The Best Performing Stocks of 2025 (EP. 445)

Summary

Animal Spirits Podcast – EP. 445

Title: The Best Performing Stocks of 2025
Date: December 31, 2025
Hosts: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson

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Episode Overview

In this end-of-year episode, Michael and Ben record on a Saturday, reflecting on the 2025 stock market, best and worst performers, lessons from the year, the state of AI and private markets, shifting wealth trends, and spending patterns in retirement. Their usual candid banter brings personal anecdotes from bowling and family trips into discussions on investment psychology, generational wealth, and much more.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Family Life & Holiday Catch-ups (01:30–06:57)

• Michael is in Disney/Universal with his family; Ben shares his family’s bowling tradition over the holidays.
• Quick take on the business and expense of theme parks, especially regarding the cost of express passes at Universal.
  • Notable quote:
    “For four people, guess how much it is?... just for the one day, it was 1500 bucks.” — Michael (06:09)
• Reflection on how packed and expensive family vacations have become.

2. Investing Lessons Are Timeless (07:10–08:02)

• Ben observes that annual “investing lessons” all kind of repeat.
  • “It’s always the same novel… every novel I write is the same… and I fill in the details. And I feel like that’s the same thing for investing lessons.” — Ben (07:25)
• Michael: Don’t overtrade, don’t sell out of your plan.

3. 2025’s Best & Worst Performing Stocks (08:09–10:44)

• Best performers: Mainly tech—SanDisk, Western Digital, Micron, Seagate; picks and shovels for the AI boom.
• Surprise: Newmont (the sole gold miner in the S&P 500) had a stellar year.
• Worst performers: Highly recognizable consumer brands—The Trade Desk, Fiserv, Deckers, Lululemon, Nike, Chipotle barely missing the cut.

4. Riding the AI Revolution: Energy & Infrastructure Winners (10:50–13:42)

• Discussion of Fidelity’s research on the “AI Revolution.”
• Data center electricity consumption is soaring (terawatt hours, up and to the right).
• G.E. Vernova (spinoff) up 102% YTD, a beneficiary of growing power demands for AI.
  • “I mean… I can’t argue with the performance.” — Ben (13:12)

5. Hype Cycles: AI Isn’t Going Away, But Not All Will Win (13:43–15:33)

• “Is this the end for AI?” Both agree this sort of speculation is usually silly—AI is not all-or-nothing.
  • “It has to be all or nothing… and what if it’s not?” — Ben (14:27)
• Reference: cloud adoption never underwent the same scrutiny, yet quietly transformed everything.

6. Market Contrasts: Small Caps vs. International Small Cap Value (15:34–18:55)

• Small caps underperformed developed international peers by a historic margin (27% spread).
• Ben: DFA International Small Cap Value up 48%, US counterpart up only 10%.
  • “International Small cap value is absolutely crushing it this year.” — Ben (16:51)
• S&P 100 (large cap) profit margins soar, small cap (S&P 600) margins lag—AI investments didn’t compress big tech margins as expected.

7. FOMO for a Good Cause: Corporate Bonuses (18:55–19:14)

• Charles Schwab giving $1,000 to newborns of employees—a standout example of the new wave of employee perks.
  • “That’s a pretty good bonus, right?” — Ben (19:14)

8. The Explosive Growth of Family Offices (19:23–22:31)

• Definition: Ultra-high-net-worth (UHNW) households hiring entire teams to manage their money in-house.
• Family office AUM up 67% in five years; projected $9T by 2030, surpassing hedge funds.
  • “Do you or don’t you have a family office? There’s some status assigned to that.” — Ben (21:22)
• Privacy and personalized risk-taking are primary draws; performance vs. outside managers left open.

9. Consumer Pessimism & Survey Quality (22:33–24:58)

• Consumer sentiment as low as 1980 (the double-dip recession/Volcker era).
• Both hosts doubt survey reliability, pointing to changing societal psychology post-pandemic.

10. Crypto Markets: Post-ETF Malaise (24:58–27:30)

• Michael managed to withdraw his bitcoin from Robinhood after earlier difficulties.
• Market feels apathetic post-ETF launches and deregulation—the price, not tech, is driving narrative.
  • “It just seems like nobody cares about it right now.” — Michael (25:51)
• Ben: Bitcoin shines when price is up; when stagnant, investors lose interest.

11. Private Credit Booms in Risky Debt (28:06–30:45)

• FT reports private credit firms bought $136B in consumer debt (up nearly 14x YoY), especially in buy-now-pay-later, credit cards.
• Ben: Recent returns have validated the space; Michael warns about risks lurking in economic downturns.

12. Middle Age, Regret, and Over-Optimization (31:13–34:30)

• Q&A segment: A 30-year-old expresses regret for “playing it safe” in life; the hosts worry about youthful over-optimization and lack of memorable experiences.
  • “If that optimization causes you to not go out and have a drink with your friend or your brother...that’s not living life.” — Ben (33:50)
• Support for the value of strong relationships and lived experiences.

13. Nature vs. Nurture and Social Wiring (34:30–36:30)

• Personal stories about habits from childhood, cards as a social tradition, kids' unchangeable personalities.

14. Millennials & The Top 5% (36:35–40:14)

• WSJ data: Top 5% threshold now $300,000 (inflation-adjusted), up from $212K for Boomers.
• Fewer lawyers make the cut than before; finance/computer math steady.
• Societal/Income inequality has widened—more frequent vacations and more people with expensive phones are symptoms.
  • “Everybody has a $1500 phone. Is that … nuts?” — Michael (39:17)

15. Elite Education & Top Earnings (39:38–40:14)

• Elite private colleges boost 1%er odds by 60% over public flagship universities—choices/parental opportunities matter.

16. Retirement Spending Patterns & Financial Advice Trends (40:17–44:29)

• JP Morgan data shows retiree spending is front-loaded, decelerating sharply with age and health.
• Advisors now focus on convincing clients to spend in early retirement, not underspend.
• 401k plans “worked”—more Americans than ever save for retirement, 401k/IRA adoption far outpaces old-school pensions.
  • “There is now more people than ever saving for retirement even when you account for population growth versus the late 70s, early 80s.” — Ben (44:13)

17. Entertainment: Biopics, Video Games, & Recommendations (45:28–54:14)

• Biopics fatigue: Sam Altman (played by Andrew Garfield), Neil Diamond, Springsteen, and Bob Dylan films discussed with skepticism.
• Best Video Game Debate:
  • For Ben: “Mario Kart, and there is no other answer.” (47:17)
  • Michael: Remembers N64 Zelda boom, preference for classic titles.
• TV & Movie Recommendations:
  • Four Christmases has improved with age.
  • Stranger Things is a hit with Ben’s daughter, but later seasons feel repetitive.
  • The Offer (Godfather miniseries) highly recommended for fans.
  • Musings on “what if’s” in movie casting (Chris Farley as Shrek, etc.).

