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- [00:00]
A
Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by our friends at Y Charts. Michael, my dream of having an AI assistant is. I don't know, nobody.
- [00:07]
B
Ben, you've said it. Nobody likes to hear dreams.
- [00:10]
A
All right. It's not too far off, but Y charts is already kind of like your assistant for financial advisors. Right. It's a balancing act. You're dealing with current client portfolios, financial planning issues, talking to prospects, Wide Charts proposals helps advisors save time, grow a and improve client communication. They have these templates that you can use.
- [00:30]
B
So wait, so what's your dream?
- [00:31]
A
No, I'm saying why charts does it for you? I just want to.
- [00:33]
B
Y charts is a dream.
- [00:35]
A
Yeah. Why charts is a dream? Right. So they have these templates you can use for advisors. They have thousands of charts that you can use. It just makes your life a little bit easier by using their proposal tool, taking the current client portfolio upload into portfolio tool and then kind of compare and contrast what you can do for them, what's already being done for them.
- [00:52]
B
Would you say it's a life hack?
- [00:54]
A
Very easy? Yes.
- [00:55]
B
It's like, it's like a cold plunge for advisors.
- [00:58]
A
Yes. I've still never done that before. That. It sounds great. I prefer a hot tub, if I'm being honest. Go to ycharts.com. tell them animal spirit sent you 20% off when you sign up for your first subscription. We love Wide Charts. Happy new year to everyone there.
- [01:14]
B
Today's show is brought to you by Fabric. Fabric by Gerber Life is term life insurance you can get done right from your couch, all online and on your schedule. You, you could be covered in under 10 minutes with no health exam required. Ben, we got an angry listener. We said we weren't going to air dirty the laundry, so should we not?
- [01:32]
A
Well, I think someone just misunderstood what insurance is. And insurance, as our team at Realtor always tells us, is kind of protecting something. Protecting an asset or a loved one in the event that something goes wrong. And someone said, hey, what are you trying to sell me insurance on my child for? And it's like, no, you're not buying the insurance for the kid. You're buying insurance on yourself. In case something happens to you, they would be taken care of.
- [01:55]
B
Right?
- [01:55]
A
That's what the insurance is for. That's what fabric can do for you. It's very easy. Term life insurance, you can get ripped up your couch on, online, on your own schedule. Could be covered under 10 minutes. No health exam required. Very easy. Go to meatfabric.comspirits to learn more it's meatfabric.comspirits to learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing, and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben.
- [02:30]
B
Are solely their own opinion and do.
- [02:32]
A
Not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.
- [02:34]
B
This podcast is for informational purposes only.
- [02:37]
A
And should not be relied upon for any investment decisions.
- [02:40]
B
Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
- [02:48]
A
Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. I will be the hundredth person to say this. Not very new, but every day for the past week and a half has felt like a Saturday or a Sunday fair. But this is why we need Fridays, and this is why you and I aren't ready to retire as young bucks. Because you need something to look forward to, and every day is a Saturday or Sunday. It can be fun, but eventually you need the I'm a big fan of moderation as I age. In my younger days, I was not really good at moderation when it came to, you know, eating, drinking, these sorts of things. I didn't know how to control myself. Now, in older life, I realize you have to make it a treat. So that's why you want to look forward to the Friday, to enjoy the Saturday and Sunday. You can't have every day be Saturday and Sunday.
- [03:30]
B
So what are you saying? Cause the last week and a half was like vacation week and everybody was shut down and every day felt like a Saturday.
- [03:35]
A
Well, every day felt like a Saturday or Sunday because it's holidays or the day before a holiday or the day after a holiday. And yeah, just. It's been great, but you need to break it up a little.
- [03:44]
B
We're recording this on December 31st, New Year's Eve. New Year's Eve? You're not a New Year's Eve guy, are you?
- [03:52]
A
This is the first year I could ever remember. We don't have plans for New Year's Eve.
- [03:55]
B
How. How'd that happen? Did you say to Courtney, I'm out? You put your foot down.
- [03:59]
A
It didn't really happen. It just sort of fizzled out. And we had. We went on a little trip this weekend, and we came back yesterday and we thought, like, I don't know, do we need to do something New Year's Eve? Does it matter? We have kids.
- [04:08]
B
I love it. I've been gone for a week, got home yesterday, and we're having people over tonight. I like my friends, but I'd rather be alone, if I'm being honest.
- [04:14]
A
Yeah, I don't mind at all. This is middle age. Welcome to middle age, Ben, where you don't have plans on New Year's and you don't care.
- [04:20]
B
Yeah.
- [04:21]
A
So next week you're giving us a story where you go to pick up a salad, and then the salad is really $80, right? That's what's gonna happen for New Year's Eve.
- [04:28]
B
Hey, that did happen one year, of course. Matter of fact. Matter of fact, I said, nope. We did this right on the podcast a couple years ago. They tried to charge me $80 for a Caesar salad. I said, open the salad up. They open. It was lettuce and parmesan cheese, and there were croutons. I said, nah.
- [04:43]
A
And you said, listen, I'm in the service industry. You're in the service industry. Speaking of which, before we get into.
- [04:48]
B
You know what? I. I did that at dinner the other night. And Bobby goes, why do you always tell people that you were a waiter, too? They don't care. I'm trying to relate those.
- [04:56]
A
Your icebreakers are being bald. And.
- [04:59]
B
Yeah, you know what? Because speaking of being bald, I put a pin in that. My wife did the whole, like, we're not ready. Come back. Can we put the kids in order? And I turned to the waitress, I said, there's always one of these, right? I was in the industry, too. And she's like, stop doing that. So anyhow, last week we spoke about. Or you. You touched a chord, Ben, apparently, with the bingo card. Getting rid of the bingo card. That was popular. We got a lot of people say, yeah, what the hell is that? Who plays bingo anyway? And I think the most common alternative we got was. Was, I did not have that in my parlay.
- [05:37]
A
Oh, I like that. That was not in my parlay this week. Yeah, that's a good one.
- [05:40]
B
So let's. Let's try that. Another phrase that I want to eliminate. I don't know why I thought about this. Maybe I saw an ad or something. Male pattern baldness.
- [05:50]
A
What? I agree, Spald. It doesn't sound very good.
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B
Yeah, male pattern baldness. Don't make it any more insulting than it already is. I'm bald.
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A
That does it. Sounds like you're a disease you're dying of. Oh, no, he's got mill pattern baldness.
- [06:04]
B
Yeah, yeah. No, he's got. He's got six months to shave.
- [06:08]
A
Okay, so my dream of a 30% year is gone.
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B
Why?
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A
Stock market. Well, I don't.
- [06:13]
B
It's only 11:30 Ben, it's the last.
- [06:14]
A
Day of the year. The s and P500 is up 26% or so on the year, so still a 25% or so gain, I guess, depending on where today shakes out. I'm surprised that. I mean, doesn't seem like they should just close the market for a week at the end of the year. Like, what's the point?
- [06:28]
B
Yeah. Who's trading really?
- [06:29]
A
Right. Okay. Good article by Bloomberg. The Ben Carlson forecasting strategy model is gaining steam very fast, my friend. Get on board.
- [06:38]
B
What's your forecasting model make? No forecasts.
- [06:40]
A
My forecasting model of using historical ranges in the way that the stock market acts. Bloomberg had a piece on this.
- [06:46]
B
Oh, that is good. I'm on board with that.
- [06:47]
A
And they said that they looked at every strategist, they looked at the range of strategy results and then the average and then the actual results going back to 2000 every single year. And they looked at. And it's. It's of course wildly off. And they said over the past 25 years, 53% of the forecasts surveyed by Bloomberg clustered between 0 and 10%. So most of the time strategists pick between 0 and 10%, which we know rarely happens and doesn't happen very often. They said in seven of the past eight years, the markets return were outside of the range of all forecasts compiled. That means the high and the low and the market's still. And so most of the time it underestimates the return is what they're saying. If I had to give my gut instinct on 2025, just from my gut.
- [07:34]
B
Drum roll, please.
- [07:36]
A
I think it could be a disappointing year for stocks this year based on expectations.
- [07:42]
B
Why caveat it? Why caveat it? You can't knock Grand Rapids Hedge. You can't not do it.
