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Michael Batnik
Today's Animal Spirits Talk. Your book is brought to you by Motley Fool Asset management. Go to fooletfs.com to learn more about the Motley Fool 100 Index ETF Ticker TMFC. Again, that's fooletf.com to learn more. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about.
Ben Carlson
Markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Rithulz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. On today's show, we talk with Charlie Travers, the portfolio manager at the Motley Fool Asset Management. Ben, I heard one of the Gardner brothers years ago talking on a podcast. It was Patrick's, I can't remember. And one of the things that stood out to me or stuck with me was their ability to think long term. And I guess it didn't stick because I don't have the ability to stick with stocks for the long run. I mean, index stocks in the long run, but not individual names. And do you think that you could learn how to do that?
Michael Batnik
I feel like that's something that you're probably born with.
Ben Carlson
I can't imagine my personality just buying and holding winners and letting them run and, and just being like, yeah, what, the stock's down 40%, but I still believe in it for the long term. Like, I know I'd just be like, you idiot, was that 100? You bought it at 10, now it's at 60, you dumb idiot. Like, I just know that my personality is not suited to that sort of investment because all of these names pick any of the big winners over time, literally doesn't matter which one it was. They've all had a monster drawdown. Even like something as boring as Walmart.
Michael Batnik
Well, imagine holding Nvidia, Netflix or Facebook in the last three or four years and you essentially had, you lost 2/3 of the value of your money.
Ben Carlson
But that's.
Michael Batnik
But all of those.
Ben Carlson
But it's even worse than that because let's say that you put $100 or $1,000, whatever it is, into Netflix, you know, 15 years ago and you're up 37x. I'm making that up. Could you imagine that 2/3 drawdown that we experienced over the last couple of.
Michael Batnik
Years, right from a higher Asset level.
Ben Carlson
So you. In dollars, you might have lost 13 times your original investment.
Michael Batnik
So to your point, I think this is why it's so important to find.
Ben Carlson
Only pick the winners. Oh, never mind.
Michael Batnik
Find an investment strategy that really fits your personality. Right. If you. If you try to run a. This is why I think the people who've tried to be the next Warren Buffett and probably don't have the same temperament or style, you know, as him. Just the ability to stick with something for seven decades or however long he's had. Like, no one has that ability.
Ben Carlson
I don't think if you're on FanDuel, you're probably not holding a stock for 16 years.
Michael Batnik
So maybe the point is that you figure out a fund or a strategy that will hold them for you so you don't have to do it individually. And so I think that's what. So this Motley Fool 100 Index ETF, they basically said, we're taking the best stock picks of our analysts. And people probably said, I don't want to go through the role of figuring out which ones of these I'm gonna pick. You do it for me. And then they market cap weighted this.
Ben Carlson
Well, guess what? $1.24 billion in this fund. Clearly, people are saying that.
Michael Batnik
Yeah. So the idea. Yeah, makes sense. Like, have. I'm gonna buy a fund of someone else who's gonna make sure that I hold these stocks for me.
Ben Carlson
Yeah.
Michael Batnik
So anyway, interesting conversation. We talked to Charlie Travers today from Motley Fool Asset Management. Here is our talk with Charlie.
Ben Carlson
We're joined by Charlie Travers. Today is the portfolio manager at the Motley Fool Asset Management. Charlie, welcome to the show.
Charlie Travers
Thank you guys for having me.
Ben Carlson
Of course. All right, so we're here today to talk about The Motley Fool 100 Index ETF. The ticker is TMFC. But before we dive into the methodology and the backstory and all that good stuff, what is the linkage between Motley Fool Asset Management and Motley Fool? Because I'm very familiar with Motley Fool. You guys have been around forever, have created an incredible brand in the industry, but less still familiar with Motley Fool Asset Management.
Charlie Travers
Yeah, that's a great question, Michael. A lot of people know The Motley Fool LLC, the publishing business, which has been around for 30 years now with its subscription investment newsletters, podcasts, radio show, et cetera. They are our parent company. So we are a wholly owned subsidiary of that business. And we manage six ETFs. Three of those are passive ETF products based on indexes created by the parent company and their investment intellectual property. And then three of our ETFs are actively managed. But yes, so that we are set up as a regulated business that allows us to manage money for individual investors who are fans of the Motley Fool. That's where our origins came. And we started this side of the business right in the aftermath of the financial crisis where a lot of the subscribers were looking for some help with their portfolios.
