Animal Spirits Podcast

Episode: Talk Your Book: Teucrium's Sal Gilbertie on Commodities & Crypto
Date: December 29, 2025
Hosts: Michael Batnick (A), Ben Carlson (C)
Guest: Sal Gilbertie (D), Founder & CEO of Teucrium

Episode Overview

In this episode, Michael and Ben sit down with Sal Gilbertie, founder and CEO of Teucrium, for an expert exploration of commodities markets, the intricacies of agricultural ETFs, and Teucrium's new foray into crypto, especially their novel levered XRP ETF. Sal pulls back the curtain on stable vs. volatile commodity prices, the structural quirks of ag investing, and the appeal as well as pitfalls of crypto trading through ETFs. The conversation is candid and insight-rich, with practical advice for portfolio allocation and real talk on risk, farming economics, and ETF innovation.

Key Topics & Discussion Points

1. The State of Oil & Commodity Prices

Time: 02:17 – 06:20

• Stable Beats Spikes:
  • Sal explains that, despite headlines, oil prices at multi-year lows are not causing panic. Global supply is ample thanks to increased US and OPEC production, even with events like the Russia-Ukraine war in the background.
  • Quote: “You're not [hearing panic about oil]. Because there's plenty of oil and people don't panic anymore. ... It's almost like wheat now – if you have a problem in one part of the world, unless it’s one of the major suppliers, nobody cares. You just get it from somewhere else.” (Sal, 02:53)
• Supply, Demand, and Industry Planning:
  • Stable, predictable prices are preferable for the energy industry because production planning, investment, and lending all become easier and less risky.
  • Quote: “Every industry is better with stable prices than spiking prices. ... In any industry, but particularly commodities, you want to know what the end point is.” (Sal, 04:52)
  • Price shocks (both up and down) can disrupt business, but most commodity suppliers cut production if prices fall too low, creating a natural floor.

2. Expected Returns & Optimal Entry Points for Commodities

Time: 06:20 – 09:47

• No “Set and Forget”:
  • Most commodities (except gold and, potentially, bitcoin) don’t offer positive expected long-term returns. They are cyclical, not compounders.
  • Quote: “These aren't stocks where you buy them and forget them. … Commodities are not a set it and forget it with the exception of gold.” (Sal, 08:40)
• When to Allocate:
  • Sal suggests investors consider grains at their production cost “floor”—using long-term continuation charts to assess when prices reach break-even (historical lows). These moments can offer the best risk/reward.

3. The Realities of Agricultural Subsidies & Trade Disruptions

Time: 09:30 – 14:48

• Government Subsidies:
  • All major crop-growing countries subsidize farmers to ensure stable food supplies.
  • Quote: “Every single farmer in every single country gets some sort of subsidy from the government. You want to keep your farmers happy because you want to keep your people fed.” (Sal, 09:51)
• Chinese Soybean Demand:
  • Trade tensions can disrupt US farmer cash flow but don’t change the underlying physical demand—if one country stops buying, another steps in.
  • Quote: “Everybody buys the beans that are available. … That pile is one pile, and it’s going to go to almost zero by the end of every single growing season.” (Sal, 10:57)
• Predictable Patterns:
  • Smart capital can take advantage of cyclical dips tied to trade issues, droughts, or headlines—price disruptions are often temporary and create opportunity for prepared investors.

4. Portfolio Diversification: When Grains Outperform

Time: 14:48 – 16:21

• Hedging Market Pullbacks:
  • Allocating to grains (corn, soybeans, wheat) at cyclical lows can stabilize portfolios, especially during stock market drawdowns.
  • Quote: “Seven of the last seven S&P 500 pullbacks of 10% or more, the soybean fund outperformed. … People don’t stop eating.” (Sal, 14:48)
• Patience Needed, No Cash Flow:
  • Investors get no income or dividends waiting for commodity price recoveries, which is a psychological and opportunity cost to consider.

