Is a 50 Year Mortgage a Good Idea? (EP. 438)

Summary

Animal Spirits Podcast – Episode 438

"Is a 50 Year Mortgage a Good Idea?"
November 12, 2025
Hosts: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson

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Episode Overview

This episode of Animal Spirits returns to the big questions swirling around investing, financial markets, and the consumer economy—with a spirited focus on narratives, generational wealth data, the so-called "K-shaped" recovery, and the recent media buzz about 50-year mortgages. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson balance data-driven optimism with a critical look at widely held perceptions, including inequality, Gen Z finances, and the "bubble or not" debate around big tech and AI.

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Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. Market Narratives, Predictions, and the Demand for Certainty

• Nuance vs. Predictions:
  • Michael notes the frustration some listeners have with their balanced, nuanced takes:

    “When you're consuming content, you want to... point to somebody and say, I'm so glad I listened to that guy because he, like, got me there. Or that asshole. I can't believe... Like, so people need a scapegoat or somebody to, like, root for.” (01:16)

  • Michael finally makes a bold call:

    “I think this AI trend takes the S&P 500 to 10,000... There will be corrections. I do expect a 20% pullback before we get there... if I'm wrong, I'm sorry.” (01:47)

  • Ben acknowledges the rarity and pitfalls of extreme predictions:

    “Most people need a Grand Rapids hedge. I feel like it's rare that you should say always and never in the markets... I would lean more towards this thing is going to get way stupider and insane...” (02:43)

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2. Bubble Talk: Are We in One?

• They discuss big tech valuations, bubble accusations, and how public perception lags fundamentals.
• Michael and Ben trade jabs over the origin of Ben’s “Is this a bubble for ants?” meme (03:38).
• Ben reframes the “guilty until proven innocent” mentality, suggesting markets should be presumed healthy until proven otherwise (03:59).
• Discussion turns to OpenAI and the cult of transformative tech as possible loci for bubble behavior, even if not publicly traded (04:15–04:39).

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3. Critique of Economic “Narratives” & the K-Shaped Recovery

• Sick of the Negativity: Ben rails against “K-shaped economy” narratives:

  “I'm sick of the K shape stuff. I'm sick of it... 62% of American household owns stocks. This number was way lower in the past. A majority of American households own stocks.” (07:37–08:46)

• They discuss how housing and asset ownership may affect sentiment and inequality perceptions, drawing on Peter Thiel's thoughts about the generational compact and capital accumulation (09:12).
• Michael and Ben highlight data showing positive wealth trends among younger Americans, even if real inequities persist (10:59–12:20).
• Michael:

  “What's relevant is that there is an affordability crisis right now for young people. There just is. So this chart is bullshit. Keep. But keep going.” (10:23)

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4. Real World Anecdotes & Indicators

• The “third of the crowd” effect at a Lions vs. Commanders game is used to puncture doom-narratives about middle-class decline:

  “You think all of these are like descendants of Henry Ford?... These are all deca millionaires that are traveling? Come on.” (13:09)

• They note that rich people have always won, but today’s visibility amplifies the sense of difference (14:51).
• Social media and materialism escalate cost-of-living anxiety:

  “There are so many luxuries that turned into necessities now. And that's what makes life so much more expensive." (15:17)

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5. Corporate Health & Earnings Data

• Corporations are, in Ben’s words, “weathering this decade better than anyone” (35:13), reporting robust earnings growth that outpaces the consumer.
• Quotes from company earnings calls dispel some “slowdown” myths:
  • PNC: “October spending is robust... it's still actually hanging in there among lower end customers.”
  • Bank of America: “The money movement to spending by these consumers was up 6% versus last October. Employment remains steady.”
  • JP Morgan Chase: “...we've seen strengthening both in confidence, and that does continue into the fourth quarter.” (16:15–17:26)

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6. Tech Stocks, Capex, and Bubble Debate

• The “Mag 7” (Mega-cap tech stocks) dominate discussions.

  “The Mag 7 is now larger than energy, materials, consumer staples, healthcare, financials, utilities and real estate combined.” (18:29)

• They discuss whether today’s tech market resembles past bubbles—are we in a beneficial, “infrastructure-building” bubble or heading for disaster?
• Ben: “This is a bubble, plain and simple... The question is, are the benefits of the bubble going to be worth it?” (22:14–23:03)
• Michael: “Some of the bubbles that lead to good, healthy things for society—they’re not all... Bubbles aren’t bad...” (23:03)

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7. Macro Policy and the “Rigged” Economy

• Discussion about Fed policy, potential rate cuts, and the inevitability of stimulus in future recessions.
  • Ben:

    “Any recession we get will be very short lived because they're going to throw everything they can at it.” (33:32)

  • Michael:

    “The market is rigged. Yes, in a good way, thank God.” (34:05)

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8. 50-Year Mortgages: Should We Hate Them?

• Ben introduces the hot-button topic after a viral post:

  “The housing guy, what's his name, Bill Pulte, said, we're working on a 50 year mortgage. It's a game changer. People on social media went nuts..." (42:31)

• They weigh pros and cons:
  • Ben:

    “I tell you what, I don't really hate it as much as most people... I have it as an inflation hedge. So from that perspective, I kind of think like, oh, this makes sense.” (42:50)

  • Michael sees it as an option, not a panacea:

    “For people that are struggling to get into a home, yeah, the 50 year. I don't think it's the worst option.” (43:28)

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9. Generational Inequality and Housing

• Ben advocates possible policy action for young, would-be homebuyers—like a one-time, low-rate mortgage to restore fairness for those locked out in recent years (43:59).
• Michael:

  “I am very much in favor of relief, homebuyer relief for young people. I think this is... probably the singular biggest issue in our economy right now.” (44:26)

• Mention data: First-time homebuyership at a record low, median age at a record high—indicative of barriers to entry (44:49).
• Practical discussion on why younger buyers may be avoiding even discounted new homes (48:24–50:31).

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10. Miscellaneous: Vegas, Vest Culture, and Anecdotes

• Entertaining rundown of Vegas “types” and casino culture, plus observational humor about “vest guys” in finance (54:01–61:40).
• Robinhood’s expansion into prediction markets and gambling analogies.
  • “[Robinhood] should have a bucket shop in Vegas. You should be able to go in there and trade penny stocks on like 50 times margin.” (54:20)
• Food inflation at casual chains (Sweetgreen, Chipotle) discussed and tied to shifting customer behavior.

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11. Listener Q&A: Mortgage Payoffs

• Detailed response to a listener with substantial assets debating whether to pay down a low-rate mortgage:
  • Ben:

    “You’re better off keeping that $130,000 just in cash.” (52:45)

  • Michael acknowledges the power of psychological comfort over math:

    “The psychological component of the money on a monthly basis matters so much more than what's sitting in the bank.” (53:03)

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12. Recommendations & Pop Culture

• Plugs for TV (Apple TV’s "Pluribus" pilot), movies ("Americana," "Oh, High"), and lifestyle goods (Amazon Echo Show, Tommy John undershirts).
• Extended banter on Guillermo del Toro's "Frankenstein" and “Materialists.”
• Survey: Ideal age to die—philosophical banter about mortality and aging (61:47–62:54).

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Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Michael Batnick:
  “I think this AI trend takes the S&P 500 to 10,000... if I'm wrong, I'm sorry.” (01:47)

• Ben Carlson:
  “Most people need a Grand Rapids hedge... I would lean more towards this thing is going to get way stupider and insane than it would like, oh, this is going to roll over tomorrow.” (02:43)

• Michael Batnick:
  “What's relevant is that there is an affordability crisis right now for young people. There just is. So this chart is bullshit.” (10:23)

• Ben Carlson:
  “Sick of the K shape stuff. ...62% of American households own stocks. If people are feeling better because of the stock market, most people own stocks.” (07:37–08:46)

• Ben Carlson:
  “Any recession we get will be very short lived because they're going to throw everything they can at it.” (33:32)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Nuance vs. Predictive Media: 01:16–02:43
• Bubble Debate & Tech Concentration: 18:29–22:14
• K-Shaped Recovery Critique: 07:37–12:20
• Corporate Earnings/Consumer Health: 16:15–17:26, 34:38–35:13
• 50-Year Mortgage Discussion: 42:31–44:49
• Housing Market Anecdotes: 48:24–50:31
• Listener Q&A – Mortgage Payoff: 50:35–53:54
• Vegas/Robinhood/Consumer Behavior: 54:01–58:59
• Generational Inequality: 44:26–45:17

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Tone & Style

The exchange is witty, candid, and conversational but grounded in data and thoughtfully critical of media-driven narratives. The banter between Michael and Ben is affable and at times self-deprecating, with frequent pop culture references that lighten the mood.

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Summary Verdict

The episode stands out for its willingness to challenge prevailing economic gloom with a data-driven, nuanced view. The duo dissect the 50-year mortgage debate, K-shaped recovery, and bubble anxieties while making the case that, despite real structural barriers, today's generational and market narratives are more complicated—and often less dire—than headlines suggest. If you’re new to “Animal Spirits,” this episode offers a robust, reality-based lens on markets and financial culture.