- [07:47]
A
Of course I have to. Obviously. Of course I don't invest with my gut, so I wouldn't. But I think expectations are too high. That's where I land. I feel like I know some people are saying like, oh, this is the 90s all over again. It does feel a little like late 2020, early 2020. Ish. 2021ish to me.
- [08:06]
B
I think I incept this into your brain. You asked me if I think what's more likely stocks to be up 20% or down. I said down, right?
- [08:11]
A
I think you did. So I think relative to expectations, stocks could. That's just my thinking is expectations are way too high going into the year compared to what they usually are.
- [08:22]
B
Ben, know where I thought you Were going with this. I thought you were going to talk about Torsten Slok's post where he gave predictions with probabilities. And I'm a bit peeved, not at him, at myself, that I didn't put out my 10 predictions yet for 2025, which, by the way, Robin's not too thrilled. I think I'm going to the city tomorrow because I need a day to myself to do these predictions. She said, whoa, whoa. Kids are off. I said, I've been off for a week. I'm going back to work.
- [08:45]
A
You're going to wait. You're going to the office on New Year's Day?
- [08:49]
B
Yeah.
- [08:50]
A
Okay.
- [08:50]
B
That's how you do it.
- [08:51]
A
That's psychotic behavior. Yeah.
- [08:53]
B
No days. But you need your.
- [08:54]
A
You need your Friday to look forward to. That's what you can do. All right, listen, I can see, though, as a person, you've seen the comic before where it's like, young person going into the office on a Monday, and they're all, like, sad. And it's like, person with kids going into the office on Monday, and they're like, joyful.
- [09:11]
B
I do have plans in the city that night with my brother and sister, so I'm going in anyway, but I'm going to take the day because I have work to do. But anyhow, I think I said this last year. In fact, I'm almost positive I did. So keep me honest, Ben, that when I do my predictions in the following year, meaning 2025, I'm going to put some odds on it. Right. Because there was one or two predictions that I made that I really was like, you know, 5% chance. So Torsten Slack beat me to the punch. But I want to set the record straight that I'm not copying him. And I'm not saying he's copying.
- [09:37]
A
You've done this before. Yeah, You've been talking about odds, so I think you need to put yours in. He did it in percentages. You need to put yours DraftKings style. Or.
- [09:43]
B
I'm gonna. I'm gonna do both. I'm gonna do fanduel style, and I'm gonna convert it. For the layman who doesn't understand.
- [09:49]
A
We also need Michael's parlay of the year, though. Like, you need to do an outlandish one at the parlay, by the way.
- [09:54]
B
So I gave one pre NFL season futures bet, right? It was Caleb Williams to get over 3,500 yards.
- [10:02]
A
Oh, did that actually hit? I was. Because I was making fun of you about that one.
- [10:06]
B
Well, last week I was Feeling pretty good. He was at like 3,300. I. I had two weeks to get 200 yards. He threw for a measly 122 yards last week, so he's at 33.93. So he needs a buckle weight because that's 3,500 and a half. So I feel. I feel pretty good. I was at the Sportsbook last week in Bahamar watching this game. And the second half, specifically the fourth quarter, was pure comedy. There was people that were like literally humming and howling about how bad the Bears clock management was. I assume you didn't watch a game because there's no reason for you to watch a game.
- [10:40]
A
No. Who are they playing?
- [10:41]
B
Yeah, they were playing the Seahawks and it was catastrophically bad. So Baja Mar is one of my favorite places on earth.
- [10:50]
A
There's been there times, right?
- [10:51]
B
Yeah, there's a. And we're going back in October. Future proof. It's going to be a blast. So definitely come if you're interested. There's a sports book, there's a casino, there's a water park, there's a million pools, there's Miami Vices.
- [11:08]
A
What else do you need in life?
- [11:09]
B
There's a beach, there's great restaurants.
- [11:13]
A
You actually look like you had a.
- [11:14]
B
Little color there was. Did I? Well, it was not a sunny vacation, unfortunately. It was overcast almost every day. But I didn't let it stop me or slow me down. Right. We're on vacation. We're in paradise. Kids are in the pool. It was warm enough, so it just wasn't sunny, which is fine. There was one person who. I heard her say, another day in paradise. And it was a sarcastic, another day in paradise because it was gray. I don't want. I thought like, come on, right? Where would you. Where would you rather be? I understand the weather is not that accommodative, but people are ungrateful.
- [11:48]
A
I agree.
- [11:49]
B
Anyhow, I saw one thing at the kiosk that Just two quick stories on the Bahamar people. The gambling. The gambling, like crazy people. There was one dude in front of me who didn't hit. He bet a four leg parlay of four different players to each score. First touchdown on a bet. You can imagine what the odds were. It was like 20,000 to one or something like that. So there's only two kiosks. And now it's Sunday morning. There's a line, right? Because people are waiting to bet. There's a dude in front of me. I hate this person. I hate this person. I don't know Him, But I hate him. He was taking forever. And he was probably. In fairness, he was a kid. He was probably 20 years old or something like that.
- [12:29]
A
See, there should be more things in life that come with a shot clock. I say this all the time about the ATM. If you can't get done with the ATM in 60 seconds.
- [12:36]
B
Closes Done. I am not to brag. I am extremely considerate of others in my surroundings. I'm a considerate driver. I'm a considerate traveler. I am generally a considerate person. I know what the people behind me are like. Come on, your time is up. Right. I'm one of those considerate. This person had no consideration. He was at the kiosk forever. And did I say anything? No, I didn't. Because I'm also not a jerk. But come on. And then I look over his shoulder, and he has 15 bucks in there. And the girl that he was with, she keeps looking back at us, and she's like. And it's her responsibility to tap and be like, right?
- [13:13]
A
Yes, Right.
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B
Jerks.
- [13:15]
A
So he's like the guy in Die Hard, like, I'm almost there. I'm almost there. Give me a minute.
- [13:19]
B
You're betting 15 bucks is a line full of people. Have some. Have some consideration. Be a decent person. All right. At the blackjack table, there was a guy who had an ace and a four. Now, I am a by the rules person. I almost never break the rules. Right. There's a book.
- [13:34]
A
You have to. Yeah. If you're in blackjack, you have to follow the rules.
- [13:36]
B
The game is hard enough. Don't make it any harder than it has to be. So this gentleman had an ace and a four. And the dealer was showing, like, a seven or whatever. And he said, I'll stay. I said, whoa, whoa, whoa. It's a free card. You have a soft five.
- [13:51]
A
Yeah. You can't bust.
- [13:52]
B
You can't bust. So whatever he drew, she drew and she won. And he said to me, thanks for.
- [13:58]
A
The advice, in a sarcastic tone.
- [14:02]
B
Oh, yeah. And I went to. And I didn't say anything. I just. Because I was just so stunned at the assholeness of this response. And my advice, obviously, was like, go upstairs. Get out of here. What are you doing?
- [14:13]
A
Don't you think.
- [14:13]
B
Why gambling?
- [14:14]
A
There should be blackjack. A test involved. Like, you have to tell, like, three. Three. Three different hands before you sit on the table. What would you do here?
- [14:23]
B
Yeah, seriously. So there's. I really don't like, like, angry gamblers.
- [14:28]
A
Right.
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B
I understand. Losing money is not fun.
- [14:29]
A
Oh, I Love. I'm a happy gambler. I'm a really happy gambler.
- [14:32]
B
But you're there to have fun.
- [14:33]
A
Yes.
- [14:33]
B
You lose a few bucks, you're paying for entertainment. Hello. You really think you're gonna win?
- [14:37]
A
Yes. I'm not ashamed to say I've been a catchphrase guy in the past. Gambling.
- [14:41]
B
What does that mean?
- [14:42]
A
Like everyone, if you get a. If you get a blackjack, there's a catchphrase.
- [14:47]
B
What is it?
- [14:48]
A
Well, each. Each time you're playing, it's a different catchphrase, obviously. Depends the group you're with.
- [14:51]
B
This is new to me. What's your catchphrase? Give me one.
- [14:54]
A
Okay. There was a bachelor party one time, and I was on. We gambled till the Cinnabon was opening next door. Next to the casino. Right. Probably wasn't the finest establishment in the world. And every time we hit a 21, we said, blammo.
- [15:08]
B
Blammo.