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Best Performing Stocks:
  • “Those top four names, those are pick and shovel. And those are not new, new companies either. Those are companies that have been around for a long time.” — Ben (10:29)
• AI Cycle Debate:
  • “What if it is—these two companies figure out how to work it, and these other companies figure out how to use it better… It’s not the whole thing crashes and burns.” — Ben (14:27)
• Small Cap Value Outperformance:
  • “This has to be the biggest spread ever, right? …can’t imagine there’s been a bigger spread than that ever.” — Ben (16:51)
• Family Office Growth:
  • “It’s kind of become the word for ultra high net worth families. Do you or don’t you have a family office? There’s some status assigned to that.” — Ben (21:22)
• Crypto Apathy:
  • “It just seems like nobody cares about it right now. Seems like apathy…” — Michael (25:51)
• Over-Optimization and Happiness:
  • “If that optimization causes you to not go out and have a drink with your friend…that's not living life.” — Ben (33:50)

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Important Timestamps & Segments

• [03:00] Universal/Disney Family Trip Rant
• [07:10] Timeless Investing Lessons
• [08:09] Best & Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks
• [12:00] AI Power Consumption & Utility Plays
• [15:34] Historic Performance Gap: Small vs. International Small Cap Value
• [19:23] The Rise of Family Offices
• [22:33] Consumer Sentiment Data Skepticism
• [24:58] Crypto Market Sentiment
• [28:06] Private Credit Moves into Consumer Debt
• [31:13] Middle-Age Regret, Over-Optimization
• [36:35] Millennials, Top Earners, and the Education Effect
• [40:17] Retirement Spending & Financial Advice
• [47:17] Mario Kart = GOAT?
• [49:36] Movie/TV Recommendations & The Offer

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Closing Thoughts

Michael and Ben wrap up their last show of 2025 with gratitude, highlighting the loyal audience and the community built around Animal Spirits. Their market wisdom is wrapped in warmth and wit, blending practical portfolio takeaways with the realities of life, family, and fun.

“You guys show up for us, we show up for you. We are so grateful… for everybody that listens.” — Michael (54:23)

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Recommendations

• Four Christmases (Ben)
• The Offer (Michael)
• Stranger Things (with caveats for later seasons, Ben)
• Book: The Men Who Would Be King (Michael)
• Book: Cameron Crowe biography (Ben)
• Best video game: Mario Kart (Ben)

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Summary Table of Topics

| Segment | Key Topic | Timestamp | |--------------------------|------------------------------|-----------------| | Family/Holiday Catch-up | Bowling/Disney | 01:30–06:57 | | Investing Lessons | Timeless advice | 07:10–08:02 | | Stock Performers Recap | S&P 500 leaders/laggards | 08:09–10:44 | | AI & Utilities | G.E. Vernova, power demand | 12:00–13:42 | | Small Cap vs Intl Value | Historic performance gap | 15:34–18:55 | | Family Offices | UHNW trends, structures | 19:23–22:31 | | Consumer Sentiment | Data skepticism | 22:33–24:58 | | Crypto State | Post-ETF landscape | 24:58–27:30 | | Private Credit Booms | Buy-now-pay-later risk | 28:06–30:45 | | Middle Age/Optimization | Regret, happiness | 31:13–34:30 | | Millennials & Income | Top 5% threshold, education | 36:35–40:14 | | Retirement Patterns | Spending, 401k success | 40:17–44:29 | | Entertainment Rec’s | Biopics, games, movies | 45:28–54:14 |

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Animal Spirits is back next week—maybe with 2026 predictions, maybe not.

Transcript

[Michael Batnik]

Today's episode is sponsored by Trade pmr. As a financial advisor, you're always looking for ways to strengthen client relationships and demonstrate value at Trade pmr. That's our focus too. That's why Trade PMR has launched the Asset Match program, which we believe is an industry first program designed to offer your clients a benefit once exclusive to retail customers. Through March 31, we're offering a 50 basis point match on all eligible client deposits into their Trade PMR accounts.

[Ben Carlson]

AssetMatch provides tangible value to your clients will notice and is another example of how Trade PMR supports independent advisors. To learn more, please visit the link in the show Notes. Trade PMR Inc. Member FINRA SIPC Security is offered through Trade PMR Inc. Trade PMR Inc. Is a wholly owned subsidiary of Robinhood Markets, Inc. Please review the full terms and conditions at the link in the show Notes for complete rules, requirements and obligations that apply to participation in this program.

[Podcast Narrator]

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

[Michael Batnik]

Welcome to Animal Sports with Michael and Ben. It is Saturday, 2:30. Thank you to Big John for hopping on. This is the only time that worked for me because I'm with my family down in Disney.

[Ben Carlson]

This might be our first weekend recording ever. And this actually worked out for me too because the big thing we do with my family every year in the holidays is we go bowling. We're a bowling family. It's just a tradition.

[Michael Batnik]

Like once a year or around the.

[Ben Carlson]

Christmas break we try to go bowling. But we, we've always just. Bowling has just been a thing with my family.

[Michael Batnik]

I feel like, I feel like you're a good bowler.

[Ben Carlson]

I was just gonna say none of us are really good bowlers, but I just. Man, I just bowled two 120 plus games. For me. That's, that's really good. So.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, 120 plus.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I, I scored over 120 in two games in a row. So.

[Michael Batnik]

Do you know that I. Do you know that I took a, I took a. I took a college. I took a bowling class in college. This might shock you. This might shock you. It was at a community college. Yes, yes, I got credits.

[Ben Carlson]

That sounds Like, a lot of fun to me, actually, I think bowling is just. It's an undefeated family activity. The kids love it, the adults love it. So there's literally a bowling alley across the street from my office. So I went bowling with a family. And, you know, pitchers of beer are involved, obviously. And I bowled two. I bowled 128 and 122 or something. And I walked across the street. Now I'm here. Recording worked out perfectly. Yeah. And I didn't have to deal with getting the kids out of there, so it was perfect. On a Saturday recording, we make it work. Do you want to get stuff now or save it?

[Michael Batnik]

Thank you for doing this. Well, I don't have a ton of Disney stuff because we spent two days at Universal. Actually, you know what? This is a racket. So we stayed at a property that's associated with Universal. So there's three parks. Okay. There's Epic, which is the new one. And then there's the old school, Universal Studios, which I haven't been to in 30 years. And then there's Islands of an Adventure. So Universal Studios.

[Ben Carlson]

So I've never done any Universal parks. Is it. I've heard it's got to be a different experience than Disney.

[Michael Batnik]

It's. It's good. Like, it's okay.

[Ben Carlson]

It's good. I did not feel like second rate be in the is good or something. I didn't know.

[Michael Batnik]

Listen, it's, it's, it's. It's not like Six Flags. Like, it's. It's a legitimate park. They have a good operation. I haven't been to Disney in three years, so I wish I had like a better. But I don't think there's a big drop off is what I'm saying. However, get out of my face. Leave me alone. Kobe is so annoying. I've got one of those kids. He's in my face. Talk about me, talk about me, talk about me.

[Ben Carlson]

My kids always say that too. Hey, can I be on your podcast?

[Michael Batnik]

I love him, but. Yeah, he loves it. He loves to be the annoying kid.

[Ben Carlson]

I think it's called being a boy. I think it's just a boy thing.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know. My other one's very different personality. I'm not describing as annoying.

[Ben Carlson]

So you're having a fun family trip then? Family trip, not vacation. Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

It's not the most relaxing thing, but I love it. I really do. I enjoyed the shit out of this.

[Ben Carlson]

As much as I complained about it. I realized that I'm just. Now I've been ingratiated into the Disney culture. I'm a Disney person now because I've done it so many times, even though I've really fought it the whole way.

[Michael Batnik]

So I was excited leading up to this, and then the day before, I was like, wait a minute. Why are we going back to Disney? It's like, is this a bad idea? I love it. All right, so the. The two parks, Islands of Adventure and the old school, Universal Studios. The property that we're staying at comes with the Fast Pass. Okay. Or the Express Lane. Epic. So we got there at about 11, and we said, you know what? Let's just. Let's just bang out Epic today. The Express Pass did not come with it. So that's a separate thing for people. Guess how much you think it is now, mind you, I'm looking at. I'm looking at the app, right? So the wait time for these rides, for the rides that you want to go on is literally two and a half hours. Now, I understand it's a luxury that we're able to pay for this and to say, oh, like, I could never do that, because I. Obviously, most people have to, but for me, this is like, if you could afford. It's money. It's money well spent, but it's a fortune.

