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A
Today's Animal Spirits Talk youk Book is brought to you by Janice Henderson. Investors. Go to Janashenderson.com to learn more about their whole suite of securitized ETFs, including J, AAA and JSI. That's Janicehenderson.com to learn more.
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B
Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.
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A
Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Michael, I think you could make the case that this has been like one of the weirdest, probably the weirdest decade ever for fixed income. And, and it's been kind of a light bulb moment for a lot of people. Yeah, like, oh, I have to like expand my horizons here. Yeah, people got smoked. And we've talked to a lot of different fixed income products over the years on Tuckerbook. And I gotta be honest, the CLO stuff was still a little over my head in some ways because I feel like it gets lumped in with CDOs. It's like, I know what those are. Michael Lewis taught me. Right. Securitize stuff. I think it took a long time for people to maybe be more acclimated with this and it seems like they are now very acclimated. So we talked to Michael Oughlin. Mike is an executive director and the ETF client product specialist for Janus Henderson Investors. And they have the biggest CLO ETF in the game. Which, let's see. So JAA. JAA is the name. It's a Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF. As far as I can tell from Y charts, $27 billion under management. And this thing is not that. This thing has only been around since late 2020.
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C
That is a lot of money.
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A
It's a massive, massive. And obviously they, they. The timing could not have been better for them.
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C
Well, I think the story is clean. AAA rated, no defaults in the history of the asset class. 50 basis points spread over corporate bonds. Corporate bonds, Yep. Very, very, very little volatility.
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A
If you look at the. The line on this chart is.
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C
Yeah, yeah, it's, it's a smooth ride. So I get it.
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A
Yes. And, and to be honest, it's, it's not very easily understood I asked, I asked Mike. Why, why, why does this product deserve a spread over other types of bonds? Well, it's harder to understand. It's more complicated.
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C
It's the, it's the lack of understanding. Premium.
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A
Yes. Which makes sense to me. So anyway, we talked all about J aaa. We talked about jsi, which is their securitized etf, all this stuff and how securitization works. I think it's worth getting into, like, this is the kind of conversation where it's worth getting into the weeds for because this stuff is not easy to understand. So here is our conversation with Michael Oughlin from Janus Henderson Investors.
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C
Mike, welcome to the show.
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D
Great to be here. First time guest, longtime listener, really excited. Thank you for having me.
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C
All right, well, appreciate that. Works out as well because the Janice Henderson Triple A CLO ETF ticker is ja. It's, it's, it's J with three A's. J triple A.
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D
We say J triple A.
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C
Okay, there we go. Correct me if I'm wrong, this has got to be the biggest cielo ETF in the market, right?
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D
It is, yeah. Yeah, By a factor of a couple of times.
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C
Yeah. Yeah. So, so you guys launched us In I think 2021, maybe like 2020, and it's like gone vertical. The total assets under management, $27 billion, up from a base of, you know, zero, I guess, unless you converted it. So I don't think you did. Why is there so much money in this thing? What is it about the triple A CLO that investors find so damn attractive?
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D
So I think it's helpful to start by just unpacking the attributes. So if you're looking at J AAA today, it's roughly 5% yield. Since inception at the end of 2020, the volatility has been around 1%. It's floating rate, so there's no interest rate duration. And in the history of US Capital markets, there's never been a default in this asset class. So 2008, 2020, 2022, period, full stop. There's never been a default in A AAA C lo and so that overall combined set of attributes has been very attractive. You know, obviously right after or not too long after we launched it, the Fed, you know, engaged in sort of the fastest rate hiking cycle we've seen in, you know, a couple of generations. And so that put the, the yield at a, at a very attractive level also. And advisors can just find a lot of uses for this in a portfolio, whether it's step out of cash, earning more than a money market, whether it's rotating from other parts of fixed income where spreads are kind of tight today, or whether it's just trying to reduce sensitivity to rates. We've seen advisors find many different use cases for that, you know, attractive attribute profile.
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A
I have a couple of follow ups. So how long has this asset been in Asset Classic? How long have close been around for?
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D
They've been around for a few decades. Traditionally this was a more institutional asset class. Oftentimes insurance companies have been long time big players in this, banks have been big players in this asset class. But three decades or so.