- [15:09]
A
I'm pretty sure blamo. That was it. And yeah, it was a fun night. We all walked away with money. We all walked away with free beers all night. I don't even know how much I won, but it was a fun night of saying blammo. And the dealers were into it. Sometimes the dealer is not into it. Like they can. You can tell they're not into you having fun. This dealer was into us having fun.
- [15:24]
B
Yeah. Well, I'm looking forward to gambling with you at Baja. More in October, Ben.
- [15:28]
A
Can't wait.
- [15:29]
B
See you at the tables.
- [15:30]
A
Good.
- [15:31]
B
I don't know, Lamo.
- [15:33]
A
Okay, maybe an overserved. At the time, there was a good article in the Wall Street Journal about Steve Ballmer, the non investing guru of investing. And they talk about like, what do you actually invest in? Because he says 80% of his portfolio is still in Microsoft stocks and the rest is in index funds. And they kind of like, why don't you have alternatives? Why don't you have private equity? He's like, I got a little private equity. Most of the stuff that I own. He said, maybe we have some index funds in Europe and Japan, but it's mostly us. And then Microsoft, and that's it. And the crazy thing is the stock Microsoft stock did horrible when Ballmer was a CEO.
- [16:03]
B
Yeah, terrible.
- [16:04]
A
Not his fault. He took over. I didn't realize it. Bill Gates totally top ticked this thing. He got out in 2000. Ballmer came in. Ballmer was a CEO from January of 2000 to February 2014. The stock was underwater for his entire period as a CEO. The total return with dividends was negative 9% and he still held on.
- [16:24]
B
Well, missing mobile was pretty big.
- [16:26]
A
Yeah. And he obviously missed a few things, but it really wasn't his fault. It was his Microsoft. Really expensive then it was underwater for 15 years, but they said this is from the Wall Street Journal. To put another way, since he left as CEO, Microsoft has gained 29% annually, including dividends. S&P is on 13% in that time. And so his, his portfolio is basically index funds, Microsoft and the Clippers.
- [16:46]
B
How much money does he have in Microsoft?
- [16:48]
A
What's 80% of his net worth? He's like the fifth richest person in the world. Something crazy.
- [16:52]
B
Does he own 10% of the company? It's got to be that.
- [16:55]
A
I think, I think he's, he has, they said he's richer than Gates for a while. It's just crazy. Anyway, really interesting to hear that level of fortitude. But like people hear that and they're like, okay, see, diversification is for suckers. And thing is, Ballmer was underwater for 15 years on this stock. Right. I'm sure he was continuing. It wasn't like he lumped, summed or something. He probably continued to buy and get more and get more options and.
- [17:19]
B
Well, I doubt, I doubt he was a buyer, but maybe he bought it along.
- [17:22]
A
Well, options, I guess that counts anyway. All right. I feel like 2024 is kind of a year of round numbers. There's a lot of round numbers.
- [17:31]
B
Hit 10 trillion in ETFs.
- [17:34]
A
Yeah. 100,000 in Bitcoin. Yeah. So it was 1 trillion in ETF flows according to the Wall Street Journal, shattering the previous record. And I think that's through November. So it's going to be higher than that. There's now almost $11 trillion in ETF assets. I, I said this on SLAT this morning. We were having a discussion about it. I think that the, the star portfolio manager is kind of dead. There's, it's going to be in and out of small cycles. Cathie Wood was a very short cycle. There's, there's not going to be any like 15 year runs like Bill Miller anymore. I think that's over. I think it's thematic ETFs and I don't think we're going to see another Peter lynch type of person in active, actively managed funds. Is that fair or is that jumping the gun?
- [18:20]
B
Well, I think, I think there'll be another version, a short lived version of it like we just saw.
- [18:25]
A
That's what I, it's, I, I think these, it's shorter versions of Them, they're not. Not.
- [18:28]
B
There will never be another. There will never be another Bill Miller who goes on a 15 year run without performing the index.
- [18:33]
A
Yeah, I don't think so either. Can you imagine how that would be covered today? I mean, it was pretty big news at the time. And didn't he say he was kind of happy to be done with it when it was over because it was.
- [18:44]
B
A lot of pressure.
- [18:45]
A
All right, So I said, I'm getting some late 2020, early 21 kind of flashbacks. This is also from Wall Street Journal. 48 million option contracts have changed hands on a daily basis this year. Change hand daily on average this year. On pace for a record going back to 1973. It's up 9% from a year ago. Look at the options data compared to what it was pre2020. It's more than doubled.
- [19:07]
B
This is permanent.
- [19:10]
A
I think it probably is too.
- [19:12]
B
Well, look, because look, you know, the proof that I have, look at 2022, a horrible year for stocks.
- [19:18]
A
That's true. Options didn't really. Yeah, I guess.
- [19:21]
B
No, they made a new, they made a new all time high in 2022.
- [19:24]
A
So. So would you say that my sort of fears of people getting a little too speculative is overwrought here?
- [19:32]
B
Well, if you, if you're looking at this chart as a sign of excess. Well, the excess has been here for four years.
- [19:37]
A
Yeah.
- [19:38]
B
This is structural. People are not going away. Like, people are not. People are not. People are not going to delete their Robinhood. They're just going to, they're just going to buy different stuff.
- [19:47]
A
Right.
- [19:48]
B
Because there's so many. If stocks aren't working, they'll buy inverse ETFs or put options.
- [19:52]
A
I've said this before, but it's crazy to me that in the early days of the pandemic there were people who were predicting like this is going to be another Great Depression where people. There was a whole generation of people who were in the fetal position financially for the rest of their lives. Right. The whole group of misers going at the Great Depression, saw their families and everything get wiped out. And they said, nope, risk is not for me. And this pandemic was the exact opposite. It sparked. There's more business formation, there's more speculation, there's more trading, there's more options, there's more everything. The pandemic caused a sea change of speculation unlike we've ever seen before.
- [20:26]
B
There was a lot of football on over the last week. I think the first night that we were there or one of the Things.
- [20:30]
A
Like every day, right.
- [20:31]
B
I hit three out of four of my bets. And I told Robin, I said, go to the window, cash it. And so she came back with some money and she goes, why don't we always bet on sports? And I'm like, hello, you want to see my FanDuel account?
- [20:47]
A
That's true. You've been tracking and sharing with us how it's going. Okay. Another one from the Wall Street Journal. They're on a roll here. This is something you and I have been talking about. And I'll give credit to Chris, who we work with. He was probably the first person that brought this to light from, I don't know, 10 years ago maybe, saying, one of the biggest jobs you have as a financial advisor is getting your clients to spend money. I remember the first time Chris said this, I thought, you're nuts, man. What? And he said, no, trust me. Giving your client permission to spend money and helping them get over the psychological hurdles. Spending money is a huge job of a financial advisor.
- [21:22]
B
Some of the best feedback we've gotten from clients consistently, and this is a theme that we at Red holds wealth management hammer a lot. And it's hard because you spend all of your entire career saving and investing and worrying and anxiety about, or do you have enough, and then all of a sudden the income stops and now you're told to go in reverse. And the psychological challenges of that are enormous. And it sounds like a first world problem, and it is, but nevertheless, it is a problem. So the best feedback that we get from clients are, thank you for convincing me that we can afford this purchase, whether it's a house or a luxury.
- [22:01]
A
Car or whatever, Family vacation.
- [22:03]
B
Yeah, anything. Yeah. The money is meant to be spent with purpose and things that provide you with, with joy and memories and that is, It's a tool. And it's just, it's. It's difficult for the, for all of that, for all that to be unwound.
- [22:20]
A
Yeah, it's. It's a completely different change in mindset that people you're not prepared for. So they say. Studies show those who spend more in retirement have greater satisfaction. Yet older Americans often live below their means. They say. There's a new study coming out on this that married 65 year olds with at least $100,000 in assets withdrew an average of 2.1% of their savings annually. And the rule is typically the 4% rule, which is actually more conservative than people realize. And they say it's even worse for the rich people, people with over $700,000 to a million. They actually are even more conservative of how they spend their money. And they, they showed how this, this study from this Michael Finke guy from there.
- [23:00]
B
What I don't know made me laugh. This Michael think guy.
