A Wave of Redemptions (EP. 454)

Summary

Animal Spirits Podcast – "A Wave of Redemptions" (EP. 454)

Date: March 4, 2026
Hosts: Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson
Podcast Theme: Markets, life, and investing — Michael and Ben discuss recent market turmoil, redemptions in private credit, AI-driven layoffs, tech leadership turnover, and cultural shifts, all while weaving in personal anecdotes, humor, and practical advice for listeners trying to make sense of a chaotic environment.

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Episode Overview

This episode of Animal Spirits dives into a wild week in global markets—a sharp risk-off move driven by rising geopolitical tensions, surging inflation fears, and a crash in private equity and credit stocks. Michael and Ben wrestle with what’s signal and what’s noise for investors, debate the longer-term impacts of AI on employment, dissect the great ETF migration, and riff on everything from prediction markets to Hollywood’s latest reboot fatigue. Through it all, they urge listeners to tune out the day-to-day hysteria and anchor on historical context, good data, and humility.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitical Risk and Market Complacency

• Complacency gets tested ([02:19], [03:49]): The hosts challenge the prevailing wisdom that "ignoring headlines" always works for investors, noting that sometimes—if the world changes materially—apathy can look foolish. The week started with markets shrugging off dramatic headlines, only for a sharp correction to hit.

  • Michael: “As long as there’s not massive disruption to companies' earnings then why should investors react to short-term noise?” ([03:49])
  • Ben: “There likely will be a geopolitical flare-up that might actually matter eventually.” ([04:49])

• Inflation & Market Anomalies ([05:23]): Oil prices (Brent up ~8%), gold, Bitcoin, and the U.S. dollar all surged—yet small caps oddly rally despite higher rates.

  • Ben: “The worry is inflation. That’s why rates are up… input prices are going to rise. It’s all going to be inflationary.” ([05:40])

• Historic perspective ([05:59]): Markets and war—reaction is never the same; “The history of the world is... nearly always the unpleasant things that are repeated over and over again.” ([06:29])

• U.S. vs. Europe ([07:19]): U.S. as an energy producer is more insulated than Europe, which faces much greater earnings risk and surging gas prices.

2. Market Structure, Corrections & Concentration

• Drawdown overdue? ([08:07]): S&P 500 has been within 3% of all-time highs for almost 70 days; investors look for an excuse to correct.
• Market concentration then & now ([12:30], [13:56]):
  • Top market-cap stocks were once AT&T, GM, GE—now it’s tech giants.
  • Ben: “The names that are the top 10 names are almost undoubtedly going to be the top 10 names in two or three years, right?” ([13:56])
  • Michael: “The average lifespan of companies in the S&P 500 is basically at an all-time low...” ([14:39])
• ETF flows explode ([17:11]): $328B in new ETF money in 2026 so far, 64% ahead of last year’s record pace.

3. The AI & Layoffs Debate: Hype, Fear, and Reality

• Block’s 40% mass layoff ([20:12]): Jack Dorsey attributes deep staff cuts to AI; investors cheer, employees fear for their career future.

  • Ben: “This is the AI theme for as long as we’re arguing… every anecdote is gonna go, see, I told you, you white collar workers are nuked.” ([21:23])
  • Michael (referencing Miles Odin): “So many things that appear to be about AI are actually about the pandemic economy.” ([22:02])
  • Market’s reaction: stock up 25% on layoff news, revealing investors’ cold calculation.

• Skepticism about AI as the real driver: Many companies over-hired during the pandemic and are now course-correcting. Both hosts say context matters, but for laid-off workers, “the reason doesn’t matter” ([22:19]).

• Waiting for evidence in the data ([24:46], [32:09]):

  • Ben: “I’m going to have to wait until I see it in the productivity data or I see it in the unemployment rate really rising. You can’t just give me anecdotes… I’m not going to believe that until I see it in the data.”

• Speed and limits of AI disruption ([28:28], [29:01], [30:01]):

  • Marc Andreessen's ultra-optimistic AI scenario: “It’s the tasks that get disrupted, not necessarily the jobs all the time.” ([30:44])
  • The hosts caution both against complacency and panic: “This is the worst AI will ever be. You can’t assume it won’t get way better.” ([30:01])
  • Declining population growth and its counterweight to automation: “Human workers are going to be at a premium, not a discount.” ([30:01])

• Macro vs micro stories ([32:26]): The debate will be shaped by emotional, micro-level anecdotes—especially negative ones—while it’s the macro data that will really tell the story.

4. Private Credit & A Wave of Redemptions

• Blackstone's Redemption Crisis ([44:28]):

  • $1.7B in net outflows from Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund; 8% of AUM wanted to exit.
  • Blackstone honored all redemption requests, with the firm’s employees investing $400M to cover redemptions—seen as “a sign of confidence,” but not repeatable.
  • Michael: “I own the stock and I will be selling it today… There are stocks that you’re comfortable holding for a long time. For me, I have no interest in fighting this tape.” ([40:20])

• Structural issues: The incentive for investors to pull money (“I want to get my money out before everyone else”) could have stabilized long-term holders despite short-term pain.

• Private credit headwinds: Floating-rate products, once a draw, suffer as rates stabilize or decline. Negative headlines (e.g., software sector turmoil) exacerbate redemptions and price plunges.

5. Prediction Markets Go Mainstream—But Not Cleanly

• Regulation & Gambling ([47:04]):

  • CFTC Chairman Mike Selig defends prediction markets as tools to “hedge commercial risk,” but states like Utah reject the idea, decrying “gambling destroying the lives of young men.”

• Insider trading concerns ([51:36]): Evidence of suspiciously large, well-timed bets—e.g., $515,000 made on a PolyMarket Iran contract just an hour before bombing news.

  • Michael: “We just got to do better... Clean this shit up.” ([53:05])

• Wisdom of the crowds: Used well (unemployment contracts, government spending, etc.), these markets offer valuable insights amid hype and rumor.

6. Societal Trends, Pop Culture, & Personal Takes

• Loneliness vs. Agency ([64:40]):

  • Gen Z's epidemic of loneliness critiqued as “a choice.”
  • Guest quote: “The main social obstacle facing Gen Zers isn’t social media overstimulation. It’s their own trepidation.”
  • Ben: “The benefits of drinking, even if you have two drinks, greatly outweigh…I am more free to have a good time when I’m drinking. Do I sound…bad? I don’t care.” ([66:02])

• Hollywood’s reboot fatigue ([63:02], [69:46]):

  • Streaming wars—Netflix walks away from Paramount/HBO deal, heavy layoffs coming.
  • Scream 7 sets franchise records for opening but is panned as “so, so bad…felt like a Netflix movie. Like a Lifetime movie.” ([69:53])

• Small joys & learning resources:

  • Ben: “Claude” AI helped create kids’ math quizzes, a practical use of new tech. ([34:57])
  • New favorite history book: "A Little History of the World" by E.M. Gombrich—“the best history book I’ve ever read.” ([73:42])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Michael on the market mood ([03:49]) —
  “At the end of the day yesterday…yeah, this makes sense because as long as there’s not massive disruption to companies earnings then why should investors react to the short term noise?”

• Ben's caution on AI layoffs ([24:46]) —
  “I’m going to have to wait till I see it in the productivity data or I see it in the unemployment rate really rising. You can’t just give me anecdotes and say, this is it, this is the end.”

• On market structure then and now ([13:18]) —
  “The turnover at the top has been way lower…The names that are the top 10 names are almost undoubtedly going to be the top 10 names in two or three years.” – Ben

• On ETF inflows and the 'rich, unhappy' society ([18:13]) —
  "There is so much money in the system and nobody's happy. I know nobody’s a stretch, but, you know, set for effect." – Michael

• On the cold-hearted stock market ([24:22]) —
  "The stock market is always heartless, though. Like this...profit margins matter more than the people." – Ben

• Michael, about being wrong on Blackstone ([45:19]) —
  "Cut your losers short… I bought this to make money and I'm not making money. So that's, that's trading."

• On Gen Z & loneliness ([65:21]) —
  "My generation has decided that avoiding embarrassment or rejection is more important than developing a thriving social circle." – Emma Camp (WSJ, read by Ben)

• On Scream 7 ([69:53]) —
  "It was so bad. It was so bad. It was so bad. And that married with the Mortal Kombat 2 trailer sort of bummed me out. I'm like, all this data, that's just this slop. Now the good news is that this is done."

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:54] – Operation Epic Fury, ignoring geopolitical risk
• [05:23] – Inflation, commodities surge
• [08:07] – S&P 500 correction watch, market concentration
• [17:11] – ETF flows, societal tension
• [20:12] – AI, layoffs at Block, Dorsey’s rationale
• [24:46] – “Wait for the data” approach to tech layoffs
• [32:26] – Macro vs. micro in AI’s impact
• [40:20] – Private credit, Blackstone redemptions
• [47:04] – Prediction markets, regulation, and capture
• [53:05] – PolyMarket trading after Iran strike
• [55:52] – Michael’s IMAX investment thesis
• [64:40] – WSJ piece on Gen Z and loneliness
• [66:02] – The “benefits of drinking” (for mental health/socializing)
• [69:53] – Scream 7 reviewed: “so, so bad”
• [73:42] – Favorite new history audiobook recommendation

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Tone & Style

Conversational, self-deprecating, occasionally cranky but always searching for perspective—Michael and Ben mix data, history, and storytelling to help investors make sense of chaos without losing their sanity (or sense of humor). The episode is fast-paced, with frequent asides on movies, pop culture, and their own successes (and failures) in the market.

