Tax the Billionaires (EP. 446)

Summary

Animal Spirits Podcast: "Tax the Billionaires" (EP. 446) – JAN 7, 2026

Hosts: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson
Podcast Theme:
Exploring recent market trends, economic predictions, the AI boom, wealth taxation, social media misinformation, and the intersection of personal life with markets and pop culture.

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Episode Overview

This first episode of 2026 sees Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson in wide-ranging form, reflecting on recent market performance, forecasting the year ahead, discussing AI’s market and economic impact, lampooning social media misinformation, and diving into pop culture, vacations, and lifestyle. The show’s title nods to California’s proposed tax on billionaires—a launching pad for a nuanced take on tax policy and inequality. Market data, chart analysis, and entertaining personal stories round out a fast-moving, conversational episode.

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Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. Personal Catch-Up & Being Sick [01:20–06:22]

• Michael recounts a recent bout of flu post-Disney trip, tying it to market metaphors:

  “I've been above my 200 day moving average for a long time. I was due for a correction and boy did I get a correction.” (A, 01:35)

• Humorous banter about his refusal to rest, lack of sympathy from his wife Robin, and binge-watching movies while bedridden.

2. 2026 Market Predictions & Economic Outlook [06:22–23:17]

• Gallup poll: 70% of Americans expect economic difficulty in 2026—public sentiment remains skeptical.
• Ben’s “safe” baseline predictions:
  • AI bubble doesn’t pop
  • Megacap/“Mag 7” stocks do “good, not great”
  • Housing market stays frozen
  • No recession, just pushed further out
  • Interest rates are "range-bound" (4–5%)
• Michael: If forced, would bet rates come down and the housing market reopens, but no conviction.

  “I think things don't change is a pretty safe bet.” (A, 07:47)

• Both agree market risks (geopolitical, valuation) are highly visible—making them, paradoxically, less likely to be THE risks to upend markets.

Notable Quote

“The people who have been the most wrong have been the valuation bears over the past 15 years.” (B, 13:13)

3. AI’s Market Impact & Profit Margins [09:00–17:25]

• Analysis of how AI/“Mag 7” drove S&P’s doubling since 2020, despite much higher rates.
• Discussion of new metrics: profit margins and revenue per employee at record highs. Ben points out potential for further productivity driven by AI and robotics.
• Both dispute easy narratives that “valuation doesn’t matter,” arguing context (such as higher sustained profit margins) matters most.

Notable Quote

"When you just look at the valuations and you’re not looking under the hood of what comprises the index, you miss the story completely." (A, 16:18)

4. International Equities’ Surprise Outperformance [17:25–19:33]

• International stocks trounced the S&P by 14% in 2025 (“biggest outperformance...since 1993”), surprising consensus.
• Michael: European banks outperformed NASDAQ 100 over last five years—a stat he finds “insane.”
• Underlying cause: mainly valuation mean reversion, not just currency shifts.

5. ETF Mania & Year-End Flows [19:33–20:31]

• December 2025 saw record inflows to equity ETFs.
• Hosts puzzled why December, not January, saw such a spike—wonder if it relates to bonuses or seasonality.

6. Odds-Making: Market Corrections & AI Stocks [20:31–23:17]

• Ben predicts another possible 20% gain for S&P in 2026 (~75% chance), but also allows ~25% chance of 10% loss.
• Double-digit corrections are the historical norm in two-thirds of years.
• Both see high chance of 20%+ drawdown in “AI names” at some point, but wouldn’t be surprised if they finish the year positive.

Notable Back-and-Forth

A: “Will there be a 20% correction in AI names?”
B: “That’d be a way higher percentage than the overall market for sure…they still finish the year up.” (22:12–22:43)

7. Narratives: Media, Social Media & Misinformation [23:17–29:02]

• Example: Viral (but false) tweet about Denny’s and Jack in the Box closures was traced to a Bangladeshian bot.

  “How much of the negativity is literally fake. Foreign agents farm.” (A, 25:23)

• Problem with AI-generated misinformation:

  “Deep fakes...are going to be completely indistinguishable, real from fake, and people are not gonna care...” (A, 26:04)

• Hope that the abundance of AI spam will drive kids away from relying on social for “news.”

8. Consumer Spending Trends [27:24–29:02]

• Government data show people continue to spend more (including on dining and drinking away from home); behavior hasn't shifted dramatically, despite inflationary complaints.

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AI, Job Impact & Tech Disruption

9. Concerns About AI & Employment [29:02–33:01]

• Op-Ed: “When AI took my job, I bought a chainsaw.”
• Ben: AI as pop culture villain is here to stay; expects a “long tail” of both real and exaggerated impacts.
• Michael: Actual aggregate tech layoffs since ChatGPT’s launch are down; most initial AI disruption fears overstated.

  "Both of these numbers are down to the right." (A, 31:27)

• Both agree that new kinds of jobs will emerge, although the transition will be “difficult for millions.”

  “Think about new industries…DoorDash, Uber… jobs that came from technology that did not exist before. How many millions of people do them?” (B, 32:30)

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Fun Moments & Show Dynamics

10. Quote Inception & “Stolen” Takes [33:05–34:51]

• Lighthearted recap of Ben being accused by Michael of “stealing” his take about AI’s differentiated impact:

  “The take was so good you incepted it into my brain.” (A, 34:20)

11. Disillusionment with AI Tools [34:52–38:22]

• Michael is canceling his $200/month ChatGPT subscription, citing too many “hallucination” errors.

• Both gripe about generative AI’s penchant for factual mistakes (e.g., getting sports stats and celebrity deaths wrong).

  “ChatGPT 5.2 is still 45% hallucination…It’s basically a coin toss if it’s going to get a factual answer right.” (A, 38:22)

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Autonomous Vehicles: Tech Magic & Adoption [38:22–41:49]

• Ben describes a magical family experience riding Waymo self-driving cars in Phoenix (“Everywhere. It’s like being at Disney.”), marveling at the technology and predicting mainstream adoption within a decade.

  “I don’t know how you can be bearish on humanity…the fact that we created a car that can literally pick you up and drive itself.” (B, 40:12)

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Life Updates & Consumer Choices

12. Luxury Car Shopping [41:49–44:47]

• Michael’s journey test-driving a Lexus GX and Range Rover; emotional discussion about celebrating personal success.

  “I'm embarrassed…It's a douchey car…But I'm doing this for me. I love how it looks. I drove it and I felt really good.” (A, 43:07)

• He plans to lease due to reliability concerns.

13. Disney Vacation Recap [44:47–50:32]

• Michael raves about the “magical” Disney experience with his kids (memorable Peter Pan moment), and reflects on the cost, value, and lasting memories—contrasting the criticism Disney often receives online.
• Both agree Disney remains a unique business juggernaut.
• Fascinating market stat: Despite the parks’ success, Disney stock has underperformed the S&P for 30 years (!).

  “It’s a phenomenally profitable business…But that the market doesn’t value that…It’s so easy to look at something and have the wrong impression on…the investment.” (A, 48:38)

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Real Estate & Housing Market [51:15–53:54]

• Chart review: Home purchases by new buyers are unaffordable; those with existing low-rate mortgages are sitting tight.
• Ben suggests only significant government intervention (e.g., teaser rates) will thaw the frozen market.

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Midwest Migration & Affordability [52:30–53:54]

• WSJ article: Americans increasingly moving to the Midwest for affordability—not just due to poor local economies, but also rising wages.

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Taxing Billionaires: California’s Proposal [53:54–55:58]

• New York Times story: California proposes a retroactive wealth tax on billionaires—potential $1B+ per person.
• Michael critiques the proposal: such taxes are ineffective in practice because capital migrates.

  “It’s so stupid. First of all…the problem…the healthcare system is the problem.” (A, 55:37)

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Streaming Wars & Pop Culture [55:58–58:48]

• Update on viewing trends: Longtime TV franchises (“NCIS”, “Grey’s Anatomy”) dominate streaming by minutes watched.
• Netflix still crushes rivals; discussion of Disney+’s challenge in growing viewing share.
• Riff on “Avatar” as the NCIS of movies—hugely popular but absent from cultural conversation.

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Movie Recommendations & Lighthearted Stories [58:48–74:56]

• Michael’s in-bed flu movie marathon: includes “Train Dreams” (meh), “I Like Me” (John Candy doc), “Bonia”, “Influencers”, “Roofman”, “What Doesn’t Kill You”, “Sisu” (hard recommend for action fans), “Love Story” (1970).
• Ben’s recs:
  • “Good Fortune” (Aziz Ansari/Seth Rogen/Keanu Reeves)
  • “The Life of Chuck” (“creative…not a Michael movie”),
  • “Zootopia 2” (kids loved it).
• Notable segment: Michael raves about “Killer Joe” (2012, NC-17, Matthew McConaughey); warns about a notorious scene—“top five worst scene to walk in on, ever!” (A, 73:03)
• Lighthearted stories: Ben recounts being attacked by a cactus during an Arizona hike.