- [23:04]
A
So he, he shared a study saying like you could put aside 40% of your money for emergencies and like long term care and you'd still be fine. And he, he gave a couple of good solutions because obviously like the, the mental part of it is the biggest hurdle. But he said like, listen, if you're really worried about longevity, earmark your home equity for any long term care needs. Right. I'm going to do a reverse mortgage. I'm going to take out a home, whatever it is if I'm really, if things are really that bad, health care wise, that bucket is for this. And he also said like dividing your accounts into different buckets. So If I have $1,000,000, 300,000 of it or whatever is earmarked for travel for the next 30 years, right? And that's the bucket I'm spending from, for travel. And everything else is covering everything else that's good in like mental accounting or something. You have to like trick yourself into spending more in some ways.
- [23:49]
B
When I was in vacation, I got into reading a little bit. I don't know if it's, if it's back or. We'll see.
- [23:57]
A
Did your kids do the thing where they go down the water slide and go back up and go down and go up. That's the greatest thing about a water slide is you can actually relax and not have to play the kids.
- [24:04]
B
We did the lazy river, but this lazy river was a bit crazy. It got a little crazy. There were some waves and some, some water.
- [24:10]
A
Oh yeah, we had big waterfalls in ours. You can't just relax.
- [24:13]
B
It wasn't so actually I brought my drink and my phone because I thought that it was a lazy river. I'm going to have my drink in one hand, my phone videoing the kids. My phone got soaked, my drink spilled in the river.
- [24:26]
A
Lazy rivers are elite though, right?
- [24:28]
B
Very elite. Yeah, I can't, I. That's now the third time. I can't wait. For future proof. We're going to have so much fun.
- [24:32]
A
That's going to be great.
- [24:34]
B
So one of the books that I read was a book that actually a client recommended called Strangers in Paradise. And it goes to this topic of financial. The psychology of Money to steal Morgan's book. And the gist of this book, Strangers in Paradise was that most 80 something percent of people in the United States with money, make it on their own and typically make it coming from a background of not having money. And so I'll put myself in this category. Now the people that are talking about this book are actual wealth. Right. But nevertheless, I, I've never been to the Caribbean before growing up. I had never been on an air to the Caribbean. We did like car trips. Right. We did D.C. and Massachusetts and, and, and whatever.
- [25:21]
A
So there's no example to look to.
- [25:23]
B
Yeah. So the, the, the book, Strangers in Paradise, like, it, it talks about this, this like flipping from the background of where you came from and getting comfort with money. And then it also talks about, like, how, you know, preserving it and how typically the third generation goes broke. But definitely is a bit of a mind being able to take my kids on vacations that I never got to enjoy when I was a child. Like it definitely. I think about it a lot.
- [25:46]
A
Yes. And it gets into the weird thing of spoiling versus giving them great experiences and. Yeah. It's all a big mental hurdle.
- [25:53]
B
Yeah. Like my kids just think vacations are normal.
- [25:57]
A
Yeah. So how do you get them out of that mindset? Right. I all the time tell my kids, like, you know, when I was growing up, I did not have this and I did not have that. And they're like, yeah, do they care? They don't care.
- [26:05]
B
Yeah.
- [26:05]
A
Right. They don't.
- [26:06]
B
So you. I don't know. I don't know what the answer is. You do the best you can.
- [26:09]
A
Yes. But you have to give yourself permission to spend some money and enjoy it and not just hoard it. Or they also give. In the example in the article, some people just decide, like, when the market's up really big, we're giving more money to our kids this year. And so if you're not going to spend it, great, give it to your kids who can use it and make their lives easier.
- [26:28]
B
Yeah. The psychology of hoarding money, I don't understand it. I think probably a lot of that is just deep rooted, whatever psychology and how you grew up and all that sort of stuff. But thank God I do not have that affliction.
- [26:40]
A
All right, Torsten Slok, chart of the week. Why didn't car sales go down when rates went up? So he shows the Fed started hiking and automotive sales continued to go up and up and up. And he said the source for strong demand for cars has been robust income growth, low unemployment, and households having excess savings after the pandemic. So people basically rates because rates got really bad for auto loans. I don't know we're talking 9, 10% in some cases, maybe even higher. And it didn't really stop people from purchasing new vehicles, which are way more expensive. Insurance is higher, the cost of the vehicles is higher. People are buying bigger vehicles, which makes them more expensive. Do you think that a lot of this comes down to the fact that, hey, I've got a 3% mortgage locked in that is fixed. I can spend more on my car, my vehicle now. You don't think that's part of it for some people?
- [27:27]
B
No.
- [27:27]
A
Okay. Because I do think, like if I had to right size my housing cost to the market right now, pay market rate for a house plus market borrowing rates, how much more I'd be spending, like, oh, maybe that can be spent elsewhere. You don't think that that's how people's minds work?
- [27:45]
B
No, not really.
- [27:47]
A
Yeah, maybe like five people.
- [27:48]
B
Yeah, like you.
- [27:52]
A
Okay.
- [27:52]
B
But I do think, but I do think that the slack that you're talking about is a real thing.
- [27:56]
A
So how about this? I feel like we've gone back and forth on this a million times and I do too. Mike Zuccardi tweeted Goldman Sachs has a wealth effect from equity markets. Should provide an additional boost to consumer spending in 2025. He's just showing net worth at all time highs. And the fact that there's just more of a, of a bump there, I just, I don't know what really stops this train outside of some sort of exogenous event that we can't see coming.
- [28:19]
B
Did anybody stop spending in 2022?
- [28:22]
A
No. Even we thought a recession was coming.
- [28:26]
B
So. Yeah, listen, a long bear market associated with a long real recession will change people's spending habits. Duh. That's what a recession is, right?
- [28:39]
A
Yeah. It's not like really smart and intelligent to point out like the biggest risk here is a recession.
- [28:43]
B
Of course I don't want to say that, that there's nothing that's going to stop this.
- [28:46]
A
It'll.
- [28:47]
B
A recession will stop it. And if, and I don't know when it happens, it could be this year or in 10 years. But a recession will change people's spending habits because they'll get laid off. That's what I'm saying.
- [28:54]
A
The question is, what's the cause of the recession? That's the hard part. And no one's going to predict it. That's my whole point is no one's going to predict the cause of the next recession. Economic expansions don't die because of old age. Right. That's not a thing. They don't just peter out.
- [29:08]
B
Right.
- [29:09]
A
All right, good news of the week. This is from Gregor McDonald, I think, who is a former guest on Compound in France. Right. This is interesting. Natural gas prices are so low they should be making headlines. Just how cheap is American gas these days? Imagine walking into a supermarket this week to buy a last minute item for Christmas and discovering that everything has been marked down to 1999 prices. Yes, that cheap. Basically saying that like we're, we've gone nowhere for the past 25 years from natural gas prices. And he's basically saying anytime the prices have been high, have been an outlier. And this is, when you look at this chart, it's kind of insane. In the 2000s you have these big, huge spikes in natural gas prices and now they've just gone nowhere for a quarter of a century. And this is the kind of thing that you just never hear about, right? You only hear about prices that rise. You never hear about prices that don't rise.
- [29:58]
B
True.
- [29:59]
A
Right. Anyway, all right, here's something I would have been wrong about and we've talked about this. If you would have given me the mortgage rates this year and said, oh, they're going to be 7% all year, I would have said something. I don't know, eventually something has to break. And Matt Chart kid made this for me. Basically right when the Fed started cutting rates, mortgage rates shot up. So they were falling from over 7 to almost 6% by September. The Fed cut now back to 7%, which I'm guessing a lot of normie civilians outside of the finance world would look at this and go, that doesn't make sense. I don't get this. Right? We kind of know the reasons for this, but this is one of those, if you're not in it, you don't get it. Bill McBride said he's been arguing for a while that 6 to 7% would be the new normal for mortgage rates. He wrote this on Blue Sky. He said the so called neutral rate is moving up. If we add 2% inflation, 2% real rate, a normal yield curve and 30 year rates at 175 basis points above the 10 year, that puts mortgage rates in the 6 to 7% range. How does this not have an impact?
- [31:01]
B
Eventually it is having an impact today. What do you mean?
