The Biggest Risk in 2026 (EP. 444)

Summary

Animal Spirits Podcast – Episode 444: "The Biggest Risk in 2026"

Date: December 24, 2025
Hosts: Michael Batnick & Ben Carlson
Podcast: Animal Spirits by The Compound

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Episode Overview

In this end-of-year episode, Michael and Ben reflect on the wild ride that was 2025 in markets and investing, and look ahead to the "biggest risks" facing investors in 2026. They explore survey data about what market participants fear most, discuss the surging (and sometimes paradoxical) optimism around AI, dig into trends in stock valuations, ETF inflows, and the fate of different market segments like mid and small caps. The conversation swings from serious to personal, touching on charitable giving, financial nihilism among Gen Z, various market risks, the role of cash and wage growth, and even ends with pop culture, movies, and some touching personal stories.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. How 2025 Looked in Hindsight

• Despite drama, another "normal" year:

  • 2025 felt bizarre with high volatility, but zooming out, the annual return and drawdowns looked similar to many recent years.
    • Michael: "We had a 19% drawdown. We have a 17% return. Looks pretty much in line with every other year." [04:09]

• Market events during holidays:

  • Holidays rarely matter in markets, except for rare events like the "Mnuchin bottom" of Christmas Eve/Boxing Day 2018.

2. AI’s Impact & The “Biggest Risk” in 2026

• Fears about tech and AI a dominant theme:
  • Deutsche Bank survey: 57% picked "tech valuations plunge, AI enthusiasm wanes" as the biggest threat to 2026's market stability.
  • Michael pushes back on fears: "If everybody's worried about it, it probably won't happen." [06:57]
  • Ben: "Usually the big risk is something that we don’t see coming." [07:24]
• Oracle drawdown vs. AI boom:
  • Discussion of how Oracle's stock reacted worse to the OpenAI partnership instability than to the 2008 financial crisis, sparking debate over whether AI is still in a bubble or if that's already deflated.

3. Market Structure: Concentration, Drawdowns, and Valuations

• S&P 500 concentration:

  • Debate on whether the S&P’s top 10 stocks will reach 50% of the index, but both doubt that will occur imminently. [08:21]

• Drawdown context:

  • A 30% crash from here would merely erase 2025 gains, returning markets to January 2024 levels.
    • Ben: "If we had a 30% crash... it would bring us back to January 2024. And it doesn't seem to me like people were that unhappy in 2024." [09:20]

• Mid caps, small caps, and valuation gaps:

  • Bank of America data: US midcaps at lowest price/earnings ratio relative to S&P 500 in decades.
  • Michael: "There needs to be a catalyst, like people souring on the AI trade even further." [10:57]
  • Ben: "Don’t you think the catalyst is lower rates though? ...This seems almost too obvious to me." [11:01]

4. Outperformance & Market Internals

• Stock doubling trends:
  • Michael quizzes Ben: More S&P 500 stocks doubled in 2025 (13) than any year since 2013. Surprisingly, only three doubled in 2017’s steady bull market, compared to 12 in the manic 2021. [11:50]

5. Charitable Giving & Billionaire Philanthropy

• Public giving and social pressure:
  • Michael reflects on the pros and cons of public charitable donations and FOMO in philanthropy.
• Movement in billionaire giving:
  • Michael and Ben highlight Ray Dalio’s $75 million gift seeding educational investment accounts for Connecticut children, echoing Buffett’s philanthropy moves.
    • Ben: "Even if people go, oh, $250 per kid, what is that going to do? So what? It's something. It's better than nothing." [16:08]

6. Stocks vs. Real Estate & Cash Hoarding

• More household wealth in stocks than real estate:
  • Has historic precedent but the hosts wonder if this gap will only widen as property prices lag and equity investing becomes more accessible.
• Record ETF inflows & cash balances:
  • Nearly $1 trillion poured into equity-only ETFs in 2025.
  • Households are holding cash at near-record levels as a percent of assets, even within a long bull market.
    • Ben: "In a bull market, would you have assumed that we'd have record amounts of cash? ...This can't be true. This is crazy." [24:21]

7. Small Cap Resurgence

• Small cap rally since April:
  • Russell 2000 up 46% since April 8th, 2025, yet with little attention or inflows.
    • Ben: "Small caps have been on fire since April... and no one cares." [20:22, 20:36]

8. Financial Nihilism & Gen Z Investing Behavior

• Gambling, hopelessness, and risk-taking:
  • The hosts discuss Kyla Scanlon’s piece on Gen Z "financial nihilism," where easy access enables risk-taking and gambling, but much boils down to lowered barriers rather than true nihilism alone.
  • Ben: "It's easier to invest in the stock market now. Good thing. It's easier to gamble, probably bad thing." [34:54]

9. Trust in Economic Numbers & “Most Hated Expansion”

• Disbelief in economic data:

  • The hosts lament that a robust 4.3% GDP growth in Q3 is met with disbelief, and many don’t trust official inflation numbers.
    • Ben: "How many people would believe you if you said, yeah, the economy grew at 4.3% real in the third quarter?... Most people probably tell you it shrunk." [25:57]

• Wages vs. inflation:

  • Wages outpacing inflation for over a year, countering some of the gloom.

10. AI as Deflationary Force

• Debate on whether concerns about runaway inflation are overblown, given the powerful disinflationary effect of technology and productivity, particularly through AI.
  • Ben: “In 10 years we're going to go like, really? You thought inflation was going to stay high when the most deflationary technology in history was being adopted?” [42:57]

11. Financial Products & Market Trends

• Explosive growth in exotic ETFs:
  • 750 new ETFs launched, half involving single stocks, derivatives, or digital assets—driven by investor appetite for novelty and leverage. [22:24]
• Prediction markets, sports betting, and arbitrage:
  • Michael delves into "recreational prediction markets," betting against unlikely events for outsized but slow returns:
    • Michael: “So, for example, on Poly Market... betting that the Seahawks won't win the Super bowl... is only 86 cents. I feel like that should be 97 cents, 98 cents. The Seahawks aren't winning the super bowl.” [29:36–30:36]

12. Private, Alternative, & Real Estate Markets

• Liquidity issues in alternative funds:
  • Discussion of the Blue Rock private real estate fund, locked redemptions, forced conversions, and deep discounts upon listing.
  • Hosts warn that as more capital enters alternatives, these issues may be more common, requiring changes in fund structure.
    • Ben: “The Wealth Channel is going to push back against these structures when it happens.” [51:49]
    • Michael: "Advisors definitely should know better. I mean, come on." [52:14]

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

"If you zoom out and you just look at the annual return for the year and you look at the maximum drawdown... this year we had a 19% drawdown. We have a 17% return. Looks pretty much in line with every other year."
— Michael Batnick [04:09]

"Usually the big risk is something that we don’t see coming."
— Ben Carlson [07:24]

"A 30% crash from here for the US stock market... would bring us back to January 2024. And it doesn't seem to me like people were that unhappy in 2024."
— Ben Carlson [09:20]

"If you’re an equity investor, you gotta be able to live with [a 30% decline]."
— Michael Batnick [09:59]

"This is the most hated economic expansion ever. It's not a close second."
— Ben Carlson [25:57]

"In 10 years we're going to go like, really? You thought inflation was going to stay high when the most deflationary technology in history was being adopted?"
— Ben Carlson [42:57]

"People are going to blow themselves up doing this stuff. The volatility is crazy. You're putting three times leverage on a single stock. And guess what? This is what people want and the companies are going to give it to them."
— Ben Carlson [23:14]

"It is an event. It is spectacular. There's nothing like it. If he stops making them, I'd be perfectly thrilled. I definitely don't need to see another one."
— Michael Batnick (on Avatar movies) [61:50]

"I feel like my personal VIX was at an all-time high this year. That meant higher highs and lower lows... but that kind of stuff—those messages from listeners—really helped."
— Ben Carlson (on personal grief and support) [56:03–58:24]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 2025 Market Recap and "Weird" Year: 03:41–04:36
• AI Enthusiasm & Market Risk Survey: 06:25–07:57
• Concentration in S&P 500: 08:21–09:00
• Drawdown Context and Investors’ Emotional Resilience: 09:27–10:11
• Valuation Gaps: Mid/Small Caps vs. S&P: 10:57–11:27
• Charitable Giving and Billionaires’ Matching Gifts: 13:08–16:18
• Stock Market vs. Real Estate Wealth: 17:09–18:06
• Household Cash as “Dry Powder”: 24:21–25:00
• Disbelief in Economic Growth & Most-Hated Expansion: 25:57–27:18
• Financial Nihilism & Gambling Apps: 32:54–34:54, 45:18–46:39
• Prediction Markets and Sports Betting: 29:22–31:00
• Private Real Estate Fund Liquidity Crisis (Blue Rock): 48:36–51:49
• Wages vs Inflation: 40:45–41:46
• AI Deflationary Bias: 41:48–42:57
• Recommendation/Pop Culture Segment (Avatar, Cameron Crow memoir): 60:10–63:48
• Closing Reflection/Personal Grief and Listener Support: 56:03–58:31

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Final Thoughts & Tone

The hosts blend data-driven insight, historical perspective, and personal anecdotes, offering both levity and gravity. Their banter—often self-deprecating, sometimes sentimental—carries across market analysis, personal finance advice, and cultural commentary. This episode is an encapsulation of their approach: skeptical of hype and groupthink, comfortable airing doubts, and always rooting for investors to take a long-term, rational, and humane approach.