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Takeaways

• Beware Both Panic and Complacency: Headlines can matter more than you think, but reacting blindly is usually a mistake. Stay humble and make decisions based on longer-term evidence, not momentary sentiment.
• Don’t Overindex on Anecdotes: Productivity, employment, and society will adjust to AI, but we won’t see the whole story in viral headlines or a handful of layoffs—watch the data.
• Private Credit Risks are Real: Structural redemption issues, sector overexposure (e.g., software), and sentiment can hit hard—even if fundamentals seem fine.
• Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is: Whether it's prediction markets or investment choices, opinions are only as strong as the skin you put in the game.
• Find the Joy and the Learning: Amidst market stress, take time for family, new tech (AI apps for kids!), good books, and (occasional) great movies.
• Ignore the Noise (and the trolls): Don’t let comment sections or daily hysteria shake your process.

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For further details, market segment breakdowns, or episode quotes, replay sections cited by their timestamps.

Transcript

[A]

This message is brought to you by Nuveen. As markets evolve, tax optimization has become an essential building block for modern portfolio construction. Nuveen brings together municipal bond expertise, comprehensive tax planning resources, and direct indexing capabilities to help build portfolios designed for after tax performance.

[B]

From automated tax loss harvesting to credit research expertise, Nuveen offers integrated solutions that address the tax considerations investors care about most. Nuveen the future of tax optimization. Visit Nuveen.com to learn more. Investing involves Risk Principle Loss is possible at Janice Henderson Investors we believe working together is the way to work better. Like combining your portfolio plans and our in depth strategy, your valued assets and our valuable insights. Your mission and our vision always working in perfect harmony to find the right investment opportunities. Janice Henderson Investors Investing in a brighter future together visit janice henderson.com. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben

[A]

are solely their own opinion and do

[B]

not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

[A]

This podcast is for informational purposes only

[B]

and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain

[A]

positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Time is feeling very weird these days. I don't know if that's new or if it's been this way for a while. Last week's episode felt like two months ago is where I'm going with this.

[B]

Is it fair to say that our brains have not evolved enough to handle as much information as we have?

[A]

It's too much. I was. Yeah, it's overload. It really is.

[B]

Okay, where do you want to start?

[A]

Let's start with the opera. What is it called? Operation Fury. Epic Fury. What are they calling this thing?

[B]

I don't know. That sounds like an Avengers movie to me.

[A]

Did I make that? No, it's got to be. I don't think I made the whole thing up.

[B]

I got a question for you before we get into, like, the nitty gritty here. My thesis is investors have more or less learned to ignore geopolitical events.

[A]

Okay. Operation Epic Fury. Yeah, no, I nailed it. So we thought that yesterday.

[B]

No, but I'm saying, so that seems to be the thing, like for the last, I don't know, 10 or 15 years. It's kind of like, hey, listen, nothing matters. We've learned this. Do you think that's like a Minsky moment problem eventually, where there's too Much apathy towards headlines and eventually like there's going to be panic on the other side of it if like oh this is actually kind of real, is there?

[A]

Glad you said that Ben. Yesterday. So futures were down not even sharply at the open. I mean it was like 1% I think it was really sort of nothing with nothing but yesterday. So we're taping this pre market on Tuesday The Vix closed at 121 yesterday at the low of the day The S&P 500 was up 6 basis points. We had 241 advancers and 262 decliners. So nothing. With nothing there, small caps curiously rallied 90 basis points and I say curiously because well, large caps didn't rally but interest rates spiked usually not great for smaller companies. The dollar rip gold was up 1%, Bitcoin was up 5% so at the end of the day yesterday it was. Yeah, I guess investors are looking past this which has been historically the right move are these short term disruptions now obviously I'm not, I am economics, right. We're talking about the stock market. We don't do the human side of this on the show. That's beyond our scope but no one

[B]

wants to hear us talk about that. The geopolitics of this.

[A]

But just from the market's point of view at the end of the day yesterday, yeah, we felt like yeah, this makes sense because as long as there's not massive disruption to companies earnings then why should investors react to the short term noise now it's Tuesday morning and a lot of the say complacency of yesterday with the benefit of hindsight seems to look foolish this morning. We'll see where the markets close but the S P is down sharply. It is a definite risk off morning today. So maybe the perils of trying to, you know, guess what's going to happen in the next 24 hours on headlines is a fool's errand.

[B]

Obviously that is the right move though but ignoring the headlines historically has been the right move and even if you get a sell off it's overreacting to these types of things. Not a, not a smart investment decision.

[A]

But I think the thing that you said two minutes ago is interesting because at some point there likely will be a Chile political flare up that might have

[B]

actual ramifications for something's going to matter eventually.

[A]

The curious, the curious part about yesterday's reaction in the market was interest rates because typically when you have this sort of risk off type of news then people flock to Treasuries bringing yields Down. And the opposite happened yesterday because the thinking is that this is going to be some sort of a supply shock and input prices are going to rise. It's all going to be inflationary.

[B]

So yesterday, I think. Here's a question for you. I think it's, why do they call it Brent Oil?

[A]

There was a guy.

[B]

Brent is a name they gave people in the 80s.

[A]

You know, it was a guy Brent. He had buck teeth and he was

[B]

one of Brenton College.

[A]

Yeah, we all knew it. Brent, I don't know.

[B]

So anyway, it was up 8% yesterday. It surged again. I think it's up 7 or 8% today. So obviously one of the big worries is, okay, inflation. That's why rates are up, because like you said, supply shock and oil prices higher, Energy prices higher. Across Europe, energy prices are ripping higher.

[A]

Brent is a total. Brent is a total. This guy.

[B]

Yeah, he's that guy. Hey, there he is. So that's the worry is inflation. So Michael Antonelli sent us this, this chart of the S and P going back to the 1920s. I don't know who this is. I think. I can't tell where this came from. But it just shows when war happens and it's all over the map. Of course, there's like a war every two years, essentially five years, tons of war. I'm going to get to this later in recommendations, but it does just appear. And this is not a novel observation here. This is just something we do as a species, go to war.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

So I'm reading this, this history book and here's one of the opening chapters. I thought this, this quote says, the history of the world is sadly not a pretty poem. It offers little variety. And it nearly always. And it, it is nearly always the unpleasant things that are repeated over and over again. And he was talking about how like, the history of the world, of us, is just people trying to conquer each other. Good leaders versus bad leaders. And this is just the who we are. I think, I think a lot of people would like to assume, well, we're kind of past that as a more civilized society, but obviously we're not. Like, war is just part of our. I think it's in our DNA.

[A]

Yeah, unfortunately, the reason why there's been less reactions in the oil market is because the dynamics of how we produce and consume oil has changed dramatically.

[B]

Yeah, we're, we're energy producers now in the US and that's why this stuff hits places like Europe worse than it hits us.

[A]

So I saw their natural gas prices are up 35%. European stocks are getting rocked. I mean obviously this is, this is going, this is going to impact their earnings. Obviously the sustainability of it is, you know how long this lasts. All of that is in question. But there's no doubt there's at least going to be some impact. So Javier Bloss tweeted yesterday, if the Brent market closed at current levels up 7 and a half percent, which is about where it closed, the one day percentage increase would rank as the 53rd largest. 53rd he said. US Israel strikes on Iran, killing of the Supreme Leader, chaos and Hormuz retaliation across the Middle East. All of that delivers the 53rd largest one day percent jump.

[B]

Yeah. So the Middle east market wise is not as important as it once was. I guess we're going to test that theory, depending on how long this goes and what the supply shock is. The thing is this year alone the S and P has yet to have a 3% decline. Even like a 3% drawdown. So if we're going to have a correction. So exhibit A chart of the week. So Char kid Matt sent us this. Trading days, The S P is 500 estate within 3% of all time highs. It's been like almost 70 trading days now. The S P has been within 3% of all time highs. So this is, if we're looking for an excuse for a correction, this is it, right? Investors are selling off some of this stuff. Korean stocks got slammed. They were one of the best performers. To me this is a. If we're going to rip the band aid off and take a little correction, this is, this is a as good a reason as any.

[A]

S and p is down 1.8% pre market. And you're absolutely right. You would think that investors don't. Investors never need an excuse to overreact. And it's hard to say that they're overreacting when the market was flat yesterday and we're still within 2% of an all time high. I mean complacency is, is.

[B]

But if you wanted a reason to like, okay, I had some big gains, let's take some profits, this is a good excuse as any.

[A]

Yeah,

[B]

I just, these are the times when the whole like uncertainty thing feels higher than usual. Right. Even though it's always high. And it's just, I feel like now is the time to like filter out your, your sources of information and the people who tell you exactly how this is going to play out are almost never. Right? Those are the people you don't want to listen to. This is going to happen, then this is going to happen. And then after that, this is going to happen. Those people are never right. People tell you exactly how this is going to play out. That's the only thing I would caution people against. No one knows what's going to happen. All right, what else we got? Any. So, so, so I had a piece in here later about heading into last week. It's kind of funny. You said it feels like a month. Bloomberg had a piece last week saying that like interest rates have just been nosediving all year and the 10 year was almost at 4%. Bonds were having an unbelievable year. Had a great good year last year as far as bonds go, and now rates are spiking.

[A]

Monster RIP I've been.

[B]

Oh, wait, is this one of those things that, okay, we worry about this war and the supply shock and this trade of hormuze or whatever. Josh always makes fun of that thing because people always talk about it. But isn't this just a situation where. Well, no, AI matters more than this. What are we talking about here? This is something people worry about for a few weeks. But AI is the thing and that's deflationary.

[A]

Right?

[B]

Is that, is that the trump card again? Like, oh, nope, sorry. Good try. Nice try. Your rates, your little rate rise for a couple weeks and then AI trumps it again. Is that where we are?

[A]

That's got to be the base case. No, that's what happens every single time.

[B]

Seems like it.