Transcript

[Michael Batnick]

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[Ben Carlson]

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[Podcast Host/Intro Narrator]

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

[Michael Batnick]

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. I was thinking about this during our episode last week, how when we're talking about the AI is it a bubble? Is it not a bubble? Will a pop want to pop? And we're, we're giving, we're providing nuance because markets aren't black and white. Of course, I don't know. You don't know. Nobody can see the future. But I was thinking about it from the point of view of the audience, and I think the audience must absolutely hate it because if you're listening to somebody talk about a basketball game, a football game, and they're talking about it like beforehand. Well, on the one hand, like Daniel Jones is playing really well, but on the other hand, this defense, blah, blah, who stop just who's going to win? I want to know who's going to win. I'm betting, tell me who's going to win. And I think when you're consuming content, you want to be able to, to at least point to somebody and say, I'm so glad I listened to that guy because he, like, got me there. Or that asshole. I can't believe, I can't believe it. Like, so people need a scapegoat or somebody to, like, root for. So I'll, I'll, I'll do it Ben. Okay, hedges off. I think that this AI trend takes the S&P 500 to 10,000. Obviously not in a straight line. There's the hedge. There will be corrections. I do expect a 20% pullback before we get there, but. But that's it. And hey, if I'm wrong, I'm sorry. If this is a bubble that pops tomorrow, my bad. I will admit it. I didn't see it. I saw the arguments for it, but I'm on the other side. I think we're going to 10,000.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. I could see you going this way because of our show that we did in Vegas. You were. You were getting more bullish along the. Further along we went on the show. And that's going to be released, I think, Saturday. Here's the thing, though. There are enough assholes out there who will give you extreme predictions. Most people need a Grand Rapids hedge. I think that's what they. That's what they come to us for. If I'm putting probability, and I'm a probabilities guy, I feel like it's rare that you should say always and never in the markets. I would lean more towards. This thing is going to get way stupider and insane than it would like, oh, this is going to roll over tomorrow. That'd be my. I can't imagine we haven't seen this thing get. If it's going to be one of these things and AI is going to be as transformative as people say it is, this has to get crazier. It has to.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. You ain't seen nothing that. I mean, I know this is just one stop. Is meta. Is meta flat for the year?

[Ben Carlson]

Here's the thing. I think.

[Michael Batnick]

What is. What is this, a bubble? France?

[Ben Carlson]

I think you stole that from me. Did you see my tweet? That was pretty good one. I said, meta Amazon, four out of the seven mag sevens. I can't remember which ones are up less than 10% this year. And my comment on Twitter was, is this a bubble for ants? I think you have to.

[Michael Batnick]

I might. I might have stole it from you. I don't remember the tweet, but it's certainly possible.

[Ben Carlson]

I mean, it's not like it's that original.

[Michael Batnick]

Right.

[Ben Carlson]

Here's the thing. I feel like everyone is assuming that the market is guilty until proven innocent, and you have to assume the market is innocent until proven guilty. I think that's the problem people have had this whole cycle, is assuming that it's guilty until proven innocent. And it's been the opposite.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. Now and there, it's. It's so easy. There's so many bubble anecdotes of, like, come on, guys. How do you not see it? Like, the Sam Altman stuff last week, Right? Like, how do you not see that there is some chicanery going on here? And by the way, if there's. If there's a bubble, that's the bubble. It's open. AI.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. They'd be the main culprit, which is kind of funny because they're not public. Whatever. All the public companies are tied to them.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, so getting back to what the audience likes and doesn't like, here's a segue, Ben. This is called a setup. I think we haven't. I don't. I think we have a decent idea who's in our audience, but, like, not really. I think we just say, like, oh, it's. We have advisors. We have, like, DIYers. We have sort of everyone. All right.

[Ben Carlson]

We want a lot of just normal people, too, that just have jobs outside of finance.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. So we are going to be conducting an audience survey. We would love to hear from you. We will put the link in the show notes. I'm. I'm very curious. I don't know when's the last time we've done this? It might have been for you. It's been a while.

[Ben Carlson]

A few years.

[Michael Batnick]

It's been a while. So please, if you can help us out. Obviously, it's anonymous. We're not going to bother you. We're not selling your data, but we've.

[Ben Carlson]

Ever done anything for you, do this for us. How's that?

[Michael Batnick]

There we go.

[Ben Carlson]

Also, nice sweater today. Good sweater game.

[Michael Batnick]

Thank you. This is a. This is a marine layer sweater.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, I could tell that had to be.

[Michael Batnick]

It's quite comfy. You know what's nice about it? Actually, you know what? Let's do this for a second. So it's very, like, warm and soft on the outside, but it doesn't. It has different material on the inside, so it's not, like, sticky. But I am. As you know, Ben, I. I am a sweater. I know I'm wearing a sweater, but, I mean, I sweat. I am one of those people that sweat.

[Ben Carlson]

You glisten.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. And so I'm very particular about my undershirt. However, I'm not actually even. And this is the ridiculousness of myself. And I know it feels weird to talk about myself in the fourth person, but I am very particular about what I wear underneath my shirt. But guess what? Here's the paradox. I don't have any undershirts. I just wear T shirts underneath like a complete moron. And I don't know what's taken me so long to find undershirts that actually fit and are the right material. Don't make me sweat too much because there's like a type of. There's a few types of fabric that when they touch my skin, it's over sweaty immediately. All right.

[Ben Carlson]

Like a breathable thing.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, so long. What am I talking about here? This must have been an Instagram ad that got me Tommy John undershirts. Holy moly. My life. I will never not wear a Tommy John undershirt unless something dramatic happens. I'm. I'm loading the boat.

[Ben Carlson]

You're like a new guy, new socks, new undershirts, man.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, but these are the things that matter. What took me so long? I'm wearing like, I'm wearing like old Gap shirts that are like seven years old as, like, I'm doing it. And then you could like, see the. You could see the, the, the. What is this? The neckline. I mean, it's all Tommy John's.

[Ben Carlson]

Also marine layer. They owe me some free clothes. You know how many people I've said to marine layer because of the stuff I wear on the show? To them, hey, Ben, what sweater are you wearing? Hey, here's a link to Marine Lair. I have a.

[Michael Batnick]

It's great stuff.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm not saying they need to. I'm not saying they need to advertise on the show. I'm saying they probably just need to be. Send me some free clothes. That's all. I don't ask for much. All right? I'm ready to go hard to the paint today because I'm sick of the negative narratives. I'm so sick of them. It just, it beats me down. Like the negativity. You. A couple. A couple weeks ago, this was you. You said you're sick of the negativity. I am, too. Okay?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, take. Take the baton. Run with it, Ben.

[Ben Carlson]

All right? I'm sick of the K shape stuff. I'm sick of it. Okay, let's. Let's look at this. Let's look at the facts. This is from the Wall Street Journal. Fact. Feeling great about the economy, question mark. You must own stocks. Investors. Rosy feelings about their stock market gains are powering spending. But it's a different story everywhere else. Okay, sure. They show this consumer sentiment and there's like a tiny little difference between the biggest stockholders and all stockholders and non stockholders. It's like this much. Okay? Consumer sentiment is crashing for people who don't own stocks. Okay, fine. They say, like, it's a different story for everyone else who doesn't own stocks. I get it. And then they show that the fact that, you know, the top. The percentage of people held by the top 20% of earners is 87% of stocks. Right. They show this other. This guy who. This is kind of funny. This guy sold his. Some of his stocks to buy a Porsche. Remember we had the Porsche conversation, Duncan, Guess how much he bought his Porsche for? $22,000 for 1999. We were saying it's impossible to find a Porsche for around $20,000. It happened. This guy said, I made a bunch of money. Stocks. I bought a Porsche. Whatever. Here's the thing. 62% of American household owns stocks. This number was way lower in the past. A majority of American households own stocks. Guess what? If people are feeling better because of the stock market, most people own stocks.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, I'm so glad to hear you say this.

[Ben Carlson]

Look at the bottom 50%, how much they own in stocks. This thing has quadrupled since 2020. The bottom 50%, okay. Own way more in stocks. Do the top 10% own a lot of stocks? Yeah, they do. Do more people than ever before own stocks? Yes, they do. Peter Thiel has this thing. You saw this email that was going on from Peter Thiel from 20 20?

[Michael Batnick]

No.

[Ben Carlson]

I feel like this almost has to be fake, but Peter Thiel sent an email and there was a story about this in the Free Press. He just sent it to Mark Zuckerberg and Mark Andreessen and Sheryl Sandberg, and here's what he says. I would be the last person to advocate for socialism, but when 70% of millennials say they are pro socialist, we need to do better than simply dismiss them by saying that they are stupid or entitled or brainwashed. We should try to understand why. And from the perspective of a broken generational compact, there seems to be a pretty straightforward answer to you. Namely, that when one has too much student debt, or if housing is too unaffordable, then one will have negative capital for a long time and. Or find it very hard to start accumulating capital in the form of real estate. And if one has no stake in the capitalist system, then one may well turn against it, which actually, like, that's a really good point. Yeah, it's a really good point. Here's the problem with this idea. It's totally vibes based. He's basing this on social media and vibes, not data. If you look at the data, look at this. Gen Zers. Millennials are less likely to own homes than their parents at the same age. But look at how much less likely they are. They're like, they're. It's a. Gen Z is still growing in terms of home ownership at their age. At age 27, 33% of Gen Z own a home. For Millennials, it was roughly the same for Gen Z or Gen X and Baby Boomers, it was a little higher. Okay. It was like 40%.