- [31:05]
A
I mean on like the greater economy, like it's bad for realtors, it's bad for people in construction, it's bad for home builders, it's bad for housing activity and all the areas that are tied to that, but it hasn't impacted the greater economy yet when does that happen? Or is it just that we have these shock absorbers elsewhere that make up for it?
- [31:26]
B
Yeah, I think that's it. Well, also the numbers that we've mentioned a million times is it 2/3 of Americans own a home, so McBride has it.
- [31:36]
A
So 55% of mortgages are still under 4% and 73% under 5%. So I guess that's all right.
- [31:43]
B
So that's it.
- [31:45]
A
That's it, yeah.
- [31:46]
B
Solved it.
- [31:48]
A
It seems bizarre to me that something that if you add up all the ancillary things that are tied to the housing market, furniture and realtors and construction and all these things, it's like something like 20 of the economy.
- [31:58]
B
Yeah. Somebody emailed us a PDF from the National association of Realtors. Like 2025. 2025 outlook. How about this one? Here's housing hotspots for 2025. Top markets amid stabilizing rates. I see Grand Rapids, Michigan. What's Kentwood?
- [32:17]
A
One of the little suburbs of Grand Rapids.
- [32:19]
B
Grand Rapids offers a unique combination of affordability and promising long term prospects with modern farmhouses. I know I made that part up. With 36% of millennial renters able to afford homeownership and 12% of households entering prime home buying age within the next five years, the demand for housing will remain strong.
- [32:36]
A
It does seem so. This area has seen a lot of.
- [32:39]
B
The availability of starter homes allows newcomers to purchase a home and establish roots, making Grand Rapids a standout market for 2025.
- [32:47]
A
You purchase in the city limits. It's actually relatively affordable to find a house and there are lots of young people coming to the area. There's a huge health care, like all sorts of doctors and people.
- [32:56]
B
Can I be honest? I'm not positive I know what city limits mean.
- [33:01]
A
Well, there's the city and then outer sort of. I don't call them suburbs, but outside of the city limits.
- [33:07]
B
All right, so you don't know either.
- [33:10]
A
The city limits are literally drawn on a map. So I guess the outer burbs are where it's just different school districts and different.
- [33:19]
B
You know what else? I don't know what it means. Been afraid to admit this for a while, but I'll come clean. Anytime you see neo in a word or post, like we're living in a post. I mean, I know what post means, but I think neo means new. But I still just don't really understand like neo Keynesian is. I don't know if I just made that term up, but whenever you see like neo post with like Economics stuff. I just, I.
- [33:43]
A
No, it's.
- [33:44]
B
Don't get it.
- [33:44]
A
You had it. It's new. Like new like. Or like modified, I guess, or like a new.
- [33:49]
B
It's like, it's ew. It's like the Winnie the Pooh meme. Right?
- [33:52]
A
Okay. Yes, I agree. It sounds like you're trying very hard. All right.
- [33:56]
B
This is a good email, sounding all educated.
- [33:58]
A
We've talked, we've talked about FU money recently. This was a good one. And I feel like this, this is a lot of what fire boils down to. I feel like you missed one of the core of what FU money can mean. Probably because you have pleasant jobs you seem to enjoy. Fair, true. FU money means your boss can demand you do something unethical or degrading and you can just tell them, no, thank you. In automotive, I've seen guys out of fear of their jobs fudge emission results to the government or engineers work the production line during strikes. We should get Dateline on this. I think FU money turns you into the kind of worker who can stand on principle and do what is right. And again, I think this is a lot of what the fire thing is about. I know there's a lot of people especially love to dunk on the fire people for actually being unhappy, but I think a lot of it is they're unhappy in their jobs and that's why they do the fire thing. And of course you don't find fulfillment by getting a million dollars and living off of it forever. But if you're in a soul sucking job, I totally understand the idea of I'm gonna do everything I can to get out of this soul sucking job. And for some people, it's not going to a different job. It's getting out of the rat race completely.
- [34:56]
B
Yes.
- [34:56]
A
So I totally get it. That makes a lot of sense to me.
- [34:59]
B
Good email. All right. Somebody sent us an article. The New York Times is getting in on it. What's the secret to choosing a good airplane movie? Did we start this trend?
- [35:09]
A
We've been talking about it for a while.
- [35:12]
B
So in the article there was a link to another article talking about like how you're more prone to crying on an airplane. So here's what a psychiatrist said.
- [35:21]
A
I've never cried on an airplane. I'm sure you have.
- [35:24]
B
Oh, yeah, just wait. Being on an airplane means you're traveling and that often has some kind of sentimental value. So if you think about it, you are really primed to be more emotional. Traveling can increase oxytocin levels, especially when traveling with Loved ones. It's the same reason couples have more sex on vacation. Okay. So anyway, I watched. On the way down to the Bahamas, I watched the Christopher Reeve documentary. Guessing you haven't seen it.
- [35:49]
A
No. Is that hbo? Maybe?
- [35:51]
B
Yeah. Holy shit. Thank God I had my hood on, because I wasn't. I didn't have, like, a tear. I was literally crying. Like, crying and almost. Almost sniffling. It was so heavy and sad. And Christopher Reeve, for the young people, was one of the most famous people on the planet. He played Superman, and he had a devastating accident.
- [36:22]
A
He fell off huge deal when he.
- [36:23]
B
Got hurt and broke his neck and was paralyzed and was a huge advocate for the. The whole community. So where was I. Where was I going with this? Yeah, just thank God Robin didn't look over, because she would have been like, what in the world? So, yeah, tears coming down my face. And this is not exactly a ringing endorsement, but if you lost a loved one like I did, my mom died in 2011, and thank God the. The pain gets a little bit easier with every passing year, because if it didn't, your body would die. You would just die of sadness. So the tears don't flow the way that they once did. So if you are looking for a reason to cry. Because I like crying. I love it. It gives me. It gives me the feeling.
- [37:09]
A
It does feel like your body just needs it sometimes, right?
- [37:11]
B
Sometimes you just need to cry. So if you just need to cry and you can't get the. The. The tear ducts working like they used to watch this documentary. It was really incredible.
- [37:19]
A
And so grief is the kind of thing where, like, something will just trigger it again and it'll all just come flooding back. Right?
- [37:24]
B
So it was so sad. Like, not only what happened to him, but then his. His wife, who was by all accounts an absolute saint, she died, like, 14 months after he did from lung cancer. She never smoked. And they're the poor family. Just an unimaginable tragedy. All right, enough of the sadness. One more thing that I experienced on the airplane this week on the way home. What else did I watch? I think that's it.
- [37:51]
A
So you know what I'm always doing, though? Like, finding the right movie. It's talking about. I'm just like this scrolling forever. I scroll everything, and then I go back to the start.
- [37:59]
B
Same. So I did the new releases, and then I did the A to Z. So I did all of that, and there wasn't anything that I was super into. So I said, you know what? Let me hit the TVs. Let me hit the TV show and I started watching Linus, and I saw four episodes of the first season. I'll finish this thought later. And then I binged the rest of it yesterday and this morning in bed. Hell of a show. Lots of fun.
- [38:20]
A
I started that one, too. I started that one, too.
- [38:22]
B
Okay. Super bingeable. So maybe. Anyway, maybe that's another tactic. Shows are so bingy these days that maybe movies are out and TV shows are in. On the airplane.
- [38:33]
A
I've actually never. I only do movies on airplanes. I never do TV shows.
- [38:36]
B
Cause you didn't even know. Yeah, now you know.
- [38:40]
A
All right, another Torsten Slack one. The average daily rate for a hotel in New York is $417. Shot up a lot this year, actually. It must be one of the most volatile prices that there is. And I know it's seasonal or it depends on when you come. Because when I come, there'll be times where I come and stay at the same hotel. And the range is, I don't know, $300 for literally the same hotel, depending on the day or the month or whatever. Whenever I'm coming, like, I'm coming there in a week. And it was ridiculously cheap for New York. And it's just because I guess no one is traveling.
- [39:11]
B
Yeah, then.
- [39:12]
A
So I did a little traveling, too. We did a weekend with some friends in Chicago. Stayed at the hotel where they did the Home Alone pool, which is kind of cool to see kids like that homeowned two.
- [39:22]
B
Really cool.