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C
Let's stick at the high level before we drill into what the hell is even a CLL and what's underneath the hood. I'm looking at the brochure that you guys have and I'm looking at one of the charts you have says compelling yield potential and it says CLOs are trading 51 basis points over credit. To which I say 51 basis points. What is this competitive yield for ants? I mean that's not a lot. But to your point, to your point, this is a legitimate asset class that's been time tested. I think it gets a bad rap for the, for the misunderstandings about it getting lumped up with a CDO squared and all that sort of stuff which we could talk about. But if you look at the chart of, of jaa like the total return price there is very very little volatility. So even though you're, I'm, I'm sort of kidding here, only picking up 51 basis points, there's no, there's no free, free, free, free free lunch. But this looks pretty compelling with where spreads are today.
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D
If you were looking at it versus call it like money market or other ultra shorts, you know you're getting about 130 basis points over money market today. I actually last week I pulled up the AAA corporate index in Bloomberg which was spread to treasury of 35 basis points. So you're getting like 100 over AAA corpse. And even if you looked at triple B corps again as of last week in Bloomberg, you know that was about 95 over Treasury. So in this asset class you own a AAA CLO and you out yield a triple B corporate bond or that index by call it, you know, 35 basis points. That's pretty attractive to your point with very very low volatility.
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A
So we've made a bunch of comparisons to different areas of the bond market, credit and money markets and the AG or whatever. Like what do you find this as a comparison to. Because it's Obviously it sounds to me like it's, it's floating rate debt. Right. So it's, the maturity is obviously relatively short, I would imagine. Like what's a good comp for this? Something else in the fixed income arena, like what would be this be a
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D
replacement for, I guess most commonly other forms of ultra short bond is, I think the, the most common sourcing area or for folks who are looking to take that step out of cash for a long time. We were in the Morningstar ultra short bond category. Morningstar recently created securitized categories themselves. So now they've, they broke out securitized as a, as different asset classes. So they moved us as part of that. But forever we were part of the ultra short category. And I think that's the first place that people look.
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A
What does that maturity look like?
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D
There's no obviously like underlying interest rate duration. The legal maturity of a cielo. And it might be helpful to like unpack, you know exactly what a cielo is and how it functions. Can be anywhere from like 11 to 13 years. Typically they don't, they don't live that long. A typical realized deal life might be, you know, seven or eight years. The underlying loans are typically five to seven year loans. Um, so it, it, it kind of depends exactly where in the structure we're talking there.
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A
But, but they act more short term because the rate's moving, correct?
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D
Yeah, yeah. So these are spread product, but they're floating rate. And so the reason they have no interest rate duration is because there's, you know, the, the rate on these floats. And so every three months in January, April, July and October, you get resets of the yield.
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C
All right, let's see how good you are. Mr. Laughlin, what in God's name is a CLO?
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D
Yeah, so it stands for collateralized loan obligation. And so this is part of the broader securitized market, which sometimes that word can have negative connotation when it really shouldn't. It just means to create a security. And so the underlying of a clo, the underlying collateral is a senior secured bank loan to a US Company. If you actually own a floating rate mutual fund or a floating rate etf, you, you own the same collateral. And in J A, our product, we only use the broadly syndicated loans. So we don't, we don't have any private credit based close in J A. So these are broadly syndicated senior secured bank loans to US Companies. Your clients would know it's American Airlines, Bass Pro Shops. Right. Those are, those are the types of companies that would be the loans that comprise the clo. And just for reference, it's actually quite a large market. So the bank loan market in the US is like 1.6 trillion and about 70%, 7 0% of all close today, or excuse me, all bank loans today get packaged into CLOs, making the CLO market like around 1.1 trillion. So, so quite big. But a Cielo issuer, not Janus, but there's about 140 firms in the US that issue close today will take a pool of these corporate loans and securitize it into a clo. And when they do that, you'll have, imagine you have $1 billion as your pool of collateral. Your underlying loans, you'll end up with a stack. So you'll have a triple A tranche of that clo, a double A, a single, a triple B, a double B and an equity tranche. And so J AAA specifically buys that equity tranche. But long answer to a short question. A CLO is a, is a pool of securitized bank loans.