[Michael Batnick]

I'm with you and I love that you're cooking because I'm on the same exact. Not only we on the same page, Ben, we're on the same word. Okay. Because I saw you put this in the doc, and I was about to be like, dude, what are you talking about? The gap between these lines is nothing. So I'm so glad that we're saying the same thing here, because I was going to make the same point. However, I do think this particular chart is. I. I throw this out because we don't. Two things. Number one, I've said this a million times. Nobody compares themselves with a prior generation and feels either better or worse. Like, that's not relevant. What's relevant is that there is an affordability crisis right now for young people. There just is. So this chart is bullshit. Keep. But keep going.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, you. You just took the. To some of the thunder off of this, but okay, Gen Z, keep going. Okay, on a. On a inflation adjusted basis, Gen Z is richer than any other cohort at this. This stage of their life. Way richer than Millennials, way richer than Gen X, baby. More silent generation. They have way more money. On an inflation adjusted basis, the value of equities held by people under 40. You shared this with me a couple weeks ago from citadel, is up 300% since 2020. This is. People under 40 own 300% more stocks. Okay? So my point is, yes, there are some bad things. And obviously the cost of living, the student debt thing, the cost of living, the affordability of housing, that has to be weighing on people. But I feel like we're totally brushing aside all these other positives as well. And I think the problem is there, and I've mentioned this before, there's probably greater inequality among young people than there's ever been before. And if you see that there are young people that are doing well and they bought a house and they can afford it, and they got a 3% mortgage and you didn't. You are so pissed off. And I totally understand that, but I Don't just want to say like everyone is screwed. And I also think to the young people thing, I just have more faith in them than any other. I know people think social media cooked their brains and they'll never be able to own a house and they're going to live in their parents basement forever. I just don't, I don't accept that. This is the most educated, tech savvy generation we've ever had. I think they're going to figure it out.

[Michael Batnick]

I totally agree with you, Ben. And yes, there is inequality within young people like there is everywhere. We spoke a couple of weeks ago about how Gen Z cardholders at American Express are their fastest growing spenders, up 39% year over year make up an increasingly larger percentage of the pie that's spending. I was thinking about this yesterday or two days ago as Josh and I were at FedEx Field. What a dump. Almost. Almost. Almost makes MetLife Stadium look habitable. It's not. Those are the two worst stadiums in the NFL.

[Ben Carlson]

Can't believe you guys went to a Lions game without me. They look pretty good, right?

[Michael Batnick]

Great. Great team. You know, when they stack laporta and Amonra and Gibbs is in the backfield, it's just impossible.

[Ben Carlson]

They have so many weapons.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, and Jamo on the other side. Forget about it. It's not fair.

[Ben Carlson]

It's a really fun team to root for.

[Michael Batnick]

So about a third maybe of the fans there were from Detroit, like an incredible number to the point that they drowned out the commander's fans dramatically. Like audibly dramatically. And I said to Josh, dude, this is what I'm talking about. You think all of these are like descendants of Henry Ford? These are all deca millionaires that are traveling? Come on.

[Ben Carlson]

Is.

[Michael Batnick]

Is Detroit a coastal elite city? Like, I just don't buy the narratives. And, and obviously narratives matter.

[Ben Carlson]

Think about how much money it costs to, to fly to D.C. stay in a hotel, go to the game, tailgate tickets to the game. Food of the game. That's a really expensive weekend.

[Michael Batnick]

There was. There was 10 to 15,000 people from Detroit there. So. So Howard Marks wrote recently he waited on. On private credit. And he said one of the most prominent characteristics of the financial markets that I detected over the years is, is their tendency to obsess over a single topic at a given point in time. The topic eventually changes to another, but before it does, it's often the thing people want to discuss to the near exclusion of everything else. So he's talking about private credit, but so of course it is private Credit. It is tech. But the other thing, the thing that we're talking about right now is the K shaped economy. The journalists can't get enough of it. Obviously it has political ramifications. It's real, it's not made up. But they are pounding it into them. Pavement. There was an article over the weekend, wealthy travelers are splurging on luxury hotels like never before. So it's showing the breakdown between cabin and coach and premiere. Like I didn't, I'm over it. I'm not reading the article. I get it. Rich people are winning, right?

[Ben Carlson]

When have rich people not won though? When has that ever been the case? That rich people haven't been the winners in society?

[Michael Batnick]

Right. But I think, I think it's having really gnarly effects on how we perceive everything because things are fine. And I'm not, I know. Broken, broken, broken arrow here again. I'm not. We're not minimizing the challenges that the bottom 10% have. But when you look at the data. So we're basically done with earning season.

[Ben Carlson]

But here's the thing, here's the thing about the consumerism aspect of materialism. This is why social media is so bad for us. Because there we're seeing stuff where we weren't supposed to see. And you, you, I think everyone, the hard part for a lot of people is there are so many luxuries that turned into necessities now. And that's what makes life so much more expensive. It's not just student debt and housing. It's phones and Internet and travel, doordash door. All this stuff that people didn't have in the past that you think, like, if I don't have this, I'm not, I'm never going to get ahead or I'm not going to be living my best life. And so you. It's just, it's more expensive to live the way we live today.

[Michael Batnick]

That's right. Life was already ridiculously expensive in 2019 for most people. And then you got the inflation. So yes, a lot of things are totally effed for sure. Like no doubt, no doubt, no doubt. But we heard from earnings. Earnings. We heard from companies and they said economic. This in Bloomberg. Economic slowdown. Mentions are the lowest since 2007 on earnings calls.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh. From companies.

[Michael Batnick]

Lowest since 2007. Here's a few quotes that we pulled from the transcript. Those guys do great work. We mentioned them a bunch of. Okay, this is from the head of retail banking at PNC Financial Services. We were just looking at this sort of deep dive on the October numbers. Okay, October spending is robust. And while it's a little bit stronger at the upper end, it's still actually hanging in there among lower end customers. So that's been, frankly, given all the turbulence, perhaps a little bit surprising, even with the government shutdown. All right, bank of America, I just got the October data. And the money movement to spending by these consumers was up 6% versus last October. Employment remains steady. We can see that in the paychecks coming into our customer accounts. That's bank of America. Lastly, JP Morgan Chase, when we were looking at spend trends after a relatively softer, although still pretty solid second quarter, we've seen strengthening both in confidence, and that does continue into the fourth quarter. So this is. And again, I'm not minimizing how people feel. People are upset. It's in the political data. I get it. But things are. Things are okay.

[Ben Carlson]

Ish. The thing that Steve Eisman said when he talked to you and Josh about how the government spending and debt is just virtue signaling, I think there's a lot of that that goes on too. People.

[Michael Batnick]

100%.

[Ben Carlson]

No one wants.

[Michael Batnick]

People want money. Talking about how the bottom 10% can't afford anything. It's like, dude, why do you care?

[Ben Carlson]

Well, it's, it's, it's a. And again, it's not like we don't care, but like the. I guess my point.

[Michael Batnick]

You just muted yourself.

[Ben Carlson]

Sorry, I hit my keyboard. I guess the, the point is that I don't think that this inequality thing is ever going to get better.

[Michael Batnick]

No. And we're, we're just. We're fighting back. Back against the narrative.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

That only the rich people who own stocks, which is you mentioned, is 62% of. Only the rich people are doing okay and everybody else is dying.

[Ben Carlson]

We're trying to look at this more realistic.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, come on. It's not black or white. It's. It's somewhere closer to the middle.

[Ben Carlson]

You're right. You go to a concert with 30,000 people in a stadium, Is everyone there in the top 5%?

[Michael Batnick]

Right.

[Ben Carlson]

Everyone? All right, let's move on. Okay, let's talk about the big tech stocks. We haven't talked about them yet.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, seriously, they're not getting enough love on this episode. All right, here's a chart from Ned Davis research. The Mag 7 is now larger than energy, materials, consumer staples, healthcare, financials, utilities and real estate combined. Pretty remarkable. But again, given. Given the breakdown of all of the product lines at Apple that we spoke about last week, and you could do the same thing with Microsoft, you could break up Google, you could do the same thing with, with Amazon. They are earning as much money as the rest of the sectors combined. I don't have that data. I'm just saying, like, it's not, It's. I'm going to guess it's about even. And guess what, they're growing 20% a year. So even though this type of chart can break one's brain, when you look at the underlying reasons, max 7 earnings are up threefold. This from Yur and Timmer. Over the last three years, their earnings are, have tripled and the share price has quadrupled, which is exactly what you would expect, by the way. But earnings have quadrupled.

[Ben Carlson]

So these numbers are, these numbers, these numbers are kind of insane to me. So healthcare is $5.2 trillion. Okay. Nvidia is essentially the same size as the healthcare sector. Financials is 7.5 trillion now. So Nvidia we're not. It's. Nvidia is like a one good earnings day away from being as big as a financial sector. Holy smokes. It makes sense. It also hurts your brain to think about it, okay?

[Michael Batnick]

Yes, it does. And also, what would you rather own for the next three years? XLF or Nvidia? Now, what would you rather own for the next 20 years? Maybe that's a different question.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, we have that. This is a good thing. Like the Mag 7 versus this field here. Over the next five years, what do.

[Michael Batnick]

You got over the next three? I take the Mag 7.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. If you said the next five to seven, you might take the.

[Michael Batnick]

Over the next five to seven. I think I go the other way.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, we had a bunch of people chime in on can Meta or Nvidia fall 20, 20 to 30% in a day?

[Michael Batnick]

I pushed back against 30. I pushed back against 30. If you, if you said 20, dude, I would not have made a stink.

[Ben Carlson]

I said 20 to 30. In that range.

[Michael Batnick]

That's a huge range. That's a huge range.

[Ben Carlson]

What does the data show? Show me. Tell me what the data shows.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, so the, the two worst drops for Meta over the last five years. It fell 26% one day, it fell 25% another day. Now mind you, that's when, at the 25% fall, Ben, the market cap was $280 billion. You're crossing your arms like you just.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm like Leonardo DiCaprio with a cigarette and.