[A]

So yesterday on Friday. So on Friday, the 10 year closed at under 4% for the first time in a while. 3, 9, 5 and back up to 410 today. I've been emailing my, my mortgage guy. On Friday, I think I emailed him a gif of Kramer. You know the, the Kramer looking at the horse race.

[B]

Oh yeah, come on.

[A]

Totally got rugged.

[B]

That happens. 15 basis points though, is not like a huge move, obviously. Let's be, let's be honest here. If you, if you compress one of the charts, you can make it look like a big move. But that's not that big of a move.

[A]

I think. Come on, it's. You're right, it's not that big. It definitely is not. But 15 basis points on sub 4%, it's not nothing either.

[B]

I guess the thing, if we're talking about household balance sheets though, the prospect of rising rates, even if they rise a little, they're not falling anymore. Higher inflation, this is not good for consumer sentiment by any means.

[A]

Higher gas prices.

[B]

Yeah, I, I think a lot of people are probably going, wait, what, what do we get out of this gas prices, supply chain shocks, another war.

[A]

I don't want to speak from the nation, but I feel like that's generally not popular.

[B]

No, because people always say we spent this much more on wars in the Middle East. What did we get out of it? There's a lot of that. So this consumer sentiment of this is probably not going to be great. All right, this was interesting from S and P Global. They had this thing where they looked at the concentration of stocks in the 1960s, which was a very high concentration. And it was kind of household names AT&T and GM and GE and Sears and Kodak.

[A]

And AT&T and GE were, were 15% of the market.

[B]

Crazy, right? So they're showing that we've had this type of concentration before. And now what happened to these companies afterwards and where are they now? And so, yeah, AT&T was almost 10% of the total. Now it's not even in the S and P anymore, which I didn't realize. And, and so all of these stocks are now less than a percent of the total S and P, which is interesting. And for how. And so it's saying then it shows the opposite how concentrated we are now. But where these companies came from. JP Morgan Chase was in 1973. They were essentially a zero weight. Like, it's just interesting to see how much change there is. And I know people think this is going to last forever, but the point is, like, it's probably not and things are happening faster and these are moving quicker. I tend to still think that's the

[A]

case, but there's been. But the turnover at the top has been way lower.

[B]

And how about 10 years or so?

[A]

How about this? No, no, no, no, no. These names, I think, I think if you look at the top market cap names since 2016 or 2017, it's been, I don't want to say constant, because that's, that's definitely not the case. But I think there's been less turnover in the top 15. I could be wrong. Than there has been historically. And how about this? Let's just say that's true. It's not true. It doesn't matter. The names that are the top 10 names are almost undoubtedly going to be the top 10 names in two or three years. Right?

[B]

Okay, so here's the thing. Nvidia wasn't there. Broadcom wasn't there. Tesla wasn't there. JP Morgan wasn't there.

[A]

Fine. But take. Let's extrapolate two years and assume that Nvidia and these names are still going to be the top 10.

[B]

I'm not talking two years, though. I'm talking 10 years.

[A]

No, no, but, but at that point it will have been well over 10 years with these tech giants at top.

[B]

Nvidia wasn't in the top 10 as recently as 2020. I guess that was longer ago than it seems.

[A]

Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook.

[B]

You're right.

[A]

Meta those been in the top 10. When did Galloway write his book the four? Was that 2015, like 2017?

[B]

Yeah, that's fair. Do you think that 2017 was only three years ago in my head, though? So. Right.

[A]

I saw a chart. Who. I can't remember who posted this. The average lifespan of companies in The S&P 500 is basically at an all time low. I think that is going to continue. I think there's going to be a ton of Turnover in, say, names 400 through 500.

[B]

Okay, that makes sense. Yeah. That was a Torsten slot chart that. The turnover in the S P names and how long they stick around is a lot lower.

[A]

All right. Ben Johnson tweeted on this week's episode of Life After Mutual funds ETF flows have gone to plaid February, by the way. Are they making. Are they remaking space walls or did I make that?

[B]

Bill Pullman's son is going to be in it.

[A]

Bill Pullman.

[B]

Can I give you a take? I gave. I gave Duncan on asset compound a few weeks ago, maybe a couple months ago. I've seen Spaceballs and enjoyed Spaceballs more than Star Wars. Over the years, I've gotten more enjoyment out of Spaceballs than Star Wars.

[A]

I haven't seen space balls in 15 years, but I. Oh, that's only because I watched it so many times as a child.

[B]

Really is great.

[A]

But is Mel Brooks directing it?

[B]

He's like 99 years old. I think he is.

[A]

Okay, all right, nobody needs that. But whatever, I'll watch it. All right.

[B]

Nobody needs. That is a great tagline for Hollywood these days.

[A]

Well, you know what? I saw a movie last night. I'll talk. We'll. We'll talk about that later in the show, but they're making a Mortal Kombat 2. They're making Mortal Kombat sequel of the reboot. Okay. The original one in 1990. I don't know, seven. Whenever it was something. Yeah, 94 was horrible because. What was the guy with the forearms? Oh, I'm gonna butcher this guy's name. Ganaka?

[B]

No, I can't remember, but I.

[A]

No, not Baraka. Baraka was a guy with the lit with the razor teeth.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Four armed man. Mortal Kombat. I'm sorry. 99% of the audience cannot give a shit about this. Oh, Goro. What did I call him? Ganaka.

[B]

Okay, I had the math.

[A]

Was that the math spray? Banaka.

[B]

I had a friend in middle school who would run Mortal Kombat. He'd put the quarter on the machine, be like, I'm next. And he would run. He would run it. And the arcade, that was. Where was that?

[A]

Those kids were cool ones that could just dominate the table. Anyhow, so they did a reboot. And I think I saw this during the pandemic. And the reboot was so bad. Like, truly one of these. Like, nobody needs this movie. And they're making a sequel. Sad state of affairs in Hollywood. They're making a sequel to a horrible reboot.

[B]

It really is. All right. What had been. What did Ben Johnson say?

[A]

Ah, yes. So February isn't even over yet, and investors have already put $328 billion in new money to work in the ETF wrapper this year. That is about 64% ahead of last year's record baking pace.

[B]

Dang.

[A]

Continue to be shocked about how much money there is in the system. Somebody emailed us. We got a lot of emails this week, by the way, and appreciate all of them, so thank you, guys. Somebody said one of the theories of why people are just. Why society is unhappy in general is you have the lower shape of the K, which is unhappy for obvious reasons. Crushed by inflation. And then even people at the upper end of the K, like, there's just. Just too much money. There's not enough capacity. Everywhere you go, there's lines. It doesn't matter how much money you have. The lounges are always full. I thought about this. I took Kobe to the Knicks game over the weekend. And you couldn't. I couldn't move. Like, it's just unbelievable. There is so much money in the system and nobody's happy. I know nobody's a stretch, but, you know, set for effect.

[B]

People who can. Who can afford to cut the line. They're even more miserable, though. The billionaires, right?

[A]

Oh, forget about the billionaires. Oh, I don't. I. I'm saying, I can't speak for billionaires being miserable. I think that's kind of insane. But when I. When we. When we went to.

[B]

Have you seen these people tweet? These people are way more miserable than anyone else.

[A]

You think Bill Ackman is every billionaire. I. I don't. I'm not going to say that billionaires are miserable. I Don't know any billionaires. Maybe they are, maybe they aren't. I, so when I took, when we went to, to the Bahamas in, in, in February, the line for Clear was almost at the door and people were like, bewildered. So Clear is a service that allows you to like, scan your eyes and it should be theoretically faster than pre check, but now everybody has it, so

[B]

they're going to have to create another thing that's ahead of Clear.

[A]

They need like Clear Premium or Clear Plus. Plus, there's going to be like seven tiers of Clear.

[B]

Clear was like the thing ahead of Precheck. Yeah. Okay, so getting back to the ETF thing, isn't this just going to be. Are baby boomers just going to continue to push this forward where like the, the mutual funds versus ETF is just going to get wider because they're selling all their 401k assets and they're rolling them over.

[A]

Okay, that makes sense. But don't you think inertia overwhelms that? Like, why would somebody roll over their 401k and all of a sudden trade an S&P 500 mutual fund for spy? True, they wouldn't. So I, I, I, I, I know for a fact that this is happening because a lot of how about RMDs?

[B]

You have to sell something to pay taxes. Then instead of spending it, I'm going to put it back in the market.

[A]

No, don't. No, RMDs have to come out of your account.

[B]

Yeah, I'm saying you sell it.

[A]

Oh, oh, I understand. Okay.

[B]

Goes into a brokerage. I know people do that.

[A]

So we know that financial advisors are whacking these mutual funds and getting them into ETFs if it's in a qualified account. So it's definitely part of the pie. But it's not the whole pie. Like, anyway, the point is there's just, there continues to be a lot of money in the system and it's obviously distorting things.

[B]

All right, let's talk about the AI story of the week. This one kind of jumped into like civilian zeitgeist a little bit. I heard some from some friends on this and I heard from some clients on this. The block. The Jack Dorsey thing from Block. So Jack Dorsey put out a tweet and I guess I'm sure they told the employees before, obviously, but they basically said, hey, listen, we're cutting our staff by 40%. Huge number. And he says AI is the reason. And now there's two teams on this. Okay. One team goes, that's it, it's over, it's done. This is gonna happen to every company. Get ready for it. And other people. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Let's provide some context here. And I think that this is going to be the AI theme for as long as we're arguing about this is some people going, every anecdote is gonna go, see, I told you, you white collar workers are nuked. And other people go, no, no, no, no. Wait, wait, wait. And my whole thing is like strong opinions loosely held on this because I don't think you want to be on a team with this, because I still don't. And not sure how this is going to work out. But a lot of people said, we got an email from someone who works at Block and said, I got laid off today. This sucks. And so the head games you hit with yourself there is, wait, what if this was really AI? What if my career is screwed? Right? That to go along with getting laid off. Like, getting laid off is never a fun process, obviously. But if you're having that thought in your head, like, what if I'm not gonna be able to find another job that I want to? Like that is the thing that has to screw with you. And a lot of people said, no, no, no, no. Jack is making an excuse. This is ridiculous. This company over hired so much during the first couple years of the pandemic. This is them right sizing the ship.

