Animal Spirits Podcast – Episode 438

"Is a 50 Year Mortgage a Good Idea?"
November 12, 2025
Hosts: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson

Episode Overview

This episode of Animal Spirits returns to the big questions swirling around investing, financial markets, and the consumer economy—with a spirited focus on narratives, generational wealth data, the so-called "K-shaped" recovery, and the recent media buzz about 50-year mortgages. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson balance data-driven optimism with a critical look at widely held perceptions, including inequality, Gen Z finances, and the "bubble or not" debate around big tech and AI.

Key Themes & Discussion Points

1. Market Narratives, Predictions, and the Demand for Certainty

• Nuance vs. Predictions:
  • Michael notes the frustration some listeners have with their balanced, nuanced takes:

    “When you're consuming content, you want to... point to somebody and say, I'm so glad I listened to that guy because he, like, got me there. Or that asshole. I can't believe... Like, so people need a scapegoat or somebody to, like, root for.” (01:16)

  • Michael finally makes a bold call:

    “I think this AI trend takes the S&P 500 to 10,000... There will be corrections. I do expect a 20% pullback before we get there... if I'm wrong, I'm sorry.” (01:47)

  • Ben acknowledges the rarity and pitfalls of extreme predictions:

    “Most people need a Grand Rapids hedge. I feel like it's rare that you should say always and never in the markets... I would lean more towards this thing is going to get way stupider and insane...” (02:43)

2. Bubble Talk: Are We in One?

• They discuss big tech valuations, bubble accusations, and how public perception lags fundamentals.
• Michael and Ben trade jabs over the origin of Ben’s “Is this a bubble for ants?” meme (03:38).
• Ben reframes the “guilty until proven innocent” mentality, suggesting markets should be presumed healthy until proven otherwise (03:59).
• Discussion turns to OpenAI and the cult of transformative tech as possible loci for bubble behavior, even if not publicly traded (04:15–04:39).

3. Critique of Economic “Narratives” & the K-Shaped Recovery

• Sick of the Negativity: Ben rails against “K-shaped economy” narratives:

  “I'm sick of the K shape stuff. I'm sick of it... 62% of American household owns stocks. This number was way lower in the past. A majority of American households own stocks.” (07:37–08:46)

• They discuss how housing and asset ownership may affect sentiment and inequality perceptions, drawing on Peter Thiel's thoughts about the generational compact and capital accumulation (09:12).
• Michael and Ben highlight data showing positive wealth trends among younger Americans, even if real inequities persist (10:59–12:20).
• Michael:

  “What's relevant is that there is an affordability crisis right now for young people. There just is. So this chart is bullshit. Keep. But keep going.” (10:23)

4. Real World Anecdotes & Indicators

• The “third of the crowd” effect at a Lions vs. Commanders game is used to puncture doom-narratives about middle-class decline:

  “You think all of these are like descendants of Henry Ford?... These are all deca millionaires that are traveling? Come on.” (13:09)

• They note that rich people have always won, but today’s visibility amplifies the sense of difference (14:51).
• Social media and materialism escalate cost-of-living anxiety:

  “There are so many luxuries that turned into necessities now. And that's what makes life so much more expensive." (15:17)

5. Corporate Health & Earnings Data

• Corporations are, in Ben’s words, “weathering this decade better than anyone” (35:13), reporting robust earnings growth that outpaces the consumer.
• Quotes from company earnings calls dispel some “slowdown” myths:
  • PNC: “October spending is robust... it's still actually hanging in there among lower end customers.”
  • Bank of America: “The money movement to spending by these consumers was up 6% versus last October. Employment remains steady.”
  • JP Morgan Chase: “...we've seen strengthening both in confidence, and that does continue into the fourth quarter.” (16:15–17:26)

6. Tech Stocks, Capex, and Bubble Debate

• The “Mag 7” (Mega-cap tech stocks) dominate discussions.

  “The Mag 7 is now larger than energy, materials, consumer staples, healthcare, financials, utilities and real estate combined.” (18:29)

• They discuss whether today’s tech market resembles past bubbles—are we in a beneficial, “infrastructure-building” bubble or heading for disaster?
• Ben: “This is a bubble, plain and simple... The question is, are the benefits of the bubble going to be worth it?” (22:14–23:03)
• Michael: “Some of the bubbles that lead to good, healthy things for society—they’re not all... Bubbles aren’t bad...” (23:03)

7. Macro Policy and the “Rigged” Economy

• Discussion about Fed policy, potential rate cuts, and the inevitability of stimulus in future recessions.
  • Ben:

    “Any recession we get will be very short lived because they're going to throw everything they can at it.” (33:32)

  • Michael:

    “The market is rigged. Yes, in a good way, thank God.” (34:05)

8. 50-Year Mortgages: Should We Hate Them?