[Michael Batnick]

No, but that's not. First of all, that's, that's not 30.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, so my kids in math class were Learning about rounding up recently. If you have 26 and 25, what do you round up to?

[Michael Batnick]

We're not rounding out. This is not a roundup exercise. But also, but also, but, but they did that. They did that when the company was a third of the size.

[Ben Carlson]

So I look the worst day for Nvidia. I looked just at the 2020s for Nvidia was negative 18.5% that in the 2020.

[Michael Batnick]

Because I'm just saying 30 is like an accounting scandal type of fall.

[Ben Carlson]

But it happens to individual stocks all the time. All the time. I mean, I'm gonna put chart kid Matt on this. Like, how often do individual stocks fall 30%?

[Michael Batnick]

Not. It's not all the time, dude. It's rare. I bet you it happens three times a year. I. I'm making that number up, obviously.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, way more than that on a.

[Michael Batnick]

Single day for, for an s and P500 stock or let's just say a mega cap stock. Now, now maybe I'm moving the gold bus, but these are mega cap stocks that we're talking about.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm thinking like Russell 1000. I feel, I bet it's dozens in a year. Fall 30.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, I'm sure. Listen, if you're, if you're, if you're a $7 billion company and you've you overnight, you're till that I'm sure that happens all the time.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, so wait, you want people to pound the table on the bubble thing and say yes or no? Ben Thompson at Certecary, he did this. He says this is a bubble, plain and simple. And I think it's great because I feel like a lot of the people in tech don't want to say that it's a bubble. They want to tiptoe around it. He's saying yes, and he wrote. But he wrote about the benefits of bubbles. And so it's funny, he said we've been like tipped. People have been trying to say this. Remember Mark Cuban? I remember this one in 2015 said, Technology is a bubble. I don't know why that one sticks out to me. I hit my head in cnbc. So people have been saying this forever. But he's saying, no, no, no, this is obvious right now. We, this is a bubble. And he's saying the question is, are the benefits of the bubble going to be worth it? Right. All this money we're pumping in on the other side, do we get this AI infrastructure build out? That's the question.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, and a big part of that is some of the bubbles that lead to good, healthy things for society. Like they're not all. Bubbles aren't bad, I think was the point of the post. But specifically debt fueled bubbles, like what led to the GFC is a, is a catastrophic crisis of epic proportions.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

It's possible that, that we get the bursting of a bubble and so long as it doesn't bring down the financial system with owner is dead and obviously that's a bigger part of the conversation, then maybe we get out of the other side.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, but I mean that's, that's like the good part about this is the banks aren't in really. I mean you could say, well, private credit and. But this is not like a financial crisis level thing. This is, this is. Yeah, stocks could fall a lot, but I don't know. I still don't think that this is like a nuclear level event. If and when this thing blows up.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, I hope not. You know, I was thinking about this like looking back at history because I'm saying like, what would, what would need to happen to prove this was a bubble? And I feel like once you, once you start talking about like losses and fractions, then you know it's bad. So for. Yes, like, like the NASDAQ lost a third of its value. That's a serious, that's a serious decline. I don't care if it takes you back to 2023, like that hurts a third. Imagine your account. Just close your eyes and picture the value of your account falling by a third. That sucks.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, so. So Derek Thompson had a great conversation with a railroad historian, by the way. Ben and I are recording with Derek this afternoon talking about our young people screwed. So I think that'll be out this week. All right. I feel like we never really talk about this because it's not like the most exciting topic, but in terms of the advantages that we have in this country, like, oh, it's our, it's our DNA, it's our go getter attitude. And like, yeah, that is all part of it. But simply this. So this guy's. I forget, I apologize, I forget his name. He said, by the end of the 19th century, you have a regulated infrastructure that moves across the continent that brings a great American advantage into play. And here's the part that I'm talking about. The great American advantage which we have over competing economies is an incredible wealth of resources. We did nothing to create those resources, but we literally have with oil and copper, with agriculture and soil, once the railroads can move these things effectively, we had advantages that nobody else in the World can match just our natural resources.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnick]

Is second to none.

[Ben Carlson]

If you were to build a country from scratch, the U. You would have MO. 90% of it is the US right. We have the coasts on the side to protect us. We have vast resources. All the. We have fresh water. We have all these things that are like natural built in advantages other countries would kill for.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. It's funny, we talk about like our. Our culture as the exceptionalism and obviously it's an offshoot of this, but it's really our. Just the land.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, so getting back to.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait a minute.

[Michael Batnick]

One.

[Ben Carlson]

One big difference between. Because I studied the railroad bubble too, and I wrote about it in one of my books. The biggest difference between that and. Because people have been making this. This comparison is that there was so much fraud going on back then. It was. That was literally a pump and dump scheme. All of those companies were being pumped and dumped. Insider trading. There was no rules back then, so it was all insider trading and dumping stuff off on the public and so obvious. So that. That kind of thing isn't happening as much now. And there was a lot of that happening in the 20s too, because the SEC didn't. Wasn't around yet. So if you want to make historical comparisons, that's important to note that a lot of this stuff was just the wild, wild west back then. And obviously there's stuff going on with SPACs these days that is not completely. Doesn't seem to be above board, even though it is kind of.

[Michael Batnick]

But. But not like this. Not like just outright, outright fraud. So last week, Josh and I were talking to Eric Jackson about how it was the week that the world learned who Sam Altman was. OpenAI has been in the background. All of these announcements sending stock prices soaring. I think it started with Oracle maybe. Was that like the first gigantic holy shit announcement?

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

And he was on Brad Gerstner's podcast. And then the CFO said a few things that. That didn't land well. And everybody's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. She, the CFO made a comment that said like, the government might have to backstop the financing of data centers. And then she immediately went on LinkedIn and said, actually, I'm backtracking that. But when they said that stuff, people pounced. And I say, OpenAI and Sam Altman, they are going to be the next tech villains. People are going. There are going to be a lot of people who completely hate this company. Politicians are going to jump on this because here's the. The narrative so easy to build oh, yeah. Wait, wait. This company is enriching themselves and they're helping people lose jobs? Are you kidding me? Like, they are going to. Sam Alton is going to be a villain to a big group of people.

[Michael Batnick]

Yes, yes. And yeah. So whether that's right or wrong, he's, he's gonna. I can't wait to go public so we could kill our short sellers. And it's like, dude, what are you talking about? Like, huh? So anyway, so this, this historian said to Derek, transformative technologies are built by people who never under promise. They always overestimate the beneficial consequences of what they're doing in the short term and underestimate the costs of what they're doing. He said, second, the people who hype these technologies, the people who control the companies that are seeking to master these technologies, very often do not understand the technologies themselves. They can over promise because literally they know what they want to promise to get financing and to get money and to get profits. All right, so obviously that's happening. Skipping along to the third thing he said, these technologies virtually always become bubbles because they take on this belief that if you're going to change the world, if this is the secret to changing the world, everybody should get in on this. The railroads, the railroads were the American stock market and the American financial market in the late 19th century. That's where the money went. All right, but you know what, you know what's different about this one than that one? When he said like, everybody should get in on it like they did in the late 90s, like they did in the railroads. You can't, it's not everybody can't get in on this. It's too expensive. These data set just cost 20, what, $50 billion. Like, it's not everybody getting in on it. It's the mag seven names. And who would you better trust to handle the future of our capitalist society than these companies in terms of at.

[Ben Carlson]

Least growing profits and cash flows. Right. I don't have a lot of trust in the common sense of our tech leaders. I don't think that they're going to be like looking out for humanity. But if you're a shareholder, then who? You better trust them for sure.

[Michael Batnick]

But, but look who's running Microsoft and, and Meta and Google. Like these are very accomplished people that have steered their companies incredibly.

[Ben Carlson]

Plus, let's be honest, a lot of these people are like psychopath or sociopaths. You've read the book the Wisdom of Psychopaths and how many people? I don't know. I think it's like 5% of all CEOs or something are literal like sociopaths or something like, and I'm saying this in a, in a, I guess a positive and a negative way, like nothing is going to get in their way to stop this, right?

[Michael Batnick]

No, I don't think so. All right, so this next segment is brought to you by pimco. I grabbed this chart from their advisor playbook. You can check them out over there. We'll link to this in the show notes. Obviously there's all sorts of great resources for advisors from one of the world's largest fixed income managers. So check this out. They show today's cutting cycle in historical context and they show where we are today months into the cutting cycle, number of cuts or I'm sorry, the effective, what does that say? The effective Fed fund rate change. And if you compare this to prior episodes, we're nowhere. And so we've done this. We've done what they or we, these companies have built this starting in what was the middle or tail end of a hiking cycle, right. In terms of investor enthusiasm and liquidity. And we haven't even begun to see the impacts of Fed easing and what that might mean to asset prices. Right.

[Ben Carlson]

So looking at, it's kind of interesting that like the 1984 was, it took so long to get down. But yeah. So there's a lot of dry powder here for the Fed to cut further if things should deteriorate. But I actually think that if this thing just stays pretty plateaus, that's probably better news than all of a sudden rates falling off of a cliff. I think that portends much worse news and an overreaction function of the economy's worse than people realize. Right.

[Michael Batnick]

So if Fed funds settle at 3% and let's assume that there's no emergency cuts because the economy is tanking, does that support or not support higher prices?

[Ben Carlson]

Well, look at the, look at the, the two lowest cycles that they ever got is 2007 and 2000. So it's funny, we think that like high rates are going to be here forever now just like low rates are going to be here before. Like you really think 0% rates aren't coming back if we have a recession?

