share of new vehicle buyers to commit to monthly payments of $1,000 or more hit an all time high of 19.3%. Nearly one in five consumers. That is nuts. Average payment is $756. One in five people signing up for a thousand dollar or more car payment.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, but that makes sense when you Consider that The average is 756. How is the average 756?

[Ben Carlson]

8 or 10%. Car borrowing rates. Right. It's funny, we don't talk as much. People talk about mortgage rates all the time. No one ever talks about the borrowing rates on auto loans because I guess you're not borrowing for quite as long. But it adds up that, you know, 8 or 10% on your auto payment. From the New York Times. Here's a good thing. Gen Z is not drinking, but they are saving. New York Times says Gen Z is great at saving for retirement. Brinley Beckman is 23, but she's always already thinking about retirement. She teaches ninth grade biology at Shelton School in Dallas and contributes 3% of her salary to an employee sponsored retirement fund. She hopes to increase her contribution by 1% per year. I want to start saving early because the more the money sits, the more it compounds, the more it's going to grow. Amen, Brinley. Way to go. They say 20% of Gen Z'ers are saving for retirement and they're contributing to 401k plans at higher rates than millennials did when they first entered the workforce. Which makes sense. It also shows more Gen Z women are saving than Gen Z men. And they had another thing in this story about how the women are more likely to put into the Roth IRA or the 401 and the men are more likely to open a Robinhood account. And guess who's probably gonna do better in that situation?

[Michael Batnick]

The men.

[Ben Carlson]

Probably on an average basis, but not on a median basis. How about that?

[Michael Batnick]

Cause you'll have a couple outliers, probably neither. There'll be way more zeros than thousand percent returns. No offense, dudes.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. Tyler Cowan at the Marginal Revolution wrote about the new baby. What are they called, the Trump accounts or something? They're giving each baby $1,000 that it's born.

[Michael Batnick]

Is this happening? Is this part of the bill or what's going on here?

[Ben Carlson]

As far as I know. Right?

[Michael Batnick]

All right, well, this is awesome.

[Ben Carlson]

So you get $1,000 that you're born. So he says, I guess employers can also do a contribution. I don't know how that's going to work, but he's saying, let's say you get the initial thousand dollars and between the employer and the parent, you had another thousand dollars. I think it's capped at 5 grand a year. He's showing the after 18, 25 and 65 years, like how much that $1,000 grows to. So I think 18 years, 7% return is probably a pretty good starting point. That's like 36, $37,000 that you could earn. This is the thing with not only health care costs, but student loans and buying your first house and renting your first apartment. Like, but imagine.

[Michael Batnick]

And imagine when private equity gets in here, well, in that case, even higher returns.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. How many movies did you see this week?

[Michael Batnick]

So I was thinking about this. So now that Kobe is away at sleepaway camp, I have much. It's much easier for me at night to go out.

[Ben Carlson]

So isn't it amazing how much more efficient you are with your time when the kids are away? So our kids are at our grandparents last week. It's insane how much you can get done without kids. And I guess that's probably why all the hustle. People don't have children that talk about their morning routines and such, because you just have so much more time to fill. Why would you not rub banana peels on your face and dip your head in ice if you don't have kids?

[Michael Batnick]

So I thought about seeing Megan 2.0 last night, and this is interesting, because the first Megan, which is a horror movie about a robot, did very well, relatively speaking, for a horror movie. It's one of these Jason Blum movies, and the second one bombed, and it didn't get bad reviews, but I had no interest in seeing it. And so he came on the town to talk about. He wanted to talk to Matt Bellany about why it bombed four weeks before the movie came out. They thought that it might have potential to do better than F1 at the box office, which is hilarious. But it goes to show that even experts that track these things very closely have no idea. I was speaking with Josh about IPO pricing and how is it sometimes that they're so wrong? And I made the analogy. I'm like, dude, how much data do scouts have on quarterbacks? Like, scientific data on arm angles, on whatever you can imagine.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. What's the hit rate? 25%, maybe if they're lucky, they just don't know.

[Michael Batnick]

So he was talking about why Megan bombed it. You know, they could speculate, but, like, at the end of the day, you just don't know. I had.