[Ben Carlson]

I agree.

[Michael Batnik]

So for. For four people, guess how much it is?

[Ben Carlson]

So I think I might know because we had an extra day in Disney. We were down there last month, and the last day, we said, let's leave it as a pool day. And I said, man, the kids love roller coasters so much. What if we went to Universal and we pulled up the prices? And I think for five of us, it would have been $3,000 or something for all the fast passes and everything. I mean, that was because we did it last minute, but it's a lot of money.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, so. So just for the one day, it was 1500 bucks.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that's. And it's all packed as a park.

[Michael Batnik]

It's outrageous. The park. The park was busy. I mean, obviously. But, like, listen, I saw somebody. I saw somebody posting about Disney and how busy it is and how, you know, this looks like hell. And I was thinking to myself, oh, no, why am I doing this? But then I had a realization. Yeah, I mean, obviously it's busy. It's dizzy. It's always busy. There is a capacity. There is a capacity, right? It's not like they're going to be 140%. Like, there is a limited number of tickets, and obviously they sell everyone during this time of the year as A.

[Ben Carlson]

Personal finance guy, though I always find myself when there's that many crowds going. I wonder what percentage of people here are just ringing up that credit card debt. Everyone can't afford it anyway.

[Michael Batnik]

Deeply uninteresting for the audience. But let me just leave it with this. The Universal is good. Like if it's only. It's, it's a 20 minute ride. So if you're gonna do Disney and you're interested, you might as well do it. It's 20 minutes.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. So I feel like we're in the season of stock market investing lessons, right? So here's the 20, 25 investing lessons. And then people list off the things. And I had a realization today, and this is not a new realization. There was this French author, the name escapes me. And he won the Nobel Prize for literature a decade ago or so. And his speech, he gave this beautiful French phrase and the meaning was, the translation was, it's always the same novel. And his point was every novel I write is the same. Like the plot beats the characters. Right. It's all the same. And I fill in the details. And I feel like that's the same thing for investing lessons. Regard. It's, it's, it's just don't let the fear. Agreed. To get to you. Get to you. Don't panic. Don't like sell out of your plan. Don't. Whatever. I feel like the investing lessons that you give are always going to be the same and they're, they're never going to change. Fair enough.

[Michael Batnik]

Don't over trade. Don't buy silver at 35 and sell it at 40. God. You freaking idiot. I'm talking to myself here.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, wait, wait. You. Okay? So I had this in here later. So I put this chart of silver and gold in here and silver's up 170 this year and gold's up 70. And the silver chart, if you want to talk about like an AI bubble or something. Why is silver up so much this year? Please make it make sense to me. I don't get it. Just because it's like the riskier version of gold.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know.

[Ben Carlson]

Why is silver up 170 this year?

[Michael Batnik]

I don't.

[Ben Carlson]

In a technological. We're having a boom in technological innovation.

[Michael Batnik]

Are all of the data centers built with silver?

[Ben Carlson]

Do you see this chart? It's unbelievable.

[Michael Batnik]

Ben, not did I see that chart. I can't stop looking at it. I sold it a long time ago. It's. It pains me.

[Ben Carlson]

I think it's hilarious that you actually bought Silver. Why did you buy silver?

[Michael Batnik]

Because it was breaking out. And then I think I sold the front. I mean, I think I sold it for like a 25% gain. I felt like a genius.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, so I, I put in the top 10 best and worst performing stocks of the S and P this year. And it's kind of funny, speaking of silver, you look at some of these and it's, it's technology and it makes sense. Like SanDisk and Western Digital and Micron and Seagate Technologies.

[Michael Batnik]

Those are the. Do I have to say what those are?

[Ben Carlson]

What?

[Michael Batnik]

They're, they're the picks and shovels.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. Warner Brothers is on there, which is funny. But then Newmont is on there, which is a mining company.

[Michael Batnik]

The only mining company. The only mining. The only gold miner in the S and P 500.

[Ben Carlson]

Is it really?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. And then when I, when I like, started to get really interested in the stock market, gold miners were hot. And there was a lot of them. Newmont, Barrick, I think there was one El Dorado. There was a million of them. Not a million. There was probably six or seven. And I think there was probably a lot of consolidation and it was a horrendous. It's been a horrendous 15 years for gold miners until 2025.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, they're going nuts. And if you look at the worst performing stocks. So those stocks are up anywhere. The best performing stocks are up any. This is the S and P up from like 130 to 600%. SanDisk is the best performer so far. The worst performers. There's a lot of names you actually know down anywhere from 40 to 70%. The trade desk, Fiserv, Deckers Outdoor. Which shoes? Lululemon's on here.

[Michael Batnik]

Target.

[Ben Carlson]

Chipotle was. Chipotle was the 11th one, I think. Barely missed. So there's, there's Target on there.

[Michael Batnik]

Nike.

[Ben Carlson]

Target is not on there. No, not as Nike. Nike's in my personal portfolio. Probably should be the. One of the worst performers anyway. I, I always think it's kind of interesting to look at these, these things. But you're right. Those top four names, those are pick and shovel. And those are not new, new companies either. Those are companies that have been around for a long time.

[Michael Batnik]

Those were like.com bubble stocks.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, yes, exactly.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, this next segment is brought to you by our friends at Fidelity. They did a post like they have a 2020, and in there, one of them, there's like six different modules. And one of them is riding the AI Revolution. How fidelity managers search for the potential winners of tomorrow. We've got the link in the show notes in case you're interested. And some of the charts that I grabbed here, if you're thinking of punching myself in the face. As I say, playing the AI trade like the hyperscalers, the semiconductors, the manufacturers, the. All of those players like the. The story can change and who knows who's going to win and blah blah, blah. But I feel like the electricity, like the power plays. I mean obviously they worked in 2025. A lot easier to look back and then look forward. But look at this chart. Total electricity consumption by U.S. data centers and the, the Y axis terawatt hours. I don't know what terawatt is, but like let's say it's a trillion. Something. Maybe. I don't know. And this is up into the right. I don't, I. I don't know enough about this to say what could stop this? Maybe something, an asteroid. But then they've got the elect a pie chart.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, so should everyone buy utility stocks? Because all of our electricity bills are going to go through the roof because of this. Look at this.

[Michael Batnik]

And also, and also so electricity generation capacity by fuel type. Nat. Gas is the most. Is the most, generates the most electricity then coal, then wind, solar, nuclear, hydro. Okay. And they.

[Ben Carlson]

It's funny because so. So AI could be like a commodities play in some ways or it is, I guess.

[Michael Batnik]

There is already an index for like man, what's it called? The semiconductor. Gosh dang it. An index for. Mark Rubenson just wrote about this. Ah, who cares? I can't remember. Anyway, if the Fidelity says if we need power now, the main source is gas turbines, they highlight G.E. vernova. All right. G.E. vernova is the energy company, Ben, that was spun off in 2024. They do a lot of turbine orders. Look at this chart. Up 100. Up 102% year to date.

[Ben Carlson]

I mean it sounds like one of the families from Romeo and Juliet, but I can't argue the performance.

[Michael Batnik]

Is that the middle of middle light talking?

[Ben Carlson]

The Verona family, right? With the Capulettes and the. It's possible. But when you're at a bowling alley though, you have to drink a light beer, right? You have no other choice.

[Michael Batnik]

I mean, yeah, pictures of pictures of dark. That doesn't work. Ben, a couple of weeks ago, credit to us, after the Nvidia story and after the Oracle, you and I were very emphatically like no way is this the end. Like no way.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

And I guess in hindsight that maybe we pounded the table too hard because who knows, it could have been the end, but 2026 is not going to be the end either, is it?