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A
So, so why would a, why would a corporation borrow this way as opposed to just issuing normal corporate debt?
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D
They may not be able to access the corporate bond market. They may, they may have sort of more attractive financing in the bank loan market. There can be different reasons within their own capital structure that they may choose to go the loan route versus the high yield bond route. The, you know, when we say triple A credit quality, it's the structure that provides that credit quality. The underlying loans themselves are no, again no different than what you would find in sort of a floating rate mutual fund or etf. They themselves are generally below investment grade loans.
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C
How does this differ from like the bank loan ETFs? Is this only taking the top slice in terms of like the least risky?
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D
So in a bank loan etf, what you physically own is the loan itself. In J aaa, you own the AAA bond of a clo. And the difference there is, back to my example, imagine you took $1 billion of corporate loans as your collateral pool. The AAA tranche would maybe be $650 million. So you're over collateralized by 35% just in the structure itself. And that stack functions kind of like a waterfall in the sense that again you have a triple A, a double A, a single A. Well within each clo, the double A can't get paid 1 penny until the triple A gets paid in full. The single A can't be paid one penny until the triple and double A get paid in full. So returns flow down that waterfall and conversely losses flow up if there are defaults coming from the underlying loans, you, they will be absorbed by those lower tranches first. And so you're over collateralized in the structure. There's subordination in the structure. And even if we go back to the financial crisis, the peak corporate loan default rate we saw in 08 was around 14%. But again in this structure, in the triple A tranche, you're over collateralized by 35%. It takes an extremely draconian scenario to break the structure of the CLO itself.
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A
So we get questions all the time in our inbox from people. And the last few years a lot of them have been just about bonds. And I made the point before that a lot of investors woke up to the idea of oh my Gosh, it's been 40 years since we've had to think about higher inflation. And so I think a lot of people woke up to the fact that like there are different parts of the fixed income market that react differently under these economic environments. Right. And so obviously a fund like yours, where the world's, the rates are floating in very short duration, that, that can weather that kind of storm much better than a different type of fund. So obviously maybe investors are thinking, I need to have some sort of inflation like protection for this. Beyond that and the floating rate notes working well, when rates go up, what's the sweet spot for this strategy working, are you saying? Well, the best case scenario is, yeah, rates rise and we pick up the yield pretty quickly and we don't have interest rate risk. What other scenarios are good for this fund?
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D
I like to think about it in terms of there's three reasons why you own fixed income. It's for the income, it's for capital preservation, stability, and then it's for equity beta diversification. And I think you can really hammer those first two with this strategy. So to your point, in an environment where you're getting rising rates, well, you don't have that duration drag and the yield is increasing. That's great. But even in an environment of falling rates, you're still getting a great return per unit of risk in this asset class. And the rates here fall with a lag because the CLOs reset every three months. You can get a rate cut that doesn't feed through immediately to the clos and you can pick up a little bit of additional yield in the meantime. And so we've seen interest in the product. I mean, certainly when the Fed did raise rates, that, that caused a lot of interest in the space. But especially now as money market rates are falling. And I mean you gentlemen are closer to the end client. We tend to hear that, you know, 4% on money market is kind of like a psychologically important level. And now you're seeing, you know, money market rates in the kind of mid threes we're starting. We see a lot of crossover buyers even as rates are coming down because folks want to capture that spread and still get back in the upper fours or five range.
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C
How do the mechanics of the ETF and the CLO work? Like money comes in guessing on a daily basis and it goes where?
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D
Yeah, so cash flows come in and this is an etf, so we can take, we can take that in kind, so we can take security cloq sips in kind or we can take in cash. As I mentioned, this is a much larger and deeper market than I think a lot of folks realize. It's a $1.1 trillion market. And so as money comes in, these are all cusips in the marketplace that our portfolio managers on JAA can, can add to the portfolio. It's really not that different from, you know, sort of any other, you know, standard bond.
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C
So is a AAA clo, A AAA C lower? Like how much variation is there from one to the next?