Michael Batnik
One of the gotcha moments that people always have when they talk about indexing versus active for the S and P, they'll say, hey, the S and P is not actually a passive product because there's a committee who chooses the stocks that come in and out every year, right? Then there's also other passively managed funds that are more quantitatively based. Where do your passive indexes fall on that? Do you have a group of people who are making decisions on these or is it more rules based?
Charlie Travers
So the three index based ETFs we have are all created from the Motley Fool's publishing group and their analysts who are making stock recommendations. So stock picks that are going out to the subscriber base, like in their flagship product, Stock Advisor or rule breakers, etc. Are assembled into a market cap weighted index. And there's three of those indices. The Motley Fool 100 being the top 100 companies weighted by market cap. And then the Motley fool next would be a small and mid cap version. So be companies number 101 down to 300. And then there's a capital efficiency overlay as well, which is more of a large cap product as well. It's not just looking at companies based on if it's an active wreck and it's got a large size, but it's also tying in the profitability growth relative to the assets that the company has. So it's kind of layering fundamental metrics on top of just size and whether or not somebody at the company likes it.
Ben Carlson
It makes sense that you all package this into an investable product because for decades people have been reading the fool and for stock picks or whatever and the idea that, hey, wait a minute, why am I picking all the stocks that you guys recommend recommending? Just wrap it up and I'll just buy that. So for sake of ease, it makes a lot of sense. Could you share a little bit about about the success in terms of size of the assets that you all manage?
Charlie Travers
So in total, across our six ETFs, we are at about $2.2 billion. And the flagship TMFC the Motley Fool 100 is at 1.2 billion. So it's coming up on its seven year mark in January. So a month away from that. So it's, you know, to get, to get to that asset level in seven years is a mark we're pretty proud of.
Ben Carlson
It is funny. We're about to talk about the methodology and the construction and I understand for compliance purposes, you know, you have to say what you have to say in terms of this is a passive index or, or it's an index tracking. Right? Because it is an index, I guess. But of course like the idea that it's passive and there's not actual decisions being made is kind of, I guess it is what it is. I'm not here to set regulations, but this is, this is a strategy that's not literally actively managed in the sense that like it's not discretion, you're not like, you know, turning over the portfolio a lot. But certainly it's not passive. You're making decisions.
Charlie Travers
Yes, it's correct. And so the point you made a minute ago about newsletter subscribers getting two picks a month from Stock Advisor, maybe another two from Rule breakers, etc. Over a course of a year or two, that's dozens of stock picks. And so the idea of what does somebody do with all of those names? And it gets hard to manage. So when we package those into an index that somebody could buy with one ETF ticker, it brings a lot of simplicity. But it also gets to the point of how is that index created? And it is off of all of those stock picks. If it's a buy rec that goes out to the public, it's index eligible. But there's also an internal database that our quant team manages. So It's. We've got 40 analysts on the publishing side of the business following these stocks making recommendations and internally they can flag what do they like, what do they not like. And then the system is also like, okay, is this analyst good at consumer names, are they good at tech, are they good at energy? And then it's internally weighting their conviction on those names based on their track record in the space that they're flagging certain companies as buys and sells. And the end result of all of that plus the public facing recommendations allows to create this index which is kind of actively managed, no client monies directly be managed. But it is an index that is forward looking based on fundamental stock research. It's based on conviction of what the analysts like today. And that differentiates it from a lot of Indices which are just based on size or other factors.
Michael Batnik
My sense of the types of stocks that have been associated with Motley fool, especially with the Gardner brothers, going back to when they started it and reading some of their stuff, is they have always been looking for growth stocks. So are these products similarly growth oriented and that they're looking for growth growth stocks, or is there a different bent here?
Charlie Travers
You are right. The Motley fool is known, I think, mostly as a growth investment philosophy. But that said, there's been a lot of influence by Warren Buffett over the years. Less so on the valuation side, but more on the side of owning high quality value compounding businesses for the long term, even out to decades, and letting those businesses and the ownership of them create wealth over time. So we're not looking at quarterly earnings so much or trying to sector rotate or anything like that. It's find those great high quality businesses and then hold on to them. And I think that's really been the key to the success of the products over the years.