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Contact: [e-mail]
Full disclosures: https://ritholtzwealth.com/podcast-youtube-disclosures/

Transcript

[Michael Batnik]

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[Michael Batnik]

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[Podcast Narrator]

Welcome to Animal Spirits, a show about markets, life and investing. Join Michael Batnik and Ben Carlson as they talk about what they're reading, writing and watching. All opinions expressed by Michael and Ben are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Rithol's Wealth Management. This podcast podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon for any investment decisions. Clients of Ritholtz Wealth Management may maintain Positions in the securities discussed in this podcast.

[Michael Batnik]

Welcome to Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. As we wind on down the year. Man, can you believe it's over already? 2025 and the books. See ya.

[Ben Carlson]

It went so fast.

[Michael Batnik]

You know, I'm a big can youn Believe guy.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah. Can you believe it's already fall? Can you believe it's already winter? Every season you say it.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, I. I really can't.

[Ben Carlson]

Can you believe Christmas is in a couple days? I can't believe. Well, when this comes out, it'll be Christmas Eve. We used. We used to do the timestamp. When are we recording? You used to do that every show.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, that's right. It's. It's Tuesday, December 23rd. It's 9. 9:09 in the morning on the Eastern time. I saw. But.

[Ben Carlson]

But I feel like it doesn't matter for markets because markets around the holidays do not matter. Whatever happens in the markets around the holidays, it. It gets forgotten or washed away or. I guess we had the one year in 2018 where, remember the market bottomed on Christmas Eve? I do remember the Mnuchin bottom.

[Michael Batnik]

No, I thought. No, no, no. It was Boxer Day.

[Ben Carlson]

Was it? Okay, I thought. I thought it was Christmas Eve, but it was a Steve Mnuchin bottom like we had. We were in a legitimate bear market. That's the only time around the holidays I can remember that market's actually mattering. Otherwise, markets on the holidays don't matter. They shouldn't be open, really, if we're being honest.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, that's true. We got a GDP report this morning. Did you check it out?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I got it in the show notes here.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

Talk about.

[Michael Batnik]

All right. Turns out it was a bizarre year for the markets, as I mentioned last week. Least it felt weird. But if you zoom out and you just look at the annual return for the year and you look at the maximum drawdown, we've got this snazzy chart in exhibit A. It's exhibit a for advice.com for advisors that are listening. We. The chart shows the annual return alongside the maximum entry year drawdown. And this year we had a 19% drawdown. We have a 17% return. Looks pretty much in line with every other year.

[Ben Carlson]

Here's the great thing about exhibit A charts. They're updated constantly. Right. It's not like static.

[Michael Batnik]

Daily, to be precise, daily updates.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. Yeah. So as these numbers change, so too will the charts. But yes, you're right. If you looked at this in a vacuum, you'd say, man, this was a crazy year. If you look at this relative to other years, most years in the stock market are crazy.

[Michael Batnik]

Looks just like every other year.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, it really does.

[Michael Batnik]

Nothing to see here.

[Ben Carlson]

It's the same picture, right? Duncan will get that one.

[Michael Batnik]

Something to see here. What show is that from always on?

[Ben Carlson]

There was a Slack channel yesterday and I gave Duncan an Office reference and Duncan is a big Office fan and he got it right away and left. So I appreciate that. You never watched the Office, right?

[Michael Batnik]

I think I saw the first two seasons.

[Ben Carlson]

Think about the combined amount of hours you put into horror movies and you never watched Seinfeld or the Office.

[Michael Batnik]

I saw four seasons of Seinfeld. Yeah, but here's the thing. I can't catch. I don't have time to catch up on 60 hours of TV. That's why I'm watching the offer. It's one season. I could do that. I don't have time for 60 hours. How would I.

[Ben Carlson]

That's true. They're background shows, though. The thing is, they're 20 minutes without commercials. Those are 20 minute episodes, dude.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't have background time. I fall asleep in my bed in three minutes. It would take me four years to watch it.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, all right. You're right. You missed the window. Because I watched when it was happening. And then in throughout college, I watched every rerun of Seinfeld every night. Like it's constantly watching it, right?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. I'm not in college anymore.

[Ben Carlson]

We had so much time in college. Like, I feel like I probably wasted.

[Michael Batnik]

I had six years. I had. I had more time than you did and I 10x to that shit. I had nothing but time. I. I was manipulating time. You know that guy, the manipulating time guy, he was.

[Ben Carlson]

He. He has four days in one day, right?

[Michael Batnik]

The Wire, for example. I would love to see it, but it's not going to happen.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, see, I caught up on all of those shows, but pre kids, my wife and I binged a lot like Sopranos and the Wire and all that stuff.

[Michael Batnik]

So if you're 26 and you're listening and you want to get to some shows, don't put it off.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

Do it now, because one day it's going to be too late. All right. Kyle T tweeted. Oracle stock reacted better to the great financial crisis than it has the OpenAI deal. This is a chart. It's showing the drawdowns for Oracle. And in 2008, it fell. I can't even see. What does this say? 40%? Something like that.

[Ben Carlson]

I never would have guessed this in a million years. This is pretty nuts.

[Michael Batnik]

How interesting. Like the, the, the bookends of 2025 started with, oh, boy, AI is going to be a bubble, isn't it? Aren't we going to get a bubble? Isn't it? Isn't it? Is it not inevitable that we would get a bubble? I don't know if you said that, Ben, but I feel like you said it.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, like I said every, every other. Now the pushback here be. No, this is the bubble deflating. You don't get it. That already was a bubble. But that. Come on. That wasn't a bubble.

[Michael Batnik]

That wasn't a bubble. Stop it right there. No, no, hard stop. So Deutsche bank did a survey which, if any of the following, do you think posed the biggest risk to the market stability in 2026? And by far the biggest response, 57% said tech valuations plunge, AI enthusiasm wanes. Now, could happen. I don't want to be so cute and say, oh, if everybody's worried about it, then can happen. But I will say if everybody's worried about it, it probably won't happen.

[Ben Carlson]

I mean, usually the big risk is something that we don't see coming. But I, I guess you could say that sometimes it is like the most obvious thing. It, it just, that's what it is, right? I.

[Michael Batnik]

Sometimes it is, yeah, but like everybody's, everybody's already soured so dramatically on AI. Last week, Oracle, the FT reported Oracle's largest data center partner, Blue Owl Capital, will not back a $10 billion deal for its next facility. Concerns about rising. I mean, this is great. The market is like, the market is seriously pushing back, which I think is the best possible setup heading into 2026 and beyond.

[Ben Carlson]

I see this the, the second one here. New Fed chair pushes for aggressive cuts and causes market turmoil. I mean, that's just people like reaching for a risk.

[Michael Batnik]

I mean, come on.

[Ben Carlson]

What would, how would aggressive rate cuts cause market turmoil? I. That some of these other ones, I feel like these are just, these are made up.

[Michael Batnik]

So our friend Todd Son posed a question. He's showing the 10 largest weights of the S&P, and it's 40%. Okay, so he, he's. Todd said the question that we'd ask coming into 2026, is this what comes first, 50% or 30%? 50, I would agree. Now, I don't think either of those happen in 2026. It would have to be so dramatic.

[Ben Carlson]

That's a big move. You're right.

[Michael Batnik]

I mean, it would have to be, it would have to be them. Well, I guess you could do the math. I don't want to say what would happen.

[Ben Carlson]

I think that'd be like a three or four year, five year thing.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

But 30 wouldn't surprise me either. Someone asked me this question on Ask the Compound last week, and I put the chart in here because it took me some time to make this chart. I did the paint, you know, I put a line. I should have had AI do it for me, but it was like, hey, how should I feel if we had a 20 or 30% decline in the market? And where would that time travel me to? And it's kind of crazy. If we had a 30% crash from here for the US stock market, it would bring us back to January 2024. How did things in the market feel in January 2020? Right.

[Michael Batnik]

Frothy.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. Back then, people were worried. So if we had a 30, a 30% crash overnight, we had a 1987. It would bring us back to the start of 2024 with returns. And it doesn't seem to me like people were that unhappy in 2024. How unhappy would they be, though? Very unhappy. If that happened.

[Michael Batnik]

Yes. I say this every time we talk about this. If you told me that we would have a 30% decline and it would, like, stop there, I think most people could live with that. In fact, if you're an equity investor, you gotta be able to live with that.

[Ben Carlson]

That was my point is. And this person would say, hey, I'm still dollar cost averaging. That would have to be a good thing for me. Right? And I said, yeah, phenomenal.

[Michael Batnik]

Phenomenal. But the thing is, like, it doesn't work like that because if we fell 30%. Well, what if we fall 50%?

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. That'd be the worry. And that's what happened in 1987. People thought there was a depression. All right, bank of America has this chart. US mid caps trading at a PE of 15 versus an S&P 500 of 2022 or of 22. And this is the forward PE. And it's showing that this is about as low as it's been going back to the mid-90s. The relative ratio of the valuations. And is it. Is it too easy to say small and mid caps are the Next International in 2026. Right. International stocks, because the valuations were so low and it had all these, these things going, it didn't take much good news for international. It was a coiled spring. Right. Took off. Isn't that. Couldn't you make that argument for small mid caps too? Like, it's not going to take much for the valuations on these things being so much lower than the S&P 500 for them to outperform by a wide margin.