[Ben Carlson]

He said that's the old William golden line about movies. Like, no one knows nothing.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. So why does. Why does some work, some doesn't. There's. He doesn't know. I had the broker in my house just like, hey, like, what. What do you think we can get for this house? And he was like, these are the comps But I don't know. Like, we could list it here and it's a range of. Probably here on the floor in the hot. Like, I. We don't know. It depends. Anyway, I didn't see Megan, but. Because the Times didn't work out. But the point that you made is, yeah, I have so much free time. I could see it tonight. Might see it tonight. So I saw Jurassic last week, and you know how much I love dinosaurs. Do you know much love dinosaurs? Maybe we never spoke about this, but, like, a lot of.

[Ben Carlson]

Does anyone hate dinosaurs, though?

[Michael Batnick]

I don't think so.

[Ben Carlson]

Dinosaurs have to have the highest approval rating of anything.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, I don't think so. I remember being a little boy in the library, sitting on the floor. It's like looking at dinosaur boxes. I love dinosaurs. And so when Jurassic came out when I was eight years old, I was, like, blown away, as was every other.

[Ben Carlson]

I still. I still remember going to the theater to see it. We got interviewed by the local newspaper after we came out to ask us what we thought of it because it was such a big deal.

[Michael Batnick]

And what do you say? Two stars. Not realistic.

[Ben Carlson]

I can't remember. I loved it. My. My son wants to go see Jurassic World so bad. Okay, whatever the name was called.

[Michael Batnick]

So I love these movies. And as listeners know, I have a high tolerance for dog shit. The last Jurassic World dominion was horrendous. And I remember saying in this podcast, everyone involved should be ashamed of themselves.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that was really bad.

[Michael Batnick]

And unfortunately, I feel the same way about this one.

[Ben Carlson]

Ooh.

[Michael Batnick]

It was two hours and 15 minutes. The plot, which I guess is besides the point, but it just felt so nonsensical. So nonsensical. Like, that's the best they can do. A lot of the dialogue was horrendous. A lot of, like, the parts where they played the music that are supposed to, like, give you goosebumps just felt out of place and awkward and weird. Got no bumps. Now I will say the dinosaur scenes, fantastic. Some of the CGI stupendous. Really was into that. But I wonder, like, did I age out of Jurassic and I think they aged out of me? I don't think. Like. I just think it just got so bad. But it doesn't matter because they ran out of ideas.

[Ben Carlson]

Probably 52 on rotten tomatoes, so it's not doing that. Does not. The audience doesn't like it that much.

[Michael Batnick]

It sucked. Scott Mendelson, who substack I subscribe to for box office stuff, said Universal and Amblin's Jurassic World Rebirth proved Dynamite. Over the long holiday weekend, netting 91 and a half million dollars over the Friday. The Sunday portion of a $147 million Wednesday to Sunday launch. With $318 million worldwide, it nabbed the biggest global launch of the year. The biggest global launch of the year. And it stunk. And word of mouth, because it's getting bad reviews.

[Ben Carlson]

Word of mouth, 6.3 on IMDb. Not great.

[Michael Batnick]

Word of mouth didn't matter. The theater was full. Oh, by the way, it was. How about this? Maybe there's too much detail, but it's my podcast and I'm talking worst movie experience of my life up there. I saw it in Lynbrook Theater on a very big screen, which I. Which was great. But for some reason, the theater was complete. Not for some, it was completely full. Like, I don't know if there was an empty seat and the average age was. Call it the young teenager. And they were talking the entire time. And I couldn't tell whether the sound was coming from the screen or around me. It was like ambient noise the entire time. And also, it was one of those theaters where the seats move up and down, as most do, but the gears on the seats were so loud.

[Ben Carlson]

So it was like, need a little WD40.

[Michael Batnick]

You hold that the entire. So anyway, it just sucked. But here's what did.

[Ben Carlson]

I hate going to a theater that's full of people.

[Michael Batnick]

It was. It was packed, and there was clapping at the end. Like, it was. It was a lot for me. So they. They did the trailers, and then they did like, all right, we're at the movies. Everybody silence their phones. And then another trailer came on the screen. I thought the projector broken. What's happening? It was a teaser for the Odyssey. It's like, maybe a minute, maybe less. Cannot wait. Did you know that? That Bernthal's in it?

[Ben Carlson]

I did not know that. But that actually improves it in my eyes now.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't. I don't really have an opinion on the Odyssey either way.