- [39:22]
A
Yeah. Because they filmed the pool there because they didn't have it in New York. My son became obsessed with big buildings being in Chicago. And so we took them to the top of the Hancock Building and did the lean over thing. You know, where you lean over and it puts you down and you look out.
- [39:33]
B
I did that with. With Josh when we were there.
- [39:35]
A
Very cool.
- [39:36]
B
Years ago.
- [39:36]
A
Yeah. Very cool. So here's my tourist request for next time coming to New York. How come you never take me to the top of the Empire State Building before?
- [39:41]
B
I've never done it.
- [39:42]
A
You've never done it. Okay. So next time I come, if we have time, we have to do it together.
- [39:46]
B
Wait, should we do it? Should we do it next week?
- [39:48]
A
Sign me up.
- [39:49]
B
Actually, it's probably a good time to do it because nobody's going to be here.
- [39:52]
A
Yeah, let's do it.
- [39:53]
B
All right. One of those days. All right, let's get tickets. Speaking of Home Alone, you ever appreciate the Home Alone soundtrack as one of the greatest soundtracks of all time?
- [40:02]
A
We were listening to it in the car.
- [40:05]
B
Alright, so it's John Williams, composer of Superman.
- [40:08]
A
Really good background music. The kids were like. We did some light shows and the kids were napping on the way home. And we put that on as a nice soft.
- [40:14]
B
All right, so here's a plug. Did I talk about that? I went to see Elf at the Philharmonic. Okay. So I went to see Elf with the kids and the family. And it was so much fun. It was so much fun. And of course I've seen Elf a million times, but seeing it with people laughing like it's the first time you've seen it with a live orchestra. So they do that. They do it with Home Alone. And I think they also said Back to the Future in Star Wars. But I was thinking about the music.
- [40:41]
A
That is really cool.
- [40:43]
B
So if you ever take your family to New York City or if anyone listening highly recommend that for family activity.
- [40:50]
A
Did you see Will Ferrell dressed as Elf at the LA Kings game? Just a national treasure. So actually, my wife and I don't have a lot of financial talks anymore. We used to have more probably, but like once a year she's kind of like, hey, so what's the story with next year for spending? Like, what are we doing with our money? And every once in a while she'll kind of hit me with one of these. And she said, the only thing I care about. I'm like, all right, let's hear it. She said, I just, I make a big travel budget. She says, I love taking trips. Little big, whatever. Like, I want to keep traveling and having experience with the kids, like, forsake all else. And that's the thing is traveling. Because for years, when we had twins, at first we did not want to travel because it was too much stuff. It was two car seats or two strollers or whatever. The double stroller. It's just a pain. So for years we didn't really do anything and now that we can and the kids are enjoying it more. So that's our annual spending talk. It's just more travel.
- [41:39]
B
There's no better money spent, in my view, than vacations with the family. Because also it's. It's so fleeting. Yes, I heard, I heard somebody talk about this. Like 80% of the time you spent with your kids before the 18th birthday.
- [41:55]
A
It's brutal, right?
- [41:56]
B
Yeah.
- [41:57]
A
My oldest daughter's 10 and it's gonna gone.
- [42:00]
B
Yeah.
- [42:01]
A
Bunch of people sent us this. Flying was already the worst. Then America stopped using headphones. So it says if security lines, flight delays and long layovers weren't Enough. There's a new scourge for facing holiday travelers. A surprising number of people who think it's okay to have phone conversations on speaker or watch movies and shows without headphones.
- [42:15]
B
Is this made up? I don't. Is this. Is this really.
- [42:18]
A
Oh, my gosh. You don't. So I'll. At least once or twice I'll get on a plane, and most of the time, it'll be a parent shoving a YouTube iPad in front of a kid with no headphones, and you hear their video games or their YouTube videos out loud.
- [42:30]
B
No, no.
- [42:31]
A
You've never experienced this? I always give a nasty. Like, are you serious? I give one of those, like, head turns. Like. What? You've never experienced this? Oh, yeah. Or people doing, like, a FaceTime or a speaker. Like, it happens a lot.
- [42:45]
B
That is so rude.
- [42:48]
A
I think the solution should be you get a ticket, and you either have to pay the ticket and keep talking on speakerphone, or you show proof that you bought a pair of AirPods or the equivalent. Cause you can buy a knockoff brand of headphones for $20.
- [43:04]
B
Okay. I. Honestly, I feel like I would be pretty sensitive to this stuff as a considerate person. This would bother the hell out of me.
- [43:10]
A
It's true. All right, I have a service question for you. You were in the service industry. You worked as a waiter.
- [43:13]
B
Damn right I was. Yeah. Not just a waiter. I'll remind the audience. Busboy, cabana boy for years, Caddy for one day. I didn't do well there. Longtime waiter. Yeah. Service industry.
- [43:25]
A
All right, so we were another family who has three kids, and we have three kids. That's 10 people. So big table. And I think it's one of those deals where a party of eight or ten or more gratuities included. But the waitress didn't tell us this. So I got the bill, and I go to write the. And I don't ever even look at the bill. I just sign it. And I looked at it, and it said, add additional gratuity. And I said, wait a minute. Does this mean it's already added? Because it didn't. It didn't itemize it. It just said it. You know, we just split the bill in half. And I had to ask them. They said, oh, yeah, that it's already included in there.
- [43:54]
B
Not nice.
- [43:55]
A
But she didn't tell us. She should tell us, right?
- [43:57]
B
No, you detract the tip in that case. No, I'm kidding. But that happened to me one time at dinner. We had a. We had a dinner that was way more Expensive than it should have been. And then the next morning, my friend texted me the receipt. He said, hey, this jerk didn't tell us. And it was already an expensive meal.
- [44:10]
A
Yeah.
- [44:10]
B
That they put 20% on top. That is so effing rude.
- [44:14]
A
Yes. You have to tell.
- [44:16]
B
I can't imagine not telling the family that, hey, tip is included.
- [44:22]
A
Yes. Okay.
- [44:22]
B
That is so dirty.
- [44:23]
A
A bunch of people email us to say, you guys are wrong about merging in traffic and construction, saying the zipper method actually works where you should keep going all the way to the front of line and then merge.
- [44:32]
B
Yeah, if everyone did that, it would work.
- [44:34]
A
Yeah, but that's not what we are talking about. We are talking about people who've already merged and then the jerk who goes to the front. And actually, there's a book on this. It's one of the better books I've read. It's called Traffic why We Drive the Way we do by Tom Vanderbilt. It's like 2009. It's really worth a read. And he talks about this in the book, and he says the problem is not necessarily the people who go to the front of the line. It's the construction signs. So you shouldn't have a construction sign three miles back saying, left lane closed ahead. You should have. You should have the sign.
- [45:00]
B
Right, Right.
- [45:00]
A
Like, maybe more like a mile in advance. Maybe a half mile, so people don't start getting over, too. So that's the problem is the signs that tell people, and then people start breaking and getting over too fast. So that's the problem. That's. That's what he's talking about. The zipper thing. Yeah, you get in closer. Okay.
- [45:16]
B
All right. So somebody sent us this random knowledge here. Harriet Winslow from Family Matters. Early on in that show, she was fired from a job at the Chicago Chronicle where she was an elevator attendant.
- [45:26]
A
I did not realize that that was Friday night, back in the day. Family Matters.
- [45:30]
B
How good was tgif?
- [45:31]
A
So my daughter.
- [45:32]
B
Step by step.
- [45:33]
A
So my daughter got. I remember that one, too.
- [45:35]
B
Dinosaurs. That was kind of crappy.
- [45:38]
A
So my daughter got into Fuller House on Netflix over Christmas break, and she binged.
- [45:42]
B
Fuller House was not bad.
- [45:43]
A
She binged all five seasons of Fuller House, which is the new one on Netflix.
- [45:46]
B
They made five.
- [45:47]
A
Five. I didn't realize that either. And she watched the end, and she was like, you know, one of those things where you binge a show and you're kind of sad when it's over? She was like, I'm kind of sad. It's done. But she. Then she moved on to the regular full house.
- [45:57]
B
Where. Where do you see that on Hulu?
- [45:59]
A
Yeah, and totally into it. So.
- [46:02]
B
By the way, the premise of that show, if you think about it, Uncle Jesse, Joey and Danny with the girls was really wild.