[Ben Carlson]

I don't think so. It's hard to see.

[Michael Batnik]

And I guess, you know, you know, I reject this whole premise, this whole notion, and I'm guilty of it because I just, I'm talking like it's going to end as if. What, what does that even mean? Like, AI is not going to be a thing.

[Ben Carlson]

I thought about this too, and I want. So you and Josh and I next week are going to have a live show for tcaf, right? I want to talk about this then with him, but I want to plant the seed a little bit here. I feel like people keep putting this stuff all in one big bucket. Like it's either going to succeed or it's going to fail. And it's all or nothing, right?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

And. But what if it is? Like, hey, listen, these two companies figure out how to work it, and these other companies figure out how to use it better. And these companies, they do crash and burn, but it doesn't bring the whole thing down. That's, I think that's the, the way people are thinking about it that could be misinterpreted or misunderstood is that it's like it has to be all or nothing. And what if it just doesn't and it's Google ends up being the winner and OpenAI is loser, someone is the winner, someone is a loser and someone is in the middle and it's not. The whole thing crashes and burns.

[Michael Batnik]

I think the reason why we, why we talk about this is just the expectations, the amount of spend. It does feel like it's easy to talk in all or nothing. But we never spoke about this with the cloud, for example. And obviously the cloud is not in the same universe as far as like disruption potential as AI will be. Right. But like, imagine you spoke about like every new category like that. Like, oh, is the cloud. Is this it for the cloud, right?

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. Right.

[Michael Batnik]

Is this it?

[Ben Carlson]

This is either the beginning or the end. Right. And it's just gonna, you're right. What if it just keeps going? I think that's the thing that people aren't really prepared for.

[Michael Batnik]

I had Shark make a few charts for me. We stole this one from somebody. Did he give them credit? My bad. I, I, you know what? I think I took this from S and P. I asked him to recreate this chart just like, for verification purposes. Yes, we did take it from SMB. Okay. It's a 12 month trailing relative return of the S&P 600. All right, that's the small caps versus S&P developed X US. Now why did they make this chart? I'm not quite sure but it is a bit of a face blower, is it not? Because what we're seeing is it's the worst 12 month performance for the, for the small cap 600 versus developed stocks. Now if you think about this in the context of where we were coming into the year and Liberation Day and main streets turn and small businesses were going to win and obviously you know this, The S&P 600 is not quite small business, but it's a, it's, it's a, it's a proxy. And the fact that foreign stocks outperformed our small businesses, small public businesses by the widest margin in the history of this data set. At least as far as we back have it going back to 2008. I don't know what it says but it's interesting.

[Ben Carlson]

So I don't have this chart in here but if you look at. I shared this on Slack with you guys a couple weeks ago on our research channel. If you look at. So DDFA has the US small cap value and the international small cap value ETFs. Okay. And we use some of these for clients. The DFA International Small Cap Value fund is up 48% this year. The US small cap value is up 10%. So that's not like you can't say that's a currency thing. Right? The US dollar fell. International Small cap value is absolutely crushing it this year and they're out performing the US counterparts by almost 40%. It's unbelievable. So it's not just developed markets. It's US or developed. Small cap International is crushing it too. That has to be, this has to be the biggest spread ever, right? And you show the. Matt's chart here shows that since 2008. I can't imagine there's been a bigger spread than that ever.

[Michael Batnik]

So what is the exact spread? It's 27%, right? Huh. All right, one more. I like small caps going to 2026. There I said it. Can't help it. It's how I feel. Ben, last week, remember Matt has a chart showing that the profit margins for the S&P 100 versus the S&P 600. The spread is basically at an all time high. You've got 15.7% for the S&P 100 and just 5.9 for the S&P 600. By the way, look at the S&P 600 relative to itself. The profit margins peaked three, four years ago.

[Ben Carlson]

That is surprising. So this AI has to close this gap. But here's my big takeaway from this chart. How is it possible that the hyperscalers spent so much money on AI and profit margins still increased this year? That's kind of unbelievable, isn't it? How did profit margins not get eaten up by all the capex that they had? That's incredible.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. All right. Last week, Ben, we talked about FOMO for a good cause. And we've got more of it. Charles Schwab is joining in. Michael Dell tweeted this. Adding $1,000 to the accounts of employees, newborn children.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, wow. That's a pretty good bonus, right? That's not bad.

[Michael Batnik]

Love it.

[Ben Carlson]

So Charles Schwab, the company, not the person. All right, so Gungeon at the Wall Street Journal had a piece about family offices. Family offices have become the new power players on Wall Street. It's funny because my wife and daughter the other day, they were joking, but they're, they're huge Taylor Swift people. They go, hey, what? How come Ritholtz doesn't manage money for Taylor Swift? And I said, that's funny. She obviously has a family office. If you have that much money, you, you have a family office. And here's some of the numbers. Family offices.

[Michael Batnik]

Wait, Ben, hold on. Can you just explain? I feel like most people have no idea what a family office is.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, So a family office is essentially you hire people internally to manage your money. You don't give your money to a ReyholdsWealth Management or a Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan. You hire people to literally, literally run the money for you in house. You hire your own portfolio managers, your own cio, all this stuff. And according to Gungen at the Wall Street Journal, family Offices recently oversaw 5.5 trillion in wealth. A 67% jump from five years ago. According to Deloitte, that should rise to 9 trillion by 2030. So it says in the coming years, these offices will manage more money than hedge fund firms. That, that's kind of a face blower, right? But it's funny, this, a lot of this is also a status thing. So it's. So they interview this guy who's a, who manages money at U.S. bank for these families. He said it's kind of become the word for ultra high net worth families. Do you or don't you have a family office? And they said there's some status assigned to that. You're at a cocktail party talking about it. So this Is like one of those things, like, hey, do you have your own foundation? Do you have a family office? If you're really rich, Right. You fly private, you have a family office. Right? I don't have a wealth manager. I have a family office. That's a thing. Now the question is, do you get better results because you have your own people internally versus hiring out at a firm? I don't know. Do you think the people that have family offices even think about that kind of comparison?

[Michael Batnik]

No.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, is it really worth it to me or is it because for some people, I think it's also like a privacy thing. I don't want potentially all these other people at a big firm to see how much money I have and see the movements of the money and where it's going. I want to keep it. I think that's a big thing for people's privacy when you get that much money.

[Michael Batnik]

My knee jerk reaction was if you have a family office, the people that work for you, and I am making this up and I am generalizing, the people that work for you, their primary job is not to get fired.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. There's a big element of career risk there. I totally.

[Michael Batnik]

What you're going to experience is basically like a reflection of what you want to happen, how much risk you want to take.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

Like it's, you're not going to have people say like, disagree to the extent that they're going to get fired.

[Ben Carlson]

It's like, wait, this is a right.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, I don't know. I'm sure, I'm sure it depends is the answer. But.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, but, but the fact that the, the growth is so big, that just shows how rich people are just getting way richer. Right? Yeah, because I think they, they say if you have, I don't know, 100 million and up or something, you could consider a family office.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, how much does it cost a family office?

[Ben Carlson]

That's the thing. You're paying salaries, you're paying taxes and Social Security, all this stuff. It's the, the cost of running it. Are, are much higher too. That's the, that's the trade off. Okay, I want to talk economy real quick. So the U.S. index of consumer Sentiment. A bunch of people are commenting on this. I saw last week. It's now at the lowest point since early 1980. Let me rewind you to 1980. What was happening? Paul Volcker took the fed funds rate to 20%. The US had two recessions in the span of three years. We had 7% inflation, I think 7 1/2% inflation for the entire 70s for a 12 year period from 1970 to 1982. Inflation was just crushing. Everyone was getting crushed by inflation. We are now at the same level of consumer sentiment as we were back in 1980.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay, counterpoint, and we've obviously debunked this many times. The quality of the survey data is shit, people. Don't you, I forget who, I forget whose work we cited. Like, people just don't answer these questions anymore. It's a, the, the, the, the sample size or whatever. I'm. Words escape me if my brain is broken right now. Forgive me, but like the quality of the respond, the respondees, it's just, it's garbage. It's garbage in, garbage out. This is not real life.