[Michael Batnick]

I don't think so.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't. I, I'm sorry man. I would not take that off the table if we go into recession.

[Michael Batnick]

Zero.

[Ben Carlson]

Here's the thing. So in the next three years I said this to you and Josh the other day. They Trump is already promising two thousand dollar tariff checks, I guess which I.

[Michael Batnick]

Think I think it was, I think it's credits against their people's taxes.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, whatever. It's, I don't know if it's actually gonna happen, maybe just a promise but if we get a recession in the next three years, do you think he's not gonna just shoot bazookas everywhere of money and lower rates?

[Michael Batnick]

And I mean I would, I would hope that Congress has learned their lesson.

[Ben Carlson]

The lesson is if you throw money at a recession it's, it turns around pretty quick.

[Michael Batnick]

And I think yeah, but hopefully the lesson should be no, no, throwing money at the economy kills, kills everything because inflation is worse than recessions. As Joshua over the weekend.

[Ben Carlson]

But I think once you're in a recess. We haven't had a recession in a long time and I think once, I think the overreaction function will be really interesting to see because I just think, listen, whether you agree with this or not, we've kind of figured out rece like there's going to be ton of unintended consequences. But you really think he's just going to let the economy slow and not throw a bunch of money at it?

[Michael Batnick]

Well, I, I, I mean listen, so.

[Ben Carlson]

I think any, this is my baseline. You wanted me to stop grand hedging. Any recession we get will be very short lived because they're going to throw everything they can at it.

[Michael Batnick]

Whoever is in office is incentivized obviously to do whatever they can to mute the damages caused by recessions. And are these people, is this economy, is the society better equipped to do that than we were 100 years ago? Yeah, obviously. So yeah, the market is rigged. Yes, in a good way, thank God.

[Ben Carlson]

And there are going to be ton of unintended consequences because of this. But you have to live in the reality that this is probably the world we live in now where if a recession happens there's going to be a boatload of money thrown at it.

[Michael Batnick]

There always is act accordingly recently.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, this is interesting from the Ft capex spending is on course outpace cash returns to shareholders now. So they show buybacks, dividends and then net operating cash flow and the CAPEX number is close to buybacks and dividends now which is pretty wild and I guess it's always been closer than you think.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, this, I would like to see the spread of this chart because it's so what.

[Ben Carlson]

Right, but so this is interesting. So you mentioned earnings. US companies are reporting the strongest earnings growth since 2021. So companies are still making plenty of money. Right? Profits can increase the chart kid. Matt had this this chart, this is really.

[Michael Batnick]

It is, it is. But this is also part of the thing. Like not to, not to rehash what we just spoke about for the first 20 minutes of the show, but I would, I think it's fair to say that corporations are out or out thriving, for lack of a better word, consumers.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, of course.

[Michael Batnick]

Corporations are doing better than consumers.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, corporations have weathered this, this decade better than anyone. Yeah, right.

[Michael Batnick]

And will continue to do so at the consumer's expense if necessary.

[Ben Carlson]

So imagine not wanting to take part in the stock market. This is why 60, whatever percent of 62% of households are in the stock market because good luck fighting these corporations that all they do is want to make profits. So chart kid Matt, who has his own blog now called chartkidmat.com looked at the returns of tech stocks based on higher or lower capex spending. And this is pretty wild. I don't know, I don't know. I'm sure there's some where you could poke holes in this, but basically the higher capex spend, the higher returns, the lower your capex spend and the spread is huge.

[Michael Batnick]

It's like there's no holes to poke. This, these are, this is merely the data. I think it's what, what's interesting about this data is that we spoke about Kai's, about Kai's post from a couple of weeks ago who looked at historically high capex companies do not deliver great returns for investors. Now that is historically true and I'm not saying that it won't hold true for the next five years. Right? Like maybe, maybe higher capex leads to low returns going forward. I wouldn't bet against that.

[Ben Carlson]

This is another, this is another one that this time is different.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, just for 2025 it's different. I'm not saying that these companies, now that they are ramping up their spending are going to continue to outperform, but in 2025, I mean we know this obviously this is very. No shit, but it's very cool that Matt was able to show this. So the companies in the Quintile five that are spending the most, it's Intel, Oracle, First Solar. Huh? Okay. Aamai, Microsoft, CrowdStrike, companies like that.

[Ben Carlson]

I forgot Dell is a public company again. That's in there too.

[Michael Batnick]

And on the bottom end, all the way on the other side are a bunch of companies that frankly, I don't even know who these companies are.

[Ben Carlson]

Adobe's in there.

[Michael Batnick]

I know. F5 is that Intuit, Adobe, Palantir. Interesting. Okay, Fico, whatever. Doesn't matter. The point is. We know what the point is. It's enough already. We know.

[Ben Carlson]

And if you haven't, if you're an advisor and you haven't checked out exhibit A. Exhibit A for advice dot com. Matt's doing wonderful things there. Chart blast. Charts of the week. Check it out.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, you're damn right he is. Every week. It's not just, it's not just a library of stale charts that update every day. Every week we are doing a chart of the week that is obviously topical for you to share with your, with your clients and prospects and all that good stuff. So check us out there. You have a free seven day trial, so check it out. Okay. S tax, new monthly report.

[Ben Carlson]

Can't call it stacks, can you?

[Michael Batnick]

I just, I won't do it. All right. This was surprising. From an age perspective. The most aggressively positioned investors tracked by Schwab during October belong to Gen X. The least aggressive was Gen Z.

[Ben Carlson]

That surprising me, huh? It does show that you can. Because Gen X, when they were coming up and they're, they were just coming up, they. Gen X lived in their formative years in the lost decade. Right? I've heard of a lot that's the, that's the also the lost generation. But I heard from a lot of people say, I remember one person in particular told me I started my job in 1999. By 2011, every single dollar I put my 401k, it was, it was worth the same as I put in. So I put $100,000 in. My account value was $100,000 I saved for 12 years. And I went nowhere. And all I told him was just wait because now all of those purchases over 12 years and went nowhere. I'm sure they're, they're. So if they stayed in and they figured it out, they did wonderfully. That's, as a young person, that's one of the better things that could happen to you.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, Yeah. I mean, a lost decade comes with obviously all sorts of like, you don't get lost decades in good times. Right?

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

So on the one hand, 30s, 2000s, you should pray for lower prices. But obviously it comes with all sorts of gnarly side effects. So maybe, maybe not. All right. Young people are twice as likely to be unemployed. There's a lot of this talk coming on. Right. Okay, so chart kid made me a chart showing the unemployment rate for young workers. So this is the group of. That's 22 to 27. Then he compared it with all workers and the spread right now is 3.4%. Guess what the average is since 1990? 3.8%. It's lower than normal. And from 2009 to 2014, when it was really hard to get a job for young people, the average spread between the two groups was 5.4%. So I'm not saying that young people have never had it better, but this idea that they're like, that it's unfair now and that they're screwed, like, give me a break.

[Ben Carlson]

Haven't. Young. That's. That's my point. Haven't young people always had it hard? Has there ever been a time where it's been easy to be a young person?

[Michael Batnick]

Young? Of course. Of course. All right, this is great. This is. This made me so happy, this narrative nonsense. So all of these fast, casual companies, they're all getting killed. Kava, Sweetgreen, Chipotle, they're all. Their stocks are getting killed. Which, by the way, these were expensive stocks. So that's part of the story. And then the growth has slowed because a lot of things, people aren't in the office as much, but people are like, I'm just not eating this anymore. It's just. It's too expensive. So. All right, Ben, you're love this. Okay, so they. So Chipotle and Cava both, in the opening of their call, mentioned the strongest of young people in their. In their pre packaged written response. Okay, so an analyst said, Brett, you mentioned younger guests in the prepared comments, and I don't know if that was a broader statement of the industry, but. Or if you're seeing something in particular with young cohorts. So, Ben, listen to this answer. This is. This made me so happy reading this. Yes, for us, we're a bit idiosyncratic and that our costs accelerated in the back half of last year when many industry comps were decelerating. Oh, really? So maybe there's actual business stuff specific to you guys that's driving your results. All right, that's part one. Here's part two. So we're lapping tougher hurdles when most are having easier comps. So we don't want to overstate the challenges of the consumer. Then why did you lead with that in your prepared remarks? It's so easy to latch onto these narratives and blame that when really there are idiosyncratic things going on in your business.

[Ben Carlson]

So here I have a theory. So I looked at this. So Kava is down. Let's. Let's do a fraction. Kava is down two thirds, down 67%. DoorDash is down almost 30%. Chipotle is down 55%, Cheesecake Factory is down 30% and Sweetgreen is down 87%. So these restaurant stocks are getting killed. Is it just as simple as. And I know like you said, there's. Each of them has their own thing going on. Did they just raise their prices too much? Did people go, why would I do a fast casual when I can go to the brewery down the street and get a beer and a burger and it costs almost the same thing? Like, why would I pay for. I think they just raised their prices too much. Is it that simple?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, that's what happened to Starbucks. It's the same thing at McDonald's.

[Ben Carlson]

Right?

[Michael Batnick]

People, people just, people just got fed up. It's too much. Then they change their habits.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, exactly. All right, let's talk about 50 year mortgages real quick. The housing guy, what's his name, Bill Pulte, said, we're working on a 50 year mortgage. It's a game changer. People on social media went nuts about this thing. I think pretty much everyone hates it. I tell you what, I don't really hate it as much as most people.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, I was about to say, tell me where the hate comes from.