- [46:10]
A
Yes, it was a little out there.
- [46:13]
B
Okay. Why people look older in the past. What has this been?
- [46:17]
A
Someone sent us this thing from Rodger Ebert talking to Spielberg about doing war movies, Saving Private Ryan. And he said, Today, boys 17 or 18 look like children. But back then, 16, 17, 18 year old's face actually looks sometimes like a 29 to 35 year old. He said, if you look at all those guys coming down the game planks in the documentary footage, they all look much older than they actually were. And he's saying, like, they asked him why. He said, I don't know, part of it is just stress back then, like living through war times, like hardens you as an individual. So he said he had to really look for people who looked older to play those roles in Saving Private Ryan.
- [46:51]
B
That makes so much sense. You know, macaulay Culkin was 37 in Home Alone. No, but just think about how much harder life was.
- [47:00]
A
Yes, that's part of it, is life is easier these days and it doesn't. And people said, sunscreen, look at us looking.
- [47:05]
B
And yeah, I mean, how young do we look? Very youthful, you know, Christopher Reeve, speaking of this was 24 when he played Superman.
- [47:15]
A
Wow. I did not realize that.
- [47:17]
B
You gotta be kidding me. He was 24 years old.
- [47:19]
A
He did look a lot older, didn't he? Geez. All right, story time. We ended up in the ER on Christmas night this year. My son accidentally got his lips split open. Had to get some stitches. It was the end of a Christmas party. My wife and I show up to the ER in our matching Christmas vacation sweatshirts. Ugly sweatshirts. The one I wore on the show last week. And she got the matching one.
- [47:41]
B
George has been through some stuff.
- [47:42]
A
He's been to the ER like seven times. So he got some stitches and it was a bummer for him. And he kept saying, this is, you know, the worst Christmas ever. But it was actually a very proud parent moment for me. He gets his stitches, they come in and they didn't do the shot for the numbing, they just put some the cream on it. And they said, you know, and he split his lip open really bad. And they said, you know, we could give you a shot or we could just try it with the numbing. It might hurt a little more. And he said, I don't want the shot. Just do the numbing. And the nurse came in, and I said, do you want me to hold your hand while you get stitches? Cause it might hurt a little bit. And he said, no, no. Kind of like, get out of here. And he got stitches. He didn't flinch once when she did the stitches. He didn't cry. He didn't squirm. He just let her do the stitches and was kind of, like, shrugged his shoulders and it was over. And it was like. Honestly, my wife was like, you know, so upset that he was bleeding. And I was like, that was a very proud moment for me that he was so tough, because I told him I got stitches in my lip when I was in fourth grade, and I bawled like a baby when they gave me the shot. And, like, I was crying, and he didn't, like, even move. And I'm like, dude, I can't believe how much tougher you are than I was back then. I was crying like a baby, and you did it like nothing. And so that was actually a very proud moment for me as a parent. He was so tough. But, yeah, the funny thing is, is that, you know, they use a little hook thing to give you. Like, I was watching, really. And he kept being like, where's the hook? Where'd she put it?
- [49:05]
B
I think if I. If I were you, I would have been crying.
- [49:08]
A
My wife was, so she had enough tears. But I was. I was. Yeah, I was. I was a proud parent.
- [49:14]
B
That's. Yeah, not.
- [49:15]
A
Not a fun moment. We were in the ER till midnight, I think, on Christmas night. But, yeah, he's all good.
- [49:22]
B
One more thing that I noticed at Baha Mar. Thong bathing suits.
- [49:28]
A
Women or men?
- [49:31]
B
I did see one man in a bikini. Hammock and banana hammock. I'm sorry, I've said it before. I'll say it again. I really want to wear one of those just for the lulz. All right. Robin will not have it. So, yeah, thong bathing suits used to be, like, a very non American thing. I don't know if it's, like, European or wherever where you see it more frequently. It crossed over. Crossed over the pond. It's now a thing, apparently.
- [49:57]
A
I did see a Puna Cana, too.
- [49:59]
B
It is bizarre. Now I don't have daughters, but it is odd seeing a girl in a thong with her dad. And even Robin said this to me multiple times. She's like, another one.
- [50:10]
A
I have two daughters. Please don't. I don't want to have this conversation.
- [50:13]
B
Well, you're from the Midwest. I think you're okay, that's true.
- [50:15]
A
They're going to be wearing snow pants. Here's one other thing I noticed when I was on I trip a few weeks ago. Tell me if you thought, like, you see a lot more people with tattoos now on vacations, right? Like, tattoo. Like, women will have tattoos on their thighs or like, lots of guys with tattoo sleeves. Do you think people with tattoos find each other to co. Mingle? Because I saw a lot of couples who both had lots of tattoos usually don't see a couple where either the guy or the girl or both guy. Just one person has all the tattoos and the other person doesn't have any. It seemed like they were the couples you saw, they both had a lot of tattoos. You think that's a trait you look for in a mate if you are a tattoo person?
- [50:50]
B
Oh, yeah. I know. Yeah, Definitely. Yeah. All right, Ben, recommendations? What do you got to end the year?
- [50:59]
A
Okay. I don't have any new stuff because all we've been watching is holiday movies. So I just want to give my appreciation for. I just love the Christmas movie discourse that we have every year now, because I do, too. Because the classics are. They're not changing. So we have to look for different things every year. Like, you can't be having the same conversation of is Die Hard a Christmas movie? Or what did Kevin McCalish's dad do? You can't have those same conversations anymore because they've already been had.
- [51:23]
B
He was an investment banker.
- [51:24]
A
No, probably.
- [51:27]
B
Where do you stand on it? It's a Wonderful Life.
- [51:29]
A
It's my mother's favorite movie of all time. Or Christmas movie of all time.
- [51:32]
B
I've only seen it once. I should probably revisit next year.
- [51:35]
A
Okay. I don't watch a lot of the oldies. To me, it's like 80s and forward that. Sorry. Even.
- [51:42]
B
How about a New Year's resolution for you? Watch Casablanca.
- [51:44]
A
I tried. Remember? I made it halfway through.
- [51:46]
B
No, no, no.
- [51:47]
A
You.
- [51:47]
B
You watched Citizen Kane.
- [51:49]
A
I did Casablanca too.
- [51:50]
B
You couldn't make it to Casablanca.
- [51:53]
A
It's too old. Like, even A Christmas Story, I feel, because. A little. Because they try. It's like, I don't know. It's made in the 80s.
- [51:58]
B
The color, right?
- [51:59]
A
Yeah, it was made. It's supposed to be in the 60s, so even that's a little too old for me. But so here's my. Here's my attempt to add to the discourse of Die Hard since I watched it. So remember, there's that part where Hans Gruber, like, tell. In the 80s, every villain would have to Tell what their plan is. And then the bad. The good guy would thwart that plan, right? They'd tell him what the plan is before the plan going awry. So he's. He talked about how he wanted to steal these bear bonds. And he said before they realized what's happened to them, he was pretending that he was helping out political terrorism, but he just wanted money. So he wanted to get these 20% bear bonds to live on the beach. And I think Die Hard is actually a movie about reaching for yield and the dangers of reaching for yield. Cause Hans wanted to live that fire lifestyle with the 20% yields on the beach. And so he resorted to a life of crime. That's my addition to the discourse. All right, finally, a couple more things. Middle aged dads and Christmas movies that I can relate to. Okay, so in Family Man, Nicolas Cage walking the dog in the middle of the night, waiting for the dog to take a poop. Now that I have a dog.
- [52:51]
B
I never saw that movie.
- [52:53]
A
Oh, my. Okay, you will cry if you watch that movie, the Family Man. Oh, it's. Oh, I love that one. But he walks the dog in the middle of the night and can't. The dog won't poop. And he's like, why won't you just. And that's me. Now that I have a dog, I'm the guy who walks. You know, I thought, like, oh, maybe the kids will walk the dog occasionally. Nope. But I actually love it.
- [53:08]
B
Wait, let me ask you this. Do you really. Is this Christmas time? Meet the parents? Is that Christmas time?
- [53:14]
A
No. It should be, but it's not.
- [53:16]
B
Wait, well, just. Do you relate more to Jack Burns or to. What's Ben Stiller's character in that name?
- [53:21]
A
Greg Fokker.