[Michael Batnik]

Sure could happen. But I think there needs to be a catalyst like people souring on the AI trade even further.

[Ben Carlson]

Don't you think the catalyst is lower rates though, because these companies got hurt by higher rates. Yeah, I think, I think this seems like almost too obvious to me.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, but if you look, if you look to, if you look at that line, yes, it is low, the lowest, I guess technically. But it's been at that.7 mark for three years.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, you're right, it's. But yes. And you could have said this for the last seven years. Essentially.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Anyway. What a year. What a year it's been. Did you know this might surprise you. I chart can make this more stocks doubled in 2025 than in any year since when. Take a guess when. And I honestly don't know the answer, so I'm going to reference this.

[Ben Carlson]

2017.

[Michael Batnik]

Good guess, good answer. How great is Family Feud?

[Ben Carlson]

I would have been awesome on that show. I used to watch it all the time. I was great. I always had the answers. It's true.

[Michael Batnik]

I feel like that's the type of show that everybody says that they're good at.

[Ben Carlson]

Then you get there in front of the lights and you freeze and forget.

[Michael Batnik]

I think I might be the person that chokes if I'm being honest. But here's what I'm. Here's what I'm genuinely, I'm talented at Wheel of Fortune.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I'm not as good as that. Like, for whatever reason I have the blanks. I don't do with that greater wordle and such.

[Michael Batnik]

I'm like Zach Galifianakis on Wheel of Fortune. I just, I see it.

[Ben Carlson]

So wait, what's the answer then?

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, good question. The answer is 2013. How about that?

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. Which was when the market finally hit new all time highs again.

[Michael Batnik]

13 stocks doubled. So 2017 was a. Was an interesting year. That was the year where it's just straight up until the. Right.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

No, no drawdowns.

[Ben Carlson]

There was like a two and a half percent drawdown. Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

Only three stocks doubled that year.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. So that was more of a stair step.

[Michael Batnik]

And in 2021, which was a mania, was it not?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

12 stocks doubled.

[Ben Carlson]

This is for the S and P. Yeah. Okay, so how many did this year so far?

[Michael Batnik]

13.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, that does seem like a lot, right? A double. That, That's a, that's a big number. Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

All right. We. We've spoken about this in the past how I. I personally feel mixed about giving a lot of money publicly, relatively. A lot of money. Right. To like, a GoFundMe type of thing. Because there might be, like, a perception that, like, you're trying to, like, flex or show off or something like that, which is kind of dumb if you think about it. Like, if you're just trying to give money for a good cause, you should give as much as you can. And now if somebody happens to get an ego boost out of it, whatever, we could psychoanalyze it all day long. But the bigger point is this. The reason why I feel comfortable and happy and proud to make those donations is a. It feels good. Personally, it feels good to give money, but there is an. There is an element of FOMO involved.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, I think it's a. It's a positive.

[Michael Batnik]

It's a great thing. And if your contribution encourages other people to contribute more to worthy causes, then everybody wins. And if some dingleberry thinks that you're doing it to flex, that's their problem. So anyway, why am I even talking about this?

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, so now, now is a great time of year to do this, though. And yes, this is one of the things that we don't talk about enough. And I always mention this. You can automate your. Your charitable giving. I do it on a monthly basis for like five or six charities. And I sometimes have to remind myself to increase the amount, but I do it and I set it and forget it. And sometimes you even forget you're doing it, But I think that's kind of thing where you dollar cost average into charity as well. I think it's a great. And they always tell us like, we. We appreciate these because they get a lot of gifts around the holidays. I get letters from these people sometimes saying we appreciate the automatic donations because the rest of the year we need money too. Not just around the holidays and these big bunches of. Because they get a ton of donations around this time, I'm sure.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, I'm glad you said that. See, the. The. The goodness is spreading. I am going to make that a priority for me in 2026 to give to more donation, give to more charities on a regular basis because I only give to one regularly, and that's definitely not good enough. Okay. Anyway, Ray Dalio said, my wife Barbara and I have believe strongly in the importance of equal opportunity. I have been fortunate to live the American dream. And he goes on to say, you know, how fortunate he is. So that's why Dalio.org is proud to join Michael and Susan Dell in sending and seeding an expanded number of the new Trump administration investment accounts, matching the $250 contribution per child for approximately 300,000 children in our home state of Connecticut. So that's a $75 million gift, which is obviously amazing. And you're seeing, like, more and more people are stepping up to the plate and doing this because they see other people doing it. They want to be involved. And it's awesome.

[Ben Carlson]

I like it. It was kind of like the Buffett thing. Remember he said, I'm going to give all my money away before I die. The Buffett challenge or whatever. And people hopped on board. I, for years have been pounding the table that one of the ways to help with inequality or at least help bring more people up is get more people involved in the stock market. So I think any way we can do this now? The thing is, there's a lot of people who hate billionaires for whatever reason, but then when they, billionaires actually do give their money away like this, then they still like, why are you giving it away this way? Like, I think this is, I think this is wonderful. This is a great cause. Even if people go, oh, $250 per kid, what is that going to do? So what? It's something. It's better than nothing.

[Michael Batnik]

I think this is great nonsense. But, but also it's, it's obviously not just $250, because think about the next billionaire that's going to see this and say, you know what, that's awesome. I want to get involved too.

[Ben Carlson]

And then guess what? Maybe the parents put 50 bucks a month in, you know, or the grandparents do, or whatever it is. Like, this is, this can build on top of it because someone got the first thing rolling. And I just think this whole thing of getting more people involved in the stock market is a great thing.

[Michael Batnik]

And it's also smart because these billionaires own a ton of equities and more money coming to the stock market just inflates our equities and makes inequality worse. And that's their whole master plan. It's great.

[Ben Carlson]

But imagine betting against the stock market when every single decade more and more people want get involved and can get involved because the Bears entry are being broken down. Imagine that.

[Michael Batnik]

I can imagine long term bear on the stock market, but that's the key. I can't imagine being a long term bear.

[Ben Carlson]

How could.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, from 1966 to 1982. Shut up.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

We know, we know, we know.

[Ben Carlson]

Right?

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. Speaking of stock market worth, households from Wells Fargo have more net worth in stocks than in real estate. Now this has happened before, so it's not totally without precedent. It happened for a minute in the late 60s. It happened during the dot com bubble, dun dun dun. And it happened, it's happened recently.

[Ben Carlson]

I think this could be one of those things that we in the past, you hit this point and then it went down. I think this could be the kind of thing where this one never goes back.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, I don't disagree. As toppy as that sounds, it's not impossible to imagine this gap getting wider.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And because some people are boxed out of the housing market, it's easier to invest in the stock market. This is the kind of thing I think we could see just this.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, guess what? I mean, the stock market can go up 20% in the next two years. Real estate won't.

[Ben Carlson]

No, no way. We had a once in a lifetime lifting of all boats for real estate. It's never happening again. Never ever, ever.

[Michael Batnik]

Here's another chart from our Fred Todd Pace of equity. That's Todd Stigus. Pace of equity ETF flows remains elevated. So he's got this cumulative daily equity ETF flows and it goes up every year.

[Ben Carlson]

And this is, this is kind of, this is kind of amazing that it continues to rise.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay, I know I keep saying this and it's sort of a rhetorical thing that I say. Where's the money coming from? It's coming from, it's coming from a few places. It's coming from wages obviously first and foremost. It's coming from four 1K rollovers.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, that's, I think that's the biggest one. I think baby boomers who are rolling over the four 1Ks are going to an advisor getting out of mutual funds.

[Michael Batnik]

Slash equity. Active mutual funds are finding their ways into etf. So it's, but it is, it's unbelievable. We've got about, about $1 trillion, not quite $900 billion coming into equity. Only ETFs in 2025.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, so this next chart is this. Does this help my small cap case or hurt it? So it says small cap's been left behind and helps it.

[Michael Batnik]

So this is total flows versus the, is that the 12 month change? Yeah, one year change. And the Russell is actually doing fine. Like I don't know what's up this year but it's, it's at all time high.

[Ben Carlson]

45% since the bottom in April. Small caps have been on fire since April. Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

And nobody wants any part of it? Yeah, I, I think, I think lower rates are an obvious catalyst.

[Ben Carlson]

So I think for what happened now, if you own like a VTI, you own some small cap stills, like 10% or something. But I, I think a lot of people in recent years have just said, all right, fine, just put me in a total stock market fund or an s and P500 and I don't need this other stuff. I think. But you're, you're right. So like if, if rates come down, some of these small cap stocks start seeing some help from AI and if money finally starts flowing in, that's the catalyst. That's three catalysts right there. What else do you need? I gave you three catalysts. Usually you get one that's three. What was the bottom in April? The eighth. See, usually, usually I have these things down.

[Michael Batnik]

The date April. Was it April 8th? I don't know. I don't know what the day was.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, for the bottom? Yeah. You don't know what the bottom was for this year?

[Michael Batnik]

The actual date?

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. Yeah, I think it was the fifth. So the Russell 2000 is up 46% since the bottom, which was April 8th.

[Michael Batnik]

Wow.

[Ben Carlson]

It's pretty massive, right? You're right. And no one cares.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, they also got hit the hardest. Right. What was, what was their drawdown?