Ben Carlson
But what did you guys do on Wednesday during the press conference? Did you get a little bit scared? You whack anything? I'm just kidding. So you mentioned Buffett and I know that you don't share his investment philosophy that closely because you all are more aligned with the growth companies. However, one key characteristic that you guys have done a tremendous job of over the years is riding the winners, which is something that is not suited for my personality. I was talking recently about this. I think I know too much of the data and the literature on the history of stock market returns. And so I don't ever have the conviction to buy a stock and let it, you know, compound. Compound. Because I get scared, right? I'm like, well, what if this is the next that or the next this? And where does that discipline and conviction come from? If you have something that you're up, I mean literally 4x7x on how do you not look backwards and continue to look forwards?
Charlie Travers
I think one of the keys for an analyst is to not just look at the stock price and how much you're up or down, but look at is your thesis playing out like why did you own that company in the first place? Is the stock up because the things happened that you wanted to happen, or is it up for just sector reasons, for example, or rate moves or whatever? And I think it's important as an investor to always check in on, on your company and how it's doing relative to the reasons you owned it in the first place. So yes, you could be up 5x and maybe that's a top. If it's trading at 60 times sales or something crazy, I think you have to give that a hard look. But if the valuation remains reasonable because the business is increasing value along with the stock price increasing, that's a separate conversation.
Michael Batnik
So how much turnover is in a fund like this? Are you looking at this once a year, kind of like the S and P does, or is it a little more actively managed where on different periods you're looking into potentially replacing companies that analysts have either decided to buy or sell?
Charlie Travers
Well, the full 100 index ETF constitutes quarterly. So that index has additions and subtractions every quarter. Typically it's been about two names come in, give or take, and maybe two come out. So the turnover on a quarterly basis is not dramatic. And that's based on what new recommendations are being made right now based on analyst conviction. And then it's also what they might want to be selling out of. So it does keep the index fresh without churning it too much.
Ben Carlson
So I'm looking at the top 10 holdings and this is just to level six we haven't spoken about. And maybe I'll just tell the studio what. So what is, what is the general philosophy here like? If you had to describe at a high level what investors can expect to get out of owning the motley for 100 index, what is the overarching philosophy?
Charlie Travers
I would say it is the 100 largest companies that are high conviction picks within the Motley Fool. It's how it's created. The actual methodology is the 150 highest conviction ideas right now. Then it's market cap weighted and it's just the top 100. So it's going to be from a style box perspective, domestic large cap, and it's typically going to be in the growth column.
Ben Carlson
So Ben and I were talking earlier today that the top 10 names in the S&P are now 40% of the index. That looks over diversified compared to you guys. The top 10 holdings in the Motley Fool 100 Index are 57 at least as of as of September. The end of September 2024 are 57.7% of the overall index. So you all are not shy about placing large bets and riding those bets.
Charlie Travers
There's a very much a let the winners run philosophy at play. But the index did have to put in place some Rick compliance rebalancing. NASDAQ has had to do the same thing in recent years where the number of concentrated positions, which is 5% weights or larger, cannot add up. To be over 50% of the ETF. And so index adjustment methodologies did have to come in place for the full 100, as it has for other providers as well, just because those mega cap names have run so much in recent years.
Michael Batnik
So you had to trim some of those names then?
Charlie Travers
Yeah, yeah, for sure.
Ben Carlson
So I know you're all not a macro shop and we're going to get into some of the individual stuff, but how surprised are you? I mean, 2022 people sort of in recent conversations have been talking about the market as if that wasn't just a few years ago and that we just lived through a really nasty reset. Like, oh, it's been up only. Oh really? What about three years ago? So, but in fairness, the market bottomed on December 31, 2022. And when I say the market, I'm saying specifically the large cap growth names that you all focus on bottomed on the last day of 2022. And really since then it has been for the most part up only. There's been a few hiccups and a few shakeouts along the way, as there always are. But are you surprised that part of the reason that these stocks fell in the first place was the tightening cycle? And obviously we're on the other side of that now, but the long duration yields are still at the same place they were when these stocks got crushed in the first place. So part of the story is obviously AI right, like had ChatGPT not come to market in November of that year, who knows where these names would be? Right. Maybe they are a lot lower. So I'm rambling without a question. So I guess to, to, to ask a question, are you surprised at the strength in these names, specifically large cap growth, over the last call, 24 months?