[A]

Here's my take. I thought Miles put it best. Miles Odin tweeted. So many things that appear to be about AI are actually about the pandemic economy.

[B]

Yes. Thank you, Steve Kiff.

[A]

That is, I think, I think he's 100% correct. I think that the market's reaction to this up 25% immediately in the after hours, sucks.

[B]

That was the hard part for a lot of people.

[A]

It's like, oh, gosh, I don't think, I don't think the reason necessarily matters. I think context is important. But does anybody who's laid off feel better because this is a pandemic story? Does anybody who's under, who's feeling anxious right now feel better? Because this is a correction for the fort, the AI for the pandemic hiring. It doesn't matter. And unfortunately, companies are going to use this as cover because look at how the market is reacting. I thought that Jack was smart to rip off the band aid because a consecutive series of cuts just destroys morale.

[B]

Obviously, yeah, they wanted to go big. But here's the thing too. This, the context is this is a company that crashed 80% in 2022.

[A]

It doesn't matter.

[B]

Recovered at all. I'm saying they needed to do something. The stock price got smoked.

[A]

Right? Right. So there's an account restructuring. He tweeted, in case you need confirmation that AI is the ultimate excuse to cut costs.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

So rumor UBS to phase out meal stipend in Q4 2026.

[B]

Why? Because AI doesn't need to eat. And a lot of people also said, listen, there was a story in the Wall Street Journal that I forgot. I totally forgot that black bot title from Jay Z, which was, has anyone in the history of music ever used that service? They threw like a $60 million party that people. So people are saying, people are questioning his bona fides as CEO. Like saying he screwed up because they went from pre pandemic, they had 4,000 employees and they went all the way to over 12,000, 13,000 in the matter of years. So, like, hey, this is right. Sizing the ship, obviously, again, you're right. That doesn't help anything. But the context I think is necessary here. And.

[A]

But what do we do when there's like four more of these?

[B]

There are going to be four more of these. You don't think that they're coming?

[A]

Of course. Look what the stock did. The investors said the markets are a cold, cold place. Investors cheered misery.

[B]

The stock market is always heartless, though. Like this. I know a CEO gets hired, a CEO gets fired, and the stock jumps 10% or something like the stock market is heartless. And you're right, there are going to be times when it's like the profit margins matter more than the people. But these anecdotes, I'm going to have to wait till I see it in the productivity data or I see it in the unemployment rate really rising. You can't just give me anecdotes and say, this is it, this is the end. I'm not going to believe that until I see it in the data.

[A]

Yeah, it feels like last week, a lot of last week was peak fear in the short term for software is dead. It was the Citrini bottom. And I'm not, I'm definitely not. Like, I don't say it to poke fun. I thought, I thought he did it. He actually did a public service with this post which we spoke about last week.

[B]

Public service? Come on. Everything they, everything they wrote is going to be wrong. That's not a public service. That's. That's scare tactic.

[A]

I don't, I don't think so. They're not a scare tactic. Shop like that's not. That's not their MO Public service might.

[B]

I don't. I've never read any of the research. That piece to me was a scare piece.

[A]

There's a difference. I mean, of course it was a scare piece. It scared the shit out of people. Finally was like. I don't think, I don't think the intent was in fact that he said on Joe and Tracy's podcast, if I knew that it was going to go mega viral, I wouldn't have named any individual stocks.

[B]

That's true. You don't, you don't know how many of these pieces are going to go viral. That's fair.

[A]

Yeah. How would he have known any. Who. I think, I think the market has since settled down a little bit. Intuit yesterday, which is arguably. Is there any company that is more exposed to AI on the software side? So Intuit is TurboTax and Mailchimp and Credit Karma and there's one other big brand that they have and intuit was up 17% of the last five days. Now is it. Is it. I mean obviously that was a bottom. Whether or not these. This is the bottom for the software stocks, probably not. Doesn't matter.

[B]

Yeah, well that's another. But the company was also down 50%. So that bounce was coming. So Citadel wrote a response to the Trini piece and they shared this. Job postings for software engineers. And people go, oh my gosh. Job postings for software engineers are rising. And then other people go, no, no, no, wait, look at. Zoom out a little bit and look at the hiring. But this, the data for. On Fred for software engineers only goes back to 2020. So there was this massive over hiring of software engineers for two years and then now there's a. So neither of these things are normal. Yeah, right. That's the hard part about the context here is you're right. Miles idea that the pandemic. We're still working stuff off. That is very true. I'm a big believer there. All right, so I listened to Marc Andreessen on this Lenny's newsletter. I've never heard of this podcast before, but this is the kind of thing. This was probably the, the most bullish like optimistic glass cell take on AI.

[A]

Market is open. Holy shit. International stocks are down 4%. IFA is down 4% of the open. That is. That is a big drop. Vix is at 26. Eh. Wow. Emerging markets are down 5.6%. Holy shit. That's a big one.

[B]

So this, this decade alone to me seems like another reason for Europe to like Loosen the purse strings and be like, we have to get. We can't just keep relying on this.

[A]

Silver's down 9% again. Unbelievable moves. Wow.

[B]

Okay. Never a dull moment.

[A]

Wait, I hear the geese. Is that the geese?

[B]

Yes. The. The dogs didn't work. The geese migrated back.

[A]

It sounds like somebody on a. On a bench that's like squeaking. You know what I mean? Like somebody rocking on a bench, they

[B]

just squawk at each other all day. The kidding. Geese are the worst. Absolute worst. I wish I had a hunting license to just out of my window, just take them all out. They're the worst. All right, so all the negative pieces go mega viral. And Marc Andreessen was on this podcast like a month ago, and I didn't hear one person talk about it.

[A]

Oh, that was a month ago.

[B]

It was at the end of January. And so I finally. Someone had shared and said, hey, listen to this. And it's the most. He should be the spokesperson for AI. Cause it's the most optimistic tape. He's saying it's not utopia of like, Star Trek and everything's gonna be figured out and no one's gonna work.

[A]

And.

[B]

But it's not dystopia either, where no one has a job. And he talks about how, like, if we do get this really high productivity growth that people are worried about, like, and it's going to be a lot of jobs, like that is. That means, like, lower prices and it's not going to cost us. Like, that, like, nirvana period of AI is going to cost so much abundance and productivity growth. No one's going to have to work it. Everyone's out of a job.

[A]

I think this obvious not to. Not to belabor the scary part, though. It's just the speed. Because in previous technological revolutions, it took time.

[B]

Like, yeah, this stuff is. You're right, this stuff is happening fast. But the speed at which the labor market has changed has not happened yet. That people are still extrapolating. That's the problem.

[A]

That's true. Hold on. Just put a pen and mark for a second. Because we got a few emails like this where people are saying that they tried AI and it didn't work and they went back to humans or their friend, their spouse works at a company that has implemented AI and it's a shit show and they're trying to unravel it, and therefore, you know, it's overblown. Like, sort of. Don't worry, this is all nonsense. No, no, no. The. These. The pace at which these things are improving, it's not like the product that didn't work today is just like, okay, I guess it doesn't work. It's moving so fast and you like just the speed at which these things are getting better. So I think there's a lot of people that are like taking false comfort in the fact that they're, that these models maybe aren't like able to do everything yet.

[B]

We get emails from people every week being like, you guys are, don't. You're talking about AI is not going to be a genius. Like you're right, this is the worst it's going to be is absolutely true. I think you can't take that. I'd take both extremes off the table. I don't like people who have the extremes of like, oh, this is going to be nothing. You can't have that mindset either. But Andreessen made the point that I was kind of trying to make about. He's saying this is all happening in the face of declining population growth. Human workers in the next 10, 20, 30 years are going to be at more and more of a premium. If you combine declining population with less immigration, the remaining human workers are going to be at a premium, not a discount. So again, his is a very optimistic take. But I liked his. What did he say? It's the tasks that get disrupted, not necessarily the jobs all the time.

[A]

Yeah, that was a great take and I hope that's right.

[B]

And he gave the example of a secretary that used to type up every single memo and every message for an executive and now the executive literally does all the typing themselves in email, but the secretary still has a job. They just do different tasks now. And that's what he was saying is gonna happen most likely to many people is that you just become more efficient and more work. And I tend to be on his side of things. His optimistic lean about what this is going to mean, I hope. Do you think anything he said was too optimistic?

[A]

I think that part was a little, was. I think there's a lot of truth, but it might be overly optimistic. Put it this way, I don't know that I feel a whole lot better than I did a week ago, to be honest.

[B]

The interesting thing to me is that if you listen to economists, they are very like they're very. And they're in the books and in the weeds. They're very level headed about this. And I thought Andreessen's take was very economist. So Paul Krugman wrote the Treaty Post argue that investors and workers hurt by AI will cut their spending, which they will. But if AI delivers big productivity gains, it will reduce prices and raise real incomes in sectors that aren't displaced, causing other Americans to spend more. There's no reason to believe that disrupting part of the economy will reduce overall demand.

[A]

That, that part, that part to me rings true. And so I guess if there is continued growth and more spending, more spending has to be good for somebody. It can't just be like AI's gain.

[B]

Right.

[A]

There are companies that absorb the spending.

[B]

Yes, exactly. Again, now that for the people who get displaced, that's not very much comfort. But the whole AI is going to wreck the economy. I think that economists as a whole seem to not really believe that. Maybe their assumptions are way too simple, too.