[Ben Carlson]

I want to understand because you, it, it only lowers your payment a little and you basically don't build any equity. Like it's almost impossible. I say the positive is, it is like, listen, I just want to, I want to fight inflation and I want to have my payment be set. So I take out a 50 year mortgage. I'm going to move in 12 years anyway. 10 years, 8 years, whatever it is. I'm just, I'm not going to build any equity. But I have, I have it as an inflation hedge. So from that perspective, I kind of think like, oh, this makes sense. I just think.

[Michael Batnick]

Do people think that, do people hate it because they think that that's going to only juice prices even more?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, people think, well, that means housing prices will just adjust higher. Which I don't necessarily.

[Michael Batnick]

Hang on.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't necessarily agree with that for sure.

[Michael Batnick]

I think that the majority of home buyers in a normalized interest rate environment. Now, home prices today are ridiculous. But I'm just saying, all else equal, most people would not choose the 50 year mortgage because guess what, you're not, to your point, you're not building any equity. It's all interest. So I wouldn't choose a 50 year. I don't think most people would. But for people that are struggling to get into a home, yeah, the 50 year. I don't think it's the worst option.

[Ben Carlson]

In the world, I think. But if we're going to be, if we're throwing ideas against the wall here, why don't we just give everyone under 40 if they haven't gotten one yet, a one time 3% mortgage if they miss a boat in 2020. Now listen, with that juice prices probably, but it's like if we're throwing ideas against the wall and obviously the, the obvious one is, well, why don't we just build more housing? Like that's, that's the simple like solution. But obviously for whatever reason it's too hard to do or we don't want to do it. So we're just going to throw ideas against the wall.

[Michael Batnick]

I am very much for, in favor of relief, homebuyer relief for young people. I think this is one of the, this is probably the singular biggest issue in our economy right now.

[Ben Carlson]

I am too. I'm fine. People say it's not fair. I don't. So, so isn't fair.

[Michael Batnick]

So what? So I don't know what the solution is. I don't know what the unintended consequences are. I'm not like a housing policy wonk, but we got to do something.

[Ben Carlson]

Well, listen to this. The share of, this is from NAR. The share of first time homebuyers dropped to a record low of 21% while the typical age of first time homebuyers climbed to an all time high of 40 years. And this is the biggest cohort right now. Remember we said last week 33 to 37 is the biggest age group in the country right now. Yeah. This is us trying to have like some sympathy here. I agree. Like some people are gonna say, why do they. I never got help when I came up. So what, you didn't deal with housing prices that rose 50% and mortgage rates that doubled either?

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, no, I'm, I'm for this. I forgot to mention this. Last week Matt Levine wrote about Brian Armstrong, who is the CEO of Coinbase, by the way.

[Ben Carlson]

I tried, I tried to watch the new Superman and I couldn't do it. Brian Armstrong will make a great less Lex Luthor.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, the new Superman was okay. It was watchable. Way better than Fantastic Four.

[Ben Carlson]

My kids actually liked Fantastic Four. They, they got into it, but yeah. Do they have good taste in movies? No.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, kids like everything.

[Ben Carlson]

It's true. I, I just, I made it 10 minutes into Superman. I turned it off. I just, I don't care. The superhero stuff, I just, I just don't care about all Right, but, but.

[Michael Batnick]

But wait, hold on. You just said it. That's a you thing that you can't watch.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, but a lot of people don't care about superhero movies anymore. Like, oh, you're gonna destroy the world and this big bad being is gonna come and.

[Michael Batnick]

But you were. But you. But you were never a Marvel guy.

[Ben Carlson]

No, I like it.

[Michael Batnick]

Did you ever see, like, Avengers Endgame?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I watched it. It was okay. I mean, but when the guy snapped his fingers and everyone died, I knew the next movie was just going to be them turning.

[Michael Batnick]

You know what movie you want to see? You want to see Thanos in middle school, like, awkwardly getting into puberty and realizing that, like, he actually does have something to offer to the world. Like, that's.

[Ben Carlson]

I would like there to be some actual stakes. There's no stakes in these movies. Like, anything that happens can be reversed. And so, like, this person died. Now let's just snap our fingers and come back to life. Like, there's no stakes in those movies. So, like, why should I care what happens?

[Michael Batnick]

Fair enough. Okay, so, Matt Levine, the main point I want to make here is that this is also dumb and I hate it. Kalshee.

[Ben Carlson]

Talking about what?

[Michael Batnick]

I'm about to read it. Kalshi, a commodities futures exchange registered with a US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, offers contracts on various unconventional commodities like election outcomes and football games. Last month you could buy futures contracts on commodities like a Coinbase Global Inc. Representative saying the words prediction market or Bitcoin or Web3 on its third earnings. Third quarter earnings call. Why? I don't know. To hedge your risk that Coinbase wouldn't say those words to help people understand and price the future states of the world in which Coinbase did or didn't say those words because you were bored and like to gamble? Probably. All right, so the earnings call happened at 5:30pm on Thursday. And here is the transcript that Brian Armstrong said at the end of the call. Did you hear this, Ben?

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, I know what you're talking about now.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

Here's a quote from Brian Armstrong. I hope we answered your question on that. I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call. And I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain staking and web3 to make sure we get those in before the end of the call. End quote. Dude. Bro. And dude. Come on.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, not great. I mean, does it. Is anyone really being harmed by this or helped? I don't Know, but it's, why do we, why is this thing.

[Michael Batnick]

But just why, like, just who does this help?

[Ben Carlson]

I agree.

[Michael Batnick]

Aren't you trying to be the adult in the room and push the crypto industry forward? And you're like, literally doing this.

[Ben Carlson]

It's like, this is the lol. Nothing matters. Right?

[Michael Batnick]

Right. Yeah. It's just, Come on. Do we need to make people more cynical?

[Ben Carlson]

All right. I'm starting to backtrack a little on the housing market. Like, I thought I was almost positive that during the next recession we're going to get like a housing boom like the rest. The housing market goes into recession first, comes out of it first. Maybe that still happens, but I don't know if the animal spirits are going to be harmed here. So. This is from Wall Street Journal. A bunch of people sent us this. Builders are offering mortgage rate discounts. Home buyers aren't biting. Okay. America's biggest builders are struggling to sell homes even when they offer buyers a 4% mortgage. Their experience suggests that rate cuts alone won't be enough to boost weak sales in a wider housing market. So you can see the number of completed unsold homes is rising very fast. Dr. Horton, which builds roughly one in every seven homes in the US and has its own financing arm, is offering 3.99% mortgages to buyers. That's a pretty darn good deal.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, it is.

[Ben Carlson]

The company has also knocked off 3% of its average selling price in the past 12 months. And it's not working. It's not helping.

[Michael Batnick]

Somebody emailed us and they were like, guys, it's not just the price of the home with the down payment and of course the mortgage, which is ridiculous. It's also like insurance and all of the other costs. It's everything. So it's not just the mortgage rate.

[Ben Carlson]

So does this mean that housing prices have to fall to, like, create a better equilibrium? Are we just going to have no housing activity?

[Michael Batnick]

But, but they're not falling now.

[Ben Carlson]

They're, they're in some places, Texas and Florida. They're falling.

[Michael Batnick]

True, true. I, I, I could be wrong. I still do believe that at some point there is a rate. I don't know where the line is at which it's going to be like the spark that lights the fire. But maybe not. Maybe, maybe home prices need to come down.

[Ben Carlson]

Here's the thing. I, if I'm in the market, though, I'm, I'm buying a new house over an existing home. Buying a new house is, is such a great deal because, like, you're, you're just all the maintenance for, for like the first 10 years, you're washing your hands of it. So there's. If they were saying, listen, part of the problem with new homes is that if they're not in very desirable areas sometimes because there's no place to build them in the, in the best area. So sometimes you have to like go further away to get a new home.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, Ben, can I, can I, can we do an ask the compound style question? I'll be Duncan.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, let's do it.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay. My wife and I are in our early 50s, two teenage kids. My wife is a part time teacher, planning to retire in four to five years. I made a career switch two years ago to pursue my passion, knowing that I would never. Knowing that I would be bringing home significantly less income in the short term and potentially not recovering the difference. Okay. Our household income prior to my career switch was 180K. You taking notes? We do not have a mortgage on our primary residence. $1.3 million. We have three rental properties valued at a combined $2.2 million.

[Ben Carlson]

Nice not to brag here.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, we have, we have retirement accounts combined total estimated at $2.3 million and a brokerage account, cash assets combined at 1.5. All right, so these people are financially good.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

Like they, they are in a very healthy, very healthy spot. Making their career jump created a short shortfall between our expenses and our income. Yes. We could cover the difference by tapping into our cash or pulling back some of my wife's pre tax allocation to retirement account. Two years ago we decided to pay off the debt to pay off the only debt we had, which was a 2.625% mortgage. Oh. On one rental property with 10 years remaining on the loan and a loan balance of $130,000. The monthly mortgage payment was $1,200. Prying prior to paying off the mortgage, we were Net positive about $6,000 per year on this property. Okay. I mean, this is, this is all the right things. Do I even need to read the rest? Like, do you still have any issue with this, Ben?

[Ben Carlson]

Well, he says in my mind, we took $130,000 and are getting an 11% return for the next 10 years. Maybe this is distorting thinking, but at the end of the day, we're still getting $14,400 more in income for the next 10 years. No. Love to hear your take, especially Ben. I feel like people twist their, their, their brains and pretzels for this stuff. So they took, they have a shortfall in income. They need the income. Right. They decided, well, if we pay off the mortgage early, then we'll have the lower monthly payment. So then that can be a form of income. What if you just kept that $130,000?