Charlie Travers
I'm going to waffle and say yes and no. The reason I am surprised is because the idea that we have two and $3 trillion market cap companies is almost insane to me. Like that's just like such a large number that one company could be worth. We have many of them now and now we have many of them. Like that is kind of a crazy thing. But on the flip side, that's where the earnings growth has been. The competitive advantages for those companies seems almost insurmountable. Like the old Warren Buffett adage of can you take a billion dollars and replicate the business almost seems quaint relative to the scale of those big tech names.
Ben Carlson
Yeah. How much did OpenAI just raise? Like, yeah, multiple billions.
Charlie Travers
Yeah, something like that. But then if you look outside the big tech Names in the S and P. It's not like the consumer staples and the other blue chips are necessarily cheap either. You've got companies growing less than 5% a year with 30 and 40 P Es on them.
Ben Carlson
So I think Costco is probably the poster child for that.
Charlie Travers
Yeah, yeah, yeah. So it's like okay, I can understand if someone's squeamish about large tech valuations, but where are you going to go? And that would be like my follow up question.
Ben Carlson
So wait, what do you say when people say so?
Charlie Travers
Yeah, so I think where we're at is we're not trying to time the market around whether it's valuations or recession concerns or are rates going to actually go up next year? They could, I don't know. But I think it's folly to try and guess what the stock market is going to do next year, any year. Like if we were sitting here a year ago, we would have had the same conversation about mega cap tech, how much it is in the index, what are the valuations and then boom, look at the year we just had.
Ben Carlson
Right. Exact same conversations. You're right.
Charlie Travers
Yeah.
Michael Batnik
So if you look at just the sector components of the fund here, you're overweight tech. Your overweight consumers communication services basically is also tech for all intents and purposes. And then you're underweight. More of the defensive names, the consumer staples and energy and materials and utility. I guess it is, it's almost like an overweight the new era and an underweight the old era in terms of, of you know, these asset heavy companies. You don't, you're tend to be underweight. There is. Is that more of a forward thinking viewpoint you think that your analysts are taking?
Charlie Travers
Yeah, it's a big part of the fundamental research process is what's the 5 to 10 year trajectory of the business and against the competitive landscape that those businesses have. Pick the winners and hold on to them.
Ben Carlson
So what would, what could change? May I ask you a hypothetical? What would have to happen for some of these names to turn over given how long term a view you guys hold?
Charlie Travers
Disintermediation. You mentioned OpenAI, a big private company coming out of nowhere into the public markets and disrupting things. I think some of those names. I've always been a little squeamish about hardware based companies so I don't necessarily want to mention any names but you can think of who I might be referring to there. It's just hardware has traditionally not been as competitively advantaged as software tends to commoditize. Et cetera. So something like that. I'm not again, I'm just the passive ETF manager on this. I'm not picking these stocks. But that might be something that could change sometime in the future.
Michael Batnik
So there's a lot of different routes you can take. Analysts that cover these companies, some of them are like forensic accountants that really dig into the numbers and the financial statements and look for things that are, that are maybe mispriced. Others like to talk to management teams and talk to suppliers and talk to competitors. What is the general way that your analysts approach following these companies?
Charlie Travers
I think one thing that is maybe a little more unique for our group here is focusing on the people, the culture of the company. Why do people want to come work at a business? Why do they stick around once they're there For a lot of these companies, you know, it used to say it'd be the folks walking in and out of the door every day are who make your business. What's the source of your competitive advantage? And now that we're mostly remote, that's a little different. But it's getting at some of the softer factors outside of the financial statements and trying to get a view of does this leadership team have the vision, are they executing, are they attracting the talent to execute?
Michael Batnik
So more qualitative instead of quantitative?
Charlie Travers
Yeah, I would, yes, for sure.