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, you're right. And it took a long time for them to hit all time highs again. Yeah, yeah, right. The drawdown was bigger.

[Michael Batnik]

How much was it?

[Ben Carlson]

I guess it was, it wasn't that much bigger. It was 25 or so, 24, something like that. Okay. All right. So we talk a lot about how all the clickbaity headlines and the negativity and stuff like it feels bad and people want to blame the media, but mostly you should be blaming the people who are reading it. It's us. It's all of us, the collective we.

[Michael Batnik]

I blame you. You are such a, you can't, you're a clicker. You just, you see it and you gotta click.

[Ben Carlson]

So Morningstar, Brian Armor did this piece we're keep.

[Michael Batnik]

The kids are home today.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh. Oh, nice, nice PJs, dude.

[Michael Batnik]

Everybody is sick.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, we had that too.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay, so I, I, I got myself a flu shot the other day. And Robin goes, you didn't think to get your family one? And I said, I said, well, I told you that I was going to get one. And you seemed cop. Say hi. Oh, look at Kobe's teeth.

[Ben Carlson]

We got that too.

[Michael Batnik]

I said, I said, you, you seem disinterested. So you got. Damn right. I took care of myself. I listen. When you're on an airplane, you put your mask on first.

[Ben Carlson]

That's true.

[Michael Batnik]

If I, if I get sick, it's all over. I'm a baby. I can't be sick, man.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm hoping we're past the word. My kids still get colds all the time. We just had one in our house. But when our kids went through daycare, I went through a three year run where I was sick all the time. Just constantly something and I hadn't been sick in years. I feel like I'm finally through that.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, so. Clicks. I'm sorry.

[Ben Carlson]

So, yes, so we complain, but if people are reading it, they're going to keep doing it, right? And you have to blame the people who are consuming it. And I think that's the same thing with ETFs. We complain about this stuff like all these leveraged ETFs and these single stock ETFs. And guess what? That's what people want. An alarming. This is from Morningstar. They looked at all the new ETFs. It was a record year of 750 new ETFs. Roughly half of all new ETFs were strategies that track single stocks, derivative income, defined outcomes or digital assets. And an alarming 2027% of new ETFs build their strategy on a single stock and added leverage, short exposure or option overlays. So you complain about this stuff and say like people, these are weapons of mass destruction or whatever. People are going to blow themselves up doing this stuff. The volatility is crazy. You're putting three times leverage on a single stock. And guess what? This is what people want and the companies are going to give it to them.

[Michael Batnik]

I think as long as the products aren't like offensive. Right. Like some of the 90% yield products that are obviously getting people into products they don't understand. Other than that, I guess I just don't have a problem with it. People. People can buy what they want.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, exactly. But I'm saying, yeah, people complain about these things and this is what investors or traders want and they're going to do it.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. This is another blow your face 1. This is from Citadel via daily chart book. Households continue to hold near record cash balances. 98th percentile. Historically. This is going back to 1950. So yes, we had higher cash balances in the 1950s. But look at this. This is household cash as a percentage of total financial assets. And this thing since 2020 took off like a rocket ship. Now Obviously, it helps that interest rates rose, but in a bull market, would you have assumed that we'd have record amounts of cash? This. I looked at this chart and I said, there's no way this is true. This can't be true. This is crazy.

[Michael Batnik]

That's crazy.

[Ben Carlson]

Do you think a lot of this is. I don't know, some money came out of bonds. Like, I mean, that was the easiest trade of the decade, pretty much. If you went. If you decided bond rates were on the floor, I'm going to go to cash. And cash is yielding 5%. I'm not going to deal with volatility in bonds. You think that's part of it? Mm, I'm trying to.

[Michael Batnik]

Come on, what do you think? You think there was, like, any implications of this?

[Ben Carlson]

Like, well, they're trying to say this is dry powder, but I think this is just. I also think it was a decade of zero percent interest rates.

[Michael Batnik]

I still think cash was underfunded. Cash was underfunded. I think this money stuck. Not literally, but, like, it's not. I don't think. I don't think it's going to move.

[Ben Carlson]

But this is a percentage of total financial assets. So real estate had a huge boom in this decade, stocks had a huge boom, and cash still grew as a percentage of those assets. That's the surprising thing. Okay, you mentioned this before. The economy keeps growing. This is a little thing I pulled in Wall Street Journal. US Economy post robust growth in third quarter. Robust that. See, that makes you sound smart. If you say that GDP grew at 4.3% annually in the third quarter, and the economy keeps growing, and a growing number of people seem to just not believe it. This is the most hated economic expansion ever. It's not a close second. How many people would believe you if you said, yeah, the economy grew at 4.3% real in the third quarter. Bring that to your holiday dinner and ask someone, how much did the economy grow? Most people probably tell you it shrunk. Now, remember, this is on an inflation adjusted basis. How does this keep happening? The economy just keeps growing.

[Michael Batnik]

We ran a poll in our channel on YouTube about the debate we had last week or the question that we posed. Would you go back to 2019 wages if it meant 2019 prices? And it was about a 5050 split. Now we have an affluent audience, well above. Well above average income. And even still, it was 50. 50.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

So could you imagine if you pose this question to the average person, I think it would be like 80, 20 would want to go back.

[Ben Carlson]

And I Think, do we make the lost.

[Michael Batnik]

Did we make the lost joke last week, last time we did this?

[Ben Carlson]

No. What lost joke?

[Michael Batnik]

Like, we have to go back.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, no. One of the great reveals in television history for me. Blew my mind when that happened. I just think most people underestimate how much their wages have grown relative to prices. And I think the people who say that would. Would be hurting if we really did go back.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't think so.

[Ben Carlson]

If they saw their paycheck the first time they got their paycheck, they would go, oh, no, now we have to go back there to the future.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't think so. I think the psychological damage of inflation is so obvious at this point.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, so if I was more creative, I probably would have done this. And you know, the meme of the grim reaper going from door to door and then they put the thing that it killed. I should have done this. But. So I'm oversimplifying here, but let's say in 2022, AI started right as inflation peaked at 9%. AI kind of killed inflation or helped kill inflation, the spending. 2023, AI killed recession predictions. 2024, AI swamped the housing recession didn't matter. We had AI. 2025, it was tariffs. What's going to matter more, tariffs or AI? AI mattered way more. 2026, I guess it's AI versus labor market. Is AI just going to keep winning every year against these challengers?

[Michael Batnik]

When you say win, what do you mean by AI versus the labor market?

[Ben Carlson]

So I'm saying you had this bad thing happen in the recession that could have brought it down. Right. You had these things that are. These things that are happening, and it's like one of these is going to matter more. So we're either going to have a recession, this is going to slow the economy, or no, AI is going to keep propping it up. And guess what? This whole run. And again, I'm oversimplifying, that wasn't the only reason. But will AI just keep thwarting these.

[Michael Batnik]

Things through the lens of the stock market?

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, the economy. In terms of what's going to matter more like, yeah, the labor market is slowing, but why does the economy keep growing? And why does. Right. Everyone keeps talking about the labor market, the labor market, the labor market, the labor market. Guess what? The economy just grew 4%. So obviously it doesn't matter yet. The labor market hasn't mattered because of all this other stuff going on. Will AI continue to be the thing that just dominates?

[Michael Batnik]

Yes, and it'll matter more.

[Ben Carlson]

I Kind of think AI will probably keep winning.

[Michael Batnik]

Me too. Top, maybe.

[Ben Carlson]

So this chart from Charter shows that fears of recession. And I think to your point about this being a crazy year, this is Poly Market implied chance of a recession. In April and May, the chances of a recession, this was from Betters people putting their money on the line was almost 70%. And had we kept those tariff policies in place, I think it probably would have happened. So I think those fears were not out of line at the time, but it just shows how. And now it's almost down to zero.

[Michael Batnik]

I'm getting. So I'm getting involved in, in recreational prediction markets. I don't know why I said recreational. I think there's some value there, Ben. I gotta be honest. All right, so here, here's a, here's.

[Ben Carlson]

Here's some value in what? In predicting recession.

[Michael Batnik]

So here's your prediction that I made. I, I spoke about this with. I spoke about this with Vlad. And there is something in a better's brain, at least in my brain, okay? Where If I'm on FanDuel, I don't want to bet on things that are minus 500, right? I don't want to bet 500 to 100. That's terrible odds. But if you tell me that there's an 83% chance of something happening that I feel really strongly about, I say, whoa, that's a 17 free return. It's the same thing. So, for example, on Poly Market. Not on Poly Market, on Cal State, betting that the Seahawks won't win the Super bowl, okay, is 80. Is only 86 cents. I feel like that should be 97 cents, 98 cents. The Seahawks aren't winning the super bowl, by the way. It'd be hilarious if they do. But they're not winning the Super Bowl. Sam Darnold, get out of here. What are you nuts?

[Ben Carlson]

They used to play the Rams game the other night. That was pretty good. It was pretty fun.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, that's, that's why they had spiked. Okay? Did you see him last year? And the rest of his career either way, for $0.86 so I can get a 14% return that the Seahawks won't win the Super Bowl.

[Ben Carlson]

So you're trying to arbitrage here. You're trying to, like.

[Michael Batnik]

There's no arbitrage. It's just. I feel very confident that's going to happen.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay?