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Notable Quotes & Moments (by Timestamp)

• On the value of health:

  “You don't understand how important being healthy is until you're unhealthy.” (B, 06:08)

• On AI bubble predictions:

  “I Love that the market is rejecting the bubble. For now.” (A, 12:59)

• On misinformation:

  “Deep fake stuff...is going to be completely indistinguishable...and people are not gonna care that it's [fake].” (A, 26:04)

• On Disney as a business vs. investment:

  "If Disney isn’t making money, this is an absolutely iconic global brand. What has stronger resonance?" (A, 49:14)

• On celebrating personal success:

  “I'm doing this for me…very proud of what I’ve been able to accomplish professionally.” (A, 44:02)

• On automated vehicles and optimism:

  "I don’t know how you can be bearish on humanity…the fact that we created a car that can literally pick you up and drive itself." (B, 40:12)

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Key Segments & Timestamps

| Segment | Topic | Timestamp (MM:SS) | |----|---|---| | Personal Life, Sickness, Disney | 01:20–06:22 | | Market/Economic Predictions | 06:22–23:17 | | AI and Market Dynamics | 09:00–17:25 | | International Markets | 17:25–19:33 | | ETF Flows | 19:33–20:31 | | Corrections and Odds-Making | 20:31–23:17 | | Social Media & Misinformation | 23:17–29:02 | | AI & Employment | 29:02–33:01 | | AI Takes & Tech Cynicism | 33:05–38:22 | | Autonomous Vehicles | 38:22–41:49 | | Luxury Car Shopping | 41:49–44:47 | | Disney Memories & Stock | 44:47–50:32 | | Housing Market & Midwest | 51:15–53:54 | | Billionaire Taxes | 53:54–55:58 | | Streaming & Pop Culture | 55:58–58:48 | | Movie Recommendations | 58:48–74:56 |

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Episode Tone & Style

Casual, irreverent, and fast-paced, the episode combines market expertise with pop culture, sarcastic banter, and honest introspection. Michael and Ben aren’t shy about revisiting their own past predictions, poking holes in consensus, or spotlighting their own life moments—making this episode a quintessential entry in the Animal Spirits catalog, ideal for listeners seeking both actionable context and relatable entertainment as 2026 begins.

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Contact:
Questions/comments: [e-mail]
Subscribe for future episodes and market insights.

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Transcript

[A]

Today's Animal Spirits is brought to you by Y Charts as we kick off the new year, one of the biggest challenges for advisors is figuring out what actually mattered in markets and what was just noise. That's where Y Charts Advisor Pulse comes in. A LinkedIn newsletter that delivers clear market context, timely charts and concise takeaways advisors can use right away.

[B]

Their latest Post was a 2025 wrapped looking back at the year end markets, breaking down the biggest winners and losers, the economic forces that shaped returns, and how advisors navigated volatility all through simple client ready visuals. Instead of chasing headlines or scrambling for talking points, Advisor Pulse helps you stay prepared, save prep time and show up to client meetings with clarity in 2026. Click the link in the Show Notes to subscribe on LinkedIn and get 20% off your initial Y Charts professional subscription when you start your free Y Charts trial through Animal Spirits. New customers only. Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and invest. Join Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching.

[A]

All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben.

[B]

Are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

[A]

This podcast is for informational purposes only.

[B]

And should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain.

[A]

Positions in the securities discussed in this podcast. Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Happy New Year to everybody. Hope you had a nice break from school, from work, etc. Etc. I had the flu and I think I had it coming, Ben. I came back from Disney, spent one night in Universal, had a great time, spent another three, four nights in Disney, had a wonderful time. And when I got back somebody was saying like, oh, you must be exhausted. No, not really. I've got stamina. Not to brag, I just, I don't get tired. I've got a. I've got a motor, I've got an engine. I've been above my 200 day moving average for a long time. I was due, I was due for a correction and boy did I get a correction. So Thursday night I watched Begonia with Robin. She actually, she actually Rob and I have been DMing each other on Instagram. Not sure what's happening, but we've been like tagging each other like, like, oh, look at this, look at this.

[B]

You know, my wife sends me something, gets mad at me because I never check Instagram.

[A]

I do all the time.

[B]

How weird was Begonia? Because I saw the preview and I thought it looks pretty weird.

[A]

Okay so Begonia, obviously a Michael movie, meant to see it in theaters, didn't get around to it. And when I saw Robin send it to me, I thought, this is interesting. She obviously has no idea what it is and thinks it's something else. So I said, hey, let's watch this movie tonight. We haven't sat down on the couch and watched a movie together in a decade. Well, it can't be a decade. That's ridiculous. I genuinely don't know the last time we've done that. I'm usually a by myself type of guy. So we watched Begonia. I loved it. She said, that was awful, and I said, that was awesome.

[B]

Okay, I'm gonna, I'm gonna skip it.

[A]

Yeah, it's not Robin on this one. I wasn't feeling great, but then the next morning I woke up and I was like, whoa, boy, something's wrong. Now when I get sick, which is not too, too frequently, I never get a fever. Like, I don't, I don't remember ever having a fever. I'm sure I have, but I just, I don't get fevers, so. And, and every time I get sick, I'm gonna exaggerate. I'm a baby. I, I, I do overdo it a little bit. Robin doesn't want to hear about it. Like, she had no sympathy. Leave me alone. I don't care. You're not sick. You're sick. You are sick. You're not sick. Don't care either way. But she usually doesn't believe me that I am sick. So I woke up. I was, like, really struggling to get out of bed. But I had a podcast to do with you guys. And not to brag, a lot of the, A lot of the meat of the show was stuff that I had put in the dock. Otherwise I would have just bailed. So I did it with you guys.

[B]

By the way, you looked very sick. We got on the. I got on the thing, and you looked very sick.

[A]

I felt awful. Matter of fact, I was genuinely close to bailing mid show, and, and don't think I don't know what you have. Dunk enough plan later. Okay, I know what you guys have planned. I'm in the doctor. So after, after the show on Friday, I went straight to the urgent care, and it was packed because there's, like, a record number of flu cases in New York in New York these days. I saw it on abc, so it's true. Confirmed. And I got the rapid test. I thought I had strep throat, the flu, the nose, the COVID the doctor comes back in five minutes. He's like, you got the flu? And I'm like, mother F. My first thought was, I can't wait to tell Robin I have the flu. She's gonna roll her eyes and she's still not gonna care. And also karma, because if you remember, on this show a couple of weeks ago, I happened to mention that I got my flu shot.

[B]

You were rubbing it in the face of the rest of your family saying you're the only one who got it.

[A]

Did it bring the kids? Now, I told Robin I was getting one. Like, that's a pretty important detail. She wasn't too interested in having herself or the kids go, which is kind of weird because I don't know. I don't know. Didn't know that she was, like, a truther of sorts, but she was like, yeah, whatever.

[B]

Maybe now she will be, because you got it.

[A]

So anyhow, I was in bed all day Friday, all day Saturday, I mean, and I mean all day. I got up to go to the bathroom. Like, that was it. And Sunday, I said, like, if I don't get out of bed, like, my body, I'm going to start getting rigor mortis.

[B]

This is why your wife has no sympathy for you, because she's taking care of the kids while you're laying in bed.

[A]

So it wasn't. It definitely. It definitely wasn't all bad. I've got about 10 movies to talk about later. These are movies that I probably otherwise would not have ever got into. And I'm quite excited about some of them. One of them is NC17 teaser. We'll get to that later. And so yesterday I was feeling, like, 80% better, and now I'm like, I'm good to go. And I feel. It feels great, feel great to be back on my feet.

[B]

It really makes you. It puts in perspective how being healthy. You don't understand how important being healthy is until you're unhealthy.

[A]

Yes.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Absolutely. So I'm back, and I am excited to be back. So let's pod.

[B]

All right. You punted on predictions for the year, which a few people said, hey, we wanted Michael's predictions. So I put some in here. And Gallup also did some. So Gallup asked people a bunch of different questions about 20, 26. And some of them are just ridiculous. Like, but some of them ask, like, is the stock market going to rise or fall? 55% said rise, 44% fall. Rising employment or rising unemployment?

[A]

Timeout. Can we go? Can we each go on the record?

[B]

About what?

[A]

The stock market. 20, 26. Let's do it.

[B]

Yeah, I've got some Ben predictions here for a second and then. But it says a year of economic prosperity or a year of economic difficulty. And 70% said economic difficulty, not prosperity. So people are not feeling too great about the next year. There's not like overwhelming optimism from the poll at least. So here's my what's not going. Here's my simple Ben Granite's hedge predictions that things are not going to change. Okay, tell me where I'm wrong. The AI bubble doesn't pop. Mag sevens do good, not great. Housing market remains stuck. Activity is low, not great. No recession again, just keeps being pushed off. Interest rates are range bound. Three and a half, four to five percent. We live, we live in the same thing where it just feels like we're stuck.

[A]

Where's three and a half? Three and a half? Did you say three and a half?

[B]

Okay, sorry. Four to five, we'll say.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

I don't know. We're already pushing four. I think three and a half still is not like crazy, but like what's, what's the one that's wrong there.

[A]

And.

[B]

The things don't change.

[A]

I think things don't change is a pretty safe bet. You're not going to get in too much trouble for saying that things are going to stay the same.

[B]

Yeah, that's. That is a baseline. Seems pretty simple to me. I've seen.

[A]

If I, if I had to pick one. So, so go through the list again. Mag7 do good. Stock market goes up. No recession. Housing market remains frozen. Interest rates are range bound.

[B]

Yeah, just, it's just a continuation of.

[A]

What if I had experience, if I, if I had to pick one. I don't know, I would say, let's say let's save. Interest rates come down and the housing market reopens.

[B]

Okay. That's not.

[A]

No conviction.

[B]

I think that would have to be like the government would have to do something to get that really going.

[A]

Speaking of no conviction, I got a bunch of emails about the Seahawks and I have to admit.

[B]

Oh yeah, you're a little nervous now. Mark, did you make the bet?

[A]

I have to admit it is pretty funny. The Seahawks defense. I guess I haven't been paying enough attention. I watched the game.

[B]

Yeah, they're awesome.

[A]

Through the flu. What in the world did I just make a very bad mistake? I don't think so.

[B]

Because they stole Michigan's old defensive coordinator Mike McDonald.

[A]

I still don't think Sam Darnold is winning the Super Bowl. Sorry. And if he does, I will admit it will be funny.

[B]

So Michael Semblis, his, his Outlook piece about AI looked at, he looked at four big risks and I think the biggest take, take away something coming out of left field. Obviously the biggest one that like okay, this is going to lead to probably a bear market is something with China and Taiwan. Not being a geopolitical expert, I think.