[Ben Carlson]

I also think, I think the pandemic broke brains. I think the, the 2008 crisis broke a lot of brains when it comes to investing and such. And I think the pandemic like just shattered in terms of this sentiment data. And I think it's never ever going to be the same. You're right. It's a lot of. It is people not answering and the survey quality is worse and people lying and all this stuff. But I, I do also think that it's just, I think the pandemic just altered our brains forever. It's never, I don't think it's, I don't think we're ever going back to like, hey, we're gonna get normal consumer center readings now.

[Michael Batnik]

Absent that one period from like, I don't know, 90, 92 to 99, like when I guess the mood of the nation was like pretty okay, maybe the 50s, I don't know. I feel like the nation's mood, it ebbs and flows, but I don't know, is it ever awesome?

[Ben Carlson]

The creation of social media and the pandemic I think has altered this forever and it's never going back to what it was.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, Ben, Good news with Robinhood. After enough attempts at moving $5,000, they said, hey, you know what? I think this guy's good for it. Just let him take his money. So they, they lifted my limit. Although, wait, is it because I'm in Florida? No, I don't think so.

[Ben Carlson]

I don't know what they lift it to, they double it or what.

[Michael Batnik]

I had, I had $15,000 left of Bitcoin and I was able to move all of it. There's no restrictions now.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, I guess it makes sense that moving money should not be ultra, ultra easy, but sometimes when you're doing it, you feel like, why can't this just be easier?

[Michael Batnik]

I feel like the point of the blockchain is to make financial transactions easier. By the way, I mentioned last week that I'm going to sell more crypto and when the new year turns over, like, there's just. It's just like, not. There's nothing going on in crypto.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

I know. Maybe the price is the only thing. Sure. The. The crypto people will tell you that there's projects and stable coins and blah, blah, blah. It just seems like nobody cares anymore. And. And can it get its mojo back? Like, listen, I'm not selling all of it, like, hardly, but. And yeah, the answer is yes, absolutely. Could that. That's the weird thing about bitcoin. It can get its mojo back anytime for any reason, for no reason. So I wouldn't be surprised at all. But it just seems like nobody cares about it right now. Seems like apath.

[Ben Carlson]

I do feel like bitcoin is the ultimate price drives narrative more than anything else. When bitcoin is going down or it's going nowhere, you go, what? What is this even for? What are they doing? Nothing's happening. And what's going up? You go, nothing can stop this. What could ever stop that? You know, because there's so much money flowing in and no one's going to sell. And I feel like that more than any other asset class has that. But you're right, it does have that feeling now of like, okay, we got the ETFs now what. What are you going to do?

[Michael Batnik]

But then again, like, but that those were the big catalysts was the ETFs, it was deregulations, all that sort of stuff. And like, there's not like another thing. And it's not said the price can't work, but, oh, the catalysts are played out.

[Ben Carlson]

I think I said this at the time, like, what happens if we get all this deregulation for crypto? And then people go, okay, then what? Right? Like, we got deregulation. What are you going to do with all that deregulation? If there's nothing to do with it, then what does it even mean? Listen, we know, we both know a lot of smart people who are still like, listen, crypto is going to create the Rails, the new Rails of the financial system. That's what it's going to do. It's going to be the payments, it's going to be the.

[Michael Batnik]

And maybe it already is with the stablecoin stuff. Like, there's a lot more stablecoin transactions than there are with Visa Mastercard But I guess the thing is like, well what does it, what does it have to do with bitcoin?

[Ben Carlson]

True. I think gold and silver obviously to another took a lot of the shine off of bitcoin this year. And I'm sure a lot of people go, wait, I could have just owned this other thing instead of bitcoin and done way better. I keep thinking this is a minor black eye for bitcoin. The fact that gold did so well this year during a technological bubble, revolution, whatever you want to call it, it's surprising because it's been a risk on, risk off asset. And bitcoin being risk off in this kind of year, it's kind of bizarre.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, let's talk some private market stuff. So I've been pretty sober, I think about the risks of private credit, especially direct lending. I think I've been less hysterical than some folks. But like when I'm talking about, hey listen, these are loans, right? The banks used to make these loans, these syndicated loans. Now, now Blackstone is making the loans like, and I think it's for the most part, even though there's some shenanigans, even though there's some companies that have, that have been frauds and, and, and defaulted, like yeah, there's defaults in public credit too. It's not, it's not just here. However, this is definitely this, this raised my eyebrows. All right, story from the FT. Private credit firms snapped up nearly 14 times as much consumer debt this year as in 2024, piling into riskier areas such as credit cards and buy now pay later debt. In 2025, private credit groups including the likes of KKR Blue Al and 6th street either purchase or struck so called forward flow agreements purchase $136 billion of consumer loans according to figures compiled by KBW analysts. That number compared with just 10 billion in the previous year. Now I will also say that these are not dumb people. KKR Blue Island, 6th Street. That's actually in fact the opposite. But yeah, this is, this is, this is, this is worth monitoring.

[Ben Carlson]

But haven't we learned that the buy now pay later, like the default rates on those are surprisingly low, very low.

[Michael Batnik]

Also, but also in a benign economic environment. Now the counterpoint Ben, is like well yeah, this is, these are riskier debt. Guess what? In that article it also said that this is the most lucrative area of asset based finance, that JP Morgan made like 20 something percent on the credit card receivables, right?

[Ben Carlson]

Even if you get a 5% default rate or something. But isn't it just. You and I have talked about this. The risk for any of this stuff is what happens in a recession. I feel like that's the easiest risk you could possibly bring up.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. But you know what? It kind of. Not that I reject that argument, but what do you call 2022? Because in 2022, bonds got annihilated. And guess why private credit is so popular? Because they performed really well.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

We get. I think 2022 was not a stressful year for equity fixed income.

[Ben Carlson]

I think until we have an actual event in the economy, a true slowdown, a recession that lasts for a whole year or something, people aren't. Some people aren't going to trust this stuff.

[Michael Batnik]

And my counterpoint to that would be what comes out of a major recession unscathed are private credit loans could be the only thing that go down in value.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

You know what I mean? Like that. That argument is just so hollow.

[Ben Carlson]

Right, of course. Yeah. High yield is going to get crushed. It's like that's. That's what happens if there's a financial problem.

[Michael Batnik]

Wait, are you telling me that defaults will pick up in a recession? Holy shit. Stop the presses.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. We don't have recessions anymore, though, right? They last like two months. All right, someone sent us this, and this is from one of the Reddit channels, which I still. I'm too old to. In middle age to use Reddit, but when people post pictures of my. I read them.

[Michael Batnik]

Ben, you're not middle aged. The. The. The next article that we're going to talk about, it's all about millennials, and it said people age 29 to 44. And I'm pretty sure that includes you.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, middle age. I'm afraid that my responsible life choices have made me permanently boring and miserable. Since I'm 30 and I spent my entire 20s making all the right decisions, focused on my career, paid off debt aggressively, rarely went out, and avoided major risks. Everyone tells me I'm set up for life, financially stable, and I should be proud. But looking back, I realize I have no exciting stories, no memorable failures, and a very small circle of friends who mostly talk about mortgages and promotions. My anxiety told me that security is the ultimate goal. But now I have. Now that I have it, I feel an acute sense of regret and panic. And this. This is honestly one of my worries about young people. And you and I have talked about, like, the. The fact that drinking is, Is. Is careening lower and people don't do it as much anymore. I mean, come on, Ben.