[Michael Batnik]

That's 14% free money.

[Ben Carlson]

So. Speaking of the gambling stuff, Kyla Scanlon has a piece for the Wall Street Journal. Why my generation is turning to financial nihilism. And she talks about how people in Gen Z, I guess I didn't realize this term by a podcaster, the financial nihilism. And it's like she says, to many people this lack of trust doesn't make any sense. Doesn't every generation have a financial struggle? Of course, each one adapts to the pressures of the moment. Post war America responded to the instability of the depression and war by building a world that promised stability. Suburbia de industrializing America answered the collapse of union jobs by elevating college degree. Every era produces its own response shaped by the opportunities and constraints of its own time. But the post war idea of upward mobility was always contingent on certain fundamental strong institutions, affordable education, accessible housing and stable work. Now those conditions are buckling. And she talks about how people are just gambling their faces off and everything. And I, I tend to think that this is not. There is some financial nihilism to this. I tend to think it's just the barriers have been broken down. Because if you gave me at age 18 the ability to gamble, I would have done it the first time I ever played blackjack. I may have told this story before. We were on a cruise and you could go in international waters, you, you could gamble at age 18. So guess what we did, my best friend Chris and I in high school. The first thing we did our senior year of high school went on a cruise ship. Everyone else went to go check out the pools. And the, we went straight to the casino. It was like 10 in the morning. There was no one in there in a deal. We sat down and a dealer literally taught us how to play blackjack. I was hooked. We were in the casino every night after that. Okay. My first taste of actual gambling. And I loved it. You know what the minimum bet was on this cruise ship when I was 18? $2.50.

[Michael Batnik]

Simpler times.

[Ben Carlson]

So, Ben, if I would have had access to this all the time at age 18, I would have in sports. Like I never got the ability to bet on sports. I didn't have a bookie or something. You couldn't bet. When I went to Vegas, you'd put like a one bet on a sports thing as like a novelty thing. The ability to do it now in your hands. I think that's it. I think it's just easier. And young people are going to gamble because that's. Young people like to take risks.

[Michael Batnik]

You know the, you know in Dumb and Dumber when Lloyd says to Harry, you are one pathetic loser.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, that was, that was Me and my 21st birthday on my 21st birthday, I was home by myself, kicked out of college. Robin just stared at me. Yes, it's true. You were there. And I had nobody to celebrate with. So what did I do? I drove. She's laughing. I drove to Atlantic City. I had maybe $400. I lost it all in under an hour. I turned around and I drove home.

[Ben Carlson]

No one, no one took you to.

[Michael Batnik]

The bar like in Swingers?

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, wow.

[Michael Batnik]

That's how I celebrate my 21st birthday. So I think.

[Ben Carlson]

How long does it take a drive to Atlantic City from.

[Michael Batnik]

Dude, it's not, it's not. It's not. It's not a short drive. It's three hours plus. It's not a short drive. I was there for 20 minutes.

[Ben Carlson]

Wow.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay, okay, so back to K this piece. Listen, she obviously spends a lot more time with young people than I do. So I don't want to be this out of touch, 40 year old saying whatever, yelling, this is her generation.

[Ben Carlson]

She knows it more than we do.

[Michael Batnik]

Because the unemployment rate for 20 to 24 year olds is rising pretty dramatically. I do think that there is a sense of hopelessness might be too strong of a word, but confusion, fears about AI and their job careers. That fear always exists. Now AI is a different level of fear, so I'm not discounting it. However, if there, if we're putting this into a pie, I would say that those fears are, I don't know, making this up 30% of it. But the other 70% is, as you mentioned, Ben, it's just easier. We had to jump through hoops to gamble, to bet on. To bet like it's fun. And is there a nihilistic portion of it? Yeah, sure. Is that the whole story? No, it's on your phone. Come on. It's so easy.

[Ben Carlson]

It's easy. It's. Yeah. So there's pros and cons. That's easier to invest in the stock market now. Good thing. It's easier to gamble, probably bad thing. There was this. We missed this. Last month there was a story in the New York Times and a bunch of people pulled the headline. It says, for Gen Zers, work is more now more depressing than unemployment. And it talks about how hard it is to find jobs and how people hate the nine to five. And what is the. This young group has literally never lived through a recession before. And the fact that they. They really hate life now in a. In a booming economy. I don't know what's going to happen in a recession.

[Michael Batnik]

Can I also say one more thing? I think that everybody has tapped into the fact that populism is really popular.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

Tell people that. Tell people that things are so bad and you're going to build an audience.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And people like to complain.

[Michael Batnik]

It's unpopular to say that things are generally okay, even if there's a lot of people suffering. Like, nobody wants to hear that message.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. And cue the comments. Ben and Michael are out of touch.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. Yeah. Where else? Oh, so Nate Silver had a piece on Vegas and he, he has an annual visitor volume and it's rolling over. And I don't think this says anything about the economy. I really don't. I think that foreign tourism is a bit, is a big contributor to this.

[Ben Carlson]

It's still relatively high. It came back a lot from COVID I mean, it's not like it, it's not like subways in New York or something.

[Michael Batnik]

No, no, it's, it's off the highs. Gaming revenues are up 1% year over year, by the way. But I don't think, and I also don't think that, oh, you could just bet on your phone. Like, that's why people don't go to Vegas. It's not the same thing. Okay. There's just nothing like sitting down at the table. That is an awesome experience. And doing that and betting on your phone is apples to submarines. Not the same thing. So I don't think that's the reason either. I think that the big reason is. Yeah, it is. It is super expensive. That's part of it. Travel tours. Travel has exploded.

[Ben Carlson]

There's way more cool places to go now.

[Michael Batnik]

Travel exploded. Post pandemic, there are so many more options to visit than just Vegas.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. I blame Instagram for this. Instagram makes it easier than ever to, like, look at the great cool places to travel. And there's like, Las Vegas is not that cool anymore. Compared to other places you can go.

[Michael Batnik]

There'S a lot more options. So I don't think that, I don't think looking at this line chart says anything about the economy. I really don't.

[Ben Carlson]

Also, my one complaint about Vegas, getting around that city is impossible. Walking from one, like, trying to walk one street and get around those loopy things and up the stairs and down the stairs and over here, it's impossible to navigate. You're like half a mile from something. It takes you four hours to get there.

[Michael Batnik]

That was annoying. So, all right, getting back to the cataly stuff and, and the prediction markets, which I, I, I told this to Vlad. I do think that it's going to grow dramatically because It's a small market, and I do. Then there's applications to it. But I think that. I think that the, the. Everybody is way too enthusiastic about the size of the opportunity and what sort of business ramifications this is going to have.

[Ben Carlson]

I think it's an. It's a niche thing.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, it's going to, it's going to grow because it's tiny right now. But I don't. I think everybody's. Well, I could be wrong. Anyway, the point is this. Right now, it's all sports. Look at this chart from Bloomberg. It's all sports betting. See this bar chart?

[Ben Carlson]

Yep.

[Michael Batnik]

All right. Nobody cares about. Now, the election was huge, obviously. But, but economics, crypto, other. Like. So, for example, for a couple months, for example, to bet on the pro football champion. I, I said, I told you. I said no for Seattle. Right. There's $61 million in volume there. That's a lot of money. $61 million. Now, the Warner Brothers, who will successfully take over. I bet on Paramount, by the way.

[Ben Carlson]

You did. Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

And I'm going to cash out. Like, I don't think that they're ultimately going to win the deal. Maybe they do, maybe they don't. But, like, I bought it at 25 cents, and yesterday on the, on the new deal, it spiked to 50 cents. But, Ben, look at the volume. So I looked on this. The volume was $196,000 before. And even like an hour into it, $4,000. $4,000 came into the market.

[Ben Carlson]

Let's see what I'm guessing. When you try to get it. And out of one of these trades, the spreads are huge because there's not a lot of liquidity.

[Michael Batnik]

Now it's $260,000, so a decent amount more came in. But it depends how much you bet. You. If you want to bet like 500 bucks on an illiquid thing. Yeah. You move the entire market.

[Ben Carlson]

You're trying to be like a quant with these betting markets. It feels like you're trying to find undervalued. You're not trying to find a winner or a loser. You're trying to find something that's undervalued.

[Michael Batnik]

No, no, no. I, I think that things that you think are like a sure thing. Well, there's two things. I mean, the Paramount thing to me seemed, at 25 cents, seemed way undervalued. But if I'm going to start using this and it's probably a waste of my time. In fact, let me take. Probably out is definitely not a good use of My time. I want to. I think the strategy that I'm going to have is things that I think are, like, sure things that have, like, an 85% chance on where you can make a 50% return. Like the Seahawks not winning the championship. Now, sure, it's possible, but, like, I'm pretty comfortable with the risk that they're not going to win the Super Bowl. I really have a hard time seeing that happening.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. Michael is shorting Seattle.

[Michael Batnik]

You're at your first shorting Seattle.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm a believer after watching them last week, maybe. All right, so I, you always say, like, don't, don't do your content to the comment section. Right. But I, I can't believe the overwhelming number of people every time I post something on inflation who just literally don't believe the inflation numbers. And they say, because my personal things and food at the grocery store. And we've, we've had these conversations, but this is, this is the reason why inflation is obviously in the ballpark. So Matt Klein has.