[A]

So that's going to be the theme for, in my opinion, for the next decade, macro versus the micro.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. And the micro stories are going to win out. Greg AP at the Wall Street Journal says if such a revolution were upon us, we should see some sign of it. We don't. At least not yet. The ranks of software developers widely assumed to be acutely vulnerable to AI are up 5% in January from a year earlier, a pace largely consistent with the past 23 years. So the thing is, we're seeing anecdotes. We're seeing anecdotes, but if you look at the aggregate data of the labor force, we're not seeing big changes yet from AI. We're just not.

[A]

What do you mean the. Well, yeah, give it a minute. It's early. What do you mean the micro data is going to win out?

[B]

I mean, people are going to, I, I'm, I'm. People are going to look at these individual stories and latch onto those as opposed to the macro overall data. And I'm saying I'm going to wait till I see it in the macro data to have an overreaction here. I'm not going to overreact to it until I see it in the data.

[A]

What's coming on the micro macro front might make the vibe session look like a walk in the park in terms of like the. Oh, yeah, divide between the data and the vibes. Because, you know, the reporters are only going to interview people that have been displaced.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

There's not going to be, there's not going to be any positive articles about the societal benefits.

[B]

No. If you're using AI to make your job better, no news reporter is going to care about that.

[A]

Right.

[B]

It's just going to happen. I thought this was interesting. This is from old rope research. It asked why is H and R Block still doing so many tax returns. If TurboTax exists, why are people still hiring people to do their taxes? H and R Bock prepares tax returns and offers auxiliary services to clients. 10,000 retail locations and they've been doing around 20 million tax returns per year for 25 years despite stiff competition from TurboTax and the Federal government which now has like this easy system that was implemented in 2017. No real growth in numbers, but still the whole tax prep ecosystem seems to have a permanent class of 20 million people who demand H and R Block services with revenue per return. Catering at 2.7% per year for 23 years.

[A]

Did you say cagering?

[B]

That was in the. That's what he wrote.

[A]

Catering. We. Oh, keggering.

[B]

Cagring. Sorry, not cake. But it's just saying that like for some reason some of these businesses, it feels like they should be disrupted and they haven't. And I think that's going to be the surprise with AI is the businesses that don't get disrupted. I don't think people are thinking through which businesses won't get disrupted. Okay, can I give a simple example of AI being cool?

[A]

Yes.

[B]

So my kids, my twins are in third grade and they do this math thing where it's a timed math question and they do multiplication. So it's twos, threes, fours, all the way up to 12s, right? 3 times 2, 3 times 4, it's the same and you get 60 seconds to complete it. And if they complete the level, they go up to the next level. And so they're very competitive. So if they don't pass one of them one week, they come home and they work on it and they practice, which is kind of cool to see. So then they go to division and they're like, ah, division's harder than multiplication. I got it. And so I went to Claude and I said make me a 10 question quiz for each of these numbers. Because I looked, I tried to do it on my, on the iPad and it was like you have to pay 9.99amonth for this math thing. I'm like, oh, that's stupid. So I asked Claude create this for me. And Claude created it and like if they passed the quiz, all this confetti rained and stuff and it's just this little stupid thing. And it was awesome because now they have one for. I say, okay, do this for the next one. And then it didn't work. One time I said it didn't work fix and then it fixed it immediately. That, that kind of just small little

[A]

Thing, it's really cool. I, I, I hit my limit on Claude yesterday because I, I was only paying $20 a month and I, I couldn't have hit $100 faster, like without, without any hesitation. I don't, I'm, I don't think there's a hundred, I don't think I pay $100 for anything other than like Internet. Right. Any like sort of monthly service. That's not true. Phone bills or whatever. But, but anyway, my, my point is it was not even a split second decision. I was like, all right, I, I, I, I need more.

[B]

I am diversified. I'm using Claude and Gemini in chat now and I, for some reason I, I just know which ones I want to use for which and I'm, I'm, I'm not, I'm using them all email.

[A]

You mentioned Star Trek earlier in the show. Watching the episode this week, I realized what it would help, I realized what would help Michael not be so down about AI is if he had been a Star Trek fan, he would realize that AI and computers doing every menial task isn't a nightmare, but is actually the world of Star Trek. People don't have jobs in the show because they need money. There is no money. They have jobs if it's something they are passionate about and it helps to advance humanity. Okay, still not watching Star Trek.

[B]

But that's, that's the abundance. All right. I already did the, I, I just,

[A]

I rejected whole argument of the abundance for, for four day work week. What would you do with, what would you do with your time? People do not want abundance.

[B]

No. And again, we would have to have some sort of UBI or like. Yeah, I don't see, I could hear,

[A]

I could hear people pushing back like, yeah, it must be nice that you actually like your job. I get it. Not everybody likes their job.

[B]

The question is, could we have this for 5 to 10% of the labor force that gets displaced that they're going to have to have some sort of ubi. Is that possible?

[A]

That is such a political lightning rod. I don't know.

[B]

Yeah, that's the thing people are thinking about. All right, let's talk real estate. California, I think is the most broken housing market in the country. This is from the Wall Street Journal. In California, about the only way to get a house is to inherit one. 18% of all property transfers in the state last year representing nearly 60,000 homes were made through inheritance. That is a record in California. It's double the national average, which is 8.8%. So they're showing that this number of inheritances like is just rising every single year. And they had these stories of these people saying, hey, the parents bought a house for 150,000 back in 1990 and now their kids are just waiting for them to die so they can take over their house. And that's the only way they're going to own a house. And they're saying the big part of it is the property tax thing. So that Prop 13 where they capped how much property taxes can increase by that just makes it so much harder for new buyers who have much higher market valuations and much higher taxes to pay. And you see this in a lot of states. Michigan announced this recently that they're trying to cap or reduce property taxes that baby boomers pay. And this is going to be way more generational warfare if they keep trying to do this stuff. Baby boomers are saying, listen, we don't have kids in school anymore, why should we have to pay the taxes for it?

[A]

Oh boy.

[B]

Anyway, this whole inheritance thing with housing is going to be a thing in the future though. This is going to be a big thing.

[A]

I wonder what people do are going to do with the homes that they inherit.

[B]

That's the question, right?

[A]

I would, I would assume most sell, maybe few. If you live there, that's because you

[B]

get the step up basis and cost so you don't have to worry about paying taxes. I don't know, it's gonna be, it's gonna be a big story for decades to come. You're right. Do, do kids want to live in their parents house maybe?

[A]

Shut up. Go throw a rock at them. Unbelievable.

[B]

Send your dog over here to bark at them, please. My dog wouldn't, wouldn't help much. God. All right, you have been talking about the private equity firms for a while now and you were bullish, I don't know, 18 months ago because of the coming wave of wealth wealth management. And the worry now is, okay, this is gonna, this is gonna stop or come to a halt or people are gonna take a breath and these stocks are getting crushed. Blue is down 60%. This is from Bespoke. KKR is down almost 50%. Aries is down over 40%. Blackstone's down over 40%.

[A]

Blackstone. Blackstone is down another 8% today. I own the stock and I will be selling it today. And I will say we'll get into the story in a second. Um, I would say that this sale that I'm going to be making today is probably going to look stupid in. I don't know if it's a year, two years, three years, I don't care. There are, there are, there are stocks that you're comfortable holding for a long time. And for me, I have no interest in finding this tape. So I'm down, I'm down 13% of the stock and I'm going to take a loss today.

[B]

It's the, with the market as a whole, you never wait for the dust to settle. You don't wait for the dust to settle to invest. I feel like with stocks like this, this is, it's okay to wait for the dust to settle a little bit.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Is that fair?

[A]

Let me just, just clarify. So this pile of money that I've been talking about with like stocks that are trading stuff, this is, this is not like my buy and hold account. This is more of a high. Right. So, so I'm not looking to now, like I, last week I said Netflix. I'm buying and holding that name because I was comfortable with whatever the outcome was, not to brag, which. We'll get to that in a sec. This is not one of those names. So I think that, I think that, listen, selling Blackstone is going to look foolish in hindsight, but I was, I, I was, I was wrong.

[B]

So black.

[A]

So here's the story.

[B]

Hang on. Blackstone fell almost 40% during the liberation Day sell off last year, recovered almost all that loss, and is now 20% below the lows of Liberation Day.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

This is a, this is a legitimate crash.

[A]

Yeah, Hell yeah, it is. So the story is. All right, so it's a, it's a multi pronged story. I might have said this last week, so I won't belabor the point.

[B]

I guess every headline that comes out about private credit is terrible these days.

[A]

Yeah, every one of them. Private credit started to decline. I don't know when it peaked a year or two ago. The reason why is because these things have floating rates, which is what made them so attractive in 2022 when the rate hiking cycle stopped and rates are coming down. Investors are getting less, less reward, okay. For every same unit of risk because they're getting lower distributions. So that had already been weighing on these, on these instruments to begin with. And then it was the cockroach stuff that spooked the market a little bit. Even though we saw no, no credit distress like that. That part of it did blow over in the sense that there wasn't any sort of market contagion any of the. Now maybe we'll, maybe it'll come out in a year or two, I have no idea. But the first, the first brands, tricolor stuff, that sort of stuff didn't spread, but it didn't help sentiment. And then the nail in the coffin was software. And that's the part of it that I didn't see coming. Obviously that made my thesis 100% wrong because B CRED, for example, 26% of the portfolio is in software stocks. Now if you look at the equity, I know these are senior secure, like first lien debt type of instruments, but if you think about the equity of the mega cap stocks that are down 60%, what do you think the equity is down on these middle market companies that are doing $300 million in earnings? 90%. So again, there's no the, the date. The fundamentals of these portfolios look good today. Investors don't care about today. So the story broke yesterday from, from, from the FT that Blackstone's flagship private credit fund was hit with $1.7 billion of net outflows over the past month. It's an $82 billion fund, so it's 8% of the assets wanted their money back. What was interesting to me is that they had $2 billion of new money come in in the first quarter, $3.7 billion of redemptions. I am guessing almost all of that $2 billion happened in the first half of the quarter. There's no way that anybody is allocating today, so that number is going to be even worse in the second quarter. Now what's interesting is that Blackstone paid out the redemptions in full, so 5% of the. Of. Of the money wanted back. They gave it back.