- [53:22]
B
Greg. Oh, yeah, geez.
- [53:23]
A
I'm still. Yeah, still fucker. But eventually it's gonna be Jack Burns.
- [53:27]
B
Uh, you're. You're. You're approaching Jack Burns territory probably.
- [53:32]
A
Here's another one. Clark Griswold in a Christmas vacation, dealing with the in laws like he's dealing with his parents coming in. And like this happened with us this year, my parents just decided to spring it on us. Hey, we're coming today early. Oh, okay. We're not ready for you, but sure, yeah, we have enough towels, we have enough blankets. Everyone, come on. So I dealt with that, too. And finally another one, Family Stone, which I watch occasionally. Sometimes you're parenting your parents, and sometimes they're still parenting you when you get to middle age. Right. Because here's something they don't Tell you about middle age. You have to take care of. At a certain age, you're taking care of your kids and your parents to make sure everyone's happy.
- [54:04]
B
Is that the sandwich generation?
- [54:05]
A
I think so. Right? So, like, now the grandparents expect you to, like, take care of their meals and stuff. Maybe that's payback for them being parents for you forever. But no one prepared me for this.
- [54:14]
B
I love the handoff. So now I'm the host?
- [54:18]
A
Yeah. You're the person in charge.
- [54:19]
B
Yeah, I much prefer it, to be honest.
- [54:21]
A
Okay.
- [54:21]
B
I'm gonna say the person. I mean, my wife does everything, but we. We do it at our house.
- [54:24]
A
I don't know when this happened, but it's just like, oh, wait, we're the one in charge now. I didn't. I didn't sign up for this, but I guess I did.
- [54:29]
B
Yeah, no, you did.
- [54:30]
A
Okay, that's all I got.
- [54:31]
B
All right, all right. I did make a. Oh. The other book that I read on vacation was the McConaughey book green light. Holy shit.
- [54:41]
A
Great book, right?
- [54:42]
B
The story about him fighting the warrior guy in Africa.
- [54:48]
A
I'm operating on the assumption that 20% of the stories were false, but even if 80% are true, it's a great book.
- [54:54]
B
What a life. So I almost want to read it or listen to it. The audiobook. I'm not going to, but I almost am going to. So McConaughey, basically, he made A Time to Kill, got famous, and then just bought an RV and just lived in a van for a couple of years, driving around the country and then going to the Amazon in Africa. And if he was alive during the Instagram era, I mean, just the coolest dude ever.
- [55:23]
A
Yes. I definitely appreciated him way more after reading that book.
- [55:26]
B
What an incredible, incredible person. Unbelievable. Okay, so I made a top 10 list for my movies in 2024. I saw a lot of movies this year, and so there was a lot of movies that didn't make the list. I thought it was a good year for movies. At least it was. Was for me. So in, I guess, in order, ish, Dune Part two. Did you see Dune Part two?
- [55:46]
A
I did.
- [55:47]
B
All right, just say check or not check if you've seen those movies. Dune Part two. Anora.
- [55:51]
A
No, on my list.
- [55:52]
B
Strange Darling.
- [55:54]
A
What's that one? Is that the one where they're. You think they're in the 60s, but they're not?
- [55:59]
B
What is that? How are you going to Google this movie where they think they're in the 60s, but they're not?
- [56:05]
A
Okay, that's Definitely not the one I'm thinking of. Keep going. I'll find the movie I'm talking about.
- [56:08]
B
Okay. The substance, Definitely not for you. No challengers.
- [56:14]
A
Yes, I like that one.
- [56:16]
B
Civil War. No, it's not a good catch movie. Probably skip it. But it was great in the theater. Love Lies Bleeding. You did see that movie? I made you see that movie.
- [56:24]
A
Yes, that was decent.
- [56:27]
B
Smile 2. Definitely not Mads, which was a Parisian horror film, I believe. Definitely not for you. And lastly, lastly, Hitman on Netflix.
- [56:38]
A
Okay, I love that. So there's.
- [56:39]
B
Oh, and there's so many good movies this year. Well, not so many. I like Twisters. Speaking of. Glenn. All right, what's one you're thinking of?
- [56:45]
A
The one with Florence Pugh and Harry Styles.
- [56:48]
B
Oh, I did not like that.
- [56:50]
A
Okay.
- [56:50]
B
Oh, blink twice for that. I like that. Blank. Blink Twice. No, that movie is Don't Worry, Darling.
- [56:55]
A
That's it. See, it had Darling in the name.
- [56:56]
B
Yeah, I liked the first 70%, but the end, they just really fell flat for me. But I had fun. I had fun. So, Ben, it turns out that I am a Taylor. Sheroded Stan full frontal. I don't know, full. Full bore.
- [57:09]
A
Yeah, I told you I was giving up on him, but I started Landman, and I really like it. And I watch Lioness, too.
- [57:14]
B
So how far into Landman are you?
- [57:16]
A
I think we're only two episodes in, but I'm in.
- [57:18]
B
Okay, well, it's not what you think. Like, it gets good. All right, so I didn't. So I'm Googling this Taylor Sheridan as if he hasn't been around for a long time, but I wasn't familiar with his work.
- [57:26]
A
Wait, where are you on sicario? Sicario 2.
- [57:30]
B
I love sicario. It's a Denis Villeneuve, one of my favorites.
- [57:33]
A
Did you watch another Denis Villeneuve?
- [57:34]
B
Taylor Sheridan Connection?
- [57:35]
A
Oh, that's right.
- [57:37]
B
Did I watch the second one? I did.
- [57:39]
A
Okay, I did. I loved the second one, too. I thought it was really good.
- [57:42]
B
All right, so he. He. He wrote Sicario. He wrote Hell or High Water. I love Hell or High Water.
- [57:48]
A
It's a good movie. Yep.
- [57:49]
B
He wrote Wind River. He wrote the second Sicario. I mean, to say nothing of his television, which we're going to say a lot about Yellowstone, 1883, which I didn't see. Mayor of Kingstown, which people like, I did not see. That one's just like, okay, Tulsa king, no interest, 1923. I'm in it and I'm liking it. Lioness, which again, I binged the first season awesome. And Landman, I mean, this guy, what a run.
- [58:17]
A
It's insane, right? And he does a lot of him. I don't know how he does it.
- [58:21]
B
What a run.
- [58:22]
A
And now he. Then he puts himself into these shows, too. He acts in the shows. He always gives himself one of the best parts, which is kind of funny.
- [58:29]
B
He acted in Sons of Anarchy.
- [58:31]
A
Oh, I didn't know that. Okay. It is. Yeah. It's hard to believe how you can do all these shows at once. Some people do, like one show their whole life and that's it.
- [58:38]
B
He's very prolific.
- [58:40]
A
Yes.
- [58:41]
B
All right.
- [58:41]
A
You know, they tell you, like, when you become successful, you have to learn how to say no. Not him.
- [58:46]
B
No. Please don't say no. Keep, Keep going.
- [58:49]
A
Same with Kevin Hart.
- [58:50]
B
Keep going.
- [58:51]
A
Any commercial. We have to say thank you to all of our listeners. We, we, we talked this morning. We had a, a YouTube show come out on Christmas. YouTube and podcast come out on Christmas. And we had so many people listen and watch. It was amazing. Great feedback from people. We have the best audience.
- [59:09]
B
We have the best audience. So. All right, in conclusion, 2024 was a good year for the stock market. I hope everybody made a lot of money. Let's not plan on making. Let's not count on making as much money in 2025. But if we do great, if we.
- [59:22]
A
Have another 20% year this year, the dot com bubble, like, we're getting there.
- [59:27]
B
I'm telling you, if you have another 25% year, I'm going to turn straight outright. Bearish. Okay. We're here in December. We're up 25%.
- [59:34]
A
The funny thing is that would put us at 1997.
- [59:39]
B
Oh, oh, oh. Then there would be two more years. I, I take it back.
- [59:43]
A
Yeah.
- [59:43]
B
Okay. Really and truly. Hit the inbox. We love to see you there. Animal spirits@the compoundnews.com thank you to our incredible team. Duncan, John, Daniel, Sean, Nicole, Chart Kid, Rob, Graham. Hell of a year. Best to everyone in the new year. Thank you very much for riding with us and we will see you next time.