[A]

That would be Dan Wang. We both read his, his annual letter. Yeah, he was like, he made, he made a comment about listen, the China Taiwan stuff is not new. That's been a political risk for 70 years.

[B]

Yes. I remember we had a macro newsletter we subscribed to in the 2010 my previous job and this guy was like if you look at this one island off the coast of China and it's not, this is not Taiwan. If, if they take this island then watch out World War Three. That's why you're right people. But just for the AI trade, I think it would spook headlines. I think there'd be a swift fall. But my other thinking is why wouldn't there just be a deal to keep Taiwan Semiconductor running Even if China did something, why wouldn't, why wouldn't it be just like the tariffs where. Geez, this sounds awful. But no, wait, this is a really important thing. They're going to keep a deal to keep certain parties happy.

[A]

I can't comment. I literally have no idea.

[B]

Okay, this is interesting new. There's a new guide to the markets I looked at yesterday and JP Morgan always puts together some lovely charts and they look at the at different inflection points for the S&P 500, the peak in 2000, the peak in 2007, the peak in February of 2020, 2022. Now at the end of where we stand and it looks at forward PE in 10 year treasury and dividend yields and it's kind of crazy to think that from the peak in those this even invested right before a 35% crash in the S and P in Covid if you'd invested then stocks were trading at 19.2 times forward earnings and the 10 year was at 1.6. Fast forward to the end of last year, 2025, the 10 year more than doubled to 4.2% and valuations barely budged from 19 to 22. Now if you look at that you would say how did the S and P do? You'd probably say oof, not great. Nope, the S and P doubled in that timeframe.

[A]

Yeah, I think a lot of the stock market data and stuff that we're talking about. It's just, it's all AI, obviously. It's all Nvidia, Google, it's all the Mag 7 stuff. And Semblis had a. Data.

[B]

The whole thing of how rates more than doubled. There's no way anyone would have thought, okay, the stock market doubled in that time too.

[A]

Of course, there's no way any. And there's no way anyone could have predicted a revolutionary technology. Semblus in. In that post was saying how if you took Nvidia out of the market, I think it was just Nvidia, then Europe and whatever else is outperforming. And obviously I love Semblus and I think his. I know he knows this and the point is valid. He's just to show like how much Nvidia has helped the market. But it's also like saying, well, like take, take Jaylen Brunson's 30 points off the Knicks per score per night. And they only score 85 points without. It's like, yeah, but the returns, probably they wouldn't have been redistributed equally, but there could have been returns that would have been had elsewhere.

[B]

That's fair. But I still think you're dismissing a little bit of the rest of the world. So the ACWI is up, I don't know, 75% of that time. And obviously a big part of that is because the US makes up a chunk of that. But it's not just the mag 7 anymore that's going up. Everything has joined the party.

[A]

I'm just saying the specific for The S&P 500 from 22 to today is 70% of the returns, max 7. I mean, it's a lot.

[B]

True. It's obviously the earnings too. So the next one is JP Morgan. They looked at the estimated earnings for 26 and 27 and both are 15% per year. So I guess that's probably the risk is that people are just the. The estimates for earnings are way too rosy.

[A]

Yeah, that. That's a very obvious risk.

[B]

Yes. But doesn't it seem like every risk right now is obvious?

[A]

Isn't that always the case or not? Maybe not.

[B]

I feel like it's more so now than ever. Yeah, the risks are more obvious than we've ever had them. I think.

[A]

I think you're right. I also don't think because everybody thinks AI is a risk, that it's not a risk. I don't buy that. I think that's way too cute. I also love the fact, and I sound like a broken record here, like I Love that the market is rejecting the bubble. For now.

[B]

Yes, for now. But the whole. I think the one thing we can definitively say is that the people who have been the most wrong has been the valuation bears over the past 15 years. So look at this one for duality research, which we've highlighted before, by the way. The person who runs this sent me an email, I don't know, a year ago, year and a half ago, saying, hey, I'm quitting my job in finance. And I created these charts and I'm going into this and I was kind of like, listen, your charts are awesome. Good luck. And that's one of my favorite newsletters now, every week.

[A]

I spoke to him the other week, and the. These are the best. These are some of the. Among the best charts in finance. Like, can I just say what. Before you get to the data on the margins, I like, don't. I'm not waving my finger at the valuation bears from the 2012 era where margins were extended because there used to be a cyclicality to the business cycle before the Mag seven names expanded their moat and just they've done things in business that have never, ever been done before. Expanding margins, 20% consistent growth rate at this scale. We've never seen anything like it. Now, like, if you, if you were bearish in 2012 because of valuations and you're literally saying the same thing in 2025. I mean, come on already. But, like, I don't. I, you know, I think it's like, I think it was reasonable to be bearish on valuations.

[B]

I just think we poked so many holes in the CAPE ratio stuff back then that it was. It was easier to look at the other side than it was to say, like, definitively, stocks are in a bubble again. I think those people. I thought that was just too much. That was my problem with it. Yeah, but the whole thing here. So this chart looks at valuation forward PE versus profit margin, and it just shows, obviously, profit margins are just up and to the right starting from 2005 to today. And we're entering a period of AI robotics, potentially stuff that's going to seemingly make businesses more efficient. How could. How could valuations not be so much higher?

[A]

Boy. Pat, describe the chart for people listening.

[B]

All right, so on one axis is a forward pe. On the bottom axis is profit margin. And it's showing valuation versus profitability. And it's showing that as profit margins have increased and have increased a lot since 2005. So to evaluations, it's. I mean, it's a Pretty strong.

[A]

So much relationship.

[B]

Like, yes, it goes all. But it's a pretty strong. And it's showing the estimated profit margin in 2027 of almost 16% and it was 7% in 2005.

[A]

I am very proud of the fact I've mentioned this before, pat myself on the back a little bit in 2018 when research affiliates called me out in that article for saying it was different this time. We were right about why multiples were elevated.

[B]

Right. And have remained elevated.

[A]

And it was the margins. There was a consistency and the sustainability of the profit margins.

[B]

Right. I still.

[A]

And when you, when you just look at the valuations and you're not like looking under the hood of what comprises the index, you miss the story completely.

[B]

That's the whole thing. They required context and that's what we've been trying to say. And this next one, I think this was from via Sam Row, via Bank of America. It shows revenue per worker jumped to a record high after 15 years of stalling out, which is. And it just, you can see it took off in 2022, in this decade. Really. And why would this, why would this ever go back now with technology being what it is?

[A]

2017, I wrote a post, should stocks be worth more now than they used to be? Kind of crazy that we're coming up on a decade of that post. And one of the things that I used was revenue per employee. Remember that I said U.S. steel was the first billion dollar company and their revenue per employee was 300,000 and Facebook's was 27 million.

[B]

And it's obviously only gotten better since then.

[A]

And it's just done nothing but gone up into the right consistently. And at some point you would figure that this is going to plateau, but who's to say when, where and if that will even happen?

[B]

All right, so on our TCAF episode, we talked about international outperforming and no one caring. So I looked at this. The E file performed the S and p by roughly 14% last year. It's kind of crazy to think in this AI bubble that totally took all the oxygen out of the room, right? Tech Mag 7 concentration. AI bubble. That's all anyone talked about all year after Liberation Day stuff. And this was the biggest outperformance by international stocks from the perspective of US investors since 1993. Blew it out of the water. There haven't been many double digits. It's really insane to think that that happened.

[A]

And rewind to the beginning of or the end of 2024. I mean, genuinely, people were saying in what universe. What would have to happen, like honestly, what would have to happen for international stocks to outperform in 2025? Even looking back, aside from like a weak dollar, it wasn't just a weak dollar. Like the local markets outperformed too, like in, in local currency. So what, what, what do you think explained the outperformance? I honestly don't, I don't, I don't know.

[B]

It almost still doesn't make sense looking back on it. But obviously part of it's the dollar. But we look at the attribution of this and it's, it's, it was more valuations than the dollar in, in earnings there. It was fundamental reasons. And I think the biggest thing that we've, and you've tried to, we've always said valuations at a timing indicator for years. It's just listen how things can't possibly get any worse. All they have to do is get less worse and then people will dive into these things. And I think that was part of it.

[A]

I think I did this with Josh on what are your thoughts a few weeks ago for one of our mystery charts? European banks have outperformed the NASDAQ 100 for the last five years.

[B]

It's nuts, right?

[A]

Is that insane? I almost want to fact check myself. It doesn't feel right.

[B]

And the bizarre thing too is that we've looked at value. Stocks overseas crushed last year. Small cap value was up an insane amount. And in the US it was barely up at all and got killed. And so you're seeing like dispersion among the types of stocks too globally. And for the first time it was like, oh my gosh, diversification actually worked for the first time in many years.

[A]

All right, Todd Sohn is out with his first blast of the year. And in there I learned that ETFs, equity ETFs specifically, and ETFs in general had a record breaking month in December of 2025 and it wasn't even close. It was off the charts.

[B]

Why would that be? What are people trying to sneak in at the end of the year? You'd think that there'd be more activity almost in January trying to get ahead of stuff than December.

[A]

I wonder if there is seasonality to this.

[B]

Is there like a year end bonus kind of thing that happens? Hey, you get your bonus right before the end of the year. Jam of the month club. Put that into the stock market.

[A]

Don't know.

[B]

Hey, that's a massive number. And you. And I keep saying, where is this money coming from?

[A]

Wages and Mutual funds and mutual funds. Wait, did you have a prediction for the S and P this year? Oh, you said you were gonna get to your predictions. Did you have them or are they later in the show or. No.

[B]

Oh, I, I didn't, I did not give a, A level for the S P. Would you like me to give you an estimate?

[A]

I would like one, please.

[B]

I said every year I, I'll either predict a 20 gain or a 10 loss and I can't at that point. So we've had so many 20 gains, I think I'd be leaning more towards another 20 gain. And this thing gets crazy. I'd say that's 75 chance and 25% chance we have a 10% loss. How's that? Okay, handicap it.