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D
There can be some variation especially in terms of the issuers themselves. So I mentioned there's about 140 firms in the US that have issued CLOs or that, that currently issue CLOs. Some have very long track records, have been, track records have been doing this for a very long time, have very large AUM bases. Some are newer entrants, some are newer players into the market. And so there can be quality differences associated with the issuers of the CLOs. There can be differences in terms of non call periods, there can be differences in terms of reinvestment periods. So some of like the technical attributes of the underlying CLOs themselves, so they're not completely uniform in that way. And those are some of the things that are. This is an actively managed product. It's not, we're not tracking a passive index here. Those are the sorts of attributes that we manage.
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C
So when you say there's 140 CLO issuers, just so Ben understands clearly. Is Jan, is Janice an issuer or are you a manager or somewhere in between?
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D
No, CLO issuers would be like a kkr, a Carlisle, an Apollo. Those sorts of firms, they're the ones taking a pool of loans, packaging it, securitizing it into a CLO J aaa. Our ETF buys the AAA bond of
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C
that CLO all right, so I'm glad you mentioned those names because in the news is private credit and the concerns about the outflows and the software exposure and CLOs are getting lump in, lumped in there a little bit. Can you give us like what are some of the things that you see out there? And you're like, this person clearly has no idea what they're talking about.
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D
So when it comes to software, it's, you know, it is a meaningful chunk of the overall loan market. 15 to 20% of the overall loan market. In J. AAA that's true as well, right. Given sort of our size, we do have some exposure to those loans. But I think the main point is you don't actually own a software loan. You own the AAA bond of a CLO that is comprised of hundreds of different loans from dozens of different industries. At any point in time.
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C
Talk about that a little bit more because I think that is like one
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D
of the key concepts it might be helpful to use. There was an example last summer, if you are familiar with a firm called First Brands, it went, it went bankrupt over the summer. They were an auto parts supplier, made a lot of headlines. So if you owned a First brand loan in like a bank loan mutual fund and they go bankrupt or they default, right? You're, you own the loan, you're impaired on that loan. In J. AAA we own four or 500 different closing each that own three or 400 different loans from two or three dozen industries. So even in a scenario where First Brands, which was a pretty big issuer in the loan market, goes bankrupt, you are not only diversified across hundreds, tens of thousands of loans, but then you're protected by the structure itself because you have all that subordination below you that is absorbing those losses.
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A
So these are AAA rated, they're securitized. Why is there a spread over corporates? What's the, what's the. Because the risk and reward thing has to be attached somehow. So why is there a higher yield in these, in these assets?
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D
So I think partially it comes, they are more complex. There is sort of more modeling that has to be done when you're managing these assets. Also, I think it's just a less trafficked part of the market. Right. When you look at what are the broad benchmarks that everybody is using. You know, if you're talking about the ag, the AG is treasuries, corporate bond and agency mortgages. If you expand it to the universal, you add high yield, you add dollar denominated non US Debt. But the Clos are not part of any of these major benchmarks. They tend to be very under allocated to in most portfolios, certainly most wealth portfolios. So I think it's a combination of additional complexity and just in general not being an asset class that prior to, let's say the ETF wrapper coming along and JAA coming along was open to enough investors to compress that spread all the way.
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A
Setting aside the fact that like rates could fall, the Fed could keep lowering rates and that, you know, maybe the yield would fall on this and these cured, like what, what is the big risk? Like what would, would it just be a massive financial crisis? I would have to really ding these. Like what, when would this, a fund like this actually get in some sort of credit trouble?
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D
Yeah, so they, it is a spread instrument and spreads can widen. And so the, the main risk environment is when you would get sort of what I would describe as, you know, hardcore spread widening and liquidity crunch combined. And this actually happened during COVID So if we go back to March of 2020, there is, there is an index from JP Morgan, a triple A Cielo index and for the month of March 2020 it was down 5% in that single month. I mean that's a period where we physically turned the economy off. Now you got most of that back in April and May and actually it was when our portfolio managers were looking at the asset class and putting it into an ETF wrapper. It was the trading through March and April of COVID that gave us the confidence that we could do this in an etf because you could still trade AAA clos during that time period. But that's kind of the risk that you bear. Outside of March of 2020, it's pretty rare to get even more than a 1% monthly drawdown. The last negative month that we had was Silicon Valley bank three years ago and you know, down 10 basis points that month. But in general the risk where that volatility comes from is the potential for spread widening.