[Michael Batnick]

Just. You're gonna see the Odyssey and you're gonna love the Odyssey. All right? I forgot to mention this. Last week, I. The two. The second to last time I was in Chicago, I watched a Working Man. And the last time I was on the plane, I said, hey, did I just watch this movie?

[Ben Carlson]

That's got to be a Jason Statham movie, dude.

[Michael Batnick]

I have no memory of it. And that's my type of movie. That is my type of movie. I watched it two weeks prior and I have zero memory of it. Okay? And Speaking of airplane movies, I'm ready to call it best Airplane Movie Star maybe of all time is a stretch, but, like, for my money, give me.

[Ben Carlson]

A range of when the movies took place.

[Michael Batnick]

For my money, this is the best work.

[Ben Carlson]

When was this person the biggest movie star? I want to guess.

[Michael Batnick]

What did he peak? Yeah, he might still be peaking. How about that?

[Ben Carlson]

All right, so you're just going to say Gerard Butler. Yeah, who is it? Okay. You're too easy.

[Michael Batnick]

So I watched. I don't know how this one missed me. I watched London Has Fallen. I was kind of like sleeping through it. It doesn't matter. Probably saw 40% of the movie. Awesome. Awesome movie.

[Ben Carlson]

That was like a sequel to the White House Is Falling. Right?

[Michael Batnick]

I think those might be different movies. All right, so anyway, I wanted you to just give me a minute and let me run through Gerard Butler's resume. First of all, and this is not an airplane movie, but the Phantom of the Opera. You don't know this about me. Huge Phantom of the Opera guy my parents took me when I was 6, so I have extreme nostalgia for that. For that Broadway show.

[Ben Carlson]

Never saw it.

[Michael Batnick]

Let's move past it, all right? It starts in 2006 with a little movie called 300. Zack Snyder. Maybe you heard of him? Then he's done Law Abiding Citizen. You know that one? Jamie Foxx.

[Ben Carlson]

I remember that one.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay. How to Train your Dragon. Whatever. That's not for me. The. The. The animated one. All right. Machine Gun Preacher, Olympus Has Fallen. I guess that's the first one.

[Ben Carlson]

Ah, that's one I saw. Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

London has Fallen.

[Ben Carlson]

He had a really bad romcom with Katherine Heigl in there somewhere, by the way.

[Michael Batnick]

Now, mind you. Yeah, it's called the Ugly Truth. There's. There's a million movies in between that are pure trash, but whatever. We don't talk about those. Machine Gun Preacher, Geostorm, Den of Thieves, Greenland, Plane, Den of Thieves, Pantara, and most recently, how to Train youn Dragon. The act, the live action movie. Gerard Butler is in the hall of fame, maybe even in the Mount Rushmore of plane movies.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, so we saw how to Train youn Dragon. My kids really wanted to see it. Your review helped. I went to see it. I think it's the first time I didn't take a nap in a movie with my kids.

[Michael Batnick]

Right.

[Ben Carlson]

It was very good. He was good in it. I'd only seen bits and pieces of the cartoon. My son knew everything was going to happen because he'd seen the cartoon, but I thought it was just really, really well done.

[Michael Batnick]

It was a huge upside. Surprise. I had no expectations.

[Ben Carlson]

My kids loved it. It was. It was. It was. Yeah. It was a very good movie.

[Michael Batnick]

I have one last one. So you mentioned time on my hands, going to see movies. The Megan 2.0 didn't work out last night, so I decided to fire up another horror movie that came to my radar thanks to Arts. That's Bill Arts. Clown in a Cornfield. It's an. It's an IFC shutter production. And, you know, corn Filter's scary. I. Not a.

[Ben Carlson]

Sounds like a AI made movie for sure.

[Michael Batnick]

I was. Yeah, it does. I was too scared as a child to see Children of the Corn. I think I watched it with my eyes closed, but I don't think I ever got through it.

[Ben Carlson]

It was very creepy.