[Michael Batnik]

Ben's in the podcast Bust.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I mean it's a great way to get with people and, and let loose a little bit. But I listened to this podcast the other day with Tib Ferris and Arthur Brooks. Arthur Brooks is, does some of the best writing he writes for the Atlantic. He wrote some of the best stuff on happiness and what makes us happy. And so I wanted to listen to it because he's, he's very good on this stuff about the fact that like money and happiness and what actually makes you happy. But they got into their morning routine stuff which is a Tim Ferriss trope, you know, and they talked about all this stuff about how they their morning routines are like down to a science. And Tim Ferriss made a comment and I'm not like throwing shade on him because I'm sure he has this stuff figured out, but he said, listen, my brother and I used to go out for martinis all the time. But I realized when I put my, my sleep band on, when I had one martini before I went to bed, it would tell me my sleep was horrible. And I think honestly this is no scientific understanding at all for me. I think those sleep things are totally bunk. And I think if it tells you at a good night's sleep or bad night's sleep, if it depends how you feel, not like what this thing tells you. Right? So he's like, that's why this had a.

[Michael Batnik]

Why do you need technology to tell you if you had a good sleep or not?

[Ben Carlson]

Exactly. So I think people who over optimize like that and if, if that optimization causes you to not go out and have a drink with your friend or your brother to like have a good time. Because what the research actually shows is that the best possible outcomes for happiness and longevity in life are relationships. It's how many relationships you have and guess what? Going out and maybe feeling crappy the next day, but you went out with your family or your friends and you had a good time. I think that's worth the trade off of not having a perfect you're the band on your arm told you you had a bad night's sleep. That's I think people, the over optimization crowd I think sometimes takes things way too far. And to me that's not living life.

[Michael Batnik]

I under optimize these. These are dorks to me. But you know what? Here's where I am and genuinely teach their own I don't care if somebody wants to over optimize.

[Ben Carlson]

That's their and I agree, you're right, some people, if they don't over optimize, they're not going to be happy. I just think you can take it too far. And I read a post.

[Michael Batnik]

But don't you think for the. For the most part, this is just how people are wired? Like, even this dork who wrote that that thread on Reddit, even if he can go back, let's be honest, people are. People are. People are how they are. And it just is. Like, I don't think people wake up and choose to be happy, disgruntled, anxious. Like, it's just how you were born, unfortunately. Like my son Kobe, he's annoying. He doesn't choose to be annoying. He can't help it.

[Ben Carlson]

I do. Having kids made me realize that more than any. The nature versus nurture thing, I think. And I look back at my own life, how many of the things in my life that happened because of the family I was born into? I think, like, recently, like, Michigan football has been going through a lot of stuff because their coach got in the scandal and stuff. And have you heard the Jim Gaffigan bit about, like, him being Catholic? He has all these kids and he's Catholic and he's like, listen, it's too late for me to change now. I was born Catholic. I've been Catholic my whole life. I can't change now. And some of this stuff is just the way you're born. You can't change. Like, I was born into a family that we have a friend group. We have some friends who don't play cards in our. Our families. I grew up playing cards my whole life. My kids are into games. Like, card games. Like, we love playing games and playing cards. And some people didn't grow up with that. And it's like, that's not their fault. They just didn't grow up playing cards. Yeah, it's like, it's. You're right. It's like so much of it is hardwired and how the circumstances you were born into and like, how your DNA or whatever evolved as a person, like, will dictate so much of your life that's out of your control.

[Michael Batnik]

I grew up with cards, too, which I'm fortunate for. Jinrami, was that a big one for you guys?

[Ben Carlson]

I like General me. Well, you played spades. And the big thing in the Midwest is euchre. Euchre.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know.

[Ben Carlson]

Euchre's a Midwest game. It's like, it's kind of like spades or hearts, but a little variation. Off to teach you sometime. It's a. I was.

[Michael Batnik]

I Was asking my dad if you're.

[Ben Carlson]

It's a Midwest thing.

[Michael Batnik]

I was talking to my dad about Kobe. I was like, was I like this? Because I, I definitely had, I had some growing up. And he said, I can't remember exactly what he said when it relates to, to Kobe, but he said, we, mom. And I didn't know what to do with you because I, I never did my homework ever, ever, ever. Like starting a kindergarten. I never did it. I just didn't care. I thought I was too smart, that I didn't need to do it. That didn't work out. So in the long run. But they. Yeah, my dad's like, genuinely like, we, we tried everything, and the more we push, the more you resisted. And I just. It's just who you are. For better and mostly for worse. But it just, you know, it just is.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. All right, that's a deep talk for the day. What's the millennial thing here?

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, okay, so this is an interesting article, Ben, and you are a millennial. So you're not middle aged. Stop it.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm literally the oldest millennial ever.

[Michael Batnik]

That's true. So the Wall Street Journal had an article, how the highest earning millennials Made it to the top of their generation. It used to be. And, and just this title is kind of interesting because millennials did especially like people that were in my age group coming to, coming into the workforce in 2007-2009. Not the best. Like I, I, I. How many people in my age group started at Bear Stearns and then six months later, the thing blew up.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that was. Yeah, not a great time.

[Michael Batnik]

Anyway, so the article has some data. It used to be doctors and lawyers. So they're talking about, like, how, how people in our generation got into the top 5%. What do they do? It used to be doctors and lawyers and the top 5%. So baby boomers in 1990, the top 5%, adjusted for inflation, was $212,000. Now it's $300,000.

[Ben Carlson]

Whoa.

[Michael Batnik]

And they have a chart showing the chances of reaching the top 5%. This is interesting one. So for the, for our, our parents cohort, you had a 30% chance, if you were a lawyer, of reaching the top 5%. Now it's just 20%. Finance around the same. Computer math around the same. What else in here is that much different? Not a ton, but I guess it's really legal. Too many lawyers.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, so don't go to law school, kids. That, that, that number, to me, that's a huge number. Again, inflation adjusted. The top 5%. So this is obviously a wealth inequality thing or an income inequality thing. Right. If you're at the top of the heap, you're doing so much better than people were before. And this, this makes sense just from our lived experience of how many rich people did we know back in the day versus now?

[Michael Batnik]

I was so my wife was commenting how seemingly everybody in my town is on vacation now. I, I don't live in a, a rich town like on the North Shore or anything like that, but I guess it's, it's an upper middle class neighborhood. Right? Like fairly diverse, but upper middle class in terms of incomes and growing up, I guess. Am I like misremembering? I don't remember people going on vacations like this. I don't think like people's parents had the money for this.

[Ben Carlson]

I think we took one trip a year and now if you're not taking four or five, you're like the outlier. It seems like it. Again, maybe this is just for us, it's like availability bias or something. But you're right, people take way more vacations than did in the past. I think that's a fact.

[Michael Batnik]

Also, I guess like just on this idea of just how different things are and money and like Everybody has a 1500 phone. Is that like lost on anyone how nuts that is? I mean, how much is an iPhone expensive? Everybody has one.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And it's a necessity now. That wasn't in the past. You're right.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, back to the article. One lesson. Not, I guess not shocking, but just interesting. Going to an elite private school rather than a public flagship university increases student chance of joining the top 1% of earners by roughly 60%.

[Ben Carlson]

Wow. It shouldn't be this way because you went to Harvard or Yale or wherever or Stanford that you ought that you have a better chance because it's on your resume of earning more money. It's kind of insane because of the choices you made from age, I don't.

[Michael Batnik]

Know, four parents made for the most part.