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C
Right.
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A
So it's more like investors freaking out about liquidity, which is what happened during COVID as you said, to all types of spread products. Right. It wasn't just these, it was corporate bonds, it was high yield, everything like blew out.
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D
Exactly. I mean the days that you know, the clos were down, like I said for the month 5% you had days there where the market was opening limit down, limit down, limit down. Right. So it's, it's market wide risk premia blew out. And this is a very safe part of the market. But that was the, the drawdown during that period, which is again by far the worst that we've seen.
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C
Let's talk about another area of the securitized market. Where you guys, where you guys are invest, play is. I don't know, I'm struggling here. Jsi, the securitized income etf. So this is a more diverse portfolio. Invest in an asset backed securities, commercial mortgage backed securities. CLO's are in their mortgage credit agency, MBS and a slice of opportunistic investments. This is similar but different. What's the story here?
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D
Broader. So the securitized market in the US is agency mortgages, non agency mortgages, commercial mortgages, asset backed securities, which would be residential, consumer and commercial and then CLOS. So those are the kind of the five subcategories of the securitized market in the U.S. jSI invests across all of those. And similar to what we were talking about, you know these are, these are typically under allocated to parts of the market. We find a lot of compelling and interesting opportunities in areas like asset backed securities or like non agency mortgages. We specifically we love home equity loans at the moment in that portfolio.
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C
What do you like about those?
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D
A lot of folks bought their homes in the early 2010s and between the home price appreciation, often 50 to 100% and then the amortization of that loan, the loan to value on that mortgage might be 35 or 40. But everybody refinanced their mortgage rates during COVID so they can't do a cash out refi and they can't move. Right. They're locked in at like 2 and a half, 3%. And so the fastest growing part of the non agency market today is actually home equity loans. We'll probably issue about 30 billion in the US and so when we look at that market we say here's a borrower profile of, you know, owner occupied single detached family home. Typically these are prime borrowers. And the rates on that second mortgage. So they're taking equity out of the home to remodel their kitchen, to buy a boat, whatever they're doing. The rates on that second mortgage are typically 8 to 10%. And so we think that's a really attractive borrower and rate profile in the securitized market.
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A
Yeah, the borrower profile for that has probably never been better because like you said it was higher credit scores. They refinanced at really low rates. There's a ton of equity in there. Like the, the amount of that home prices would have to fall for that for them to be in trouble would be enormous. Like it's probably never been better than that.
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D
Exactly. And so there are a lot of very compelling opportunities in broader securitize another one. So in the asset backed space we actually have a music royalty position in the portfolio today. You know, there's a lot of musicians that are essentially selling their catalogs and as songs are played they generate a royalty stream or a cash flow. That cash flow can be securitized. So we have one today that's backed by Shakira, Chili Peppers, Journey and then you know, we appreciate Michael supports the fund because the, the other main artist is Justin Bieber. And so we, we get essentially every time their songs are played, you know, there's a royalty stream that is, that pays into that cash flow and we, we own a, a piece of that. That's just a different example of a part of the securitized market that, that we think, you know, can be pretty compelling and, and is differentiated relative to, you know, just a standard corporate bond.
- [24:35]
A
How often does do the allocations in that fund switch between, you know, having great opportunities in certain places, try to keep it close to some sort of benchmark weights or does it shift around a lot?
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D
No, it can shift depending on the market and depending on, you know, what's happening in some of the subsectors today. We really like parts of the asset backed market. We like parts of the commercial mortgage market as well. But those allocations have drifted through time. And so we have the flexibility from a product strategy standpoint. JSI is do securitized for me and then we also have ETFs that basically stack off against each of those underlying subsectors of securitized for people that want to be sort of more precise in their exposures. But JSI will manage across all of those.
- [25:22]
C
Where are you guys allocated to in the commercial real estate space?