[Michael Batnik]

Wait, can I just say one more thing on that? I think that maybe it's. Maybe it's an element of people not believing, like, literally thinking it's fake. Like, obviously that there is a.

[Ben Carlson]

Well, there's a big distrust in institutions and.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, but there's also a cohort in there that says, listen, that might be the national numbers.

[Ben Carlson]

Right. But my personal. That's the thing.

[Michael Batnik]

But stop telling me that CPI is 3% when my costs of living are up literally 13 year over year.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah, of course. And also, people don't actually calculate their inflation rate. Let's be honest, how many people know what their budget is? Anyway, the thing that you tie it to, to know inflation is in the ballpark is wages. If you look over the decades, when you have high inflation, wages are high. When you have low inflation, wage growth is low. They track almost one to one. The wages are a little higher, but it's pretty close. So Matt Klein has this piece, and he says wage growth for the typical worker has been remarkably stable since April 2023, averaging about 4.1% at a yearly rate versus 2.9% before the pandemic, consistent with inflation. Inflation was lower pre pandemic. So is wage growth. Inflation is higher now. So is wage growth. Well, he's saying, listen, inflation has been stable about 3%, but wages been growing steadily at 4% per year. That's a pretty decent bump above the inflation rate. Wages are still high. He's saying, look, this is a, this is a pretty good situation. And this is one of the reasons if wages keep growing. So such higher inflation is not going to be 2%, it's going to be 3%.

[Michael Batnik]

Hmm.

[Ben Carlson]

How about this, though? This is Mark Dow. I kind of believe this. Mark and Cullen were having a back and forth on. On Twitter about inflation. Mark says, I think the whole structure of the modern economy has a disinflationary bias coming from productivity surges. Yes, many things, Covid, tariffs, whatever can push it around. But productive disinflation seems to be a gravitational force. I think he's saying technology. So do you think in 10 years people are going to go, wow, we were really worried about 1970s style inflation when the most deflationary force in the history of the world was coming on board. Like, I think people are going to look back at these 1970s predictions and go, you were really predicting 1970s down inflation when AI was coming.

[Michael Batnik]

I think, I think, I think the 1970s predictions were like, that wasn't like the consensus at all. There was a few num skulls that were saying that wasn't like.

[Ben Carlson]

I think there was a lot of people who said, like, this is it like government debt out of control, deficits out of control? Inflation was going to be out of control.

[Michael Batnik]

There were people saying that. But I don't think that, like, I don't think that that was like the overwhelming amount at all. It definitely wasn't.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I still see those charts that show like 1970s inflation.

[Michael Batnik]

Well, you know what? Because, because, yeah, Larry Summers said it true.

[Ben Carlson]

All right.

[Michael Batnik]

And then the media wrote about it.

[Ben Carlson]

I just think, I just think in 10 years we're going to go like, really? You thought inflation was going to say high when the most deflationary technology in history was being adopted? Anyway, that's my, that's my idea. All right, let's talk about. I didn't look at the Benedict Evans presentation. It's like 300 slides every year, right?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. What am I trying to show here? I pulled the chart earlier and I forgot what it is. All right. Basically, he's saying that only 5% of people are paying for the chatbots, which.

[Ben Carlson]

Is not surprising to me. So you said that paying $200 a month is magical, Right? And I know it's a difference going from $0 to $20, mostly because I was using it more. So I had to pay because otherwise it limits how much you can do it. But the point is not a lot of people are paying yet. This is why I can't believe OpenAI has not done ads yet. And maybe they will Eventually. But it seems like such a layup for them to do ads and make more money. No one is going to complain if OpenAI adds ads to the their.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, they def. I mean that's inevitable. Of course it will.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, so I did this thing I wrote about some of. I wrote about the benefits of reading something we talked about. And I posted a picture of my bookshelf behind me and all these books. And this guy, a reader, sent me this observation. Sometimes AI is just magical. So he said, I took the picture of your bookshelf. I put it into ChatGPT. It took every book on your bookshelf and categorize them by type. These are market books, these are psychology books, these are economic books, these are business leader books. And then it gave observations says you have a deep tilt towards markets, macro defense against mistakes and quantum thinking. There's a strong Jack Bogle, David Swenson, Peter Bernstein lineage. True behavioral science shows up often suggesting an interest in why investors fail or succeed. And it just pulled all this stuff by looking at a picture. It really is magical when you think about the stuff it can do. Like this.

[Michael Batnik]

Yes.

[Ben Carlson]

The guy's like, I wish he would have listed all the books. But guess what? I just put the picture in it. It did it for me and it categorized the books. Unbelievable.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. Speaking of financial nihilism and gambling, I should have put this up there. This is from the New York Times. States are raking in billions from slot machines on your phone. This is financial nihilism. Last year, Pennsylvania was collecting $105 billion in taxes from digital casinos compared to 188 million from sports book apps. And this is people playing online slot machines. Look at this chart.

[Michael Batnik]

So that is just depressing. It's bad enough when you're walking the casino floor and you see people just pulling the slot machines when you're doing it on your phone. That's, that's, that's, that's sad. Like, no, there's. Nobody is happy doing that. Right.

[Ben Carlson]

They interviewed this 57 year old home care worker. She said she'd never gambled until she downloaded casino apps during the pandemic. In the last few years, she's lost $15,000.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, can we just ban this mostly nobody machines. Nobody needs a slot machine on their phone.

[Ben Carlson]

So listen to this though. How addicted. She says her car was repossessed and she's facing facing eviction after missing rent payments. She says if, if they were to close down the site tomorrow, I would be mad because I couldn't do It. But it would helping me in the long run. This is a person who's being evicted from her apartment for gambling and is losing her. Lost her car and still said if they close this site down tomorrow, I'd be mad because I couldn't gamble anymore. This is financial nihilism playing. You're right. Playing slots on your phone.

[Michael Batnik]

That is depressing.

[Ben Carlson]

At least when you're in the casino, you know, you're around people. The noises. And remember we saw the online stuff at the casino at mgm, and we're like, who plays this stuff? Obviously, a lot of people. They show all these charts of Pennsylvania and Michigan and Jersey and Connecticut and how much money they're making from online casinos versus sports betting in it. The casinos dwarf it. That surprise. Would have thought it would be the opposite, for sure.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

All right. I got a little thing on crypto here you mentioned. Hey, moving. I moved crypto off of Robinhood, but it took me. They put a limit on it, right? A ceiling.

[Michael Batnik]

$5,000 a day.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. So I did that, too. And it took me. I had to set a reminder and do it. And it was. There was a limit. So it's interesting because tradfi. I hate that word, but that's what they call it. Tradfi is necessary for crypto to succeed, but it also takes away a lot of the benefits that crypto was created for. Right. This seamless transition of money. Right. You're supposed to be able to move it immediately. But the reason Robinhood put those. Whatever hurdles in place, those speed bumps, is because you don't want to accidentally send all of your money and it's gone. So you do it in little dribs and drabs or small pieces. And there's a reason for that, but it also makes it, like, not as easy.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. I mean, what's the point? Speaking of that, I'm going to lighten up on crypto on January 1st, if I can remember.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

I feel like I've taken enough gains this year not to brag. Yeah. I don't know what's happening with the price action. I don't know why I can't get off the mat. I feel like all of. All of the catalysts that investors were looking for happened. Like, I don't know what the next catalyst is. It just like, more institutional adoption, more people buying it, like, I guess so.

[Ben Carlson]

By the way, deregulation. You got the president who wanted it. You got all this stuff.

[Michael Batnik]

I am still going to hold a decent amount, but I feel like I'm Still, I still have way too much. So I'm not like, you know, bearish. I'm selling all of it. But, but yeah, I'm going to light it up and if it goes to 150, great. I don't care.

[Ben Carlson]

I still can't believe that I sold at 100,000 and it was over a year ago. And it's, it's what it's done since then, it's surprising. But the thing that people keep pointing to is, hey, it goes in these four year cycles.

[Michael Batnik]

Fine, good.

[Ben Carlson]

I, I can't, I just can't. I can't. Feel like you can find a pattern in an asset that's like 15 years old. I'm not ready to make that claim yet. All right, let's talk private markets. There's a lot to cover here.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. I want to give a plug. So we do a show for financial advisors called Talking Wealth. It is on its own feed, it has its own YouTube. And last week I interviewed Leila Kunimoto who is, has a, a substack called Accredited Insights that I subscribe to where she does an amazing job breaking down like what is actually happening under the hood. So there was a, a gnarly story that's been playing out over the course of the last couple of months with a private real estate fund called Blue Rock. What is it called? Blue Rock Private real estate plus what's total something or the other.

[Ben Carlson]

Anyway, here's the name is Blue Rock. Sounds like an SNL skip. It's not blackrock, it's Blue Rock.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, so Blue Rock launched in 2012 as a private fund and had redemptions for the last X number of quarters, a lot of quarters in a row. People wanted more, wanted their money back. The problem is there is a limit on how much money can be taken out of the fund. I think 5% a quarter. Okay, so if more than 5% of the net asset value wants its money, they can all have their money. So there was a vote. They said, all right, well here's another option. You can have the option to convert to a closed end fund listed on a stock exchange and boom, you will have liquidity. And when they did that, the shareholders voted overwhelmingly. Now you say to yourself, well, why did they, why did they do this? Two reasons. I mean, one reason. They wanted the money. Yeah, they wanted the money. Now they didn't know if you said, hey, you can have your money, but it's gonna, it's gonna be below, it's gonna be 40% below net asset value. Do you still want your money? Who knows? But that's what happened. So the net asset value was x. It traded 40% below x as a flood of sellers came in and said, give me my money back. And so I spoke to Layla about the ins and the outs of this and yeah, not great. Not, not great.