[B]

So they didn't gate it or anything like that?

[A]

They didn't gate it, but they even gave back 7%. So they, they honored all the redemption requests. How did they do that? The firm and its employees invested $400 million to help cover the qu. The request, which is interesting. I think that's a sign of confidence again. I think that, I think that it's

[B]

also one of those things that's not repeatable. Every time there's a big redemption request, though, that's the problem.

[A]

So that, so the point, like, so why, why am I selling this stock that's in a. That's crashing? Because who, like, I'm not interested in getting married to the stock. Who knows how bad it's gonna get. I don't care if it's gonna be higher in two years, if it's gonna be down 20% from where I bought it. I'm not interested in taking a 30% loss, you understand? Anyway, I was, I was obviously wrong on that one.

[B]

Cut your losers short, right? That they say, well, yeah, I bought,

[A]

I bought this to make money and I'm not making money. So that's, that's trading. All right, let me, let me.

[B]

It's going to be interesting to see what happens to this space for the first time in, you know, however long where money is not just pouring in now.

[A]

Okay. Actually, you know, this is a very important point to make. The fee related earnings are going to be relatively stable, very stable, because the nature of this vehicle. So what's so interesting is that we're talking about like these private funds and the structure that is causing the problem. Because people are like, well, I want to get my money up before everybody else does. Right? That's actually help. That's, that's saving the investors. If, if, if this was a, like publicly listed, the thing would be getting mauled, right?

[B]

Oh yeah, right.

[A]

The thing would be absolutely getting bald and making the big assumption that there is not catastrophe waiting in the portfolio. The investors that are not allowed to get their money back will in all likelihood be better served in the long run.

[B]

You can't panic, even if they're not necessarily happy.

[A]

Yeah, you might be pissed off, but you might be better served in the long run. All right, let me, let me play, let me play something for you. We're talking about prediction markets now. This is from Mike Selig. He is the Chairman of the CFTC. This was February 17th.

[B]

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig here. Over the past year, American prediction markets have been hit with an onslaught of, of state led litigation. In response, the CFTC has today filed a friend of the court brief to defend its exclusive jurisdiction over these derivative markets. Prediction markets aren't new. The CFTC has regulated these markets for over two decades. They provide useful functions for society by allowing everyday Americans to hedge commercial risks like increases in temperature.

[A]

Hold on, let me play that black piece.

[B]

Useful functions for society by allowing everyday Americans to hedge commercial risks like increases in temperature and energy price spikes. They also serve as an important check on.

[A]

I can't anymore. Okay. Did he just say they allow everyday Americans to hedge their risk if the wrong. So. So, all right. The governor of Utah quote, tweeted this and said, mike, I appreciate you attempting this with a straight face, but I don't remember the CFTC having authority over the derivative market of LeBron James rebounds. These prediction markets who are breathlessly defending are gambling, pure and simple. They are destroying the lives of Families of countless Americans, especially young men, they have no place in Utah.

[B]

Okay, prediction markets, because the state thing, there's still a lot of states. You can't do draftkings or fandueling. Right? You can't bet on sports legally yet.

[A]

Do you think, can we say with a straight face that people that can't get insurance in Florida are going to be using the prediction markets to insure themselves or hedge the risk?

[B]

Of course not.

[A]

Because I know it doesn't sound like the dumbest thing in the world, like the idea, but also the idea that it's actually going to happen, that there are actually people who are uninsurable that are going to be aware of and have the means to properly hedge out the risk. What planet are these people on?

[B]

Right? Or if you were worried about higher gas prices from a war in the Middle east, you bet in an energy contract as insurance every. Every month or so and it finally spikes or something because energy prices rise. Like, no one's actually doing it. Sounds really great in theory. No one's actually doing that.

[A]

So I. My take on prediction markets is that five to 10 years from now, they are going to be a normal part of, of the conversation. They will have been fully integrated and regulated. But between now and then, there's going to be a lot of smoke and a lot of really pissed off people. Because, for example, one of the solutions that I had last week for these markets, which I think, I do think that there are aspects, first of all, I think it's inevitable. All right, so we cannot like it all we want, but I genuinely think that there are aspects that are positive for society.

[B]

No, they're not going away. You know what it's like. I had a friend in high school whose dad was a big, like, boxing fan and he used to get the original UFC fights. And this is back when there was no. So it was like a 450 pound dude versus like a 128 pound Jiu Jitsu guy. And like, there was no rules, there was no weight classes. Was just this, this crazy thing. And every once in a while, like blood all over the thing and it, it made no sense. And now there's weight classes and there's belts and there's rules and there's limits. And that's the prediction markets. Like, they, they're the UFC in the early days still. Like, they need rules and regulations.

[A]

So I don't even want to touch the third rail of like, should betting on wars, could that have societal benefits to warn people? I have. Come on. I'M not going to go there but this is the part that is absolutely insane and there's nobody that that likes us. So Mike Levin tweeted It appears that a Poly Market account called Maga my man made $515,000 in a single day betting on last night's US strike in Iran with the first trade placed 71 minutes before the news broke publicly when this person brought it bought in the market had this at a 17% probability they turned roughly $87,000 into over half a million dollars overnight. Bloomberg was all over this. They wrote as US And Israeli bombs fell on Iran this weekend. Betters on Polymarker where $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the strikes. We're cashing in six accounts on Poly market made around a million dollars in profits. The accounts were all freshly created in February and it only ever plays bets on when u S strikes might occur.

[B]

Right. I don't think anybody inside of trading.

[A]

Come on that's just we, we, we just, we got to do better. There was also a smoke around cash. Maybe even more so actually.

[B]

Well it's like people have told us with the if there's the reason that some of these NBA players have gotten caught by DraftKings or FanDuel is because it's like if there's crazy amount of money being bet on a guy for like getting over under rebounds in a game like they know that it's red flagged. Right. So this kind of stuff should be red flagged by these. If they see bets like this happening it should be red flagged and they should just void them. Right.

[A]

Anyhow so I don't want to misspeak but Kalshee had a market will the leader be out by a certain date if Iran but they're not allowed to so they are regulated by the cftc. Polymarket is not. You cannot bet on death. Like thank God the CFTC does not allow you to do that. But that's sort of like a. I don't know if it's a wink wink but come on. How else would the supreme leader be out? He's been there for how many. The only way for him to leave was through death.

[B]

Like let's people. People were really mad about this.

[A]

Obviously let's call spade a spade. So the bets were voided, they refunded all, all fees and whatever and it was returned to the probability of wherever you place a bet. So if you would have won money you didn't anyway people were pissed off but we just Got to clean this shit up,

[B]

I guess. Here's, here's a really good use case for it, I think about putting your money where your mouth is if you think something is right. So this is from the Wall Street Journal.

[A]

Wait, hold on. Can I just say one, one lesson on this. So on the positive externalities from this, what if there was a market on the Citrini Think piece? Will unemployment be over 10% by, by 2028? And guess what, if that was a liquid market and it was showing a 7% probability or whatever, that would make me feel better. And it's not to say that it would be right, but I value the wisdom of the crowds.

[B]

That's a Put your money where mouth is. So that's what this Wall Street Journal piece is. The tax nerd who bet his life against his life savings against Doge. Remember there were tech people who were saying Doge is going to balance the books. Just wait. We're going to cut trillions and trillions of dollars of, of federal spending. This Alan Cole guy said he put his life savings $342,000 and he basically bet they had, they had this thing that each quarter federal spending had to exceed the level of spending in 2024, fourth quarter. Okay, so like he just had to bet that like it wasn't going to fall by $60 billion or something. Of course, guess what? Nothing stops his train. Federal spending did not fall. It kept rising. And he thought, he said just knowing how government works, there's no way they're going to be this much spending. It's. And he, I guess he made, he made 30% on the thing or 40% or something. He made like $128,000.

[A]

Great story, love it.

[B]

He took all of his money for his brokerage account. His wife was like, what are you doing? Honestly, it's great because he was like, listen, the way that people are talking about this cutting money, which is funny to think back, like people really thought that we were going to fix spending problem. And guess what, we're never going to fix it. But that was his thing is like, we're never going to fix it. And he put his money where his mouth is and he won. He was thinking like, this is, this is an arbitrage, this is a risk free bet. But he also said like, listen, the virtue of a matching market is you can take the good side of a bad bet, someone else's bad bet. So other people had made literally put their money in their mouths and they said, we think the government is going doge is gonna work. They are gonna be able to cut spending and they were wrong. That's the cool thing about these markets. Like you're right. Hey, you think AI is gonna take over the world? Put your money where your mouth is, bet on it.

[A]

Yeah, I like so yeah, there's great parts of it but the insider trading stuff, the betting on war stuff, the not great. Okay, all right. So wrong on Blackstone certainly won't be the first. Wasn't it was not the first. It's not even the hundredth. I'm being honest, won't be the last time that I lose money on a stock. One thing that I was extremely right about and made money on still own the stock I made the case on. What are your thoughts for IMAX in April of 2024?

[B]

Yeah, you've been talking about this for a while.