[Michael Batnick]

Too scary for me. There's something very scary about the cornfield. Anyway, this movie was pure trash. Not even so funny. It was bad. Just. Just terrible. It was like if. If ABC Family made a horror movie, it was terrible. So for my horror fans out there, you could skip Clown in a Cornfield.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. How to Train youn Dragon is one. We watched Sinners. It's on hbo Max now. I'm just. I'm at the point in my life where I don't even wait to rent movies anymore. Just wait till they're hit streamers. That's how old I am. And so my wife had literally no clue what this movie was about. I knew, like, a little bit. I didn't. I tried not to read too much about it, but I knew essentially what it was about. And this is two different movies in one. The first hour is a certain movie. The next hour and 15 minutes is another movie. And I told my wife, I'm like, there's a turn coming at some point. I don't know when, but it's a turn coming. And she was like, wait, what? And it was just a really good movie. It was just. It was just really, really well done. Not even a nitpick. If I can. If I could make, like a suggestion. I still. I don't really ever know about the twin thing. The same actor playing the same role. I know why they did it. I thought they probably could have just had Michael B. Jordan and have an older or younger brother played by someone else. That's a nip. But it was still like, it's. It worked. It was kind of crazy how flawless it was.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

With them both in the movie, I feel like the only times it's ever really worked, the same actor playing Twins is adaptation with Nicolas Cage. I don't know if you're seeing that one Charlie Kaufman movie. That's a really good movie. I love that movie.

[Michael Batnick]

Love that movie.

[Ben Carlson]

And then the Prestige, but that's kind of more of a hidden twin kind of thing.

[Michael Batnick]

That's one of my favorite movies ever. Is that like corny to say that?

[Ben Carlson]

No. Very good. I rewatched it recently. It still holds up. But Sinners was just. I mean, that's a 7.6. Probably 7.7. Just a. Just a great movie. And it. Again, it was two movies in one. And so people are.

[Michael Batnick]

People, People are gonna say, wait, how do you just say that's a really great movie and give it a seven. Six?

[Ben Carlson]

I think in the High Sevens is a very good score.

[Michael Batnick]

So do I.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. Listen, to get in the eights for me, you've got to like really be rear.

[Michael Batnick]

You know, you reserve AIDS for coming of age movies.

[Ben Carlson]

It's hard to get an 8. I'm a tough greater on movies.

[Michael Batnick]

Little Miss Sunshine.

[Ben Carlson]

That's all right. That's a decent one. But listen, there's. There's not that many eights anymore. That's the thing with movies. There's a lot of eight TV shows, not a lot of eight movies. Like the. The bear was an 8.7.

[Michael Batnick]

Now why are you still watching that? Just. Just bail. You don't. You don't need to watch it.

[Ben Carlson]

They're doing another season. Season four. I finished it. Terrible. Awful. Garbage.

[Michael Batnick]

Did we talk about tires?

[Ben Carlson]

We did okay. All right. We did. Liked it.

[Michael Batnick]

Watch tires. All right.

[Ben Carlson]

I laughed a lot of that show.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, you know, last episode we did, we wish people a happy fourth of July. I don't think we did well, I hope you had a happy. How was your fourth of July? Good. All right. Good. Me too.

[Ben Carlson]

Weather was amazing.

[Michael Batnick]

What could be bad? All right, thank you to Duncan and the whole squad on the production team. Thank you for listening. Oh, wait, I'm sorry. I do have one last thing. Lawrence. Yo, yo. I'm sorry. Yo, yo. I apologize. Anyhow, he is on Twitter. His handle is more to that. He wrote a book called the Inner Compass.

[Ben Carlson]

I got it.

[Michael Batnick]

Cultivating. Okay, there it is. Cultivating the courage to trust yourself. And it's only 100 pages or so now. Not to brag. My inner compass is perfectly calibrated. I trust myself. I'm not going to read this book, but I did read the first five pages and I even put in pen a line that was excellent. Maybe I'll bring it on the show next time because I don't have the book next to me, but it looks good.

[Ben Carlson]

He also sent his little figurine, which my daughter took. I read this book in, like, one sitting. It's very, very good. I His writing is so clear and concise and well done.

[Michael Batnick]

And it's self help without. Is it self help? It's just, it's not, it's not bullshit. Self help.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

It's not. Meditate.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. I it, it. His writing is very good. So. Yes. Great call.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

Get the book.

[Michael Batnick]

All right. Animal spirits@the compoundnews.com thank you for listening. Hope all is well. Take care of yourself and each other. Shout to Jerry Springer. Bye. See you next time.