5. Teucrium’s Expansion: Model Portfolios, Crypto & Leveraged ETFs

Time: 17:10 – 25:04

• Commodities Model Portfolio:
  • Teucrium now offers a free model portfolio (“Commodities 1”) to help investors get diversified commodity exposure via a momentum-based approach.
• Crypto Chapter: XRP and Leveraged Products:
  • Teucrium launched a leveraged XRP (Ripple token) ETF (XXRP), filling a demand niche for high-risk traders.
  • Quote: “Ripple’s management team … said we're going to change the way money moves around... I just believe in [XRP].” (Sal, 18:37)
  • Sal is clear about the risks: “It’s a levered fund. It’s for day trading. It's not a buy and hold fund because it resets every single day.” (Sal, 18:51)
• ETF Innovation & Speculation:
  • The XXRP fund saw explosive interest: $500 million in inflows in 12 weeks, for a product explicitly not designed for buy and hold.
  • Quote: “Everybody knows it's public knowledge. Futures were rumored... If you're not first, you're nothing. You have to be first with a fund. We had a great ticker—XXRP for double XRP.” (Sal, 22:44)
  • There are many copycats, but being first to market remains critical.

6. The Business of White-Labeling ETFs

Time: 25:33 – 28:35

• ETFs as a Service:
  • Teucrium now helps other firms launch ETFs via white-labeling (operations, compliance, trading, even marketing).
  • Launching an ETF is expensive and time-consuming; many would-be issuers drop out when they see the costs ($500k–$1M over 2–3 years).
  • Quote: “...it's somebody else's idea and somebody else's money. So we don't have to have all the good ideas and we don't. We're just not smart enough anyway.” (Sal, 26:49)

7. Oil: Less Geopolitical Panic, More Diversified Supply

Time: 28:35 – 30:53

• Oil is Less Sensitive to Headlines:
  • Geopolitical shocks (wars, attacks) don’t spike oil like they used to, since global production is more diversified (especially with US as a major exporter).
  • China could become the largest producer by adopting fracking/horizontal drilling tech, further shifting the landscape.
  • Quote: “Production is now diversified, you're not reliant on the Middle East and OPEC. ... China will be the number one producer of oil in the world [within five years].” (Sal, 28:56)
• Transition to Renewables and Nuclear:
  • The eventual shift to electric power will slow fossil fuel growth but won’t eliminate need for traditional energy.

8. Closing Thoughts and Future of ETFs

Time: 30:53 – End

• Commodities Still Have a Place:
  • Grains remain accessible, understandable, and valuable as a part of any diversified portfolio—especially for stabilization and hedging.
• Potential for New ETF Themes:
  • Sal is asked about the future (like a “GPU market” ETF), acknowledging the continued appetite for thematic financial innovation.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Commodities are not a set it and forget it with the exception of gold.” (Sal, 08:40)
• “If corn gets under $4 a bushel, that historically has been a price where people layer in the portfolio... It's only a matter of time before oil goes back up on some spike with some political upheaval or whatever.” (Sal, 12:58)
• “Seven of the last seven S&P 500 pullbacks of 10% or more, the soybean fund outperformed.” (Sal, 14:48)
• “It’s a levered fund. It's for day trading. It’s not a buy and hold fund because it resets every single day.” (Sal, 18:51)
• “If you're not first, you're nothing. You have to be first with a fund.” (Sal, 22:51)
• “To start an ETF... you have to have a budget of between probably a half a million and a million. And that doesn't count marketing. So it's, it's not an easy game to play...” (Sal, 26:11)
• “Production is now diversified, you're not reliant on the Middle East and OPEC. ... China will be the number one producer of oil in the world [within five years].” (Sal, 28:56)

Key Timestamps

• 02:17 – Sal joins, discusses why oil prices aren’t causing panic.
• 04:52 – Importance of stable prices for commodity producers.
• 08:40 – Why commodities aren’t “set and forget” investments.
• 09:51 – U.S. agriculture subsidies and the dynamics of the soybean market.
• 12:09 – How traders can profit from trade-induced mispricings.
• 14:48 – Grains outperforming during S&P 500 drawdowns.
• 16:21 – Entry points for “backing up the truck” in grains.
• 17:10 – Teucrium’s model portfolio and the move into crypto funds.
• 18:37–18:51 – Why Teucrium picked XRP, and the risk warning for levered ETFs.
• 22:44 – First-mover advantage in ETF launches.
• 25:33 – The economics and realities of launching/white-labeling ETFs.
• 28:35 – Oil’s muted reaction to geopolitical shocks—supply is more global.
• 29:30 – The coming transition to electric/nuclear and China’s rise in oil.
• 30:53 – Why ags still matter; speculation on new ETF products.

Final Notes

This episode provides a masterclass in commodities thinking: planning, patience, and the realities behind the headlines. Sal’s transparent commentary on both traditional commodities and cutting-edge crypto products highlights the tension between speculative appetite and true portfolio construction. Highly recommended for anyone seeking to understand the underpinnings of agricultural and energy investing—or the wild world of thematic ETFs.