[Ben Carlson]

So my thinking on this is that. And Jason Zweig was all over this. He wrote a piece on it this summer talking about how this vote is coming and what if Nav is not like. I don't think he predicted it was gonna be this, but he was all over this. So with bigger pools of capital in these alternatives and way more money here, you're going to hear more and more of this stuff happening. Right. I don't think it should be shocking and should paint the whole industry with a wider brush, but if they want the Wealth Channel in this stuff, I think this, I think the evergreen structure is probably going to see some alterations over time, and I think it's probably not good for investors. I think people are going to say, listen, the longer our money is in, the more money we should be able to get out or something. There should be some sort of.

[Michael Batnik]

It should be, it should be first and first out. There should be like a reward for being an early.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. Because if you've invested in it for 10 years, but you're still locked on how much you can get out, like that doesn't make any sense. Right? There should be some. So they're going to have to change the structure a little bit. Or these, some of these companies have a lending facility where they'll borrow money to pay investors back or something. So don't have to sell the assets at a fair sale price. Right. So they're, they're going to have to do. Or they're going to have to say, hey, instead of 5% every quarter, it's going to be 10%. But what does that mean? You're probably going to have to hold more cash and that means lower returns. So they're. I think the Wealth Channel is going to push back against these structures when it happens.

[Michael Batnik]

I told you they should have gotten flu shots. Robin just came in and said somebody that we were with just has a flu. Don't. I'm good.

[Ben Carlson]

We'll see how long this lasts. You're gonna be sick at Disney next week. You guys better all get healthy before Disney. So anyway, I think you're hear more and more of this stuff. It doesn't mean that everything's bad, but I think the Wealth Channel is going to get Very annoyed by this stuff. If and when they want their money, like, hey, we want to rebalance, give us our money back, we can't have it. What. So I think even though this is all laid out ahead of everyone knows this is a structure.

[Michael Batnik]

Advisors definitely should know better. I mean, come on.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes, I agree. So well.

[Michael Batnik]

But I also think that this is probably specific to a certain type of asset. Like private credit is in all the headlines. Listen, these are loans that are marked at a discount to par for the most part.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

Like, I don't think that there is going to be. I think this is going to be less common in private credit where it's like, holy cow, this book of loans is worth 40% less. Like that seems unlikely.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. This is the story with real estate.

[Michael Batnik]

We've had this for something like real estate. Yeah, I could see that. Absolutely.

[Ben Carlson]

So the Wall Street Journal had this, had a piece about how the BDC is starting to turn ugly and they talking about the discount. Like the discount in a closed end fund is nothing new. But they look at these, these BDCs and look at the discount to NAV and you're getting some big ones in these KKR funds and blue Owl. And what are you thinking here, man? Because I feel like you were kind of bullish on these companies before. I think you turned around and gave up a little bit. But like, are you stepping in to buy some of these things?

[Michael Batnik]

I bought more Blackstone a couple weeks ago. What? Like when it was getting pummeled. So I think, I think the, the Blue Owl story is. And I said, I did say a couple weeks.

[Ben Carlson]

I'd be very scared of them.

[Michael Batnik]

I, A couple, a couple of weeks ago when there was talk about the conversion that the shareholder. By the way, this is a very important point. I'm glad you mentioned this. The shareholders rejected this. You know why? Because I think that the intermediaries here, not. I think it's financial advisors that said we, we're not doing this.

[Ben Carlson]

Right.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't know who blue box investors are. Right. Like I don't know if that's more of a retail oriented group, but I think the Blue Owl is in the epicenter of this because not only was it the BDC conversion that spooked investors, it's the, they're the biggest lenders, the hyperscalers that are turning south. I am not part. So Apollo is pulling in the reigns. They're saying like we're, we're turning a little bit cautious. I am not. And I'm making this up because I don't know, like, I'm not like a loan expert, obviously. I do not think that 2026 is going to be the year of all of these loans go sour.

[Ben Carlson]

I, I just think that the. Everyone keeps saying this is coming to the Wealth Channel. This is coming to 401ks. I think there's going to be way more pushback. I think this is. If private markets want to be involved in these things, I think it's going to take way longer than they assume. I think advisors are going to be pushing back against this stuff and so are clients. The adoption is, the curve is going to be very slow. That's my. Anytime one of these stories happens, I.

[Michael Batnik]

Think it's going to be a little like. Yeah, frankly, I've never heard of Blue Rock until the story Blackstone is reporting.

[Ben Carlson]

It's surprising that they've been around for 12 years and I've never heard of it either.

[Michael Batnik]

Blackstone is reporting record flows. All right, so I do, I do think that investors, advisors need to be super careful and subscribe to LEA substack. Like she goes through like the distribution yields and the leverage and all of these red flags that you really understanding.

[Ben Carlson]

Your time horizon too. Like these, these are long term investments. These are not short term investments.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I asked you this before and you said, no, no, no, save it for the show. Which you say to me all the time. So we are going to Arizona to get out of the cold. We're going with a friend, a group of friends, my daughter's friends, and we're friends with the parents. We're all going to be one house. So we'll see how that goes with six kids running around. But it's a vrbo. It's a nice house. It's got a pool and everything. And five days before we're going, they say, hey, if you want the pool heated, it's going to cost extra. And I've never knew this up front. I said that seemed kind of excessive.

[Michael Batnik]

That's crazy.

[Ben Carlson]

How much do you think per day they charge you to heat a pool? Now, just so you know, I was blown away by the amount per day.

[Michael Batnik]

To heat the pool. 200 bucks.

[Ben Carlson]

$100 a day.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. Nuts.

[Ben Carlson]

Isn't that crazy?

[Michael Batnik]

Yes.

[Ben Carlson]

Anyway, I, that seems a little bit of nickel and diming. All right. Permission to get sentimental real quick?

[Michael Batnik]

Sure.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

I love it. You know, I love, I love tears. Big tear guy.

[Ben Carlson]

So I just wanted to share this story. It's been a few months, so when I, when my brother passed away, I Must receive Thousands of messages, DMs, emails from people. And I feel like I never really probably shared my appreciation enough. But I think one of the times on the show I said, like, I'm getting these emails sharing people pouring their heart out from strangers. And a couple people emailed us and said, hey, we've been listening to you guys forever. You don't feel like strangers to us. Which was cool. Anyway, so I got a bunch of good stuff and then I don't know, the whole, the way I explain the whole grief process is that it's like my personal vix was at an all time high this year and that meant higher highs and lower lows. Like, there was times when I was like, my, I couldn't. My emotions were, you know, I'm a pretty contained guy. There was times when I was just. I was way higher or lower than I usually am and I could feel it. And I'm thinking like, this is not. But it was, you know, that stuff. But anyway, so probably like, I think the way I explained grief is like, it felt like a black cloud hanging over you. You know, it was like this dull. And then you had told me, like, listen, the hardest part is gonna be when people, everyone else moves on and you still feel it, right? But like, so like six months afterwards, like I felt like I was in a good place and like for some reason I had a really bad week. Six months afterwards I just had a bad. All this stuff flooded back and I got like a DM and an email from the listeners. Like the same day, the same week I was having just. I was having a. Just an off week. I just, I just. The feelings were back and someone just emailed and said, hey, I'm thinking of you. Like two people. And it was like, whoa, just like out of nowhere when I needed it. And it was. Anyway, I never, I think I never like just shared enough appreciation for that. But it was, that was like I got a DM and an email the same day from two different people.

[Michael Batnik]

When did that happen?

[Ben Carlson]

So this is probably July or August. Again, six months after it was just like, hey, I'm sure you're still going through it and this is probably people who had lost someone. So like, and like, you know, like you said, people move on. And like, and like for whatever reason, I just had a really bad week and someone sent me like, hey, I'm thinking about you. I'm sure you're still going through it.

[Michael Batnik]

Why are you bringing that up now?

[Ben Carlson]

I'm just saying thanks. I never said thanks. And I don't think I shared enough appreciation. I was just thinking about, like, going. Thinking about the year, and it was obviously a very hard year for me. But, like, that kind of stuff, like, was it really, you know, the whole, like, humanity and people, like the. I just. It was really. Anyway, I just wanted to say thanks to those people.

[Michael Batnik]

Yes, yes. The world moves on much quicker than you do.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. But that. That kind of stuff helps, though. Anyway, love it.

[Michael Batnik]

All right, well, thank you for sharing that. That's awesome. Okay. All right. So I saw this tweet from Deadline. Matthew, how do you say this guy's last name? Is it Rise or Rise? The guy from the Americans and the beast in me is in talks with Netflix over adaptation of Robert Caro as the power broker.

[Ben Carlson]

And now look at this next one. Presumed Innocent season two begins filming. Look who's in the background of that picture. This is going to be your worst take. It's Matthew Rise. He's going to be in Presumed Innocent season two.

[Michael Batnik]

What was Presumed Innocent season one?