[A]

Do you think that we will have a 20% correction because a 15 is baseline. Do you think we'll have a 20? A bear market?

[B]

I think that's another possibility, yes. We've had three times this decade where the stock market has been down double digits from peak to trough at some point in the year and finished the year up double digits. And I think we could probably have one of those again.

[A]

All right, if you had to handicap the, the likelihood of a 10 correction, would you say 80, 20 or even more?

[B]

So historically it's 2, 266%. Okay, so if I put it at 80, that's it.

[A]

It's only 2/3 of years have a double digit correction.

[B]

2/3 of all years since the 1920s have had a double digit correction at some point. Peak to trough.

[A]

Huh. I thought I would, thought it would have been higher.

[B]

So 80%, I'd say that's, that's probably not bad just because we've had a good run. So. Yeah, I think that's, that, that would make sense. So if we're doing the, if we're making an odds board here, 10, 20. Yeah, I think we could go 80 for a 10 correction, 52 for a 20 correction. How's that?

[A]

All right, let me get more specific. Will there be a bear market? Will there be a 20 correction in, in the AI names?

[B]

Oh, does that include mag7 or are you talking about like the crazy stuff?

[A]

I don't want to split hairs. Let's just say in general. No. What? I'm so crazy. I'm not talking about, I'm not talking about like core weave.

[B]

Okay, you're talking Nvidia, Google. Yeah, that'd be, that'd be a way higher percentage than the overall market, I would say for sure. Yeah, it was up 70 last year.

[A]

Yay or nay. Had to bet. Don't get. Don't. I don't. I don't want handicaps. Like if you had to bet.

[B]

Yeah. And then they still finish the year up.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

I think that's a very pretty safe bet.

[A]

All right.

[B]

See what I did there? I can't be wrong.

[A]

That's good.

[B]

Put me on cnbc, mom.

[A]

That's good. I will go on record as saying the mark will have another up year.

[B]

75% of the time. It works every time.

[A]

It's true. Not. Not a. Not a very bold prediction, but. Oh, well. All right, let's do some stuff on the economy. There was a lot of talk of second half about a weakening economy. All fair same store sales as a proxy for how the consumer is doing are just fine.

[B]

Doesn't it seem like the number of recession predictions has gone down every year since 2022? It seems like now is the lowest number of predictions I've seen for recession.

[A]

Going into year, well, 2020, 2023. Everybody was expecting a recession.

[B]

Everyone.

[A]

That was that year.

[B]

2024. There were still some people going into 2026. I feel like now no one really thinks we're going to have a recession. Doesn't it feel that way? Besides the usual doomers?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

I don't think that's in anyone's parlay book.

[A]

The recession this year, a nationwide recession. Yeah, probably not. All right, so let's talk about this. So there's a. There's a handle on Twitter. Middle class party. Middle class underscore us tweeted. Denny's is closing 180 locations by the end of 2025. Jack in the Box is closing 150 to 200 stores. People didn't like stop. People didn't stop liking food. They ran out of money to spend on it. And this went mega viral. 11,000 likes, almost 3,000 comments, 2,000 retweets, 300,000 impressions. And this is. This is social media all day, every day. Of course, Jeff Richards replied with a picture. And there's a lot of legitimate complaints about Twitter. My feed this entire week while I was in bed is people undressing people with asking Grok to undress women on the Internet. So there's a lot. Obviously you don't. Don't need to like belabor the. The bad side about Twitter. There's plenty of it. We talk about it. This is a good feature. So there is an. About this account and Jeff Richards took a screenshot and the account is based.

[B]

In Bangladesh, of course, trying to My.

[A]

Hope, it's like, it's. This is how much of, how much of the negativity is literally fake. Foreign agents farm.

[B]

My hope for the. Because I keep worrying about this for my kids as they get older. My oldest daughter's 11 and I. We talked about social media the other day, and I hope that there's just. It's so overrun by AI that the kids all go, why? What's the point? Why do we want to, like, be getting our news, their information there if it's just run? Like, if they're gonna be looking at Instagram and looking at stuff on TikTok, fine, I guess. But for the other social media stuff, like the information, if they just go, if, if it's, if some of it's fake, then we're gonna think all of it's fake. I hope that's what these kids think.

[A]

I think that's such a great point. I'm glad you said that because it is alarming. And I was thinking about this, like, remember all of the Facebook misinformation, disinformation, the Cambridge Analytica, the. All that stuff that's going to look quaint compared to some of the deep fake stuff that's coming with AI, that is going to be completely indistinguishable real from fake, and people are not gonna care that it's. I mean, what, what even do we do? How do you regulate this stuff?

[B]

Well, there's already been stories in the New York Times about AI videos that have a watermark saying, like, this is AI and people still thinking it's real. So I think the transition period is just gonna be really hard for people who didn't grow, who didn't grow up with this stuff or didn't have technology in lives. It's. For a long time, certain people are just gonna be fooled by it and we're just gonna have to live with that.

[A]

You're gonna need. You're gonna need a new chapter and don't fall for it.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Remember, like, that was the golden age of fraud.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Like, this is going to be right, by the way. This is going to be awful.

[B]

This middle class parties guy, his thing about Denny's closing the jacket box closing. People ran out of money. It's not true. Look at this next chart.

[A]

Well, it doesn't even matter, but, but this is. This is like all of Twitter.

[B]

I know, of course, because people, People like to. When you complain, you're in the same boat. Everyone's in the same boat.

[A]

When you say, yeah, we're getting screwed by the man.

[B]

Right. But look at this chart from bls. It shows there's this really cool tool where you can click on these different things of what people spend money on. And it goes from 2010 to 2024, and it's food at home versus food away from home. And look at the amount of money that people have. Have spent. The both of them are up until the. Obviously, inflation is a big piece of this, but it's not like people have decided to stop spending money going out. The dollars are still being spent begrudgingly. Yes, right, begrudgingly. But it's not like people have severely changed their behavior. You know, this is interesting too. They have alcohol beverages at home and alcohol beverages away from home. And this is the opposite of the food. There's way more money being spent away from home on alcoholic beverages than at home. So we keep hearing these stories about how the. Any of the sin industries are really screwed. It's actually interesting. I think this is probably for socializing, probably a good thing. Like people, if they are drinking, they should be doing it out and about at restaurants with people at bars. Right. Sporting events doing it out as opposed to drinking themselves at home. Because people don't throw parties anymore. I guess.

[A]

But my drinking habits have completely flipped, I guess, similar to this chart. Like during. During. Remember Covid was like, I was drinking every night.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Probably for about a year. I was like, all right, I'm. Guess I'm. This is just. I never drink at home.

[B]

I guess on the weekends I do. But yeah, you're right. I don't really drink during the week. That's my thing. You go out more than I do in New York. But you're right, it's more of a social thing. You do it when you go out for dinner or something. All right.

[A]

There was an opinion piece in the Times that was pretty depressing. Said when AI took my job, I bought a chainsaw. So it was about. I think this guy was a writer, I can't remember exactly. And he asked chatgpt, like, what can he do that's AI resistant?

[B]

Okay.

[A]

And he started cutting trees. And then he. He got hurt because it's physically, you know, it's laborious. And he ended the piece with, in towns like mine, outsourcing and automation consume jobs, then purpose, then people. Now the same forces are climbing the economic ladder. Yet Washington remains fixated on global competition and growth, as if new work will always appear to replace what's been lost. Maybe it will, but given AI's rapacity, it seems far More likely that it won't. If our leaders fail to prepare, the silence that once followed the closing of factory doors will spread through office parks and home offices. And the grief long borne by the working class may soon be borne by us all. So we're obviously dramatic, but, you know, valid.

[B]

My thinking is like the AIs. Like, if you see it in movies and stuff already, you see, AI is like in every new movie out, AI is the villain. Right. This is. This is going to be the pop culture for the next 10, 20 years, probably.

[A]

Oh, yeah, right.

[B]

If there's going to be so many books written about this and so many movies about this, and the impact of this is going to have just a long tail, a very long tail.

[A]

Yeah. I do wonder. I mean, that is a question. Like, there are obviously, there's. There are obvious jobs that will be lost to AI, to automation. You. You can name them. The question is, like, where does it end? It doesn't really come for all of us. I mean, all of us is, you know, absurd. But there was a chart in. In Benedict Evans. What is it? Annual report. I don't know. He does.

[B]

He has an annual presentation.

[A]

Okay. And he, he wrote AI layoffs, a red herring in the short term. So he shows employees laid off within tech, specifically. All right, so employees that are laid off and then companies with layoffs. And yes, there was a spike as ChatGPT launched. That was way more to do with macroeconomic forces. Right.

[B]

That was just a bad time in the economy. It was.

[A]

Inflation had nothing to do with ChatGPT. Since then, both of these numbers are down to the right.

[B]

This is surprising. This, this does not match with the headlines at all.

[A]

No.

[B]

And you would think that tech would actually be the play because you hear about how much AI helps with programming, and so you'd think tech would be the place where this would have the biggest impact immediately.

[A]

You would.

[B]

That's surprising. I still, I'm on the T. Like, I know there's going to be a difficult transition for millions of people. I don't know what the number is. Is it 2 million? Is it 5 million? Is it 10? I don't know what the number is, but I still, I don't think that it's going to completely take over and ruin tens of millions of jobs. I just don't. I don't believe that there's too much inertia in the system. I don't think that's going to happen.

[A]

Neither do I. I guess the question is, how many jobs are going to be destroyed and how does that impact society? Even if it's only a small percentage, you know, what if it's, what if it's 7 million people?

[B]

The thing, I mean, think about, think.

[A]

About 7 million people. I made the number up obviously, but.

[B]

And I'm not saying that these are, these are great jobs for people, but think about the new industries that have popped up just in this last 10, 15 years. DoorDash, Uber, all these things that didn't. I'm not saying these are good jobs, people, but these jobs that came from technology, that did not exist before that, how many millions of people do now? And those jobs are going to get displaced when we have self driving cars.