Ben Carlson
I saw a quote yesterday, Benedict Evans, a technologist, did a presentation that he called AI Eats the World. He does one at the end of every year, for the following year and for 2025 it's called AI eats the world. And there's a quote in there that has me thinking it's from Michael Corleone. If anything in this life is certain, if history has taught us anything, it is that you can kill anyone. And as that quote relates to some of the tech giants today, on the one hand, yeah, to this, to this quote, you know, everything's, everything has cycles, everything that once was at the top has, has peaked at some point. And I would never say that the environment that we're in today is so radically different than anything history has seen. But on the one hand, I mean, there's obviously the but. The but here is that what we're seeing today has, has never happened in terms of the moat, the run rate, the earnings estimates and then keeping exceeding them. New, I was about to say new verticals, just new businesses entirely that these companies have gotten into. Amazon is now a full fledged media company and an ad company. On top of that, Michael is arguing.
Michael Batnik
It'S for John Templeton right now.
Ben Carlson
Yeah. So will we be having these conversations in 10 years about the same companies or is history going to prove to be the same as it always is, that there is always turnover?
Charlie Travers
I would say if we looked back at each decade, say going back 30 years, a small number stay, you know, maybe two, three, four stay and then six or seven of them turn over. We don't necessarily know what those new six or seven are. And if you do, you're going to have a great career as an analyst. But some of the ones that stay, you know, the ones that were there, say in the dot com bubble and are still there today, the big tech names, how many times have they had to reinvent themselves to do this? How many times were they absolutely hated by the market? And I'll say specifically, I'll call it a name here. Microsoft was absolutely hated by the market for a long time. But you know, it's, they're either going to reinvent themselves, they're going to find these new market opportunities and succeed, or they're going to drop off the list.
Ben Carlson
It just seems so hard to imagine like Amazon being disrupted, you know, and I know like forever is a long time, but man. So there was, there was a great chart that I think is from Ned Davis that showed $1 invested in the largest company and versus the S& P. And investing in the single largest company had historically been a terrible idea, right? Because all of the future earnings had already been discounted by the time it got to the top of the mountain. And that broke once Apple took the throne. And it just seems that these giants, at the risk of sounding like, you know, a permanent plateau, et cetera, these giants of today are fundamentally and structurally different than the giants of yesteryear.
Charlie Travers
Certainly have a lot more profits to them. I think some of the giants of yesteryear, depending on when the measurements taken place, could have just been big because of a hype cycle, you know, trading at 90 times earnings or something absurd. Didn't necessarily have the business growth to justify that.
Michael Batnik
Charlie, to your point, I looked at that list too. I think I went back to 1980 and did it every five years, the top 10 names. And you're right, every 10 years it was maybe two or three that would stick sometime, all 10 would be gone. Like the one, if you look at the early 1980s, it was all energy stocks, right? Because the 1970s was so good for commodities. And that is, that is the history of this, is that, you know, there will be these companies that seem like they are invincible. GE was A perfect example. And then it fell out. I know the one risk that people have been saying forever with these stocks is well, what if the government comes and breaks them up? And it doesn't seem like that's happening any time soon. Right. That's the worry people have been having for 10 years. It seems that just they be getting stronger and more of a stranglehold on these industries. My question is, so these are the 100 largest stocks that you follow. It has a mega cap bent based on the market cap nature of it. Right. Could you see a scenario where your analysts decide these mega cap big stocks, they've hit our targets, we're happy. It's going to be a harder hurdle to jump over. And you go down the cap table, micro cap table at all it is more mid caps or smaller stocks. Could you see that scenario happening? Or do you think this index will always have more of a mega cap?
Ben Carlson
They only play 80s. Joel.
Charlie Travers
I think two comments there. First, small caps have underperformed for something like eight years now. So I would understand if a group of analysts started sniffing around in smaller and mid cap companies for opportunities. I have no idea if that's going to happen here, but I think because by definition the index is the top one heart, 100 largest by market cap. It's probably always going to skew towards the bigger companies. But that said, as a market cap weighted index, what is company number 30 today, five years from now can climb into the top 10, which is kind.
Michael Batnik
Of what Nvidia did basically.
Charlie Travers
Exactly. Yeah.
Ben Carlson
And Broadcom as well.
Charlie Travers
That's right.