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D
Everyone thinks it's like office space in downtown San Francisco, but it is, it can be a lot broader than that. Everything that we do in the commercial space is first and foremost single asset, single borrower. So we don't do very much in terms of conduit deals. We have liked areas of the high end hospitality market. We also have been in the, you know, the, the data centers and cell towers and part of the market as well, warehouses. So it's, it is a much broader market than just, you know, office space. But even within office, we own a building in Hudson Yards. When I say we own, we own a portion of the commercial market debt in Hudson, in Hudson Yards, the Metlife Building above Grand Central. So sort of the trophy properties where today it's something like 10% of the buildings or 60% of the vacancies in the office space. So it's quite a bifurcated market and we can play the, you know, the upper end of that.
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A
How do you handle the education piece for these kind of loans? And you mentioned they're more complex. That's pretty obvious when you're dealing with financial advisors who might not have much of a debt background. How do you handle that education piece for them in what is obviously a harder market to understand than the other parts of the bond market?
- [26:36]
D
First and foremost it's leading with the attributes. So again, 5% yield today, 1% volatility, floating rate and no defaults in the history of the asset class. And I think that gets people's attention and say, okay, help me understand and unpack this the second it goes. And I think Michael mentioned CDO squared and sort of it's the education relative to 2008 and the, the negative connotation around, you know the word like securitized. Right. And everyone sort of immediately wants to go to NINJA loans, right? Like no asset, no job, no no income mortgages. And the underlying pool of what I owned was, was not, was not sound. So the second layer of education is just the underlying collateral is a bank loan senior secured to a US company broadly syndicated bank loan. So as long as you're comfortable lending to the US corporate sector, which most people are oftentimes advisors will have a floating rate, you know, or a loan ETF position and you could say, hey, this is the same underlying collateral. It's just by securitizing it, we've changed the structure such that you know, you, you can get some subordination, you can get some over collateral collateralization, you can get some protection.
- [27:51]
C
So Mike, I understand the. Even though the 50 basis points pick up in, in the AAAs is not that much you're getting. So with 1% standard deviation or volatility, like very, very little downside risk there. Not financial advice. What about for people that want to take a little bit of a bigger swing? Anything else?
- [28:11]
D
Yeah, so we do have ETFs that invest across the entirety of the CLO stack. So we just launched J Single A which invests in the single and double A portion. And then we also have JBB which invests in the triple B portion.
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C
How much riskier is that? Is it like linear or exponential?
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D
I wouldn't say it's linear. In J AAA, you're over collateralized by about 35% in JBB, you're over collateralized by 10 to 12% in realized volatility terms. JBB has had a volume in the 3 range since inception. So it is more I think if you get into a downside period though, you could see, you should, you can see greater drawdown in that part of the market, just how much over collateralization you have in the structure.
- [29:05]
A
Okay. And then Michael said expect a little more volatility in those funds as well.
- [29:10]
D
Yeah, correct. The drawdown in JBB or the realized volatility in JBB, like I said, has been about 3%. So three and a half percent. So a little bit higher.
- [29:21]
C
Mike, for advisors that are listening, that want to learn more or investors, how do they find you guys?
- [29:29]
D
So I, you know, our website, janishenderson.com is the first place to start. I would certainly take a look at jaa. As you mentioned, it's been one of the most successful, fastest growing ETFs in the industry. We're really proud to offer it. There's a lot of great education that exists on the website, but then also, you know, getting in touch with us, we're always happy to, to double click on any part of this.
- [29:53]
C
Awesome. All right, Mike, appreciate the time.
- [29:55]
D
Thanks.
- [29:58]
A
Thanks to Mike. You did Great. Check out Janashenderson.com to learn more and email us.
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E
Animalspiritscompoundnews.com Please consider the charges, risks, expenses and investment objectives carefully before investing. For a prospectus or if available, a summary prospectus containing this and other information, please call Janice Henderson at 800-525-3713 or download the file from Janice Henderson.com reports. Read it carefully before you invest or send money. ETFs distributed by Alps Distributors Incorporated. Alps is not affiliated with Janus Henderson or any of its subsidiaries. Janus Henderson and any other trademarks used herein are trademarks of Janus Henderson Group PLC or one of its subsidiaries. Copyright Janice Henderson Group PLC.