• Ben introduces the hot-button topic after a viral post:

  “The housing guy, what's his name, Bill Pulte, said, we're working on a 50 year mortgage. It's a game changer. People on social media went nuts..." (42:31)

• They weigh pros and cons:
  • Ben:

    “I tell you what, I don't really hate it as much as most people... I have it as an inflation hedge. So from that perspective, I kind of think like, oh, this makes sense.” (42:50)

  • Michael sees it as an option, not a panacea:

    “For people that are struggling to get into a home, yeah, the 50 year. I don't think it's the worst option.” (43:28)

9. Generational Inequality and Housing

• Ben advocates possible policy action for young, would-be homebuyers—like a one-time, low-rate mortgage to restore fairness for those locked out in recent years (43:59).
• Michael:

  “I am very much in favor of relief, homebuyer relief for young people. I think this is... probably the singular biggest issue in our economy right now.” (44:26)

• Mention data: First-time homebuyership at a record low, median age at a record high—indicative of barriers to entry (44:49).
• Practical discussion on why younger buyers may be avoiding even discounted new homes (48:24–50:31).

10. Miscellaneous: Vegas, Vest Culture, and Anecdotes

• Entertaining rundown of Vegas “types” and casino culture, plus observational humor about “vest guys” in finance (54:01–61:40).
• Robinhood’s expansion into prediction markets and gambling analogies.
  • “[Robinhood] should have a bucket shop in Vegas. You should be able to go in there and trade penny stocks on like 50 times margin.” (54:20)
• Food inflation at casual chains (Sweetgreen, Chipotle) discussed and tied to shifting customer behavior.

11. Listener Q&A: Mortgage Payoffs

• Detailed response to a listener with substantial assets debating whether to pay down a low-rate mortgage:
  • Ben:

    “You’re better off keeping that $130,000 just in cash.” (52:45)

  • Michael acknowledges the power of psychological comfort over math:

    “The psychological component of the money on a monthly basis matters so much more than what's sitting in the bank.” (53:03)

12. Recommendations & Pop Culture

• Plugs for TV (Apple TV’s "Pluribus" pilot), movies ("Americana," "Oh, High"), and lifestyle goods (Amazon Echo Show, Tommy John undershirts).
• Extended banter on Guillermo del Toro's "Frankenstein" and “Materialists.”
• Survey: Ideal age to die—philosophical banter about mortality and aging (61:47–62:54).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Michael Batnick:
  “I think this AI trend takes the S&P 500 to 10,000... if I'm wrong, I'm sorry.” (01:47)

• Ben Carlson:
  “Most people need a Grand Rapids hedge... I would lean more towards this thing is going to get way stupider and insane than it would like, oh, this is going to roll over tomorrow.” (02:43)

• Michael Batnick:
  “What's relevant is that there is an affordability crisis right now for young people. There just is. So this chart is bullshit.” (10:23)

• Ben Carlson:
  “Sick of the K shape stuff. ...62% of American households own stocks. If people are feeling better because of the stock market, most people own stocks.” (07:37–08:46)

• Ben Carlson:
  “Any recession we get will be very short lived because they're going to throw everything they can at it.” (33:32)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Nuance vs. Predictive Media: 01:16–02:43
• Bubble Debate & Tech Concentration: 18:29–22:14
• K-Shaped Recovery Critique: 07:37–12:20
• Corporate Earnings/Consumer Health: 16:15–17:26, 34:38–35:13
• 50-Year Mortgage Discussion: 42:31–44:49
• Housing Market Anecdotes: 48:24–50:31
• Listener Q&A – Mortgage Payoff: 50:35–53:54
• Vegas/Robinhood/Consumer Behavior: 54:01–58:59
• Generational Inequality: 44:26–45:17

Tone & Style

The exchange is witty, candid, and conversational but grounded in data and thoughtfully critical of media-driven narratives. The banter between Michael and Ben is affable and at times self-deprecating, with frequent pop culture references that lighten the mood.

Summary Verdict

The episode stands out for its willingness to challenge prevailing economic gloom with a data-driven, nuanced view. The duo dissect the 50-year mortgage debate, K-shaped recovery, and bubble anxieties while making the case that, despite real structural barriers, today's generational and market narratives are more complicated—and often less dire—than headlines suggest. If you’re new to “Animal Spirits,” this episode offers a robust, reality-based lens on markets and financial culture.