[Ben Carlson]

Or that. Yes. That's kind of amazing. And obviously part of it is just the people who went there helped their kids get in there. And that is amazing. Okay. JP Morgan has this retirement by numbers report which is pretty interesting. And they show retirement spending by every five years. So you start out age 60 to 64, then 65 to 69, all the way up to 95 plus. And it shows that each five years your spending decreases and it's pretty linear decrease. Right. Like five to six thousand every five years or so the amount of spending decreases. And our Tony Aizola, who we work with, he wrote this blog post and he works with clients. He's an advisor for us, and he calls it the first decade retirement plan. And he says that he tries to help his clients spend more money that first decade of retirement because that's when your health is better. So he says that, like, there's this new study that shows that the number of years people live in poor health is increasing because obviously medicine and everything is getting better. You can live longer, but a lot of those years are going to be in poor health potentially. So it's every. The average health life Expectancy now is 12.4 years, meaning time living in poor health for people at age 65, dying at 87. So the point is. Yeah, which, which kind of sounds like it stinks. The point is you want to front load that spending. And I think the die with zero guy said, like, your, your net worth should peak when you're like 55. And you should be spending it down from that point on when you're healthy and can enjoy it. And we talk a lot about this spending stuff. And I'll plug talking wealth again because someone else in the comments last week said, hey, you guys, don't didn't tell us about this enough, this talking wealth thing. So talking wealth is our channel for advisors. I talked to Stefan Sharkansky last week about how to beat the 4% rule, and his whole thing was how do we balance the risk of longevity, meaning you outlive your money versus people who chronically underspend. And he did, and we kind of explained in there. But this whole thing about how to spend your money in retirement is like, every time I write or talk about this, like, people have very, very strong thoughts about it. And I think it's one of these things in the financial advice space for the next 20 to 30 years is going to be one of the most important things that we figure out for people.

[Michael Batnik]

Is there anybody.

[Ben Carlson]

Such a puzzle.

[Michael Batnik]

Our advisors spend a ton of time and energy convincing our clients not to wait.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

Like, how many success stories do we have of the client that bought the second house or whatever? Like, we, we obviously celebrate that and.

[Ben Carlson]

We'Re really proud of Hike to the top of the mountain or whatever it is. Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, whatever it is. Is there, Is there another. Is there like, no, you shouldn't spend your money. Is there like, no, you shouldn't spend your money. Evangelists.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah. A lot of personal finance people are like that. Like, hey, you have to spend 2% of your wealth, otherwise you're going to run out of money. Like it's, there's a lot of people like that that can't help turn it around. But I think this is going to be one of the most important things the financial advice industry does in the coming years is helping baby boomers spend their money down. This is interesting from the Daily economy, which is a new one I've never heard about. It says 401ks built America's wealth and proved all the critics wrong. So there's this idea that hey, once pensions went away and everyone's on their own, people are screwed, they can't do it anymore. No one's going to save, everyone's out of luck. So it says around the time of the 401k tax code change there were 30 million defined benefit plan participants in private sector at an all time peak. So this is like late 70s, early 80s. That was nearly double the total in defined contribution or individual retirement plans such as 401k at the time. Today the number of active participants in defined benefit plans is down to 10 million. So 10 million people have pensions now versus 30 million at the peak. But there are almost 90 million people in defined contribution plans thanks to 401 s. The total number of workers with any retirement plan at all is at an all time high, even accounting for population growth. So all of the opt ins or the opt outs versus opt in, all that stuff has completely worked and there is now more people than ever saving for retirement even when you account for population growth versus the late 70s, early 80s. So actually 401 plans kind of sort of worked.

[Michael Batnik]

Just wait. They haven't even begun to work, Ben. Just wait until we get private investments in them, then they're really going to work.

[Ben Carlson]

But, but is it, how many? For years following the 2008 crisis, how many stories did we hear about the retirement crisis? Do you ever hear anything about that anymore?

[Michael Batnik]

Not much.

[Ben Carlson]

Obviously there are, there are some people, there are always going to be some people who basically rely on Social Security and that's it. And if we ever decide to break up Social Security somehow I think it's going to be the biggest mistake we ever make. But there are more people than ever who are investing in saving a 4.1k plan. Even if the average, I think the average balance they say or the median balance is like 200,000 or something. Which you think about it like that, that's obviously. Is it, I think it was like 200, but still that it's, it's much Better than people think. There wasn't this period where pensions covered everyone again, 30 million people. And I think the population at the time was 180 or 200 million or something in the US so even a kind of population growth, 401ks actually have worked.

[Michael Batnik]

Hell yeah. I saw an article. Andrew Garfield is going to be playing Sam Altman in a movie next year called Artificial.

[Ben Carlson]

You know what? Can we, can we stop making movies about people? The biography movies. Oh, wait, Bruce Springsteen 1. There's.

[Michael Batnik]

Wait, hang on.

[Ben Carlson]

There's too many of them.

[Michael Batnik]

So we. A couple weeks ago I, I was like, wait a minute, they're doing a Neil diamond one. It's too much. So actually, the Neil diamond one. So it's. It's Kate Hudson and. And Hugh Jackman. You haven't seen that yet.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, I saw the pre. I did not realize that was a Neil diamond one.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. It's not. It's a Neil Diamond. It's a Neil diamond tribute band.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh. Just like Saving Silverman.

[Michael Batnik]

So I. Actually, now I'm interested. Now. Now I'll go say it.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I didn't know what that one was about, but I. There's too many. Like, they. Do we have to do one of these for everyone? I mean, does everyone need their own biography movie? I don't care. Like, did anyone see the Bruce Springsteen one? Bob Dylan, when I thought chalmet is great, but like, it was just boring.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, it was boring.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, I got a question for you.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm gonna give you a setup here and then I want you to guess. So. Okay, I have an answer for the best video game of all time. We finally got our kids a video game system. We got a Nintendo Switch. Right. For some reason, we just never. Our kids are 11 and our twins are 8. It's the first video game system they've had. They played games on iPads, but they've never really been video game people. And so we played games all Christmas Day. We got them this. And um, I never went past like Sega Genesis in my house. And then like Nintendo 64.

[Michael Batnik]

You never went past Sega Genesis.

[Ben Carlson]

I know, I, I just, I wasn't a. I. We loved playing games, but I'm a. Some saying I never even got to like the, you know, Grand Theft Auto or like the world building games of today. So I'm a basic video game. So what's my favorite video game? What's the best video game of all time? According to me.

[Michael Batnik]

Punch out.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. No, it's Mario Kart. And there is no other answer. Okay. I've played all the iterations from Nintendo 64, Super Nintendo, and it's just the best game.

[Michael Batnik]

It really is. I mean, there, there's, There are clearly other better answers than that, but for you, I understand.

[Ben Carlson]

In college, in college, we would just. In terms of, like, the interaction, I'm sure people would say, like, Madden or something, you know, but in terms of the interaction with other people, because you can play with four people. So when in college, we would get back to the dorms my freshman year, we would watch two or three dating shows after all our classes were done, and then we would play Mario Kart the rest of the day until we, like, went to dinner. And it's because you can talk shit to other people. You get angry. It doesn't matter if you're bad at it. Right. It's just. It's the best game for multiple people.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Because we. We got Mario Kart for my kids, the new Super Mario World or whatever. Mario Kart World. And we played it. We've played it all day and all night for the last, like, three days. It's just. It's the best. And, man, I love smoking my kids in it. Like, they can't even touch me in Mario Kart. I'm still good after all these years.

[Michael Batnik]

I did love video games, but I stopped playing. I think Call of Duty was the last game that I played a lot. Do you remember? Do you remember? I'm a few years younger than you, but how, how massive Zelda was on N64 when that came out.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah. See, I never got in. I never got into, like, the world building games like that. I just, I kept it very simple.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

I never went.