[A]

But I guess the point is like those, those are terrible jobs, of course.

[B]

And how many people do them? So I'm just saying there's going to be new jobs that come about that because of this. And I don't think we even know what they are.

[A]

Yeah, I agree. And hopefully they're better than what, what exists. All right, Ben, let me have it.

[B]

Okay, so we did a live talk, compound and friends on Friday and I gave this take about AI and you immediately came back at me and said, hey, what the hell, man? You stole that take from me. And if you look at my face on the video, I'm totally confused because I thought, oh man, did I, if I did, I had no idea. And then a bunch of people emailed in and said, wait, what's Michael talking about? Ben had that take on the latest animal, Spears. Duncan, play the clip. Duncan found the clip for me. So you and Josh and I next week are gonna have a live show for tcaf, Right? I'm gonna, I wanna, I wanna talk about this then with him, but I want to plant the seed a little bit here. I feel like people keep putting this stuff all in one big bucket, like it's either going to succeed or it's gonna fail and it's all or nothing, right?

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

And. But what if it is? Like, hey, listen, these two companies figure out how to work it and these other companies figure out how to use it better. And these companies, they do crash and burn, but it doesn't bring the whole thing down. That's. I think that's the, the way people are thinking about it. That could be. Okay, that's good, Duncan. Okay, so you, you put my take honor on the table and you called out my honor for takes and I did I incept that into your brain?

[A]

Why did you. The take was so good that you incept into my brain. Listen, guilty as charged in my.

[B]

I'll give you. You were sick. I'll give you that much.

[A]

That was. That was a floo pod. My brain was a bit scrambled, but. Yeah, that's embarrassing.

[B]

You just said. And you stole that take from me. The funny thing is I just thought maybe, like, maybe I missed it from you. You said it. And I was thinking of something else. What's this? Hallucination. But I had to have Duncan pull that.

[A]

Fair enough.

[B]

What's the hallucination rate thing?

[A]

Okay, so I am about to cancel my 200amonth chat GPT thing, which I. I kind of thought I was going to. When I did it, it was more like. It was more of a test than anything. Like, I would have said, like, probably 80, 20% chance that I cancel this. That was, like, what I thought going into it. And I'm canceling it primarily because I just. I don't see enough value out of it.

[B]

Right, right.

[A]

Like, I don't think that I'm gonna notice a huge drop off in the $20 a month. Okay. And also. And also, so ChatGPT, Gemini, whatever. These tools are amazing. I'm not trying to be a complainer. Like, I understand that they will never be worse than they are today. Right. Like, think about what the iPhone is today versus what it was when it came out. Or Netflix when they had nothing on the service.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Like, it's early and it's going to be amazing. And maybe one day I will need the $200 tool. All right. All that. Okay. It gets wrong all the time.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Like, all the time.

[B]

The stuff that really is infuriating is the simple stuff. Hey, change this little thing about this picture just had you create. And then it. It. It can't for some reason. The simple stuff is the hardest for it.

[A]

But there's a lot of, like, factual errors. For example, I asked, are the Lions mathematically eliminated from the playoffs? And it said, like, yes, they finished the season eight and eight. And I was like, what? The season's not. Like, the season's not over. And you. And it gives you the whole, oh, you're right. I apologize. It's one of the movies that I was. That I was watching that I turned off, actually, because it was. It was way too boring. There's a 1974 movie, I believe, called the Conversation. It's with Gene Hackman, who is obviously one of the greatest actors of all time. Francis Ford Coppola. I had never heard of it. Oh, good Rotten Tomatoes. And he fired up. I was just bored. Whatever. So it got me thinking, hey, whatever happened to Gene Hackman? Remember, like, the double. Yeah, the double death. And there was speculation, and it sort of just fizzled out. So it got like, oh, what happened to Gene Hackman? So I asked Chad, how did Gene Hackman die? And it said, that was a hoax on the Internet. Gene Hackman is still alive. And I said, like, what, are you kidding me?

[B]

So the other day I asked it, if China invaded Taiwan, what would the reaction of the stock market be? And what do you think? It told me the baseline percentage drop would be for the stock market if China invaded Taiwan.

[A]

What did it say?

[B]

50%.

[A]

Let me see if I could find it.

[B]

Still got some work.

[A]

Let me see if I could find this. I can't even find it. Whatever. Who cares? It doesn't matter. Oh, here it was. Here it was. There's been no fine. So did they ever find out how Gene Hackman died? There's been no finding because Gene Hackman has not died. Gene Hackman is alive. He were taught. And then it said, like, if you're thinking of a death hoax that circulated online, that's almost certainly the source. So I said, gene Hackman is dead. What are you talking about? And then I started complaining about how much money I was. Okay. But anyway, getting back to the point. Yeah, getting back to the point. So in Semblance's post, he has AI model hallucination rates, which are incorrect responses to share of total questions. It's high as shit. Like, very high. ChatGPT5.2 is still 45%. Like, wow, it's too much. It's basically a coin toss if it's going to get a factual answer. Right.

[B]

And there are some people who take these as religion. Right? This is. This is it. What this thing says is right. It's perfectly accurate. Wow, those numbers are really high. Okay, I mentioned on TCAF last week that we. So we get to. We flew into Phoenix for a week just to have a nice time at, like, an Airbnb place, do some hiking. I got a hiking story later. But the first thing I noticed coming out of the airport is waymos are everywhere. And I was like, oh, I forgot. Phoenix is a big area for this. I didn't. I didn't think of it, but I started seeing them everywhere. And we rented a car. But I told my wife and kids, I'm like, we have to take one. We have to do this. And they're like, why? I'm like, we have to do this. It's literally, look, there's no one in the driver's seat. This is a miracle that we create this. And so we took one to dinner and so you can hold four passengers. So we had 10 people with us. We had to take three of them. And everyone was like oh my gosh, this is the coolest thing we've ever done. It's felt like you're going on a ride at Disney and to see the steering wheel move on its own. And it's funny. The driver's side, the seatbelt is buckled. I think it has to be. So it doesn't beep but the cars are jags. It's really nice. Everyone we were in is super duper clean. You get in, it gives you instructions. You hit the start button after you're ready to go. It tells you what to do. You can hook up your own Spotify to it. It's unbelievable. It like changed my life. And I don't know how you could see something like experience something like this and be bearish on the future of humanity. The fact that we created a car that can literally pick you up and drive itself. And it, it was the craziest thing was at the red lights I thought like are these things going to be really slow? It like takes off from a, from a red light. Like it goes, it goes with the flow of traffic. There was only one time where I was at a green light and it was a left turn lane and had to turn and it kind of started to go and then it, it hit slam the brakes on cuz cars were coming and it probably could have made it but it decided no, I'm going to be in it. Like gave a little read on the screen saying hey, sorry, cars were present. And then it took off. It. I never felt unsafe for a minute in it. It was, it's. It's crazy to me that these are going to be on the road everywhere in I don't know, 10 years. Yeah, I don't know how you can be bearish on humanity that the fact that we have the ability to do this. So Nvidia yesterday said they want to power robo taxi fleets with chips and software by 2027. Jensen Wang said this had his thing way more. I looked this up. They said they've done 14 million trips in 2025 so far. 20 million lifetime trips by the end of the year. And they were everywhere there you see them all the time. They had these big things on the top that swirl around as like the sensors or whatever. And just seeing these cars with no one driving in them is wild. And I'm sure it's something that eventually you just get. We took it like five or six times and then like, okay, it kind of wears off, but it's, it's magical. I can't imagine them going around New York City with all the honking and moving and I don't know how that's.

[A]

There's too many. There's too many people that are just crazy walkers in New York City. Right. That just run across the street when they shouldn't be. Like, I don't know if it would work in New York City, but it would be hard. It's amazing.

[B]

Yes, it, it really is. And the thing is, it was. I don't know how they're make. They Google is obviously subsidizing it to get this up and running because I think the cars cost 150 grand. Our. Our rides were way cheap. We got like something one of the nights saying, Hey, 25% off all rides. And like the rides for like a 20 minute ride was like $10. It was cheaper than Uber.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

To start with. It was.

[A]

It's magic. All right. Speaking of cars, I am close to make to making my decision.

[B]

Okay. This is like LeBron and taking his.

[A]

I'm taking my talents. So I test drove the Lexus GX and I test drove the Range Rover and I've been pretty vocal about my shitty car experiences and saying like, I just want. I just want a car that's like, not gonna give me trouble. Which would steer me to the Lexus. Right? It's not a cheap car, the Lexus gx.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

I got in it, I drove it, and it felt.

[B]

Any cheap SUVs anymore?

[A]

No. And it felt, it felt fine. It's a very nice car. Like, I'm definitely not a snob. Okay. I might like. It's. It's a very nice car, but it. But I'm not buying the car. All right? I'm not. This is not like a car that I'm gonna have for 10 years, right? Where if you're buying the car in. I would never ever buy a Range Rover.

[B]

Like, oh man, you're setting yourself. You're gonna have so many problems. I'm already, I'm already marking it down. This thing's gonna be a lemon.

[A]

But, but here's, here's my thinking.

[B]

I. I'm not a snob, but I'm buying a Range Rover.

[A]

I know. Listen, I'll. I'm embarrassed because I don't consider. Because I. It's a douchey car.

[B]

I Know, I see them all over. I think you actually said this to one person. Didn't you say it to someone?

[A]

I said this to a friend of mine years ago and he, he happened to drive it. I didn't know he drove it. Yeah, it is a douchey car. It just is. And I am a little bit embarrassed. However, I'm also very proud. I'm doing this for me. I'm not doing this, like, for external purposes. I've. I love this car. I love how it looks. I drove it and I felt really good. It's a, it's a type of car that I will get in and I hope maybe I'll wear very quickly and I'll report back.