Ben Carlson
So if you had to guess, and I know that this is like really not what you do, so probably a bad question, but do you get concerned and again, this has nothing to do with your strategy, but just talking to Charlie, do you, do you get concerned that everybody seems to be on the same side of how 2025 is going to pan out? If you rewind to a year ago, coming into 2024, the consensus on the S and P was flat for the year, which I think has never happened before. And Ben and I were talking about the pod today. If you look at the 12 month change in analyst estimates, it's never been higher, meaning everybody who was bearish turned bullish. So you see where I'm going with this. Like are we, are we priced for perfection? How much, how much bigger can Nvidia get?
Charlie Travers
Right. So, so you're saying right now the consensus is bullish for 25?
Ben Carlson
Oh yeah.
Charlie Travers
I just want to make sure I understand. Yeah, absolutely. I I would personally take the under, but that's.
Ben Carlson
Maybe I'll just take the under. On what? What exactly?
Charlie Travers
On the consensus. Yeah, yeah. I think the history would say, what is it, three years of 20 plus in a row has only happened one time in 100 years. So.
Michael Batnik
Yeah, you're basically banking on a repeat of the 90s.
Charlie Travers
Yeah, that's exactly right. And I just see maybe more of a reversion to the mean. You know, I think we're always in the camp that one year out of every three or four is going to be a down year. So I'm not saying it's happening this year, but I would say I'm under consensus.
Ben Carlson
So do you talk to the analysts that are making some of the recommendations for the index or is that not your responsibility?
Charlie Travers
Yeah, because we're regulated and they're not. We can have absolutely no contact with the analysts over there. Just because any sort of risks about us knowing what they're going to publish ahead of time or them getting any whiff of what we're buying or selling would be a big no, no. So we have pretty strict communications barriers between my team that manages the ETFs and the analysts on the publishing side of the business.
Michael Batnik
And are they, are your analysts all generalists or do they have specific sectors and types of companies that they follow?
Charlie Travers
It's a mix of both. We tend to attract an eclectic mix of talent. There are people who came from specialist backgrounds. Like I came to the company from a healthcare background. Started following biotechnology stocks back in the day when I first joined the company. But they're definitely, I'd say, more generalists than not here.
Ben Carlson
All right, so let's talk about the other side of the ledger. You mentioned healthcare. Are people too pessimistic on health care? If you look at XLV or XBI or any of these ETFs and you divide it by the S and P on a relative basis, these things are trading like, like trash, like nobody wants them.
Charlie Travers
Health care has been rough for a couple of years and I think there's a lot of opportunity to find good companies in this space. I think there's always a need for innovation to happen. I mean, we could probably rattle off 10 diseases off the top of our head that need cures pretty desperately for them.
Ben Carlson
Baldness.
Charlie Travers
Yeah. And I think also I would suspect if there's changes at the ftc, which might ease some M and A activity, that'd be good for a lot of the small mid cap healthcare, med device type companies, biotech, etcetera. Where M and A activity has been a little depressed.
Michael Batnik
All right, Charlie, if people want to learn more, where do we send them?
Charlie Travers
Full etfs.com perfect.
Michael Batnik
Thanks very much. All right, thank you to Charlie. Remember, check out full etf's.com to learn more. Email us animalspiritscompoundnews.com and we will see you next time.
Animal Spirits Podcast Summary: "Talk Your Book: Conviction in Growth Investing"
Release Date: December 30, 2024
Host: Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson
Guest: Charlie Travers, Portfolio Manager at Motley Fool Asset Management
In the December 30, 2024 episode of the Animal Spirits Podcast, hosts Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson delve into the realm of growth investing with Charlie Travers, the portfolio manager at Motley Fool Asset Management. The conversation centers around the Motley Fool 100 Index ETF (TMFC), exploring its methodology, investment philosophy, and performance.
Charlie Travers begins by clarifying the relationship between Motley Fool Asset Management and the parent company, The Motley Fool LLC. Established as a wholly owned subsidiary, Motley Fool Asset Management manages six ETFs—three passive based on proprietary indices and three actively managed. This structure was launched post the financial crisis to assist subscribers in managing their portfolios more effectively.
Charlie Travers [04:18]:
"We are a wholly owned subsidiary of [The Motley Fool LLC], managing ETFs based on our investment intellectual property."