[Michael Batnik]

Fair enough.

[Ben Carlson]

I could see you when you, when you decided to skip all your classes in college. I bet you played a lot of video games.

[Michael Batnik]

I did.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I did. All right, short show today. Let's do some recommendations. I got a few here. So I've got a new one on my annual Christmas list. I love watching holiday movies around Christmas. Christmas is by far my favorite holiday. And when I first saw it, it came out in 2008. Four Christmases with Vince Vaughn and Reese Witherspoon. It was a huge disappointment because that was when Vince Vaughn was on a heater. Right. He. It's not that far removed from Wedding Crashers and Old School and some of the movies. And it just. I thought it kind of landed like a dud. And four or five years ago, I picked it up again and I watch it again this year and, man, Vince Vaughn Was hilarious in that it's, it's actually better than I remembered. And each one of the parents, because they go to four Christmas because the two parents are both divorced. And it's Jon Voight and Robert Duvall and Sissy Spacek and what's Ted Danson's wife's name?

[Michael Batnik]

Mary.

[Ben Carlson]

Anyway. Yeah, Mary Steen Merchant.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

And every year it grows on me a little bit.

[Michael Batnik]

And I only saw it once.

[Ben Carlson]

Another great divorce movie. Have you ever, the more you watch.

[Michael Batnik]

It, have you ever heard of this movie? I saw this on Netflix. I was like, how have I not heard of this? Doesn't even make sense. The night before.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, it wasn't that good either. That was a Seth Rogen one.

[Michael Batnik]

So it's, it's Rogan, Anthony Mackie and Joseph Gordon Levitt. It's in 20. It came out in 2015. I've never heard of it.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

James Franco.

[Ben Carlson]

So I watched it when it came out and didn't, didn't care for it. Maybe it's one I should watch again. You know, actually it was not a bad one. Is, what is it? Christmas Office Party or Office Christmas Party? Jason Bateman one. That's not a bad one. So anyway, that, that one's on my annual list now. So my 11 year old Libby got into Stranger Things. I finally let her watch it and she plowed through it on her iPad on Netflix and we'd watch it together at night. She plowed through all four seasons in like three weeks and she just loves it. So she's like, she, she can't wait because the new season came out to watch it and I watched some of the end of season four with her again and I really liked the first season. I thought the last three seasons were like, boy, it's getting a little repetitive. I feel like we're doing the same thing over and over again. And the fifth season is kind of the same thing. Like, man, this is repetitive. She loves it. But it. So it felt like the last two seasons probably could have both just been movies, two and a half hour long movies. Because it seems like we're doing the same thing over and over again. But the problem is it's actually still kind of entertaining. And it's just, it looks good. Like the, the quality of it is very high. Even though the story and the plot, it's like, what are we doing here? It's the same thing over and over again. So anyway, I don't like, love the final season, but it's her watching it. Liking it makes it better. For me. And finally finishing Pluribus, the finale. Didn't you say you kind of gave up on it?

[Michael Batnik]

Well, I saw the first episode, and then I decided that I was gonna wait and hear from people like you to tell me if it was worth continuing. So should I watch it?

[Ben Carlson]

So the first episode, I said I worried that the first episode is so good, they're not gonna live up to it. And I feel like that's still true. Like, the. It's been downhill since the first episode. It got slower, and it's still interesting, but I feel like the first episode set the bar way too high. And ever since then, it's been kind of like, I'm out.

[Michael Batnik]

I'm going to pass.

[Ben Carlson]

I still. I think my wife likes it more than me. It's. It's interesting, but I feel like they. They could have gone a lot of different ways with it than they did, and it's just kind of like, okay, it's. It's okay. It's all right. I'm still watching it, but it's just. Just okay.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

So the. The season finished. Like, it's like, all right. It was fine. But the first episode was by far the best.

[Michael Batnik]

I finally finished. I finally. I finished the offer. If you're a big Godfather fan, you should watch it. If not, Skip. The guy that played Bob Evans was freaking awesome. He nailed it.

[Ben Carlson]

Really good, right?

[Michael Batnik]

Holy cow. So good.

[Ben Carlson]

Especially after reading that book. You see, like, he actually feels like he's playing that guy.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. So we were talking about over the last couple of weeks, like, how much I love the what ifs, right? In the NBA. Like, and. And in movies. So I learned a few more things. This is gonna blow your face, Ben. Chris Farley was supposed to play Shrek, man.

[Ben Carlson]

I feel like I heard that before, but. So he recorded right before he died.

[Michael Batnik]

He recorded, like, 90 of the movie, and then he died, and then they brought him Mike Myers.

[Ben Carlson]

Wow. I would love to hear his voice overlaid on it, because I can't picture anyone else besides Mike Myers doing it.

[Michael Batnik]

What else? Liam Neeson was supposed to play Lincoln.

[Ben Carlson]

Let's see that. I don't know, man. Seriously. Versus Daniel Day Lewis.

[Michael Batnik]

I have specific set of skills, so I. What book do I listen to? I listen to the Men who Would Be King, an almost epic tale of moguls, movies, and a company called Dreamwork. So it was about Geffen, Spielberg, and Katzenberg.

[Ben Carlson]

So this is where you got all this from?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I love books about movies.

[Michael Batnik]

So you said that you listened to The Cameron Co book last week.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. Very good.

[Michael Batnik]

So DreamWorks. DreamWorks made almost famous and it bombed at the box office. Did like 30 million bucks.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I think it's one of the gut legs later on.

[Michael Batnik]

I started listening to that book this morning. Yeah. Francis McDormand did a great job playing his mom.

[Ben Carlson]

Is he not just an amazing storyteller? Reading his book, it's so, like, it's awesome.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, he's much. He's much older than he looks.

[Ben Carlson]

He's got it. He's been making movies for a long time. Right.

[Michael Batnik]

He's got to be 65, 70, maybe. All right. It's the last show of the year for animal spirits. Want to thank everybody for listening? Emailing. I never take this for granted. As somebody who's a big consumer of different personalities, I grew up like a lifelong Howard fan. And, um, and just listen to podcasts. Like, I know how important it's to show up for the audience. So here. Here we are on Saturday. You guys show up for us, we show up for you. We are so grateful that out of all the things you choose to listen to, we're. We're part of the rotation, so could not be more grateful and thankful for. For everybody that listens.

[Ben Carlson]

We love our audience. Like, the emails that. Just the people that get us and our stuff, we're doing, like, the. We get a lot of emails from people and. Yeah, I think it really means a lot.

[Michael Batnik]

So. All right, Hope everybody has an incredible 2026. Hope all your resolutions, dreams, goals, family.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, wait, wait. Wanna get your 26. 26 predictions next week?

[Michael Batnik]

You know, I don't think I'm gonna do it. It's just. It's. It's too much. What?

[Ben Carlson]

It's an annual. Come on, man. When everyone else is sleeping tonight, after being tired of Disney, you get on your laptop and pound out some predictions.

[Michael Batnik]

But it's like. But you know what? It's like. It's so like. It's such nonsense. It's things that I think about. It's like half baked. Half baked ideas. I don't even think about it. I forgot what they were.

[Ben Carlson]

That's true. Like, just to have, like, hold ourselves accountable for them. Right? Yeah, just. We can put the title 2026 prediction.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay, everyone.

[Ben Carlson]

Next time, Ben.

[Michael Batnik]

Enjoy. Enjoy Scottsdale. I hope the pool is warm for you.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. Yeah. Yes. It better be. We're paying for it. Have fun at this.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, thank you, John and the production team. We'll see you next time.