[B]

What's the, what's the model? I need to know the model, the whatever.

[A]

The, the, I don't know, the regular one, the full size one.

[B]

Okay. There's like a bunch of different models now. Okay.

[A]

So. Right. Let me. But I drove it and it drives awesome and it's a beautiful car. And yes, like, there is a piece of me that is embarrassed to be perceived as like, oh, look at this douchebag. But you know what?

[B]

If you, if you test drive the Range Rover, you're never going to go to something else.

[A]

But ultimately I'm doing this for myself. I'm very proud of what I've been able to accomplish professionally. To be able to afford this car, like, is something that I never in a billion years, when I was unemployed and 26 years old, thought would be possible. So I'm doing this for me and also for the content. Because let's be honest, if it breaks down and it's a piece of. And I go mental, it would, it would be very funny.

[B]

Yeah. Add it to the list of the Audi and the Jeep and the Range Rovers.

[A]

But, but on that front, I'm leasing the car and yeah, obviously I'm rolling the dice because the, the statistic, objectively, this is like not a reliable car.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And hopefully that's what the lease is for. So I'm not 100% done, but I'm not, I'm not getting the Lexus regardless.

[B]

Good for you. I like it.

[A]

Thank you. Onto Disney. So I don't, I don't love like the cynical stuff on the Internet, just in general. Like, I, I just, it's very easy to be cynical about everything. People are taking pictures of Disney. Oh, I can't imagine. Could you imagine who's. Who would like, listen, I don't like that attitude anyway. But it is, it's Just a magical place. It really is.

[B]

No, that was me. I was the cynical person saying, I hate lines, I hate crowds, I hate all of that stuff. And then you go to Disney and you go, oh, that's fine. I can deal with it.

[A]

My. My kid, my boys had such an incredible time. Logan is obsessed with Peter Pan and Captain Hook. He gave Captain Hook his book, and Captain Hook took the book and ran away, and Logan chased him. And then Logan got to meet Peter Pan, and, like, I literally cried. Like, it was.

[B]

Sent me the video. That was good.

[A]

It was the sweetest thing ever. And, yes, I have a few pictures in here. Were the amount of people overwhelming? And, like, was it the most fun being everyone? It was. It wasn't the greatest, but memories for life. 10 out of 10, if you could. If you could afford. It's just a. And at one point, Robin wanted to make sure that they got to meet Buzz, I think. And so she's like, you know, I'll just take the kids for a walk. So they. Every day, we took them for, like, an hour nap. Thank God we bought a stroller, by the way, which I thought was a bad idea. Holy shit. I can't imagine. It wouldn't have worked. We would have had to rent a stroller. So we had a double stroller. Every day, they took a nap for an hour. Whatever. Like, it's exhausting. It's a long day. And at one point during the day, Robin was very happy to sit down and wait online and be on her phone, whatever. And I'm walking around Disney. I was in Hollywood Studios, and the kids are sleeping, and I'm listening to Cameron Crowe's audiobook. And it was just. I was specifically thinking, I'm having the time of my life.

[B]

Good.

[A]

Pushing my boys around, listening to an audiobook. Robin's a load. Like, it was just. It was awesome.

[B]

And.

[A]

And I think I'm done with Disney. This is my third time. Yeah, I think I'm good.

[B]

I said that.

[A]

So wait. So here's the point I wanted to make. So with investing all the time, you know, Peter lynch obviously popularized this. Invest in what, you know is a little bit more nuanced than that. But you see a place like Disney, and you're in a place like Disney, and I heard a few people say how much money they're making. And, yeah, the theme park is a gold mine. Parks and experiences are a gold mine.

[B]

I think the number I saw was between all the parks. It's like a million people a day. If you put all the Parks together and you think about the money people spend. I thought the same thing. I got a question for you on the. So you've got these charts in here. You can give them this. But if Disney never would have done Disney plus and they just would have like give their IP to other people, right? Netflix, you buy it from us. HBO buy it from us. Peacock. If they never did. Disney plus is a stock way higher today.

[A]

Way higher.

[B]

Probably. Right?

[A]

Way higher. Look at all the travel stocks. Way higher.

[B]

Right. If it's just the parks and they're making movies and they're renting those movies.

[A]

Other streamers now. But this is. But hold on. Because we have to consider that ABC is obviously a huge property. Right? So if Disney Parks was a standalone, separately traded vehicle. The parks and experiences.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Yeah, I think, I think the linear stuff. And Disney plus is absolutely an anchor. All right, so. So here's the deal, Jack. The earnings per share hasn't gone anywhere in a decade. The stock has underperformed on every single time frame for the last 30 years. I had earnings.

[B]

One is the earnings chart is crazy.

[A]

I had Sean look at the 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30. And it's underperforming on every time frame.

[B]

And so yes, 30 year time frame, the S P is up 10 per year in Disney 7. That's. That. That's a big number.

[A]

Okay, so I'm glad you said that because the actual numbers are astounding. And yeah, like the company, the. It's a phenomenally profitable business. Its earnings aren't growing, but it's still making a ton of money. But that the market doesn't value that. I mean, obviously, I know we know that. But it's so easy to look at something and have like the wrong impression on what, you know, the investment. All right, so Disney.

[B]

Because the Disney parks don't scale. That's the thing. The hope was Disney+ will scale. Obviously it didn't.

[A]

They haven't had a.

[B]

That's why tech companies are better than. Yeah.

[A]

So cumulatively, over the last 30 years, Disney is up 675%. Not bad. Okay. On a nominal basis, not bad at all. But over the. But the S p is up 1,800%.

[B]

Yeah. Dang.

[A]

10 years. It's 298 versus 17. When we're talking about investing, like, it sort of breaks my brain a little bit. Like, if Disney isn't making money, this is an absolutely iconic global brand. What has stronger resonance with people than Disney? Anyway, I'm beyond overjoyed. That my boys got to experience it. It was.

[B]

By the way, someone in the comments last week said, I will pay these guys to stop talking about Disney every week. And then the next comment was, they'll just take that money and go to Disney again. Which I thought was pretty funny. So kudos to the guys in comment.

[A]

So I am going to. So we're going back to the Bahamas in February because Disney was not exactly a relaxing vacation. And I was thinking like, so I take two vacations a year with the family, December and February. None of this happens without points.

[B]

Helps a lot when you have kids.

[A]

And plane tickets and you're my plane tickets and my. And the hotel is with music points.

[B]

Right.

[A]

And don't you think this is so much of the travel boom? Of course it is. I'm not. I wouldn't. I, I just, I wouldn't. It's. It's sort of like this may be a bad analogy or maybe not. I would not bet the money at a, at a black table if I was using cash.

[B]

Oh, instead of the chips, you mean?

[A]

So if I'm. I just wouldn't pay ten grand for flights and hotels. I mean, maybe once a year, not twice a year.

[B]

It's a lot. Yeah. You know how many credit cards I have that I've taken out to get the point bonus and then use them at a hotel? Do that all the time. Like, I guess it's been a while since I've done it, but yeah.

[A]

All right. Real estate. Somebody. John Brooks had a chart. I don't know if this is his from Re Venture. I'm not familiar, but why the housing market is frozen and it looks at the mortgage payment to buy versus the monthly rent versus mortgage payment. Current owners.

[B]

I'm glad they put the current owners one in here because people only show the new.

[A]

Yeah. And not so. I'm noticing more and more houses in my neighborhood, some more desirable than others, of course, that just aren't selling. That would have sold in a second. I mean, a millisecond it would have been a bidding war. And they're just sitting.

[B]

Don't you think it's going to take some government intervention if we really want to get activity going to say, hey, you get a teaser rate for five years. Right. If you have a 3% mortgage, we're going to give you a 4 and a half percent or something if you like, for five years and then it adjusts to whatever the market is. And if you're buying a new home, you also get that teaser rate for five Years. Like if they just said we're going to buy down mortgage rates for you, for everyone, Everyone who wants one. If you're willing to get off your 3% mortgage, we'll buy it down for you for five years and then you're, then whatever the market says it is, that's what you got to refinance into. Something like that. If you really wanted to get activity going. I don't see anything other than that that would help because of the everyone's stuff. I don't see what else would do it.

[A]

Well, people can move to the Midwest. Did you see this article?

[B]

No.

[A]

Wall Street Journal. Americans are looking to the Midwest to find affordability. Not a lot of data in here in terms of real estate, Midwest specific stuff. But they, they were just talking about a lot of anecdote, you know, a lot of, a lot of stories. John and John and Jane Smith. But they were saying, like, not only is the Midwest affordable, but they also showed that it's not just because wages are stagnant, where people have no money. Like they have a chart showing after tax, wage and salary growth by region. And the Midwest is, you know, it's up there.

[B]

I wonder how much remote work has to do with that. The fact that you could potentially earn a higher wage living somewhere else.

[A]

Are you, what, what, what is the housing market like where you are?

[B]

It's, I mean, the prices are, it's getting to the point where it's like, oh boy, you know, it's where it's not that as affordable anymore. Like that. But you're seeing people push back. When people try to list for really high prices, the market is pushing back. I have a few friends who work in real estate who are saying that like that stuff's selling, but people are. If people try to like buy something and move in a couple years, they're not going to get what they paid. So. But the prices here are much higher. But compared to another, the coast, the people would laugh at the prices.

[A]

Yeah. All right. There is talk from politicians in California about a billionaire tax. This is from the New York Times. Suzanne Jimenez, the chief of staff at SEIU uhw, said the organization was trying to fill a funding gap for the state's healthcare industry. She said, we looked at how could we generate the revenue to fix this kind of hole. And this group of folks just made sense. Added that California billionaires were the most fortunate people in the state. So the time says if the measure gains enough signatures to reach a state ballot in November and wins approval, it will retroactively apply to anyone who lived in California as of January 1, 2026. Those are $20 billion in assets who resided in the state on the date would face a one time tax of $1 billion and have five years to pay it. Larry Page, for example, that would result in a one time tax of more than $12 billion. Peter Thiel would be 1.2. So these people are not going to be in California if this is actually happening. And it's easy to yell tax to billionaires. It's so stupid. First of all, the problem and it's very easy to point to inequality and the problem of the billionaires. No, that's not the problem in this specific case. The healthcare system is the problem. And I don't care how much money somebody has. Nobody likes to pay taxes. Like oh, what's, what's who, who cares? Their. What was the number for Larry Page? $12 billion.

