Animal Spirits Podcast – Episode 430: "How Many People Make $100,000?"

Hosts: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson
Date: September 17, 2025

Overview

This episode unpacks the state of American wealth, income, the labor market, the post-pandemic economy, generational wealth dynamics, market euphoria, and investment bubbles—in Animal Spirits’ signature blend of market talk, nostalgia, and relatable banter. Alongside a post-Future Proof Festival recap, Michael and Ben dissect what it really means to earn $100,000, address generational spending myths, and debate whether current market conditions are fueling a new bubble or just another bullish run.

Main Discussion Topics & Insights

1. Future Proof Festival Recap & Millennial Nostalgia

• Vibes & Scale: The hosts reflect on doubting the longevity of the Future Proof event, only to be blown away by 5,000 attendees and vibrant energy ([03:02–04:48]).
  • Quote: “We walked out... and it's just a sea of people...the vibes were just off the charts, immaculate.” – Ben Carlson (03:36)
• 90s Bands & Generational Appeal: Discussion of Bush and Oasis concerts and the rise in cost of nostalgia due to millennials’ increased spending power ([08:08–09:14]).
  • Quote: "How do you invest in millennial 90s nostalgia? Because that's going to be a massive bull market." – Ben Carlson (09:13)

2. Generational Shifts in Fun & Partying

• Email on Youth Not Partying: Listener questions whether older generations are glorifying a past that wasn’t really as fun; Ben insists it was great, but recognizes generational differences and influence of social media on mental health ([10:23–11:47]).
• Modern "Monoculture": Today’s youth share memes and dress codes more than blockbuster movies and TV, but monoculture is alive and well in new forms ([71:42–72:20]).

3. Market Sentiment & Bubble Talk

• S&P Performance & Historical Parallels: Recent winning streaks and all-time highs lead to a debate: Is this euphoria, and are we due for a tech or AI bubble? ([16:03–24:06])
  • Quote: "Is there any chance we don’t get a bubble?” – Michael Batnick (22:42)
  • Both hosts agree: an outright dot-com style collapse is unlikely due to robust cash flows, but mini-bubbles and high volatility in select sectors are probable.
• Oracle’s Stock Surge & OpenAI Contract:
  Oracle's abrupt 40% climb was due to a massive $363 billion revenue contract from OpenAI, illustrating both the scale and opacity of modern tech deals ([17:43–19:47]).
  • Quote: “Seeing a 48-year-old database company suddenly grow by more than the size of a Salesforce... makes you wonder about the moment we’re in.” – Michael Batnick quoting Eric Newcomer (17:43)

4. Investor Behavior & Equity Risk Appetite

• 401k Allocations: Young investors now hold 90% equities, up from 76% a decade prior. Americans in general are more risk-on than previous generations ([33:10–34:55]).
  • Quote: "So participants in their 20s went from 76% in equities to 90%. All ages went from 66 to 71%.” – Ben Carlson (33:10)
• Global Risk Trends: U.S. remains an outlier in global equity ownership; more risk acceptance elsewhere could be bullish for future markets.

5. Labor Market Misconceptions

• Prime-age Participation: Despite headlines, the labor market’s fundamentals remain robust, with prime working age participation at a 20-year high ([40:16–41:27]).
• Layoffs vs. Job Openings: Layoffs remain subdued; the pandemic-era dynamic (more job openings than unemployed) was historically abnormal ([46:06–46:17]).

6. Household Income & Economic Disparities

• $100K+ Income Reality: Only 18% of individuals earn over $100K; median family income is at an inflation-adjusted all-time high ($105,800 in 2024). One third of American families now earn $150K+ ([43:54–44:40]).
  • Quote: “Median family income is at an all-time inflation adjusted high of $105,800 in 2024.” – Ben Carlson (44:02)
• Global Contrast: Only 2–3% of UK households cross similar income thresholds, emphasizing U.S. exceptionalism and consumption.

7. Consumer Spending Power

• Spending Driven by High-Income and Retirees:
  Consumption is increasingly concentrated among high-income earners and retirees, partially insulating the economy ([37:48–39:30]).
  • Quote: "Retirees continue to make up more and more of US Consumption...less sensitive to job market feedback loops." – Michael Batnick (38:22)
• Disconnect between Economy & Markets: The stock market and GDP remain uncoupled as S&P earnings come mostly from goods sectors, unlike GDP’s service-heavy structure ([35:20–36:36]).