[A]

The stock was $17, it's now 42. And I would act like I've been there before if I had. The truth is I haven't. Okay, so allow me for a minute to pat myself on the back. I've said on the show a million times I am not the type of person, I do not have the personality unfortunately to ride like a forget about 10 bagger. I take winners too fast. Okay. Now I don't take big losses. That's one of my strengths when it comes to trading. But I have a trouble. I've never made more than 150% on a stock. Okay, but the thesis behind IMAX was that people are going to continue to want a premium experience. And when I said this movies were so dead, the theater was so dead. This idea was obviously not consensus.

[B]

So the idea is if you're going to go out to the movie and you don't go to the movie as much as you did in the past, you're going to a really nice yeah, go high end. I used to go to one movie a month, now I go to two movies a year. I'm going to make it worth my while.

[A]

Exactly. So the Stock was up 14% after a record earnings report last week. Rich Gelfond, the CEO, said IMAX releases earned 58 Academy Award nominations including five of the best 10 picture nominees. Every one of the Warner Brothers 30 nominations was a for a film that played on IMAX, they delivered 20 of the domestic opening for Sinners 1 Battle and F1. So this chart that they show of the top 10 grossing IMAX titles for the domestic opening weekend, they showed like the market share that they have and in 20 pre Covid it was 9, 9, 10%. And now it's 15.

[B]

But now, and they make up how many. What percentage of the theaters it's a.

[A]

Less than 2. Less than 2%.

[B]

Less than 2%. That's crazy.

[A]

So literally like 20% of opening domestic box office weekend. So people are going, people are showing up for these movies, which is awesome. Let's talk about, let's talk about Hollywood. So Netflix, you know what, let's just say with on this thing for a second. So I do not, I do not check the comments. I really and truly don't. I, I, I love that we have so many people commenting. I feel blessed out of my mind. For newer listeners, I guess I haven't spoke about my past in a while. Like, I was a loser, kicked out of college twice, didn't have a job until I was 27 years old. Like I was going nowhere fast in life. So the fact that we have an audience and that I'm a hashtag thought leader and that people care what we say, it's unbelievable. I love it. And I don't mind the fact that we have a lot of negative comments on the YouTube. We have a lot of people that post wonderful comments. So I love you more. But the fact that we have people that post negative comments, it doesn't bother me because we're, we're public. We're public figures. And this is, this is part of what we signed up for.

[B]

Every 10 positive comments, you read one bad one and it sticks through the whole day.

[A]

So I don't mind that there are negative comments posted about us, but why would I choose to see them, right? Like, why would I expose myself to that? Because it really bums me out. I'm like, I'm a sensitive person. I don't like, nobody likes seeing stranger on them. So it bums me out. And I genuinely, genuinely do not.

[B]

Negative comments make me stronger.

[A]

Not me. Not me. So anyway, I, I, I love that they're there, but I don't need to see them anyhow. I made the stupid mistake of waiting into the comments section. So on Friday afternoon, I was sitting on my butt on, on fake turf. Logan was at like a baseball clinic, right? Swinging the bat and whatever. I said, hey, you know what? I kind of nailed the software Netflix bottom especially. And Netflix was my biggest position by far. Like, I nailed it. Let me see some nice comments. Let me see some people say some nice things. Give myself a shot of the army. Someone at Ritholtz, please take one to two hours and teach Michael about basic technical analysis. Analysis. At the very least, don't buy a stock and it's free fall, wait for it to go sideways, blah, blah, blah, blah. Excuse me, Peter, does Warren. But you teaching Warren Buffett about technical analysis. Okay, you said you were buying when

[B]

there's blood in the streets last week. That was your thing.

[A]

I bought when there was blood in the streets. And I respect price. And I always say that I can't help my bad behavior sometimes for buying stocks that are out of favor. I'm up 25% of Netflix. Peter, not to brag, but the thing that really made me laugh, but also, like, really didn't make me laugh, was he just. Somebody replied, he just bought a waterfront home. He's over leveraging. He's paddocking.

[B]

Perfect.

[A]

I thought the comments were gonna be nice. I nailed it.

[B]

No, no, I nailed it.

[A]

Thought people were gonna be nice.

[B]

Yeah, but you give out five stocks and three of them go up and two of them go down, of course people are gonna focus on the two that go down. That's. That's hilarious. So let's talk about the Netflix Warner Brothers.

[A]

Oh, yeah, let's do that.

[B]

Okay, so Paramount 1. Netflix backed out. Netflix backed out of this so freaking fast. And I guess they saw the writing on the wall. They don't want to. They don't wanna mess with it. Now, you can't say Netflix went through this whole thing because they wanted to just mess with Paramount, jack up the pressure for Warner Brothers and then walk away with a $2.8 billion.

[A]

It's too much work for that. They wanted it. They wanted the asset.

[B]

Netflix is so much better off. But here's the thing that kind of irks me. These media, these big, huge media things where a company takes on tons of debt, and that's what Paramount does. These mergers never, ever work. I wanted to see what Netflix would do with this. That's the thing that kind of bums me out is I wanted to see how Netflix would handle this being this big behemoth. And I know a lot of people didn't want it. I wanted to see what Netflix would do with hbo. I'm hbo and now I'm with Paramount. They're like the two buggiest streaming platforms. Like, you click on em, they never work and they freeze. Like, I don't think Paramount's going to make things better. And I think this is going to be another media merger that there's too much debt being spent and there's a million cuts to of people to pay off the debt. And then it just kind of, in five years, we go, oh, yeah, let's spin these out now. Because it didn't work.

[A]

HBO has a new show out called. What the hell is it called? Called dtf.

[B]

The Jason Statement one. Yeah.

[A]

Did you watch it yet?

[B]

Now that it come out. I saw the preview.

[A]

I, I, it just looks good.

[B]

Okay. All right, I'm in.

[A]

So you're, so you're, you're, you're bummed by the outcome.

[B]

I, I just wanted to see because again, these media mergers, they never work. Maybe this one will. But I wanted to see what Netflix would do with it and what they would do with hbo. I wanted, like, a wider. I wanted to see if what HBO would have done as part of Netflix. That's what, that's what bums me out.

[A]

Yeah, I agree. There's. There was no good outcome here, but I think this is the worst outcome. Now, Paramount, this was like, they needed this. So does history say that this is not going to work? Yeah, but they had no choice. Like, they were so dead without this asset. Sarandos is saying that, that there's going to be costs cutting in excess of $16 billion.

[B]

Yeah, he was doing the math based on the debt. And they. CNBC had a piece where they interviewed people who work at Warner Brothers and they're like, oh, we're screwed.

[A]

This is a catastrophe for people in Hollywood and for people that work at the news departments. Like, there is going to be a ton, a ton of layoffs. So perhaps better for the theater industry,

[B]

but I think we're putting off the inevitable by not having Netflix buy.

[A]

Oh, my God, the amount of cuts. All right. Anyway, I'm in Netflix at $77.50, Peter. And, and I'm not selling. How do you like that? Is a buy and hold for me. All right. Project Hail Mary is going to be a big one.

[B]

Is that a summer blockbuster? When does it come out?

[A]

It comes out in april. They spent $250 million on this thing. This is by. So Amazon has not. This is from.

[B]

From Bellamy, one of my favorite fiction books I've read in the last five

[A]

to seven, I think, I think they can nail it. I'm bullish.

[B]

I hope Gosling doesn't miss very often.

[A]

These are Amazon's top 10 post Covid box release box office hits. Red 1. Do you remember that movie?

[B]

Yeah, I tend to take my kids to see it.

[A]

The beekeeper, the accountant 2. A working man challengers, air crime 101, the boys in the boat, mercy and blink twice. That's that's pretty weak. And I didn't even. I didn't even say the numbers. I'm sorry. So the biggest one was $186 million. That is really, really lousy.

[B]

That is interesting.

[A]

That's really lousy worldwide. Are you kidding me? Anyway, project Hail Mary is. Is. I would be shocked if they don't smash the record.

[B]

That makes sense. All right. I thought this was good at the Wall Street Journal. Here's the headline by Emma Camp, who is a Gen Z person who says her whole goal in life is to end the loneliness epidemic. She says, loneliness is for cowards. No one is stopping you from throwing a party. And she goes through this whole thing about loneliness, about how young Americans are lonelier than ever and they're eating alone and working alone. And she says, I'm in my 20s. I'm here to tell you loneliness isn't an epidemic. It's a choice. My generation has decided that avoiding embarrassment or rejection is more important than developing a thriving social circle. The main social obstacle facing Gen Zers isn't social media overstimulation. It's their own trepidation. I think young people need to hear this kind of hard talk every once in a while.

[A]

Me too.

[B]

They don't need to be so coddled.

[A]

Me too.

[B]

And I think every time we talk about this, someone vehemently disagrees with us. But I think trading physical health, which is. I'm not gonna go drink as much anymore. I'm not gonna go out and party for mental health, which is TikTok and iPhones, is an absolutely terrible trade off for their mental health. Like, I think that I.

[A]

People get really bent out of shape about when people say that young people should drink. I can't believe where society is. How, How. How bearish people are in drinking.

[B]

Yes. That it's causing huge mental health problems for young people by not partying more. It sounds crazy to say, but it's totally true.

[A]

Yeah. And I honestly, I don't want to hear it. Actually, you know what? Comment away. I'm not going to see it. I will die on this hill. I think that the benefits of drinking, even if you have two drinks, greatly outweigh. Listen, like, for me and Michael, you're rational. Yeah, I am. Okay. I. I am more free to have a good time when I'm drinking. Do I sound. Does that sound bad? I don't care. Well, no, it's true.

[B]

It's a reason to socialize, too. You go to someone's house for party, it doesn't have to Be that everyone gets wasted. But the other thing that I'm anti is like the aura rings that tell you how that you slept. I don't need a machine to tell me how I slept. I can tell by how I wake up in the morning, how I feel. Do I feel rested or do I not feel rested? That's how I slept. I don't think that like people over optimize this stuff way too much. Now

[A]

that's like for adults. I don't care. At that point, you make your own decision.