[Michael Batnick]

But people like the Acre. I know, I know, I know.

[Ben Carlson]

Use. Keep the cash. The cash if you have. Especially if a shortfall in income, you're. You're trading that cash now for future monthly payments that aren't going to happen way off into the future. Your time value of money says you're better off keeping that $130,000 just in cash.

[Michael Batnick]

You're right. And the flexibility of it all. But I think. I think what we keep learning over and over and over and is that the psychological component of the money on a monthly basis matters so much more than what's sitting in the bank. In the bank. The psychological, goodbye, debt.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. And I've already come. I know that I'm never changing anyone's mind about this, but he twisted his brain into a pretzel here. He could have just now.

[Michael Batnick]

Also, I think that I would be more like emphatic and like taking the person by the shoulders and shaking them like in Billy Madison or the cheeks. I guess in that case, if you are, if you, if, if you are not in this person's position where they.

[Ben Carlson]

Have the portfolio, they're gonna be fine either way.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. But if you're talking about somebody who's like, listen, who's like, I have, I have. I have $30,000 in savings. And it's like, no, no, no, you are making the wrong decision and it's going to impact your life.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

Obviously that's not this.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay, I want to talk about real quick about some of the stuff we saw in Vegas.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

And the juxtaposition between what we're hearing from Robin Hood. So Vlad said prediction markets are really on fire. It's hard to believe we launched this year, just about a year ago, and we've doubled volume every quarter since then. That's crazy. People really love gambling that much. I mean, predicting that much.

[Ben Carlson]

I know. And is it just so you can say you were right? I know. The money is part of it, but here's what I told you, Rob. Like walking around Vegas and seeing all the debauchery there. Robinhood should have a bucket shop in Vegas. You should be able to go in there and trade penny stocks on like 50 times margin. And like, there should be a Robin Hood bucket shop in Vegas. We were walking and I'm, I'm Almost. I'm almost like, if we're gonna do this, let's just do it. Everyone's gonna be degenerate. But you and I were walking around the MGM grand and they had this. This enclosed space with all these people. And they were. It was these people talking to cameras and they were. They were dealing. And they were dealing card games and they were doing roulette and they were doing. I don't know, all these other games.

[Michael Batnick]

And there's a glass box.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. In the glass box talk. It was. There was 12 games going on and it was people on the Internet playing these games live. So you. You're on a camera, and the dealer's on a camera and you're playing against them.

[Michael Batnick]

No offense, but I would have loved to see who's on the other side of the camera.

[Ben Carlson]

So that's just. That's massive. See, because one of the. That's just such a degenerate move. Because one of the great things about going to the casino is that you get to the smell of the place. You get all the noises around you when you're playing blackjack. It's not. You're not just there to play the cards and win the money or lose the money. You're there to be with other people. And you're just there to experience. Yes. That if you have a. If you have a good blackjack table and you're with your friends and people are yelling. And I love it when you have a 16 and you hit and you get a five and everyone goes, good hit, good hit. And if you. If you. You know, you tap the car, that tap the table because someone got an A's for good luck. And, like, that's the part. It's the camaraderie of it. It's not just the straight cards. And we're. Anyway, I do have one thing I wanted to go over. I always do this for people you see in an airplane, people you see at a resort. I have people you see at Vegas. And a lot of this is colored by what we saw. But. So there's always the one old guy at the blackjack table complaining. We had this guy. Right? Like, I'm playing it right. I can't believe it. When I played a little bit after you left and I had a guy, he was. He literally had the card, you know, the card that says when you should hit, when you should stay, when. When you should split. And he's falling into a tee, so he's playing the right way. And he keeps losing. And he. He's Getting madder and matter. And he points to me, he goes, why is he winning? And I'm losing to the dealer. Like, sorry, sometimes it's just random. There's the one guy who drops 8 to $10,000 on a, on a card table and doesn't blink. Just playing massive hands. Money's gone. Just.

[Michael Batnick]

It just get. Just gets up and leave.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. There's always a group of dudes who are inappropriately drunk at like weird times, right? We saw like five dudes walking through on our way to dinner and they had a. They had a case of Pabst Blue Ribbon on them and they were annihilated. And it was like 4 in the afternoon.

[Michael Batnick]

The beer, the beers fell out of the case.

[Ben Carlson]

Beers are falling out. There's always one lady, like a group of ladies there for a bachelorette party or something who keeps shouting about getting a drink, like, I need a drink. You know, there's that lady. And then of course, there's just the zombies at a slot machine, right? Like their eyes look like they're like. And then, let's see people playing craps at 9am That's a person. And then I love the people. When you're leaving for a flight at like 7am and there's people literally coming home to the hotel at 7am at the same time as you. I'm sure there's way more than that, but Vegas is a great people watching place. Here's one thing I didn't know. You can literally people. How many times do they ask us for a massage at the table? If you're that sore from gambling and you need a massage while you're playing, you might have a problem. I don't know. Anyway, but for us, everyone keeps saying Vegas is a trouble. Vegas was bumping when we were there.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, yeah, that's what I want to say. You look at a chart of Caesars and it looks like the stock's going to zero. And Caesars is the most exposed to Vegas compared to like Wynn or MGM or Las Vegas Sands. And it's easy to conclude that the consumer is dying. It's like, wait a minute. No, they're not. They just aren't going to Vegas as much as they used to for a various host of reasons. It's expensive as shit.

[Ben Carlson]

It's really expensive there.

[Michael Batnick]

It's really expensive. I got. I got a star. A Grande Coffee for $9. It's just like, come on, you're just robbing me. But did it feel like a recession there?

[Ben Carlson]

No, it was. I mean, people Were dropping money left and right.

[Michael Batnick]

Did it feel like Caesars is in an 80 drawdown?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, we were. And we asked the dealers, like, what's going on? Is it busy? They said, yeah, right now there's a lot of stuff going on. I don't know, maybe it's just because there was a big conference week or what, but I was surprised. I thought it was going to be a ghostland.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah. So. So I'm not, I'm not here to say that Vegas is killing it, but this idea that like nobody's there anymore, just not true. All right, great stuff, Ben. On the Vegas just. I wanted to mention Robinhood real quick. Their net deposits in the fourth quarter or in the third quarter were an all time record, up 29%. $20.4 billion.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm sure they have a ton of people that are just auto contributions in. Right. And every time they get a new client, that's what happens. A new customer.

[Michael Batnick]

Here's a, here's a face blowing chart. Look at how, look at their, their margin revenue. $153 million. And the next structure is their margin book. Not surprisingly, $14 billion. An all time record there.

[Ben Carlson]

Wow.

[Michael Batnick]

Robin. Robin is killing it. They are doing. They are on fire.

[Ben Carlson]

They need to do the bucket shop thing. People would love fire, borrow more money from them. All right, good news. My auto insurance went down for the first time in a long time. They didn't have to hang.

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, it's great. Great.

[Ben Carlson]

I didn't have to like go to and that. Not a lot. A little. But the Wall Street Journal had a, had a story saying that auto car insurers are under pressure to cut rates. They're basically saying there's been more competition and people are shopping around more. So that's causing these auto insurers to lower the rates. So the, the, it's finally the inflation on this stuff that spiked and it was massive. We talk about this being like a crisis level event. It's reversed. So that's good.

[Michael Batnick]

That's great.

[Ben Carlson]

Good news.

[Michael Batnick]

That's great. Ben. I, I'm not a, I'm a. I'm new to the vest. The vest game. I know you've been a vest guy for a long time.

[Ben Carlson]

That's kind of surprising you going to Manhattan all the time.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, I'm new to the vest game and I don't like fest, guys. Sorry. I mean I like, I have a lot of friends that wear vest and I like them. But just the idea of vestman. I don't like vestman.

[Ben Carlson]

Well, if there's if there's four guys walking and they all have khaki pants on and a blue shirt and a vest. You like. You judge those guys.

[Michael Batnick]

So there was two vest men on the flight as we landed. They got off. They're standing up.

[Ben Carlson]

Vests are great for weighing on planes, though. I am in pockets keeps you kind of warm.

[Michael Batnick]

I've got a positive coming up. So they. The. So vest guy number one goes, so how was the conference for you? You come back next week? No, I don't cover retail anymore. I only cover this sector. So they're, you know, the rich guys. You going to. Where are you going tonight? You go to Greenwich or Manhattan. I'm like, dude, you don't just say that out loud.

[Ben Carlson]

So they're stereotypical vest guys.

[Michael Batnick]

Stereotypical vest guys. All right, But I'm a vest guy now for various reasons. But here's another. Here's a great reason. I don't know if you could tell. Probably can't. Maybe you can. I've put on quite a bit of weight recently. I'm afraid to look at the scale. My. My eating, which was on track, has fallen off an absolute cliff. It's a nightmare. So now you could wear a vest over a T shirt and hide your belly. So that's what I'm doing these days. I wear.

[Ben Carlson]

Because my coffee vest really hides. Can hide a lot.

[Michael Batnick]

My stomach is not looking good at all. Neither is my upper chest area. So the vest, the vest hides, hides the.

[Ben Carlson]

What happened to your personal trainer?

[Michael Batnick]

Oh, I stopped at year ago. I don't have time for that.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. Yeah, you do. You got it.

[Michael Batnick]

You.

[Ben Carlson]

You can find time to work out. All right.

[Michael Batnick]

No, I can. I just don't have time. I don't have time.

[Ben Carlson]

For a survey of the week from Washington Post, a weekly trainer.

[Michael Batnick]

It's too much.