[B]

Kind of a high number.

[A]

That's a lot of money. 12 billion.

[B]

I guess the, the thought is who's going to, who's going to cry for the billionaires? I think that nobody. Of course, that's obviously the thought.

[A]

Of course it's popular, right? Like yeah, tax them. But it's just, it's not real life. They're. They would just move.

[B]

Of course. Yes. There's incentives here, right? Yep. Yes.

[A]

That it's not going to work real quick on streaming. Lucas Shaw did a, did a review on who's watching what where. Top show of 2020-2025 by minutes watched while in the weekly top 10, NCIS is number one.

[B]

Grey's Anatomy is still up there. Unbelievable. That show's been.

[A]

What does NCIS stand for?

[B]

Navy Something. I can't remember.

[A]

Naval.

[B]

Been on forever.

[A]

Wow. Naval. I had no idea. Naval Criminal Investigative Services.

[B]

So it's funny because a lot of people say, listen, Avatar is like the biggest movie franchise ever, right? Every one of the movies does billions of dollars and has no pop culture footprint at all. No one quotes the movie. There's no memes about the movie. So Avatar is the NCIS of movies. Like NCIS is massive. Who talks about that show ever?

[A]

Have you ever. You've never watched an episode, right? Obviously, no, I don't watch.

[B]

I'm not 65 years old.

[A]

All right, Gray's Anatomy is number two. Bluey is three. Coco Melon another one. Criminal Minds is number five.

[B]

Ray Anatomy, jump the shark in like season four. I watched the first few seasons. Can't believe he's still on.

[A]

Do you know what Criminal Minds is?

[B]

No. But it's gotta be something like ncis, I assume.

[A]

I'm guessing it's a CBS nonsense.

[B]

It's crazy that Suits is still up there. Suits in the office.

[A]

Okay. Ozark is the most watched show ever. At least. I'm sorry, 2020 and 2025. Stranger things.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

No, this is not. No, not Netflix.

[B]

Oh, just streaming. Okay.

[A]

That's Stranger Things.

[B]

I finished Stranger Things, by the way.

[A]

I only watched the first season. I'm not. I'm totally out. How was it?

[B]

I didn't. I didn't love all the mind stuff and jumping in and out of different worlds, but the ending was like an 80s movie. I kind of liked it. I kind of like how they finished.

[A]

Is the series over?

[B]

Yeah, series is over.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

I kind of liked how they finished it. It wasn't. I didn't. They didn't need the last two seasons, but I like how they tied the loose ends up.

[A]

Anything else? The crown. All right, whatever. It's. It's all. It's all the Netflix shows. Um, Disney. All right, so we spoke about this earlier. Disney, they show the company has. Haven't increased their share of TV viewing in three years. Just flat. Of course, Amazon is.

[B]

All they have is like one Star wars new show a year. That's it.

[A]

My kids watch Disney. I. You know, Blank Check.

[B]

But on your recommendation, my daughter Kate watched Blank Check on the flight to Arizona.

[A]

Love it. Yeah, it's a good one. Netflix crushes rivals in competition for film fans. So 61% of viewing time for movies in the weekly top 10. Okay. Because I was gonna say I watch most of my movies on Prime.

[B]

Yeah, I'm more like an HBO person. Prime and HBO are probably my two biggest ones.

[A]

All right, then. So tell me about what happened to you in the desert. I mean, this is the second time that a plant attacked you.

[B]

Yeah, the plants don't like me, so I got attacked by a cactus. So when we get to Arizona, my son, eight years old, George. The first cactus we see on the side of the road in, like, a pot, he goes up and has to touch it. Like, he's just. Can't believe these. These cacti exist. So he has. Every one he sees he has to go touch. And I'm like, dude, it's. You're gonna get hurt if you keep. And he's like, oh, no, it's. It's every cactus he's got to touch. So we're at. We're at the base of this trail, Pinnacle Peak. It's really nice hike up the mountain a few miles, getting ready to go. We haven't even gone on the hike yet in my. Of course, the signs don't go off the trail. All my kids run off the trail immediately as we're, like, getting waters ready, getting the bathroom, you know, we haven't started the hike yet. And I hear him screaming, and there's these little cactus that look like sea urchins. And I hear him yelling. And all the kids are over. He's yelling, I got a sea urchin. I got a sea urchin. And so I run over, and he's got one in his leg, like, in his ankle, right by his ankle bone and his sock he's got. It's stuck to him. And if it's this teddy bear cactus that if you touch it, it falls off and it. It hooks to you, and it looks like it should be soft and fuzzy, but it's not, so he's stuck there. And I said, hey, come here. I'll get it out for you. And there's this guy next to us who's a local. He's like, hey, just take your shoe and hit it off. And I said, come here. And he's going. He's frozen in place. He can't move. And I'm thinking, like, what if this has something in it? Like, what if he's. So. He's like, no. And he's frozen. And so I'm like, ugh. So I run over and I jump over a bush. And as I jump over the bush, behind the bush, he is another one of these cactus. And it just immediately goes into my leg, and I'm trying to get off his. And all the other kids are like, oh, my gosh, dad, look at your leg.

[A]

You haven't in your neck.

[B]

Yes, I. I felt like, you know, in Ace Ventura, too, when he's got two of the. Oh, that's what I felt like. So I see it, and I walk over, and it hurts immediately. It really hurts. These things are going in different directions. And I got a. My son had a little one. I have a gigantic one in my leg.

[A]

Picture is amazing.

[B]

It's huge. And so I walk over and immediately. Of course, my wife is dying laughing, and it hurts. And we. We find the park ranger. He says, hang on, I'm going to get. I'm going to go get a comb to get this out. I'm like, what do you mean, a comb? I was like, okay, this guy has a thing that will help to get it out. And it hurts. And he comes over and he's got all his tools, and he's taking his sweet time. And I'm like, hurry up, man. This really hurts. And it. I'm not trying to, like, downplay it. It really hurt. It was not fun. And it's, like, pulling at my skin in different directions. It's in there. Good. And the guy comes out, and he has a literal comb that you would get at, like, school picture day. I thought he had, like, this big thing. He's like. He looks at it, and he goes. And he's got this little tiny comb. He goes, man, that's a big one. I said, yeah, it is. Can you. And so he takes it, and when he took the thing out, it hurt 10 times more going out than going in. It. It. Somehow this cactus ripped the hair off my leg.

[A]

Did the barbs, like, stay in your leg?

[B]

Then he had to give me tweezers, and I had to pull out, like, 10 of them with tweezers. The funny thing you can see in the picture, I'm looking at my hand. I tried to grab it and rip it out with my hand, and that didn't. That was not a good idea because all. The one in my fingers, it surprisingly didn't bleed that bad. I had these holes, and it. It. It was painful. The rest of the day, it wasn't nearly. I thought it was going to be, like, bruised, and it actually wasn't that bad. Once it came out, it. It hurt for the next few hours. I took some ibuprofen. I drank a margarita, and guess what? Still did the hike, though. So not fun. I wouldn't. I wouldn't recommend it.

[A]

Wow.

[B]

Yeah. So it. And I took a picture there to show you what it looks like, but the one I. It was much lower to the ground, and, man, did it hurt. It was. I'm not trying to be a wimp. And my wife is sitting there, like, filming me and taking pictures, and she's dying, laughing, and I'm like, you know, it actually does hurt.

[A]

I'm glad you're laughing. I'm glad you think this is funny.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Anyway, recommendations.

[B]

That was fun. So I told my son, like, maybe just stay away from the cactus for a while. Like, anyway, I'll do some. Since you got a bunch. I watched a couple good movies this week. New ones. First good fortune was the Aziz Ansari one with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. I have no idea how they got Keanu Reeves in this movie, because sometimes you just like a good 6.5 comedy, right? It's not great. It's no belly laughs, but I chuckled 10 times. Probably. Some people don't like Aziz in his comedy. I tend to be a fan in him. Seth Rogen and Keanu played an angel and he played the straight guy, Right? He's the straight guy. He was really, really funny in this. I have no idea how they got me to do it. And I just. If you put him in his other actors. So Leo and Matt Damon and Brad Pitt and Edward Norton, like, he's nowhere near as good of an actor as those guys.

[A]

No.

[B]

But I always like when he's in something. Right. He's not. He's not in the. He's not a good actor really, if you think about it. But he's. He's good in his movies. I don't know how to explain it. In this movie. I loved him in this movie. He was so good.

[A]

I don't love Ziza stand up, but I like him on screen. Did you and I see a stand up together?

[B]

I saw him once. Yeah, But I don't know. I thought it also was a good. So it was a story about. I think this is an undefeated movie plotline where two people switch lives and you get perspective and they switch. Z is down in his luck. He lost his job. He lives in his car. Seth Rogen is a rich venture capital bro, and they switch lives. And it's so funny because after they do it, Keanu's like, see, your life isn't very good, is it? He's like, what are you talking about? This is amazing. Anytime there's a problem, I just throw money at it. And then he realizes anyway. So it's a. It's also a good take on class. I also watch the Life of Chuck, which is. I really liked it. And it's kind of movie where you watch it and it's like three movies in one. And when you figure out what it's actually about by the end, you either go, oh, that's really creative, or you go, oh, I hated it. I thought it was creative. It's a based on a Stephen King short story, which. Who reads short stories? Can we be honest?

[A]

That's such a great point. Anytime I hear a short story, I'm.