[B]

Yes, you're right. True. You and I are at different stages of our life than people in their 20s that need to get out and see people more.

[A]

I also. Whatever. It's enough. Who cares what I have to say about this? All right, let's talk about. Let's talk about Scream 7, shall we?

[B]

God.

[A]

Speaking of Paramount, the David Ellison owned Paramount can claim the first big number one opening of the year for an NPA title. Spyglasses. Scream seven wars to a franchise best opening of the year with a 64 million dollar domestic opening. 97 worldwide. Wow.

[B]

So you're telling me that this movie made more than the original one did the opening.

[A]

No.

[B]

Did I read that wrong? Okay, yes.

[A]

You. You. Yeah.

[B]

Franchise. Best opening of the year. The Scream franchise. Best. Is that I was saying.

[A]

Well, Scream one became a phenomenon. I'm not surprised. Maybe, maybe, um. It's the best horror opening ever for Paramount beating Paranormal Activity 3. Ugh, whatever. Okay. Scream was an iconic, incredible movie. Yes. I assume you like, right? You like the original.

[B]

Of course.

[A]

One of the best movies ever changed

[B]

like the movie genres for the rest of the decade.

[A]

It really did. And then Scream 2 was an effective sequel. They went to college. Timothy Oliphant, Billy's mom. Spoiler alert. Like, it was good. Scream 3 was pretty silly. And then like that was. That was the franchise. Right.

[B]

That point Scary movie came on board and just started skewering them.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Like, come on, this is too much.

[A]

Yeah. So it got silly and that was the end of the trilogy. And then they rebooted it with Scream 4. It was okay. But then they did another two, Scream 5 and 6 with legitimate actors and genuinely good movies.

[B]

I watched one of them. They're okay.

[A]

They're. I mean, dude. Yeah. They're not going to win any asses. But like they were. They were more than watchable. They were actually good. Like, I bet you the critics didn't mind scream 6, scream 5. Rotten. So anyway, hey, we talked before about.

[B]

We don't need this. Come on we don't need Scream 7. We didn't need that.

[A]

So, dude, Scream in 2022, 76 from the. And 82 from the audience, it was Jack Quaid. It was genuinely a good movie. So I was. I don't know that I thought I had high expectations of this movie going in. Like, I wasn't like, oh, this is gonna be awesome. It was so, so bad. It felt like. I don't even want to insult Netflix and say that. It felt like a Netflix movie. It felt like a Lifetime movie. It was one of those movies that. So I watched the I know what you did last summer reboot at Home. I didn't go to the movie for that. That looked like dog shit. Where. When I saw that movie, I literally. I fast forwarded just to the murder scenes. Because I watched the first minutes, I was like, oh, this is depressing. And I just fast forward to the kills. If I watch Scream at home, that's what I.

[B]

Very psychotic thing to do.

[A]

Yeah, just. Just here. Here for the fake murders.

[B]

Just fast forward to the murder scenes. Not past the murder scenes. Just the murder scenes.

[A]

It was so. It was so bad. It was so bad. And that Married with The Mortal Kombat 2 trailer sort of bummed me out. I'm like, all this data, that's just this slop. Now the good news is that this is done. At least this part of the story is over. They will. But I can't believe. The audience must be so disappointed. A record breaking. It was so bad. My God. So, so bad. On the flip side, I finally saw. I finally saw Marty supreme. And you saw it, right?

[B]

I did not see that yet.

[A]

Oh, fantastic.

[B]

Okay. You liked it.

[A]

So good.

[B]

All right. You're a guy.

[A]

It felt very similar to Uncut Gems, which of course is the same director, but it was just more of that fantastic, fantastic movie. All right, lastly, Ben. This is not for you. And in fact, I'm. This is probably not really for many listeners, but I watched Predator Badlands.

[B]

Hey, it might be for me. We're on a Schwarzenegger kick in our house. Okay, so we watched the original Predator.

[A]

George is going to love this movie, and so are you. This movie had no business being as good as it is. It's like a buddy cop movie. Like a. Yeah, it was freaking awesome. Like, it was a lot of fun. George is gonna love it, and so are you. Report back. You're gonna like it.

[B]

All right, so I've. I've made a decision in my life. I haven't. I've been Stumbling from one audible to the next. I can't find a good audiobook. I just, you know, I start and I get bored and I've decided I'm never listening to another biography again. I'm never reading another biography again. They're too boring. I tried Benjamin Frankel by Walter Isaacson. Listen, some great information. He was a great man developing his philosophy. I just found myself mind numbingly bored. It's just, it's too much. And even though he was the original Kevin Durant, he had burners for all of his newspapers. He'd write in letters pretending to be someone else. You know, he was the original. Yeah.

[A]

So in that book there was a part where him and John Adams went to France and they slept in, in the same bunk bed. That's a lot. That's a lot of firepower in one bunk bed.

[B]

Yeah. So anyway, it's good, but I just need, I need like one chapter on these guys. So I went to Gemini and I said, give me a history book that like just. I don't want it to be bored. I want it to be like, I want it to be fast moving. I want it to like cover a lot of ground. I don't want like mind numbingly boring stuff in this person's life. So he gave me this book. It's called A Little History of the World by E.M. gombrich. I never heard of this book before. It's a book that this guy in Germany wrote for his 12 year old granddaughter in 1935. Now listen to this. 1935, when Gombrich was just 26 years old and living in Vienna, he was asked by a publisher to write a history book for children. He reportedly replied, of course I can. Then he wrote the book in six weeks, working from memory without consulting reference books. Okay. So he said, I'm gonna tell the story of humanity in a simple, engaging way. This is the best history book I've ever read. Listen to.

[A]

How did you find it?

[B]

I asked Gemini. And this is literally a book. It's called a history book for kids. But it's his explanation and story of human history. From the philosophers to the empires to the wars to the. Every chapter covers like another different empire. And it's read by a guy with a British accent, so that helps. It's. And maybe it's just because I have. Maybe I'm a very simple person. The fact that this is literally a history book for kids, but the way he explains all this stuff like the Egyptian, Egyptian empire and the Phoenicians and like how we got the days of the week and how we got numbers and how we got months and all this stuff and where all this stuff came from. You know, sometimes you hear a piece of history and you go, I should know this. Why don't I know this? I feel like an idiot for not knowing this. Like, Alexander the Great was tutored by Aristotle. I had no idea.

[A]

Just. That's firepower. Wow.

[B]

It's an unbelievable. And I'm gonna make my kids listen to it too, because it's so good. His storytelling is amazing. Anyway.

[A]

All right, Ben, it is 10:15.

[B]

Hang on. I got a couple more records.

[A]

I'm sorry.

[B]

All right, so I've been watching Love Story with my wife. Still. Can a soundtrack make something better? Because I feel like the 90s music in this show is better than the show itself.

[A]

Wait, what is Love Story, by the way?

[B]

JFK Jr. Thing.

[A]

Okay. Is it good?

[B]

It's a movie to watch with your wife or show to watch with your wife?

[A]

The only good thing about Scream 7 is I saw it with a friend, and not only did the entire movie Suck, like, in 20 minutes, I thought we should have left. The reveal of who the killer was was so convoluted that we were genuinely belly laughing. That's rare. Like belly laughing at the reveal.

[B]

Okay, that happens. So getting back to, like, why we need another Scream. So Scrubs is one of my favorite, like, under the radar shows of the late 90s, early 2000s. Like, it was a silly show, but it had some heart, you know, in the, like, 20 minutes. And it had a really great soundtrack too. And they, 20 years later, decided to reboot it. So the guy who created Scrubs is the same guy who did Ted Lasso and the same guy did Shrinking an Apple. So they brought back all the cast from the original and they did it again. And so my wife and I watched the first two episodes because we really. I loved that show. It was just. It was very well done. But the thing is, the finale of the show was excellent. It was an awesome, like, okay, here's what's gonna happen to these people. Put a period in it. It's done the end. Then they tried to reboot it, and it kind of feels like the show, but it's like, did we need this? I don't know. I just feel like we've run out of ideas.

[A]

Did you watch the first season of Paradise?

[B]

Yes. I feel like that's a one. I told my wife it's a one season show, but I'm going to give it a second season a try, but

[A]

the first one was so good. I'm cautiously optimistic that the second season will be okay and then that'll be that.

[B]

There's too many one season shows. My wife and I tried to watch the second season of Hijack. Remember the Idris Elba one on Apple?

[A]

Oh, credit to me. I was out after one season.

[B]

We were like, okay. All right, market update. S and P is down over 2.3%. Russell 2000 is down 3.6%. Gold is down 5%. European stocks getting drilled down 3 to 4%.

[A]

EM is down almost 8.

[B]

The dollar is up 1%. So we're pretty much we're reversing all of the trades of the past three months or so. 12 months. Big reversal.

[A]

So, all right, last week I bought Microsoft on the air. Wasn't a bad buy. Not to brag. I am selling Blackstone, Ben. I am taking a 13% loss because it's okay to be wrong. It's not okay to stay wrong.

[B]

You know, the funny thing is that software stocks are not really getting creamed today. They're down less than the market here.

[A]

This is the ultimate Grand Rapids hedge. I think this Blackstone sell will look foolish, but this is not an investment for me, Ben. I'm reiterating. This is not an investment. Don't want the smoke.

[B]

All right, as always, no one knows what's going to happen, including us. Email us.

[A]

And it's not investment advice. I mean, if. If you are following me, shame on you.

[B]

I'm not following you.

[A]

Yeah, good.

[B]

All right. Animalspirits@the compoundnews.com See you next time. Be nice to Michael in the comments, please.