[Ben Carlson]

Three in four Americans want to reach their 80th birthday, but less than 30% want to live to 100. The typical American lives to 78. The ideal age on average, according to this Pew survey, is 91. So what do you think is the best age to die? Very morbid question.

[Michael Batnick]

80, 84.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, so my dad talks about this a lot. My dad is approaching 80. He's always said, like, I don't want to live past my, like, 80s. I don't want to. I don't want to be seen people that, like, just fall off a cliff and deteriorate. He always says, I don't want to get past that point. He said this multiple times.

[Michael Batnick]

Yeah, but. But your dad's in good shape. Would he if he 90? If he could live to 90 and not be a corpse, I'm sure he would do it.

[Ben Carlson]

It is kind of crazy. My dad is almost 80, and you'd look at him, you probably think he's in his 60s. He, like, tans immediately. Like, my.

[Michael Batnick]

My step. My. My stepfather is 85, and the guy's a Hulk. You would never know.

[Ben Carlson]

My. My grandfather died at 76, and he looked like he was 110 because he smoked his whole life and lived a hard, hard Life. I think 85 is a perfect age. What do you think? Like, you don't say, like, oh, they died at 85. Like, they had so much more life to live. I think 85 is the perfect age to die. Yeah, it's great age because I feel like in the 90s, like, you're having people take care of you. Yeah, right.

[Michael Batnick]

Yep.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, let's do some recommendations. I watched Pluribus on Apple tv. A bunch of people were talking about this. It's a new show from Vince Gilligan, the guy who did Breaking Bad. Okay. Did you watch any of this?

[Michael Batnick]

No. I'm very excited, though.

[Ben Carlson]

I think it's one of the best pilot episodes I've seen in the last 20 years.

[Michael Batnick]

Ooh. What? I mean, thanks for. Thanks for raising my expectations.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't want to raise them too much, but it's just one of those shows that.

[Michael Batnick]

One of the best pilot episodes in the last 20 years.

[Ben Carlson]

Here's the thing. I'm worried that the idea of the show is, like, I don't know where they go from here. Like, the. The. It felt like a blockbuster movie, but, like, the show starts and it goes, and you're like, oh, oh, oh, okay, we're. Oh, but you're.

[Michael Batnick]

But you're in good hands. It's why no need to be worried.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm a little concerned that the show is going to peak in the very first episode. And the second episode I watched, it was good, too. But it's the. It's just the idea of what happens is kind of like mind bending. And so that's all I'm going to say. It was like, listen, Lost is probably the best of this century. Lost is probably the best pilot episode I've ever seen. Homeland's probably up there. I'm trying to think of what else.

[Michael Batnick]

But, oh, I remember watching Homeland in my bed I grew up in. That was a great pilot.

[Ben Carlson]

Just in terms of, like, what could happen with this show. Like, it, like, whoa, this is mind bending. Very Good. You said you watched the Materialists on their flight, so my wife and I watched it because it was on hbo.

[Michael Batnick]

What did you think?

[Ben Carlson]

So it's not a rom com. It's just a rom. And I thought, man, this movie feels familiar. It's the same woman who wrote and directed Past Lives, which I loved. I think that was one of the best. That was a very good movie. Materialist, I thought was just okay. Like we're talking like a 6.2. It was. I thought the ending was like completely obvious and telegraphed and not original. And I had a hard time buying Chris Evans as like this down on his luck, guy who lives with roommates.

[Michael Batnick]

It made no sense. So I thought that Materialist was. You nailed it. It's a good airplane movie. Was an airplane movie. It's a movie that you watch on an airplane that you wouldn't enjoy. That you enjoy on the airplane, that you wouldn't enjoy on your couch. So I, I, I had an okay time watching Materialist, but pop. Pedro Pascal, horrific. And Chris Evans maybe even worse. So the acting was terrible.

[Ben Carlson]

I thought the first half of the movie was kind of intriguing.

[Michael Batnick]

But yeah, the first third was great and then it was miscast.

[Ben Carlson]

Spoiler alert. She's not going to end up with a rich private equity guy. Come on. Who has a $12 million apartment in Manhattan. That's not realistic. Airplane. Okay, so it was, it was okay.

[Michael Batnick]

I have a plug. I plugged Tommy John undershirts. I'm gonna plug this. We don't have a, we don't have a TV in my kitchen. So we got the new Amazon Echo show, which is like a 15 inch, I think it's like a 15 inch screen. And they even have like. So you have all the apps in it so the kids could watch Netflix Prime, Disney, whatever. They even have like an Amazon channel guide, which I just discovered yesterday. Pretty interesting. But it's perfect. It's perfect for the tv. It swings around. It's great.

[Ben Carlson]

And you can use it for other stuff too.

[Michael Batnick]

It's an Alexa.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

It's an Alexa that also is a tv.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, interesting. Okay. I like that.

[Michael Batnick]

It's great. It's really great. Okay. All right. I, I have, I, you know, you ever, you ever notice something about yourself? Only after somebody points it out. So I was telling one of our guys, Kevin here, about a movie that I was watching. Kobe woke me up early. I was up and I was downstairs at 6:15, and I fired up a movie called Sovereign with Nick Offerman, which is not a movie worth Watching. But Kevin's like, you really watch a lot of movies in the morning, don't you? And I said, yeah, you know what? I have really strange movie watching habits because I rarely watch a movie in one sitting. Which is maybe part of the reason why I really love watching movies in the airplane or in the theater. But almost all of my movies, I'm watching, like 20 minute chunks an hour, chunk of 15 minutes.

[Ben Carlson]

I can't watch a movie in the morning. I'm not a morning person. I can't. Like, my brain's not ready to dig in yet.

[Michael Batnick]

So, yeah, that's me. I. I said it. All right. Guillermo del Toro. I have very mixed feelings on this guy. So he did the new Frankenstein movie. And it's funny, I always thought that I hated Guillermo del Toro because he did a lot of stuff that I don't love. Like, I didn't love Pan's Labyrinth. I know why people like it. Shape of Water got panned. I never saw it just looked weird.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, that was awful. I never saw he did that.

[Michael Batnick]

I don't know anything about Hellboy. It might be good, but it just turns me off.

[Ben Carlson]

I actually watched Hellboy. It was okay.

[Michael Batnick]

Okay. And then there was a. There was a TV series on FX that he made. I think it was about vampires that I just didn't really like. But then he did make some stuff that I do. Like, I didn't realize that he made Mimic. Do you remember that movie in 1997? Yeah, that was. That was good stuff. Nightmare Alley, I liked. There was one other thing that he did that I like. So maybe I don't hate him as much as I do. So, anyway, the point is this. I went into Frankenstein with zero expectations. I'm not a big Frankenstein guy. Right. Like, it's not a monster that I particularly care for. Oscar Isaac is Victor Frankenstein.

[Ben Carlson]

What monsters do you care for?

[Michael Batnick]

Aliens.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

Big aliens guy. Although, like, I would put, like, the monster villain, like Freddy Krueger. I know he's not a monster, per se.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, so would I like Frankenstein or not?

[Michael Batnick]

Maybe. Well, it's not very. It's not very good, but it's. It's also way too long. I think I fell asleep a few times. This took me like, four different times to watch it.

[Ben Carlson]

You're not selling it very good. It's not very good. And it's too long.

[Michael Batnick]

I watch it in the hotel.

[Ben Carlson]

Other than that, how was the show, Mrs. Lincoln?

[Michael Batnick]

No. Yeah, exactly. No, but it was okay. There was some good stuff, some bad stuff, some silly stuff. Made no sense. But the point is this. It was. It was watchable and forgettable, so you could skip it, Ben. You could skip it. All right, lastly, I know we're going long here. Sorry. Duncan and team, two, pretty good airplane movies. Number one is Americana. You ever hear of this one? Okay, so Americana movie is with Sydney Sweeney. Made it. Maybe you've heard of her. And it's a new movie. It's 2023. Not that new.

[Ben Carlson]

You know, it's kind of funny that she's just a bigger hit. Like her, no one ever sees her movies or hears of them. Like, her boxing movie this weekend totally bombed. But she's still this massive star.

[Michael Batnick]

Well, nobody wants to see her box. No offense. The movie with Glenn Powell was a smash.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I like that one.

[Michael Batnick]

All right, Paul. Walter Hauser. You like that guy?

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah. Big dude. Yeah.

[Michael Batnick]

So this is like a western crime, Western thriller. Good. Good airplane movie.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

And then. Oh, High O comma high was a fun little. Yeah. Google this, Ben. Tell me what you think. Oh, comma high. Is it the best movie? No, but it's a good airplane movie. Oh, you love this guy.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, this guy?

[Michael Batnick]

This guy. Logan Lerman was in the Perks of Being a Wallflower.

[Ben Carlson]

I like that movie. Okay, say no more.

[Michael Batnick]

So Isaac and Iris's first ever romantic getaway hits a block when Isaac casually confesses to not wanting a relationship. To what lengths will a desperately single Iris go to convince him?

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, I'm in. It's a rom com, huh?

[Michael Batnick]

It's. Yeah, it's good. It's fun.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnick]

It's okay. It's an airplane movie. All right, thank you, everybody, for listening. Thank you, Duncan and team, for. For editing a long show Animal spirits@the compoundnews.com. we love hearing from you guys. Please take the survey. Would really help us out. And we'll see you.

[Ben Carlson]

Check out. Check out Talking Wealth. This week I'm talking to Colin Roche about how he, like, transitioned from writing about macroeconomics to running his own firm and then starting his own line of ETFs. Good stuff. SA.