The primary focus shifts to the Motley Fool 100 Index ETF (TMFC). Charlie explains that the ETF aggregates the top 100 stock picks from Motley Fool's analysts, weighted by market capitalization. This approach offers investors a consolidated and simplified method to invest in the Motley Fool's high-conviction stocks without managing each position individually.
Ben Carlson [02:31]:
"Only pick the winners. Oh, never mind."
Charlie Travers [09:33]:
"It is the 100 largest companies that are high conviction picks within the Motley Fool."
The Motley Fool's investment strategy is deeply rooted in growth investing, influenced by Warren Buffett's principles of owning high-quality, compounding businesses for the long term. Unlike traditional passive funds, the Motley Fool ETFs incorporate active decision-making based on analyst conviction and fundamental research.
Charlie Travers [09:51]:
"We're not looking at quarterly earnings or trying to sector rotate. It's about finding those great high-quality businesses and holding onto them."
The Motley Fool 100 Index is curated from the Motley Fool's subscription services, including Stock Advisor and Rule Breakers. With over 40 analysts contributing to stock recommendations, the ETF reflects a market cap-weighted index of the top 100 companies deemed most promising. The selection process involves evaluating the conviction of analysts and the fundamental strength of each company.
Charlie Travers [08:00]:
"It is an index that is forward-looking based on fundamental stock research and the conviction of what the analysts like today."
A significant characteristic of the TMFC is its concentration in mega-cap stocks. As of September 2024, the top 10 holdings constitute 57.7% of the overall index, reflecting a "let the winners run" philosophy. To comply with regulations and prevent excessive concentration, the fund undergoes quarterly rebalancing, typically adjusting two names in and out of the index each quarter.
Charlie Travers [14:10]:
"There's a very much a let the winners run philosophy at play... index adjustment methodologies had to come in place because those mega cap names have run so much in recent years."
The discussion highlights the resilience of large-cap growth stocks, particularly in the tech sector. Charlie expresses amazement at the inclusion of companies with market caps exceeding $2 trillion, attributing their success to substantial earnings growth and competitive advantages. The conversation also touches on the challenges of predicting market movements, with Charlie advocating for a long-term, conviction-based approach rather than short-term market timing.
Charlie Travers [16:07]:
"The giants of today are fundamentally and structurally different than the giants of yesteryear."
Motley Fool's analysts employ a holistic approach to evaluate companies, focusing not only on quantitative metrics but also on qualitative factors such as company culture, leadership, and employee retention. This emphasis on the human element aims to assess a company's ability to sustain innovation and competitive advantage over the long term.
Charlie Travers [19:28]:
"Focusing on the people, the culture of the company... does this leadership team have the vision, are they executing, are they attracting the talent to execute?"
The TMFC is overweight in technology and consumer communication services, reflecting a belief in their long-term growth potential. Conversely, the ETF is underweight in defensive sectors like consumer staples, energy, and utilities. Charlie acknowledges the challenges of sector concentration but maintains confidence in the selected sectors' ability to deliver sustained growth.
Michael Batnik [17:07]:
"You're overweight the new era and underweight the old era in terms of asset-heavy companies."
The conversation explores the current bullish consensus for 2025 and the potential risks of being "priced for perfection". Charlie advises caution, noting that historical trends suggest a reversion to the mean and the inevitability of market fluctuations. The ETF's methodology remains adaptable, allowing for index turnover in response to market disruptions or changes in company fundamentals.
Charlie Travers [26:38]:
"History would say, what is it, three years of 20 plus in a row has only happened one time in 100 years."
The episode concludes with Charlie Travers urging listeners to explore more about the ETF offerings at fulletfs.com. The discussion underscores the importance of alignment between investment strategies and investor temperament, advocating for a disciplined, conviction-driven approach to growth investing.
Charlie Travers [28:56]:
"Check out fulletfs.com to learn more."
The "Conviction in Growth Investing" episode of the Animal Spirits Podcast provides a comprehensive look into the Motley Fool 100 Index ETF, emphasizing a strategic blend of growth investing and analyst-driven stock selection. Charlie Travers offers valuable insights into maintaining investment discipline and leveraging quality research to navigate the complexities of the modern market.
For more information, listeners are encouraged to visit fulletfs.com.