8. Public vs. Private Markets & Alpha

• IPO Performance: IPOs, on average, underperform broad markets by 20% over three years since 1980. Successful IPOs quickly leave small-cap indexes, further diffusing their positive performance ([29:28–32:17]).
• Private Market Bubble: Over 79% of unicorns from 2021 remain unprofitable, showing that the real bubble—and its aftermath—has played out in private markets ([59:19–60:01]).

9. Cultural Observations & Social Media

• Social Media Critique: Extended reflection on the damaging psychological and societal impacts of social platforms ([62:52–67:00]).
  • Quote: “Social media has been an absolute disaster for the world. Like, just hard stop.” – Michael Batnick (64:57)

10. Listener Emails, Recommendations & Lighthearted Moments

• Healthy debate on “best things to yell during football games,” parent-life anecdotes, car buying mishaps, and book/TV/movie recommendations (notably the Oasis doc, "Apple in China" book, and HBO’s "Tasket") ([70:01–81:07]).
• Quote: “[Oasis at Rose Bowl] was legitimately one of the best nights of my life.” – Michael Batnick (15:24)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On Market Bubbles:
  “I would say 80% chance of a bubble. It has to be. I don’t see how we get through this without some sort of at least mini bubble.” — Ben Carlson (22:43)
• On IPO Disappointment:
  "IPOs are terrible investments as a whole... 60% of IPOs had a negative three-year return from the first close." — Ben Carlson (30:25)
• On American Exceptionalism:
  "We're so ambitious and delusional that we all think we can be rich." — Michael Batnick (43:55)
• On Social Media:
  “No metaphor does the problem justice. I've compared social media to a dangerous psychological experiment, a hallucination machine, a Funhouse mirror, a digital sewer. But nothing captures the ludicrous insults, moral injuries and delusions... If the medium is the message, the message is mass psychosis." — Quoted Sam Harris, read by Michael Batnick (62:52)
• On Millennial Nostalgia:
  "Millennial nostalgia was just off the chains for us last week. How do you invest in millennial 90s nostalgia? Because that's going to be a massive bull market." — Ben Carlson (09:13)

Key Timestamps

• 02:24 – 05:39: Future Proof recap, first-timer insights, and music nostalgia
• 10:23 – 12:12: Listener email on youth behavior and party culture
• 16:03 – 17:43: Market sentiment & run, S&P 500 streak analysis
• 17:43 – 19:47: Oracle’s AI contract and stock jump
• 22:43 – 24:06: Probability and definition of a bubble
• 29:28 – 32:17: IPO performance myths and small-cap dynamics
• 33:10 – 35:00: 401k equity allocations and global risk-taking
• 37:48 – 39:30: High income and retiree-driven consumer spending
• 43:54 – 44:40: Reality check: how many people actually earn $100,000+
• 62:52 – 67:00: Mental health, social media, and mass psychosis
• 70:01 – 81:07: Listener emails, family anecdotes, TV/book/music recommendations

Tone & Style

• Warm, bantering, sometimes irreverent yet insightful.
• Seamless mix of personal anecdotes, market trends, and pop culture.
• Consistently open to challenging conventional wisdom and sharing moments of self-doubt and humility.

Summary Takeaways

• Most Americans don’t make $100,000, and only 18% cross this line—despite pervasive cultural memes to the contrary.
• The bulk of consumption is from high-income earners and retirees, helping buttress the economy even as segments falter.
• Despite impressive tech gains and “AI fairy dust,” there are pockets of bubble risk—especially in private markets, not just public ones.
• IPOs are on average a losing bet for most investors; today's capital markets actually diffuse “winning” IPOs out of small-cap indexes quickly.
• Social and psychological wellness are increasingly threatened by social media; monoculture evolves, but is not gone—it thrives in new generational forms.
• The American risk appetite is unmatched globally, and both the stock market and the economy are in unique, non-overlapping bull runs.

Contact: animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com
Next Episode: More on housing transactions and agent dynamics, continuing coverage of market trends, and Michael's moving story.