[Ben Carlson]

That was Jake Gyllenhaal. It was pretty good.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, I love that show.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah. He's going to be. I don't. So it's a new cast. Maybe.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay.

[Ben Carlson]

But this guy's everywhere. And that. I think that's your worst take of 20, 25. That this guy was overrated.

[Michael Batnik]

No, I didn't say it was overrated. Well, if he was rated high, then I guess. Yes, I would say that. I just didn't care for him.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I. I think it was good enough.

[Michael Batnik]

So do you remember one of the audiobooks I'm listening to? I can't remember if it was which. It doesn't matter. TV Guide. Do you remember TV Guide? The physical TV Guide in, like, grocery stores?

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

So for people that literally used to.

[Ben Carlson]

Look through those to see what was on.

[Michael Batnik]

So there was a daily magazine that showed you what was going to be on TNT and USA later, and you were like, awesome. I watched shawshank for the 90th time.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

And then it moved to channel 14.

[Ben Carlson]

Yeah.

[Michael Batnik]

Where in order to find out what was on tv, you just.

[Ben Carlson]

But you'd have to wait for it to scroll. It would just scroll.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. You're like, I just missed it.

[Ben Carlson]

You had no control over it.

[Michael Batnik]

Give it another three minutes. Ben. I saw Avatar last night.

[Ben Carlson]

Oh, okay. I'm surprised. So, okay. What do you think?

[Michael Batnik]

So have you.

[Ben Carlson]

Did you see the other two in theaters?

[Michael Batnik]

Actually, the first one. No.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I saw it in 3D and actually my wife came in with a Headache. But that was the only movie I ever saw in 3D, is the first one.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. There was like a six to eight minute trailer for the Odyssey. And you know, I like to raw dog it. I'm not a trailer guy. I don't feel like I need to see a trailer for the Odyssey.

[Ben Carlson]

Are you all in?

[Michael Batnik]

Dude, they showed like the Trojan horse scene. I was like, hello. Like, save it for the movie.

[Ben Carlson]

Too much. Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, but. Oh my God, it looks unbelievable. It was, it was like. It was a big scene.

[Ben Carlson]

Wait, can I just give you my. Without seeing Avatar yet, here's my, my concern. I really enjoyed the first two. I saw them both in theater. I really liked them. People keep saying, like, Avatar has no pop culture reference because no one talks about it ever. But they're like two of the biggest movies ever. And I really liked both of them. I'm concerned that the third one is going to be overkill because how much more war stuff can you do? Is it the same story? That's my concern.

[Michael Batnik]

Okay. Yes. There are lots of similarities between 2 and 3 and I loved it.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh my God.

[Ben Carlson]

Still like it.

[Michael Batnik]

Speaking of, like you said, AI is magic. Like, I don't. Obviously I don't like. Did this movie cost like $16 billion? Like it costs a lot. How does he make these? So I saw it on IMAX 3 day, of course. And it was, it was, it was. I saw it at seven because it's. It's like three. It's three hours plus. It is long. And yes, there are. Obviously there's fat. It doesn't need to be three hours plus. I wish it weren't. I would have been very happy if it was two and a half hours.

[Ben Carlson]

But it feels like an event though, to see that kind of movie. I will to the theater to see it.

[Michael Batnik]

It is an event. It is spectacular. There's nothing like it. If he stops. If he stops making them, I'd be perfectly thrilled. I. I definitely don't need to see another one.

[Ben Carlson]

Obviously James Cameron is the man, but.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh my God, it's so good. It. Okay, it is.

[Ben Carlson]

I'm kind of surprised to hear you say that. Okay, that's good. I feel better about going to see it now.

[Michael Batnik]

It is so good. And I love the second one and I love the third one. And yeah, it was very similar, but I don't care. I loved. I loved it. I really did.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay, good. So wait, so you're. You IMAX 3D. So you have to wear the glasses still?

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay.

[Michael Batnik]

It's unbelievable.

[Ben Carlson]

All right, Any other recommendations or is that it?

[Michael Batnik]

That's it.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. I got in my new audible, I got into the Cameron Crow memoir called the Uncor.

[Michael Batnik]

Oh, that's on my list. Good.

[Ben Carlson]

So he was. He was on the Rewatchable. So I listened to it. I mean, he's obviously one of the most interesting. He's one of the most interesting people ever. And it feels like. It kind of feels like you're. It's a prequel or like an addition to Almost Famous because. And I mean, this is a guy who created two of the best movies of the past 30 years, right? Jerry Maguire and Almost Famous. And he also was writing for Rolling Stone at age, like 15 and went undercover and wrote Fast Times at Ridgemont High. This guy, he's one of the most interesting people ever. And he reads the book, so it feels like he's telling you his life story and you can get a sense of him reading the book. I mean, he just. He puts so much feeling and emotion into it. You go, oh, I can see why this is one of the great movie filmmakers of this century. Because the way he tells stories, he's such a great storyteller. It's even like the most mundane. But his whole family background, it almost feels like his life was a movie. And you can see how he made Almost Famous because it's like, God, this guy's life sounds and feels like a movie. Growing up in the 60s and the 70s and growing to all these concerts. And it's very, very good. I'm really enjoying it. I'm happy to hear. So I went into a little John Cusack moment the last couple weeks because they did High Fidelity on the Rewatchables.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't like that movie.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. One of my. All time, one of my favorites of this. I've rewatched that movie dozens of times.

[Michael Batnik]

I still remember, you know. Cause maybe I only saw it once. I think that's probably rewatchable.

[Ben Carlson]

It's very, very rewatchable. And the first time I saw it, I had no idea who Jack Back was. And when he sang at the end of the movie, I was blown away when he sings let's get it on or whatever. But then they did the sure thing because Rob Reiner passed away. And that was another one of his. So I watched that. And then I got into Grosse Pointe Blank again, which is a great Michigan movie because it takes place in Grosse Pointe, Michigan. And I don't know if you've ever seen this, and maybe not in Michael, but it's John Cusack and Joan Cusack and Dan Aykroyd's in it and Jeremy Piven and it's just such a 90s Minnie Driver. It's such a 90s movie. Gross. Point blank. It's about a guy who goes back to his high school reunion, but he.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah, I never saw it.

[Ben Carlson]

But he is a. He's a contract killer, so he kills people for hire, but he goes back to his high school reunion. And it's the kind of movie where you see the tone of it and you go, oh, that's a 90s movie. For some reason, the tone of the 90s movies, they were just. There's something. They were just so, like light and airy and free and easy. And even though it's a movie about a guy who kills people, it was still kind of tongue in cheek. And it's just a. It's a total 90s movie. A movie that only gets made in the 90s and not today.

[Michael Batnik]

We forgot to talk about Rob Reiner last week. Obviously. Horrifically tragic and just worst thing ever. That run of. I can't remember the order. Was it a Princess Bride? Whatever. The order was Princess Bride, Harry Met Sally, A Few Good Men, Spinal Tap and Misery. Are you kidding me?

[Ben Carlson]

Stand By Me.

[Michael Batnik]

Stand By Me. That's right.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. I haven't seen Spinal Tap for some reason. That's. For some reason. And I like those mockumentaries.

[Michael Batnik]

That's not my genre, but whatever. The other ones are just. I mean, I think Princess Bride, so I haven't showed that to Kobe yet.

[Ben Carlson]

But I've shown that to my kids multiple times. That's one of my favorite movies of all time.

[Michael Batnik]

It's. I think that's like unanimous, right? Like, if you don't like that movie, you just stop. Just. What are you doing with your life?

[Ben Carlson]

Yes. That. That is one of my all time favorites. I love it. Okay, we'll be back next week. I'll be responsible somehow, some way. We'll see if you can. You can manage.

[Michael Batnik]

You know, I saw. I saw Baltunas and Economic Talk tweeting about somebody. Somebody shared a picture of the Magic Kingdom at night with all the fireworks. And I remember that when I went the first time, I was like, oh, boy, I'm not looking forward to that. It's just there's so many people. But I was thinking, what are they? Not one of the. One of. There are not a lot of people at Disney.

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

And there is a capacity, right?

[Ben Carlson]

Yes.

[Michael Batnik]

And obviously during the holidays, they're at 100%. They sell it every ticket. And I'm guessing that it's always above 90%. Maybe. I don't know. Maybe it dips.

[Ben Carlson]

But, like, are you doing one of the holiday party things at night or not? Like, there's a holiday.

[Michael Batnik]

I don't think so.

[Ben Carlson]

When we were there, we did. It was an extra ticket that you go in at, like, 7:00, and there's an extra holiday thing at night, and everything is lights and I don't know. But yeah. Yeah. Disney's always packed. It's never, like, not full.

[Michael Batnik]

Here's what we're not doing. Not spending $150 ahead on the buffet. The character buffet.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. We. We didn't do any character dinners or lunches this time either. And the kids didn't seem to care.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah.

[Ben Carlson]

Okay. It'll be fun. I've always been a Disney hater. And everyone and I think, I can't wait.

[Michael Batnik]

I love it. It's the happiest place in the world. Come on.

[Ben Carlson]

And then Epcot's great because it just grab a beer every stop. That's wonderful. All right. Merry Christmas to everyone. Happy holidays, and thank you for a great year. We'll still be here one more time.

[Michael Batnik]

Yeah. It's not over yet. [e-mail] we'll see you next time.