[B]

Like, where do you find it? Anyway, it's Stephen King and this is like a coming of age. It's about life and death. And I really, really liked it. I don't think it's a Michael movie.

[A]

Oh, it's definitely not. It's definitely not a Michael movie because I watched.

[B]

I really. The first 45 minutes are a Michael movie. Because the first 45 minutes. Okay.

[A]

No, I turned it off on the airplane.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Which is very rare.

[B]

So did you make it to the grandparents or not?

[A]

No.

[B]

Okay. So the grandparents of this movie are Mark Hamill and Sloan from Ferris Wheeler's Day Off. Like I know both of these people. Why do they. Why do I know them Anyway? All right. One more. Took the kids to see. We were nothing else to do after winter break. The last day took them to see Zootopia 2. Whatever. It was fine. It was good. The kids loved it. I know everyone has been really psyched about the return of original IP this year. But I. I heard Zootopia is just crushing the box off. So I pull up the top 10 from this year. Look at these. Look at these. It's all. It's all sequels. Besides Sinners, every single one is a sequel or a book or. It's.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

There's nothing new. It's Minecraft and Lido and Stitch and Superman and Jurassic Park.

[A]

And my dad is like, you. My dad texted me. Let's see what he texted me. Exactly. He watched one battle after another. Which, by the way, I bet on to win Best Picture. Um. Because I guess it's going to.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

You and I. He goes. I thought Frankenstein. There's just a random text. My dad. I thought Frankenstein was well done. I did not enjoy the DiCaprio movie.

[B]

Yeah. Thank you.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

You give us a badnik.

[A]

Yeah, I like Zootopia.

[B]

Also, I rewatched Fargo the other day. The scene where he shows the road level bumps. I think he stole that from Fargo. Fargo did the road level thing.

[A]

I love when the guy's smoking the cigarette. And that is. That is my favorite movie of all time.

[B]

I've heard you say it before. It's really probably once or twice a year.

[A]

Okay.

[B]

What do you got from your bedridden days?

[A]

Okay. This. Dude. I was on an absolute heater. This is like one of the benefits of being stuck in bed. It was. I was quarantined, like, completely by myself. I'm gonna start with two bed movies.

[B]

Okay.

[A]

Let me. Let me go this one first one that I did not care for. Train dreams.

[B]

Okay. I figured he wouldn't. I loved it.

[A]

It just. Just super boring. I. I get. It was like maybe a good film. Whatever. You're a film guy. When did that happen to you?

[B]

I just really. I just really enjoyed. I just thought about the simplicity of that guy's life. And I really appreciated it. He. He cut down the trees and he built the Train tracks. That was his. And then he had a little cabin on the. On the river. I really appreciated that.

[A]

All right. Okay. I watched. I like me. Did you know. So that was the John Candy documentary. Did you know that Colin Hanks produced and directed that?

[B]

Yeah. Pretty good, right? Ryan Reynolds, producer, too. Was that. Wasn't that really well done?

[A]

Holy cow. Holy cow. I cried, obviously. How could you not?

[B]

It was very good.

[A]

Un. Freaking believable. I am so. I'm a little bit. There's a big difference in. In our age gap in terms of, like, growing up. Because you were very much like a child of the 80s. I was born in 85, so I. I know John Candy from, like, the cameo in Home Alone and Cool Runnings and you're like an Uncle Buck. You're like a real John Candy guy, right? Yes, I was. A little bit later, I'm. Oh, Spaceballs. Of course.

[B]

Barf.

[A]

But what. What a monster of a person. And a good way, obviously. Just a tremendous human being. Amazing doc. Could not recommend it highly enough. And just like a great documentary too. Like, awesome.

[B]

Really well done. Yeah.

[A]

All right. So, Bonia, I already said before I got sick, that's a recommend. I'm going to be very specific with. With how I talk about these movies. All right. Influencers. That. Influencers. I was watching Sick or Not, sequel to Influencer. This is a shutter production. Fantastic. So good horror movie. Not quite. I guess it might be under the horror genre because I don't know where else you would put it. Is it a genre movie? I don't know what you call it. Thriller, suspense, horror, whatever. It's basically about this very attractive psychopath that kills influencers and like, takes over their life. And it's sort of like a modern spin on misery a little bit. Roofman. Did you see Roofman?

[B]

Okay. I started watching this last night.

[A]

This is a you movie.

[B]

Okay. I like it. Just breaking out of prison. To me. I'm in.

[A]

So Roofman is a throwback movie. I'm surprised they made it. You don't see movies like this anymore. This is the premier airplane movie. That might be a stretch, but it's a very good airplane. Watch. I probably like if I wouldn't necessarily fire it up at home on a Friday night. It's not that type of movie, in my opinion. Listen to this cast. Channing Tatum, Kirsten Dunst, Juno Temple, who I'll come back to later. Probably don't. Whatever. She's from Things. Peter Dinklage, Ben Mendelson, the guy from Atlanta.

[B]

And get out he's really good too.

[A]

The Kith Stanfield.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Like, unbelievable cast. And it was a good movie.

[B]

I'm enjoying it.

[A]

It was a good movie.

[B]

It's on Paramount plus.

[A]

Okay. What doesn't kill you? Now, this was. I. I'm just. I'm just going after it on Amazon. I'm just scrolling like blockbuster in 1997. What doesn't kill you? I came across this, and on the COVID I see Ethan Hawke, I see Mark Ruffalo, and I see Amanda Pete. And I'm like, I've never heard of this movie. 2008. Friends since childhood. Brian and Paulie do whatever it takes to survive in their hands. Hardscrabble, South Boston neighborhood. It's okay. Like, I'm not recommending it, per se. I. I mean, it was good enough. Good enough for it.

[B]

Looks like five other Ethan Hawke movies I've seen.

[A]

It does. It's. It's not. Yeah, it does. It's definitely not the town of the Departed. Like, so if you're into Boston crime, sure. Fired up. And if not, keep keep moving. Sisu. Sisu. Sisu. Sisu. This is strap in action. Hard recommend. Hard, hard recommend. And in fact, can't wait to watch sisu too. So let me just read you the plot and tell me if this sounds like a Michael movie. During the last days of World War II, a solitary prospector, he's a gold digger. Crosses paths with Nazis on a scorched earth retreat in northern Finland. When the soldiers decide to steal his gold, they quickly discover they just tangled with no ordinary miner. Non stop action.

[B]

That sounds like a Liam Neeson movie.

[A]

It does. Very good movie. All right. The Long Walk. The Stephen King movie. It was fine. Good enough. Not a recommend.

[B]

How many ideas does that guy have, though? He has a million ideas.

[A]

Cocaine. Hell of a drug. Okay. Love Story. Love Story was the highest grossing movie in 1970.

[B]

Okay, so you watched it because of the Bob Evans book.

[A]

Correct. So Bob Evans and Ally McGraw were married and Love Story saved the studio like before the Godfather. Love Story is a very good movie. That's. That's for. That's where the line. Love means never having to say you're sorry. That's where that line comes from. Certainly not a must watch, but it's a. It's a good romantic. Not. Not. It's definitely not a comedy. It's just a good romantic movie. All right. I tried and turned off the conversation. The Gina Hacking movie. I talked about the girl who got Away. I don't know what that is to turn that off. All right, last one. Last but definitely not least. And I hesitate to even recommend. I went back and forth. Should I even admit that I love this movie? Love this. Strong word that I really enjoyed this movie. Okay, I liked it. I loved it. The movie is called Killer Joe and I was listening to the rewatchables this morning. Bill Simmons had a mailbag episode and one of the listeners recommended a new category, which is worst scene to have somebody walk in on. And I nominate this movie, Killer Joe, which is rated NC17.

[B]

This is a McConaughey movie.

[A]

I nominate this as the absolute worst scene I've ever seen. That might be a stretch, but seriously, top five. Top five to have somebody walking on. So the movie is again, Juno Temple, who was in the Offer. She was much younger in this movie and had a disturbing role. Gina Gershon, Matthew McConaughey, Thomas Hayden Church and Emile Hirsch, who I love from Alpha Dog. Anytime I see that guy, I'm in. So here's the story. Emile Hirsch and Thomas Hayden church hire Matthew McConaughey as a hitman to kill Emile Hirsch as his dad's ex wife for the insurance money. That's the plot. It's from 2012. I had never heard of it. It's streaming on Prime. I'm surprised it's on the platform. NC17 Again, don't judge me, because it is. There is the. The one scene that I'm talking about. If you see it, you'll know it. If you saw it, you know it.

[B]

Wow.

[A]

Would never, would never ever happen today. And a matter of fact, Ben, you should watch this movie. You would enjoy it.

[B]

Okay. Would you watch it again?

[A]

Would I watch it again? Yeah.

[B]

Okay. All right.

[A]

Probably fast forward to that scene. But yeah, I'd watch it again.

[B]

All right.

[A]

So I had a great time.

[B]

Yeah. See, you had a tough time being sick. You watched 12 movies.

[A]

What else? There was also one. Oh, there was a Liam Newson Neeson movie that I watched, but I was like not paying attention, said, huh? A Liam Neeson movie that ranked like 80%. Like that never happens. It was like the Sinners of something. Did you see this movie?

[B]

No, but they're all the same.

[A]

Come on, Sinners. No, this was not the Saints and Sinners. I think I fell asleep. Whatever. I had a great time being six sucked. But watching 12 movies that I wouldn't have seen. Most of these almost worth it. Not quite, but almost.

[B]

Okay. Get your flu shots, kid.

[A]

Get your flu shots. All right. Good to be back. Feels good to be healthy. Thank you, everybody, for tuning in. As always, wishing everybody the best year of their lives. Animal spirits@the compoundnews.com we'll see you next time.

[B]

Thank you for defending my honor, everyone, for Michael calling me out. Appreciate it.

[A]

I was sick.

[B]

All right.